>> dickerson: welcome back. joining us now is cbs news director of election, anthony salvanto. we're going to try to map out the next week. let's start first, one thing i found interesting in the poll was john kasich challenging trump in ohio doing much better than rubio in his home state of florida, why is that? >> one is home state advantage one may be disadvantage. in ohio say economy is good and kasich has sky high approval ratings as governor. that's an advantage. but comparably in florida rubio's approval rating as a senator are mixed. even among republicans he's got lower numbers than rest of the candidates on being prepared to be president and that's essentially the difference. >> dickerson: all right. let's talk about ohio and florida. big winner take all states next week. let's go through some of the scenarios here. it seems like for the moment

given where donald trump has been the question is, is he going to get enough delegates to get the nomination or will he go to the convention with maybe a lead in the delegates but have been stopped. let's walk through some of the scenarios. first, in ohio and florida let's say trump wins both, what's next? >> i think he becomes all he would have to do from there with the delegate lead in hand coming out of tuesday is keep winning and keep winning delegates. at the same pace at which he has been. i think the map ahead actually favors him in his ability to do that because you look at the states coming up and they have more of the kind of voters that donald trump has already been winning you get your blue collar republicans. you've got your suburban republicans, he's been doing well with those groups and fewer of the kind of voters in the kind of areas that ted cruz has been winning. we're headed through the northeast. we're headed through the west. pennsylvania, new york, et

cetera. that should advantage trump in being able to keep that pace. >> dickerson: if he wins those two states it will suggest all these attacks against him that they're just not working and so they be unlikely to suddenly work in the remaining states. let's now look at beginning of glimmers of hope which to say that trump loses one of those two states. what does it look like then if he only wins one of those? >> i think that is a glimmer of hope for folks trying to catch him. but it depends also who he loses to. if he loses to kasich in ohio, that is very competitive race be seen -- that's a home state win for kasich but where else does he go. kasich still trailing him in delegates. rubio happens to catch him in florida, same thing. rubio is going to be behind him in delegates probably will be coming out of the tuesday. other thing that the rules going forward from these states actually advantage the winner to even greater degree than they already have. they hand out more winner take

all delegates, even by region or district and so the difference between the leading candidate and the trailing candidates actually historically tends to open up. >> dickerson: so in that case, if trump only won one of those, he would have to do a little bit better than he's doing to get the magic number? >> he'd have to pick up the pace a little bit. have to pick up the pace, just a little bit. because he coop that lead. now, if he does and heads into places like pennsylvania like new york those other states then tries to build on that lead, he wouldn't get there quickly, it might go deep into may but he would still be on a trajectory to get there. >> dickerson: quickly he loses both what happens then? >> he loses both, that's a lot of people want to stop him try to at the convention i think. there is at least one advantage out of this. voters do tend to try to wrap things up as we get deep into the process, do tend to try to consolidate. but if he loses both then some

of that luster of being a winner certainly comes off. he certainly has tougher road ahead because, let's not forget other states voting, north carolina, the missouri, if ted cruz were touchier repick a couple of those, now cruz could make up some of the difference. >> dickerson: cruz is closest to him at the delegates. >> so let's not forget those, they have more in total just that we're focusing on ohio and florida, rightly because they're the big winner take all prizes but there's lot more delegates out there. watch for cruz to try and at least cut in to that trump lead and if trump does happen to drop both ohio and florida now we get competitive. now we could this thing go deep into june. >> dickerson: well, we'll be asking you all the way along the way, anthony, thank for helping us out. we'll be right back.

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one totally focused on what's next for your business. the true partnership where people,technology and ideas push everyone forward. accelerating innovation. accelerating transformation. accelerating next. hewlett packard enterprise. >> dickerson: we're back with our panel. peggy noonan a columnist for the "wall street journal." jeffrey goldberg writes for the atlantic. and nancy cordes covers congress. and democratic presidential candidates for cbs and michael duffy is the deputy managing editor "time" magazine. peggy, what do we make of -- [ laughter ] lot to go here. what do you make of the rallies in the last couple of days and

how much has donald trump contributed or not contributed to this at all. >> seeing the past few days, especially last night in chicago, the disruption, the yelling, the pushing, the violence surrounding the donald trump rally and inside, even though he wasn't there he cancelled he said for safety reasons. i think there are two big reasons this is happening and one victim group ha hasn't been mentioned. two reasons it's happening, trump is cavalier and careless in his references to punch him in the nose. i wish i could punch him in the nose. if you punch him in the nose i'll pay your bills. that's been. that's immature. that's not knowing that america is always a country when it's gathered and political passions can start throwing punches. that's the first part. second part is, there are

anti-trump groups that are opportunistically moving on the fact that he's given them this opening with his wild statements. they are coming in. they're causing their own havoc and pushing people around. that's not good. we always have to remember, this is america, you have a right to come together. you have right to have rally, right to free speech to gather. it zooms to me a forgotten victim group here is the peaceful people who want to go see donald trump and get him unfiltered get a sense of who he is, decide who they're going to vote for. they must have been frightened last night. they saw people pushing and tearing plaque cards out of each other's hands, it's auto bad. i know people have gone to trump rallies, they are curious want to get a look. >> dickerson: the "washington post" has a question, has donald trump lit a fire that now can't be contained. what is your sense of that? >> containment not word that

anyone would use to describe this election so far i don't think we should start expecting. but i don't think any of us know watching that tape offer the weekend, all of the tapes, seems to be new one every couple of hours, reminded of we all live in different places now. it's odd that we're now deciding to come together at trump rallies. that seems like maybe not the best place. that the country needed nor 20 years that's what's happening. two basically frightened groups of people. the trump supporters are scared of losing their livelihood and not really familiar yet, fully maybe owning what we call multi-raral society. they're concerned about the second amendment. the protesters who are generally nonwhite come from different part of the country and are concerned about how will the rhetoric of donald trump is spewing help themselves and their kids assimilate. both sets of real genuine fears.

they are being met at these rallies, that is a scary combination. >> dickerson: a volatile pace. donald trump suggested there may be new meeting place for these two groups at the bernie sanders' rallies. going to send over to -- >> that was, i thought maybe we'd be deescalation, i'm naive, obviously. i didn't read the tweet first i got e-mail from a friend of mine in egypt who told me about the tweet, be careful bernie or my supporters will to go your rallies. and my friend from egypt set, welcome to the middle east. because this is the way politics is done in other parts of the world. we don't like the way politics is done where people are sending gangs of their supporters to other people's rallies to break them up and make violence. there is a real fear now that these things are going to escalate. people are meeting at these rallies, someone is going to get seriously hurt and among other things we're not modeling good behavior for the rest of the

world that looks to america for political maturity. >> as peggy might put it that would be bad. gone to number of bernie sanders' rallies they are pretty peaceful affairs like eagles concert where everybody knows the words. and they show up ready to sing. that's a great analogy as well they're bringing lot of these little kids because these are pretty laid back affairs. suddenly you have them clashing with fired up trump supporters. that could be -- >> dickerson: may be losing ourselves in the metaphor. jeffrey mentioned decays lakes which we had seen earlier in the week there was debate that looked like -- everybody john kasich mentioned thought they were all pretending to be him, so nice and civil. what did you make that have? >> well, the calm before the storm, among some of the candidates together they could not continue down the road that

previous debate had been just out of control. but then they go back to their separate campaign events people say things they shouldn't say. trump followed that with that remarkable line about islam hates us which was within 24 hours of the debate. that was astonishingly incendiary reckless thing to say, add that we're going to need someone lot more sensitive to that kind of way of speaking as leader whether you're nominated or not. reminder that some republicans according to -- do expect prudent talk about religion they prefer it. it's just going to be something that we have to live with i think with trump until he decides, whatever reason to change the way he's campaigning. >> two quick points, there is regret, i think on the part of marco rubio that he accelerated that process by responding. the other thought i was having last couple of days is that, wondering who is the senior figure, who could straddle all -- is it colin powell who needs to come out simply say,

you know, what we simply cannot talk about, for instance, is islam, the way we're talking about it in this campaign because this is dangerous for the united states. and i don't know who that figure or group of figures is, but there's kind of need for it at this point. >> dickerson: i don't know if that person exists, peggy, because that person would be in the establishment, or be -- that immediately makes them suspect to all of the people who are creating the energy in the party. >> it would have to be a person of grave respect to the left, right and middle would listen to knowing they weren't pursuing an agenda but trying to look out for america. we've torn so many people institutions down in past few decade i'm not sure who that would be. let me throw question to you, mike, some times when trump says things like, islam is our enemy or whatever exactly it is that he said. islam hates us. does he know what he's saying? i mean, he could say, look,

there is a portion of radical jihaddist growing islam which has appealed to young people which is violent they appear to hate us, you can't just say islam hates us. so imprecise i think he's intelligent many doesn't he say it the right way? >> the question you've asked in your column, what does he really think. ben carson when he endorsed trump something i don't think all of us would have predicted there are two donald trumps, no, there are about 22. or maybe 200. right after yes, there are two trumps there seem to be two trumps about the question of whether there were two trumps. he's such a salesman. he's talking now about unifying the party. i think he's done so much damage with his rhetoric no matter how much vodka you put on the dias going to be hard to unify the

party around him as he continues to -- >> i think it's interesting that marco rubio starting to say that the things that trump had said are making it more difficult for him to continue -- >> right at the glenn that he will support the nominee. the problem for him is, what does that mean if you don't support republican nominee that means you support bernie sanders or hillary clinton or sit it out what does that mean for all of your republican senate and house candidates and everybody down the ballot in november. >> dickerson: that sense of unpredictability. you mentioned marco rubio, let's watch, actually, a moment of anguish of marco rubio talking about this. >> i mean, i already talked about the fact hillary clinton would be terrible for this country. but the fact that you're even asking me that question, i still at this moment continue to intend to support the republican nominee. but getting harder ever day. >> harder ever day. >> that was real moment. that was a real --

>> dickerson: whether he'll support donald trump. >> that seemed like a real moment of -- he's ashen. real moment of anguish. and i would based on that i'm led to believe that he could not in good conscious support donald trump. not do a chris christie. >> they're all thinking about november and their v but thinking about their own reputations beyond november. >> like to think that they're -- also like to think it's -- their own souls in america. >> they're trying to figure out what is the best thing to do here. i thought marco rubio looked shocked by history. sort of ashen indeed, and just surprised at how things are turning out. >> we're all surprised been history at the moment. >> dickerson: let's switch to democratic history. nancy, what happened in mr. mesh, how big a deal that sanders beat clinton? >> put a dent in her inevitability and shift gears starting to using on the general

election. have to spend more money than she probably wanted to in these primary states. it showed that the issue of trade is bigger than probably even the clinton campaign thought it was. in a manufacturing state like michigan and that is really a centerpiece of the bernie sanders campaign that free trade is killing jobs. she also focused in michigan as she has in other states in boosting african american turn out and it's true she did very well among african americans but no, sir well where she wins like 09% of african americans, there aren't enough african americans in the state like michigan to put her over the top. >> she lost 30% of african americans in michigan which is a danger point number for her particularly as democratic races go north and to the midwest to the west coast because nonwhite populations are much smaller there. nancy mentioned these states are going to be more friendly to more liberal candidate.

your poll fascinating, sappedders is ahead in her home state. >> how people are going to win their home states. >> the polls had her 20 up in michigan still lost. >> you also made the point that sanders lives off the land. he can go and go and go. this is not a high cost. >> we may have gotten to the point this week that democratic race is beginning to elongate. >> is she really, however, i'm curious, is mrs. clinton really scared right now or is this just a pain in the neck that she's going to have to play out? is she scared? >> i can't speak to her state of mind. but she's clearly insider in year that is so favoring outsiders. and when you have trump and sanders threatening -- >> don't forget about her experience. >> she must be getting sick of the -- >> more frustrated than scared.

you're right. she said this week i've gone all the way to the end before so i can do it again but it's clearly not the way that she would hope that this would -- >> dickerson: not message of joy. thanks to all of you. jeffrey will stay with us to talk about his interview with president obama so please stay with us.

>> dickerson: we're back with jeffrey goldberg of of "the atlantic" who has cover story in this month's magazine, amazing piece. i want to start with -- talking about president obama and foreign policy legacy. the red line on syria is considered by some people even senior people in his own administration, a big mistake. he sees it as the opposite. >> right. he sees it as very proud moment. because he didn't do the thing that everybody in the establishment all of our allies wanted to do which was attack syria, to punish for crewing chemical weapons. he sees syria as the biggest slippery slope there is, and it's a moment when he now tells himself and tells me that he's proud that have because he resisted all of the people pushing him to go have war with syria. >> dickerson: does he -- what about having said it out loud does he at acknowledge that that

maybe wasn't such a great idea because ultimately -- >> he didn't -- he doesn't regret or didn't say that he regrets it he thought it was appropriate brush back pitch, what i think he's learned don't make these kind of statements unless you're going to carry it through. that's was the big says lest son i think for him. >> dickerson: also talk about free riders. we hear this term or i hear this term lot explain iowa free riders are that concept. >> flee riders are american allies, mainly europe and middle east, who expect america to do everything for them. don't pay enough of their own share of defense and don't defend themselves and just expecting america to do everything. president obama has, like a lot of americans, some level of resentmentment and he talks about arab states wanting to bring america into all of their wars against iranian opposition and sort much says, why do we have to do all this.

traditionally americans have looked at europe said, you guys need to pay more for your defense. it's a very american position he's taking, by the way, on this question. >> dickerson: in the gulf states you're saying what they're saying is, would you deal with iran for us, take care of it for us? >> right. there's some this feeling they want us to be their muscle. we're having a fight in yemen and syria, you're the big guy. you just deal with it for us we'll hold your coat and you go fight. i think president obama is a guy who is not looking for new fights for america and the world. >> dickerson: is that connected to another phrase, i feel like we're going through the phrases of the obama foreign policy but leading from behind. >> which sun fair description of what he was trying to do. this is precisely it. he said, you know what, we'll do this, you meaning britain and france this is your back yard you got to do all the clean up. we have the capability of bombing everything we need to bomb but you -- he told me, this is matter some of controversy he

told me he doesn't think that britain and france did enough in the follow up. and has some disappointment about that. and of course they don't like to hear that, but it's probably true. >> dickerson: isn't that the argument for why the u.s. has to do everything because you can't leave it to somebody else? >> i think president obama trying to train our allies in essence to grow up a little bit and take a little bit more responsibility. especially for problems that are in their neighborhoods. that we can't do everything any more. >> dickerson: that how he can say that the lesson of libya is that you got to make sure there's something in place after the military action, because that seems shocking because i thought that was the lesson of iraq. >> well, the libya was his iraq in some ways which is why he so hesitant to go further in to syria. lib bra he feels like he did everything right, he lined everything up, am lice thought they would do x, y and z. he told me, it didn't work, that's of it didn't work. he's learned a lesson which is like don't get involved in these kind of problems.

>> dickerson: we have a minute left. you've interviewed him so many times over course of so long, just give me your sense of what it was like to interview him here, he's looking towards the exits, what is his state of mind? >> i've been think iing about. this i was doing sees series of interviews last four months, we're talking about limits of liberal interventionism, we're talking about the amorphous quality, i'm trying to have these serious, mature conversations we're having them. then you look at what people are talking about in the primary campaign about foreign policy. and e-mails and ben good 'and build a wall and bigger wall and it's going to get china to do x, y and z. it's about islam. i wonder if he at this point sitting there alone laughing at these candidates saying, you have idea what it's like to try to manage the world. >> dickerson: jeffrey, thanks so much. much. >> thank you. dickerson: we'll be right

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>> dickerson: that's it for us today. thanks for watching. until next week for phrase the nation. i'm john dickerson. captioning sponsored by cbs captioned by media access group at wgbh access.wgbh.org

but hold on --- a break in e rain is on the horizon. good evening, i'm juliette go brian hackney is off the daylong the leash in the bay area leads to landslides and flooded roads. a break in the rain is on the horizon. we have been praying for rain forever and now we are hearing when is it going to end? soon. over the last three hours you can see the heaviest rain paskaruk and now we are starting to taper off. we are seeing some showers right now over the east bay heading toward oak land