>> dickerson: welcome back the "face the nation." i'm john dickerson. we continue with republican strategist and cbs kutian frank luntz. frank, you mentioned change, and that was the message that would bring republans together. donald trump has been talking about what he'll do in his first 100 days. he talked about derange the swamp in washington. is that what that's all about? >> it should have happened weeks or even months ago. i don't now why he waited this long. when you have 70 million people watching the debates, that's when he should have released his plan for the first 100 days. what republicans should look at, because there's going to be a lot of recrimination when this election is over, is that the focal point was not on those forgotten americans that donald trump talked about a year ago as he began his candidacy, it's that it's all focused on him, his battles with the women, his battles with the media, his battles with just about

everybody. if he had stayed the voice and the vision for those people who have been left behind, this race would be a lot different than it is right now. >> dickerson: you say "recriminations." do you think it's over? do you think he's going the lose? >> i don't think it's over. if you look at polling numbers in key states, there are enough people still undecided. hillary clinton in almost, almost every poll is below 50%. i don't think she's going to get a majority on election day. but it requires a level of discipline that the trump campaign has not had. this is about the voice of the voters, not the voice of donald trump. >> dickerson: is it the campaign or is it the candidate you think where the signal is getting lost? >> i think it's both. and in the testing that we do, donald trump scores really well when he talks about changing the budget and holding people accountable. but he scores really badly when he starts attacking hillary clinton on personal terms or even goes as far back as bill clinton. john, i have never seen a campaign that has less discipline, less focus, less of

an effective vision at a time when more americans are demanding a change in the way their government works. this should have been a slam dunk for the g.o.p. >> dickerson: all right. frank luntz, thanks so much for being with us. we appreciate it. >> thank you. >> dickerson: we now go to democratic strategist and cnn political consultant david axelrod who is also in chicago. david, we must congratulate you first, a little history for the cubs. we wish them well next week in the world series. >> onl 71 years, john. >> dickerson: now that we've gotten that out of the way, give us your sense of where this race stands right now. >> look, i don't know any consultant on either side, any strategist who privately believes that donald trump's going to win this election, i think that hillary clinton is in a very strong position now. and you can see it with the fact that she's pressing into these normally republican bastions. your own poll in texas was shocking. she's got a lead in the

aggregation of polls in arizona, and she's doing well in virtually every being state, traditional battleground state. so the question now that you hear is: what impact will it have down the ballot. that's where i think the focus is going to be for the last couple weeks. >> dickerson: in those house and senate races. you've been in one of these. you know about early voting, the voting taking place right now. how does the campaign, if it's doing as well as the clinton campaign appears to be doing, how do they know it from looking at the early voting and what can they do strategically in the next 16 days that we should be looking at as we watch this campaign? >> well, this is one of the places where they have an advantage because they have invested in the acutements of modern politics, in at it -- an lettics. who is voting early? they assigned scores in these battleground states to these voters to assess the likelihood that they'll be voting democrat or republican. and through those techniques you

can get a sense of how you are doing. they know who hasn't voted, who should be voting for them, and they'll be pressing those people. there's no comparable operation in the trump campaign. the republican party has it, but the republican party has to make a decision as to whether they bring out voters for their senate candidates and congressional candidates, notwithstanding where they think those voters are on donald trump. >> dickerson: do you think the fact that hillary clinton is now talking about she took on senator pat toomey, the republican in pennsylvania, and is spending, as you say, more of her attention on trying to help democrats get elected in congress, is that something they can do because they're seeing this early vote come in, or is it just simply they're looking at the national polls and thinking they have that freedom to move a little bit off of their attack directly at donald trump? >> i think you can assume they've got pretty sophisticated polling, and each of these battleground states. but i think there is a potential trap for the democrats and for hillary clinton. if she partisanizes her appeal

in the final weeks too sharply, because the voters who are drifting from republicans are republican, college-educated republican, independent voters who might lean republican. if you partisanize the race too sharply, you may drive some of those voters back. so she has to be careful about how she makes her appeal in the final weeks, trying to get people out, trying to get people to vote, but talking more broadly about how she's goings to bring the country together rather than turning it into a partisan fight. >> dickerson: we've talked over the course of this election about message at the center of the clinton campaign, one of those hacked e-mails that came out this week is a conversation inside the clinton campaign back in february, her pollster who you know well, writes in one of those e-mails, "do we have any sense from her, her meaning the candidate, what she believes or wants her core message to be?" is that still a challenge for her campaign? what that core message is? >> well, yeah, i think it is challenge for them, but it's completely overridden by the

things that frank luntz just talked about. donald trump has become the issue in this campaign. he has made himself that. he has made himself the center of discussion. and that has overwhelmed every other issue. so even though she's going into this election with historically high liability in comparison to donald trump, she is doing quite well. >> dickerson: oprah winfrey tried to make the case for hillary clinton saying, "you don't have to like her." that's not a... what do you make of that? >> well, i think the people... this is a binary choice. one of these people is going to be president of the united states. what people have concluded, and you see it in every poll, is that hillary clinton has the competence and then she has the temperament to be president. they have questions about donald trump on both those things and that's what's making it impossible for him to make progress. >> dickerson: david axelrod from chicago, thank you so much for being with us. >> great to be with you, john. >> christa: we'll be right back with our politics panel.

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to join the bold percent for the chance to win a trip of a lifetime. >> thank you for bringing up my e-mail, chris, and i'm very clarify to happen what's in some of them. sorry. what, carol? i'm sorry. i thought i heard my friend carol. anyway, back to your question about the way that donald treats women. [laughter] and that is how you pivot.

>> dickerson: that was kate mckinnon playing hillary clinton from last night's "saturday night live." for some analysis on the real-life moments in the debate and more, we're here with "wall street journal" column fist and cbs news contributor peggy noonan jamelle bouie is here, jeffrey goldberg is here, we congratulate him on his new role at "the atlantic." he was just named editor-in-chief of the magazine. and ed o'keefe covers politics for the "washington post." we'll kick our conversation off from kate mckinnon. we'll run a clip of hillary clinton answering a question or not answering a question from a debate. >> well, everything i did as secretary of state was in furtherance of our country's interest and our values. the state department has said that. i think that's been proven. but i am happy, in fact, i am thrilled the talk about the clinton foundation, because it is a world-renowned charity, and

i am so proud of the work that it does. >> dickerson: that was a question, peggy, about allegations and proof in e-mails both hacked and also found through freedom of information requests of a closeness between the clinton foundation and the state department. she was asked about that closeness and her pledge to make sure there was no appearance of closeness, and she went and just talked about the great things the foundation was doing and didn't answer the question at all. in politics, they say if you're explaining, you're losing. she decided just not to explain. >> that's one way to look at it. you might say that was avowing to the fact that she has no argument to make here that is going the really make you think, oh, there was no pay for play, and if those allegations are wrong. i did think it took a special maybe gumption is the word to say, and we know i have only done the best work for america, after all, that is what my state

department said. that is like, you tell me you did something wrong and i say, oh, no, i didn't, and i know i didn't because me said i didn't. it was her state department. so what can she do but pivot away from something that i think is a serious charge that even people in your focus group were talking about. it's just out there. everybody knows what they think. >> dickerson: it's out there, jamelle, but she seems to have come through the three debates in a much stronger position, so maybe she hasn't paid... people don't penalize her for not answering a question and donald trump helps her by taking the bait and going off and doing his own thing. >> right. i think part of the problem for donald trump in trying to capitalize on allegations of pay for play are really is with the scandals around clinton, you can find a similar problem around trump. clinton pivoted, but she pointed

out that trump also has a foundation, and at least our foundation helps people, his just seems to purchase portraits of himself and that dynamic exists for so many allegations against clinton or scandals against clinton that she can just avoid the question by turning it become on trump. and that's given her i think a real rhetorical advantage, even as voters still have a lot of questions about her honesty, her trustworthiness, et cetera, et cetera. >> dickerson: another time when she pivoted from a question asked about open borders, she went back and said, these wikileaks e-mails are coming from the russians and the intelligence agencies have said the russians are responsible and donald trump called her out for pivoting and then answered the russian question. what did you make of... he had first half right but the second half went to embrace russia. what do you make, jeffrey, of donald trump's... the safe space he creates for russia when he talks about russia and the fact that the intelligence community say russia was involved in the attack but donald trump is

kinder to him than others? >> speaking of safe space, nothing triggers donald trump like a criticism of vladimir putin. it's quite remarkable to watch. we saw it the other night. this is historic and it represents a seismic shift in the way american politicians talk about russia. and large authoritarian countries in general. i mean, it's not entirely explicable to me, but generally the pattern in american politics and american life is we tend to side with small, besieged democracies over authoritarian superpowers. donald trump's sympathies seem to lie in a completely different direction. sometimes we do that well. sometimes we this that not well. sometimes presidents are criticized for not doing enough, ukraine and obama is an example, but this is not entirely explicable but it's revolutionary. >> we've had three debates. after the three of them, what's the final conclusion? >> his bottom fell out and yet she did nothing to answer those

questions about e-mails, about the state department, about transparency, and she seems perfectly fine with that. i think they have gambled that they're ahead by enough comfortably that that's something that can be dealt with when she's president or she'll have to demonstrate through her actions that she can win back the trust of the american people. but look, if she had faith and if she faces a stronger republican candidate four years from now, should she win, it's going to be very hard for her because i think a lot of the other guys who were running were very well prepared to just prosecute her day after day after day. and it would have been a very different race. she got lucky this time frankly. >> dickerson: let's talk about the homestretch, peggy. the debates are over. the finish line is within sight and some states are already voting. where do you see the race right now? is it over? people are behaving like it's over? how do you feel? >> i feel like the surprises can happen. but i think we all agree that the trendlines suggest it will not work for mr. trump. you never know.

and you've got to keep an open mind, and you have two weeks here. but i think it looks rather difficult for him, and i think for the reasons that frank luntz really laid out. he has at the end of the day done a poor campaign. he has not talked enough about the perceived problems, the problems as they perceive them by the american people. he has talked much more and more impressively and more engagingly about his own issues with women, with the rigged media, with the rigged risk. and, you know, it's... it doesn't make a good impression or leave a good taste. it should have been bigger than that. >> he goes the gettysburg to deliver a policy speech and the headlines that come out are "complaining about the rigged election." talking about suing women who are suing him falsely. this is the opposite of big. people are left with bad taste.

he's not been able to ever stop being donald trump in that sense. that's the fatal flaw. >> what's striking about this is this is clear from the beginning. if you observe trump closely from 2015 or summer 2015 to the present, you would have predicted this exact course, but something like it. >> this is weirder than the exact course. >> but the general fact that trump has never been particularly interested in policy, never been particularly interested in talking about always premised his candidacy about the idea that he wasq unique force that through himself could make everything better, and the limits of that are maybe much more apparent than we would have thought they were. but that's always been there in the trump meth message. >> but he's had more than a year to learn how to be a passable candidate, not a really great one with a political gift, but an adequate one, and that hasn't happened, and i wasn't sure that would be so.ñi i disagree with you a little bit in that i think he has some

political talent, because he isolated important issues to the republican base that electrified this political year, and we'll we'll -- they will have to be worked out by the republican party in coming years. >> i'm just saying that he doesn't have any of the discipline you would need to become president of the united states. even your relatively inexperienced candidates like eisenhower have 20 years of political experience in one way, shape or another. trump has none of them. >> except for writing checks, perhaps. >> dickerson: in our focus room, there was a lot of talk during the debate when donald trump wouldn't embrace the idea of an election outcome. in the know cuss group, we talk the people who are not necessarily trump fans. this is not a big deal to me. >> i picked up on a lot of that, too. i think everyone there who covers this saw it as a galling and really historic moment for a candidate to say that. but i am reminded over and over again in talking to trump supporters and people who don't like trump that voters across

this country, a lot of them don't take him seriously. they understand that a lot of this is in their view designed to catch attention, which this obviously did. >> dickerson: i think ed who was part of your focus group said ultimately he's going to come around and he's just teasing it out a little bit. that's what a lot of people i think have thought. others like jeffrey think it's astounding and it's horrifying. and i would agree, it's unprecedented and really irresponsible probably of a presidential nominee to say it. but over and over again i'veçó d voters that that they just don't take it seriously. >> dickerson: one other thing, trump supporters also say they want to blow up the system. they think the system has failed them some who cares if donald trump doesn't pay attention to the niceties of this system that fails me. >> new york i think this is an interesting debate about whether 70-year-old people can change anyway and whether this particular 70-year-old person can change. but i thought one of the truest moments of this last phase was the very large question about the future of the supreme court,

and donald trump could have gone anywhere with with that question, and instead he pivoted to making the assertion that ruth bader ginsburg, one of the justices was mean to him. it all comes down... this is the essence of who he is. it's all about... there's nothing else but him in this. he relates to the supreme court through the fact that ruth bader ginsburg said something mean. that was his answer. and there's nothing that looks beyond his base in that kind of answer. >> dickerson: peggy, 70% of republicans in our poll think the only way donald trump is going the lose if there is voter fraud. >> yeah. >> dickerson: what do you make of that statistic? they think the election is being stolen? >> i think a most interestingly, they actually do think that if trump loses it will only be because of voter fraud. look, the integrity of the ballot and of the voting booth as we used to say is extremely important if we ever really lose it as a country, we'll be losing so much it will be a dreadful trauma. there are certain issues to worry about. hacking is one of them.

who might be behind a hacking of an american election. it's actually possible. so that is a problem. on top of that, look, america is a very great democracy with a long history of political mischief. you know people sometimes do things that they shouldn't be doing. have elections ever been stoleen? my gosh, of course. but one of the things republicans should be thinking about is that each state governs its own voting reality. most of the battleground states are governed by republican governors. most polling places are looked over by both republican and democratic stewards who are making sure everything is okay. i think this rigged thing maybe is a larger metaphor in certain areas, i understand that, but if you're saying this election is going to be stolen, boy, you better put up the evidence and put it up now. >> dickerson: and there is no evidence. there is evidence of fraud in life, but not that it's going to

swing the entire election. >> the most comprehensive study of in-person voter found that in one billion ballots cost between 2000 and 2013, there were 31 suspected incidents of in-person voter fraud. i think it's important to see so many republican voters have been suspectable to this belief because mainstream republican politicians have been arguing in support of very restrictive voter laws in places like income and wisconsin that there is persistent voter fraud that influences election. when you have republican elites argue this or never challenge it, for 15 years, you can't be shocked when the presidential candidate says things like the election is rigged, that people we again the believe it. >> dickerson: jamelle, you have the last word there. sorry, peggy. hold that for next time. thanks to all of you for being here. we'll be back in a moment with a report from iraq. stay with us.

>> dickerson: we turn now to the iraqi effort to retake the city of most federal isis. the terror group has had control of the city for two years. the iraqis are being assisted by

american troops. there are approximately 5,000 in the region. defense secretary ash carter visited the area this weekend to get a progress report. the fight for mosul is expected to continue for weeks if not months. and it has already spread into neighboring cities. cbs news foreign correspondent holly williams is on the front line of the offensive and filed this reporter's notebook for us. >> watch out, watch out! >> reporter: reporting from the "frontline" in the fight against isis is sometimes chaotic. we carried a gopro camera with us on friday as we witnessed a gunfight in the city of kirkuk between isis militants and a local swat team. [gunfire] you can see our cameraman and producer trying to capture the reality of this conflict without getting themselves hurt. the battle for mosul pits america and its allies against a

sadistic death cult. air strikes and helicopter gun ships against suicide bombers. and the front line north of mosul on thursday, these kurdish fighters spotted a small drone overhead. causing panic and drawing a hail of bullets. it's not surprising they're nervous. an isis drone loaded with explosives killed two kurdish soldiers hire earlier this month. the u.s. military insists that its role here is only to advise and assist the iraqi, but the line between advising and combat sometimes seems a fine distinction. members of the u.s. military are operating in this area, although we're not allowed to film them. we've also seen troops from the coalition, from the european countries, firing on isis. but even with america's help, this battle against barbaric extremists will come down to

these men fighting for their land and control of their country. >> dickerson: that was cbs news correspondent holly and we'll be right back. and on this side it's tennessee. no matter which state in the country you live in, you could save hundreds on car insurance by switching to geico. look, i'm in virginia... i'm in tennessee... virginia... tennessee... and now i'm in virginessee. see how much you could save on car insurance. or am i in tennaginia? hmmm...

>> dickerson: that's it for us today. thanks for watching. until next week for "face the nation," i'm john dickerson. captioning sponsored by cbs captioned by media access group at wgbh access.wgbh.org

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