>> dickerson: welcome back to "face the nation." i'm johnçó dickerson. u.s. intelligence warn this week about a possible al qaeda terror attacks. how real is the threat? senior news analysis fran townesend and washington post's david i g ignatius is here withó more. how serious is this? >> it's important this is corral saisaidcoreal qaeda. i'm told thisçó came after the killing of a key al qaeda operative, an operation planner in the provence of northeastern afghanistan two weeks ago.

his discussion of operations plans is where this begins. it is taken seriously. it's specific. it snakes three states and a time. one reason an official says we're notñi in panic mode about this is core al qaeda is a great distance away. it has a difficulty organizing and is not a top threat. what is the most is the lone wolf, home grown problem. someone with a gun going to a polling place, motivated by all stuffñi on-line. in terms of this threat it was specific and disseminated. the reason officials think it's not a three alarm fire. >> dickerson: the reason is the ability to carry out an operation is degraded the last three years from a stacks of al qaeda. >> this is a key operation planner who survives, now dead but survived in his conversation

with operatives. the question is the ability to carry out the plans. people think that's limited. >> dickerson: fran, what happens on the homeland security end with this operation? what can be done whatñi is being done? >> first of all, john, they have a dent phid over a dozen operatives that have been deployed. they have been trained over the course of three years in the afghanistan and pakistan region brought back to the united states. as did points out dhs will work with state and local officials, law enforcement. here in new york they have a task force to try to identify investigations where operatives have traveled and may fit the profile to try to disrupt it. >> dickerson: okay, fran. a little laryngitis there. thank you for. that david, let me ask you, another threat on election day

people are worried about is a threat of disruption. a talk about the russians. vice president said the hacked e-mails, the wikiñi leaked e-mas trace back to russia. what is the status of u.s. operations responding to russia and a z)(ruption on election day? >> two top officials. james clamor and jay johnson issued a statement last month. they were very specific. they said that the most senior level russian officials must have approved the hacking that has been done of democratic officials, hillary clinton's campaignñr chairman. i'm told that since then there was a private warning, i believe by president obama himself to vladimir putin saying any further russian attempts to fear in the u.s. elections would have the most serious consequences.

i'm told further that officials believe the russians have not escalated attacks. they saoepbl to have gotten the message. people are very careful and watching each event. there is a cyber war room set up for tuesday to monitor any attempt to intrude. i'm told finally that all vyings president biden warned of u.s. repricñireprisals none have been against russia. >> dickerson: fran, on election day, how may we see disruption from those that want to mess with the election returns? >> you know, john, i think we think about it like the recent attacks we saw. i worry more about a pervasiveness. massive text messages going out to voters saying polls areñi closed or poll locations are

closed to affect voter turn out. think that's insidious and more difficult for officials to react to and detect. >> dickerson: instead of hacking the infrastructure, but more misinformation and different messages. david, i will switch quickly to theçó fbi at the end. the director has come under criticism for his handling of the e-mails. there are leaks from the fbi that are more messy then we have seen before. what do you make? >> first the fbi now is leaky. are you never sure of people who claim to be speaking on be half of fbi agents or speak en to them whether it's true or not. it's a law enforcement agency ii turmoil. that's something everyone should be worried about after the election. if secretary clinton wins on tuesday it's possible she may end up being glad that james surfaced this issue of

additional e-mails on a investigation. it reduces the possibility that you can say later this was suppressd and rigged. it's conceivable. now within the clinton camp the director of the fbi is not their favorite person, obviously. if she wins she can say it's a more stable transition. >> dickerson: thank you, fran and david for being with us. we will be back with our political panel. ñi

>> dickerson: we're back with our politics panel. amy walter, john heilemann, jam heel bowie and mark leibovich. john heilemann, what is goingñln in the race right now. >> it's almost over, john. the blessed day is nearly upon us. what is going on, the races looked tight, tighter than people thought it would be at the end. it's the case hillary clinton has never been behind in the race, not for one day sings the general election started. her lead is small but it's the case the clinton campaign feel more confident about where they were then those with the obama campaign in 2012 felt at this stage in 2012. they feel she has a narrow but durable lead.

that donald trump is behind has few -- electoral votes. they're not over confident but quite confident they will win on tuesday. >> dickerson: amy, what do you make of the donald trump schedule change? was suppose to be in wisconsin now in michigan and in minnesota. is that a crazy last minute genius or a sign of spreading himself too thin? how do you read it. >> two things. going to john's point about feeling like 2012. i feel like we are in a deja vu moment. a time machine and back to 2012. we're talking about the same things we did at this point in 2012. back then can mitt romney win driving up votes among white voters and growing that base. we are litigating that again. we said can mitt romney tip a rust belt state that has been a

democratic hands for years and years, at the last minute with no effort or on the ground work there. in 2012 it was pennsylvania this. year it's michigan. so, we know what the answer was in 2012. this is, itçó looks -- it looks like we're heading down the same path in 2016. i think your point that you raise to reince priebus was the right question. it makes perfect sense that michigan and pennsylvania would be donald trump'sçó targets. if you win with white working class voters only that's where you go. that's where you invest early by finding the voters, registering them, getting them out. not going in with 48 hours to go. >> dickerson: ma'ajamelle,ñi rod reagan did get the bigger part of the white sroes. mitt romney didn't win.

how do you think this race itself, mitt romney was different then donald trump. donald trump has a better chance turning out those voters. where does this theory play out? is he pulling the skeptics wrong. >> i don't think he is. he's turning out more working class white voters then before. it explains i don't think he's far behind. a large proportion of the electorate and they're doing extraordinarily well. it lifts the ceiling considerably. what it has taken strum to get the voters out repels college educated white voters. hillary clinton is on pace to win college white voters for democrats for the first time since we have kept track of this. on the same token when it takes to write out all of the working class white voters drives hispanic and african-american voters to the poles.

we see hispanic voters turning out at a huge level. so, you know, the idea that there is some pool of working class whites that you can turn out and maybe make up the deficit that romney had. i don't think it's wrong. i don't think people considered the actions with reactions. the things you need to turn those skroeter voters out alien. >> think before you look too deeply into donald trump'sñi travel schedule you have to wonder how sophisticated the polling operation is at all if they have done polling. forget the commitments on the ground. it's unclear who the pollster is. he didn't pay -- there was a back story if he had infrastructure atñi all. as amy said you have to be aware of the sleeper states. michigan and minnesota are the states we're talking about now. pennsylvania, mitt romney.

john mccain. george w. bush was supposedly close in california. it nearly cost him theñi electi. also people are looking too deeply into signs of momentum, crowd that thing. people are engaged this. is the 11th hour. you hope people are engaged. we don't know very much, we will know more in 36 hours. >> dickerson: john, mark brings up a good point. the rnc put a lot on the grouped. the rnc is not donald trump. this is about the smartiepants elites and real human beings. >> nobody at this table. dickerson: present company included. one of the challenges of the election is the smart people think they know what is going on. donald trump is successful doing his thing. is that the story of the old fashion question of the -- of the science of politics and turning people out and analytics

and all you hear that is suppose to make politics a science? maybe donald trump knows something better. >> well, if that's trueñi a lotf us have to check a lot of our preconceptions at the door. here is where i don't think it's true. i think it's most important to think about what is going on. michigan and everything else. there are -- we have an election day on tuesday. in some states like michigan election day is election day. all vote on election day. part of why they're there is there is no early vote in michigan. there is momentum tightening it could play out in michigan. he would win on election day. a lot of the other states they have been voting for weeks or many weeks or many days, right. that's the question of science. where money and infrastructure, get out of the vote operations and the ground game matters. part of the reason the clinton campaign is confident the tightening this past week, the

real, won't have a huge effect because places like florida, north carolina, nevada those places have banked a huge number of votes and in many cases they believe and there is actual statistic information not anecdotal information, that it's true. they have banked the votes that no matter how well donald trump does on election day it won't help out on the gap. >> they're voting to day in big states. ohio, north carolina, florida. this is still, people are voting today. even as we take the polls we will see a big number out of

amusing a lot of people advising donald trump say when she speaks on a teleprompter he stays on message and doesn't get into

diversions. those worried about his temperament are coming back home. maybe the teleprompter is helping him. >> maybe. i think there are other forces the past week. beginning with the fbi and the letter. think precedence has been friendly to donald trump. you has had relatively incident free weeks if you want to say that. i think though that a lot -- a lot is baked into the cake. precedence is a cruel mistress through the campaign. any sort of -- we have been proven wrong. the "smart people around the table" i think that's over rated. i don't claim to be smart. they have been wrong so many steps of the way. donald trump would love nothing more to say i have rewritten and

proven the old play book wrong. yes, maybe -- >> dickerson: jamelle, what are you looking for on election day? what are you looking for? >> i will be looking to see what hispanic turn out is looking like in nevada and florida, and north carolina. same with african-american turn out. i -- you know, when the poles start to close i will have my eye on north carolina. i was there the past week. going between charlotte and raleigh/durham. that is a tightly contested state. however it ends up on tuesday will tell us how the race will end up that night. >> dickerson: clinton will run up the votes in the cities and hope to hold down the rural areas. how but, john? >> looking to the east coast first. >> dickerson: you're an elitist? >> we get the results earlier. places like nevada, i think with the early vote, is gone for

donald trump already. african americans in north carolina, suburban, philadelphia suburbs. raw numbers in philadelphia. whether clinton can roll up the totals there. that will lock up pennsylvania if she does. i think keep an eye on new hampshire. it's a state she has had a wide, in some cases, lead there. that race has tightened up. if trump wins new hampshire. it doesn't matter for raw votes but it may show all is not well in battlegrounds. >> dickerson: yes. they maybe the same down the line. even with just four electoral votes. how about you, amy? >> indiana is a big senate race. democrats thought it was in the bag for them. it's tightened and maybe a little behind. this will tell us, not necessarily if democrats have enough to win a majority in the senate but will tell us if they have a big majority. if the democrats win there it's

a sign of a big number of seats that night. >> dickerson: amy, explain when john says nevada maybe done. in 2012 i was struck the obama people -- basically colorado before election day. how can a campaign know they're done? >> ya, well in colorado it's almost all mail-in state. you can show up but 90% is in the mail. they know their voters in colorado. they literally can tell you the number of people who have turned in ballots. they know in the modeling what that means for the vote they will get. same with a place like nevada. you get 60, 70 percent of the vote before election day. this is where michigan, new hampshire and pennsylvania we watch on election night. they vote that day. >> dickerson: mark, what are you looking for on election night. >> obviously east coast states. we know we don't have to wait around. it would be nice to -- i'm

trying not to pay attention to exit poles like we do. there is a recent wave between 3-7:00 p.m. that's blocked off for a nap at this point. yes, we will see. i think north carolina, new hampshire are early indicater states and the time zone advantage. >> dickerson: we don't want to look at the exit poles too early they are sometimes wrong how they work. quickly, jamelle who ever wins there will be a huge chunk of the public unhappy. is that just how it will be? is there anything the victor can do ob election night -- on election night to begin the heel. >> i think the tenor of the campaign specifically on the trump effort, the implications of rigging and the implications of clinton and the clinton electorate being illegitimate. it will leave us with a fraction

of people that are beyond upset. >> dickerson: okay. hopefully it will be cleaned up. thanks to all of you. we will be right back. test test tes ,,

>> dickerson: be sure to tune into cbs tomorrow for charlie rose's conversation with chris christie in his first interview following the conviction of two -- and then follow us on our extended live coverage of elections. our digital network will have coverage all day leading up to that. had 12 years of setbacks and breakthroughs, 4,423 sleepless nights, and countless trips back to the drawing board.

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we'd do anything for kids. yet 1 in 6 children in the us struggle with hunger. help end childhood hunger near you. learn how at feedingamerica.org. >> dickerson: finally a word of thanks to all of you, our viewers. this has been an emotional, hard fought, and a little jittery presidential race. you were always with us. whether your preferred candidate was ahead, behind or you found yourself shaking your heads for the choices. thank you for sticking with us. we will be here when it's over making sense of it all, and

looking to what lies ahead. we know you will be too. until next week for "face the nation" i'm john dickerson. captioning sponsored by cbs captioned by media access group at wgbh access.wgbh.org

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