>> dickerson: question cool book. more of our conversation can white house budget director mick mulvaney. i want to just button up on this point about arcane senate rules. those are in place, though, to force budget discipline and so that people don't say let's get a lot of tax cuts blow a big hole in the deficit one of the huge knocks against this tax cut. size. debt but going to increase. >> they are. also written in 1974, haven't been changed, i don't think at all since then just very difficult to do, difficult to model a $20 trillion economy. make the argument if i sold 100 of these cups last year at $5 then i'd lower price to $4 this year that i won't sell any more. that's what the scoring does. it is arcane system, we think it's broken and doesn't reflect the real world but we have to play by those rules. >> dickerson: also, people are saying, i think you suggested this before the break, that eye shanely if people like the tax

cuts they're going to get continued. future congress will do this. isn't that slightly dishonest you are hoping, i'm not saying you, in this general argument, you're bakesly saying these are going to continue just trust us and also the budget impacts on deficit again, which has an affect on the economy, those are not being taken into account but you're assuming that these tax cuts -- >> if the senate rules are different everything would be permanent or as permanent as anything is in washington, d.c., clearly new government can change the law. but go back to the example of the bush tax cuts which were supposedly temporary he they worked, people liked them, they became permanent law. which is where we are today. again, i want confuse things that we do to try and shoehorn into the senate rules. >> dickerson: let me ask think question, the tax cuts are built an on idea that corporations that once their tax rates are reduced that they will pass on to the middle class people. gary cohen the white house

economic advisor was at a ceo meeting, you will wall street journal hosted, the audience east having asked to apps create more american jobs they wanted show of hands. hands did not shoot to the ceiling are he noted that more people, this is central premise hot this is going to work, a lot of doubt about that. >> i asked him about that afterwards. my guess is, if i'm a fortune 500 ceo i'm not going to tell my competitors who are sitting next to me what i'm going to do next year. they are going to do what is in their best interest to invest here. because not only would tax rates be lower but going to expense all of their capital expenses so every new machine that they buy, every new factory that they build they will write off immediately against their tax. that is a tremendous incentive not only folks not to leave the country in the first place, but for folks who have left to come back and that's what we think is so important in reestablishing the connection between corporate success and the success of the ordinary family.

go back over 70 years before 2008, every time corporation profits went up 1%, average household income went up by 1%. since then, corporate taxes are up i think 11% and household information are up 0.3. we need to reestablish that connection so that when companies do well families do well. >> dickerson: people who are going to see their taxes maybe go up if this tax cut doesn't last they hope the economy turns out and behaves the way you want. sen senator johnson from wisconsin, republican, said on cnn what i want to see is the information to prove the economic growth we're going to get. even he is skeptical of a publif lot of this bill is skeptical about this central theory that is at the heart of it. >> senator johnson is sort of honed in on one thing that we knew was the last big substantive piece of the puzzle. how to deal with the pass-through entities, s corporations, llcs and partnerships. their tax are different than c corporations. tax at the individual level. so when you start to lower the corporate tax rate it's arguably

putting s corporations at disadvantage that needs to be worked out. sen to johnson hit on this, it needs to get fixed but i'm comfortable that it will be. >> dickerson: it's going to cost money if it is. >> not to keep more of their own money. costs money to spend money you don't have. that's another issue. >> dickerson: thanks soap nor >> dickerson: thanks soap nor being with us, we'll be right back with our political panel. she had so many children she had to buy lots of groceries. while she was shopping for organic fruits and veggies, burglars broke into her shoe. they stole her kids' mountain bikes and tablets along with her new juice press. luckily the geico insurance agency had helped her with homeowners insurance. she got full replacement on the stolen goods and started a mountain bike juice delivery service. call geico and see how affordable homeowners insurance can be.

>> dickerson: go to our political panel, ruth marcus editorial page editor of the "washington post."

a senior writer at the "national review," we're also joined by susan page washington bureau chief for "usa today." and ed o'keefe who covers politics on capitol hill for the "washington post" also cbs news contributor. ed, i'll start with you. what's going to happen with roy moore? >> you know, doesn't look like he's leaving the race or republicans outside of alabama can do anything to compel him to do it. means it will cause probably political headaches or national republicans throughout the rest of the year. a poster boy for what democrats would think is wrong with washington and with the republican party. and if mitch mcconnell threats this past week were true it will lead immediately to ethics investigation of the new senator, possibly concurrent with the one that would be underway for al franken and maybe also one underway for senator bob menendez who is coming back after the thanksgiving break from a federal corruption trial.

it will be interesting year, certainly. >> dickerson: and at this point republicans just have to probably hope that there's nothing else out there that is even more yet there's reason to believe that there is. >> dickerson: senate ethics committee, senator menendez was found to have mistrial this week which is -- triggered the move by mcconnell. david, welcome. answer the question i pose to tom cotton, what what is better for republicans, if he wins or loses? >> clearly better if roy moore loses. couple of reasons. one it will be very important party hygiene. steve bannon needs to lose. roy moore needs to lose. those who are connected right now. if what people -- many people are forgetting blot that this would be not just to the roy moore side of the g.o.p. which needs to lose but the steve bannon enterprise of trying to destroy the g.o.p. as we know it. he needs to be discredited, if he helps lose a senate seat in

one of the brightest, reddest states in the nation, why would anyone listen to steve bannon ever again. so that is, i think, an incredibly important potential moment of party hygiene. we don't know if that is going to happen yet. >> dickerson: and susan, mitch mcconnell would have a senator come in who is clearly a improvisational character, roy moore, would -- couldn't this get managed the way mitch mcconnell thinks it could get managed or is he hoping he doesn't have to handle? >> if he could cast a vote, i think he was born in alabama, actually. mitch mcconnell would not vote for roy moore. for one thing, roy moore is not a mitch mcconnell republican. running on campaign to eject mitch mcconnell from the leadership. in no way is this good for mitch mcconnell even if it costs him one of those crucial republican senate seats. i think it's hard to make a call on who is going to win that race, though.

we do have democrat ahead in polls, one of the lessons from last year's presidential campaign don't look at the polls, who is energized to show up. i don't think we know yet whether it's diehard roy moore supporters or other people in alabama who are disgusted by what they're seeing. >> dickerson: ruth, democrats are disgusted but are they going to turn out in alabama and in some ways, democrats are enjo enjoying this moment leading morality aside, many are happy to, to see republican party stuck with a roy moore. >> sure. i think you need to listen who is look at who is energized also need to look who is disgusted. i think there are lot of republicans in alabama who aren't going to rouse themselves to go out and vote for democratic candidate. but who just would prefer to stay home, hold their noses see what happens. >> dickerson: ruth, tell us, we got historical change happening here across the society and in washington with respect to capitol hill. name that moment.

temp us what moment we're in? >> i think we're in chapter 3. chapter one was anita hill and clarence thomas where a lot of people who probably should have known better discovered that there was this problem called sexual harassment in the workplace. and yes, women didn't always go yelling and screaming about it at the exact moment that it happened. chapter two was monica lewinsky, bill clinton. chapter three is now, i think this is probably the most significant chapter of them all. where we are is we understand that there's a lot of -- this behavior is rampant, there's a lot of need that is intolerable in the workplace. and elsewhere. and we have not been serious enough about dealing with it. where we -- what we haven't figured out yet s what is the appropriate punishment for each -- for various transgressors. that's what we're grappling wit. >> dickerson: one of the things we're grappling with is al franken in the senate. what is your sense of --

columnist, "new york times" says he must go, democrats lose credibility. felt like real pressure, where is that pressure now on him? >> i think if there's something else, either before he was a senator or especially since he became a senator, at that point it's just a question of when and not if perhaps. if this is it. if they have the meeting that the accuser says he asked for and she's agreed to have and it goes well and he commits to an ethics investigation, and finds there's no other reason to believe that he's done something inappropriate, a cloud will hang over him for the rest of his senate tenure as it has for others. ruth actually raised an interested point in her column this week, to what extent wil will -- if there's a risk that people are -- over punished or over reaction to this, there have to be changes made at the capital in how congress deals with this. but i think there's argument to be made that there could be over

reaction and that would add to all the concerns that people have for scrutiny being too hot on people and keeping them from potentially engaging in public service. >> i think that the over reaction here, i don't think that senator franken should have to reshine based on where we are now. but i think there is a reasonable possibility that that will happen. in part because you use the word poster boy before, he is very unfortunate poster boy for democrats, that's not good for them. to some extent he's going -- if he is forced to resign it will be because he's paying for the under reactions to bill clinton in the past and democrats failure to pay enough attention. >> you talked about this being -- we're still living with the reverberations of chapters one and two. if joe biden runs for president in 2020 as he clearly hopes to do we'll revisit the committee's

hearings he chaired with senator judiciary for clarence thomas where anita hill was not taken seriously. and we have continued to see a reconsideration of whether democrats in general and feminists in particular took charges against bill clinton seriously enough. >> dickerson: one thing is, line drawing, i'm seeing line drawing in hollywood, harvey weinstein paid a price, kevin spacey paid a price, titles are being yanked down from netflix. corporate america. if evidence like that get out with al franken emerged in any of my private sector workplaces, that person would be gone. where i don't see line drawing is politics. i don't see it in politics. i believe people in politics are taking seriously this moment when someone in -- loses their career. let's be honest, these careers aren't all that important. he will be replaced by another democrat.

can't even draw a line then? american people look at that say where are the lines being drawn in my life not in politics. >> dickerson: there is also another line that's being drawn, i was interested that congresswoman speier and senator cotton have in mind for president trump, if there's a reevaluation of president clinton. again, towards defining what the norms are in this situation isn't the president a part that have conversation given that there are dozen accusers and he's president of the united states. >> we have to grapple with the fact that it looks like two of the last four presidents of the united states have committed some form of sexual assault. that's dreadful. i'm the last person to say that what donald trump has been credibly accused of doing by more than dozen people should be swept under the rug. the problem we have here on that is, only the tiniest percentage of donald trump voters believe those allegations are true. not that they said, yaw, they're true and i'm voting for him. they just flat out don't believe it. that makes eight very -- makes it very difficult to hold him

accountable. >> we also talk about line drawing or about big culture shift, shift toward believing the women. against celebrity accusers, prominent accusers. i'm not sure we've yet seen a culture shift for women who work at wal-mart more clean hotel rooms or work on factory floors who are subject to the same kind of abuse that women who work in law firms and on capitol hill are subject to. that would be a real culture shift. >> dickerson: said, franken and president trump that al franken admitted, is the line basically, what signal does that send if you're a politics. >> well, that if you can -- if you are -- they let you get away witness. the president is in very difficult position here because first attitude towards roy moore was if he did it then he has to resign. now his own daughter has said, i believe these women.

leader of the party, mitch mcconnell said, i believe these women. if he can't say i believe him because that racess the question if we believe them why shouldn't we believe the women who are accusing you. i think it's a really tough question for him to answer, the amazing thing is instead of kind of trying to duck and cover and avoid this. he went out and characteristically made his life more difficult by tweeting about al franken. >> dickerson: also hit the clintons by believes the accuser of bill clinton and bringing them to the debate. >> did he last year, yeah. now really tricky situation for republicans who i think understand that this is -- he's talking out of both sides of his mouth. to credit mitch mcconnell, he began this week by very clearly saying, i believe the women. he wants roy moore to avoid getting a senate seat, wants to do everything to stop him from coming. but the fact that the most senior member of congress said that, or senior member of congress said it very clearly, everyone else to fall into place

allowed franken thing to be dealt with so quickly that was a key part of chapter three as we go forward that we saw such a vane senior political leader. >> dickerson: earl back taken second with another chapter we'll talk about tax puts and the rest with our panel, stay with us.

>> dickerson: we're back with our panel. david, i want to start on tax cut question with you which is often in washington where we have these cultural moments everybody gets boxed up nothing gets done. tax cut bill is moving rickety split through congress. >> right. lot of people have been down on them for doing nothing. look, i'm optimistic something is going to get done here. there's enormous pressure from every wing of the g.o.p. the g.o.p. civil war is kind of settled on this one point, there's a need for tax reform. so i do think something's going to happen and i do think what we're going to get, it's not exactly going to be the senate bill, not going house bill going to be something better than the status quo. what that is exactly going to be we don't know. >> dickerson: ruth, you care about budgets. >> better than the status quo for who? is one thing i might say.

i think that the prognosis for this bill is really interesting. every republican lawmaker that i know is desperate to see something pass. but there are two problems here. one is that they are not desperate, they don't know all agree on what that something is. the rubik's cube analogy before this is like super rubik's cube, so many pieces you can lose somebody on that senate majority is very slim. that house madge certificate is complicated. they have done nothing else legislatively they're going to just have to run on -- supreme court nominee, but it -- >> congressal view. >> yeah. >> i don't think that's great -- greatest messaging. but if they pass it is that great news for republicans, maybe better than the alternative.

but there's going to be lot of democratic messaging about hits to the middle class and favoring corporations with permanent tax cuts over the middle classman 'of whom will be worse off at the end of this. >> dickerson: do you think that's right, susan. democrats see opportunity to rush in and say, wait, the middle class tax cuts expire for 14 million. do they have an opportunity on this? >> they do, since they can argue, principle, that the trump family alone could benefit to the tune of more than $1 million if this particular tax bill passes. another problem, the number 12, that is number of full legislative days left from now until the end of the year when they need to fund the government which runs out of money on december 8th. deal with hurricane relief. it will in fact be rickety split as you said if they manage to do something by the white house deadline of christmas. to get a tax bill through. if they manage to do that it will be because they're so interested in passing something that they won't care about exactly what it is they're

passing. >> have to get something out of this. at least by christmas because otherwise if roy moore thing doesn't turn out the numbers in the senate will change and lose one republican senator. there are at least two, ron johnson, lisa murkowski who have real issues with tax bill. is that real opposition or is that the opposition you get? >> i'd tweak it say, ron johnson for sure based on some comments he made this morning, susan collins has legitimate concerns. murkowski's point we need to stabilize the markets. bipartisan bill, office clarified later friday despite some comments she made earlier in the day, contingent on her support for the tax bill. she's expressing a concern that some of her republican colleagues have. i would watch more the people, republican senators who are concerned about things like the deficit. that is the bob corker, jeff flake, reasonable ron johnson

then secondarily, whether or not this includes changes to the individual mandate. there you lose susan collins, maybe lisa murkowski, if the thing happening too fast, you may lose john mccain who has been arguing thisth has to be done fairly to both sides because of last week's deliberation. >> can i jump in on the deficit. full agreement here. >> neither can the deficit. >> right. on point, we're going to pass this but going to be fiscally responsible because it's going to be only 1.5 trillion. budget director made clear to you in his comments that that is not the intention at all. the intention is to eventually make these -- individual tax cuts permanent to the tune of closer to over 2.2 trillion dollars. if you think that you're fiscally responsible to only afford a $1.5 trillion tax cut, you should not vote for this because everybody is saying it's going to cost more than that. >> dickerson: david, give me a tense of two things.

one what ruth says and what happened to the fiscal hawks. then secondly you mentioned steve bannon and people he supports and the kind of core of the trump message. how does this tax bill line up with them that corporations are going to go down to 20%. do they care or do they buy the argument from trump -- >> i really can't believe that this trump populism thing is not really a meaningful ideological movement in the republican party. trumpism is the personal ambition of donald trump. that's trumpism. this populism is a relatively small slice of the g.o.p. pie. we're not looking at a big political sea change here. the people who make up trump's base are very -- far more concerned with the perception that donald trump exceeding than they are with any given line item of the quote, unquote, 'general d. i think that bottom line analysis here, does trump help get tax reform passed if the answer is, yes, nada.

if the answer is, no. then, well, it's mitch and paul ryan, not donald trump. that will ultimately receive the blame in trump world. but i think that we've gotten down to sort of post ideological age when it comes to the success of donald trump where the most important thing is, perceived by his fans as the success of drum 7. >> dickerson: make america great again for anyone who doesn't know that susan page, 16% in a poll thought they were going to get a tax cult here. what david says about the trump voter rings true from the trump voters i've talked to. what about the rest of the country? >> i think it's a tough sell for the rest of the country. especially because some of the arguments they're making are owe seesly disproved. for instance, the idea that the estate tax is going to small businesses. this year, 80 farms and small businesses are affected by the estate tax. it's -- estate tax benefits is the wealthiest americans, only 5,000 or so of whom get caught

in the estate tax. i think that the idea that the reality of the tax cut helps the rich at the expense, raising taxes over the long term for families is something that makes difficult for republicans. >> dickerson: we'll be back in a moment.

>> dickerson: that's it for us today until next week for "face the nation" i'm john dickerson. captioning sponsored by cbs captioned by media access group at wgbh access.wgbh.org

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