>> dickerson: welcome back to " face the nation". there are just over six weeks until the mid term elections this november and for a look at the state of play and what voters are saying we'd like to welcome a pair of familiar faces to the broadcast. anthony salvanto the cbs news director of elections and surveys and he has brand new battle ground tracker polling results for us this morning. and ed o'keefe is a political correspondent for cbs, ed talked to voters in las vegas this week anthony, i'll start with you, everybody wants to know are democrats are going to take control of the house? >> they're in position to as of now. we've got our estimate that would have them at 224 seats if the election were held today. there is a margin of error, 12 seats, 5% of the whole house. there are scenarios, plausible scenarios under which the

republicans get to see some democratic gains. one of the things that strikes me underneath those numbers, these battleground districts, house districts that we surveyed is that a remarkable 75% of people say that the economy is good, nationally, that the economy is good in their area but they're not voting for the republicans, not voting for the party in power they don't like the way the country is going. they don't like the direction of the country. and that is split, that difference, usually say if the economy is good party in power wins. that split is remarkable. and really sort of underpins why the republicans aren't stronger position right now. >> dickerson: did you find that sentiment in your group? >> we talked to them, they say, yeah, economy is in great shape. can't necessarily support the republican candidate, don't necessarily like the direction president trump is taking us. you've got two competitive house races in the vegas area, politics is top of mind. one guy told us he's seen $20

more thanks to the tax cut, others say i have better job urse the economy is doing great. they have concerns about the way the president is running the country or fact that maybe republicans aren't doing more to stand counter to the president there for they're open for change. >> dickerson: get to the president and his role in this in a second, any other -- take us inside those numbers on the house or who are the groups we should be paying attention to and what's moving them? >> besides those the economy is not enough voters, there's another one everybody should watch that's potential new voters coming into this. the democrats' chances hinge, about 17% of everybody who tells us they're going to show up. well, look, in mid terms less than half of people usually show up democrats need to change that equation. these folks have not voted in 20 10, they didn't vote in 2014. last two mid terms. they are favoring democrats by 15 points right now in the poll. without them, the democrats frankly do not win the house if

they don't show up because they're just barely even among everybody else. >> dickerson: the people you talk to ready to go and vote or -- >> they are voting. what i thought was interesting, i think we see this in all sorts of races across the country they don't necessarily like their options republican incumbent running against a democratic congresswoman. everyone heard of them nobody was really jazzed about either of them. i think that may be an outlier in some cases across the country where you've seen these races with new candidates, new faces that are really drawing a lot of support, lot of small dollar donations. nevada isn't seeing that at least in the senate race. >> dickerson: let's talk quickly about the president, is he motivating democrats to turn out or does he have connection with republican voters that that is not there for a president and that first mid term election after they have been eye selected. >> it's both. they offset. one of the things that brings democrats enthusiasm up to match

republicans and there really isn't enthusiasm gap nows democrat who says that if the republicans hang wrong to the house they will feel angry, those folks are motivated to turn out and vote this year than people who say just be disappointed. that's clearly motivating factor , at least for them. >> dickerson: ed, you talked to the focus group about the kavanaugh nomination, let's take a look what you heard. >> it's fair game if it happened and i think it should be investigated. i had mixed feelings about that because i felt, okay, none of us are the person that we were in high school. but on the other hand, it was very important to my husband and myself when we raised our child, to our son to tell him that no means no. and you respect women, you don't abuse women. you don't -- woman says no, they don't. i think it says a lot about their character. >> dickerson: how about you?

>> so i think that the issue with brett kavanaugh is that as a judge and as a justice he's going to be ruling on sexual assault cases. so we need to know about this because maybe he secretly doesn't think that sexual assault is a problem that might affect his rulings or maybe he'll be really hard on sexual assault defendants and that over compensate and that will skew his rulings. either way this could i am par his fairness as a judge. i think we need to know about that. >> i think the operative word is fair, mr. kavanaugh has been investigated since he was with the bush administration when you're appointed as a judge you're investigated by fbi, they go talk to your high school friends, everybody. knee deep and fact that this never came out in any of these prior situations and now it comes out 30 years later in circumstances that seem a little bit off kilter, suspect me.

>> i think she needs to be heard i think it's something that everybody needs to hear both sides of the story. dr. ford has suggested that the fbi should have to formally investigate this. members of the senate judiciary committee say no, we'll handle this, we are a committee that can look at somebody's background and determine this. does it matter to you. >> yes, the fbi should be involved. one, they're more competent at investigations, they have more tools available to them to do it at one point that i really hadn't thought about it but he's right. we need to know how that is going to affect them, is it going to prejudice him. it wasn't brought up in the past that's not necessarily women want to talk about.k about. if you think back, you are probably too young to remember but i was around when anita hill

issue came up and she was not treated well or nicely or any of that. i think somebody now would have second thoughts about actually coming forward and saying anything. >> he has been investigated by the fbi previously. and i don't know that bringing them in now for an fbi investigation makes a lot of sense. i think it's too late for the fbi, frankly. >> these allegations coming up now versus all these other times he's been investigated and have background checks, i think you can't ignore the momentum the tim of the #metoo movement that that might have played factor in giving her -- >> the support that me needs. >> dickerson: what are your numbers showing? >> hard partisan split on whether or not he ought to be confirmed just republicans in favor, democrats opposed but also on whether there should be fbi investigation, also hard partisan police just bare majority, 5 too

soon to say as well people just tuning in to this now and saying , let's wait and see what happens. >> dickerson: we'll be tuning in thanks so much. we'll be right back. (vo) this is not a video game. this is not a screensaver. this is the destruction of a cancer cell by the body's own immune system, thanks to medicine that didn't exist until now. and today can save your life. ♪ ♪

[kno♪king] ♪ memories. what we deliver by delivering. >> dickerson: it's time for four political panel, amy walter is national editor of the "cook political report" and a host of wnyc's "the take away" reihan salam executive editor of the national review and contributing

editor at the at lap particular and author of new book "melting pot or civil war" seung min kim has had very busy week chasing the kavanaugh story. and dan balz the chief correspondent at the "washington post", welcome to all of you. start with you the twisting and turning we heard from another person who was allegedly at this party last night give us the latest on where things are with this hearing and what is going to happen? >> so, it is somewhat confirmed that there will be a hearing, let's make it clear. there seems to be optimism from our sources last night who have been involved in these hearing negotiations that they might be tentatively, key word tentatively moving towards a thursday hearing but there are still differences between dr. ford's team, legal team and senate republicans who will run the committee in terms of how they want the hearing to proceed obviously they have been haggling over the date. there's also a question of do you have not senators question

but another attorney's question, dr. ford and judge kavanaugh. dr. ford and her team have requested that senators do the questioning but grassley, chairman of the judiciary committee said he wants to reserve the option of having some female staff attorneys, key word female, do the questioning there. also disagreements about whether you can subpoena mark judge who is the prepared who was alleged to have been there when this incident -- alleged incident happened. we'll hopefully know more later today. >> dickerson: amy, the point about men doing the questioning immediately takes us to, this is fraught because of the subject and issue but also highly charged politically. >> absolutely. the thought of there are 11 men on republican side questioning a female about this issue is definitely fraught. the other issue i saw this in the "usa today" poll that ightefore the weekend, were asking voters about their

opinions of who comes out winners and losers in this. not surprisingly, everybody comes out looking not particularly good. plurality saying they think that these hearing ultimately are going to hurt republicans and their chances to hold the senate that it's going to hurt donald trump, but that by 20 points going to also hurt the #metoo movement. i think it's fundamentally the belief, i think this is where we are in this country, too, just one big mess. nobody's going to come out -- this idea that somebody is going to be a winner and someone is a loseer from this we still can't talk about the issue of sexual assault and sexual harassment, still so fraught now put it in with our polarized political time, it's a mess. >> dickerson: not just question of winners and losers, can we get to the truth in this venue given time that's past and facts of the case. put it this way in the atlantic about kavanaugh, he needs to prove a negative events long ago with sufficient persuasiveness that a reasonable

person will regard his service as untainted by the allegations against him and he needsnl argut themselves don't taint him. just give me a sense of the stakes of this thing. >> it also may well be impossible for this reason. remember before these allegations, the extent of partisanship was so deep and wide there were people who believed just brett kavanaugh, he invokes a certain type to people, right? there are many people on the left who see his face they think this just represents this brand of republicanism i find repelling. similarly on the other side of the street you have people whoever deeply suspicious of those seeking to undermine kavanaugh. kavanaugh someone who has been in conserveative legal circles for literally decades. he's been a mentor to many, many people. where as if you look at his accuser,rass see ford, isomeoneexence that theyh. this is so deep and it goes to the fact that democrats and republicans are now saying i don't want my child marrying a member of the other political party.

you have to understand this in the context of that serious political partisan animosity. >> dickerson: dan, we have had during the #metoo movement a lot of people have learned about why people do or don't come forward. the nature of what these kinds of events. everybody has said as nikki haley said we should listen to be grateful for people who come forward. into that conversation the president tweeted. i have no doubt that if the attack on dr. ford was as bad as she says charges would have been immediately filed with local law enforcement authorities by either already or her loving parents. that seems quite discordant with what we've spent the last year or more. >> it's completely discordant, john. it's also completely against what the president's advisors had been advising him and for a number of days he seemed to be restrained and careful in the way he was approaching this. and then he kind of fell off the wagon. but it is a reminder that this

is a partisan mom the #metoo movement has clashed into the polarized american electorate over something fundamental which is an appointment to the supreme court so when you wrap all of that in to what this hearing could be like as amy said, there's not going to be winners and losers. many people have already made up their mind about who is telling the truth in this case. so the difficulty of conducting a fair hearing in which people in one way or another have their minds changed seems very remote. >> dickerson: are we going to get into a situation where, how broad do you think the questioning will be? not just about the facts of this one particular night, how broad do you think we might get on these questions? >> we've talked a lot about just the political risk for republicans and their questioning and the hearing if it does happen. but i talked to a lot of democratic sources who are preparing their own questions for this hearing in terms of the uncomfortable questions this they will ask judge kavanaugh.

aides tell me they are preparing questions on his drinking, on this prep academy world of the 1908s, democrat in aides are reading mark judge's book where he talks about the drinking and that related behavior. it will be a difficult hearing, sources told us at the " washington post" that judge kavanaugh is very well aware of the types of questions that he will face in such a hearing and has been preparing for those questions. clearly it wall be a difficult situation around for everyone. >> dickerson: mitch mcconnell said basically kavanaugh will make it through. so how does he tell -- he said don't worry when this is all said and done he's go to make it through, how is he going to make it through and still have chuck grassley say this is going to be a fair opening. >> he has to say that because he's convinced that brett kavanaugh is telling the truth. were he to say otherwise it would be to suggest that kavanaugh is not being forthcoming. i find it hard to imagine him sayingerwise as wouldthrow intoh

confidence in him go all all all along. >> dickerson: what do you think the nair knows are, we've talked how fraught it's going to be. if everybody has made up their mind it looked like this nomination was on its way to confirmation. what do we think might plausibly happen? >> i think it's impossible to know at this point how a handful of senators ultimately will make the judgment. this is going to play out in front of the whole country but in many ways it's a focus on a handful of senators who will decide judge kavanaugh's fate in the end. i think those senators. some democrats, some republicans losely, g in their states and trying to understand better what are risks for themselves if they go one way or the other. they're going to be making a judgment on the credibility of both of these people when they

testify but they're also going to be making a political judgment about their own futures >> that's what it looked like in 1991 as well. i don't think as that was happen ing people were able to digest the impact that this hear hearing was having then one year later you have the rise of all these women candidates and name of the 1992 election was the year of the woman. we already have the year of the woman this year. but it feels a little bit like that game where you watch this ball you can't dwight figure out which t' to go, you're all prepared to go this way then pings over that way. anybody trying to be able to understand how people are processing this in live time is going to be very difficult. the repercussions are going to continue long beyond these hear ings. >> dickerson: seems to knee one of the reper cushion, is that inquiry in the service of trying to figure out the facts can be turned very quickly into making it look like you don't believe this happens. or that you mississippi understand the experience of women and the powerlessness they felt in these kind of situations. which empowers entire voting

block. >> also risks for democrats look ing like they are reallyinghe r. >> dickerson: we'll be back with more from our panel. stay with us.

>> dickerson: we're back with more from our panel. dan, i want to start with you, you were out in colorado talking to voters. what did you hear? >> well, couple of things, john. one on this issue of judge kavanaugh and dr. ford, a, very polarized reactions. if you talk to democrats or people who are thinking of voting democratic, they believe dr. ford. they are convinced that she is absolutely right and they think he should not be confirmed. if you talk to people who are supportive of president trump you get completely opposite view that this is an unfair allegation, they don't believe her, they have questions about the timing of it all of that. having said that, i think there's another element to that, that is i think that the people who are opposed to judge kavanaugh or inclined to vote democratic seem to feel more passionate about this. and that depending on how these hearings go that could further

energize, these are people who are already energized to be active in this campaign. many in ways that they had never been active before in terms of doing phone banks or canvassing or things like that. this is adding one more element to their energy. >> dickerson: in all of your reporting, you're trying to figure out when the hearings are going to be held, who is going to be doing the questions. people when they see situation like this, leave the politics out of it, this is about getting to the truth. in your conversations, give me a sense of how much the politics is a part of what people are thinking and is in their head as they're trying to simply hold a hearing to try to get to the bottom of a difficult question. >> you cannot divorce the politics from all this. i think what has been interesting to watch, we talk about how energized democrats are, how good prospects they have in november, we always caveat that with the senate has very different map than house does and broader national map. i thought what senator mc

caskill said in her announce ment that she will oppose judge kavanaugh to be very interesting, this is in the heat of the reporting. clearly a female senator, these are very important issues to her , former federal prosecuteor. she said the allegations do give me concern but that is not why i am voting against judge kavanaugh. she cited campaign finance as reason why she was poe he ising him some of the past writings and concerns on campaign finance so she is in a very difficult re election race she has to win over independents and trump voters. you just saw how she was just really trying to balance that line. but at the same time you have lot of democrats saying to their base and their voters if you are angry about what is happening in the senate know that it's because republicans are in charge. come out and vote. again cannot separate the politics from all of this. >> dickerson: we have six weeks before the voting starts. in the last election people had theories about things were work ing. many were not correct. what is your view of the way

things stand now in the election , what strikes you, what are you watching? >> i believe that you have a universe of voters, you don't have a vast universe of swing voters but a small universe. the romney-clinton voters, who switched from red to blue the last time around. that's roughly 3% of the electorate. you have so-called obama-trump voters, that is about 5% of the electorate. it does seem that democrats have done good job of consolidating the former group. if you look at the obama-trump voters that is a dicier proposition, particularly if you are looking at the rust belt, the great lakes, these are region where it seems as though some voters who might have been reluctant to back other republicans who are willing to give donald trump a shot, it's not entirely clear that he has galvanized those voters, or they are as energized as they had been in 2016.tysa pn flux. republican party of paul ryan, who is now heading for the exits

is party that really speaks to those voters and energizes them it's also not entirely clear that donald trump's focus on cultural issues that are polarizeing are necessarily motivating for that group of voters, that's very, very crucial to the party's future. >> president trump is staying on those rim immigration. >> he's going to keep talking about those things until they prove to not work. he had one speed, that's the speed he's always been on since the day he came down the escalator, day he was sworn in as president and today. he believes that that ultimately is important. if there's one thing that really we got wrong in terms of all the theories about 2016 it was that the enthusiasm clearly was not on the side of hillary clinton. we heard these anecdotal stories about driving across rural america you see barns painted with trump signs, nobody saw hillary clinton signs. you dismiss that as lawn signs don't vote. but it was -- what was clear this energy and enthusiasm for

trump was there in places that a lot of us don't live. what's clear ha year is that energy and enthusiasm is there for democrats. >> dickerson: last word, thanks, amy. thanks to all of you. we'll be right back. walking a dog can add thousands of steps to your day. walking this many?

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>> dickerson: for "face the nation" i'm john dickerson. i'll see you tomorrow and every morning this week on "cbs this morningism.