>> dickerson: welcome back to "face the nation." the mid term elections are less than a month away. so we'd like to welcome cbs news election and survey director an on this thee salvanto to share some new insights from our battleground tracker polling. let's start with the top big inside what is going to happen to the house? >> well, at the moment we've got the house with the democrats getting over the 218 seats that they would need to take it. if the election were today. then we have 26 seats in our model. that number has been creeping up slowly over the course of the summer as long as we've been doing these battleground trac trackers but it is still very heavily dependent on at least two things for the democrats. gentleman emphasize this enough.

it's dependent on turn out among people who don't typically vote in mid terms and dependent on a few meaningful cross over voters coming from having voted for donald trump to voting democrat now. >> dickerson: so what just remind you're not saying that it is chiseled in stone that will take the house. right now as trends go forward and looks like the democrats have a shot, run me through the two scenarios. >> what we did with this, because we want to emphasize for people that we're defining a range of possibilities here. especially still weeks out. we actually took the model and we reran it with the scenarios, one, how many seats could the democrats conceivably get if everything breaks their way. if all of these folks really do show up this all of these groups that their dependent on these younger voters these women voters all do stay the way they are. >> dickerson: first group are people who don't usually vote in mid term elections. >> that's right. dickerson: this is scenario,

actually they do this time. >> actually they do. make good on what they're telling us in the polling we put that in the model it goes as high as 235 seats they get a little bump from that. however, let's suppose they don't show up and that's reasonable assumption because they haven't done this before. frankly sometimes people do ov overreport this turn out propensity in the polling. if they don't show up these are folks maybe vote in pat tall but they didn't typically vote in the last mid term in 2010 and 2014. then the democrats don't make it, they don't get the 218 that they need and republicans hold the house. democrats don't get quite as many as crossover voters come back home a little bit to the ones who would like to pell a pollster they're going to vote but election day comes around, couple of jobs, whatever, they're not making it. these are the people who are the key to what you've identified which is maybe that's the key to whether democrats take the house or not.

>> they mean it when they say it now. life sometimes gets in the way. >> dickerson: you also measured this question of enthusiasm but more subtle crack at it. what did you find about enthusiasm? >> enthusiasm is one of those factors, it's mixed in to what you just described. people who really mean to vote but maybe something gets in the way. maybe enthusiasm helps you get over that hurdle. but really i want to say that enthusiasm is not the same thing as voting which you want to look at is that intent to vote. you can only push that lever so hard. or you can give it a click, still one vote. but what you want to look at is whether that enthusiasm then drives people across that finish line, actually gets them there. >> dickerson: your point is people can get more enthusiastic so they're snapping the lever off when they pull it but doesn't mean that additional person is going to vote necessarily. is there way thussial splits by party? >> the republicans have become more enthusiastic over the last couple of weeks.

that's important for them. they want to get that base turn out we think that helps move that. but at the same time the vote intention of both parties is up and it is even. it is even between democrats and republicans saying that they're showing up. >> dickerson: they're going to show up at the polls, both parties, a change more for republicans or democrats? >> they are equally up on intention of turning out. >> dickerson: now, let's go to groups within the polling, what are you learning and seeing about women and men and so-called gender gap? >> the gender gap is up. that means there's an increasing difference between how women are voting, in this case, more heavily for democrats how men are voting in this case more heavily for the republicans. we looked at why this is. one of the reasons is that women are among this group that are heavily cross pressured. they say that they think the economy is doing well.

normally that would advantage the party in power. they voted for donald trump and hillary clinton about even measures, but this year they also say that they're u unsatisfied with the direction of the country and they're bre breaking democratic for that reason. they also tell us that they feel like the republican party works against the interests of women and more for the interests of men. so on a personal level as a group identifier, group affiliation you see them brea breaking more heavily democratic right now. >> dickerson: what did we, if anything, learn about what the hearings of justice kavanaugh did to affect either women, men, enthusiasm, there were a lot of claims made, what does the data show? >> inserted a lot of anger. we see anger up on both sides. we see republicans saying they're increasingly angry about the prospect of the democrats winning. democrats say they're angry about the prospect of the republicans winning. anger does also correlate with

intention to turn out. feel more passionate about something, more likely to go and do it. so that's one determinate of turn out for certain. did it change anybody's mind, no. it does not appear like it changed anybody's mind. appeared to just comment what people already thought going in. >> dickerson: we know that the news cycle changes multiple times a day, what is your expectation, do you have anything in the data that tells us anything about whether that anger stays and sticks and takes people am the way to election day or is it acute momentary thing happening now? >> one factor to watch is the president. we are on pace now for the president to be a factor in people's voting, really would be historic levels. typically a majority maybe slight majority of people who voted mid terms say that the president is a factor in the vote either for or against. but this year we've got many more voters saying that they feel like the president is a factor. either for or against the fact is relatively split but no

question that he is on the ballot so to speak or in the minds of voters when they're going to the polls this year. >> dickerson: the voters are seeing it. >> like i said, at historic levels at this point. >> dickerson: anthony salvanto thank you for breaking it down for us we'll be seeing a lot of you in the next 20 days. >> thanks, john. dickerson: we'll be right back. no, i can't believe how easy it was to save hundreds of dollars on my car insurance with geico. cool, huh? yeah. he plays football, huh? yeah. d ype or more on car insurance. plaque psoriasis tremfya® is for adults with moderate to severe plaque psoriasis. with tremfya®, you can get clearer. and stay clearer. in fact, most patients who saw 90% clearer skin at 28 weeks

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bureau chief of "usa today." jonah goldberg is senior editor of the national review. and susan glasser writes about presidency and foreign policy for "the new yorker." susan glasser, i'll start with you on the question of jamal khashoggi. put all the pieces for this issue why it's a challenge for the white house and what you expect next. >> first of all, this is a story i think that has captured the attention of washington around the world it seems to say directly implicate not just this horrific question of this saudi dissident journalist who is self imposed exile writing for the "washington post," he's broken with the leadership of saudi arabia and appears to be very personal feud with the young crown prince ma'am made bin sa salman that's why it's a washington story. president trump his son-in-law jared kushner have made the relationship extremely personal

with saudi arabia, they have doubled down on america's traditional alliance with the saudis. jared kushner has a personal relationship with nbs as he's known, overriding concerns here that in fact he was not so much a liberal reformer as someone power and cracking down on dissident. you see this case kind of brin bringing all those concerns together. a question of course of the judgment of the trump administration. also the politics. >> dickerson: susan, the president came out said this is about jobs potentially. he says 110 billion in orders t already booked, but that that is really what he said i wouldn't want to do anything that would endanger that.therolicy makers y have other views on whether -- what price are you willing to put on the life of a u.s. resident who is dissident

journalist who is lured to his country's embassy and then dismembered, we believe. and with the idea that there may be recordings of this, i think escalates. it's been no surprise to anybody in washington that saudi arabia has very questionable record when it comes to human rights. but is this a bridge too far when it comes to these contrac contracts. you saw the discomfort in your interview with marco rubio with the way the president had expressed this concern of these contracts override whatever you might want to do to sanction saudi arabia if this is indeed what happened. >> dickerson: jonah, where do you think this fits in america first? because the president is saying something that maybe previous presidents wouldn't have said out loud but put america's interest, multi-faceted interests, saudi arabia is a great counter weight to iran for the united states and maybe just saying out loud what previousesv

said out loud. but there is -- there are american jobs to be thought about here that this is perfectly in keeping with president trump's vision of foreign policy. >> it is in keeping. he says i don't want to jeopardize this $110 billion, okay how many journal cyst, does saudi arabia get to kill before it might jeopardize it? problem with the rhetoric. also problem with the relationship. makes a lot of sense to me or at least perfectly defensible to have better relationship with saudi arabia to work this out or iran all those things or at least defensible. but has to be, when you get into this situation it is clear no one communicated to saudi arabia that if we're going down this path you cannot embarrass us or put us in a situation like this. and so now we're at this stage where there are no really very good options, the white house is iin a bind on this it's because they went down this cul-de-sac to begin with without a proper line of communication, someone led the saudia arabian government to believe that they could get away with this that

this wouldn't be a problem that's why it's a mess now. >> dickerson: susan, maybe some people arguing, what led the saudis to believe this is not a lot of scolding on what is happening in yemen. and that there were -- there's pattern here of basically saying either explicitly or implicitly we're not going to mess with your sovereignty. >> absolutely. this is going to emerge as a case study of why words do matter in the trump presidency. jonah's point is very important one, what have we seen that's different from donald trump, i would say that so much more of transactional view of america's position in the world. and that is something that's quite different, certainly you've had criticism of even barack obama for not emphasizing human rights as much as others. but you've never had a pres before who cae enemy of the people. now if you are the crown prince of saudi arabia do you think you might factor that in to about

what you can do with this particular dissident journalist when you have your good friend and ally the president say the journalists are enemies of the people. i think it's a really interesting example. also, values no longer figures in american foreign policy in the way that it has in the past. >> dickerson: although the president is -- was visited yesterday by pastor andrew br brunson who was released from turkey based on pressure the president had put. so the president supporters are rightly pointing out that were it not for the president he would still be in jail. >> the president knows correctly that he has gotten several people who were held in north korea and elsewhere got them returned to the united states, that's a fair point. although the bizarre element of that is moment i thought was not the prayer, because understandably the pastor would say a prayer of gratitude of being back but president then asking him, let me ask you, did you vote for me in 2016 when of

course he was in prison in turkey. >> again, your supporters, the thing is not that human rights has become another tool in the partisan artal, i think is the big transition there. that's a great example of it. >> dickerson: switch topics here to departure from the administration, u.n. secretary nikki haley is leaving, extraordinary this week to see an event at the white house where she said i've had a great time and all quite orderly. not seen all departures from the administers happen in orderly fashion, what do you make of it? >> it's great she wasn't left on a tarmac, for example. full disclosure, my wife looks for nikki haley and i'm conflicted and biased about th this. you can make a persuasive case that she's arguably -- she's probably the most popular politician in america right now when you look at her poll ratings among democrats and independents also among pro

trump conservatives she's a unifying figure. and i think her timing in all of this was either lucky or brilliant. to no other person who has worked for the trump administration has seen their reputation enhanced in the process. and she is getting out while the getting is good, by doing it this way, won't look like she's abing -- abandoning a sinking ship if the mid terms go south on republicans. looking forward to find out what happens with her next. >> dickerson: what jonah says is amazing when you think where nikki haley was in 2016 giving republican response to the democratic president, she talked about angry voices within the republican party which nobody mistook but a shot for donald trump. she goes into the cabinet now goes into the administration is now leaving managed pretty nicely, give me your thoughts on that then also -- just give me your thoughts on that.

>> we obsess about 00 presidential line up if you want to look farther down the road i think you'd have to include nikki haley on that list, which is a remarkable thing for minority woman to win election as governor in south carolina then win re-election then criticized president trump then turn around become one of his most prominent spokesperson, shows a remarkable nip bellness. she emerges from this as you say enhanced and can you think of another example of someone who has come into the administrati administration, served the president, had the president praise her and emerge without criticism really even from the -- >> a point that sue made earli earlier. she was the one figure in the administration who did talk about values and human rights around the world. and got away witness in a way that someone else in the administration might not have. >> dickerson: what does that mean, susan glasser, for the foreign policy -- does this tell us anything about the current make up of the foreign policy

team then what does it mean going forward? >> a quick thing. i nimble is a very chairable record for somebody who has really -- donald trump hasn't changed but many have how they approach and frame. she did the oval office things, jared kushner was hidden genius the same week that the saudi controversy has arisen. what is the administration's foreign policy increasingly these days. i think we see a situation where it's less and less true that there's a trump administration foreign policy and a trump foreign policy. it seems president trump got rid of rex tillerson, first second of state, got rid of h.r. m mcmaster and replaced them. most both of them come out of more classic, very conservative, very hard line republican foreign policy establishment. they differ on their own policy positions from president trump he's made it very clear that he

doesn't want to have any more public disagreements and it appears that they have not challenged him as much, even privately as their predecessors did. nikki haley did speak up repeatedly at various points in time where she disagreed on russia, for example. and on other aspects, i think you're going to see a more tru trumpian approach to the united nations that also john bolton very hawkish national security advisor made entire career of u.n. bashing. they are talking about downgra downgrading the united nations portfolio with absence of nikki haley probably no longer going to be a cabinet level position. >> dickerson: consolidation there. let's switch to politics. susan page, the "usa today" ran an op ed on the question of health care that was -- take frit there. >> this was the editorial page about -- i thought it was good that we gave the president a platform, arguments he's making

in rallies and as he campaigns for candidates in the mid terms. there was a big fewer or because it was not a -- there wasn't a fact cr aders. i thought that was legitimate criticism i am glad that we posted a fact check about it. it does show how much inflammatory president trump is for both sides. and how much he defines this mid term election that we're going to see in a few weeks. >> dickerson: in the old days if a president had written an ap ed that could have been fact checked somebody would have maybe lost a job or been embarrassment, there is a theory out there now that this in polarized world we're in that you in fact want to insert some things to get fact checked you'll get another music that earl that the people you're trying to rile up are going to believe you if there is a mountain of fact checking. the second round which there is fact checking actually ends up distributing the message to a larger audience and that that has been good, do you see that

in play? >> it might well be. i wrote a column abhis on hillary clinton coming in very late in the early kavanaugh controversy about getting something completely wrong that kavanaugh said about birth control. and it was very strange that she would jump in after had been debunked. i made this argument that we sort of live in the republican trolling now, benefits you more to be -- world of negative polarization, to be attacked by your enemies is a benefit in and of itself. sort of spreading model of tru trumpism that is affecting a lot of our politics and media. >> dickerson: yet susan glasser we have in our battleground tracker poll, what issue will affect your vote, most important issue to you in your vote in 2 2018, health care is number one ahead of the economy and ahea ahead -- at 70%, economy 67% and supreme court at 57%. president is at least taking about an issue that people really seem to care about.

>> that's right. it's interesting that he started to do so as you know his major health care initiative failed tf obamacare which was something that president trump as well as republican party for years campaigned upon, still interesting bashing the late senator john mccain for his vote on that, he did that in interview with fox this week, because he understands that they haven't come up with a convincing answer to it. interestingly tax cuts doesn't figure on that list. i did -- call it crazy or what you want effort of binge watc watching all six hours and 51 minutes of president trump's six rallies, there was another one last night for my -- that sevouf republican campaigns generally came in about the 51 minute ma mark. to his rallies. these are not --

>> best for last. >> i think you mention the issues that are top of the list, health care, it's not really an issue campaign if you listen to president trump frankly if you listen to voters in your polish u is president trump. more than any mid term election that i can remember, this genuinely for both republicans and democrats is a vote about president trump it seems to me. >> that's in part by design. when president obama was u unpopular he started to stay out of the news. when president george w. bush was unpopular he tried to stay away. president trump is unpopular as they were he is pushing himself out there in way we've never seen a president for mid term election. for a president who has been four or five days, it makes it impossible for this election not to be about him. >> one interesting data points was that fox news stopped ca dkerson: have to enit

there. we didn't talk about kanye west. we'll be back in a moment. we've hadfor a long time.is in san francisco and half-measures haven't fixed it.

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>> dickerson: that's it for us today. thanks for watching we'll be back in two weeks. for "face the nation" i'm john dickerson. i'll see you tomorrow and all this week on "cbs this morning." captioning sponsored by cbs captioned by media access group at wgbh access.wgbh.org we go into classrooms and we teach entrepreneurial skills and leadership skills. when you actually create a business when you're in your teens, it raises your self-confidence. junior achievement is really unique because they inspire young people to think creatively. the citi foundation's pathways to progress initiative helped us reach kids in over 50 countries. citi has also loaned us their executives and their employees to help us deliver our programs. our youth are three times more likely to become entrepreneurs and they're more likely to create jobs for others. they are going to bring an entrepreneurial spirit to making our world a better place.

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