>> dickerson: welcome back to "face the nation." from cbs news election headquarters in new york, for a look at the political landscape in the final two days, weed like to welcome amy walter, ed o'keefe, and anthony salvanto. anthony, let's start with you. okay, so we've talked about this 225 for democrats. so what else inside those numbers, let's talk first about say young voters, right? so this is an important part of the democratic coalition. what are your numbers showing about their participation and also your survey numbers but also what we've learned from the early vote. >> what we've learned from the early vote is it has gotten younger compared the past mid-terms. the question is is it young

enough. >> so far it feels like it is not young enough some there will be some factors coming into election day. big picture, in the polling, the democrats are highly dependent on people who say they have not voted in mid-terms before. that's going to be about 20% of their vote if those polls are born out on election day. if thool u we've rerun the models, and the republicans hold the house. the republicans hold the house. dems only get to 215, a it will gain but not close enough. >> amy, there has been a lot going on, there have been checks written by people, there have been special elections. how do you see the electorate shaping up based on that longer history? >> well, that longer history is what brought democrats to this moment. their enthusiasm gap that they had for much of 2017 and 2018 allowed them to do the following things. one, they got a lot of candidates who announced they were going to run for congress in places they had never competed in before. so they expanded the playing field from what looked lying

early in 2017 it was going to be 25 or 30 seats to about 60 seats now that republicans hold where democrats are competitive. and the second thing, and this is very important now for us, is the money. i have never seen so much money going to house candidates, and silt going to those candidates directly. it's not just the campaign committees or the big names that are getting these dollars. these are candidates who 20 years ago never thought they were going to run for congress. now they're sitting on $3 million, $4 million war chests. that has kept democrats not just competitive in someplace, but in many places they are outraising and they're running more ads than the republicans who are the incumbents. that doesn't happen in a normal election. >> dickerson: as i know from reading amy walter is that in the last quarter of fund-raising, 112 republican-held seats, democrats outraised them. >> that's right. >> dickerson: which means it's broad. >> that's right. and it's keeping them in the game in places where quite

frankly looking at the numbers they probably would have been knocked out, democrats would have, because these districts are not easy. they're republican-leaning districts. >> dickerson: so they're republican-leaning districts. republicans hold them. incumbents have an advantage on election day. so what's holding the republicans together? >> well, i think about the people i talked to on friday in indiana with the president. you ask them, what is this election about, an open-ended question, leave it up to them. every single person in line i talked to said immigration. they're concerned about this caravan that's coming and security issues generally. and... >> dickerson: a caravan that's 800 miles away. >> more than 800 miles away and is mostly women and children. if it's not that, it's just security generally and how the identity and the fact rick of the country may change as people like that are allowed to get in. but you've talked to democrats, and when i was in wisconsin, i talked to a woman who has devoted hours of her time to manning an office in milwaukee, and i said, why do you do this? she said, very simple, i want to protect my obamacare. you go gown to waukesha counties

a few miles away. you talk to a republican woman doing the same thing and she says, "it's because i want to be proud of my country again." so identity and security for republicans, issues like health care for democrats. >> i'll jump in on demographics. you're right, democrats have always have this demographic aspiration that doesn't necessarily turn up at the polls, but republicans have a demographic challenge in mid-terms too, which is the base, for donald trump, are, yes, older and whiter, but they tend not to have higher levels of education, and those voters also don't tend to show up in a mid-term election year some what trump is doing right now in ginning up the base, we talk a lot about who he needs to get out the vote, it's those voters who he has turn out forim in 2016 who most likely would sit out a mid-term election. >> dickerson: anthony, build on, this but let me add one more thing to it, which is there are those who wear the red make

america great hats, they go to the rallies and show up in force. there was part of the republican coalition in 2016 said, not quite so sure about donald trump, but i rally don't like hillary clinton. that helped motivate the republican vote. where are those voters in this question on tuesday? >> that's where to the extent there is crossover, that's where it's coming from. we have talked about all fall these voters who say the economy is good, give the president credit for the economy, and yet say they are unsatisfied with the direction of the country. that's a surprising split. and they are trending toward the democrats. and, you know, again, the picture of these districts, when you get to election night an we start talking about this place, that place, they're going to be suburban districts. there will be an argument going on about what the republican party looks like now. these districts were carved out for the republicans of ten years ago. but the republican party since then has gotten a little less of demographics, more rural and emergency working class. do they still fit into these districts, can they still win

them? it's going to be an overarching theme onas inarris poll this week i republicans, do cobe more a supr of donald trump or more a supporter of the republican party. 46% said donald trump. the party and chair woman mcdaniel is just at 25%. so this is donald trump's party. >> it's donald trump's party and his election. you have to remark about just how amazing it is that we've gotten to this point. if we go back to 2015 and look at donald trump's favorable ratings among republicans in 2015, something around 40%. now he has in the last gallup poll i think an 89% approval rating from republicans. that's what makes this election also so different from traditional mid-terms is mid-term, the party that's in the white house, less motivated to t they're excited about their candidate as they were in the presidential. this year republicans are united around him in a way we didn't see with obama in 2010, and

than say republicans were in 2006. >> and not only is the president on the ballot, which is on voters minds new york larger numbers than in typical mid term, but the number saying they want to support him is larger than it's been in typical mid-terms. often the opposition number outweighs the number in terms of is the president factor in your vote. >> dickerson: ed, women, both on the ballot and as voters, what's your take of what we should be looking for on tuesday? >> either way we'll see more women elected into congress, which changes the governing dynamic come january. you may see as many as 26 women elected to the senate that. would be a record high. you'll see an increase certainly in the democratic ranks, but based on projections right now, there is a good chance that the number of house republican women will be so depleted that they're down to like two hands basically, which is an embarrassing low in a year where so many women are anticipated to vote, not only in the suburbs, but really all across the country.

>> dickerson: thanks very much, ed. amy will stick with us. anthony, you'll be able to table now until thursday or something i think. anyway, don't go away. we'll be right back with our political panel. ing, so we know how to cover almost anything. even a huge drag. nothing worth losing sleep over, because we covered it. talk to farmers. we know a thing or two because we've seen a thing or two. ♪ we are farmers. bum-pa-dum, bum-bum-bum-bum ♪ whooo! want to take your next vacation to new heights? tripadvisor now lets you book over a hundred thousand tours, attractions, and experiences in destinations around the world! like new york! from bus tours, to breathtaking adventures, tripadvisor makes it easy to find and book amazing things to do.

and you can cancel most bookings up to 24 hours in advance for a full refund. so you can make your next trip... monumental! and the car has become anis now accessory to the smartphone. ride hailing, car sharing, carpooling... ...mobility services are proliferating. and there's a new generation who don't seem to want to own cars in the first place. it all means massive disruption to the car industry, cities, businesses and investors. ♪ ♪ amy walt is with the "cook political report," ben domenech is the publisher of "the

federalist," shawna thomas is the washington bureau chief, and unanimous is our chief congressional correspondent. she spent most of the week in florida and georgia on the campaign trail. glad to have nancy. ben, i want to start with you. the chairwoman of the republican party did not want to touch that ad run by the president's campaign with a 20-foot pole. so that's one thing, which you can address, but also it represents two closing messages here. chairwoman mcdaniel wants the talk about the economy and the strong numbers. the president wants to talk about something else. >> it's really telling that this is the closing weekend of campaign season. the president just got all these great numbers in terms of the economic report that came out. we have wage growth that we haven't seen in more than a decade in terms of the experience of the american economy, and yet that doesn't seem to be the thing that he wants to talk about at all. that's not the thing that republicans are really talking about. this is an efor them is a base election.

what they know is what gets their base out there and excited and ramped up is questions of security and questions of toughness, questions of law and order, and not, hey, you've got 3.1% wage growth. >> you have the same exact problem on the other side, which is when you hear an fda like, that when you hear some of the things the president says, people who are black, hispanic are saying this sounds a little bit racist to me, and that can gin people up on the democratic side, too. >> dickerson: not only, that you had republicans saying this sounds racist to me, so it wasn't even -- it was extraordinary to see so many republicans come out and just straight up say this was a racist appeal. nancy, you've been out there, we shape this race in a lot of ways, but out in the real world, what are you seeing? how much are democrats talking about health care and not taking the bait on some of these values issues, or just what are you seeing? >> health care is huge. in fact, over the course of the election, democrats have spent about $90 million on ads about

health care. they think that this is the winning issue. obamacare is much more popular now than it was even a few years ago. at this point everyone knows someone with a preexisting condition who is getting coverage because of the affordable care act. everyone watched republicans fumble this issue last year when suddenly they had the opportunity to come up with a plan that was panned by most health care group, and people are worried about protections for people with preexisting conditions going away. democrats believe that that is going to be a motivating factor for enough voters, and some of the polling bears that out. >> dickerson: shawna, the democrats have shown a remarkable -- i think of will rodgers' line, "i'm not a member of an organized party, i'm a democrat" -- have shown an ability to not be pulled away. >> i was in idaho, which is not a bastion of democratic public i

understand, but medicaid expansion is on the ballot. even with conservatives, they seem to be going in the direction of voting for entrenching obamacare within idaho. and while that doesn't mean there will be a democratic governor of idaho, that does mean there is something to that health care message that speaks to a lot of people and democrats know that. in some of these swing districts, that could help them turn some of the republicans their way possibly. >> it's also why the issue about the economy and the tax cuts isn't getting as much traction, not just from the president, but even in some of these congressional races, because what you hear from voters a lot is that's great, maybe have a little more money, but you know what i'm spending it on? my prescription drugs, or i'm spending it on my health care costs. the cost of living is going higher than what i'm getting in in my salary or whatever i got from the tax cut. so it's a very difficult message for republicans to sort of nuance this discussion about how great the economy is with people who are actually worrying about the most salient thing in their

life and the thing they probably spend the most money on other than food, which is their health care. >> i was down in florida this week talking to carlos carvell low, which is a classic spring district in florida. he says he wish ttion president would talk more about the economy. we're 3.7% unemployment. we haven't seen a level that low is lyndon johnson. but the president himself admitted this week, it's boring to talk about the economy. he would rather gin people up and talk about immigration. and that's really difficult for a republican like corbello in a swing district. >> dickerson: that's why he said, that caravan really ginned up our base. mike kaufman, sixth district of colorado, another tough seat. one of his strategist says in the last week the president has behaved like a guy trying to build a political majority in the ozarks. the purposeful provocation makes an already grim situation in the suburbs even more difficult. is this a president running in a save the senate strategy which hurts in suburban districts that

shawna was talking about? >> absolutely. that's because the senate matters more to the president than a lot of these different house members, many of whom he doesn't know. he doesn't have a relationship with them. he knows who jon tester. is he knows who heidi heitkamp is, and he knows who claire mccaskill is and he wants them out. but i think republicans need to keep in mind, one real thing we'll learn in this mid-term is how effective the president's strategy is in comparison to the approach that president obama used. the problem with president obama is when he was on the ballot, his base came out. they showed up. this is now president trump trying to figure out whether he can do the same thing in an election when he's not on the ballot, which was the same problem that was a real challenge during the obama years for other democrats. >> in the exit polls in 2010, democrats did not come out for president obama to defend him in the way that our polls show that republicans are coming to defend donald trump. >> that's where that low propensity voter that i talked

about early with anthony, especially these voters on the republican side, they came out for donald trump, don't traditionally come out, an issue like the economy, that's not going to motivate them to get out to vote. on immigration, that's going to be tissue. the question, though, is there are sort of these different tiers that i'll be watching on election night. we talked about suburban districts, especially those suburban districts that hillary clinton carried, northern virginia suburbs, philadelphia suburbs, thankfully they are on east coast time, new jersey, but the districts i'm most interested are the ones that president obama carried but then trump carried, those districts like for example in maine, another east coast state, big maine, big, big has democratic d.n.a. this is a labor stronghold there. they've been voting for democrats forever, but like so much of working class america ve trump in 2016.ers in that going tll usre st an okay night, t

coalition. do they show up only when trump is on the ballot, or have they also decided they're not as enamoured with trump in some of these places that have democratic d.n.a. than in some of the other parts of the country like the south. >> look, let's face it, democrats have almost nowhere to go but up. republicans have a near historic majority in the house right now. they picked up 63 seats back in 2010. they added to it after that. so if democrats don't pick up seats on tuesday night, then the party has even bigger problems than i thought. >> dickerson: an the historic anomaly. hold these thoughts. we'll take a quick break and be right back with more from our

here are the facts.leading attacks against prop c. the city's chief economist says prop c will "reduce homelessness" by creating affordable housing, expanding mental-health services, and providing clean restrooms and safe shelters and strict accountability measures to make sure every penny goes to solving our homeless crisis. vote yes on c. endorsed by the democratic party, nancy pelosi, and dianne feinstein. >> dickerson: and we're back with more from our panel. shawna thomas, you've been looking at the 25th district in california. why? >> we've been following katie hill around since february to track how a conditional campaign works. but what's interesting, this is one of those districts that went for hillary clinton in 2016 and elected a republican congressman. it's an incredibly tight race. it's gotten tighter in the last

causigration or race-baiting. it seems like iec a g tepeal he0 miles from l.a. proper. they vote on their pocketbooks. it's kind of standard politics, which i have to admit, i was happy to see. >> dickerson: sure, regular old politics. >> their pocketbook and gas. >> dickerson: exactly. nancy, what are you going to be looking for on tuesday night? >> well, i'm watching for a couple things. first of all, women, i think that's going to be really fascinating. anecdotally we see that women particularly educated women have been turned off by some of the things that president trump has to say. they were turned off by the kavanaugh nomination spectacle. are they really moving toward the democratic party, or do they come home at the end of the day? i think for me another thing is independent voters and whether president trump really is the kryptonite to independent voters that we've seen in some of the polling recently.

and then finally, this split between the house and the senate. it's very possible that even if democrats take control of the house, they could lose a seat or two in the senate, and what does that mean for the balance of power in washington and the ability of congress to get anything done over the next two years. >> dickerson: do you think that republicans are taking lessons from what the president is doing and maybe the lessons will all be determined by the final outcomp let's say republicans have a better night? what will politicians see from the president's strategy here at the end? i mean, you know, what learnings will they take from that going forward? >> i think there will be frankly one of the lessons they will take is that it doesn't help to sort of shy away from cultural war. i think president has really wrapped his arms around the cultural war in america in way that we haven't seen a politician do before in the modern era. i think the lesson a lot of different republican politicians are taking away from that is this is something they should be eager for inch terms of what i'm kind of going to be looking at, early on in the night i think we'll know how big of a wave

we're going to see thanks to some of the kind of pairs of seats in some of these early east coast states. i look at something like florida virginia 5 and virginia 7, if both of those go to democrats, that teens we're probably in for a blue tidal wave. historically, that is what we should expect to happen in this election. we should expect it to break in the direction of democrats a w . on the flip side, i look at a state like florida, and anticipating that t kind of historical ticket splitting that you've seen there could easily result in a situation where perhaps rick scott wins the senate seat and andrew gillum wins the governorship. that's going to be a huge factor in terms of determining things post-the next census and everything else that happens in a case that's critical for the presidential bid. >> dickerson: you've been down in florida. what have you noticed in florida that's different from every other time we're obsessed with florida? >> they're having this marquee race at the top of the ticket, this governor's race that is driving so much. i think senator nelson, for

example, would be in much worse shape if he didn't have this incredibly dynamic campaigner in andrew gill -- gillum at the top of the ballot. if nelson does win on tuesday night, he will have gillum in part to thank for that. but i also would be very curious to see, some of the strategy for andrew gillum for someone like a stacy abrams in georgia, for a beto o'rourke in texas has to do with fundamentally changing the electorate in their state. they have a lot of confidence they're doing that. we see some anecdotal signs in early voting that they might be ripe, but it's a peril to reed too much into early voteing. but that is going to be fascinating, as well. at the end of the day, did they manage to really change the electorate in their states, bring out hundreds of thousands of new voters, minority voters, who don't typically vote in mid-term election, let alone presidential elections. >> that will set the tone for 20 quite frankly, because for all the talk about what's the president doing to see if he can get his base out and what

lessons are republicans going to take from this, what lessons going to take if they succeed or if they fail about the kind of candidates they need on top of the ticket in 2020. >> the lessons from the culture war you're talking about, the republicans learned that embracing that works. if we see an amazing turnout of minority voters in florida and georgia, stacy abrams and andrew gillum win, that shows that culture war may not be a good thing to embrace come 2020. >> dickerson: what role do you think the president has played if atath

for the 250k service members who transition out of the u.s. military every year... ...one of the toughest parts is the search for a job that takes advantage of the skills you've gained while serving. you can now search with the phrase 'jobs for veterans' directly on google... ...and then enter your military occupational specialty code.

google brings together job openings from across the web that match the skills you gained in your military role. just click to apply and use your experience to guide your future.

recently, more than $20 million has been spent in the race for superintendent of public instruction to attack my friend tony thurmond's record. well, i've worked with tony, and no one is more qualified to lead our state's schools. that's why tony thurmond is the only candidate endorsed by classroom teachers and the california democratic party. because tony will stand up to the donald trump-betsy devos agenda and has always protected our local public schools. join me in voting for tony thurmond. let's put our kids first.

the following is an important paid program about humana medicare advantage prescription drug plans, sponsored by humana. at humana, we believe it's never too late to learn the abc's when it comes to medicare. i know there's the alphabet: a, b and d. what exactly does that mean? actually, there's a, b, c and d. a is referring to hospitalization, okay? b is basically outpatient, doctor's visits, rehab visits. those kinds of things. oh, okay! d is the drug care. gotta have that. so, drug supplements. gotta have that. and then c is an advantage plan that covers a, b and sometimes d. life keeps changing and so do you. but if your lifestyle evolves, is your