was going sort of too small and being too timid. this time around, is there enough money being thrown at this problem? >> i think there is in terms of what the fed can captioning sponsored by cbs do. i think our chairman is being very, very aggressive. he has learned from our experience in 2008, and the whole federal reserve is being as aggressive as possible. i believe congress is also >> brennan: i'm merg i'm margaretbrennan. on this easter sunday, the being very progressive. but it goes back to the u.s. leads the rest of the world of the number of progression of the virus. if we're going to have coronavirus cases. economic distress until we with more than half a million cases and at least have a vaccine, then it is going to be up to congress 20,000 dead, the u.s. has to keep coming back to set grim new global provide support to the american people. benchmarks. the death count hasdo jusdays we can't shut down the economy for 18 months, but and for the first timen we need to find ways of history, all 50 states getting the people who are healthy, at lower risk, have been declared major back to work, and then time.ter areas at the same providing the assistance to those who are most at the covid-19 pandemic has risk to are going to have to be quarantined or illuminated the weaknesses isolated for the in our society: job shortages, lack of foreseeable future. leadership, and economic and racial disparity, just >> brennan: your colleague was with us last to name a few. week, and he says it lies

it is a sharp slap in the face, calling attention to everything america struggles to deal with all fully with technology, at once. getting people tested and yet despite the anxiety, to wear a badge. fear, and sadness, there is that your guidance, are hopeful signs that america's efforts to stay too? >> i would love it. home and stay apart are but i talked to some working. >> as encouraging as they health experts that say it are, we have not reached is a fantasy that we can the peak. and so every day we need to continue to do what we test tens of millions of did yesterday and the week people a day. i don't think we should before and the week before put all of our eggs in the that. mass testing basket. >> brennan: but as that we should also invest curve flattens, so does fully in vaccines and our economy. therapies. but i think we're going to president trump says he'll listen to advice about need to be smart about how whether to lift directives we start to reopen parts to get people back to of the economy, with those at lowest risk, until that work, but in the end its his call. capacity and testing and >> president trump: the vaccines and therapies metrics are right here. that's all i can do. come on line. i think we need an all of and i only hope to god it the above approach because we don't know where we're is the right decision. going to have the >> governor: the worst breakthrough. thing that can happen is >> brennan: many americans this month had we make the misstep and we to suspend their mortgage payments. they just couldn't pay let our emotions get ahead because of what their reality is. of our logic and fact. i know jay powell, the >> brennan: we'll talk head of the federal reserve, as they had sayer said to former f.d.a.

commissioner scott godlieb about planning for a they're watching them. recovery. plus we'll talk with new what is the risks that jersey governor fill we're looking at some kind murmurphilmurphy. of housing crisis, financial crisis? >> if it goes long enough, in chicago, african-americans are dying of the virus at people don't pay their almost six times the rate mortgages, the coffee shop of whites. we'll talk with mayor lori doesnt pay their landlord, and it ends up lightfoot. new york cardinal timothy rolling into the banking dolan will joining us on center. right now the banks are this easter sunday. well capitalized, but if this goes on long enough, ♪ >> brennan: as we look it could produce strains at how easter and passover in the banking sector, and are being celebrated the fed and congress and treasury would have to around the world. step in to make sure that it's all just ahead on the beapgz ar banks are sound. "face the nation." >> brennan: when you say "long enough," what is the ♪ timeline you're worried about? >> i'm focusing on 18 months. we're looking around the >> brennan: welcome to world, and as they relax "face the nation." it is easter sunday, and the fourth day of the restrictions, the virus flares up again. passover. americans have endured you don't know who is what officials had spreading the disease and predicted to be a who isn't. we could have these waves of flareups, controls, devastating week. this country and the world

continue to struggle with flareups, controls, until we actually get a therapy the spread of the or a vaccine. i think we should be coronavirus and how to focusing on an 18-month prepare for what is next. we begin our coverage with strategy for our health care system and our cbs news national economy. if it ends up being shorter than that, that's correspondent mark strassman. >> good morning, margaret. great. we should prepare for the for many spirit out worst-case scenario. americans this easter sunday and the fourth day >> brennan: all right. of passover is a test of neel kashkari, thank you for your insight. faith. living with this pandemic we'll be back in a moment. for weeks has them rattled for their health and for their lifestyle. in new york, nearly 800 people a day have been dying from covid-19, a staggering number. that level of sorrow may continue this week. unthinkably, bodies go unclaimed. many more may be buried in this potter's field in the bronx. what is encouraging: new york's new hospitalizations for viral patients have declined. this pandemic spread here has slowed. >> governor: the curve of the increase is continuing to flatten. the number of hospitalizations appears to have hit a apex.

>> reporter: it is a curve that is flattening but also broadening. denver is building a field hospital in its convention centre. the new covid-19 cases has almost doubled in the last week, just like new cases in the cities of chicago and washington, d.c. they have more than doubled in miami, philadelphia, and baltimore. >> this is going to be one of our most dangerous times every, this weekend, and over the next week or so. this would be the worst possible sometime for people to be violating executive orders and to be congregating together. >> families are congregating in food banks, a new front line in cont, unemployment. >> i'll starve before my kids do. >> reporter: it is from los angeles to pittsburgh's, people waited hours for 25 pounds of food. 10,000 families jammed bumper to bumper in san

antonio. and look at the lines in california. in three weeks, the state has lost more than two million jobs. >> i lost my job, so this a great place to be and help out, give out food. >> brennan: the easter >> reporter: in miami, and passover holidays are jobless people ignored a little different this year. for a look at how some social distancing to file for unemployment. america has lost americans are finding solace in faith, we go to 16.8 million jobs in three the archbishop of new weeks, that is roughly 11% of the u.s. workforce. ardinal timothy and greater than all of dolan. cardinal, thank you for the jobs gained in the joining us. >> margaret, a blessed past six years. easter to you and your new unemployment numbers out this thursday will add listeners. >> brennan: thank you. to the misery. this is easter week. no wonder homeowners can't it is passover, and it will soon be ramadan as pay mortgages. well. in one month, the national how would you counsel people to observe their faith while in isolation. forbearance rate has >> well, you used the word spiked almost 1,000%. the good news for millions "faith," and that's key. of americans: the i.r.s. faith, of course, doesn't has begun depend on things physical. direct-depositing up to and we have faith these $1200 in their bank days that even though we accounts. it is federal relief can't, sadly, get to the st recipients synagogue or to our parish got theirs yesterday. this atlanta baptist churches, we can still be church behind me has 2200 in union with god through members. prayer, through sincerity,

the two online services today will offer a easter message that is timely in through earnestness, and through charity. and thanks be to god, so this crisis: the triumph many are using the of hope. >> brennan: that is mark technological advances, strassman reporting from atlanta. live-streaming, radio, tv, we want two go to people are plugging in at elizabeth palmer in overwhelming numbers to be part of a community at london. easter and passover. >> margaret, with coronavirus now on every >> brennan: you are the archbishop there, as we continent, except said, of new york. antarctica, this is an that means you're easter like no other and administering to the people right at the christians everywhere are inme, the pope saidmise. imp gs i c thinkse familieseaktof who cannot hold funeral services, hold all of the rituals for the people mass. and father riphos took to they just lost. we saw those pictures from new york of mass graves. the road to bless these are things you see in war zones, you don't parishioners. here in the u.k., the see in the richest country archbishop of canterbury in the world. led the easter service how do you grieve without online from his kitchen. that ritual surrounding the great cities of the death? world are eerily empty >> it's difficult. this weekend, from jst as you have faith

istanbul to dehli to that the person you love is still enjoying eternal paris, all of them locked down as authorities life and is still with grapple with ways to you, so our faith needs to control this infection. in brazil, which now has kick in that even if we can't be next to mom and the highest death toll in dad or grandma and the southern hemisphere, they're going for public grandpa, and even if we fumigation in the slums. can't embrace the family so are they in the streets at a time of mourning, our of siberia, with a faith tells us we're still i'veerienced myself retrofitted jet-engine sprayer, more style than i've had t buy ests a peop substance. developing countries have looked to the world health organization for guidance in this crisis. gre sites, and i say to but the w.h.o. itself is them, you know, your grief under fire for failing to is complicated because not only have you lost someone challenge china on its you cherished, you were lack of transparency over unable to be next to them in their last moments, and the covid-19 outbreak. you're unable even to w.h.o. director tedro mourn and cry and hug one another here at grave cabrios denied the charge. >> my focus is saving sites. this is an eedenhanced, edrih i, lives. we don't do politics in w.h.o. we don't. >> but as fear grows whenever w t, whnever got globally and president trump calls america's that emptiness, you know who wants to fill it: god. multimillion w.h.o.

i hope it is an invitation from him, if as we're contribution into question, politics is empty, he will fill. bound to dominate. it has been a tense week >> brennan: pope francis gave an interview lately and he said about the in british politics as virus, it is a time for boris johnson was admitted to intensive care with integrity. what does that mean from a coronavirus. but we just heard in the social justice perspective? >> i integrity means a last few minutes he has actually been discharged from the hospital and is going off to his country residence to recoup. connectiveness. it is mirrored in the way we act. margaret. the opposite of integrity >> brennan: we turn now is disintegration when our to new jersey governor phil murphy, who joins us life falls apart, because there is a division, a from redbank. fracturing between the inside and the out. governor, good morning to you. we heard from dr. fauci the holy father is asking us to integrity. you see it. you see it when people discover an interior that there would be a strength. rolling reopening of the and they're telling me that, margaret. u.s. economy by neth they're saying, these days month next i'm alone in my apartment, i'm missing all of the month. is new jersey ready for things i usually count on, that. >> governor: good and yet i've discovered morning, margaret. i'll be the hpiest deep down within a resilience, strength and new jersey, if not virtual and talent i america, if we are. didn't know i had.

but any sort of reopening i'm discovering the warmth and recovery depends first and tenderness and love i had for family and and foremost on a complete friends, even though i can't be with them. health care recovery, getting that sequencing right. and, they'll tell me, i'm i think based on the data and the facts that we're even rediscovering a faith seeing is incredibly that had grown somewhat essential. if we either transpose dormant as i sensing god's those steps or we start to presence and talking to get back on our feet too him and feeling his soon, i fear, based on the data we're looking at, we could be throwing gasoline 's an ty, whd, an on the fire. so the pain is awful, we when that flows out to the get that in terms of way we love and treat other people, as we see so unemployment, small businesses, but based on how we see this evolving, radiantly all over in our health care workers, in i'm all for an economic recovery, but it has got to be on the back of a our first responders and full health care recovery. neighbors who are looking out for one another, >> brennan: it sounds like you're saying, not so shopping and checking on one another. soon. you said yesterday in a i think we've got an press conference that your iny, a uni of rposer sastate is literally on edge confident that's what pope when it comes to the supply of ventilators you francis meant. >> brennan: there is no vaccine to stop this need right now. virus, even when we get have you asked the white house for more? through the worst of it. how are you going to >> governor: we have. and i have to say that the reopen church doors? are you going to keep the white house, over the past number of weeks, has

social distancing, and for delivered a series of someone this morning who ventilators and other wants to get in their car and go to any denomination personal protective equipment, but we continue to be shy on all fronts. to worship, what would you tell them before they make and we are constantly and that decision? >> well, god gave us persistlpersistently not just common sense. and god told us we have to pay attention to the common good. asking the white house the decision i would make from the federal stockpile about opening our for more supporttinover every se churches, and please, god, in new jersey and, it is as soon as it can frankly, around the world. be, but we have to listen to the experts, the >> brennan: you have a call with the white house physicians, the scientists, we have to scheduled for tomorrow. listen to our civic is that your chief officials because they're request? >> governor: yeah, it on top of things. would be on the top of the and we're people of common list. ventilators would be number one, and p.p.e., sense. god gave us a brain. d illumion weye inheunce again, is something we're constantly on the prowl for. we have these calls, which are very helpful, by the way, at least once a week. from other people. but we're on with the when they tell us we can administration every single day, morning go back, and when those through night, having medical experts offer some bilateral conversations on this stuff as well. ways, at least until we're sure this virus is behind >> brennan: dr. birx us, that we can protect spoke from the white house one another, that will be podium this week and said the time to go. more than 90% of abbott that's what i say to god's

people today who are coronavirus tests really missing it, they want to get in the car and delivered to labs haven't been used. i know your state is one drive around until they that has been chosen to find a church open, god is use some of the tests from abbott labs. do you know why there is telling us, use your brain, use your common such a backlog? sense. don't tempt the lord. >> governor: i don't know. i know that all of the >> brennan: cardinal dolin, thank you, and testing companies, both happy easter. >> thank you, margaret. private sector as well as public, have big back a blessed one to you and logs. and i don't know the your viewers. specifics on abbott. >> brennan: we'll be right back. we weren't very happy that abbott picked new jersey as one of its first states, particularly in bergen county, which is the county this virus has hit the hardest, and we're hoping that the back logs -- we can pass through as past as possible and expand the testing as quickly as possible. i think we're the fifth most tests of any state in america, but we still need more. >> brennan: the national association of governors released a bipartisan letter yesay, callgfor about $5n unrestricted aid for states.

and asking congress to give that money. why is the money that the federal reserve has made available, why is that not enough? >> governor: well, it's both. it is not one in lieu of the other. the fed's steps are important, and we hope to take our steps to take advantage of them. but that is no replacing direct cash on the barrel to states assistance from the federal government. either from the cares act from a couple of weeks ago, or from any other steps that will be taken. i support completely the n.g.a.s ask of $500 million. and governor cuomo in new york and others said our four states, we need $100 billion of direct cash assistance. so it is both that, as well as the steps taken by the fed. we're going to need u all of the above. >> brennan: every expert we spoke to tells us in order for any state or country to reopen, there

needs to be a plan in place for surveillance. >> brennan: if you're like us, you feel a bit that means testing and that means tracing. you sit right between new helpless these days when york and other hot spot in is comes to seeing so many philadelphia. you're right in that corridor. what is the regional strategy? what is your strategy to people struggling, start to do that kind of especially during this holiday season. so we leave you with some surveillance? >> governor: so you used the exact right word, ideas with some ways on how you can help. "regional." we're the densest state in america. we've got to do this in concert with our captioned byponsored by cbs neighbors. and, frankly, it is still early stage partly because media g the house is still on access.wgbh.org fire, and job number one is to put the fire out in the house. but we have begun rather intense, this weekend, discussions with our neighboring states on the whole question of testing, contact tracing, what are the rules of the road going to be for things like bars and restaurants mrs. walker. to make sure we don't have michael vasquez! come over here. unintended consequences on one side of the river verses the other. there are a whole series i've heard such good things about you, your company. of steps in health care well, i wouldn't have done any of it without you. structure we need to take.

i was on the phone with one of your tests this without this place. this is for you. morning, a new jersey guy, michael, you didn't have to... and, we're going to need some help with the rest. scott godlieb. you're right, we need to you've worked so hard to achieve so much. have a regional approach. perhaps it's time to partner with someone we can't do this alone. who knows you and your business well enough >> brennan: and we'll be to understand what your wealth is really for. talking to dr. gotlieb shortly. thank you, governor. and chicago is one of many cities that has seen a disproportionately high number of coronavirus cases in its minority community. we go to the mayor of chicago, lori lightfoot. mayor, thank you for joining us this morning. >> mayor: my pleasure to be here. >> brennan: mayor, the data you shared this week frankly shocked a lot of people around this country. 72% of your city's deaths have been among black they make up just 3 the city popula why is this having such a heavy toll in the black community? >> mayor: this is an issue that is not unique to chicago, unfortunately.

we're seeing similar kinds of numbers reported across the country in large urban centers. the answer we believe is right is because of the underlying conditions that people of color in particular, and particularily black folks, suffer from, di from, diabetes, ♪ ♪ heart disease, the kind of things we've been talking to that lead to life expectancy gaps. this virus attacks those underlying conditions with a vengeance. just this morning i learned of a man i know well, an african-american, had an underlying condition and went very quickly as a result of the coronavirus. so it is devastating our community. >> brennan: what you said got the attention of the white house, as well as the surgeon general, who said from the podium, that black americans are not biological or genetically predisposed. he rattled off a number of other factors. the point being, this is

so layered in complexity. how do you, as a mayor, start chipping away at mayoruyoe data.on wee suequirekp providing demographic information. we need to be able to accurately understand the impact of this virus. so that's one. get the data, share the data, and what we also put in place was a racial equity rapid response team. so this is a team of health care providers, public health clinicians, as well as the faith community, block clubs, we have street intervention folks who divi. we're going all in in a hyperfocus, to tap into those neighborhoods where there is a high death rate, a high positive test rate, and we're bringing people into health care systems and making those

kind of connections that may not have otherwise existed. along with some other measures we're doing to avoid the myth that was circulating up until recently that black people actually couldn't get coronavirus. >> brennan: one of the other steps that stood out is that so many essential workers are people of color. so when it comes to that factor, who's responsibility is it to provide protective equipment? is it that individual's employer? is it it mayor, like you? is it the federal government? >> mayor: like, i think it starts with the employer. we're calling these people to work. we have a responsibility to make sure that they're taken care of. so for the employers that whether it is our city, employees, our sanitatio workers, whether it is the public transportation workers who are out there every day, we're making sure that they have the equipment that they need, masks, gloves, and training, and that we're

doing things about the places that they gather, the lunch rooms and other places, to deacon tam decontamie them, clean them on a regular basis, and make sure we're educating them about why congregating can be a significant problem. on our bus lines, we've added additional buses so people who are dependent on public transportation can ride in safety, and making sure we are doing everything we can to educate people about the danger of this disease, and emphasizing handwashing. if you've got an underlying condition, staying at home and making sure you'rfromther people who he to go out and work every day. >> brennan: dr. fauci said this morning there could be a rolling reopening of the economy by may. do you plan to open up chicago by next month? >> mayor: i heard the comments of governor murphy, and i think he has it 100% right. we cannot open up the

economy until we make sure we have all of the health care controls in place. that means widespread testing, contact tracing, and we've got to see not just a flattening of the curve, but a bending down. we're trending in the right direction here in chicago. we started out seeing that cases were doubling every one to two days, and every three to four. and we're now on a trend of nine to 10. but we've got to see a lot more progress on the health care front before we can even start talking about reopening the economy. >> brennan: mayor, thank you and good luck to you. >> mayor: sheik s thank you siech. thank you so much. i appreciate your time. >> brennan: we'll be back in a minute with dr. scott gottlieb. stay with us.

yeah, helping us save us even more... for bundling made easy, go to geico.com >> brennan: form . ottottlieb ha beels. he jns us h in conneut once again this morning. thank you for your help.

doctor, i want to ask, both the governor and the mayor said before they even consider what dr. fauci said, a rolling reopening, that they need testing and surveillance, things they said they do is leadingt that? >> doctor: unfortunately, i think it is going to be the states leading the effort, the feds are pretty tapped out. to give you sort of a basis for comparison, you'll hear testing, tracing and treatying going forward. the tracing is doing contact tracing. when you department fi identifye people, you want to trays. in wuhan in china, they had 1800 teams of five people each doing contact tracing at the height of that epidemic. right now c.d.c. has about 600 people deployed across the country. the states are supplementing that.

the feds are going to have a hard time pulsing their resources. a lot of it is going to be on the governors. governors are going to have to follow that lead. >> brennan: the difference betweliberties here. how do you do something like surveillance, which is an uncomfortable word for a lot of people, here? is it something like an app, like apple and google proposed this week? >> doctor: that's a platform that google and apple are fashioning, like a pipeline for public health authorities in states or localities. i think a lot of people are going to be concerned about that. remember, contact tracing is sort of the bread and butter of public health work. when you identify people who have an infection, youo int who they werthole them and get them tested as well. that's how you can control

outbreaks. i think one of the concerns we need to address right now is what happens when you identify someone who has the infection. you're going to want them to self-isolate for a period of time. but people may be reluctant to do and they may be reluctant to have government enforce that self-isolation, saying you have to stay home for two weeks. businesses have toth about hoto thinkabout how they provide gornment may want to pay those people to give tiathem an incentive. if it seems when you get covid-19 you will be forced to self-isolate for 14 days, the you won't want to come forward. >> brennan: doctor, stay with us. we have to take a commercial break, but iantath u

>> brennan

>> brennan: we'll be right back with more from former f.d.a. commissioner dr. scott gottlieb, and we'll also hear from neel kashkari. plus, stay tuned until the end of the broadcast for the archbishop of canterbury, cardinal timothy dolan.

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here. now. >> brennan: welcome back to "face the nation." we want to pick up where we left off, with former f.d.a. commissioner dr. scott gottlieb. we were talking about the projection by dr. fauci you could have a rolling reopening of the economy by next month. what parts of this country have the systems in place, mid riw.bility to open up>> dtoi we're not going to have the testing in place or the public health employees hired to do the contact tracing. there is no question we'll be opening at some risk. i think that is inevitable. there is a lot of pressure

from the business industry to start reopening the economy. so i think we'll see a slow reopening of business activities through may, with some risk, but there is always going to be risk. if you ask public health officials like me what the optimum amount of testing is, it is always more. governors and mayors will say businesses can open but you can only bring back 50% of your employees -- ye employers to break up the shifts, tell people over 65 to stay home longer. there will be measures put in place to try to limit interactions at the workplace, but allow some work to get on. >> brennan: the f.d.a. says it may approve a serology test some time in the next few weeks. what dha t your timeline and how widely available will be that? >> doctor: it may be widely available, but it is of marginal utility and

impact. what serology tells you, if you've been exposed to the virus, you have developed some level of immunity. but we're going to find the actual level of exposure across the population is very low, somewhere between 2% and 5%, that is the modeling from the data coming out of europe, where they had 2% to 5% of their population exposed. health care workers, police officers, people that come into a lot of people in their work, the rates may are higher, it may be as high at 10%. 'll see that certainly in the single digits have been exposed to this virus. >> brennan: we know this

is a global pandemic. the president has said he is reviewing u.s. funding to the world health organization. the u.s. gives about $100 million a year to it. they're leading the response around the world. what changes do you think is time be made? to defund the w.h.o., given the fact i think it will become epidemic in the southern hemisphere, places who don't have resources to deal with this issue. the president raised a lot of concerns. china was not truthful with the world. had they been more truthful with the world, they might have actually been able to contain this entirely. there is some growing evidence to suggest that as late as january 20th they were still saying there was no human to human transmission, and the w.h.o. was validating those claims on april 14th. i think going forward, the w.h.o. needs to commit to an after-action report

that specifically examines what china did or didn't tell the world. and i think they need to emplays taiwan's roles and allow them to attend the world health assembly. right now they have frozen them out on the behest of china. and china doesn't share the viral strains. the w.h.o. should have made them do that and we could have developed a diagnostic test earlier. >> brennan: we will see what the president decides to do in the coming days. doctor, thank you for your time. one of the models that the white house is watching closely, in terms of hospital resources and what the death toll could look like going forward from the university of washington's institute of health metrics. the director is dr. christopher murray, and he joins us this morning from seattle. dr. murray, good to have you here.

what would a rolling reopening of the economy look like, and what would that do to your projections? >> doctor: well, we've been trying to investigate that because i think the issue is if you open up too soon, and there is a big load of cases still in the community that have the potential to go back to community transmission, we can quickly see resurgence in some states. so in some states, it is possible in may. but in other states, it is going to be very unlikely that that would not lead to an immediate resurgence. >> brennan: which states are safe to reopen? >> doctor: well, what we're seeing is that the states, such as out here on the west coast, seem to be farther along in the epidemic peaking, and then we need multiple weeks of closures after that peak to bring the burden of cases down to the point where testing and contact tracing has a chance of

working. and then, of course, there is the big issue if states are different timings of their epidemics, which we know is the case, how are they going to control importation from other states into their state? so it possess poses a whole new set of questions. >> brennan: this week your model suggested that 6 1,000 americans will lose their lives to the virus by the end of this summer. it is a breathtaking lower, but it is far lower than your april 2nd estimate of nearly 100,000. i'd like you to explain why there was such a significant change. >> doctor: well, about two weeks ago our first prediction was about 80,000 cases, with a very wide range, from about 30,000 to 150,000, and all of our subsequent forecasts have been within that range. the advantage of the model

that we run, which is we keep updating it three or four times a week, is that it is driven by the data. and so the trend up in some states has been faster. in new yor for example, at the beginning, which pushed or forecasts up, and the peaks we're seeing in california and washington have been lower than expected, and they've brought these forecasts down a bit. but they're all within the same range. the last series of forecast is 60,000, 61,000 deaths, and we predicted the peak about now. it seems to be occurring at the national level. but because of incompleteplcomplete implementan of social distancing in many states, it is adding a degree of uncertainty on what is going to happen, in places like texas, for example. >> brennan: texas is a hot spot that worries you still? >> doctor: well, all of the places where we have only partial closures, for

example, on the essential business list, those are the ones that it is much harder to know what is going to happen. we have rock-solid evidence that the full closures work. we have seen that in italy and spain. we're seeing that out here, out west, but what we don't know is do these sort. incomplete cliche closures have the same impact. >> brennan: dr. fauci likes to say the model is only as good as the information you put it in. i believe your model says restrictions take place until the end of may. if you start reopening parts of the country, how high of a risk of rebound is there? >> doctor: the first testing we've done on this is if you opened up the entire country may 1st, we would very clearly have a rebound. we don't think the capabilin stes et tl with that volume of cases. and so b back in the same situation we are now.

i think what dr. fauci was talking about this morning is that different states are on different timings. maybe some states can open up mid-may, but we have to sure that we don't sort of lose all of the effort that the american people have put into closures by premature opening. >> brennan: and this is a global pandemic. where are we as a world right now? >> doctor: well, that's the really good question. most of our work at the institute is actually focused on tracking health around the world, and so we're used to looking at all of the data around the world. the big worry is what will be the toll in places in low and middle income world that don't have the capability, perhaps, of implementing social-distancing measures. they don't have the i. ventitor capacity to deal with patients. and that's what i think many people are trying to

focus their attention on now, what's coming down the pike. >> brennan: doctor, thank you for your analysis. we will be right back. th st up, y sile tie the is a chanc 300 miles an hour, that's where i feel normal. i might be crazy but i'm not stupid. having an annuity tells me that i am protected. during turbulent times, consider protected lifetime income from an annuity as part of your retirement plan.

this can help cover your essential monthly expenses. learn more at protectedincome.org step by step, we're going to figure this out. we're gonna find a way through this. we're working really, really hard in hospitals, our nurses, our techs, all the docs. it's about staggering when people get sick so that the hospitals can cope. we're gonna go through an awful lot of the. all across puget sound, people have been stepping up and donating personal protective equipment. we stay at work. for you. you stay at home for us. just know we're all with you. thank you, thank you so much. thank you doctors & nurses.

>> brennan: we turn now to neel kashkari, president and c.e.o. of the federal reserve of minneapolis, and he lead the 2008 tarp program. he joins us from minneapolis. clearly you know what as. crisis is like and how to navigate one. i want to ask you about the jobs crisis right now because 16 million americans have filed for unemployment since these restrictions went into place due to the virus. the st. louis fed says we could see 47 million americans losing their job. where is your prediction on the bottom? >> well, we just don't know. i've been stening toorn ma p t virus. that will determine how long the shutdown needs to take place and ultimately

how many americans lose their jobs, and how quickly we can get them back to work. there are wide ranges of estimates of how wide or high the unemployment is going to go. it is all driven by the virus and show the health care can catch up. >> brennan: they think the economy is going to turn right back on when people go back to work -- that's overly optimistic? >> i think so. it would be wonderful if some new therapy would be developed in the next couple of months, then potentially we would have a "v"-shaped recovery. barring some health care miracle like that, it seems we'll have various stages of rolling flareups, as we heard from your guest in washington, different parts of the economy turning on and off again. this could be a long, hard road to we get to either an affective therapy or vaccine. >> brennan: it looks like congress and the

administration underestimated the amount of pain small business owners are in. their predictions thats $300 billion put aside could be exhausted. and congress is talking about adding another $350 billion, and they're fighting about it. what will the impact be if congress doesn't make that package bigger this week? >> a lot of small businesses are saying they want to keep their businesses together, and they want to keep their employees employed, so that's good. the banks are trying to step in. but we know that the $350 billion is not going to meet the needs across all of the small businesses in america. it will end up being first come, first served. who ends up getting the assistance and who is left on the sidelines. i think congress will come together to provide more support to small businesses. but we don't know if this support is going to be long enough. because if we need to have different phases of shs nt fw

moe thant. >> brennan: and the fed is part of the strategy because as we detailed this week, there are about $2.3 trillion intake