>> brennan: welcome back to "face the nation." and our annual cbs news correspondents' year-end roundtable. we're joined by some of our beat correspondents, including ed o'keefe, jan crawford, and weijia jiang is cbs news senior white house correspondent. and david martin is also here, and finally, nikole killion, who is cbs news congressional correspondent. it is good to have you all and see your bright, shiny faces in person. nikole, this has been eight months of infighting and tangling over the build back

better spending bill that the white house has really made a signature issue for the president. is it dead on arrival? or is this just on life support in 2022? >> i think life perce support is a better way to look at it. i don't think democrats are going to give this up without a fight, and joe manchin has resisting all along, whether it is the impact that build back better could have on the economy and inflation. so while right now it looks like democrats are kind of at this stalemate, again, i think you will see democratic leadership really try to prod him over these next couple of weeks to get on board. >> brennan: doesn't this hurt democrats, the longer this drags on? >> i think what is hurting them more than anything is the focus on the process of it all, which they, themselves, have allowed to be the focus by virtue of the

arguments they've had in public, the incredible disagreements they can't seem to get over, and the fact that the president engages behind the scenes, to try to get the warring factions of his party to say let's just get a deal. whatever comes of this build back better deal may not be enough. when you ran in 2020 on a promise to do so much more and yet weren't able to secure a big enough majority to make it happen. so the threat for them is a depressed and confused and upset base of support that may not feel compelled to show up if this infighting continues to bleed into 2022 so much. and if they remain so focused on all of that and don't get out in the country to try to sell and explain it to skeptical americans. >> remember who is at the center of this, and that is democratic senator joe manchin, who has a lot less to lose political than the others because he comes from virginia, a deeply red state, and he is aware of that. when you're talking about the

political ramifications of this, he is probably thinking of that less, and might even be thinking the other way, of how a no vote could garner even more support in this state. >> brennan: what he has also argued is this would hurt the economy. on the other hand, president biden has argued this is absolutely a requirement for the kind of economic recovery and rebuilding he says is necessary. so what is the strategy, if you can't get $2 trillion through? >> well, i think the problem is that when you look at west virginia, and you look at how poor it is, when you look at all of the levels of unemployment and how much the need is there for some of the measures in the social spending plan, the poison pill is attached to it, and that is the president's sweeping climate proposals. so perhaps if there was a way to decouple them, manchin would be more on board. but i do not think that the white house would be willing to entertain because it is really their only and maybe last shot at passing these huge climate change proposals that he would

like. >> brennan: west virginia native yourself, of course. but, ed, it is the federal reserve's job to control inflation. let's be clear here. but it doesn't matter, the commander-in-chief will get the blame for it if spending continues to spike. does the white house believe that the price spikes are actually a short-term issue? >> they thought that certainly at the end of the summer into the fall. but i think if you look at what the fed has said since, they now understand this is going to continue further into next year. there is going to be this kind of once in a lifetime, perhaps, economic disruption that leads to a long and painful and expensive reshuffling. and when things are bad economically, they take it out on those in charge, and that's democrats. you have that plus the historic nature of a mid term when the party in power usually loses seats any way, and they know they can be in for a real

shellacking. >> brennan: i was talking to an official, talking about the holiday season, saying that vladimir putin may be making himself known to the world. do we see a hot war in europe in 2022? >> the estimate is once the ground freezes so that russian tanks and personnel carriers can get good traction, they'll be liable to go from all of those western districts of russia, into eastern ukraine. and what putin is trying to do here is basically walk back history by pulling ukraine back into the russian sphere of influence. he has made these demands, like he needs a legally binding guarantee that ukraine will never be allowed to join nato. surely he knows that is a non-starter. so the question here is: is that just his going-in position? or is that his pretext for an

invasion once his demands are turned down. >> brennan: well, we went through a part of this back in 2014, when vladimir putin annexed part of ukraine. he did it in a different way last time. why so overt this time, with a military build-up? >> there is a much more substantial military force waiting for him. ukraine has been getting military equipment from the u.s. so it requires a bigger operation. whether that launch that operation, of course, remains to be seen. but the u.s. clearly has intelligence that goes beyond the simple fact that these units are gathering together there in russia. they know something about what the russian military staff is planning. and what they intend to do with those forces. and right now they are clearly

making the preparations, making the plans, to go into eastern ukraine. >> brennan: uh-huh. >> whether or not it happens, vladimir putin pay not know yet. >> brennan: u.s. intelligence says he hasn't made up his mind. of course, this is being watched because it is a test case of what president biden will do and how he will respond to an adversary. and on the heels of afghanistan, which looked quite chaotic, this is a big test. >> it is. i think one of the biggest dangers for 2022 is that countries like china, russia, iran are going to look at what happened in afghanistan and decide the u.s. is a spent force and we can roll. and that's not a good mindset to be in. >> brennan: no. jan? >> i have to say, every time we do these annual correspondent panels, david says something

that makes my heart stop. we're all running around chasing shiny objects, and david just says -- and it's every year. >> brennan: and what is scary, he is usually right. jan, in terms of predictions, the big one i remember you making a few weeks back about the future of "roe vs. wade" in the supreme court is that we won't really know the answer to the question on the court's direction until maybe june. >> right. history is a guide for that as well, if you want to look back. in 1992, which is the last time the supreme court had a frontal assault on "roe vs. wade," they had five votes to overturn it, and at the last minute former justice kennedy switched his vote to preserve it. so while there may be five votes now, and i suspect there are, anything can happen between now and june. >> brennan: so those who are saying it will be overturned are perhaps taking too early of a

call? >> it may very well be overturned. i would not be surprised. >> brennan: so then we have a patchwork of different states with different laws? >> the court would take the position, as conservatives have long maintained, that there is not a right to an abortion in the constitution. that would mean that the court would be neutral, and so it will go back to the states. and the le legislators will then decide whether to allow abortion or not. it would take the court out of the issue of abortion and let the state legislatures decide. >> to jan's point, keep an eye on the states. i would argue, at least in recent history, this will probably be the most consequential cycle for governors' races. one because abortion will become an urgent issue.

two, because voting rights is an issue and there are ways for states to restrict or expand access. but for the biggest reason, perhaps, if certain presidential battleground states swing for control of one party or another, they are potentially setting up the playing field going into 2024. you have big races in places like wisconsin, michigan, georgia, arizona, which were all deciding factors in 2020. if republicans take full control of those, and there will be pressure on those from a certain former president to put some things in place. >> brennan: there are 33 laws that make it harder for americans to vote. the white house looks to that and they look at the anniversary of the january 6 siege of the capitol, and they say they're going to start talking about building momentum for voting rights. does anything actually get passed in 2022? >> i mean, again, i think it comes down to the numbers. it is going to be a difficult thread to weave, but, as i said,

i think there will be a very deliberate effort to try to move forward on it if they can. >> brennan: the white house wants to get caught trying? >> absolutely. we were talking to some white house folks who said they were realistic about this as well. and they know that it is going to be a struggle. the problem is the president knows, also, how critical this issue is for the black community. he is aware of the promises that he has made. so he has to show that he is at least doing everything he can to get it done. >> brennan: and, david, all of this gets intertwined into january 6 and the insurrection. when you look at what is happening right now and the folks you talk to at the pentagon, do they believe the biggest national security threat is internal or external? >> internal, no question. military people will say that to you. the biggest threat to the united states of america is the

reincarnation of january 6. beand if we lose our democracy, what the heck does all of that other stuff matter. who cares about hypersonic weapons if you don't have a democracy. >> brennan: jim, when you look to the courts and the question of faith in our institution -- when we look around the capitol, there is a lot -- >> i think there is still faith in the supreme court. and it has been the institution that pulls the bets way better than congress, and certainly the press. [laughter] >> brennan: you picked the two lowest, jan -- >> i did. used car salesmen are there and lawyers. that is the way the court has conducted itself, and justice brier has been a big pro of that. the court senior liberal, going

out and talking to groups, that it is this beacon of democracy. that goes to the question of: how much longer is justice brier going to be around on the supreme court? there has been a lot of pressure from people on the left that he would step down while president biden could nominate. it has definitely declined, but it hasn't taken the kind of hits that other things have. some people say if they return roe, it would weaken -- >> brennan: but justice -- >> if they upheld roe, tthe, quote, "lawless addiction" -- but the supreme court doesn't have an army to get it

decisions. it relies on the public support. >> brennan: do we assume this is a republican-controlled cents, republican-controlled house in 2022? >> i think republicans assume that. on the house side, it is really not that hard. there are only five seats they have to flip to get back in power. very often you will hear house republicans speaking to nancy pelosi as a lame-duck vote. so they're measuring the drapes. certainly it is possible at this stage of the game where it could go either way. but i think mitch mcconnell s there to stay. and i think whether he is in the majority or the minority, i think you will see him continue to take that role in the forefront. but definitely history is not necessarily on the side of democrats this go round, and many have acknowledged they face

some difficult head winds going forward. >> i think it is difficult to imagine the president accomplishing much on his agenda when it was already so difficult with democrats in control. i think that actually exposed how much conflict there is within that party. and i don't know that they had anticipated it being done in the open in the way that it was. even when you look at all of the president's successes, it came with a lot of public fighting. when it came to the american rescue plan, or even the bipartisan infrastructure law that just passed, you saw how moderates and progressives really butted heads and had to put that aside. but it was still out there. everybody saw it. >> i think many democrat leaders are the sausage making in washington. we could all be kumbaya, but there are some differences. and we have seen that evolve in the party over the last couple

of years. at the end of day, they have gotten some things done -- >> because the party has evolved so much. we'll see. >> brennan: we're going to take a quick break, and we'll be back with more from our panel.

>> brennan: we're back now with more from our correspondents' panel, and this is where you ask you to do the thing you hate doing, which is predict the future, but they are informed predictions, i know. jan, what is it that you see happening in 2022? >> well, i normally predict that alabama will win the national championship. that is getting kind of too easy to fix. i'm going to focus on the court and the issue of abortion. i predict that the supreme court will overturn "roe vs. wade." they will say that the constitution and the court will be neutral on the issue of abortion, which would send that back to the states to decide how they wanted to handle it, a specific state by state issue. the vote could well be 6-3, with

the chief justice joining them, five more conservatie justices, after failing to put forward a more implemental approach. >> brennan: it would have huge implications? >> it would drastically shift the debate in the confirmation process. for the supreme court justices -- it would shift all of that back to the state. it would mean the states couldn't play politics knowing that the court would overturn it. the positions that the politicians are taking to panltd pander to the left, or more specifically to the right -- all of that is real. they have to make real decisions based on what their voters want. >> brennan: david? >> i'm going to duck the tough one of whether putin will invade ukraine or not. if he hasn't made up his mind, i

shouldn't have to make up mine. there are two mysteries of there. what is causing the havana syndrome is the debilitating symptoms that hit americans overseas. and where are these unexplained aerial phenomenon we call u.f.o.s. these drone-like objects that show up in the middle of u.s. military exercises, where the heck are they coming from? i'm predicting one of those two will be solved in 2022. >> brennan: we'll hold you to it, david. >> i can't follow that. [laughter] >> i've been thinking a lot about the president's goals ever since he took office and how a curveball like omicron can set everything back. i do predict that things are going to get worse before they get better with the pandemic. and i don't think that the president will implement any

lockdowns or restrictions that we saw in 2020, which is something that we've been talking about a lot. because, you know, what can you do if you can't force someone to get the vaccine and the virus continues to spin out of control, is he going to have another 15 days to slow the spread? and i think the answer is no because he is so committed to his economic agenda and he understands what a shutdown would mean. so i think it will be up to state and local officials to do that, but i don't predict any federal guidelines for shutdowns in 2022. >> brennan: and even the governors because of political costs at this point. so, ed, what your prediction of 2022? >> i will predict that the president, once we get clear of the worst of this and he is able to globe-trot a little more, will make trips to latin-america

and africa. >> brennan: you did not put ireland on there? >> because that is going to happen no matter what. by latin-america and africa. they have to remember everything this president does has china in the background. this would be designed to go to those parts of the world and say, stick with democracy, stick with the united states, avoid the chinese influence in investment that will come your way, and remember we stand with you. president trump didn't go to africa, and there is a belief that such a trip needs to happen sooner than later. and africa as well, going would send a big signal, and he would try to meet with some big leaders in that region. i predict these are two trips he will make. >> i think in terms of the mid-terms, one dynamic to watch in covering politics, we keep talking about the increased number of women who are running and people of color. i think especially, when you look at black women in particular, i think you will see

a barrier being broken, whether that is in the senate or the governor's mansion. there has never, ever been a black woman elected as governor in u.s. history. you have five running, stacey abrams, you have candidates in south carolina, massachusetts, oklahoma, iowa. there are a number of lieutenant governors. we'll see the first african-american lieutenant-governor in virginia. i also think for all of the talk of having the first black president, barack obama, having the first black vice president and vice president of south asian descent, i think people for get there is a deficit in the senate. as diverse as congress is, there is no black women in the candidate. you have val demmings and others who are running. i think those are two spaces to watch in the mid-terms in 2022. >> brennan: we'll be

watching. thanks to all of you. have a great holiday. when you humble yourself under the mighty hand of god, in due time he will exalt you. hi, i'm joel osteen. i'm excited about being with you every week. i hope you'll tune in. you'll be inspired, you'll be encouraged. i'm looking forward to seeing you right here. you are fully loaded and completely equipped for the race that's been designed for you.

>> brennan: that's it for us today. thank you for watching. and we want to wish you a very happy and healthy new year. we're see you in 2022.

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and call pg&e right after so we can both respond out on your cell phone or connected tv. i'm elise preston, cbs news, new york. ♪ >> announcer: this is the "cbs overnight news." >> good evening. i'm meg oliver in new york. jericka duncan is off. for a second year in a row, covid is causing headaches for holiday travellers across the u.s. new infections spreading like wildfire have sparked staffing shortages, resulting in long delays and cancellations. new covid infections exceeded 200,000 a day over the past two weeks. that's up 69%. covid deaths are on the rise too. cbs' lilia luciano leads us off with a look at post holiday travel. lilia, good evening. >> reporter: good evening to you, meg.

it is another very busy travel day.