♪♪ [trumpet] ♪♪ captioning sponsored by cbs >> brennan: i'm margaret brennan, and this week on "face the nation," the stakes could not be higher as we enter a new phase in the ukraine crisis. there was even more pressure on vladimir putin to halt this plans to invade, but is it too late. we'll have a report from the front lines in ukraine, as well as news on the 11th hour diplomatic efforts and the military maneuvers. plus, we'll talk with all sides of the conflict, in fluiding with antony blinken and anatoly antonov. and we'll also look at the efforts to defend against aheadn

"face the nation." ♪♪ >> brennan: good morning and welcome to "face the nation." today marks the beginning of a new phase of the ukraine crisis and all eyes are on vladimir putin, whose military has now surrounded ukraine on three sides with approximately 190,000 russian personnel. u.s. intelligence indicates that half of those military forces are in position to attack. russian military exercises in belarus, near ukraine's northern border, were scheduled to end today. moscow had initially said it would pull out as soon as the drills were over, but this morning there is word that they will replain. president biden has called an emergency meeting of his national security council later today. we begin in ukraine, with

cbs news foreign coesndent arlie d'agat eporter: good mog. ukrainian commanders we spoke to, this war is already under way. they took us to the front lines in the east, where there has been a dramatic spike in shelling, in the extended russian military exercises in belarus only adds to the anxiety. the russian military on full flex in the most elaborate show of force since this crisis began. testing hypersonic and ballistic missiles as part of nuclear exercises under the watchful eye of president putin put himself. to submarine launches in the black sea and by land, to belarus, where troops are edging ever closer to the ukrainian border, described by the u.s. defense secretary as uncoiling and poised to strike. in eastern ukraine itself, an artillery bombardment

sent soldiers and journalists scrambling for cover. including further back, us. okay, so there have just been a couple of explosions. the kids are running, and we've been told to get into our buses now. we are as close as we can get to the frontline. this show you how dynamic the situation here is. the commanders told us the ongoing conflict here took a dramatic turn on thursday, when russia-backed rebels intensified the shelling of ukrainian military positions and civilian areas alike. >> the whole frontline to which we think is just another confirm nationation that is orchestrated by russia. >> reporter: separatists leaders have ordered the evacuation of women, children, and the elderly to russia. they say for their own safety. residents turned refugees now uses weapons in a

propaganda war. ukrainian commanders tell us that the increase in shelling and spreading panic among the civilian population are aimed at inventing or provoking the excuse vladimir putin needs in order to justify an invasion. margaret? >> brennan: charlie d'agata, thank you. ukraine's president, zelensky, is back in kyiv following a day trip to munich, where he met with his allies, and sharply criticized them for appeasing vladimir putin. >> you're telling me it is 100% that the war will start in a couple of days. then what are you waiting for? >> reporter: president volodymyr zelensky insisted on delivering his message to nato allies in person, that their policies are appeasing russia and his country is paying the price. >> we don't need your sanctions after the bombardment will happen and after our country will be fired at, or after we

will have no borders or after we will have no economy or parts of our country will be occupied. why would we need the sanctions then? >> reporter: vice-president harris who met with zelensky on saturday -- >> he came to make a clear point, he does not stand alone. >> reporter: the sanctions are directed at financial institutions and individuals close to vladimir putin. >> these are some of the greatest sanctions, if not the strongest, that we have ever issued. and it will exact absolute harm for the russian economy. >> reporter: and despite zelensky's- in person plea, she says that position has not changed. >> we cannot take lightly what we're prepared to do because we understand the cost we're exacting and it is severe. >> reporter: the vice president left a little while ago. she is heading bk to washington toin that national security meeting

later today. >> brennan: and we're joined by national security correspondent david martin. good to have you with us again, david. the president is very clear he is convinced by u.s. intelligence that this invasion will happen, that president putin decided to do it. how is he that certain? >> because the intelligence says that russian troops have actually received orders now to proceed with the invasion. so not only are they moving up closer and closer to the border and to these attack positions, but the commanders on the ground are making specific plans for how they would maneuver in their sector of the battlefield. they're doing everything that american commanders would do once they got the order to proceed. >> brennan: we know vladimir putin himsf many options. is the option he seems to be setting himself up for? how does this play out? >> well, he is definitely

giving himself the option for a full-scale invasion of the country, which would begin with the attack on the capital o kyiv. >> brennan: with an aerial assault? >> well, a cyber-assault to begin with. but it will look much like the "shock and awe" campaign that the u.s. unleashed on the city of baghdad when it invaded iraq. cyber-weapons didn't exist back in 2003, so that is a new ingredient. you would think cycrcyberwould come first and tn they would be followed by missile strikes and airstrikes, and special operations to sees key to seize keyparts of the city, communications, and then you could see them roll from the north, down on either side of the city to

isolate the city and prevent the government from escaping into a government in exile. >> brennan: when you compared it to "shock and awe", there was a certain amount of precision that is assumed with that. precision is not necessarily in the russian playbook for military operations. what should we be preparing for? >> well, remember, the russians have had 18 years to go to school on how we conducted that "shock and awe" campaign. so they have developed precprecision-guided weapons. i would expect them to use them because they're more affective. if he wants to have this country back in the russian empire, he doesn't want to destroy kyiv. he wants a warking government. he doesn't want to find what we found when we got to baghdad, to find this country totally stripped of its infrastructure. >> brennan: and when it

comes to trying to swallow a country, i mean, the argument from the u.s. has been we've poured in weapons and training and helped ukrainians to be able to resist this kind of occupation. is that what we're looking for, occupation here? senior is this military coercion? >> he is making the preparations for occupation. he has assembled a force that could invade and take down most of the country. and now he has begun to mobilize reserves who would serve as the occupation force. now, i'm sure he is going to do the least that it takes to achieve his goal. and if his goal is to bring ukraine back into his sphere of influence, maybe he can do it just by taking down the capital. maybe he can do it by cutting a bigger piece out

of the east, but he is obviously making preparations to do whatever it takes. >> brennan: david martin, great to have you. we go now to secretary of state, antony blinken who was also in munich and is here in washington. good morning to you, mr. secretary. >> good morning. >> brennan: president biden says president putin has made up his mind to invade. but he says he only has troops on his own soil. do you have reason to believe that vladimir putin is changing his mind? >> no, we don't. as president biden said the other night, everything we're seeing tells us that the decision prespresident putin has made -- we have seen false flag operations. now the news just this morning that the, quote, unquote, exercises that russia was engaged in in belarus that was intoafd that wd

to end this weekend is now continuing. >> brennan: we understand president biden is calling a meeting of his national security council today. what decisions will be made at that meeting? >> well, it is an opportunity to review the latest information, the latest intelligence, to check signals and plans. i just came back from munich with the vice president. she led our delegation there to make sure that we are in lock-step with allies and partners on everything we're going to do, both to see if we can still prevent president putin from carrying forth his decision, and if not, making sure we're fully coordinated with allies on the response. they reiterated that massive consequences will follow if president putin carries forth with the aggression. >> brennan: when we last spoke on january 23rd, you said if they engage in cyber-attacks, efforts to bring the government down, there would be a swift and ccalibrated united

response. aren't they doing all of those things and where is the response? >> we've taken specific action in recent months, supplying ukraine with -- >> brennan: but the cyber attacks were just on friday. they just happened. >> and we worked closely with ukraine to get them back up and running. we've made an attribution to russia for the cyber-attacks. we're looking closely for the response that may call for. if russia commits the aggression that may be in training, all of that ou rward.ngit >> bre: at youlmeewith russia's top diplomat but only if russia does not invade. >> that's right. >> brennan: but it seems contradictory because what you're saying is that is tanks and that is planes. does that mean russia has

carte blanche to continue cyber-attacks? if they keep tensions at this loy low boil, is that acceptable to you? >> there are two separate things there. first of all, it is not acceptable, and it is one of the things we talked about in some detail with allies and partners this weekend, a scenario where russia just keeps things at a low or medium boil, and there will be response to that, too. my job as a diplomat is to leave absolutely no stone unturned to see if we can prevent a war. president biden has made very clear he is prepared to meet president putin at any time in any format if that can help prevent a war. even if the dye is cast, until we know that the tanks are rolling and the planes are flying and the aggression has fully begun, we're going to do everything we can to prevent it. but we're prepared either way, and with a response that has massive

consequences for russia if it actually carries this through. >> brennan: you have specifically described sanctions as a deterrent. i know you heard president zelensky lay into the allies in that speech in munich. he accused you and the west of appeasement of vladimir putin. he said we don't need your sanctions after we have no borders or after we have no economy or after parts of our country will be occupied. what are you waiting for? what are you waiting for? >> i can't speak, margaret, to the last few years, but i can speak to the last year. in that period of time, the united states, again, has provided to ukraine, more assistance, including lethal military assistance, more in the past year than in any time in the past previous years. we have rallied other countries to stand in support of ukraine as well. we rallied other countries to make clear, and to put together in great detail, the massage c consequences

that would befall russia. we don't want to pull the trigger until we have to because we loose the deterrent affect. at the same time, we also don't want to detail in public exactly what we're going to do because it will forewarn russia. it will be able to prepare to try to mitigate the sanctions. so all of this is very well thought through. i recognize president zelensky is in a very difficult position as a leader of a country that is under siege by russia. we're doing everything we can to help ukraine defend itself. >> brennan: when i spoke with the russian ambassador, he referred to crimea, the part of southern ukraine that was annexed by russia in 2016 as part of the russian federation. will the u.s. in any way

recognize seizing any territories in ukraine as a way out to avoid a larger war? >> no. >> brennan: no, hard stop. that is not up for negotiations? >> that is correct. >> brennan: the president has said the united states will continue to support ukraine in the future, after an invasion. if there is an occupation, does that mean the united states is committed to funding and arming an insurgency? >> the president said that we will, in the event of an invasion, double down on our support for ukraine. and that means in terms of security assistance, economic assistance, diplomatic assistance, political assistance, humanitarian assistance, you name it. >> brennan: secretary blinken, good luck this week. thank you for your time this morning. >> thank you. good to be with you. >> brennan: "face the nation" will be back in one minute. stay with us.

♪ ♪ add downy to your wash for all the freshness and softness of home. even when you're not at home. feel the difference with downy. [upbeat acoustic music throughout] [upbeat acoustic music throughout] >> brennan: we turn now to nato secretary -- i

will get right to the latest reporting from cbs, which is that intelligence shows russian troops have actually received orders to proceed with the invasion. as david martin reported, that goes down to the detail how they would maneuver in their sector of the battlefield. how will nato respond to this? >> our main responsibility is to make sure that all allies are safe and secure, thu and that we provide defense to them. that's the reason why we already have increased our presence, military presence, and nato forces -- >> brennan: you've been increasing that? >> and also why we're ready to further reinforce that presence if there is an attack on ukraine. this has been a crisis in the making for a long time. so, therefore, we gradually increased our presence and are ready to

further reinforce that. >> brennan: now that russia and belarus have said those troops are staying in the north of ukraine, does that mean nato has to either increase more advanced weaponry in the region or move in more troops? or is that still yet to be decided? >> we have all -- since 2014, when russia invaded and annexed crimea and started to destabilize eastern ukraine in donbas, we have reinforced and implemented the biggest reenforcenforcements since the end of the cold war. in poland, with increased defense spending every year since 2014, and with higher nato forces. we have implemented significant reinforces of nato. and in the last weeks and months, we are augmented

and added even more forces and troops to our presence in the east. i think what we're now faced with is the new normal in european security. we see russia being willing to contest fundamental values for our security by the use of force and also by the threat of use of force. and, therefore, i -- we have started all of the work on more longer-term adjustment of nato's posture and presence along the eastern fronts. >> brennan: right. we also know the u.s. projects there could be as many as five million or more refugees created by an invasion. what will nato do if russia recognizes refugees and pushes them into your member states? >> first of all, the most important thing is to prevent a new armed attack on ukraine. and therefore we support all efforts by nato allies to find a political solution. and nato is also ready to

sit down and counsel with russia. if russia decides to use force, there may, of course, be a large number of people fleeing ukraine, and then the nato response force, the forces we're prepared to deploy, for instance, to poland and the neighboring countries have capabilities that can help to deal with migrant and refugee crisis. so we can assist. we'll never be the first responder when it comes to refugee crisis,but we can help the nato allies. we did that already in poland when we saw them trying -- as a mean to intimidate these countries. >> brennan: vladimir putin oversaw some strategic nuclear exercises yesterday. is this an attempt to intimidate nato? >> it is a way for them to

demonstrate all their capabilities they have. this is a regular exercise, but it was planned for last fall and now it happens in the midst of this significant russian military buildup in and around ukraine, with the largest concentration of combat troops we have seen in europe since the end of the cold war. so last week actually russia said that they will step back. russia is stepping up with more troops and higher and even closer to the ukrainian border. and also the fact that this exercise they said should end today will not continue. so all of this fits into that picture that russia is preparing for an invasion of ukraine. >> brennan: the bigger picture, though, ukraine's president blasted the west, as you know yesterday, as he spoke.

he said the west is treating ukraine like a buffer between itself and russia. exactly what is the timeline for ukraine's membership in nato? >> we have not set any timeline for that. but nato allies have been very clear that it is for ukraine and 30 nato allies to decide on membership, not russia. and, secondly, we have provided, over many years, significant support to ukraine. we helped them to modernize their defense and security institutions, to strengthen their cyber-defenses. and the united nations and the united kingdom and others have provided military equipment and defensive weapons. so the ukrainian armed forces are much stronger now with better equipped and better trained troops than in 2014, and this is not at least because of all of the support that nato allies have provided over all these years.

>> brennan: mr. secretary-general, we'll be watching closely what happens in the coming days. thank you for your time. >> thank you, margaret. >> brennan: well be back with a lot more "face the nation," so stay with us. carl, say hi to nina, our schwab financial consultant. hm... i know how difficult these calls can be. not with schwab. nina made it easier to set up our financial plan. we can check in on it anytime. it changes when our goals change. planning can't be that easy. actually, it can be, carl. look forward to planning with schwab. schwab! ♪♪ with downy infusions, let the scent set the mood. feel the difference with downy. schwab! you founded your kayak company because you love the ocean-

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>> brennan: and there is some breaking news out of london this morning. queen elizabeth has tested positive for covid. buckingham palace says she will continue with a light will continue with a light schedule at windsor castle this week. she turns 96 in april.

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♪♪ >> brennan: welcome back to "face the nation." we go now to russia's ambassador to the united states, anatoly antonov. good morning to you, ambassador. and thank you for coming on the program. >> good morning. thank you very much for inviting me. >> brennan: i'll get right to it. president biden says that president putin has decided to invade ukraine. is he correct? >> there is no invasion and there is no such plans. it was fixed in russian documents that we convey to our american friends and state department russia has publicly decided -- declared it