genesys, we're behind every customer smile. now, welcome back to "face the nation." we continue our conversation with minneapolis federal reserve's neel kashkari. neel, let's pick up where you left off on the question of supply. when i was talking with two senators earlier, there was this debate about whether taxation on companies that don't pay a minimum level of taxation will have their supply hurt. so, in other words, you tax them, supply goes down, that hurts within inflation. what is your assessment of that? >> you know, over the long-term, that's probably true on the margin. people say that about raising interest rates. why raise interest rates, that will make it more expensive for firms to invest and that is going to not help with the

supply side. that's true over the long-term. but over the short-term, the demand side effects swamp the slide sigh ede effects. when i look at your bill, my guess is over the next couple of years it is not going to have much of an impact on inflation, it is not going to affect how i analyze inflation, i think long-term it may have some effect. near term, we have a mismatch between demand and supply. and it is up to the federal reserve to bring that demand down and we're committed to doing what we need to do. >> help me understand recessions. is there a debate in washington that is full of political gamesmanship. take me inside why it matters if america is in a recession and what the component parts are that are part of that and how that helps us understand the health of the economy. >> well, it really matters when americans feel it, when americans, special in the job market, that's the most important part of the economy so to speak, for americans, their job.

do they have a decent place to work and earning decent wages. and typically recessions are -- they demonstrate why job losses, high unemployment, those are terrible for american families. we're not seeing anything like that. the labor market so far is very strong. we are seeing some sectors like the tech sector start to shed workers or start to cool down in hiring, but fundamentally the labor market appears to be very strong. while gdp, the amount the economy is producing, we're getting mixed signals out of the economy. getting inflation in check, whether we're technically in a recession or not doesn't change my analysis. i'm focused on the inflation data. i'm focused on the wage data. so far, inflation continues to surprise us to the upside. wages continue to grow. so far the labor market is very, very strong. that means whether we're technically in a recession or not doesn't change the fact that the federal reserve has its own work to do, and we're committed to doing it. >> last 20 seconds, on gdp, when

it goes down, isn't that what the fed is trying to do, slow down growth, so is that a good number? >> well, we definitely want to see some slowing. we don't want to see the economy overheating. we would love it if we can transition to a sustainable economy without tipping the economy into recession. there is not a great record of doing that. typically when the economy slows down, it slows down by quite a bit, especially if it is the central bank that is inducing the slowdown. we'll do everything we can to try to avoid a recession, but we are committed to bringing inflation down and we're going to do what we need to do and we're a long way away from achieving an economy na is back at 2% inflation. that's where we need to get to. >> neel kashkari, thank you for being with us. we'll be back in a moment. ye'n animal in the attic. (loud drumming) yeah yeah yeah yeah!!!! (animal drumming in distance) (loud drumming) drums! drums! at least geico makes bundling our home and car insurance easy. we save a lot. for bundling made easy, go to geico.com. ♪ ♪

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look professional. ♪♪ even if you don't feel it. meta portal. the smart video calling device... - right on time! - of course. that makes work from home work for you. so, shall we get started? 100 days and counting until the midterm elections. a sterling opportunity for our cbs news battleground tracker. and our first estimate of where the battleground control for the house of representatives stands.

republicans who currently hold 214 of 435 seats and are in the minority would take over control in the house by anywhere from a narrow majority to a sizable one if the election were held today. our best estimate at the moment is 230 seats. joining us now to explain all of this is cbs news elections and surveys director anthony salvanto. that number, 230, sticks in our mind, but what is the largest reason that it looks like it might be 230. >> good morning, john. let's start by reminding people there are 435 separate contests going on this fall. and we interviewed people across all those districts and put it into this model to show you that in terms of seats, which is what matters. the first thing you notice is most seats don't flip. that's typical. but there is a narrow band in which we're going to trade in this range. and that's what's really important to watch. now, these seats that could swing back and forth, sort of

prevailing political winds, if you will. and this election seems like it is really influenced by what we might call the nature of the times, which is that a lot of people think that the country is moving in the wrong direction. things aren't good. and that's not only the most important thing voters are telling us that is on their minds, but it is also that republicans are winning those voters and so that's really impacting those seats. >> and so the nature of the times is often associated with the president, the president is often -- you know, joe biden wouldn't like this, seen as a referendum on the presidency. what does the survey tell us about joe biden and the role he's playing in the election. >> a president is always on the ballot in the midterm and he's not really on the ballot, he's on voters' minds. certainly the case here. he's a big motivator for republicans, and that's pretty typical because a president's party typically loses seats in a midterm. for them it is another bite at the apple. they get to vote again if you will after 2020. now, the important thing, though, that leads to is biden

suffered some lower approval, even among democrats, and that's dampening enthusiasm among democrats and that's leading to another problem for the party right now, which is perhaps lower turnout from his base. >> so republicans are angrier about the way things are happening now, turning out and they don't like the president. so the democrats, remind me again what they feel about joe biden and what they feel about donald trump who used to motivate them quite stroonngly. >> couple of things. if they are disappointed with joe biden they may sit this out. you look at key parts of the democratic constituency, one example, young people. far less enthusiastic about voting than older americans. that makes the electorate favor the republicans right there, that democratic base doesn't show up. then, let's mention the former president trump. it is interesting, he's just as much of a motivating factor as joe biden. he's still on democrats' minds,

even though he's out of office. so for republicans, they see him as a positive. they actually think former president trump is fighting for their issues more than their party in congress. still seen as a leader of the party in that regard. for democrats, he's in the negative. that's something to watch, do democrats keep talking about him as we go forward, because he does motivate democrats. >> motivating both parties. have the january 6th hearings played a role or do they in your survey data? >> in some sense democrats are watching it more. they're kind of preaching to the converted. what you do see is as republicans have tuned out these hearings, there is a bit of a split. there is the republicans who consider themselves maga republicans. that's over half the party, right? they're very clesose to the forr president. they not only tuned it out. some wish the president had succeeded in doing what he was -- they think he was trying to do, stay in office. but there is a slight, slight

number of republicans who are watching this, and you see a little bit more hesitancy among them about their vote choice. so marginal differences matter, and i think that's going to be one of the keys going forward if some republicans peel off as a result of this. >> another focus in the political world other than the january 6th hearings has been the decision on roe v. wade. a lot of democrats, pundits thought this would energize the democratic base. what does the survey say? zbl >> let's look at women under 50. they consider abortion to be just as important as other big issues like the economy, like inflation. they also believe that a republican congress would make things overall worse for women. and they described the republican party as extreme. but there is a cross pressure here, which is that they don't see the democrats as effective as they don't think the democrats are doing enough right now to protect abortion rights. so they're not necessarily seeing the answer from the democrats and that at the moment has the democrats not doing as

well with that group as they have in past elections. >> so does that mean they have an opinion about republicans, but it doesn't mean they're going to be motivated to necessarily vote on it? >> right. they need an answer from the democrats and they're not seeing that right now. >> inside the question of women, college educated women, that's a group that democrats did well with. how are they doing now? >> worse than they have in previous elections and that's so important. those numbers are down. they think that the republican congress would make things worse for women in the country, but concerned about the economy. very concerned about the direction of the country. and all of those things are factoring in too. this is going to be one of the keys if not the key group to watch through the fall. >> quickly, the democrats think they have a spending bill about to pass through the senate. will that help their fortunes in the next 1100 days. >> people will reason from results, the cash register and the gas pump, not necessarily legislation.

when people say they're personally affected, they're less enthusiastic about voting for democrats. they have six to eight weeks to see if people can -- if they can turn that idea around in people's minds. >> anthony salvanto, thank you so much, as always. and we'll be right back.

we're back with our political panel. a asma haleed, jonathan martin, the co-author of "this will not pass," ramesh ponnuru, and robert costa, our own election and campaign correspondent. great to have you all here. i'll start with you, ramesh. what did you take away from this polling that we -- that anthony just talked about? >> a lot of interesting findings in the poll. the thing that stuck out most to me was the asymmetry in enthusiasm that republicans are more excited, opponents of this administration are more enthusiastic about showing up to vote, that's a pattern we usually see in midterms, it is the reason why i think we had so few periods of unified

government in the last 50 years that the public turns against whoever is in power in the white house. >> you cover the white house, joe biden talked about getting out into the country, but ramesh is talking about a country that may not want to see him. what is the thinking, get him out there because to build enthusiasm or keep him at home because that won't work? >> well, i do think the plan is to get him out there once this covid sweep clears. but i think the thinking is, we look at this past week, there are a couple of legislative wins that democrats have had. i think the party, the white house believes that by going out on the road and selling some of the legislative accomplishments they can boost the base. i think this is a challenge. i saw the enthusiasm too, and what i was struck with was you talk about young voters, should, they never show up in a midterm cycle but they did show up in record numbers in 2018. their enthusiasm has completely fallen off for biden. you see it in polling. i've heard it when i go out on the road. they're just not excited about

it. >> it has fallen off. in '18, it may have been inspired by donald trump. no one turns them out like donald trump in both parties. >> it is remarkable the co-dependence on donald trump within the democratic party. seven years and counting now, in which donald trump offered the best mobilization, the best fund-raising and just the best overall grassroots energy for the democratic party, john. and democrats quietly sort of need that to get their voters out in an otherwise difficult election year for them. those numbers of younger voters in the survey are so striking. i think a big part of the reason, john, biden's approval rating is below 40% nationally is because the dropoff in his own party. you're only below 40 in these polarized times if you're losing folks on your own home team. that's a huge part of their challenge. keeping those folks energized and why the climate deal could

be important. it was hatched this past week, getting more energy infused into the ranks of younger democratic voters who they desperately need this fall. >> to build on that, it is an important point, i remember when i covered leader mcconnell years ago, the person that would stop by more than anybody it seemed was then president joe biden. he was a dealmaker. they said they wanted to elect a dealmaker who could make washington work. you do wonder as the campaign season heats up, can the deal make an aspect of biden someone from the white house who shepards a deal, can he get traction with voters who see washington as dysfunctional. >> back to the absolute base level of politics, but let's talk about policy for a second. as bob is mentioning, there is this deals here that the president may or may not have been involved in. what do you make of the legislative record and bipartisan legislative record between guns and infrastructure maybe now, well, semiconductors,

what do you make of the legislative record so far? >> i think that the legislative record is very impressive, measured against a baseline of a 50/50 senate. the legislative record is extremely disappointing measured against the baseline of the expectations that liberal democrats had going into 2021 when they had the house, the senate and the white house. and there were grand ambitions. and one of the reasons for that dropoff in support and the demoralization of democrats is exactly that gap, and that's what they have got to solve between now and november. >> you're saying, yeah. >> i was going to say, look, i think biden sees these victories, john, as his rational for why my party needs me. i came here to make this system work, get deals done across the aisle, gosh darn i've done it, who else can do that? and by the way, also not so subtly he's saying who can beat

trump as well? i think there are some democrats who have this west wing style fantasy in which biden signs bills into law, he puts down the pen and does the reverse lbj of after a period of great success, he says, with that, i'm going to fulfill my pledge to be a bridge president, the gate is open. let the bridge fill up. and that's just never going to happen. we know joe biden. he's going to take from this success, john, i think, affirmation that my party, my country needs me, i can get these kind of deals done in the congress, i can take on trump again, i alone, if you will, can do this. >> can fix it. >> exactly. >> one thing that president biden said this week when asked about a recession, the economy is on everybody's mind, he said he didn't see one. is that a wise thing to do, to get into a big debate about the recession or do they assume there is going to be people talking about the rescession -- >> all week long we had the white house, the economic

advisers at the white house reaching out to -- white house reporters like myself, to preemptively squash the bad news that we knew was going to happen. but i do think to your point, many of the economists that i was speaking with this week will say, no, we don't see a recession at this particular moment, but in the same breath they said we don't know, we might be in a recession in six months if the fed really does raise interest rates too quickly. to me it was a dangerous argument to make, because, you know, it will be played on repeat later, if the country is in a recession in six months. i understand the political need to essentially alleviate concerns. nobody wants to hear, i think, in the country now, we're in a recession, but it is dangerous because six months out, frankly, even before the midterms, this country could be in a recession. >> is anybody talking about the economy from the democratic side who is making a case that is, in all of its complexity, but makes the case essentially to voters, you are going to want us in the future instead of the other team? >> well when i'm out there on

the campaign trail, it is evident there is not necessarily an enthusiasm gap, but a messaging gap. are the democrats explaining what they have done? $1.9 trillion march of 2021, then they passed an infra infrastructure bill and now this package they're pushing forward, is that breaking through to the voters it needs to connect with? it is not entirely clear. and they're talking about foreign policy in terms of the economy. this is a former chairman of the senate foreign relations committee, now sitting there in the oval office, as china becomes more aggressive with taiwan, that's the variable i'm also watching ahead of the midterms, both politically, on policy, and economically. what does china do and how does president biden respond? >> ramesh, do you think -- let's imagine this gets through, manchin, schumer and sinema comes along. does that at the end of the day matter, or is it, you know, for every day between now and election people will still be seeing higher prices and what is your assessment of its political

affect? >> people don't wait to hear from the media or the nber whether they're in a recession. if most people's paychecks is going, you know, is not going as far as it used to, and that is true, they're going to think this is a recession, they're going to think this is a bad economy and hold the party in power accountable. this administration i think is consistently played the politics of the economy badly. first, in denying that inflation was going to happen, denying it was going to stick around and now getting into this absurd definitional argument about whether we're in a recession or not. i think that is going to actually slightly compound the problem by making them also look out of touch. >> jonathan martin, the senate, let's look at the senate first of the two. how do the races look there? and this was supposed to be a favorable year for republicans. how is it turning out? >> the wind is blowing in their

direction, as it often does in the first midterm of a president of the opposite party. but i think in senate races and gubernatorial races, candidates do still matter. they don't matter as much in house races which is more of a parliamentary referendum on the red versus blue and who is in power. i think it does matter more who the candidate is on the ballot, when talking about senate races. in that department, the republicans are having a real challenge. they nominated candidates who in some cases are out of the mainstream, in other cases have more baggage than during the summer this and can create some challenges. the third point, the finances, a lot of these gop candidates will be welfare cases and that is always a problem and they need a bailout from a lot of the super pacs. the great irony of our times this cycle at least is the donald trump-backed candidates for senate and gov are going to require bailouts, financially, from people like mitch mcconnell and the old guard who they ran

against. >> let's not forget, the republicans are not focused everywhere on the economy. you look at pennsylvania's gubernatorial nominee, doug mastriano, election denier, out in arizona, kari lake, election denier, this is pervasive, and i'm watching ohio senate race, can tim ryan, a populist democrat, beat jd vance in a tough year and can john fetterman running for senate in pennsylvania upset dr. oz in a state that went for trump in 2016? >> i'm curious how democrats are really able to capitalize on the d dobbs decision t. this is very unclear. ckansas is this place where voters have a chance to vote on a constitutional amendment to change abortion rights in the state. i sat down with the vp shortly after the decision came out. and she told me, this is something that she has personally been going out to states, north carolina, indiana, where it is not entirely settled law yet. i don't know that any of us really know how it is going o play out. >> polling shows it is not

working. democrats think the white house isn't doing a good job in making the case. >> they haven't sufficiently done a good enough job yet, but it is one thing democrats could -- if they want to shift the conversation away from the economy, this is a salient issue to do that on. >> real fast, to plug our book shapelessly, "this will not pass," you can buy it now, we have a conversation with mitch mcconnell on the late night of january 6th, he vowed to crush trump in the primaries this year. the opposite happened and a lot of these states, john, trump-backed candidates won, dr. oz, jd vance, blake masters in arizona, now mcconnell has to help them out financially. >> 30 seconds. >> if the wave is sufficiently strong for the republicans, it can carry flawed candidates to victory. but the trouble is that it is going to take more resources. and some of these candidates are

going to take more resourceses from the national republican party and that money won't be able to gth gettable races across the finish line. >> thank you all of you for being with us. we're out of time. thank you, all, out there for joining us. we'll be back in just a moment. made my joints stiff, swollen, painful. emerge tremfyant®. tremfya® is approved to help reduce joint symptoms in adults with active psoriatic arthritis. some patients even felt less fatigued. serious allergic reactions may occur. tremfya® may increase your risk of infections and lower your ability to fight them. tell your doctor if you have an infection or symptoms or if you had a vaccine or plan to. emerge tremfyant® with tremfya®. ask you doctor about tremfya® today. meet google pixel 6a a smarter phone for a smarter price powered by the google tensor chip so your camera can see in the dark with night sight fix your photos with magic eraser photograph all skin tones accurately with real tone and last up to 72 hours with extreme battery saver

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that's it for us today. thank you for watching. margaret will be back next week. for "face the nation," i'm john dickerson.

tonight, tens of millions of americans are dealing with extreme weather. in kentucky, more rain is soaking the state, already struggling to recover from catastrophic flooding, the death toll now at 28. the scope of the destruction still unfolding. in the pacific northwest, a heat dome that sizzled for days with triple-digit temperatures is forecast to spread east this week. while california tonight battles that state's biggest fire so far this year. the inferno seen here from space. cbs' joy benedict is in los angeles with more.