welcome back to "face the nation." for a closer look at our cbs news battleground tracker poll, we're joined by cbs news elections and survey director, anthony salvanto. good to have you here. >> thanks for having me. >> you get busier as we get closer to the midterms and you tested a number of big ideas. what are voters telling you they think is at stake? >> it gives you a sense of the stakes here in the minds of voters, which they say are very large. 68% say their rights and freedoms are potentially at stake in this election. and for context, that's even more than, say, things like their finances and their financial well-being is at stake here. now, look, there's always in every election the campaigns will say, this is the most important election ever. to, we step back and say, okay, be specific. what do you think will happen

were one side or the other to win? one thing that stands out is people think that if the republicans take control of congress, that women, by 3 to 1, will have fewer rights and freedoms than they currently do than would have more. and some of that is related to views on abortion, which we'll get to in a second. there's also -- there's other groups that stand out here. for example, lgbtq folks, voters think will have fewer rights if republicans were to win. the other are views tied to democracy, which a lot of people worry about right now, and that comes out in some of these findings, too. >> this is -- election are central to democracy, so what is it that people see at risk here when you ask that? >> three-quarters of people continue to think democracy is under threat. to your point about elections, we asked people because there's so many context here, people are still talking about election denialism, still arguing about what happened in 2020. okay, what happens if your side

loses this time? republicans, what happens if democrats win a state or district and vice versa? a third of republicans and half of maga republicans specifically, and just under 1 in 5 democrats said their party should be prepared to challenge states and districts that they lose. >> a third of republicans? >> it's a third of republicans. and it's even higher for maga republicans, yeah. >> and the election hasn't happened yet. >> it hasn't happened yet. >> it shows a distrust in the institution itself. >> absolutely. i think that's the critical point. if we have this distrust in the process, in the way that we adjudicate our differences here going in before it's even settled, that's part of what's underpinning, people see that -- >> that's the whole ball game when it comes to democracy itself. i know you also -- we referenced the fact that when it comes to how close this race could be, it's narrowing here. republicans have a narrow advantage. >> a lot of that relates for democrats to the abortion issue. let me start with that.

because it's also very much what the democrats want this race to be about, in part. democrats have a growing lead among people who say abortion is the most important issue. and in particular for women who want abortion to be legal, it's the most important thing. it's more important than inflation. it's more important than the economy. it's a deal-breaker. they have to have that position in a candidate to vote for them. by contrast, let me turn to the republicans for a second, they continue to have their lead on the economy. it hasn't grown. it's stable. there's plenty of voters out there that think they're not talking about it enough, but the other thing they kind of want this election to be about is immigration. we tested in this case. there's a big part of the republican base, 9 in 10, who like the idea of moving migrants from border areas into democratic-leaning areas. >> wow. >> why is that important with the base? well, to the extent this is a turnout election, it's important to motivate your base.

okay, republicans really like that. it's much more mixed with the rest of the public. but they sefk specifically like it for one reason they think it calls attention to the problem. and to the extent it's putting that more on the radar, it is for indiependents, for republicn voters and back to what is this election going to be about. >> we're in the final weeks. what is the closing argument? >> one is you're going to hear about democracy. you'll see this back and forth. abortion rights, immigration, the economy. the other part of it is, there's half of each party's voters, about, that see the other side, not as political opposition but as enemies. and it's a little sobering to see that. but you have to out from that think, what happens if you view the other side as somebody you can't work with, it's a threat to your way of life? in some ways it justifies any action. it justifies things that you might say or do, that you wouldn't otherwise if you still believed in the system. and i think that, again, it's

difficult to say and we should emphasize it's not everyone, but oftentimes those folks are the most ideological, they have the loudest voices and certainly drive the narrative a lot. that's very much what you're going to see. then the parties start to say, well, those people vote, those people are going to turn out. if you see the campaigns talking about why the other side is bad, and a lot of voters say that's what the campaigns are mostly talking about, that runs counter to what you usually see where campaigns are saying, what can we do for you. >> right. the affirmative argument. >> right. >> anthony, some really sobering perspective here. thank you for all your work on this. we'll be right back. welcome to ameriprise. i'm sam morrison, my brother max recommended you. so my best friend sophie says you've been a huge help. at ameriprise financial, more than 9 out of 10 of our clients are likely to recommend us. our neighbors the garcia's, love working with you. because the advice we give is personalized. hey john reese, jr. how's your father doing? to help reach your goals with confidence. my sister told me so much about you. that's why it's more than advice worth listening to.

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vanished nearly two years of gains. interest rates up three points in six months. and worse, we're all flying blind here. >> no one knows with any certainty where the economy will be a year or more from now. >> reporter: that uncertainty is now hitting us where we live. >> i do like these cabinets. >> reporter: in america's worsening housing crunch. over that two-year feeding frenzy to overpay, many buyers shudder at mortgage rates above 6%, the highest in 14 years. >> what's even more significant is how much sellers are pulling back. if you borrowed money at 3% to buy a house, you're never going to leave. >> reporter: another issue, so-called shelter inflation. surging home prices and rents racing faster than wages. >> it's not just one part of the country, it's almost all parts of the country. >> reporter: moody's analytics says more than half of america's largest regional markets are significantly overvalued. by 25% or more.

210 out of 413 markets, many pandemic boom towns. 72ered>>ate prices nationwide, you know, across all these markets, to probably fall about 10% peak to trough, you know, over the next year or two. >> reporter: housing is notoriously cyclical. what goes u must come down. in a recession, expect the law of gravity here to kick in with a vengeance. moody's predicts home value declines could double. for now, few experts predict a housing crash, a plunge in home values as deep and painful as in the great recession. but in much of america, affordable housing is an ongoing crisis. many experts say that should improve slowly, if the fed can nudge supply and demand into a healthier place and confidence in the economy can find a new

home of its own. >> the sales volume is going to be low. prices are going to come down some, but the bottom isn't going to fall out of the market. >> that's mark strassmann reporting from atlanta. we turn now to the president of the federal reserve bank of atlanta, raphael bostic. good morning to you, sir. it's good to have you back. i want to get your perspective. we know stock market is not the economy, but it is a forward-looking indicator. and it's showing some concern right now. around the world, central banks are trying to get control of inflation. the fed has already raised rates five times this year. why isn't inflation coming down? >> well, first of all, good morning, margaret. it's really good to see you. you know, inflation is high. it's too high. and we really need to do all that we can to make it come down. when you think about its source, because we have very high demand, we have not enough supply. as long as you have that gap, prices are going to be feeling

upward pressure. we've got to narrow that gap. what weere hoping would happen is that we'd see some movement on the supply side to move the supply up so that there wasn't so much of an auction on goods in the marketplace, but that hasn't happened. that really has meant we have had to turn to our policies to try to take demand down and reduce its level. i think a lot of what you saw in the lead-in piece here is that that demand is starting to shrink. ultimately, that will start to pay dividends when we think about inflation levels. >> so, these higher interest rates for businesses, you know, it makes it more expensive for them to get loans. for consumers t makes it more expensive to get mortgages, credit card debt, loans. that's how it sort of cools things off a little bit. we've already had two back-to-back quarters of negative gdp growth, which would put us in that category of recession. how significant of a pullback

are you expecting here? >> well, first of all, i think the gdp number is one way to think about the economic performance, but many others would suggest that the economy has a lot of positive momentum. we're still creating lots of jobs on a monthly basis. i actually think there is some ability for the economy to absorb our actions and slow in a relatively orderly way. we need to have slowdown. there's no question about that. we are going to do all we can at the federal reserve to avoid deep, deep pain. i think there are some scenarios where that's likely to happen. >> deep, deep pain or that you can avoid the deep, deep pain? >> that we can avoid the deep, deep pain. thank you for that. sorry. >> allen blinder, former vice chair of the federal reserve wrote a piece in the journal this week, and he said that the chances of a softish landing, based on history, are well under 50%, but above zero.

what are the odds here that this is a soft landing? >> well, i'm not an odds person. people who know me know i don't like to gamble because i hate to lose money, but i will tell you, this is something that's going to be hard. it's not going to be easy. there will likely be some job losses. but i think if you look over the historical history here and our economic experiences, there's a really good chance that if we have job losses, it's going to be smaller than what we've seen in other situations and that's what i'm banking on. i talked to business leaders in people in communities across the southeast, they are concerned but they do still feel there's a way to get to 2% in terms of inflation that will still leave them in a good place. and leave our economy in a place where it is poised to grow and be resilient. >> you're still sticking with 2%? >> that's our target. we haven't changed my view. i haven't changed my view on

that. i'm going to keep working to make sure inflation moves in that direction as soon as possible. >> at the beginning of june, jamie dimon, ceo of jpmorgan, predicted an economic hurricane. this week he was before congress and he said some of the challenges facing the u.s. are persistent inflation, shocks from russia's war in ukraine and rising oil prices. you can't control some of those things. are we in the eye of this storm? is this the hurricane? >> so, i don't know if it's a hurricane. look, there are lots of things that have happened over the last several months that really have been unexpected and have made our job more difficult. you know, the war in ukraine definitely disrupted supply chains and i think set us back in terms of our recovery by many months. so, that's real. but there are also some positive things happening. just last week we averted the rail strike. i think that was a very positive thing. and we are still hearing, as i talk to businesses, that they are not expecting that they are

going to have to lay off people very soon. so, we have momentum. and we should not lose sight of that as we start to see demand come down and us under control. >> so, tell me about that. you look at the american south. we just did this cbs news polling to get political views. and we're seeing people in the state of georgia have a rosier view of the economy than people nationwide. so 55% of georgia voters describe the economy to us as good. nationwide, only 28% say that. so, that's perception. what's reality? and what's happening in the south that's not reflected in the rest of the country? >> well, i can't speak for the rest of the country. what i will tell you is here in atlanta, there is still considerable job growth. businesses are saying they are seeing a lot of economic potential. and that is shaping, i believe, the willingness to invest in the future.

my expectation is that as we move along and we start to get inflation more under control, that viewpoint will become more generalized across the country and people will be able to look over longer horizons and see there's potential out there. so i understand we've got a lot of uncertainty now. the situation in russia that you spent the first part of this show on has got everyone on edge. but we do know that some bottlenecks are starting to ease. and i'm hopeful that over the next several months we'll start to see that gap between the high demand and that lower supply narrow significantly, which will then translate into inflation moving closer to our target. >> you have job growth, you said, in the south. do you have enough workers? >> well, we do have the challenge of a tight labor force. everyone i talk to says, look, it's harder to find workers than it has -- than it was two years ago. >> is the solution immigration? >> well, immigration could

contribute to that. but what i would say is, our business leaders have said, it's not as hard today as it was a month ago. so, they are starting to see those challenges ease up. look, we have lots of complexity in our labor market. we know inflation is down. we know that families have done a lot of rethinking about whether they need two earners or whether they should keep someone home. we have challenges in terms of child care. there's a lot of churn in our labor markets that we're going to have to monitor. i'm grateful. my team, we've been doing a lot of good research and we've identified some places to focus on that will give us a good clue as to the extent to which labor markets are easing. >> we'll be watching for that. thank you for your time today. we'll be back in a moment.

we turn now t juath and the congressional investigation into the attack on the capitol. joining us is congressman pete aguilar who is on that committee and joins us from los angeles. good morning to you. >> good morning, margaret. >> we had a poll, as you may have heard out, that shows one-third of republicans and half of self-described maga

republicans think that the party should plan to challenge states and districts that democrats win. this is in november. 17% of democrats feel they should challenge if the gop wins. what does that say to you about trust in elections and the risk of political violence like we saw on january 6th? >> it tells me that we have more work to do, but it's deeply alarming that we had a former occupant of the white house who any time result went a different way than he wanted, called it fake news. and he sought to undermine our democratic institutions time and time again. so, it's not much of a surprise that some of that has seeped into the american public. but our job is to make sure that we protect democracy and do ev to p fromppeninargince july.it willa tivities are a f that a festivd

that the committee is still in discussions with mike pence's counsel, but she's he has an obligation to appear. where do you fall on that? do you need to subpoena him or is that written testimony you'd accept? >> well, i think it's important that we hear from the vice president. but the committee's work continues. we haven't made a determination on where we go with the vice president specifically. those continue to be evolving discussions, and if there is something to announce, i'm sure the chairman will announce that. but what i think is more important is this hearing that we have coming up on wednesday, will be a continuation of what we heard in june and july, which was that the president played a direct role in trying to undermine our democratic institutions and prevent a peaceful transfer of power. >> so, the focus is not

specifically on the vice pr wel have ondnesdaair to sayt --e president faced, that was the hearing i led in june, that was a key focal point of the committee's work. there are new details that we have learned broadly about the investigation and we plan to share some of those this week. >> to that point, congresswoman cheney said there are 800,000 pieces of communications the committee has received from the secret service. what is in those documents? how material is it? >> well, we appreciate that we have finally started to get the documents that we asked for a year ago from the united states secret service. these are still not -- the text messages that were discussed

before, but these seem to be communications internally among staff members. there's a lot of information that our investigative team has been going through. we will detail, up, all of it on wednesday. but it's important that they are providing the information and that it continues to help in our investigative work. understand what exactly was happening on january 5th and january 6th as this rally was happening and as the president was directing the mob to go to the capitol. >> so, the lead secret service officer on the then president's detail, tony ornato, has been in question. he retired over.can y he can to? >> well, that's a conversation for him and his attorney. we remain deeply wanting to hear from him. the secret service indicated they would make him available prior to his retirement, and then he coincidentally went out and retired. so, we feel that it's important. he has spoken to us, but

obviously we've heard new details since his testimony that we feel are important to ask. so, he and others remain an important part of our investigative work that continues. >> do you mean to suggest that he retired so he wouldn't have to testify? >> i'm just saying that the timeline is the timeline. we were in conversations to hear from him and then he retired. so, as a private citizen, we will continue to work with his private attorney to see if -- to see if he will come before the committee and share additional testimony with us. woisonedthe tcrital the s critics have pointed to the fact that you took a break over the summer as a counterpoint to n' t immediate if you went away for six weeks. how do you respond to that? >> well, i can assure you that and anyone looking at the calendar for the nine of us on

the select committee would know we didn't go away. the investigative team continued their work, they continued looking through the documents that you referenced earlier. we continued to investigate, take depositions and testimony from key witnesses. all of those happened. they just happened out of public view. so, we look forward to continuing this discussion over 20 hours of hearings that we have had so far. we look forward to the hearing this week. but ultimately, this is about protecting our democracy and the final report in the future will have the committee's stamp of what we do next. and what happened, where we go from here and how precious democracy is and how important ouan s the january 6th man, tha. hearing on wednesday. we'll be right back. let's be real... who has the time to clean an hour or two a week?

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that's it for us today. thank you for watching. since we ran out of time in our interview, jake sullivan did want to clarify that when it comes to iran, the biden administration still believes in nuclear diplomacy, but is not close to a deal at this point. we will see how things unfold. until next week, for "face the

>> announcer: this is the "cbs overnight news." we begin with ian. it is the ninth named storm in the atlantic, and now the biggest threat to florida so far this hurricane season. ian is barreling toward cuba. this video showing that heavy rain from the storm was shared by a cbs news producer who is there. ian is clearly rapidly intensifying. people in florida who are clearly no strangers to this type of weather are being urged to get ready. today near tampa you see people filling up sandbags. others race to buy essential supplies. meanwhile, governor ron desantis has declared this a