morning. ♪ i'm margaret brennan. this week on "face the nation." has the democratic momentum heading into the midterm elections stalled? democrats' hopes of a last-minute economic rebound before election day were dashed with yet another round of sobering inflation numbers. indicating that the federal reserve's rate hikes so far haven't helped. president biden is talking up the party's economic efforts on the campaign trail and warning about the alternative. >> republican wins, inflation's going to get worse. it's that simple. >> but will voters buy what he's selling, with prices so high and no relief in sight? infrastructure is at the heart of the administration's economic plans. we'll talk to transportation

secretary pete buttigieg. and university of michigan economist betsey stevenson, she'll tell us about the financial pressures facing americans, especially parents. the global economy is also struggling, adding to the pressure, russia's attacks in ukraine intensify, destroying regional supply lines and energy infrastructure. ukraine's ambassador to the u.s. oksana markarova will join us. then dramatic video from the congressional investigation into the january 6th attack shows lawmakers pleading for help to secure the capitol. >> tremendous and all instigation of the president of the united states. >> i'm going to call up the secretary of d.o.d. >> we have some senators still in their hideaways. they need massive personnel now. >> we'll learn more about the behind the scenes from the au authors of a new book "unchecked." it's all just ahead on "face the nation."

good morning and welcome to "face the nation." we are just over three weeks away from midterm election day. voters are already casting ballots in 18 states and voting will start in 8 more this week. what are they focused on and which party do they think should be in control of the house and senate as well as the 36 states where there are ongoing contests for governor? our new cbs news battle tracker are showing republicans are still favored to capture the house with six seats more than they need to take control. our last estimates showed democrats narrowing the gap but that momentum has stalled. cbs news elections and surveys director anthony salvanto is

here to tell us why. good morning to you, anthony. what indicates momentum is stalling and why? >> good morning, margaret. this is the first time since we've updated the tracker throughout the summer and into the fall where democrats haven't been cutting into that republican lead. and it comes at a time when people think the economy is getting worse. in fact, two-thirds of people say that. we've gotten bad news tis week about inflation and the way people react to that is with gasoline. this august people thought they saw gasoline prices going down, now they are going up. we wanted to understand, how does this connect politically? i asked specifically, who's responsible for this? are the democrats and joe biden responsible for this? the answer is, somewhat. people understand there are other factors there. they know there's global factors, they know there's supply issues, but democrats are

on balance seen as having been more harmful than helpful. now, a president is always somewhat tied to their economy. and joe biden, when asked, gets some responsibility for this. not necessarily a lot. but two-thirds of people do say they think he and the administration could be doing more. so, all that nets out. democrats are still losing people for whom the economy is the most important issue. they're still trailing with people who say their financial situation isn't good and that is part of the reason that stalled. i should add this. up until now we talked a lot about the abortion issue because that's been underpinning a lot of those democratic gains. it is still critical. democrats are still winning voters who prioritize the abortion issue. but the thing is, there are not more of them in the electorate now than last month.

it's always this fight about what is this election about, to the fact democrats cannot make it more about the abortion issue than it has been, that helps keep those -- that balance of power in place. >> right. turnout is always a factor. we know voter turnout is typically higher in that group 65 and older. for people on fixed income, inflation is really painful. what are you seeing? >> it's really a concern. i'm glad you raised it because what happens is they show concern about inflation, about prices. they also show concern about the stock market because, you know, retirees might have money in the market, of course. that's out there as well. you're right, they do vote. in our models, they are showing up. they are saying they are going to show up and that's typical for a midterm. it's really an important voting bloc. >> anthony, what could change here? >> let's look at the possibilities we can see in the data. right now the republicans have a turnout advantage. more of them say they're enthusiastic, more of them say they're definitely going to

vote. what could get the democrats in contention to maybe hold the house, it's young people. if young people were to show up more than they say they're going to, you plug that into the model and the democratic seat number goes up where they're right in contention to maybe get a bear majority. if you wonder how the democrats could hold the house, it's young people showing up more than they say they will. on the other hand, let's talk about that republican turnout advantage. there are so many close congressional districts that it wouldn't take very much for even more of them to flip to the republicans. so, if their turnout advantage goes up even a little bit more, a lot of those seats are going to fall their way and the model would estimate they would get into the 230s. and that would be an even larger majority. so, your takeaway there is, yes, a lot of this comes down to turnout, but that is specifically how. >> anthony salvanto, you're going to be busy. thank you very much. races are tightening in the senate, too.

35 states hold contests november 8th. cbs news has identified ten important ones that could determine the majority. there are five that we're watching very closely. georgia, pennsylvania, wisconsin, arizona and nevada. later on in the broadcast, we'll be taking a closer look at that georgia race because it has gotten a lot of attention lately. we now want to turn to the secretary of transportation, pete buttigieg. good morning and thank you for being here in person. >> good to be with you. >> i want to pick up where we left off on the polling because it looks like democrats have a problem here. as you heard, more than two-thirds of registered voters, 68% think your administration, the biden administration, could be doing more to combat inflation. this is a top concern for all voters. >> it's also a top concern for the president. it's one of the reasons why he's made clear that his top economic priority is fighting inflation. but there's a very clear choice right now between the policies we're advancing on capitol hill and in this administration and the policies that have been put forward legislatively by our

republican friends in congress. our focus has been on reducing the pressure of cost of living on families. for example, take the inflation reduction act. part of what that does at a time when we have pressure on people because the cost of living is going too high is to cut the cost of things like prescription drugs. of course, republicans voted against that. >> that's not -- >> but they've also made clear right now that they're proposing legislation to reverse that, to repeal that. you have something like letting medicare negotiate the price of prescription drugs. something americans have wanted to happen for years. we finally got it done. the president signed it. congress passed it. they're already seeking to reverse that. so, there's a very clear choice, clear differences on capitol hill and among officeholders where the focus for democrats, the focus for the president, is to cut that cost of living and to cut the pressure, give people more breathing room at a time where inflation remains a major concern.

>> it's not just drug prices that are the problem. across the board inflation is hitting people. the cost of shelter, incredible. the administration's policy, though, to speak about the affirmative, is you say it's a better platform. let's talk about it. if you pumped $3.6 trillion in fiscal spending into the economy and you're not politically getting credit for it and inflation is not coming down, how do you argue to the american people that it's actually the best alternative? >> well, because if we hadn't done that, i we hadn't rescu ec had the 10 milliont were created under this president. we wouldn't be seeing some of the lowest unemployment numbers in the history of the republic. we would be faced with the kinds of problems we were faced with when the president arrived, which was an economy facing a very real risk of freefall. we're in a situation right now where demand has come back. consumer confidence is up, people have more money in their pockets and an almost record

number of americans are working. the other side of that -- >> there's also record inflation. >> that's right. because the supply side is straining to keep up with the demand. >> that's one factor. >> i think really the main factor. imagine if we hadn't raised demand and supply was even worse. which is where we would have been if we hadn't had the infrastructure work, which is helping on the supply side. and the rescue of the american economy that has brought back demand. if anybody's asking, was it a good idea to rescue the american economy? the answer is, yes. >> it's not just republicans who make the argument that fiscal spending contributed to some of the inflation. in fact, some of the fiscal spending was under the last administration's watch as far as pouring in the rescue funds you're talking about. the san francisco fed has put forward estimates that between0 >>ot much it. >> it's not nothing. to argue government spending

isn't a contributor here doesn't fully play out. so, what is the alternative in a new congress? i mean, are you saying that -- we've got to stop spending here. we're not going to move on taxes but we're also not going to pump in more money. >> again, part of the challenge we have is the productive capacity of our country racing to keep up. so, failing to invest in that wouldn't make the problem better, it would make it worse. again, the numbers you just quoted to me would make clear a majority of inflation is not attributable to fiscal policy. according to the numbers that were just in the package just now, the american people understand that. they understand that inflation is a global phenomenon but we are fighting it here at home with measures to take that pressure off families. that's why we strongly believe that we should continue in the direction of prioritizing, not tax loopholes for billionaires, not corporate pfiut alwing aca be able toret making. cot to go through number on wha

politicaessaging is s ts weekco as hell but also, if there is a recession, it will be very slight. what exactly is the forecast? >> well, look, i mean, forecasting is, by its nature, something that is a little unce uncertain. what we know -- >> that's political spin. >> i don't think anybody could argue our unemployment numbers are anything but strong as hell. they're under 4%. we're at or near full employment. we also don't have any illusions thele challenges americans face with prices. that's why it's mystifying. you have republicans in congress arguing against the things we have done to give americans a little more breathing room. voting against measures to make prescription drugs cheaper, voting against the $35 insulin cap that's going to be especially important in the environment where you have inflation, against the energy credits that will help more americans save on energy. we are squarely focused on

making it easier for americans to get by i a moment, but quickly i want to ask you, you know, the president campaigned on a lot of things. paid leave is one of them. and democrats stripped that out of the legislation, that they were able to get through. >> i wouldn't describe that as something that democrats alone did, but, yes, obviously -- >> it didn't get through and you have unified control. i get it. in this new scenario we are talking about, you saw the numbers, it looks like a very real threat that republicans will control at least one house. so, are you acknowledging that basically you've gotten through what you can get through, give up on paid leave for the end of the biden administration? >> we're not going to give up on anything because these are good policies that are wildly popular among the american people. most republicans think this is a good policy. just not most republicans in congress. so, in the same way we were able to get that infrastructure bill through where a number of republicans crossed over to work with democrats on the

president's priority. i think any other priority, you have to at least give it a shot. i would point out after repeated declarations that the infrastructure bill was dead, the way that succeeded, as we news, they specifically validatenn aivided them done iant to get to infrastructure, the paid leave i was talking about the dispute between democrats, senator manchin and the rest of the party -- >> hold on. one republican were prepared to support paid leave, we would be in a different territory. let's not let 50 republicans off the hook because we couldn't get alignment with one or two democrats. >> so it will be taken up in congress? >> i don't know what the priorities of the new congress will be. i know that it's a good policy and we'll keep fighting to get it done. >> okay. and i'll keep asking about it. i want to ask you about infrastructure. so, you started dolling out some of the allocations that would

pardon more than $1 trillion infrastructure law. you have $120 billion that you personally, i guess, at the department have discretion over in awarding some of these projects. where do you prioritize it? we've had a number of mayors on this program talk about their frustration that the money is not getting to them. they know it's been promised, they've spoken to the white house but it's not getting to miami, florida, and jackson, mississippi. >> well, look, we've got a lot of discretionary grant programs to run over the course of the next five years. and a lot of applications come in. we say yes to as many as we can. and i can tell you, we're supporting infra eve with this wonderful funding, we won't be able to say yes to every single project that every local community wants to do, but with he can do more than we've ever done before. i've been one of those mayors, right? i've been a mayor knocking on the door of the d.o.t. trying to get funding. back then we only had a sliver to work with what we do now.

it's amazing, as i've traveled the country with good news on everything from port improvements that will help with our supply chain to fixing bridges that are so deteriorated that school buses and ambulances can't use them because there's a weight limit, to the inland empire, fontana, california, kids walking, having to compete with traffic basically along a highway to get to school. we're going to fix that. it's not going to be overnight. that's part of how it works with infrastructure. >> they've been frustrated it hasn't been delivered. it's been promised. we have to leave it there today. mr. secretary, thank you for coming on the program. we'll be back in a moment to stay with us on "face the nation." th is full, and shrimp is endless, the "booth bow" is the proper way to say "shrimp me!" ultimate endless shrimp is back, now with argentine red shrimp. welcome to fun dining. personalized financial advice from ameriprise can do more than help you reach your goals. i can make this work. it can help you reach them with confidence. no wonder more than 9 out of 10 of our clients

are likely to recommend us. ameriprise financial. advice worth talking about. if you haven't tried dawn powerwash dish spray, what are you waiting for?s. it's dawn's fastest and easiest way to clean everyday dishes. on simple messes... just spray, wipe and rinse. on tough messes, its spray activated suds have five times faster grease cleaning power to break down grease without water. plus, its targeted spray cleans even hard to reach places better. so, replace your dish soap with dawn powerwash and spray your dishes clean. we go now to the university of michigan professor betsey stevenson who previously served as department of labor chief economist under former presidnt obama. good morning to you. good to have you on the program. >> good morning. >> i want to get straight to it. last week one of the top fed officials, loretta mester said

inflation has not yet peaked. how much worse will it get n your view? >> well, i -- you know, it is hard to know how much worse it will get because what people really care a lot about is energy prices where things are really volatile. i think the thing economists are worried about, when we strip out those volatile food and energy prices and we look underneath that core inflation, and that's the stuff that's hard to bring down. and when that hit, you know, 6.6%, i think that, you know, made people very worried about how long that will last. and, you know, some of this, because we're going to see housing prices, rental prices continue to go up because a lot of the values of the homes already out there and that hasn't filtered through to cpi. and then there are people out there whose wages are so far below in real terms where they were, they're clamoring for a raise. i think those are the folks who aren't ready to say, you know,

i'm going to keep working at my current nominal wage. i think that's the kind of risk we're facing right now, is we're going to see these increased wage pressure that's going to keep pushing prices up. i don't think we have to worry, though, that it's going to go much above where it currently is, which is that sort of 6.6% as the core underlying inflation. we have to be worried that it's stuck there. >> well, there are plenty of people worried, based on our cbs news polling, 70% of voters believe the national economy is bad. 53% say their personal financial situation is good, so there's that. but a large part of the economy is consumer psychology here and what the consumer actually does and the perception is not that the economy is strong as hell, as the president said, but that these pricing pressures are hurting. >> you know, it's such a weird time because we have a record number of job opportunities out there. i mean, it is a great time to look for a new job, to take a

new job, and the people who are doing that are getting very large wage increases and being made better off. and hiring is just continuing, you know, at this really high rate. so, if you're thinking about finding work, changing jobs, better using your skills, it's a great economy. if you just want to stay where you're at and keep buying the stuff you were buying, you're struggling because you're seeing food prices are up, you're seeing medical costs going up. everything around you is going up a little bit. and if your boss doesn't want to give you a raise, you can't make ends meet. >> well, one of the areas that i know you focused on, and we want to talk about is the child care and caregiver shortage. that's one area of the economy where the bureau of labor statistics says there are 100,000 fewer child care workers now than there were before the pandemic. where did they go? what is going on? >> okay.

well, one thing is that we are missing a lot of foreign born women. that makes us confront the reality, which is immigrant women provide a lot of child care in this economy and they left. so, we just have fewer immigrant women. that's a direct answer to your question, where did people go. i think what's making everybody feel the pinch, the labor supply of parents, the share of parents in the labor force, both mothers and fathers, has returned to where it was pre-pandemic. as you just said, we're missing child care workers. so, no wonder parents feel like they're struggling because now they're trying to do it with less formal care. and i think that, you know, that is causing a lot of stress. and that problem is getting worse because, look, the median wage of a child care worker is still $12 an hour. so, you can do better going to mcdonald's, starbucks, target. there's a lot of jobs out there that will pay you more than $12 an hour. that's making it harder to hire

child care workers. that's why in the last jobs report, we saw a decline in child care workers when other things are continuing to grow, but if we paid child care workers more, where does that come from? that means increase in child care services and we get back to inflation. go ahead. >> we also have teacher shortages around the country. i mean, what are you seeing in terms of female employment and the return to the workforce? isn't that still a big problem? >> you know, actually, prime age women are back. that's our 25 to 54-year-old. they're not -- we sort of focus on that age because they're not in school, they're not retired. that age group is back. the problem we had, you know, with teachers, with airline pilots, with a lot of jobs is that people retired early. so, we're missing our sort of wen't thosetudent teachehe a 2.

notinin y . e osre retiring early. and then all the burden is falling on these sort of middle-aged teachers, pilots, all sorts of jobs like that. and it's making the job worse, which is putting, again, sort of upward wage pressure, which is leading to inflation. you know, the thing is people are very upset about inflation and they feel awful about it, but the reality is that inflation hurts some people more than others. it's not -- it's a generalized increase in prices but not all prices are, you know, raising the same amount. we have child care workers where the price of child care hadn't gone p to keep up with inflation. that's hurting people in the child care industry. and the result is, we have fewer people working in child care. but with we have parents, on the other hand, who can't really afford to pay more for child

care because they couldn't afford to pay for child care before we had inflation. that brings us back to needing a government solution to help ensure all families can afford high quality child care. >> that's why the next congress is going to matter so much. k youo muc for a yee out th willake a baknd be back with more "face the nation." stay with us. ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ you founded your kayak company because you love the ocean- not spreadsheets. you need to hire. i need indeed.

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