when our trumpet sounds again next sunday morn g. i'm margaret brennan in washington. and this week on "face the nation," it is iowa caucus eve. but the traditional presidential campaign kickoff this year is anything but. in 2024, the starting line on the road to the republican nomination is an icy one. >> negative 20, negative 22, and

brave it for a few hours. and go and caucus for me. i'll be in there, in that white house for eight years fighting for you. >> with sub-zero windchill temperatures predicted for monday. >> we have the worst weather in recorded history. but maybe that's good. our people are more committed than anybody else. >> few candidates are still committed. >> i don't play for second. i never played for second. i'm not going to start now. >> what is it about trump among gop primary voters that has him more than 50 points over any other candidates in our new national poll? we'll have some striking insights into voters' thoughts on trump's talk, and his policies. we'll talk to gop presidential contender and former arkansas governor asa hutchinson and new hampshire governor chris sununu. west virginia democrat joe manchin will join us. and we'll talk to john kirby

about the escalation of tensions in the middle east. and the growing controversy over defense secretary lloyd austin's secret hospitalization. it's all just ahead on "face the nation." ♪ good morning and welcome to "face the nation." we begin today not with what you do know, that it is very cold outside for most of the country, and that former president trump is looking strong in iowa, based on our reporting and state polls. we want to instead look at the bigger picture, that all three top gop contenders begin the year with a lead over president biden in our cbs news poll. former president trump is up two. florida governor ron desantis

has a three-point margin, 51 to 48%, both within the margin of error. it is former south carolina governor nikki haley who has the biggest lead, eight points, over president biden, at 53% to 45%. we turn now to cbs news executive director of elections and surveys, anthony salvanto, to tell us more. anthony, good to have you here. >> good morning. >> that's a pretty dramatic advantage for haley over biden. why is she outperforming him instead of trump or desantis? > republican voters think it is trump who has the best chance for them to beat biden. maybe they haven't seen this poll yet. but, look, haley is, on qualities people say they want in a president, better or about even with biden. things like empathy, things like ability to compromise, and toughness where she leads and does just as well as the other two desantis and trump. right. the other part of this,

margaret, demographics, she does well with women, she does better with independents, she does better getting people to cross over from biden 2020 to her. all of that reflects on the biden underperformance with his democratic base. and finally on this point, on the economy. we still see voters telling us by two to one that they feel like they might be worse off under biden than better off financially and that's important because it reflects this ongoing sting of what's happened with him and his ratings after inflation. even though voters are starting to say, like, they think the economy is starting to stabilize, a little bit of improvement there, he's not getting political benefit from that, partly because it is about the rate of change, inflation is slowing, but prices are still high. and that doesn't look like it is his argument is resonating that well right now. >> but, voters may not see this hypothetical head to head matchup because your poll found president trump with his biggest lead among gop primary voters

nationwide thus far this cycle. 55 points. what is driving it? >> indeed, look, some of this is he just spans different parts of the party and has appeal. for republicans who want a tax cut, he's theyir guy. for republicans who are maga, who want a more combative approach, who want that culture war, he's their guy. and part of it, just by the numbers, is he's got more strong supporters than anybody else, people who say they're considering only him, who will not change their minds. and that, throughout this campaign, has put a floor under his support that has been really hard for any other candidate to shake. and, look, that part in some sense is not news. but contextually as we go into this primary season, it is important to then reiterate that this is something, a phenomenon with this showing loyalty to an individual that we really have not seen for people in polling, in u.s. politics, other than for donald trump and that maga base.

>> so, what about the content of what he is saying and his platform? he constantly says i am your retribution, for example. what do voters think that means? >> well, the important thing here is comparing people who call themselves maga to the rest of the party, because the maga base is much more likely to say they like that idea, the idea of punishing or going after his political opponents if he gets into office. these are the kind of things that get the other campaigns to talk about authoritarianism, things that are potential threats to democracy, but in the eyes of the maga base, they bought the narrative that the election was stolen. they want to see pardons for the january 6th rioters. and all of that means to them that they had something taken from them, and they're trying to push back against it and donald trump is their vehicle for that. >> he's channeling something

there. >> yes. >> what about rhetoric like his remarks that immigrants are poisoning the blood of our country? >> majority of republicans say they agree with his statements. and we looked at it both ways. when we told them donald trump said it, even more agreed with it, so he has that effect. but they agree with it anyway, even when we didn't note that donald trump had said it. and that's important because it -- >> that's tremendous. >> it is. and i think it speaks not just to issues with the border, but also to larger issues of race in this campaign. and i'll point it out this way, when we asked people what they think of diversity efforts in the u.s., the people feel that diversity efforts in the u.s. have gone too far, are overwhelmingly voting for trump. but people who feel they haven't gone far enough are overwhelmingly for biden. and that tells you what that role of race is in the campaign, and that's an important dynamic, not just when we look at the

strong trump support, but what sets up one of the key narratives going forward in the '24 campaign. >> fascinating, anthony salvanto, thank you. >> thank you. our cbs mornings anchor tony dokoupil is in iowa and spoke yesterday to former governor nikki haley. >> iowans make their decisions very late. >> yes. >> this is still an open ball game. >> yes. >> what is your closing argument to them? >> the closing argument is let's get rid of the chaos, let's leave the old names to the past and move forward with a new conservative leader that is going to get our country back on track. we can't go through four more years of chaos. we can't go through trump or biden anymore. 75% of americans said they don't want a trump/biden rematch. we have to give them something else and that's what we're trying to do, give them a new option. >> i've been talking to voters for the past two weekends and a lot of voters like you very much. >> yea. >> but they say they're hoping you'll be a vp this time around, a vp to you know who. how do you feel about that? >> i don't play for second.

i never played for second. i'm not going to start now. i'm not interested in being vice president. i'm running to be president and i'm running to win and we will. >> what is the message to the voters in particular who like you enough to be vp, but are still stuck on donald trump? >> i think, look, if you want four more years of chaos, that's what you're going to get. but what's more concerning is if you look at the head to head polls, trump and biden are pretty much even, it is a nail biter of an election. we're going to be holding our breath. i don't want a president kamala harris. >> to talk more about this state of the contest, we turn to our cbs news political team in iowa, ed o'keefe, robert costa and major garrett. they're at gop headquarters in de moines, and amy walter of "the cook political report" is with me in studio. ed, what is driving the decision of these republican voters in iowa? >> well, margaret, happy sunday to you. if you talk to trump voters, they reflect back the anger, the resentment, the desire for payback that the former president continues to reflect on the trail.

most especially concerned about issues like border security, the future immigration policy in this country and the cost of things, inflation, reflecting back to us that they're concerned about gas prices, even though they're starting to come down, but also being able to own a home or even affordably rent an apartment. you talk to ron desantis' supporters, they generally agree with those views, but in the back of their minds they know donald trump can't necessarily win a general election. they're looking for someone else who can do that. whether or not there is enough of those people in iowa is the big question for the florida governor. i've been struck by nikki haley supporters, they're not angry, they're concerned about the future of the world, concerned that the president is allowing things in ukraine and the middle east and asia to spiral out of control. they're concerned that washington is needlessly spending money. in a word, they're concerned about the chaos, which is the word she uses so frequently as she did there in her conversation with tony and one that appears to be resonating here in the last few hours. >> bob costa, i know you were in

court earlier in the week, with mr. trump, and our polling shows those legal issues are a net positive for him with voters. is the trump campaign banking on that? >> margaret, good to be with you. usually in the closing stretch of the iowa caucuses there is an ideological debate inside the republican party, a standoff over the future of the gop, but instead we're seeing this explosion of grievance among trump supporters and inside the high command of the trump campaign, they're playing to that. when i spoke to former president trump in recent days, in lower manhattan, i said how do you see the campaign versus the courtroom? he said, bob, the campaign is the courtroom. he will keep making these appearances, playing to his supporters and saying he is with them, he's standing against an establishment he perceives as the enemy, and that he hopes and his officials hope will fuel his campaign in the coming weeks and if he makes it to the general election. >> major garrett, you covered a number of campaigns and adage

from pundits, national security doesn't really matter to voters. i want you to listen to something donald trump was asked last night in iowa. >> the world is in chaos, what happened with yemen and the strikes the last few days, ukraine, palestine, we don't know where the secretary of defense is right now. are we on the brink of world war iii? >> i think we're the closest we have ever been. joe, this won't be a regular war. this is not going to be as i say army tanks running back and forth shooting at each other. these are weapons of mass destruction the likes of which nobody has ever seen. i've seen. i've seen them. and this is obliteration. this is not a world war like we are used to. world war i, world war ii were terrible, horrible. this is so much bigger than that. this is, like, annihilation. >> i've seen them. major garrett, sounds like trump is saying, i alone can fix it.

>> so, i've been covering donald trump since 2015 and my conversations way back then, margaret, reminded me of something he's always possessed, a fear and a fascination about nuclear weapons and nuclear war. constant obsession with his, how to avoid it. that's one part of the answer. it is a legitimate one. most american presidents of the nuclear age felt that as well. trump is acutely fascinated by it and fearful of it. that's one of the reasons he began those negotiations, though unsuccessful with north korean dictator kim jong-un. this is also an answer about a larger context on american political life. if you're not a trump supporter, are you anxious about the future? do you believe a re-elected president biden would be strong enough, fit enough, courageous enough to handle an unstable world? trump is answering that. no, he won't. i will be. you may not like me, but i will be strong and i will be vigorous. that's one of the messages he's trying to convey with that annihilation answer. >> i mean, it is just chilling, amy, to hear some of the language that we are talking about being normalized on the

campaign trail. you said earlier this week, it is kind of hard to get excited about iowa and the contest where the front-runner is ahead by just so much. is this just a glide path to donald trump securing the nomination of the party? >> given the numbers that you all put out today, it sure looks that way. and every poll we have seen out of iowa suggess that as well. with the one road bump in the way being new hampshire. in part because the new hampshire electorate looks so different from iowa's, and from the next state with significant primary, which is south carolina. there you have in those two states more evangelical, more conservative republican. new hampshire, more independent voters. that's the nikki haley voter, right there, in new hampshire. so you can see her do well in the state like new hampshire, but that's not going to give her the sort of momentum to go into a place like south carolina that is going to look much more like what we're seeing in iowa. >> despite it being her home

state. >> despite it being her home state, it is still where donald trump has a great deep well of support. and i think the fascinating thing when you look back, thinking about where we were in at this point in 2020, and the debate on the democratic side was all about who could beat donald trump, and that's how even though he lost those first couple of contests, joe biden was able to come back and win because he was seen as the most electable. it is very clear who the most electable candidate is in every poll, not just the cbs poll and that's nikki haley. and that has done her no good. in part, because republican base believes that trump is going to win anyway, that he won the last time around, and when it is that close, which it was in 2020, it is just going to take a few thousand more votes to put it in trump's directio. >> ed o'keefe, you cover the biden white house, does the biden campaign believe they have a problem? >> not yet, necessarily, margaret. they like our polling, like just

about everyone else monitoring this closely, believe when all is said and done, former president trump will be the republican nominee. and they look at these numbers that continue to suggest that nikki haley is more electable and asked the question, some of them do, well, okay, let's say she's the nominee, where is donald trump at that point? what is he doing to help her or potentially hurt her by raising concerns? he would splinter the party, they believe ultimately, however, they are of the belief that most americans, despite those that loyally watch us here on "face the nation," aren't necessarily paying attention to this yet, don't believe that donald trump will ultimately prevail. it looks like he might and once that binary choice is before the american people again, the white house believes they'll be able to win it. but, they caution, not about today, the polling today doesn't matter. it is the polling next fall and on election day they're only going to be concerned about going forward. >> major garrett, what would a second trump presidency look like? >> well, i guess the underlying part of your question, margaret, is would it be a threat to

democracy? that's something president biden's campaign has leaned very much into the last week. the bigger question for the country is do we have a common definition of the future of democracy? and our polling and everyone else's polling, but particularly our polling suggests republicans are now defining democracy and its orientation to trump quite differently than the rest of the country. we talked about this rallying effect, this idea that prosecutors are somehow being too rigorous with former president trump, whatever his underlying conduct was. republicans have been rallying and moving in that direction, consistently, since january 6ent of trump. and what trump talks about retribution and doing something on behalf of himself and not the american democratic experiment, republicans are rallying to that. so in that context, margaret, democracy, constitutional republic, all our traditions and institutions seem to me and feel more threatened if there is a trump re-election. it is a conjecture, but not a

conjecture in the dark, it is a conjecture that aligns perfectly with our polling and everyone else's. >> if this isn't a traditional campaign, what do we need to expect from the candidates in terms of what they're actually going to be able to do to secure the nominatin? >> look for trump to try to assert himself as someone who is comfortable with power and wants a revival. back in 2016, many of his allies told me he stumbled into the presidency. now years later they say he's ready to use executive power in a sweeping way, mass deportations, shake up u.s. foreign policy. this election is shaping up to be a reckoning on american democracy and what a trump return to the white house would say about the united states, but so many of trump's rivals at this point are just not ready to wade into those waters, they're trying to stick to their talking points and we'll see if that's enough for them to catch up. >> gentlemen, thank you for joining us, from iowa, amy walter, thank you for being here with us, helping us make sense of it all. "face the nation" will be back in a minute. stay with us. will be back in a minute. stay with us.

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we're joined by west virginia senator joe manchin. senator, good to have you here. >> good to be with you, margaret. >> in person. you've known joe biden for a very long time, you've known donald trump. what does biden need to do to reverse this trend? >> well, i think basically speaking to the american people on what has been accomplished, what they want to accomplish, mistakes they made and how they're going to correct them. people just want to know the truth. you know, if you make a mistake, say, hey, we made a mistake, we tried something and it didn't work out. i think they moved too far to the left. they need to come back to the center or center left. that's where america is. america is between the center, center left and center right. that's where most of the voters are and that's where it is going to happen. it is not going to happen from extremes. we're playing off the extremes. that's what people are just worn out. enough is enough. >> you said enough for you, you're leaving congress. >> right. i tried everything i could. i'm on my 14th year and i tried everything. >> you haven't tried

everythinging. you know that question. >> it won't be fixed in washington because the business model. and that's what my daughter heather and i put together americans together. >> right. >> the reason for that is trying to get people hope in the middle that they have a voice and a place to go. >> you said you're trying to travel the country, and suss out this moderate group. where do you direct them? do you have the -- >> right now this is not a short game, this is a long game, right? if you're going to get -- it is the character of the person you send to washington, who you're voting from within your state or your district. and if that person has the character to where they put their country before their party, they put their service before themselves, all these types of things and people can detect that. but they have to get that person in the game. right now with the gerrymandering the way it is controlled, 383, 390 district are already cooked. you have the whole thing as far as the primaries, you can change those to more of a majority primary, open primary, if you will. it gives a person who doesn't

have the political back ing or the financing but has the best char character and the best ideas a chance. there are many ways to do it but it has to be pushed from the outside. the business mod until washington is too darn good for the democratic and republican parties. they're getting rewarded for bad behavior and too much money is coming in. >> you're trying to push president biden toward the middle. >> would love to. >> you said he's been pulled so far to the left, to the extreme left as far as the liberal, it makes no sense at all. it is not the person we thought was going to bring the countcri. are you going to vote for him? >> let me make clear, i love my country too much to vote for donald trump. i love my country too much and i think it would be very detrimental to my country. i want to make sure people have a choice and also understand the person with the character and this and that. we have to see what happens on super tuesday. you'll know who's in the game, where we stand. >> by march. you expect -- >> i think -- i think that we'll

find out. just have to find out what's going on. if there is a movement, if there is a movement for third party, i think is what you're asking about, can that movement make a difference? i'm not going to be a spoiler. never have been and never will be. but, people want options or change. so you got to see what comes. by then, i think things will hopefully sort itself out. >> you're not closing the door on running yourself? you get asked this question -- >> i'm aboututoing to do everyt can to help my country. i'll support whoever that i think can best help this country come back to the common sense, sensible middle, which is center left, center right, working together with the majority. you can't govern from extremes. >> you said the president could fix mistakes. what is the mistake you think he's making? >> the border. the border has to be fixed. you know what, if -- >> there are talks in the senate to do just that. >> i agree with you. we were told before christmas, we're going stay here and get this done. all of a sudden, okay, you can

go home now, we're get something language down now, we're writing, putting pen to it, we'll come back and as soon as we come back, that was last week, we'll have something. this is the second week this is the greatest crisis we're facing right now is the border. and it is dangerous. and if congress cannot do its job because tit is just not perfect enough for democrats or republicans or gone too far or not far enough, the president has to step forward and declare an emergency. i don't believe there should be any more paroles at the border until we get a handle on what is going on. it is extremely bad right now. >> we have to take a break. but i want to follow up on what you said, i think you said the president has to take executive action. let's finish that on the other side of this commercial break. stay with us. >> "face the nation" brought to you by charles schwab, own your tomorrow. you by charles schwab. own your tomorrow. (♪♪)

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