welcome back to "face the nation."

and our panel of election law and security experts. david becker is from innovation and research. chris krebs is former head of cybersecurity under the trump administration and sam anna vinograd was a counter-terrorism official at the department of homeland security under the biden administration. god morning to you all. setting the table for a consequential week. chris, we start with you. we're in the 48 hour window that microsoft warns was rife with attempts to hack people's minds. we've seen four fake videos, the fbi and u.s. intelligence have warned are meant to manipulate. yesterday the fbi said there were two out there that are fake. before that we had disclosured that russia was behind a bucks county fake video and targeting voters in georgia, falsely claiming that migrants were voting. how are these tactics that russia is using now compare to

what you saw in 2020 and back in 2016. >> well they've evolved from generating content from st. petersburg. you you had internet operating out of a office building, over time given the improvements in the cia command and our own awareness of the activities and what they're doing, they've started to push the boundaries out. so they're generating content and then laundering it, effectively, through other platforms. like telegram and even now what we're seeing is a significant amount of laundering through x. and then u.s. citizens pick up this information and these videos and then they promote it on their own accounts and their own social media platforms like facebook. so their moving it out and avoiding the u.s. techniques that we have deployed and developed. they're not as good. so a lot the videos that we're

seeing, they're quite amateur. they're trying to flood the zone in trying to distract. >> and confuse and sow distrust of our institutions. sam, u.s. intelligence has been briefing and disclosing. that is part of what they're doing to try to counteract this. we saw early on warnings about iran and what they are doing. the assessment iran favors harris, russia favors trump. what form of influence are we seeing? >> well iran has two main goals in this election cycle. first, two denigrate president trump, they have expressed a -- a preference for vice president harris based upon trump's record in office and their perception of what mr. trump would do if elected. that is objective one. objective two is to sow discord and they view undermining perception about the integrity of our election as a tool. so they're using it to denigrate

mr. trump and sow discord using a.i. generated content focuse on allegations of voter fraud. we should expect iran to continue increasingly sophisticated influence operations related to perceptions of a lack of election integrity. that will last well after polls close, margaret. this is the most attenuated election security related threat environment we have likely seen in history. >> it is not about just changing votes. it is about not trusting our democracy. david, 76 million americans already voted. so can we say the numbers show that the adversaries are failing, or are the election workers you're speaking with really concerned about what is do come? >> it is increased our ability to be resilient against the disinformation. the more people that vote early, they're inoculated themselves against disinformation that might be inclined to be intended

to help them self suppress their vote or confuse them about how to vote. the fact that we've had over 76 million already voted and that is going to increase once all of the mail ballots go in and earl i have voting in about 27 states and d.c. so that is very good. that means the number of people that still need to vote on election day, when disinformation might be very focused on them, trying to get them confused with very little time for them to be resilient against that disinformation. that is going to affect fewer voters. that is a good thing and especially in georgia and north carolina, well over 4 million votes in each state has been cast and millions of votes in the swing states and so far, very few problems despite efforts to create problems perhaps from our adversaries overseas. >> and you would point people to the secretariy of state. >> when you need information, go to injure state election website, that is the secretary of state, sometimes in north

carolina and wisconsin, there is an election board. go to your election website, if you know your locality and if you need help go to vote.gov and that will navigate you there. rerye upon those sources solely for information. >> chris, when you were in government, we did see back in 2018 disclosure by the general at the head of then cyber command and the national security agency say that the government at that time set up a small group to basically knock russia offline, to physically stop them from some of the influence operations. can the u.s. undertake offensive operations like that now? >> absolutely. i do think though that the infrastructure that the adversaries or the russians and irans have put into place may not be where it once was. it has moved. keep in mind this year that the department of justice took offline a disinformation group as doppelganger and they took

their various websites offline and in a way that was timed so they could not rebuild the wewe websites in time for the election. so there have been stepped taken to ensure that the bad guys can't execute their strategies and in the meantime you have organizations like sissa that are doing more on election security than at any other point. so they have a lot of confidence in the resilience of system. >> but what you said about using americans to spread disinformation. people are becoming unwitting agents of a foreign adversary by re-tweeting or reposting the fake videos. >> we have seen that. there was another department of justice announcement that a media outlet based out of tennessee was receiving funding from the russians, from r.t., the tenent group. now to david's earlier point, that is why it is so important that american voters when

they're looking for information abou about election, they go to the relevant local or state official. they know what is going on f. your in georgia, brad raffensperger and gabe sterling are running the tightest ship when it comes to elections in the country right now. they're incredibly effective. they're out there and putting information in the hands of the american people so they know what is happening. so when the haitian voters popped up, they were on it and immediately knocked it down, that is hugely effective in maintaining trust in the process. >> sam, we have seen about physical security as well at locations. they have activated the national guard on stand-by standing with concerns about violence and ub rest. you did have that drop box in vancouver that damaged hundreds of ballots. there was an incendiary device

there. there-r there government plots that they have known about now. >> the affect of time that criminal threats and influence operations by nation states will last related to the election. it is just prudent planning, margaret, in this threat environment for officials at all levels of government, federal, state and local, engage in detailed operational planning. state and local officials are in the lead for the security in their jurisdictions. now in my experience, particularly post january 6, those operational plans must include a full sense of all available law enforcement resources, national guard is last resort. you have local and state resources and as national national guard as well as a clear sense of who to call when so there aren't communication failures. federal officials have invested a lot of money and time in doing exercises, hundreds them with state and local officials sharing intelligence and information trying to share best

practices, but at the end of the day, the state and local officials are in the lead and should have clear operational plans for a range of scenarios that may arise, in particular large scale security incidents that may arise with little or no warning. we learned lessons from january 6 and from my conversations with former colleagues, that operational planning has been underway for years, margaret. >> david, i want to quickly get you to respond to what senator rubio was raising during our interview. he was talking about the charges brought by the secretary, or i mentioned the charged brought by the secretary of state against the individual he highlighted had cast a vote despite not being a citizen. how is it that someone who is not a citizen could register and cast a ballot? how does that even happen? >> we have several protections in place to make sure it is very, very unlikely this is going to happen. we've seen places like ohio which has documented only six cases of noncitizen voting over a decade dating back to 2014.

we have georgia, documenting nine cases since 2008. so it does happen and it is extremely rare and i'm michigan will go through the process of evaluating what went wrong in this one particular instance. it is important to note. this is one case. it was very swiftly dealt with. this individual is going to lose his administration at the university of mifrpg, he's going to be prosecuted and might go to jail and certainly be deported. this is a cautionary tale and it is one of the reasons that we know that this voting is rare and it is not zero but close to zero, but with one vote in 160 million ballots is far out weighed by the risk of deportation and other jail time, et cetera. >> thank you for that. i wanted you to explain the process. because i think explaining how our courts work, how the systems are set up to deal with these things is important. one of the things disclosed in the u.s. intelligence report put

out by the office of the director of national intelligence was that russia is amplifying the claims of noncitizen voting. so that is what happens. >> right. that is what happens and there are plenty of protections in place to make sure this is rare. >> >> thanks for your perspective. we'll keep you on speed dial throughout the week. we'll be right back. but his vision dimmed with age. he had amd. i didn't know it then, but it can progress to ga, an advanced form of the disease. his struggle with vision loss from amd made me want to help you see warning signs of ga, like: hazy or blurred vision, so it's hard to see fine details, colors that appear dull or washed out, or trouble with low light that makes driving at night a real challenge. if you think you have ga, don't wait. treatments are available. ask a retina specialist about fda-approved treatments for ga

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in a really important manner by the strikes by the hurricanes. the bottom line is we have an economy that has been growing robustly, inflation is coming down, and the main challenge for the next administration is not just to maintain what is called economic exceptionalism, because we're outperforming advanced economies but continue to position it for the engines of tome's prosperity and that is absolutely critical. >> well, we know the federal reserve is meeting later in week and may move on interest rates again since inflation is around or close to the 2% target. but for average people, they see housing prices are high and grocery prices are still high. where is the scenario where those prices actually come down? >> yeah and that is what everybody is expecting. but it is not going to happen. look, the good news is interest rates will continue to come down. the good news is inflation,

which is the rate of increase of the cost of living, will come down. but it is very hard to bring down prices. and that is one political problem. is when you tell people inflation is coming down, in their head, they think prices are coming down, not the rate of increase of prices. so it is a misunderstooding, unfortunately. but you have to be careful what you wish for, because if prices come down significantly, we are then in something much worse economically. >> and that is being used on the campaign trail, as you know. i know the stock market is not an indicator of what is happening with the economy. but it is forward-looking. this week, what should we be expecting as a reaction to the outcome of this election? >> so believe it or not, a lot of investors are just on the side line. they see so many possibilities.

be it for the presidential race, be it for congress, or even the extent to which is promised by presidential candidates will become policy. there stands to be a big gap between the two. so quite a few investors have said there is way too much uncertainty, i'm standing on the side line and waiting to see what emerges. >> a gap between what is promised and what is delivered is a diplomatic way of putting campaigning there, mohamed. but neither candidate is even making a gesture toward reducing the debt burden in this country. and in terms of what is being promised, the plans that the vice president has put forward is estimated by the committee for a responsible budget to increase the federal debt by nearly $4 trillion through 2035. donald trump's plans would increase it by nearly $8 trillion. congress, as you suggested there, they could put the brakes

on anything here. but does this continue promise of spending and no promise of reducing it, concern you? >> it does. it does in a big way. look, it was unthinkable that we would have almost 30 months of unemployment at 4% or below and with one fiscal deficit of six to eight percent. kennedy said when the sun is shining you fix the roof and we've created more roofs. our debt to gdp is 120%. both candidates, whether they like it or not, will have to find a way to moderate deficits and debt and critically, margaret, to create operational flexibility in the budget. the budget is becoming more and more rigid which means that it is harder to respond to unanticipated shocks. >> unanticipated shocks. in terms of one of the things

that we have heard from the trump campaign, quite a lot, is this pledge to use tariffs to create income for the government somehow. that is what donald trump suggests using them. do you view tariffs as a regressive tax that will hurt poor people by raising prices for them? or do you view them as somehow, you know, a rising tide that floats all boats? >> so, tariffs are a dangerous tool. they have limited use, but if they are overused, they become counter productive. it is not a good idea to promise the use of tariffs to deliver all sorts eof things. be it a lower deficit, be it domestic producer, be it putting pressure, leveraging influence of other countries. tariffs have a role to play. but not to the extent -- and

similar for the other side. industrial policy and regulation, they both have a role to play. >> right. >> but be careful of overreach. >> right. fair point.% mohamed el-erian, thank you very much, for your analysis. the economy consistently the number one issue for american voters in this election. we'll be back in a moment.

joining us now for a preview of what we will all be looking for on tuesday, is our executive director of surveys, anthony salvanto. this is neck-and-neck. woof been telling us that for weeks now. what is it that the campaigns are focusing on what we should be looking for? >> hey there, margaret. so start with this. here is the map. the states in white are all those razor tight battleground states. but let's get beyond the margin of error for a second and look at the political possibilities and we could show you that in our polling models. start with this, what i think is one of the key dynamics in this race. there are voters who say they did not vote in 2020 and many of them, in fact, about four in ten, say that they definitely

will this time. among them, especially the men among them, are for donald trump. and the trump campaign is trying to turn them out. so, we wondered what happens if he does. and i'll show you. on this map, we're going to run that scenario through our cbs models and if he does turn out a lot of those nonvoters, those men, they boost him, he would do well across the sun belt, arizona, georgia, north carolina and flip pennsylvania and that would be enough to put him over the top and give him the win. that is a hypothetical. but it shows you how one of those campaign doynamics could play out. on the other side, there is the gender gap. we've talked about it a lot. and i'll show you a slide from one of our recent polls that illustrate that. so many more women voting for kamala harris. well, you've seen the harris campaign out there trying to get

women turnout, but also some cross over from republicans and in particular republican women. so we said, what happens if she could get those republican numbers to match closer to what joe biden got in 2020, driven in large part by women and republican women. if i put that scenario into the map here, our models show that she would hold the blue wall states across the upper midwest and keep georgia and flip north carolina and that would give her an electoral college victory. all of this, again, hypothetical. but it puts it in political terms, some of the dynamics that could play out and we'll be watching on election night, margaret. >> and you'll be watching in real time as the data comes in to the desk. what is it that we should be tracking throughout the night? >> so we're going to show you everything as it comes in. and the first thing that i'm going to show you is where the

votes are, because sometimes, and i'll pull up the 2020 map in georgia just as an example, you're going to see red areas that are republican and blue areas that are democratic, but there are more people in some of these place than others. if i take this map and i rotate it. what you'll see in the example of georgia, is the higher bars reflect more votes and there is more voters in atlanta and metro atlanta and democrats need to do well in places like that. really get a lot of turnout there, whereas across rural areas, it is more flat on the the map and not as many votes but republicans very consistently kind of add to their margins there. that is one way we're going to show you that the state is in full. and the other thing i'm going to watch is patterns, shifts from the last election to this one. again, as an example, if i were to show you the shift that happened from 2016 to 2020, in georgia, democrats, joe biden at

the time, got a lot of those counties around metro atlanta shifting blue. the rural areas shifted red and republicans will see if something like that happens again, so it is where the votes come from and how they shift and the last thing very quickly, margaret, i'll remind everybody is patient. if i were to take that same georgia timeline and show you what it looked like at say 9:00 p.m., just after poll closed, a couple of hours, you see so much uncounted votes still in georgia. metro atlanta hadn't counted yet, et cetera. if this pattern comes out, again, on election night, we'll want to say, hold on, let's wait for all of the votes to get counted before we know the winner. margaret. >> patience is a virtue. anthony, thank you. we'll be right back of t the

that's it for us today. thank you all for watching. until next week. for "face the nation," i'm margaret brennan.