from washington, the mclaughlin group. the american original. for over two decades, the sharpest metlife. guarantees for the if in life. issue one, states strike back. >> all of us need to be reminded that the federal government did not create the states, the states created the federal government. [ applause ] >> divided government. with checks and balances and

sovereignty stemming from the people, not the king. that was the genius of the american constitution, the founders design anticipated friction, not only between the branches of the federal government, but also between the states and washington. president obama's healthcare legislation has sparked a battle by the states over the limit of federal power. some are calling this state reaction an uprising. voters in missouri, a state mr. obama carried in 2008 overwelmingly rejected the obama mandate on all residents of the u.s. to purchase health insurance or pay a u.s. government fine. 71% of missouriens voted against this washington law recently. 26 are contesting the constitutionality of the white house cohearsing the purchase of health insurance. in virginia, this month a federal judge refused the obama

administration's motion to toss out a suit brought by virginia's attorney general that says in effect that obama care is unconstitutional. >> virginia's position is that ordering the purchase of health insurance is not regulating economic activity. if this is activity that can be regulated under the commerce clause, then the federal government can reach anything. this is where you get to the massive expansion of federal power. >> also on this legal action, eric holder attorney general represents the obama government. he filed a motion for dismissal of this suit brought by the virginia attorney general. the judge said no to obama, yes to kutchinel. you may proceed with lawsuit ag the basis of nonconstitutionality. >> question, are these examples of normal give and take between washington and the states or are we on the

threshold of a constitutional crisis? pat? >> we are somewhere inbetween, john. there's no doubt the states are really asserting their rights against the federal government, which is now taking 25% of the entire economy. the highest ever in peacetime. it's regulating more and more. there's enormous resistance at the state level. my friend tom woods has written a book called nullification which goes back to the jefferson, madison arguments. on gun laws, a lot of states are saying we will not enforce federal indivisible say we have to violate the rights of our citizens. states rights got a bad name, but now it is on the rights of states as against federal mandates. federal unfunded mandates and a lot more governors, democrats, republicans, and others are saying look, they are imposing too much on the states and the states aught to fight back. >> are you in that category? >> i am very much in that category. >> it's politically inspired.

there's an election in november and i think the right, the republicans have found that there's political reward in pushing this. but i would point out that georgia, texas, louisiana, and south carolina have all stepped up to the bar to get their stimulous funds after a lot of talk that they would not receive it and on the mandate, there is a mandate currently in effect in massachusetts that isn't being challenged constitutionally and barack obama did not run on the mandate when he ran for president. in fact he was opposed to it and howard dean who was governor of vermont, they have health reform there. they don't need the mandate. it doesn't mean the end of obama care and it leaves us with the dilemma of when the guy refuses to buy healthcare insurance shows up at the emergency room, what do you do with him? i think they'll have to have an insurance kiosk in the hospital and sign on the bottom line because you know, they are free

loaders. i thought conservatives wanted to get free loaders off the welfare road. >> you thought the states are spineless and don't have the strength of their own conviction? >> i think their leaders and legislatures came to their senses and realized they could use these government funds when people are hurting in the mist of a recession. >> sounds like they are two- faced to me. >> eleanor's problem about the uninsured is a problem, but it's not a problem the constitution lets the federal government address. that was kim's point. this is people choosing not to buy health insurance and it's illegal to buy private health insurance across state lines. they are calling it interstate commerce. if congress can regulate this, they can regulate anything. this is an assault on states. >> because the federal government is insisting that all citizens buy health insurance or get it, correct? you cannot be without health insurance. that's what the federal government is demanding. >> that's what is

unconstitutional. >> it's confusing to me how the justice didn't object to marijuana commerce in california that had to direct impact on other states. i'm amazed at the position of nullification coming back. suddenly, the latest on the blue and the gray now. this is more than new federal -- i think this is part of a culture war, john. i think this is part of the idea that people in a lot of these states, going against obama, that's a winner for republicans. stand up here against that central government and let people be distracted from the economic crisis these states are suffering right now. >> you think the argument against your position is frithilous? >> which argument? >> the government does not have the authority to command you buy insurance if you don't

want insurance. they are demanding action -- >> there's no resolution to the civil war, what i thought was the resolution. although i'm told -- >> clarence has a point in this. this country is fragmenting. if you take the bishop report on the big sort. if you take the counties of the country, more and more half of them vote by 20% or more for one party or the other. people are moving together not only ethnically, but by values and beliefs. >> you mean the tea party? >> no. i'm talking about -- it's not sectional. >> those voters may be part of the tea party, but they don't know it yet. >> also people on the west are as well. >> it's not north south, it's within states. they are conservative on claves are getting thicker and thicker in america and no conservatives, if a country is breaking down. >> oh come on, pat, that's always been where people gravitate to certain neighborhoods. that doesn't mean the whole

country is di sent desintigrateing. >> everybody else in the country is seeing all the wealth and all the power. there is a giant sucking sound and it's coming from washington, d.c. all the wealth and all the power are coming here. three of the richest counties in this country are commuting distance to washington, d.c. they see the money is coming here. they see the power is coming here and they have more say in their state legislature than they do here in washington, d.c. >> they want their share of the federal funds. >> or they want to be left alone. >> let clarence in. >> what president obama on several occasions has been out there at ribbon cuttings and right there in the audience. right there in the front row are republicans who voted against stimulous, but they are out there ready to be part of the ribbon cutting. that's the reality of life. >> there's hypocrisy involved. >> no doubt about it, clarence. there's no doubt about it also,

john, that this is a very powerful move. the governor of texas said, we are going to think about succession. huge reaction from the tea party folks. a lot of folks are antithe federal government. >> let me in here. >> the states can require motorists to buy insurance. correct? what is the difference between that and the mandate we're talking about? >> you can't make somebody buy insurance on his own car. if he hits somebody else, he has to pay for it. >> people are not compelled to drive. they are not compelled to drive. >> driving is a privilege. >> however, the argument can be made when under served people have to be paid for. >> exit question. okay. that's precisely the exit. you want to read the question? exit question. if this goes to the supreme court, which side of the argument will prevail? the obama position that making

health insurance mandatory for everyone is unconstitutional or the states argument is constitutional, excuse me, or the state's argument that health insurance is unconstitutional? >> 6-3. i think briar will go with scalia. >> really? eleanor. >> it will be a 5-4 decision one way or the other. but healthcare reform will survive even without the mandate if it is overturned in the court. >> how? >> how? because there are lots -- you have financial incentives for people. only the radical constitutionalists here are going to say we aren't going to buy insurance. there's going to be insurance made available through the exchanges that makes sense to people. >> eleanor is wrong because without requiring healthy people to buy insurance, the whole thing falls apart. right on the constitution, but he is going to lose in the supreme court 5-4. >> why? because kennedy. >> eleanor there and with

sotomayor there, is that why? >> kennedy is going to go with the liberals and he is going to lose because the supreme court likes federal power. he generally likes federal power. >> oh. i agree and i think the governors will be quietly relieved because if the court doesn't swing that way, they are going to be stuck with a voter backlash. what people realize, hey you are taking away the healthcare that was directed toward the states here. so i suspect that's what is going to happen. >> i th issue two, republican would be's. ♪

yes, i do. at night hearing, hail to the chief. >> the ranking of this list is from gallop poll data. the host of this program did not have anything to do with the probability ranking of these possible candidates for the republican presidential nomination 2012. question. why do experience credibility and crust worthiness count so much with the gop voters? pat. >> experience, trustworthiness, i would expect they would count with all voters, john. >> this particular year. >> what they want is, they want a contrast to barack obama

who is considered amateur. >> lacks the experience? >> he is considered an amateur, he is messed up. he seems clueless. he has all these weaknesses. this is what gives romney a certain strength. whatever you think of romney, he has been flip-flopping, etcetera. and he was just in massachusetts. he is an extremely competent man who made a half million dollars in business and he knows what he is doing and he's good on the economy. on the other hand, sarah palin has enormous fire, energy, authenticity. >> romney is a mormon. >> it's going to be tough for him in the south. but huckabee is number one right now in iowa. based on the christians out there. >> he remains a mormon. >> he's a mormon. >> mormons exactly, you saw those polls saying muslims hold 58% didn't want a muslim for president. a high number said we wouldn't take a mormon either. >> and a medical condition in this country, you don't think

it bleached out? >> it should bleach out, but it hasn't. >> the recent poll that showed obama being -- a lot of people think he is a muslim. that same poll talked about how now what the jews are considered to be the most trusted religion now. they moved up, muslims have moved down. it's the same kind of way african americans are more accepted now politically than immigrants and illegal immigrants. >> there is also a decline generally speaking in the religiousness of the culture, broadly speaking. religion doesn't count as much anymore. >> it does -- >> yes or no? >> independently denomination totally? >> it still counts for an awful lot. especially if you are a mormon or muslim. >> i think it counts more in the republican primaries. i think for mitt romney was the

speech he delivered about his religion and i think he can get beyond that. i think if the republican party reversed the form and nominates the person whose turn it is who run before, it would be romney and he does know about the economy. but the problem is, what he knows about the economy is how to downsize and fire people. he doesn't know how to create jobs and that's going to be the challenge. >> tim, how does gingrich look to you? >> they are polling well now because they have big names. i would short their stock if i could. >> how about huckabee's -- what did he do? he forgave part of the party -- >> if he gets up near the top of the polls, that ad is going to be running. he doesn't have a strong appeal outside of his base. >> how about giuliani? >> there's a good reason, giuliani lost every primary. he got clobbered there and he is socially and culturally, and

the three marriages and what he did last time, i think giuliani is back. there's an article in a magazine talking about his first two wives and all this stuff which is very bad stuff. >> newt is on his third wife? >> yes. >> the serious candidates, i think, in addition to romney i would minnesota governor tim pawlenty. i would put indiana governor, mitch daniels in that category and put hailey barber frommy. i think those are three people with experience. >> and contacts. >> yeah. >> they know the scene. >> they lack national -- >> charisma. >> which one? you think barbra is ahead of all the others? >> i would say if i were to buy a penny stock, it would be tim pawlenty or mitch daniels. >> pawlenty doesn't think very highly. >> and people don't figure who he was. > i think these guys can start

from scratch. obama started from scratch. >> if pawlenty stepped into iowa and won it somehow, came from behind and won that thing, he would suddenly clip romney. >> why are mike and john on this list? >> on the list because he is a u.s. senator. he's an attractive guy. a congressman and i don't know when the last time a congressman ran for president and got the nomination. >> mitch daniels has a lot of good ideas for government. >> who is he? >> he's the governor of indiana. >> what position did he hold? >> working in the white house. >> what position in the white house? >> officer management and budget. is that important? >> he was the head of the political office. >> is the white house very important? am i going through this question? >> one of the problems is -- >> the most powerful entity in the white house is the omb. >> but if you work for george w. bush who ballooned the deficit, is that a good credential? >> we keep hearing about

daniels in the real circle. >> he's a friend of mine, but he -- >> ratings as governor are in the 70% positive. does that tell you something? >> he's a good governor. >> privatize roads and he's a great ideas. he is a good governor. he is short. >> let's settle the matter. exit question, time for april 2012. you got it? april 2012. who will be the republican presidential nominee? >> palin or romney. >> give me one or the other. >> palin. >> if she wins iowa and wins south carolina, good-bye and good luck. >> she's looking better now? >> she looks good all the time. >> there's a difference between getting a sliver of the electorate excited about you and appealing to 50.1%. >> who is your candidate? >> i would say romney.

>> business background? >> and pawlenty as a possibility. >> because of the economy? was he successful? very. he's a multimillionaire. >> i don't think the republican party is going to go off the cliff with sarah palin. >> a dozen kids? beautiful family. >> five boys. it will be romney because the republicans pick the guy whose turn it is next. >> it's going to be romney because the way the republicans have their rules set up. their winner take all primaries. the democrats do it. that's a big reason why seniority counts with republicans. it is romney's turn. my money is still on him to pull ahead of the pack and the rest will be finding out who will be the front runner four years later. >> i think it's too issue three, a star is born. >> i think the new normal will be when speaker pelosi loses

her gavel. [ cheers ] and the new normal is when harry reid joins the unemployment line. [ cheers] and two years from now president obama will be a one- term president. >> minnesota congresswoman, michele bachmann is on a role, some say. she is the voice of the tea party movement in the u.s. house of representatives. she serves as the tea party corpus chair. bachman's profile has been raised so significantly that some republicans speculate whether a 2012 national destiny is in store for her. maybe the republican nominee for vice president of the united states. bachmann herself has not commented on any such speculations. in any case, the road to the white house may not be a straight shock for the

congresswoman. bachmann's political emphasis in washington and minnesota is against federally funded subsidized programs, but she gained federal agriculture subsidies in connection with the bachmann family farm in wisconsin over a period of five years, which funding ended four years ago. >> question, will this governor subsidy hurt her popularity or will she be the new gop heavy hitter come this november? >> i think she can be a heavy hitter the way palin is being a heavy hitter now. as she tried to run statewide or bigger than that, it could hurt her. >> eleanor. >> i think she is very popular on the far right of the republican party, but i don't think she has national appeal. she said things that are really over the top and really kind of cooky. >> like what? >> well, she suggested that members of congress be investigated for their un- american activities at one point. >> un-american activities?

>> with no -- >> you want to begin there, right? >> with no apparent memory of the mccarthy era and how that damaged the country. she's too far out and she is heading the tea party caucus. >> he coaxed her into that. >> admit it. >> the very fact that pat supports it should warn you. >> these democratic like about her being extreme. privatizing social security. most people my age don't believe we are going to get social security. there is a brand, but i'm sorry, this year a will the of those are popular. >> privatizing -- >> i'm not going to get it. >> happy to be paying into it and not get it, are you? believe me. >> let me get back to bachmann. she is an attractive lady, but she has to do is run statewide and get herself a governor or senate seat before she runs

national. she is a tremendous straw out there in the congressional race. >> bachmann as running mate. we in the media will love it. >> obama is going to dump biden and put hillary in there. >> who is we, john? >> i would think we would agree. >> i don't know if it's going to help obama. >> i wouldn't oppose it, but i don't think it's going to happen. >> let me give you the scenario. the republicans do take over the house. who do you think is going to be the leader of the republicans in the house? >> i think there might be a run against boehner if the republicans take over the house. i don't know who it would be. you have canter. >> it would not be michele bachmann. >> they want a house king, too. paul ryan and also bachmann. >> you have tension and also canter in there and you have someone else.

>> bachmann is realigning the tea party, she can move in with the tea party and take that job over. >> she can't get a majority. >> there will be a struggle. the blunts, the guys who are close to all the lobbyists and the tea party guys. >> these young turks, if they do take over the white house, not the white house, i get too far ahead of this discussion. if they take over the control of the house, they will want to get new faces in there. >> they will not want michele bachmann because the tea party is not going to win in such great numbers that they are going to be a dominant voice on capitol hill. >> i don't agree with that at all. do you? the tea party is bigger than the tea party looks. >> they are bottoming out. they aren't going to win in the general. >> is the tea party bigger than the tea party? >> the tea party is large, but the republicans will decide who gets the speakers and they will not give it to

predictions, pat. >> barack obama succeeded or will succeed in getting our troops down to 50,000 in iraq by the end of august, john. but the 50,000 are not coming out by the end of 2011. my guess is there's going to be a deal cut with the iraqis because i don't think the iraqis can handle it. they know it and we know it. >> eleanor. >> congress will come back after the election in a lame duck session and they will pass the treaty. the treaty with the russians and it will be thanks to the leadership of indiana senator republican, richard lugar. they will overcome the partisan passions and actually get something positive done. >> you know the senate might not go willingly to signature and view the fact that russia is extracting the uranium that has been making it rich and giving it back to iran. >> i think the senate will pass the treaty and go to

president obama for his signature. >> republican gains will be disappointing in november. they will not gain either chamber. they may not get a gain of 36. i think they'll shoot themselves in the foot. the fact is the tea party guys whom i love, a lot of them are inexperienced and the democrats will chalk it up as a win that they hang on to both chambers. >> very sobering. >> i think the economy will show an improvement in october, but it will be too late. >> i predict michele bachmann will be the republican vice presidential candidate in 2012. don't forget to join if. for such a small word it packs a wallop. if i live to a hundred. if social security isn't enough.

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