>> rose: welcome t our program. we begin this eveningng with noi rapace. she is the actress who plays liz beth in the stieg larsson novels which have now been made into three films. >> when she is such a beautiful survivor. i think, you know, her fight for li is so strong and she has gone through so many terrible things and people have done so many things to her butshe doesn't see herself as a viim. she doesn't feel pity for herself. she always finds a way to stand up and to decide what she wan to do and what kind oflife she wants to live and she does it and she never gives up and i thk that's beauty for m >> rose: w connue our look at turkey with its foreign trade minister zafer caayan. >> ( translated ): turkey is already econically integrated with eure and now many countries in the european union

have caused the european union toet into trouble with monetary issues. t turkey in this global crisis is the only country thatidn't intervene in the banking system. when welookt t government anbudget deficit, they' already abe t criteria of the european union. so as saidore, turkey among the 27 member states of the european union is at a better position. >> rose: weonclude this eveninwith michaeandelbaum, a profrsoat joh hkins university who wrien a n book about america called "the frugal superpower." >> sooner or later there is going to be a consensus that we've got to deal with this debt because we won't be ae to borrow our way out of it and kick the can down the road. and when that happens, i believe everything in politics will change including foreign policy. >> rose: the actress who plays lisbeth, turkey's economic goals and nversation about amica and its enomic issues when we continue. maybe u want school kids

to have more expore to the arts. maybe you want to provide meals for the needy. or maybe you want to help when the unexpecd happens. whatever you wanto do, meers project from american expres can help y tak the first step vote, volunteer, or donate for the causes you believe in at membersproject.com. take charge of making a difference.

>> rose: nmi rapace is here. most of the world, however, she isnown simply as the girl with the dragon tattoo. she star as lisbh saldarr the millennium book trilogy. here's a look at those films.

>> rose: the third and final fi in the trilogy, "the girl who kicked the hornets' nest," opens in select u.s. theaters on october 29. i am pleased, very pleased, to have noomi rapace at this table for the first time. welcome. >> thank you so much. >> rose: i say this enthusiasm and express this enthusiasm because... both because we know the novels wenow the character and then com along seone, you who seems to have impacted it in a way.....what was it

about her at you say "i kno her. >> well, she is such a beautiful surviv. i think, you know,er fht for lifeis so strong and you know, she ha gone through so many terrle things and supreme done so many things to her but sll she doesn't see herse as a victim. she doesn't... you know, she doest feel pity forerself. she always finds a way to stand up and to decide what she wants to do and what kind of life she wants to live and she does it. and she ner gives upnd think that's...that beauty for me. rose: and that i the end because she's such a hero character in those dimensions. >>eah. >> rose: is why the books are so successful. so many people look at her and see that. >> yeah, i think so. and i think that, you know, she's an underdog. she's lonely, you know. she doesn't have anyone but still she managed to turner anger into strength in a way.

and i think, you know, for example, we have this very specific situation, the rape ene. >> rose: right. >> and for me that was so important that we had those scenes in the film because it tells so much about her. it's such an important puzzle piece to understand her. somebody does this horrie thing to r and the she goes home she cures a way, she makes a decision, she goes back and she figsack. and that's... i think that ople love tha >> rose: she is also... there's beauty, there is toughness. shs alsoer own person i a remarkable way. the way she looks, the way she dresses, the sense of her sexuity. >> yeah. >> rose: it's so clearly "this is who amnd i lik who i am." >> and she refused to playhe rules that everybodyxpects her to do. and that's liberating in a way.

>> rose: and what is it that driveser? because she's met souch. >> ah. i ink tt sh desperately wants to live, to befree. d she has never... you know, since she was, like, 11,2 years old, the whole swedish society has tued herown,

they have put hernto a mental hospital. >> rose: she became a pawn in their own struggles and s they. >> yeah. and so think that's just some thingshat sh decided when she was lying there, you know, tied up, okay i want to li. i want to be my own. i nt t behe person i wt to be. i'm not gonna let you decide what kind of destiny i'm gng wards. >> rose: and what doou think she represents to women? >> i think tt it's time...ou know i tnk that mt women in the world have been longing for somebody like her,omebody who actually doesn't accept... she doesn't take any, you know? to be honest. >> that's the word i would use. she doesn't take any crap from nib. >> i want to live my life. i want to be the one i am. i'm not going to be try to be something ni, something swt that suits you. i'm not going to satisfy you, i'm my own. >> rose: and what is th toll of what has happened to her?

has she lost the capacity to love? >> i think that sheas deep scars in her soul in a way and her heart is really wounded. but i ink she canove. think she actually loves mikail. >> ros if you look at the way you looked at him, y know. yeah. >>ose: but sheoesn't want to let herself... >> nev. that's the most dangerous thing that could evehappen to her. she can be raped, e can be be up, peopl can do all thgs ther, all terrible thingsut when it comes to love, tt's what probably can kill her. >> rose: in the beginni you di't think you had a good chance of getting this role. >> no. >> rose: because? >> becau i thought they were gointo judge me r being t feminine, too girly, too... because sometimes people see you... you know, i'm an actress, i can change into anying. i can fat. i can be blond. i can bekinn i can shave my head. you know, it's like i can transform into anything. i know this, but it's not so

often people can see that. >> rose: you did an interesting thing. tell me if i have this thing right. you said "i'm not coming to do an audition, i'm coming to do a part." >> yeah. >> rose: "so i'll sho you wh i'm about. not because i'll do some audition." >> i just wanted to work immediately. i don't like auditions. thin it' rlly diffict to come and try to convince people to pick me, love me. so my way is jus to sttthe work today and i bought clothes from my husband and i today the director when i met him all the things i wanted to do and i want go all the way. i want to do my stunts, i want to change my body, i want to do the piercings, i want to take license for motorcle. i want to do everything. i want to go there. >> rose: and you did that? >> yes. >> rose: everything? >> not the tattoo. >> rose: a famous tattoo. >> yeah. so what was difficult about the role? >> to find a balanceetween...

you know, wh you read the boo stieg larss can write like t pages about what'soing on inside of her,hat she's thi, wh she's feeling and then... you know, sh doesn sho anything. she has stone face. but that's not possible for me to do. so i had to find it was like i had to navige in her universe and let things out. you know, let some kind of keys and some kind of puzzle pieces out to the audience and to mikail and to the director but still be true and honest and still be in her and be protecting her because she's so strong. she's not playing the role that everybody else does so it was... sometimes hard because the director said "you know, come on give me something. give me a little bitore." d i'd say "no, i can't do that." >> rose: you in fact one time said she didn't enjoy being a woman because of what beg womahad brought on top of her >> yeah. exactly. and i also think she sees

heelf... she has a very double relationship to herself. i think in one way she sees herself li an ien, you kw. like i'm somethi fr outer space, i don't f io thi world,'m aisfit. i will never be able too and to be what you wt me to be. but in the same way she says, you know, okay but i'm fine being an alien. >>ose: but y ink she loves mikail? yes. >> rose: yet at the same ti she so loves women. >> yes. >> rose: so ere is that? what's her sexuality i think she just doesn't want to define it. it's very much... i think she's very impulsive. so today i want to be with a woman. and that's fine. and tomorrow i want to be with a man and that's also fine and that's me. i don't think she sees herself like a homosexual or bisexual. she's just very spontaneous and she doesn't judge herself or anybodelsentil they do

something wrong. >> rose: lors son died before the books were published and certainly beforehe movies were made. if you could talk to him what would be the conversation? >> are you okay with the way i... because whei'm working... >> ro: i my elizabh your elizabh? >> exactly because when i'm working i have to give the character my life. i ve to tralate things for into her and give hery soul. so i think that i would like to ask him wherever he like are you okay with it? i did everythg icould a hope 's kind of the same area as you would shoot for. >> rose: go-- and you suggested this-- to go as deep as youid into this charter you had to go deep inside of yourself, to find your own pain, your own isolation. >> thas t only w it' possle for me to work. and i always have to use myself. and do it real persal.

not privatbut personal. and di up things and.. >> rose: and feel them again? >> yh. >> rose:o i yore goin to reflect pa you have to find yo own pain? >> absutely. >> rose: and what toll doeshat take or that just an actor's craft? >> well, that's sometimes... it's pretty interesting becse i always try to prepare myself as much as i can before and when we actually started to shoot the film, i don't want to use my brain. i don't want t analyze mysel i don't want to see myself from the outside. i don't want to judge it or, you know, i never go to the monitor and look at myself and say "oh, i want another take because i didn't look soood." i want to be inside of it as much as possible and then it's... i dot reall kw. sometimes when i'm comingome and i' in the cardone for the day i can feel very unhappy o rk indeor aot othin can come up but i can't really connect it to what i've done because it's like i'mn it.

and when i'm done with the whole film i can look ck andsay h,hat's why i felt so bad. at's why i was so angry o so happy." so it' le me anhe arter me together in a wa >> re: d this character because it is the character it is change you? >> i thi she actual made me ait braver. that it's okay that everybody doesn't love you immediately an directly. it's okay be one sometimes. and if it's your time, yo will gethere. >> rose: you had howany different directors? >> two. >> rose: did they see the character different or once you established hit in the beginning... >> yeah, i did. and the second one, dane hill, he came in and he prettyuch let me do what i was doing. >> rose: you had the character. you made the character. was it mostly you that understo theharacter? i me more so than the original director who's been at the table? >> yes. i think so. if you ask me.

ah. because i had... you know, i said to him if you trust me, i know. d mo of the time he came to mend sd "cae do..." and i said "i know. i know what you mean." and then i did another take and he said. soe didn't really talk so much. >> rose: where do you think larsson was coming from with this character? just being a good novelist or somewhere else? >> i actuallyhink lisbeth is pretty much stieg larsson. >> rose: that's what they say. >> because ihinkhe had a rd time sometimesnd hwas working against..i think he s very political, he wanted to clang things in our society but he had a hard time. was not so popar, you know? so i think he etty mh saw mself in lisbe. i think michael is probably the journaliste waed to be maybe. you know, all the women loves him and he's real handsome and all at. and, you know, attrtive and lisbeth is the otd thg, t fighr, the uerdog.

and i think that he pretty much felt like an underdog. >> rose: would you have done anything different now? >> oh,'m very self-critical. i always see things that victim done i anotheray or could have done tter. that's pretty much my way of pushing myself to always do better a be braver and so i'm never really satisfied. i can always find something that oh, maybe i should have done this scenen th wa or nex time shod rublin to do... and so on. when i see... i know i did everything i could so i'm fine with it and i could let it go and i feel... i'm kind of peace with the whole work and everything i did but i can always see things that i can do better. >> rose: it has propelled u into anoth pla in termsf the iginaon of future directors. >> yea >> rose: giv the.. they kno who you are. th know the ality of work that you can do. but in the end also there's a

little bit of aownide the that such a powerful image. >>eah. th'srue. but i think that my work and the way work... >>ose:ow weren't bor yesterday. this was not the first time you've acted. >> didy first feare film when i was like, 19, and i've do a lot of t.v. and theater and i... so i've bn i there foa while. and i know... i worked... you know, i do the same work every time and it's not like lisbeth was my first big... it was the biggest, of course, but i've done so much before. so for me it's like i have a lot of faith in acting and work and en y meet an artist, when you meet a director, when you start to talk, it's like you pretty quickly fee like, okay, do we nt to go the same direction? what kind of movies do you want to make? and can we share some kind of vision? and then it's like... you forget about all the things you've done

before. >> rose: n theremaking an americanized version of this by a very good producer. how do you feel outhat? >> prey good. you know i think... i'm... i think that davi finch is a great director. i'm a huge fan of his work and i think is quite interesting to see what they do. for me i was so sure that i was done with her. i did erything i could and long before it was even t that th were gog do aremake en it was only a lot of lieu rtars about the fourth book an erybody asked... >>os still is. yeah >> yeah, there sti is andthey asked could i consi doing a four film and i said no. >> rose: i'm doneithhis. is was it. i'm greful for everything... >> yeah and i wan to go on. i wa to new thing i want to look into the future. i never want to repeat myself so for me it was... it's... this is it. i'm done. move on. so i think it's quite intesting to see wha ty do

and what... i think probably they will do something completely different. >> rose: is one of the films your favorite? is "the girl with the dragon tattoo"... the first? >> yeah. >> rose: that because it was first? because that's where yo defineder? that's wre y made her? >> maybe, yeah. because i was... it was in that movie that all the puzzle pieces were put together and i actually had prepared for seven months bere t shootings. you know, i did so much prepatioand was ready and then i just jumped in and i... it was like i was some kind of ientist trng t find her and i didnd i ft likeoh, she's here, i have her. so after i think first film was probably the strongt.es >> rose: there s there amoment en you knew you had und her? was it comi together the whole stre of things tha somew one day... >> yeah, i ink that actually week before wetarted to shoot

the first film i remember that i saw myself... i wokup the morning and i saw myself in th mirror and i h all those piercings and i looked so. my son asked me "why do you want to look like a teenage boy with all those things in n you?" >> rose: (laug) >> i said to him "because it's cool, because it looks good." and i said whoa, whoa, i don't think that. that'sot noomi's opinion. but then i felt like o.k., she's here. >> rose: and have you been able to show him any of it? viouy yocan'tet himee e film. >> no. >> rose: any scenes from it or anything that... this is what mommy was doing? >> he was with me a couple of times. >> rose: on e set? >> on the set. and he was with me when i did the mohawk because i didn't nt to come home and jtcare him. so h kws and he... but, no, he hasn't seen anything. i don't want to. maybe later when he's like...

's seven years old and maybe when he's arown up and maybe but... >> rose: thank you for coming. >> thank you. >> rose: a pleasure. >> rose: turkey has emerged as a political and economic force in the middle east and beyond. it's o of the world's fast economies, it's seeking new markets in africa and russia and syria and iraq and iran. earlier this month, turkey d chincommted to increasing bilateral tradeo $100 billion by 2020. joining me now is zaf caglayan. he's tury'sforeign tra minister. he'seen whingnor talks on u.s./turkish commercial ties. i'm pleased to have him here at this table for the first time. welcome minister. >> ( translated ): thank you very much. thank you. >> what do you hope to accomplish in washington? >> ( translated ): okay. first ofll, it is important to develop mutual trade. turkey has many importt fure

ingeopolitic, geopolitical conditions, it has a young labor and it's very close aw care yashgs europe and also other places. so it makes turkey very important. turkey is cated in the etern part ofhesiand the western part of eupe and just uer russia and aboutfrica. so iis a regio where great engy resources are passing through. so when we're contacting wh our american friends, first of a tell tm that there are great investments in turkey. today the ameran companies investing re i tury, first of all ung turkey as a hub will reach them out to africa, asian markets, caucasian markets by ung the opportunities at have been offered by turkey. so what we want is turkey in that frameworkor instae ... for th american markets to open up or in turke but we hava saying in turkey, to stick the needle in.

first of all, i am... so with turkey first of all where we able to promote ourselves good? i mean our products good to the s.? before i came here, i had... been to six states, new york, texas,calirnia, georgia. as you know, these states are making the 60% of total import of the u.s. antwo months ago i had visited those states one by one and i had meets with the businessmen ere and i talk abt which produc we can sell tohe u.s. >> rose: there's a question about how much curty wants to be part of the european union. help us understand whether the grt desire f rkeyto in the eupeannion is still there and what do you see as the prospect. >> translated ): okay. let me reitete.

turkey is in the eastern part of europe. anturkey is a very interesting locati, a part of it is located in asia and part of it is located in europe. d turke ang the islamic countries is a count in the best modern way and with the fr market and democracy. today more than 60% of our export is down to europe already and we are exporting industrial products to europe. today in our government between 2003 and 2010 we had $85 billion to turkey and 75% of it is originated from europe. consider the aging population of europe that ey cannot proce anyme, that makes turkey the closest of the center to europe. so in this respect when turkey becomes a membero the european union itill not be a load to europe but bear the load of it, there are 450,000 university

students graduating every year so we're determined and still determined and we have the desire but turkey is making very importt rerms, democtic reform social reforms and economic reforms. in many are... >> re: so... >> ...we are abidingy the criteria already. >> rose: you're suggesting yo can meet any criteria that other nations have met to join the euroannion? rkey is prered to meet the stdards of the european union? >> ( translad ): yes let meut ithis way now there are 33 chapters open for turkey. a majority of these chapters have already been met by turkey but dutosome polital reasons, some internal conrns of some countries, e are embargos imposed on turkey. that's why some chapters unfortunately are not open, pecially from germany. they have serious pressures on

them. so one of the major issues that i brought in front of us is the cyprusssue. and eyprus issue, as kofi annan, the former secretary general of the united nations, offered that plan. and we took it to referendum in the islands, the greeks and cypriots took it to the referendum. turkey has said y to the referendum but greek cypriots said no. but due to politica reaso t greek cyiotsecam the meer theuropn unn and due to this turkey unfairly... due to cyprus issue is subject to some blockagey some countries. now, from spain, portul, greece, many other countries, turkey's at a better position and turkey is already economically inteated with europe and now many countries in the european union have caused the europeannion to get int

trouble due tomonetary issues. but turkey in this global crisis is thenlyntoury tha didn' inteene in the banking system. they're already above the criteria of the european union so as i said before turkey among the 27 member states of the european union is at a better position. >> rose: is turkey beginning to look more east than west? >> ( translated ): okay. let me put this this way. this is someing that is frequently asked so i would like to thank you once again for giving me the opportunity becausanswing ts qstio very important r me. there are 224 customs gionin the world and we export 22 custom regions outof this number. more than 20,000 products.

i came to the u. three times in the last three months, and then i will go to canada and then i will go to hong kong, chin south korea and the lt we i w inafri then i will goo europe, georgia. these countries are the countries that i will visit. sohe axis of t world has shifted. ase kw, a new report was publisd anthat report coirms that pmarily the u.s. sev developed countries rightow their share of the world economy is decreasing day by day. gradually decreasing. the united states, japan, germany, u.k., france. now their share in the world trade is decreasing. and after 2015 it will decrease further. so logistic advantages, turkeys are using these advantages and

makingrade with ery country in the wor. about india and iraq, one thing i would like to say, the's been a survey tt shows tt .. i'm talking about 2009, 23% of the total world is being exercid the tritorial statess. so 23%. now, of course, turkey, the easiest way to sell products and the center for turkey our other neighbors and ile turkeis impring i tde regulations, thatncludes caw care ya, africa, europe, asia, united states, we embrace them all. we're openg embassies, consules and traded a visesorys, we're alsoincreasing the number of traded a visesorys from 116 to152. so turkey is embracing the whole world so turkey is expanding its ax and it's trying to make trade th each and every part of the world. >> rose: what is the intent of your trade with iran and what

does it include? >> ( translated ): let me very clearly state that iran is our neighbor and will be our neighbor throughout the history and in the future and total trade volume with iran is $11 billion and in the coming five years we would like to increase it to $30 billion. we are making efforts far and i n th framework w so would ke t incrse o trade at least to $40, $50 billion with the u.s. wee al working on that as well so whi we're in that, now iran last year had an import of $66 billion. this is ucial. this is ccial. $2 billion from turkey, import from turkey, and the remaining $64 billion fr china, europe, and other countries. the import of ir from turkey is a very small figure. however, i would like to iterate that, for exame, china, $7 or $8 billion from

china and the remaining from europe and the other countries in the world. toda eac and every country in the worl in o dealings with trade are sellingoodso ira so of them are directly selling goods toran d some othe are selling goods to iran why some other coues or other companies. >> re: prime minister erdogan has said to me many times that his great ambition is for turkey to be a bridge to theslamic worldnd t iran. is it possible? can you do it? whatan you deliver? >> ( translated ): i would like to give yo a emple. the islamic organization is in a conference organization. there are seven member states of thisrganization. so their share from the world trade is 1 total.

so it is 1.2 trillion dolrs. so so thi $1.2 trillion by 57 countriesurkey is a direct country with a 10% share. turkey in terms of foreign trade among the islamic conference organizatis members is one of the countri that have the largest volume. and i would like to oe again verylearly reiteratehat. turkeyith ery country in the rld,very blon t world is ting to integrate and also we had a stratic cooperation conference with libya, syria, greece and italy, russia. with all of these countries we have high level strategic corporation council ery year they get together and we as ten minutes from countries talk about the mutual issues and in trade related issues and everything and turkey with its

democracy with its window open to the world and those... as a country whi has many important features and structures is the best example country in the islamic wod which enjs secularty and democracy in and everything in one place. >> re: my friends who go to rkey and comeack-- tom friedman included-- make the point that there is less rpect for press independence than they would like to see. and secondly they look at the rhetoric against israel an they see it as an indication for rkey tourry favor with wh iran and otherorces. first, press freedom. >> translated ): okay.

let very clearly statehat i am also trying to answer your questis with all my sin tearty and we're very sincere about that. about press freedom, in every countrthe press has had certain attitus d behiors. in tkey there's a serious structure of media. all the regional media, newspapers. so i would like to very clearly state that as a former businessman... by the way, i also worked as the chamber of commerce of industrial. i am coming from the civil society. so there is noestrictions on media, on press. so the press, which ever it wants, can write very clearly >> rose: so anyone in turkey can criticize the prime minister without fear of challenge? >> ( translated ): okay. i wish you would read the newspapers and t.v.s. for inance, there are some... evenn the south,n t south,

for stan, very clearl blisd and they are vy comfortable aut saying all this. turkey is very open about that. turkey at least exined the press anwhen you dohat you will very clrly see that for example even about family members i mean there might be in some for instance. and also many of them... there are also some wrong allegations which do not reflect the truth, for instance, the prime minister. inany even that i saw that i was involved en the media is publishing, somimes it'sistoed. totay distorted. we seehat. the press is free as much as it can. open any newspaper, open... turn on any t.v., everyone is saying what they can say very comfortably. so about israel and iran with respect to that question, let me put it thiway. turkey with israeli people, with jewish people, has no problem whatsoever.

500 years ago we opene the doors in the ottoman period to jewish brothers when theywere exil from sin. so we shared our bread, we shared our beds with our jewish brothers and sisters and many jewish brothers and sisters in turkey are chairing the many important organitions in turk. the problem with this sr. the israeli government, the ungotiable situation an.. >> so... but won't have any problem with the isrli pple and there are thousands of jewish people living happily just like... >> rose: but that's not the point. you have a problem with the israeli government. >> of course, e problem is that israeli governments fortunatel abo the solution of paleste, abo t humatarian vice ey are

following attitudes which is not negotiable and it takes the israeli government, what happened was in international waters soithout physical contact withhem in international waters and even in the coalition structure of israeli government there is a problem. the industry and the ministry of commerce, what they say and the prime minister say are confliing th each other. let me say it again, turkey has no problem whatsoever with israel and wit our iael brothers and sisters and will never have because we shared this with our brothers and sisters about iran. iran is alsoery iorta. iran is our neighbor. and i also wou like to first of all have you think about our relations with iran coiderg your relations wit your neighbors, mexo and canada. we are couries side by side,

're sharing our borders. in iran, for instance, think about an problem which might happen. turkey will be the one that will aected by it e mt. because the. forxample, there wi be something happening just nt to th, then we cannot sit here comfortably and p.m. has assum a great rol here, very importantole. turk is member of t united nations security council and always gd allies with nato and the united nationss so that the role that the prime minister has achieved here to prevent nuclear energy to be used for non-peaceful purposes. if there is something, he said, let' control and and let's bring the international to awe tamm i can energy agency and turkey is having a mediating role here.

let me once... l me once again state that. he has no intention to advocate iran and will never have that intention. turkey will never have tha inteion. however turkey will very naturay be affecd by... direct affected proems which can happen in the next door. so that's why turkey is making efforts here. this is really very impornt for us. >> rose: tnk you for coming. it's pleasure to see yo. >> rose: michael mandelbaum is he, he's a well knownpolicy expert, a professor at johns hopkins iversity. he written a serieof books about america's changing role in e world. e latest is called "the frul superper: america's global leadership? a cash-strapped era." i'm pleased to have him back in this era. welcome. >> thank you, delighted to be with you. >> what's our future? >> well, our future is a cash-strapped future. the government's obligations are going to skyroet as the baby

boom generation-- that is americans born between 1946 and 1964-- begins to rete. the cos of socia security and medicare will go through the roof. we won't be able to borrow all the money we need to pay the benefits that we'd promised so taxes are going to go up and benefits are going to go down despite politicians' omise thato such thing will happen. and that will affect all of our politics including foreign policy and itsmpact on foreign policy is the subject of the frugal superpower. >> the president in a speech at west point sd noation at's ever lost itseconomic vitality has maintained its position of power in the world. >> well, the president is right and i think he's aware of this problem but at his west point speech-- whichas devoted to afghanistan-- he escalated in afghanistan altughe also set a adline. soe'reind caught in a trap of our own making. 've t a of these

ligations, well, too expensive ones in particular in afghanistan and aq that we feel we haveo fulfill and that draining away from t country as a whole. >>os so we shoul't b there becae we can afford it? >> my own vie is tt it was a mistakto escalate in afanistan. that's an arguable proposition proposition. but i think over the long run we won't be doing more afghanistans or iraqs or bosnias, somalis and haitis because we can't afford it and therefore the public won't permit it. >> rose: therefore we will lose our leadership boggs in the world? >> i don't thi we'll lose our leadership position in the world there's no oth plauble leader. the chinese aren't going to replace us, the europeans aren't going to replace us. as the global leader, we supply a good deal o the global conference nantz the world gets and this means not that somebody else wilsupply it buthere will be lessof it to go ound. >> the cnese won't supply it because they don't want to play that role in the near future?

>> they don't want to play that role. they're no capable o playing that re anfor the foreseeable future the priority and focus of any conceivable chese governnt wl be ward. it will be on the hundredsof millns of poor peop they're going to have for the foreeable future. i see the cnese becoming stronger in their region but not taking up any global leadership role. >> rose: lee kwan yue, well known for his wisdom about the world, when i said what doou worry about with respect to the united states? he said i and the rest of the world that i know worries about you... t inabily of the united states to deed with thi long tm dt >> we have not shown any capacity to deal effectively with our debt but sner later the world and global markets will force us to deal it with. i don't know how this is going to happen. i don't know when but sooner or later there is going to be a consensus that we've got to deal with this debt because we won't be able borrow our way out of it and kick the can down the

road and when that ppens i believe everything in politics will change, including foreign policy. so i thi he's quite right. there are many wise people in this country who understand this problem but for whateve reason we as a nation have not been able to muster the political will to deal with it effectively. >> rose: okay, so the president calls you up tomorrow and sa "come to the oval office, i read ur book, know the reality that you speak of. tell me what you think i ought do beginning today. three this, dra down o involvement infghastan and ultimaly iraq. >> and he says befor you start that direction, ofessor mandelbaum, let me remind you that afghanistan is on the bord of kistan, if afghanistan becomea henor al qaeda o any other groups an it destabilizes paktan we're in a very bad ple. >> tre is a real down sideto withdrawing from afanistan but i don't think afghastan is

importanenough in th greer scheme of things to deve the resources to it. >> rose: even if it destabilizes a change in afghanistan, the taliban leadership destabilizes pakistan? >> i don't think we have the resources to stabilize pakistan i would cut back our commitments there i would recognize that our priorities are keeping some sort of litary prence eure and the far east and, most importantly of all, deterring iran in its bid for hegemony in the ddle east. and third-- and this is the one prescription in "the frugal superpower" i would raise the soli tax touropn a japase lels. i think noingle measure could do more to enhance our standing in the world and protectur interests. now it's also e case that as far as know no elected official in the united states at any level has ever endorsed that kindf gasoline tax. >> rose: it's not necessarily the y to electoral success. >> it'so fa the sure fire routto ector failure. but that notwithstanding it is

the most important thing we could do for ourselves because our chief adversaries in the world, the people w givus the mo trouble allake trouble with the renues they get from exporting oil so if we have a higher gasine tax we'l consume less, wll consve more, we're divorce phi and our aersaries will be weaker. rose: you've been having to dinnersith your fend tomriedman. >> i glad to say tom ages with me and he's nothe only rson. the wisdom of a gase tax is widely recognized just as e necessity do something about our... >> rose: but if i were the president i'd say the middle-class has enough burden as it is right now and there's unemployment at 9.5% and you want know impose a higher gasoline tax of which will be bornprimily by the mile-css and therefore we'll look at an economic situation that i can't solve already. >> a downturn is not a good time

to raise trackss, it's true. but weould announce aasoline tax to go into effect as the economy recovers as i say, at wouldot only weak our adversaries by weakening the flow of revenues them but it would demonstrate something that as you mentioned, lee kwan yue and others worry about and that is the american capacity for collective action fothe purpose o global leadership. what about the y the chinese... notwithstandi they do not want to exercise the global leadership right now d theyave theirwn problems home but t fac ishat they are around t worldaking contras wiations and building up their own energy base. does that give theman economic relationship and a power base that could work to ourriment inhe long run? >> it could t i don' see it ppening. they are interested in purely ecomicssues. for anotr, the more esent theyrethe more they do, the more the countri where they're doing business. although they depend on them,

they also resent them. they're getting the kind of reaction that we got. moreover, i don't see the chinese building up the kind of global military force necessary to carry out the global security tasks that we do. nor do i see them taking responsibility for the overall international structure. in fact, they are able to do business. they are able to trade. they're able to get investment and buy raw materials around the world because the internationaeconic framewo that we guarantee. they, too, depend on us. and there's nothg the do with the treasuries they hd, with the security they hold. >> there's no doubt they have levege on us because of all the treasuryilling that they hold. they are ieffect our banke and it very hard to get into an argent and win that argumentith youranker. on the other hd, it'sind of mutua aured destruction siation because if they tryto dump their dollars, the value of the dollar that they hol wl simply go down. thin it's in both e

american and chinese interest to reduce american indebtedness to china and that involves doing something about our budget defici which brings us back to entitlements. >> rose: is our subject here the inevitable decline ofamerica? i bievehe united states isoing toecline somewhat. bu i'm very careul s in "the grew gal superpower" we are not going to be great britain after world war ii. we're not going to fall that far. we're still going to have the most robustility in the world. the world will still depend on us. but we're going to do less, i believe. >> rose: do we need the mitary weave? >> we're going to be cutting back on it whether we need it or not because i think the public will demand that, too. when the american tax peyser getting fewer benefits and paying higher taxes he and s are going to be rectanto support r dense establishmt in the style to which it's become accustomed. so i foresee a protracted strugglever e size of the defensbudget durg the course of which those who want to

reduce it will gain the upper hand. and i believe secretary gates anticipa this is andhat's yhe's preemptively announced some reductions to get ahead of the crowd. >> is this the bgest chaenge foamera today period? >> well, it' debt and therefore it's impact on its relationship arou the world. >>t's certainly the biggest foign picy challenge. adral mullen the chairman of the joint chiefs of staff haass given several speeches saying thatur greatest natnal security cllenge is our cit d i believe tt that true because unls and untiwedeal with it, it will weaken us acrs the ard and it is true thattheoundation of america's strenh--nd let me emphasize that i believe that a strong america is vital not just for the united states but for the who world, evebody has an interest in a strong america and a strong america has to rest on a healthy, vibrant and growing economy. >> rose: and most of the world is looking to us for leadership? >> most of the world is looking to us for leadership, even those countries that criticize one or

anothe of our policies. because th knowthere's no cbs tut snoochlt. >> rose: what would you recommend we do about iran? >> i do believe that iran is our moerio challenge. i believe that in... >> rose: second to the dt? >> well, second to the debt. the most serious extnal challenge and at e worst our economic situation. the less will be the willingness of the american public to coront iran actively it is vital for us to prevent iran from fulfilling its ambitions dominate the persian gulf in the middle east and i believthat an iranian nuclear weapon will make it that much more difficult to deter and contain iran. >> can they dominate the region because of theirelationshi today even though they don't have a nuclear weapon? >> they're doing alas, better than we would shthey did. >> they are clrly a regional por, and who is it in the gulf th challenges them?

>> that's the problem. there's no substitu for the united stas because none of the surrounding countrs th has political cohesion of the military force to check iran and so it all comes back to us. that's not true in east area, incidentally. north korea is also a very serious problem but it's surrounded by serious self-reliant countries. that's not true of iran. there's a vacuum there an alas there's nobody but the united states to fill it. >> rose: so you believe sanctions will work? >> i hope they'work t i agree with those who say you can't take the military option off the table. i hopetdoesn't come to that if you ask me whether i believe that as a last resort we should attack the iranian nuclear weapons facility. my answer is i'm not sure but i wouldn't rule it out. >> rose: anything in history that makess believe sanions wi work? >> well, the record of sanctions is not a distinguished one, 's true. they have some effect on the aptheiregi in afric >> alws the example everybody

uses. >> and there were lots of other things going on as well. i think that in order for sanctions to have a chancehey have to be stiffer than they are now. it's been suggested that because iran-- although it exports oil-- imposefin oil that an embao on importing refined oil imported gasine in might work. something that stiff mightave a chance bute can't be sure. rose: yreou familiar wit what mr. ly is doing at the easuep dartment? >> i amnd ithink tt'sery useful. he. ros he's trying to t the prive sector t squee as well. >> y, he is and ihink we want to exist all peaceful options and that's part of that policy. >> rose: foreign minister of russia here said to me in amica has reset the russian relationship and we're happy with it. there'much better than it's been. is an there a oba foign policyhat u ca define for me? >> toward russia, you mean?

>> no, towards russia, chi, eupe? afternn thworl >> well, this foreign policy, like all foreign licies, is a work in progress. i think at this admistration should come... came into office thinking that outreach... >> rose: engement was a wier. >> engagement would get them farther than it has, now they're recalculating. i ink it was right to reset with russia to sp the deterioration relations. there's a limit to howar things can improveith is russian government. >> because >> bause it's an autratic authoritarian regime that i think dends upon anti-americanism as part of its political gitimacy. i don't ink we're going to have the kind of relionship that i d manythers thoht that wuld have a should have in the 1990s without a change of regime in russia. and a change many regime in russia is no somethinwean produc >> where is the president over the next two years going with

respect to national security policy. >> where he goes will depend on what happens in november. if he is considerably weakened, i think there will be even fewer foreign policy initiatives. he'll concentrate on domestic politics. he'll concentrate on t ecomy as aay building up his political capital for 2012. and incidentally, i think the president is now in the trough of his presidency: i think he'll rebound after the elections. he'll rebound only because ere wi be somebody ee if the publicans take overhe hse to sre the responsibility for what the american public thinks is going wrong. >> rose: so it's a mixed blessingfhere's change in e congress? >> i think that's right. >> rose: "the grew gal superpower: america's global leadership? a cash-straed era."