>> the labor market's going to be one of those stories that's a little on the weaker side. it's not to say we won't adding jobs, but rather the unemployment rate is going to stay high. >> tom: from low inflation to high unemployment, the good, the bad and the ugly for the economy in 2011. you're watching "nightly business report" for wednesday, december 29. this is "nightly business report" with susie gharib and tom hudson. "nightly business report" is made possible by:

this program is made possible by contributions to your pbs station from viewers like you. captioning sponsored by wpbt >> tom: good evening and thanks for joining us. susie gharib is off tonight. with just two days left in 2010, economists are rethinking their outlook for 2011. stocks are closing out their best december performance in almost 20 years. holiday retail sales were better than hoped, and the economy is expected to pick up steam. but there's one big wild card: jobs. a new career builder survey shows firms do plan to add workers next year, but not until they're sure demand will support those workers. suzanne pratt looks at where the economy could be headed next year. >> reporter: when it comes to the u.s. economy in 2011, there's good news and bad news. let's start with the good.

if forecasts are correct, g.d.p. will grow at an annual rate next year of anywhere from 3% to 3.5%. it would be the strongest showing for the u.s. economy in four years. in the last few weeks, experts have been upping their growth targets. that's thanks to the improved tone of economic data, as well as the extension of bush-era tax cuts. still, p.n.c.'s stuart hoffman says the u.s. economy should be stronger. >> if anything i call it a half- speed economic recovery in the sense that the gains, not only this year, but probably again next year, aren't the typical rip-roaring recovery that you would expect after such a deep recession, as has been more typical of the what the u.s. economy over the last 40 years. >> reporter: now, for the bad news. if you guessed it will be the sorry state of the labor market, you're correct. most economists agree the unemployment rate in 2011 will remain above 9%. drew matus of u.b.s. says what many americans don't realize is

that we can have an expanding economy and a lousy job picture. >> the labor market's going to be one of those stories that's a little on the weaker side. it's not to say we won't adding jobs, but rather the unemployment rate is going to stay high. and, i think that's something we're just going to have to learn to live with, particularly if they continue to extend unemployment benefits. that will keep the unemployment rate higher than it otherwise would be. >> reporter: because the unemployment rate is likely to stay stubbornly high, some experts predict the federal reserve will be forced to pump even more money into the economy next year. julia coronado of b.n.p. paribas says policymakers need to deliver a shock and awe kind of number. she guesses it could be as high as $1.5 trillion in 2011. >> as we can see with mortgage rates and interest rates in general, they're actually rising, not falling. and so i think what that tells me is you actually need that bigger up front commitment. the stronger signal from the fed.

"we are going to be here no matter what. we're going to help this process along." >> reporter: the bottom line on the u.s. economy in the next 12 months? it will likely get brighter. but it will also remain hobbled by high unemployment, which will hurt consumer demand. suzanne pratt, "nightly business report," new york. >> tom: here are the stories in tonight's n.b.r. newswheel: stocks tread water on light trading. at the bell, the dow rose nine points, the nasdaq added four and the s&p 500 was up a point. volume of course remained very light, just over a half billion shares moved on the big board and 1.1 billion on the nasdaq. investors though remain hungry for gold, keeping the precious metal firmly above the $1,400 mark for a second day running. february gold futures closed up almost $8 at $1,413 an ounce. and another arrest in the government's probe of insider trading at what are called "expert network firms." those are consulting companies

for big investors like hedge funds. winifred jiau was arrested and charged with conspiracy and securities fraud for allegedly providing insider information on public companies like nvidia and marvell technology. no comment yet from the california woman. her arrest was the seventh in this case. still ahead, with more people than ever needing a helping hand, charities are doing what they can to stretch a buck. how not-for-profits are making ends meet. that collective sigh of relief tonight is from weary travelers finally getting to their destinations after being stranded by this past weekend's giant snowstorm in the northeast. flights are leaving new york area airports on time, rail travel is improving and major roadways are clear of snow. meanwhile, the blizzard kept shoppers from spending $1 billion sunday and monday. but retailers are hopeful those sales will bounce back as streets are cleared and transportation gets back to normal. shopper track, which tallies the numbers, says the two days after christmas usually generate about

$10 billion of sales. the winter blast also brought historic cold temperatures to florida farmers. thousands of acres of cucumbers, squash and other winter vegetables froze, costing florida's agriculture industry an estimated $115 million. that kind of economic damage is on par with the expected losses in the airline industry. sam accursio farms 2,000 acres south of homestead, florida-- essentially at the southern tip of the u.s. mainland. we visited him in his fields-- one that survived the cold, and another that didn't. >> plan can only take so much of this. usually we have one event, but this is the third frost these plants have been through. you can see some damage. but overall i'm happy that we're going to have something to harvest. and to that point, what do you have invested in this 10 acres that we're looking at? >> it approximately $2,000 per acre. every acre you see up to this point.

so invested 20,000 total. what do you expect to get back in revenue when you harvest these? >> we never know, because we're, it's supply and demand. we don't make the price. we take the price, whatever they give us. but we think it will be, you know, hopefully $4,000 an acre. >> reporter: let's take a look at some of the damage in the healthy plants here. >> you can see how much the squash has grown since this first frost, because all this green is the new growth. but the other night, like i told you, you could only out here and take this and it was just like an ice cube when you picked a leaf off, solid frozen. >> reporter: so this one here with this damaged leaf, you do see a nice, this one looks like -- >> yes. we're going to harvest that. i'll cut it off for you so you can look at it. you can see it does have wind scar from all the wind. but right now we're hoping to market this, this may be a

number two, you go it's a good lucking squash. >> reporter: yes, about five or six inches. the this is something that in the next seven days or so could be at a grocery store in boston. >> that's correct. >> reporter: let's take a look at some of the damaged field. sam, you've got $2,000 per acre here, of pickling cucumbers a couple weeks ago. the freeze comes, here's what the fields look like now, plowed under, not because of the harvest but because of the crop. costing you two grand in lost costs. what's the additional cost to get another crop in the ground here? >> well, it's going to be the same. we have additional costs of preparation to the land, so it will be a little bit more. but we will come back for the springtime and try it again. >> reporter: you've been out here in south florida growing vegetables for a long, long time. weather is way the risk when it comes to growers and the agriculture community. have you experienced anything like this before, the freeze in january and the two freezes? >> never. i've been in these fields since

i was a kid and i have never seen a winter like this before. >> reporter: what does it do to the business? >> well, it's stress tell. it's a huge economic loss, you know. not only for the business, for my workers, we're going to have to, the pickers automatically, they're out of business. and it's huge. >> reporter: do you have the cash flow to take these kind of losses? or do you wind up having to go to the bank? >> we go to the bank, and ask for additional moneys. >> reporter: and how has that been greeted? >> well, so far okay. because i have a good track record. >> reporter: sam also told us despite the freeze hurting that supply of florida's zucchinis, prices have actually dropped thanks to imports from mexico.

by now this week, you know the theme: light trading volume and small moves for stocks. let's take a look at what was moving in tonight's "market focus." the small gains today were enough to put the major stock indices at near year-to-date highs and new post-recession highs. this month has not seen a lot of volatility, but the small daily gains have added up. just two sessions left in the month, and the dow industrials have added 5% this month. the nasdaq is more than 6.5% higher and the s&p 500 has staged almost a 7% rally so far in december.

ending the year on a high note. it was energy again today fueling the gains, even as oil prices fell a fraction. it was coal miner consol energy that led the energy pack though, up more than 3%. tonight this is consol's highest price since march. the major stock indices aren't the only items hitting some interesting levels. copper prices for instance touched new highs before dropping on light volume. but moving to that new high was an all-time for copper prices. copper is looked at as an economic barometer for the global economy thanks to its industrial uses. and one of the most actively traded stocks on the nasdaq today was a little-known chinese copper and zinc miner, xing universal. shares had been languishing below $2 since february, but today they popped almost 50% and with an explosion in volume-- 26 million shares.

you saw this on our list of most actives. usually fewer than one million shares trade. while we're talking commodities, sugar prices haven't been this high in a generation. again, its a case of down from yesterday's close, but only after hitting a new 30-year high during the trading session. global demand has helped push prices to these levels. but high sugar prices hasn't helped imperial sugar. the sharp snap higher in sugar puts the pinch on profit margins at imperial. the sugar price jump led to a larger-than-expected loss in the latest quarter. and that led to a 6% drop today on heavy volume. shares are at a two-month low. merger action in retail has been picking up as the year winds down. there's more talk about a possible deal for b.j. wholesale club. shares of b.j.'s wholesale club surging over 7% on a report the discount club may have to defend itself from a hostile takeover that could come from private- equity firm leonard green. all this speculation has the stock at more than a seven-year high. finally tonight, bond yields crept a tad lower, meaning bond

prices were higher. but the trend as the year comes to a close has been for higher interest rates and lower bond prices. here's how the year has been for the yield on the 10-year government bond. bond rates began climbing recently as the federal reserve made it official that it was buying government bonds in its latest strategy to boost the economy. that was back in november, since then, rates have backed up to over 3%. as rates rise, bond prices fall. and that's tonight's "market focus."

>> tom: new stock market highs, rising interest rates and oil prices. those are the predictions from tonight's "street critique" guest. she's hilary kramer, editor at gamechangerstocks.com. she joins us from the nasdaq. nice to see you. happy new year. >> thank you, and to you too, tom. >> tom: let's start with the overall market prediction. a year ago you thought the sp would be up about 3%. it's up 13% so far. next year you think the sp will hit 1400, that would be a 10% jump from tonight's close. what's the fuel? >> the fuel is that the united states economy is healing. maybe not healthy, but it's healing fast enough that assets are starting to transfer into equitys and we're also seeing a safety play from the rest of the world, especially europe, that's looking for a more risk-free bet. >> tom: that means you also think that bond prices will move down, thus fueling interest rates moving higher. right now the 10-year yielding

just over 3%. you think that will climb to 4%. and you see oil prices in the triple digit range and we are less than $10 away from that tonight. so $100 oil, could it go higher? >> oil can certainly move higher. there's insatiable appetite across the emerging markets,es china, for example where they've become a net imimportanter of cole, for example. >> tom: and you like china when it comes to energy and the new year ask the stork market as well. china petroleum and chemical one of your picks, around $95 per share. is it simply china's appetite for oil the fuel? >> well, we have a dividend play here and this is one of the cheapest of the big oil companies. you can't go wrong with the valuation alone. >> tom: so you're looking for a valuation and growth from chinese oil. what about financial stocks? you've been talking about financial area for several months now. you like city group. this thing had been left for dead a long time ago. now one of the most actively traded issues, but still below arrest 5. what's the catalyst and hats the price target?

>> well, i think $10. this is more than a double, tom, when it comes to citigroup the c.e.o. is expanding into the emerging markets, he's making inroads there and also their credit card quality, the chargeoff, bad loans, all improving across the board, and their competition is gone, right. there's no more wacovia, and no more lehman brothers. so they own the market. there's -- >> tom: let's look at your 2010 picks. december 30 you laked teva pharmaceuticals, down 7%, g. o. i. up almost 54%. apple up 54% and goldman sax the same price a year ago. do you like this quartet? >> they are still excellent. you should also be beating some teva right here, it's only down because of concerns that their big blockbuster drug could go off patent in 2014. and all of them are buys, and apple as you may know i've seen going above $400 a share.

>> tom: a minute left, i want to get to a couple e-mail questions talking about zales, thiss with a pick of yours a few weeks ago of how do you know when to sell a stock like zale? are you selling it yet? >> well, if you had bought it when i recommended it three weeks ago you'd be up 62.6% on zals, and it's also in my portfolio, my news letter. take your money off the table, if you're happy you've made a nice pop in less than a month, but i'm sticking with zales because i see an opportunity here. this is a retailer that could return to prominence. >> tom: how about disclosures, ownership positions still? >> yes. i own all these stocks. going into 2011. >> tom: you can follow her on our blog, e-mail us of course, or send us a note by twitter. or on facebook. we'll feature some of your questions next wednesday, and more questions answered on the blog, nbr.com.

our guest this evening, hilary kramer with game changer stocks.com. >> tom: here's what we're watching for tomorrow: weekly jobless claims are out, along with the realtors report on november pending home sales. also tomorrow, with gold prices at fresh highs, will gold continue to shine in 2011 or will the precious metal's record run be tarnished? we'll have two sides of the gold coin in the new year. there's a movement in the works for wealthy americans to give back the money they saved when the bush tax cuts were extended. three professors at yale and cornell universities set up a website, giveitbackforjobs.com, encouraging people to donate the money to charity. there's a calculator to figure out your tax cut and choices for groups that will take your dollars. the professors say it's an effort to promote fairness. if you've been using a honda snowblower to clear your driveway from the weekend's

blizzard, take a closer look at it. honda is recalling more than 18,000 of the machines because of a fire hazard from leaking fuel. the snowblowers in question are red and black, and were sold at honda power dealerships for the last five years. if you think yours is one of them, contact a honda dealer to get it fixed.

millions of americans are adding up the cost of holiday gift giving and looking at the impact on their budget, assuming they know how to do that. tonight's "money file" points out there's a whole generation out there that's lacking budget skills. here's manisha thakor, co-author of "on my own two feet: a girl's guide to personal finance." >> young adults are in financial trouble. a 2009 study by the national foundation for credit counseling revealed that nearly half of gen y respondents did not understand how to save and budget, and that 45% of them had no savings at all. in an environment of 9%-plus unemployment, stagnant wages, and parents who themselves are tapped out-- with the latest research indicating nearly eight out of 10 americans living paycheck-to-paycheck-- the traditional safety net of the

bank of mom and dad is ancient history. so we need to help gen x and gen y learn to financially fish for themselves. 20 or 30 years ago, young adults were coming of age in a financial landscape that was much less complex. there were many fewer financial products to choose from. young adults weren't entering the workforce already saddled by five or six digits of student loan debt. and they weren't bombarded 24/7/365 by unrealistic media images of average lifestyles that are anything but. the challenge on the financial literacy front is that this younger generation wants to consume information differently than mom and dad. they want it 21st century style- - over the internet and on their mobile phones. so if you've got a young adult in your life, give the gift that keeps on giving-- encouragement to teach themselves about personal finance. i'm manisha thakor. >> tom: and finally tonight, december is a busy time for charities as year-end donations

roll in. but after two years of recession, some nonprofits are struggling to make up lost revenue. state and local governments are pulling back on many of the grants they've traditionally given to charities. as a result, those groups are now coping by getting creative. anna olson explains. >> reporter: life at martha's table moves fast. the nonprofit runs a day care center for 300 kids, a thrift store that hands out clothes and a meal service that feeds over a thousand people a day. lindsey buss is at the center of it all. he says because of the soft economy, martha's table is serving more people than ever. >> they have a place to cook food, but they don't have anything in the cupboard. that's where we see the number of people coming to us for groceries more than quadrupling in the past year. >> reporter: martha's has 75 employees and thousands of volunteers. but resources these days are stretched thin. demand has skyrocketed and government help has fallen.

>> local government, they're having their own budget crunches, and that's really putting a lot of pressure on us. >> reporter: martha's table depends on uncle sam for a third of its operating costs. that funding has been slashed repeatedly in recent years, but the organization is keeping up by being innovative. >> it's pretty incredible, the resourcefulness and creativity that people bring to finding solutions. >> reporter: to meet the challenges, martha's table is working with farmers and restaurants to get the extra food they need for free. workers here say it's about being smarter, and not settling for less. but it's not easy. buss is worried about continually asking for more from his staff. >> it's one thing to ask them for them to dig deeper in an emergency, but if that emergency becomes the new normal, the question becomes how long can they hold up that pace. >> reporter: bowen mccauley dance in arlington, virginia has also adapted. the dance company depends on state and government funding to run programs like this class for

senior citizens with parkinson's disease. but this year, artistic director lucy bowen mccauley got an unpleasant surprise. a third of the money she'd been promised from the state didn't come through. >> that is hard for budgeting, because you already put it in your budget and you planned to have the money, and so the carpet is sort of pulled out from underneath you when that happens. >> reporter: that's when mccauley realized she'd have to come up with the money a different way. she used cash reserves to double the number of programs she was offering, and to get the word out. >> by having more things to offer, we got more interest from individuals and corporate donors. so that's kind of how we stayed afloat. >> reporter: even if government money dries up completely, mccauley says she'll just work harder. >> we're going to have to keep reaching out to new donors and keep getting the word out about what we do, because it seems the more people know about us, the more people want to help us and keep us going. >> reporter: tomorrow we'll look at how non-profits in the arts are faring, as donations to many of them have fallen.

anna olson, "nightly business report," washington. >> tom: that's "nightly business report" for wednesday, december 29. i'm tom hudson. good night everybody. we hope to see you all again tomorrow night. "nightly business report" is made possible by: this program was made possible by contributions to your pbs station from viewers like you. captioning sponsored by wpbt captioned by media access group at wgbh access.wgbh.org

>> more information about investing is available in "nightly business report's" video. to order this dvd, call 1-800- play-pbs or visit online at shoppbs.org. >>