>> rose: will come to our program. tonight we go back to egypt to look at the forces demanding change and those resisting change and we begin with lyse doucet of the bbc. >> the square was just littered with paving stones and rocks and debris. the litter was strewn everywhere. i couldn't believe what it was like and it has now become a focal point for the skirmishes, the confrontation. it is truly not just a battle for the square but a battle for cairo and some egyptians even say for the soul of this country. >> rose: and we continue with tom friedman in amman, jordan. >> mubarak kept a complete vacuum between the muslim brothers and his authoritarian regime. they had no competition. and therefore they didn't really have to think through a full platform of how to run egypt,

what do we think of free trade, innovation, education policy. they had it's easy, all they had to say hosni mubarak and they could win 20% of the vote. so if this system actually opens up, the muslim brotherhood is going to have to compete against the dynamic forces... political forces in egypt that you see on the street there right now. and that will be a wholly different situation i think that they can't imagine and that we can't imagine. >> rose: and for a different perspective this evening, we conclude with henry kissinger, the former secretary of state. >> it's all very well to talk to say that we shouldn't have supported mubarak over the years but we cannot visit ally after ally, throw them away after some period and go into open opposition with them. we should also remember what the impact is on the people who have

been supporting us and who may ask to support us in the future. which is not to say that mubarak should stay in office but he should be... should not be... we should give him a chance for a decent exit. >> rose: lyse doucet of the bbc from cairo. tom friedman of the "new york times" from amman, jordan, and henry kissinger here in the studio next. maybe you want school kids to have more exposure to the arts. maybe you want to provide meals for the needy. or maybe you want to help when the unexpected happens. whatever you want to do, members project from american express can help you take the first step. vote, volunteer, or donate for the causes you believe in at membersproject.com. take charge of making a difference.

captioning sponsored by rose communications from our studios in new york city, this is charlie rose. >> rose: protestors continue for a tenth day to call for president hosni mubarak's resignation. there were new clashes and gunfire as the army tried to separate opposition protestors from regime supporters. president mubarak said in an interview with abc news's christiane amanpour that he fears chaos if he steps down now. egyptian vice president omar suleiman said on state television that the protestors' demands had been met and that elections would be held in less than 200 days. later today, secretary of state hillary clinton strongly

condemned the violence. >> this is a violation of international norms that guarantee freedom of the press and it is unacceptable under any circumstances. we also condemn in the strongest determines attacks on peaceful demonstrators, human rights activists, foreigners, and diplomats. freedom of assembly, freedom of expression, and freedom of the press are pillars of an open and inclusive society. >> rose: joining me now on the phone from cairo is lyse doucette, she is a presenter and correspondent with the bbc news and world service. i am pleased to have her on this program. she has been there in cairo reporting for the bbc. what significant things happened today and what do we expect tomorrow? >> it is just extraordinary to see the transformation that has happened in that now famous central cairo square over the

past 48 hours. for the past eight days it had been a place with almost a carnival atmosphere. people brought their children there, they had picnics there, there was a palpable mood of celebration and most of the protestors who had gathered there believed that victory was just around the corner. that felt that president mubarak would go. but for the past two days, that square has been turned into a battleground. i walked to the square early this morning after what had been a long night of clashes between the anti-government protestors and the pro-mubarak supporters who had forced their way into the square yesterday and there were barrier after barrier after barrier. huge sheets of corrugated iron new tanks manned by the army, new lines of men, the anti-mubarak protestors who were there with their sticks and iron rods, whatever they could bring

to try to defend the square. and the square was just littered with paving stones and rocks and debris. the litter was strewn everywhere. i couldn't believe what it was like. and it's now become a focal point for the skirmishes, the confrontation. it's not just a battle for the square but a battleor cairo and some egyptians even say for the soul of this country. >> and what will affect how it turns out? >> well, what will affect how it turns out? the main refrain in that square has been changed since the beginning. they want president mubarak to go. they spell it out clearly, they don't talk about the ruling party, they don't talk about the government. he, for them, is the symbol of 30 years of what they see as an authoritarian rule, repression, lack of freedom of expression and freedom of association. you see slogans like "the game is up." you see graffiti scribbled on

tanks which i can't say it on air in a public broadcast. and as we head into friday they call friday the day of ouster. they believe if they push far enough and hard enough and get enough people there that president mubarak will go. but what's standing between them and that demand? well, a very stubborn president. that's what all his friends and allies say. but also the army. the army promised the protestors they wouldn't move against them and they haven't. but they also haven't moved against the president. >> rose: if the army and omar suleiman go to the president and say "you have to go now," the president goes? >> it's a very interesting question, charlie, because i've asked that from many people and i've been told by people who know the president well, who know the egyptian military and they say as incredible as it sounds they say it just wouldn't happen. they say that president mubarak and his patriarchy is the man at the top.

omar suleiman, of course, is a very close aide of president mubarak, he actually saved his life decades ago. they simply wouldn't go point blank and say to the president "you're time is up." and as i mentioned, they say he's also a very stubborn man. and it's a stark contrast to the situation we have seen in tunisia where i was a few weeks ago where, indeed, the army chief basically made it clear that it was time for the president to go, is made it clear he wouldn't fire on the protestors and wouldn't take orders to go do so and basically made it clear that president ben ali should leave the country. now, that's tunisia and with all due respect to tunisia it is a more marginal arab state, north african state. think of the symbolism if president hosni mubarak, the strong man of the region in egypt, the pivotal player in this region, backed by the united states for decades to the tune of $1.5 billion, to those people who have been taking to the streets here and so many other arab states, if president mubarak can go, well, what about

all the rest? >> rose: what is it in his mind that he needs to hear to end this? >> well, i've been speaking to some senior members of the national democratic party and some of them have been coming up with some solutions and tonight i spoke to the c.e.o. and director, the chairman, of one of egypt's billionaires. and he's come up with a five-point transition plan. the idea would be that you would bring about constitutional change more quickly so that you would change the framework in which free and fair elections would happen. most critically that the elections would be under judicial supervision. in other words, you would change the rule to the game. the game that has been played here so long which ended up in the ruling party getting the lion's share, almost 90% of the seats and president mubarak almost getting the vast majority of votes. so if you change the constitution, you bring ahead

the elections, you still allow him to step down legally, constitutionally. what they don't want and what the president said will absolutely not happen, he doesn't want him doing what ben ali did is getting in a plane in the dark of night and actually leaving his country to spend the rest of his years in exile. so there are ways that you could finesse it. you could hasten it, you can... to allow some kind kind of space-saving measure so it doesn't look as though he's simply running away or that people are pushing him away or that he's been toppled. in a sense, it's... all of it is smoke and mirrors, if you like, because basically his time is up. his authority has been so badly dented. but he's holding on. it's interesting today when the new prime minister spoke, he tried to appeal to egyptians on the basis of their culture and pride. very proud people, as you know, charlie. he said listen, in our culture if you have disagreements with

the father you don't ask him to leave the house." but how does that go down with what they call the facebook generation that's been meeting night after night in tahrir square? and it's not just the young people because i know that going there everyday i've met bankers and c.e.o.s, labors, men and women young and old, they aren't just there. the young people have played a big role in this and i don't think they see egyptian culture. in fact, i've been told that. they don't see egyptian culture in the same way. they're a different generation. just think of it, it's the 20s and 30s who were part of the initial wave bringing people on to the streets and the people who are still run the show are in their 70s and 80s. >> rose: is it more likely in your judgment to happen that way to some formula at some point and someone forces mubarak to accept that kind of plan that would make it satisfactory to him or is the fear of everybody that it will be decided in the

street? >> you know, charlie, these are such unpredictable times. when i was in tunisia where it took some four weeks to get to the point where ben ali understood that he had to leave. although i spoke to a pilot who said he still planned to come back but the pilot made sure he didn't come back. across the arab world, including in egypt, they dare to think, well, could we do that here? and even egyptians have been startled by the pace of... and the passion of the protests here how far things have escalateed. everyday that we begin reporting here you just don't know what the day will bring. we were surprised when they sent the fighter jets screaming over cairo to intimidate people. we were surprised when the pro-mubarak supporters went into the square and there were these clashes. you have to... there's an element of... this is uncharted territory so the things you mentioned, they're all possible.

but how are we to know how many people are going to go out in the streets? how are we to know when something will snap with the... with that large amount of people so impassioned getting angry. will they push it? what we do know is that the army has made it clear that while they won't fire on the protestors, they have also made it clear that their job is to keep public order. and don't forget that this army has been the backbone of president mubarak's regime ever since he's been in power. and every leader here since they ousted the monarchy in 1952 has come from the military. so they are... they will play a pivotal role. if the security situation continues to deteriorate, then the army will have to think again. so i think we have to wait and see how that plays out. all options, i think, are on the table. but a lot of it comes down to the 82-year-old leader who's sitting in his palace tonight and thinking about his people and thinking about his legacy. >> rose: thank you very much. lyse doucet from the bbc.

back in a moment. tom friedman from the "new york times." >> rose: joining me from amman, jordan, is tom friedman, the columnist in for the "new york times". he's been in israel, he is in amman and i assume he will go to cairo soon. you wrote a column in which you said "we will know this region before egypt and after egypt." tell me what after egypt is going to look like and what's going to define it and what's going to characterize it and who's going to influence it? >> well, that's obviously in playwright now, charlie. today was an important day. obviously i'm watching the news here from cairo, from amman, like so many jordanians. and, you know, the sense i picked up today just from my own reporting on the street with people and conversation with

both friends and professional people is that the situation in egypt seems to be getting out of control. certainly the... you know, the beating up of protestors, the beating up of the opposition that's manifested on the street and the beating up of journalists. and what i think that's doing is frightening just a lot of people in the region and if a week ago there was a sense that this could really spread, certainly if egypt ends in a chaotic way that kind of democratic spring will be aboard it. obviously we're just taking this day to day and we're all watching this from the outside. even people in egypt don't seem to know what's going on. but what "ae" means, what "after egypt" means, charlie, it's still in play. >> rose: you have said and others have said that what's going hon in the streets of egypt is about a social economic

marginalization and the protest is for freedom and for an opportunity to participate in the government. does that have a 50-50 chance, in your judgment, a possibility of emerging into a 21st century egypt that is what you hoped for and wrote about ten years ago? >> you know, i can only hope so, charlie. looking at it from afar-- and that's where i've been, because i've been sort of orbiting the place in these other countries to get a sense of how this is pulsating outward-- you can only hope so. but it's also just really up in the air right now. i find it very confusing. i was heartened by the fact that this revolution in egypt-- if one can call it that-- seemed to be spearheaded by young centrist more secular types as i looked at the footage.

and we know who those people are. they're young 20-somethings. this is a region where i believe 75% of the population is under the age of 30, or 50 under the age of 20. they're connected to the world. they see what other people are doing. they see the opportunities other young people have. and they really want to be part of a modern future for their country. and unfortunately they've not been aloud to have a voice in their future and educationally, you know, they're really struggling. i mean, i came here from singapore via europe and, you know, when you come here from singapore, charlie, and you see the incredible investment in education singapore makes. i mean, singapore wakes up every morning wondering how they can better teach multiplication to

their third graders. and then you look at the protestors in egypt and my heart goes out to them because i don't... you just know how far behind they are in terms of having the educational skills and the technical skills to really be competitive against the cutting edge of today's global economy. i mean, you know, i used to write egypt should have been the taiwan of the eastern mediterranean. it had all this cheap labor, english speaking educated work force. it had the suez canal. it would have been a perfect outpost for manufacturing. it would have been a great steppingstone for egypt into the global economy. but it never quite made it there. it started reforming-- in fairness to mubarak. he started appointing some very able people to manage the country's economy in the last five years. they grew at 6% or so the last two years. but they had such a hole to dig out of. they needed to be growing at chinese/indian rates, 8%, 9%,

10%, 12% in order to keep up with their growing population. and so obviously there had to be a transition. but what breaks your heart is watching the tourist industry there get crushed, the country squandering billions of dollars. and you just wish this transition could have been peaceful because the last thing egypt needs is now to set itself back one, two, or three years. and so, yeah, i'm just very concerned that this come to a peaceful end quickly. >> rose: is it imperative that whatever forces come to gather in power they have to engage and recognize the muslim brotherhood >> you know, i... that's going to be for egyptians to decide. you know, i think basically that a post-mubarak egypt, charlie, that really invites others to start political parties is one that the... the muslim

brotherhood is not going to be automatically dominant in. in fact, i think it's going to be very challenging for them. because, see, the muslim brotherhood which is active here in jordan and n egypt, and i certainly have no problem being in the government, it's not my country, but they're an important political force there. and i think we should as a government... that's an issue for egyptians to decide. but what actually excites me is i think that if this situation in egypt can calm down and they actually do open up the political system there, the muslim brotherhood is going to have competition. because there actually will be a legitimate, authentic moderate centrist maybe moderate islamic party that will start to compete with them. see, they've had it's easy, charlie, in the sense that mubarak kept a complete vacuum between the muslim brothers and his authoritarian regime. they had no competition. and therefore they didn't really have to, you know, think through a full platform of how to run

egypt, the economy, what do we think of free trade, education, innovation policy? they had it kind of easy. all they had to say was hosni mubarak and they could win 20% of the vote. so if this system actually opens up, the muslim brotherhood is going to have to compete against is dynamic forces... political forces in egypt that you see on the street there right now. and that will be a wholly different situation i think that they can't imagine and that we can't imagine. >> rose: is the big question now whether mubarak leaves now, in the words of the president, or he leaves when he wanted to leave in september? is that the question? and how will that be determined? >> charlie, i just don't know. you know, i don't know how much of this is mubarak, how much of this is the new cabinet he's named, which is essentially an extension of him, and how much

of this is the egyptian military. let's remember, the egyptian military is as deeply embedded in terms of owning companies and simply being involved in the egyptian economy, every bit as much as the p.l.a.-- the people's liberation army-- in china is. and i think one of the very confusing things about this moment is are they dictating to mubarak? is mubarak dictating to them? is omar suleiman, the new vice president, is he dictating to both? he was former... and probably still is chief of intelligence. we just don't know. and because the opposition has no defined leadership right now and defined agenda, there isn't one or two spokespeople you can go to on the other side and say "will this satisfy you? how about if we cut the salami here? will that satisfy you?" and i think that's one of the

confusing things about the situation. >> rose: well, i think you said to me in a telephone call that the first person you talked to israel said "nothing is relevant again." i mean, everything is... that we thought is no longer relevant. and i understand that. >> you know, when you... >> rose: go ahead. >> you know, when you think, charlie, i mean, egypt really is the keystone of the whole arab world. d one reason the arab world has drifted in terms of social and economic development over the last 30 years, if you think of the heart of the arab world, egypt, saudi arabia, syria, iraq that kind of swath right down the middle, was because egypt drifted. and had egypt really adopted a really aggressive forward-leaning... i mean like korea, taiwan, singapore economic innovation and human development policy, that would

have led the whole arab world. egypt's always been a leader. but an arab world where egypt-- which is a bedrock of stability, maybe it was too stable, maybe it was too slow-- but it was a bedrock that everybody could count on whether you are a gulfy who... someone from the persian gulf who wanted to spend your summers in cairo, you're a business person, you needed someone to mediate between israelis and palestinians. you know, egypt was kind of that bedrock. i don't think anyone here can quite imagine what it would be like to have a middle east where egypt is not that bedrock but is kind of spinning out of control. i think that's very frightening to people and i really hope that doesn't happen but i think the fear of that is now... i sense here in jordan really starting to creep into people's consciousness. >> rose: it spins out of control. >> yeah. i mean, you just see these scenes from cairo. i mean, again, i only know what i'm reading. i'm in jordan, i'm not there.

but i see my colleagues being beaten up, you see egyptians being killed, taken from their home. i was at a jordanian friend's home tonight. he said he called a friend in cairo earlier, in the middle of the day, and he sounded very groggy on the phone and the friend told him... he said "did i wake you up?" he said "well, i had the night shift last night." so this was a guy who was out with his neighbors simply protecting their home from vigilantes. well, how long can that go on? people can't do that forever. and god forbid egyptians should be forced to do that. so i'm... i'm still really hopeful this is going to end up in a new egypt with a consensual politics and with people feeling a shared destiny. but sitting here tonight in jordan and watching it, you really have to be worried. >> rose: let me just raise two quick questions. i know it's late for you and i thank you very much for being

here. one is what have we learned from the turkish experience and the role it has undertaken as some kind of guide for where egypt might go? >> well, you know, if you look at turkey's history, remember, they had a leader, ataturk, who basically ripped religion, ripped islam right out of the heart of turkey. i mean, he enforced a secular regime. and that i don't think we're going to see in egypt and he kind of force marched turkey post-world war i when it really lost the rest of its empire on to a path of modernization. and really saw turkey's future as a european country basically. i'm not sure... i certainly don't see egypt going on that kind of aggressive secular

tendency at all. i would say just the opposite. if you did have a more open system there i think you'd see more than a few muslim parties. and that's fine. you know, i think the only thing i just personally hope for whether they're called the muslim brotherhood or the a.k.p. that you have in turkey that they're parties that are committed to bringing egypt into the 21st century in a way that will allow all its young people to realize their full potential and aspirations. that's what's been missing here. it's been missing for 30 years but we were attentioned to it, you and i talked about this charlie almost a decade ago when the arab human development report came out by the united nations development program. it was actually led by an egyptian. that was group of arab academic social scientists and economists asking really why is the arab world so lagging in the basic

indices of human development and they said it's very simple, it's a deficit of freedom we have, a deficit of knowledge and of good education and a deficit of women's empowerment and that's what needs to be overcome. unfortunately that report came out a decade ago. the arab league based in cairo, basically would not allow it to be december semi-nated from there. i think it was originally publishd from here in amman at the time there was a jordanian who was part of the publication and we didn't hear from it since basically. and that was such a warning bell of what was needed and it came out right at the time of 9/11 and unfortunately those deficits are here only bigger in terms of women's empowerment, freedom and knowledge and education. >> rose: what are the lessons for the united states in the way it conducts its foreign policy when a leadership of a country

favorable to the foreign policy of the united states but has... and is creating pressures within that might explode? >> it's always a hard call but, you know, if you looked at what we did, basically, we spoke about reform, we engaged the egyptians on reform. but if you look at where the money went, the money really went into the military and the security services. and now we're paying the price of that. but, you know, ultimately, charlie, i don't know what exactly... i don't know looking back when was the point when you said we're going to break relations with you mubarak unless you do this. you know, the sad thing about egypt was that this process of democratization had to be a decades-long process. it's one of the things we learned where we see that in iraq. you gave the turkey example.

you know, building the kind of civil society, the kind of software you need, the kind of habits of democratization you can't do in one or two years and is something i wish we had engaged in, insisted on engaging in back when we reestablished ties with egypt and forged the camp david peace treaty back in the '70s. but ultimately everyone wants to make this an american story and certainly we're giving them a billion dollars a year, we are part of it. we are part of... a key part of supporting this regime but ultimately this was about mubarak and the egyptian military. this was a military regime. and they did not serve their people well. they did not serve their young people well. by creating this situation at home where you had one basically secular authoritarian regime with its kind of front party and the muslim brotherhood and nothing in between. no legitimate modernizing

forward-looking progressive party that young people could really invest their future in. and that gap eventually just got so wide that the country plunged into it. and, you know, historians, i think, are going to be very hard on the united states, successive administrations on this. but most of all they should be hard on mubarak because he was told this time and time again. >> rose: does this look to you like if you look at the 21st century, 9/11 was a powerful event. the rise of asia a powerful event. and now this comes along with equal power to change history. >> i have that feeling. you know, charlie, i was in israel on 9/11 and i was back there last week and then in the west bank and i actually did the

same kind of... after 9/11, israel, west bank, jordan, that i've done today just because i'm really interested in how all this is playing out here because egypt is such a pulsing heart and this is a huge earthquake. i pray that when the... when the initial shock is over that ultimately it's going to be a powerful driver for reform throughout this region. that's my hope. i think that's everybody's hope here. because this region desperately needs to catch up. december pri he need to be creating the kind of jobs and political openness to contain a region that is 100 million people between the ages, i think of 15 and 26. and they're not going away and their aspirations are not going

away. so i'm still going to hope that this... that this comes out right and i think that the future is still very much open and a few right smart decisions now by mubarak and the egyptian military i think could come this thing down and really put it on a track with a positive slope so other people around the region feel energized by it, not terrified by it. and so i'm hoping it's going to be the former and that it's going to have that effect. but i'm sitting here watching like everybody else. >> rose: tom, i thank you. i know it's late there, i know you came from a dinner, i know it's not easy to move around at a time like this and you did it for friendship and for all the good conferences we've had so i thank you very much. >> rose: joining me now is former u.s. secretary of state

henry kissinger. he's had an interesting perspective on the middle east that comes from a long history of brokering peace in the region. i'm once again pleased to have him on this program. welcome. >> good to be here always. >> rose: first about history. put these events in the context of change in the 21st century. >> it's a region which is composed of countries, many of which are artificial. they're the results of world war i and of the division of the region with the victors. that is not true of egypt. egypt is an ancient country. thousands of years of history of the different governmental structures. egypt has a huge impact on the region and egypt has been on the side of the united states since it switched in the late '70s under the president. so in the region now there are

pressures from the shiite community from a return to iran. there's the arab/israeli dispute. it's the issue of what we mean by democracy, the relationship between the domestic structure of the government and the capacity to perform internationally. many of the regimes are traditional semifeudal regimes. they have fuj resources. the emergence of the non-state actors that sometimes become as important. and all of this comes together with the egyptian upheaval.

>> rose: okay, but what's interesting are two big questions, how they started and who's in the street and what do they represent. that's a big question. and will they prevail is another. one, it went from tunisia to egypt. it l it go to jordan? will it go to yemen? will it go to saudi arabia? will it go to bahrain? >> well, one interesting question that arises out of this is who has the technical capability to organize a demonstration of tens of thousands of people coming together and keeping them together? so it is possible. i have no idea who did this and how it was organized in the various places. but even if the groups come together initially accidentally there must be some mechanism that keeps them together.

i mention this because it shows that outside groups with the high social connection capability can become a political factor themselves. >> rose: is it possible that it's the technology that you are not familiar with and that twitter and facebook and those kinds of things are an organizing element? >> of course. that's what i'm talking about. i'm not very familiar with them because i don't use them. >> rose: right. and... but they clearly have a political impact. >> they have a political impact. >> rose: in iran, and in egypt. >> sometimes it works for us, sometimes it works against the immediate national interest. but that isn't the issue. the issue is how do these new technologies-- leaving aside egypt-- fit into the structure of what one used to consider international order, which was entirely dependent... almost entirely dependent on the

relationship of the governments to each other and what the government said to each other. >> rose: does the united states in your judgment have a role to play? that? >> of course we have a role to play in that. but we cannot play a role where at the end of each day we feel we have to make a pronouncement too get ourselves to the head of the parade. a lot of this has it own momentum and i'm uneasy about the frequency with which our top people appear on television and announce what the egyptians must do at the time limit within they must carry it out. that's for the demonstrators to do. >> that's not for us to do. we should help where we can and

with the replacement of mubarak is inevitable and will occur but the speed with which it occurs is not something that should be determined by us and we do not have to participate in every tactical decision that arises at the end of each day. >> rose: okay, similar question. should we... if, in fact, there are what look like violations of sort of... on the part of one side or the other, where the people supportive of mubarak have sent in "thugs," should we condemn that? most people think we should. >> i think we should condemn the use of violence and we should certainly condemn the attacks on human rights workers and on journalists. that is absolutely important. and the statement that the secretary of state made today is

a very appropriate statement for the united states to make. but i would distinguish that from the evolution of the political process. we have to give the parties there a little breathing room. and we shouldn't make it look as if this is the primarily american project because this will have to include-- in fact will be important-- by egyptian nationalism, by some of the forces that we know exist in the area that are now quiet because states continually overthrow the existing system more important and any other objectives that they have and so we have to look at this in a somewhat longer prospect. now let me say something that will not be very popular because

it's all very well to talk to say that we shouldn't have supported mubarak over the years. but we cannot visit ally after ally throw them away after some period and go into open opposition with them. we should also remember what the impact is on the people who have been supporting us who we may a ask to support us in the future. this is not to say that mubarak should stay in office, but he should not be... we should give him a chance r a decent exit. >> rose: well, haven't they encouraged that privately by sending frank wisner-- who you know well-- over there to express in the private way the president... >> the administration has a huge problem. they were thrown suddenly into a crisis they obviously didn't

foresee what anyone else... >> and one they didn't inherit. >> the middle east was not even mentioned in the state of the union address so it clearly was not a top issue for national consideration. so now they have to improvise reactions and you couldn't plan for something that nobody foresaw. so i recommend the administration is under tremendous pressure and i've been in crisis situations. i have not been in crisis situations where we had a 24/7 news cycle and we therefore felt obliged to speak every evening on a fast-moving situation and this is a particularly complicated one because it has global international implications, it has local implications and it has domestic implications in this country.

so on the whole i would prefer if they would seem a little less frantic about getting into the news cycle. >> rose: the administration is frantic to get into the news cycle? >> that's what it looks like to me. >> rose: isn't hit in the interest of everybody for that transition government to be in place as soon as possible? >> there should be no idea of leaving everything as it is until the next election. i think think a transitional government will have to emerge out of this present crisis in a very short period of time. >> rose: weeks. >> within weeks, certainly. but it should not be based entirely or even largely on what the demonstrators say they want. it should give existing forces to democratic forces that they

say we know and other forces in the region an opportunity to express themselves in other than just mass demonstrations. >> rose: don't you believe that the forces that are on the cutting edge of change are the reform forces and the democratic forces? they're not a separate group. what we have now is a confluence of resentment against the mubarak administration. and the history of almost every revolution-- in fact i know no exception to this-- is that the concept of resentment has to sort itself out and then it has to be seen whether these various groupings can co-exist with each other, can form coalition governments, form a democratic

process or have one election after which there's no other election taking place. and it's in this general process where we can make an important contribution. >> rose: all right. the famous quote from condoleezza rice "for six years, my country, the u.s., pursued stability at the expense of democracy in this region. we achieved neither. now we are taking a different course. we are supporting the democratic aspirations of all people." when she said that, did you agree that? because it was an effort to push the mubarak administration to open itself up and to be more democratic in terms of the elections. >> it's the question... would i have supported her encouraging mubarak to have a more open administration? i would have agreed. if the question is do i agree with the proposition that the united states supported

stability rather than democracy i think this is there's an aspect of american self-flagellation. >> rose: this is from david brooks, sort of the same idea writing in the "new york times." "the foreign policy realists who say they tolerate authoritarian government for the sake of stability are ill-informed. the they're more fragile than any other form of government by far." >> well, i'm supposed to be a realist and you have never heard me say i prefer autocracy because it produces stability and this is not a fashionable thing to say. if you make this argument you would correctly say that if you get 30 years of stability in a country as important as egypt you haven't done all that badly. but the issue doesn't present itself in this manner that you

have stability. and the issue usually presents its that you have a huge array of problems and you don't know exactly what people are talking about when they say you should produce a democracy. if you could show there was a point in which you could have produced democracy in egypt and remember now i'm defending five administrations the issue is the nature of democracy, prevent that democracy from turning into a one or two-time election and the foreign policy altitude of the democratic government that emerges because we are a country that is entitled to have national security interests. >> rose: you seem to be saying something about the obama administration and how they see their interest here >> first of all, as you know, i have supported the obama administration's foreign policy and i want them to succeed. i'm concerned that there is a

danger of confusion confusing the process by which the change of government stays in place with a contest that has to take place after this. i do not think the administration will be in a position to put itself at the head of the true democratic parade around the world baby becoming too involved in the process of changing the governmental structure of egypt. in fact, i believe that if the process of changing the government is structured, it's not well-conducted. the more important contest that will come afterwards when the non-democratic and

anti-democratic forces begin to organize each other will become much more difficult to contest. right now the radical and extremist and jihadist forces want somebody to create the democratic space so that they can afterwards pursue their objectives, many of which are against our interests and in the process of moving towards a democratic system we should keep in mind that there are two separate efforts going on here. one how to guide the transformation from where we are to the departure of mubarak. this is a great of a qu months one way or the other, the second is how the to create in that process a structure in which a genuine democratic contest can

take place and in which we should have no illusions that we can co-opt all the radical and jihadist forces into the governmental structure at the beginning. >> rose: if mubarak was on the phone to you tonight saying henry, you're a wise statesman, you've seen governments come and go a lot of people want me to go now. i can hold out but do you think i should go now? what would you say? >> i don't think he should make that decision. >> rose: the president should not make the decision when he should go? who should make it? >> i think we should... the facts seem to be that the army will have to help guide that transition. it's the only national force

other than the muslim brotherhood that i know of as a national force so if... and therefore it's important for us not to get into a confrontation with the army while this process is going on. and i would think that we would be best advised to talk and we are probably doing this, to talk to a group of senior egyptians and see whether they will take the lead in forming this sort of a government. because it's only in the name of such a government that you can resist the radical elements that are bound. >> rose: they need to go and say to the president at some point, we think you should leave but we also want to... beyond that we want to say we think you should leave now or have to leave now but at the same time we believe it's imperative for us to do whatever we can to ensure there

is an all-encompassing decision? >> when we are the public advocate of the departure of a man with whom we worked for 30 years, whatever mistakes we may have made to prolong that period i would prefer for this emerge from an egyptian consensus encouraged by the united states and out of which emerges a genuinely democratic structure nobody asks or we should ask a question of what does the muslim brotherhood really stand for? we know their foreign policy views. they're uniformly hostile to the united states. so... >> but we can't control the foreign policy... the domestic

policy of a country like egypt. they represent, let's say, 20%, 25% of the public. i don't know what they represent. but they ought to be... should they not part of a process because they do have... >> well, it depends what you mean part of the process. they should have a chance at a free election and they should an opportunity to participate in an election it's not self-evident to me that they have to be part of the government. >> rose: i'm not saying part of the government, i'm saying part of the process... >> of course, they have to be part of the process and they have to be part of giving an opportunity to win the election, but we should not kid ourselves that if that process puts them into power the effect would be a huge transformation of the situation in the middle east that will directly affect american interests that's

inherent in the situation. they may come to power democratically, that does not change the impact of their victory. >> rose: suppose you were netanyahu. what would you be doing? >> rose: netanyahu should stay in close contact with us and he should not assert a position with respect to the domestic egyptian situation. he can only do damage to people he may want to support and encourage the people that he's trying to discourage i think he should avow his continued readiness to make peace with arab governments that are willing to make peace with israel. but otherwise i don't think that netanyahu should indicate an israeli participation or

influence on internal egyptian developments. >> rose: thank you for coming. pleasure to see you. captioning sponsored by rose communications captioned by media access group at wgbh access.wgbh.org