welcome to our program. i'm al hunt filling in for charlie rose on assignment in cairo that will begin tomorrow night. we begin with the reaction in washington with the unrested egypt with david sanger of "the new york times." >> i don't think we're going to see president mubarak go anywhere soon. so i think what you're going to see on the part of the administration is an effort to peel away his supporters one at a time. >> we continue with annette benning an academy award nominee. >> you're surprised when the camera is rolling and something different happens and that's something you want to plan. on the other hand you want to plan for the not planning of it.

>> we conclude with peter bergen with a new book the longest war. >> they've got a really bad set of ideas and this has become different. >> david sanger, annette benning and peter bergen, coming up. if you've had a coke in the last 20 years, ( screams ) you've had a hand in giving college scholarships... and support to thousands of our nation's... most promising students. ♪ ( coca-cola 5-note mnemonic ) maybe you want school kids to have more exposure to the arts. maybe you want to provide meals for the needy. or maybe you want to help when the unexpected happens.

whatever you want to do, members project from american express can help you take the first step. vote, volunteer, or donate for the causes you believe in at membersproject.com. take charge of making a difference. captioning sponsored by rose communications from our studios in new york city, this is charlie rose. >> again, i'm al hunt of bloomberg news filling in for charlie rose. he's on assignment in kay row

for -- cairo commencing tomorrow night. david sanger joins me now. he's chief correspondent of the new york times handling the crises in egypt. come under scrutiny for its mixed messages over the last couple weeks. in his most recent article from february 8, david writes that washington now appears to be, quote, putting stability ahead of democratic ideals, end quote. i'm very pleased to have david sanger with me here in washington. david, this has been an amazingly evolving story, not just in cairo but also in washington. what is the whitehouse doing now and how do they see it unfolding over there? >> al, one of the things that's made this so fascinating is that while president obama has faced foreign policy changes before, afghanistan, north korea, this is the first one that is coming at this whitehouse in real time. where they're having to adjust their rhetoric and positions to events they really can't

control. they're missing a whole lot of leverage. what i find most fascinating in my most recent conversations with whitehouse officials who are dealing with this, is that they now recognize that the american aid to egypt which is $1.5 a year isn't much leverage. much is in military equipment and most of the jobs back here. their real leverage at this point is the fact that the protesters still keep coming out in the street including today at the beginning of the rolling strikes around the country. and so now the obama administration finds itself in the odd position that in order to get to that stability that they cherish and to get to the elections that they need to have and the constitutional reforms, they really need the protesters to stay out on the street. they need to foment a good deal of instability in order to

ultimately reach -- that's also part of the strain that you've written about that's been there from day one between promoting stability as we have for 30 years in egypt in autocratic rules and promoting human rights and our values jeurks you've seen that from the very start. think about the first statement on the first day of the protests which were a little over two weeks ago, you saw secretary of state clinton step out and say egypt is stable and president mubarak is moving slowly toward reform. >> well days later that was all gone. by a week later you had the president step out and he said reform has to begin now. and when we asked the whitehouse press secretary the next day how they define now, he said now is yesterday. then by this weekend, what we're hearing is yes, the united states wants reform to happen fast. but as again secretary of state clinton said, we've seen times

in the past when revolutions have been hijacked by others. clearly a reference to iran 30 years ago. so they are torn between on the one hand trying to get president mubarak to step out of the way, trying to light a fire under those members of the government who would start this foreign process, and yet at the same time not wanting to get a situation going with what will spin out of control. >> david, does that suggest they have faltered some, they haven't gotten an occasion that this mixed message is a greater problem or renecks the fact that no one ants made or could have anticipated the events in the last couple weeks. >> i think it's a little bit of both. on the one hand many people knew sooner or later something would happen in egypt but nobody could predict the timing. the cia certainly didn't in their briefings to the president from everything that we've heard. but the egyptians didn't, as

well. there was the story going around of a group of about a dozen americans who after tunisia began to explode and after the tunisiaian leader has been ousted. they asked him could this happen here in egypt. and his answer or so several of them have told us is no, couldn't happen here, the tunisians showed weakness. well, this was 48 hours before it happened in egypt. >> it would appear that vice president biden has the suleiman account. what do that tell us how the administration is handling things over there with suleiman.

>> we've had many discussions about suleiman with the whitehouse. because it certainly seems as if he's the main channel. vice president biden has talked to him now i think three times. most recently yesterday and laid out a series of pretty specific demands, including that ending the emergency law which is in place for 30 years now immediately including that they stop the crack down on journalists, on ngo's, non-government organizations and dissidents and others. the whitehouse is not telling us what they're hearing back from mr. suleiman. what they are telling us is they're not satisfied with the kind of actions that the egyptians have taken. clearly their concern is that mr. suleiman who is a long-time associate of president mubarak is slow walking this. the message is if you let this

calm down and get people off the streets we'll proceed with the reforms. but look at this group they put together under president mubarak's own orders yesterday, directed by mubarak, organize a group of constitutional experts and judges, all of whom have been previously appointed by president mubarak, to come up with a pattern, a set of suggestions for constitutional reform. there were no outsiders or protesters in that group and part of the whitehouse is message is it's not that you have to invite the protesters in and serve them tea, you have to get them involved in what the reforms would look like, what the time tables. and so far the egyptian government has done none of that. when we asked the whitehouse the question if they don't do this, what if. the answer is well it's not to the united states to dictate outcomes here, we're just trying to guide a process. >> that goes back to again it

was so interesting 245 that our ledger is quite limited. there's a sense among some why haven't we done this or ordered that. is there a danger here pushing mubarak and suleiman too fast too hard? >> well certainly there are some who believe that and that's one of the reasons you haven't heard president obama come out and say directly that president mubarak should resign or step aside or any of those other scenarios that we wrote about over the weekend. some suggested it would be a great time for him to go to his summer home. others have said that he does a regular medical leave to germany would be time to really go out and make sure all the ail is are cured. >> he says he doesn't need it. >> he says he's fine and that the summer house seems to have plenty of people taking care of it. almost all of the suggestions that the u.s. has offered directly or indirectly to get him out of the process, he has

resisted. and i think right now the whitehouse is a little stymied because the more they push him the more he digs in. >> they want an orderly and expeditious way but on the other hand a quick outcome is probably impossible. >> not only impossible but some think ill advised and you heard secretary clinton say as much this weekend at the security conference at which she was speaking. where she talked about the need to allow the political space to happen. we've all seen what happens when elections happen too quickly. now, to those who worry about the muslim brother hood, the example of iran 30 years ago looms large. remember, the iranian revolution was led, of course, by islamic extreme forces. but many others in this society joined in to outs the shah and

then after about a year's time they were pushed out and it was then we saw the formation of the iranian -- >> so-called moderate iranian. >> right. and so we've had 30 years of continued troubled and tomorrow when you hear the threat assessment from the american intelligence officials who will be testifying in congress as an annual thing, you're going to hear a lot about the iranian nuclear program. and we're going to be reminded again that egypt isn't the only problem in the region. >> david, do you get any sense of how president obama has handled, what really is his first as you said earlier, hisçó first 3:00 a.m. call. can you give us any assessment how he's handling it, how he makes decisions. >> there are some things i found quite interesting in the way that he has kept his message consistent. for example. something that he said in his

cairo speech in 2009 was the united states should not be meddling in the formation of governments in the middle east or any place else. at that time he almost apologized for the american meddling in iran in the 1950's when the cia helped stage a coup. so consistently through this crises, he has been saying it's not for the united states to pick a leader. that's up to the egyptians to go do. but at the same time, out on the street, you're hearing many egyptians say well this is our moment of need. this is the time we need the united states to push mubarak out. and you can see the president sort of caught between not wanting to fit into the old model, you know. not so long ago, say 2003 that we shoved out a middle eastern leader. and trying at the same time to channel this energy without seeming to meddle. and i think this is the reason

they've had such a hard time calibrating their major. they've also made some mistakes along the way. secretary clinton's line, vice president biden, not willing to say that mubarak had been a dictator. well, most people who have seen how he's dealt with the opposition, wouldn't really have a hard time with that question. they have had to come around -- >> in every block. >> that's right. and opposition leaders who get dragged off to jail and just look at what has happened to so many journalists, egyptian judgists included in the -- journalists included in this. >> you have a crystal ball and that's tough to do. give us a sense how you think this is likely to play out over the next couple weeks and months. >> well, i don't think we're going to see president mubarak go anywhere soon. i think what you're going to see on the part of the administration an effort to peel away hi supporters one at a

time. it was a big moment last friday when the defense minister wandered into tahrir square, talked to the protesters and associated himself in some way with their cause. i think one of the things that's happened in the course of this protest is that the egyptian military, which has always been sort of the best respected institution in the country, has some gained stature and power. now i think that what you're going to see the whitehouse try to do is make more mubarak loyalists begin to walk away from him. and i suspect you're not going to hear the whitehouse even mention president mubarak's name unless they have to. now, that's one side of the strategy. the problem they face is, if the egyptian government add some point does another crack down on these protesters, determines that they can't operate, then i think that would change the dynamic and could well change the calculation of the whitehouse about whether or not they call for mubarak to leave.

>> well david sanger, as always interesting and insightful. we'll keep reading you to find out what's going on. thank you very much. we're going to take a short break, stick with us, we'll be back in just a minute. annette benning is here and aren't we happy. he's one of the most talented, beautiful and admired actresses working anywhere in the world today. "new york" magazine's david atle stein she illuminates a person's trying to desperately hold a match in place. here is a look at just some of her work. >> i have to tell you right away, i called a fellow i know in tulsa, the one who played my chauffeur, he said there's one that's made for us and a broker that just shut down. now, i can scrape up ten grand if i tried. i've got a couple aces in the

hole. i'm leaving and don't try to stop me. i should have gone the day i met you. >> where do you think you're going. >> wherever i feel like. >> some place where somebody knows something about a bank account. >> what fantasy have you concocted in your sick mind. why don't you ask. >> how much money do you have in that account in switzerland. >> why? do you want to sell me a few shares. >> you're a natural. >> i love shooting this gun. ♪ don't bring around a cloud to ring on my parade. >> now i understand you dilly dallying with phillip and young

ben. >> this is it to be, the old man with the young boy. >> a silly question i suppose, i know which one i'd choose. >> exactly where you are. >> i haven't finished with you. i want to know did he make a pause at you or did you make a pass at him. >> you wouldn't happen to have a cigarette, would you in. >> thanks. >> hey. >> does your mom know you spoke. >> no, and don't tell her. i do it so i won't eat. >> your weight is fine. >> i hate my body. i want to look like the models in the magazines. >> nobody looks like those girls, okay, not even them. >> charlie: annette benning received her fourth oscar

nomination for the film called the kids are all right and many critics think this might be the one that will win her the big prize. here is a look at the trailer. >> hey, don't be late. >> i know. >> come give us a hug before we go. >> hug her, that's what she's there for. >> are you talking more about taking that call. >> that could really hurt moms's feelings. >> my mom had your sperm. >> great. >> i get it. he's the biological father and all that crap. >> i never thought they'd use my stuff. >> why not? >> i didn't use it. >> first of all, ew. >> that's cool. >> now we can move on. >> i want to see him again. >> you do? >> you do? >> great to meet you. >> go easy on the wine.

>> okay. thanks for the micromanaging. >> i was the resident. >> jill had an emergency. >> my tongue was numb and i told her to relax and my tongue started working again. [laughter] >> oh my god. >> the plan was to limit his involvement. >> you're not going to ... >> he's not a father. >> he's our sperm donor. >> i see my kid's expression in your face. >> really. >> i feel like you're taking over my family. >> oh wow, okay. >> what's that look you're giving me. >> that's not my look, that's just my face. >> driving home on a motorcycle. >> that's something i don't allow. >> mom, i'm 18 years old judicial --

>> i just felt so far away from you. >> hey, i'm glad i did it. >> two people, year after year, sometime you stop seeing the other person. >> it's an unconventional family. >> charlie: i am very pleased to welcome annette benning back at this table. welcome. >> thank you so much for having me. >> my pleasure as you well know. >> thank you. >> charlie: annette benning and her husband, who will not be named. >> come on, charlie, you don't want to make him feel left how the. >> charlie: i missed the chance. you invited me to take you to the theatre tonight. how much i would have loved to have done that. >> i understand. >> charlie: you'll different me a rain check. >> i will, i promise. >> charlie: now he knows. >> he does know. that's a good way to tell him. >> charlie: this performance, of all the things you've done,

put it in some context. >> oh. thank you. putting it into context. i guess, i don't know. i loved the story and i felt a very intuitive connection to the story and to the character. and that's always the best part. that's the most important part for me is the intuitive part. and sometimes you have to take a long journey to get to that. and so this one -- >> charlie: what kind of journey do you have to take to get to that? >> well that's the bad news. if you have to kind of -- and you know we've all been there and certainly that's part of the job is sometimes if you don't have that kind of intuitive connectionçó then that's whether all of the stuff comes in where you do your research and you do your investigation and you do your biography owe -- or whatever it is that the actors do. and it's all very interesting to

me and i enjoy but the most important part is that gut level response. of course you only get one read of a script that's fresh. of that ... >> charlie: it's not fresh. >> exactly, you know what's going to happen.ñi so again, i felt very strongly about it right away. >> charlie: because it had all those qualities. >> because it had very good classic narrative structure. and you know that if you have that as an actor then you're just riding the wave because of course it's all you can do is to give what you have and then the director's going to put it together. but i knew that in the script as it existed, that there was a very strong arc to it. and i loved it and i thought it was kind of classic in form except they're two women who are partners. >> charlie: it's about family. it's about family. >> that's right. it's about family trying to stay together. >> charlie: they have all the problems everybody else does. >> they have a son and daughter and the daughter is about to go

away to college. they've never known who their donor dad was and we never sort of made that available. i think what we sort of decided with a that we had kind of not really dealt with it. and we didn't really want to deal with it. in the story, the moms. so the kids kind of sneak around and kind him. and then that's when the story really begins. >> charlie: when you work with someone like julian in this kind of role, does it require anything beyond professionalism? does it major it easy with someone who is as good as she is, who is as fanatical as she is. >> it makes it easy. it makes it easy because she's a pro and both of us have been married for a long time which i think helps, as has mark. >> charlie: right. >> so there was, yes, there was kind of an immediate just ease, i guess i would just call it ease.

and i liked the fact that -- >> charlie: did you think it might not be at ease. >> no. >> charlie: you didn't. >> no. and i knew she was already going to do it. they asked me to join the party, so i was asked in by lisa, the director and julian. >> charlie: didn't somebody send you an e-mail. >> yes. these pretty flattering right there. i knew we were off to a good start. and of course i admire her and have seen her in many movies. i'd met her but i didn't know her well. all of that just seemed very promising. >> charlie: now do you give lie to the fact there are not many great roles for people who are older than 30. >> well, i can't complain so i don't. >> charlie: exactly, that's my point. >> i'm very lucky. >> charlie: why is that? simply because of talent? what what what? >> i don't know. >> charlie: a lot of actors are jealous of you because you seem to get all of the good

ones. you and meryl. >> i don't know. i don't work often because i don't want to and for other reasons. so i don't know. i'm lucky, i guess. >> charlie: the happiest of times. >> yes. oh, yeah, absolutely. and i feel like i can really appreciate all of it much more. the older i get, the more i can appreciate the whole experience of being an actor and when something works. because of course we've all done things that don't work. so it's a pleasure and i do feel like i can really, you know, enjoyment moment more now. >> charlie: are you constantly i surprised what you can bring and it can bring to you. >> i wish i can say i'm constantly surprised. i'm talking about the context, the work. >> charlie: it surprises you. >> that's a beginning because of course you have to plan, you have to learn your lines.

it's a false situation, it's not, nonetheless what you're trying to fine is a moment of surprise when the camera's rolling. and you've even rehearsed and you've even done some takes or whatever that is and maybe something different happens. and that's not something you want to plan. on the other hand you want to plan for the not planning of it. >> charlie: let's talk about nick. you said that you understand her. >> yes. >> charlie: tell me who she is and why you understand. >> i love her. it's hard to describe. i thought that she was very, a very filled out character. that you got to see flaws in her. she's not an idealized person, she's a real person, really struggling. and i think too because i find her, i find her very sane. and i liked playing that. and i'd like to play it again. i don't know if there's going to be a sequel. >> charlie: oh, a sequel. >> i'm kidding. no, sane, yes. i mean i've played my share of

kind of more off-beat shall we say characters. i've also done the other. but i like this about her that she's a very grounded -- julian's the one with the sort of complicated secrets and problems in the story where i'm much more straighter in order and i love playing that. >> charlie: you're over bearing in some sense. >> that's not very nice to say about nick. i don't think she is. i do ask my children -- >> charlie: even might say up tight. >> you think she's up tight. >> charlie: no, but i'm saying a bit of that. >> she does ask her children to write thank you notes. thee true. she didn't get it right all the time, that's true. >> charlie: you're right. >> i don't know. i find her very sympathetic. >> charlie: sympathetic is one thing. what did you say, if i can get this, i can nail this? >> i didn't think of it that

way. no. >> charlie: what do you think of it? how do you think of it? >> well, i know it's about love and it's primarily about the incredible love between these, the two women. and then by extension their children. and that there's a discovery. that's what's fun about acting, is that i'm playing, we actors are playing people who are discovering things, who are having shocks, who are going through changes, who are evolving and learning and stumbling around. like we all do in our real lives. and that is fun to try to capture. >> charlie: all right. roll tape. here is one scene she just keyed up perfectly. here it is.

>> i was in the desert in baja, mexico. i was in the desert and -- >> what was the like there. >> beautiful. i was surfing but then there were no waves so we climb up into the mountains and i hear a rattler. it was a rattle snake. so i'm standing, i don't know.

>> true? >> all right. >> you have an unconventional family. >> charlie: that's a performance. >> thank you. >> charlie: what did you think watching it? >> i thought about a lot of things. i thought about actual me, i thought about the feeling in the pit of my stomach which was what i remember when i was shooting it particularly. yes, it's a moment of shock and just enaction. >> charlie: as an actor, do you call in that kind of feeling

on your inpath or do you say these are the emotions this person has and i know how to produce those emotions. >> i think in this movie we were shooting it very quickly because we had a low budget and we didn't have a lot of time. and that is a blessing in some ways. that can really, that's the other thing i was thinking about when i was watching it. there's a certain advantage to that in some ways. you don't have time to overthink it, you just have to go in and do it and that is a pleasure. and so then when you asked the question it makes me think of for instance versus doing a play where you're doing it eight times a week and maybe if the may is a success you're doing it over a long period of time. that what you have to call on to find those moments become so different whereas if you're doing a movie and certainly this movie where we had to shoot it quickly, the more intuitively that you can find what is happening, the better for you as an actor. i should just see for myself.

so i didn't, i didn't have to think about it. i didn't, and if you don't have to, it's better. so i didn't, i just, i knew also that the story was very chong and -- strong and i knew it was a well placed story. lisa who directed it, she's very simple with the camera and i mean that in the most wonderful way. she doesn't cause attention to herself as a director. she's constantly just focused on the event, what's happening. >> charlie: she delivers. >> right. and so when she moves the camera, which is probably one of the only times in the movie that she moved the camera, she's moving the camera in that scene and she's of enormous help to me as a actor and so that's part of movie acting i actually really enjoy. the camera can really help and

really do so much for you in terms of helping illustrate the phone. >> the moment. >> charlie: in this film, what was it, capturing -- >> it's like lace work. movies are so delicate. they're all about detail. it's about little turns and moments and list things and hearing something and breathing. so in that way, it's sort of frightening because it is so ephemeral. >> charlie: this is what act's about. remember the last piece we just saw. now watch this. >> hey, so you have the whole asai crazy. >> they push them like crash. >> jule is so addicted to it, she buys it by the case. >> here's what i do, throw it in the blender with frozen

strawberries hemp milk. >> excuse me, but i can't hemp milk and organic farming. if i hear one more person -- >> do you know we're composting now. it turns into mulch. i can't, i can't do it. >> hey babe, how about some green tea. >> do you know, jules, i like my wine. and do you know what red wine has something in it that helps the human life span. >> if you drink a hundred glasses a day. >> charlie: there you go. what's different about that as

an actor. >> different than? >> charlie: how you saw that. here is this wonderful humorous rant. >> that was one we actually worked on a lot and lisa who wrote it together and then we talked a lot about this rant. it was also our first day of shooting so of course one's always more nervous. but we talked a lot about what do you want to rant about. we all kind of brain stormed about what a rant about. so it was very satisfying. >> charlie: so in this film in the end which got huge reviews, really very positive reviews as you know and your performance, you've been nominated which is an experience you know very well for being nominated. why do you think it's resonated. >> well i hope it's because it's true, i hope. >> charlie: it's true about relationships and many family. >> and there's something recognizingable there and it's not overly earnest which was very important to me and all of

us making the picture, not to make it an earnest movie. >> charlie: to not make it a message film but about family period. jealousy and rage. >> and maybe a fewer people who watched the movie maybe they're seeing something they haven't seen before and this is a different kind of family than they've seen. but then they say oh it's just like every other family. so i hope that that's part of it. i mean the most important thing is it's a good movie. and it's entertaining and i love it. i'm very proud of it. >> charlie: that's what you all set out to do. >> maybe we'll open a few minds and that's a good thing. >> charlie: so people without you intending to do people will watch what happens there and say these are real people and therefore i understand, i have a better understanding of same sex and have a better understanding of relationships and a better understanding of what marriage can be regardless of your ... >> right. and raising children and what that means and dealing with kids who are growing up.

yes. i love that. i love that there's a kind of normalcy about it and yet it is, it's a modern family. >> charlie: i will never forget. he's told it to other people but he told me too. when your husband decided that he wanted, needed was going to marry you. it was such an overwhelming impact for him. he pulls the car off the side of the road after coming down the canyon and said holy, my life is about to change. and boy did it change. >> we've been together 20 years now. so what i'm reflecting on a little bit lately is just that we have a very private relationship and a very public world that we've been able to sort of help each other in that

way. and certainly right now he's so supportivend we're having a lot of fun. we're having a lot of fun with all of this. >> charlie: and the fact you're out there one row after another. >> he's very proud. >> charlie: of you. >> yes. >> charlie: oh. >> we do like to talk about the work and we do that but we have such full lives away from that, that i guess the benefits begin to accrue in terms of being together a long time and being as i said a public couple in many ways. but more importantly is our private world which is now 20 years old, which is, we are both very grateful for. >> charlie: it's wonderful to see you. >> thank you. it's great to be here. >> charlie: it's an extraordinary performance and i'm so sorry i can't go to the

theatre because i just wanted to go home and call him and say annette and i just came back and it was a wonderful theatre but we missed it and we'll do that in los angeles. >> i hope so. >> charlie: annette benning a great performance "the kids are all right" nominated best actress. peter bergen is here, a journalist and writer having reported on al-qaeda and other extremist groups around the world for over a decade. one of the few have interview osama bin laden in 1997. his newest book the long us war the enduring conflict between america and al-qaeda i'm pleased to have peter bergen back on this program. welcome. >> thank you very much. >> charlie: where is the battlefield for the conflict between al-qaeda and the united states? >> that's a very good question. the specific place where it's

taking place every day is in pakistan. obama has ordered three more ground strikes than george bush in his entire time in office. it's the continuities between obama and bush. >> charlie: that's not that many. >> there aren't that many members of al-qaeda or afghanistan or pakistan but there are 200 members of al-qaeda on 9/11. this has been a pretty small organization. >> charlie: at the time of 9/11 they had a group of 200 member. >> the waive we define membership, swearing a personal oath or allegiance to bin laden. you don't swear allegiance to al-qaeda you swear allegiance to

bin laden himself. >> charlie: where does that come from? >> the phrase in arabic is buy out which is an old idea an islamic ruler you swear oath of allegiance. the numbers of al-qaeda have always been small. i think it's a bit of red herring to just focus on the numbers because the strength of al-qaeda is to have a group for these ideas. so you see itself as an elite group that's trying to influence other people. the good news is that more and more muslims are turning againt it. that's beginning to change. >> charlie: the afghan star war. >> even 9/11 to some degree, a certain amount that america was got what it deserved. that was not an uncommon view. hour now that so many muslims

are the victims of al-qaeda whether this saudi arabia or jordan or iraq or afghanistan, they've killed a lot of muslims. so the suicide in al-qaeda is dropping pretty precipitously. >> charlie: is there a reason why we have not had a suicide. >> i think it's common sense. why hasn't there been an american suicide attacker, something in the water and the united states doesn't persuade people to do this, perhaps. but something in the environment. but we have americans commit suicide in other countries now. for instance in somalia, two young men from minneapolis conducted a suicide attack recruited by affiliates in al-qaeda and recruited operations in somalia. once it happens over seas it's not impossible it can happen over here. >> charlie: what does it say to al-qaeda and osama bin laden.

>> the al-qaeda and peninsula is a -- >> charlie: it is a wholly owned subsidiary. this isn't some mosque that's chud in the language and rhetoric of osama bin laden but in a sense he's teaching his own message even more vehemently, say. >> these groups, you know, there's to form of pledge of allegiance to al-qaeda. even though bin laden isn't picking up the phone and telling them what to do. it's operating very much in a way bin laden would want hem to act for instance trying to below up an american airline on christmas day 2009. and of course bin laden himself hails from yemen. the peninsula -- they give him strategic guidance. they don't need to hear from him directly and they do his bidding. >> charlie: what's the

biggest misc)t(osama bin laden. >> i think some of the misconceptions are, one very common one early on after 9/11 was he was at war with us because of our freedoms and yet there are hundreds of thousands of words in the public record from bin laden, he's very silent about the supreme court, alcohol, drugs, tolerance for feminism, homosexuality. he doesn't care about cultural issues. >> charlie: he cares about what. >> he cares about our foreign paul z -- policies. he wants us the united states to get out of the muslim world. it's a practical matter that 9/11 was designed to do that but it back fired. because we now occupy two muslim countries. the authoritarian regime is replaced and we're in the middló east like the saudis and egyptians we are closer to having a common goal making sure

bin laden and his followers don't take control of these countries. >> charlie: are they in the same place or separate places as far as anybody knows? >> well i talked to a number of people in the u.s. government who wake up every morning thinking about this question and they think they are in separate places which i think makes sense. we know from historical examples that when they separate, they don't want to be in the same place and both be captured or killed in the same place. my personal view is the number two in al-qaeda is one of the things i try and deal with in the book is commonly he's regarded the brains of billion law and i think that has been over done. at the end of the day, al-qaeda was founded by bin laden. 9/11 was bin laden's idea, essentially. he didn't fly in his deputies until the end of the game. he's not a world historical figure like bin laden positioned

himself to be. >> charlie: is that likely through the officials you talked to. >> actually they tend to say the following. that if bin laden died, it would create a succession crises within the group. he's not regarded as a natural leader even people in his former group. so one of the many reasons it will be good to capture or kill bin laden is it would create this kind of crises of leadership. now he is not going to be able to, he may be able to take over the organization but he would likely drive it to the ground. one other wild card here is bin laden has 11 sons. at least one of whom is already been quite involved in al-qaeda and obviously having the bin laden family name with a lot of credibility. if you look at this part of the world every regime is a hereditary regime and al-qaeda could become a hereditary organization. >> charlie: because of the increased presence perhaps on the ground of cia operatives

that somehow that it is likely when you look at the forced component, notwithstanding the region, that they will find him, osama bin laden. >> by the law of averages, they will find him. here's the problem. one very important thing that people watching this broadcast may find surprising. bin laden is going to celebrate his 54th birthday. he doesn't have any life threatening diseases. >> charlie: there is no kidney dialysis machine. >> no. this was sorts of wishful thinking. he's going to be around for a hong time. we think he's in the tribal regions of pakistan. that's like saying i know somebody's in virginia. it's not a very good place. imagine it's just a bunch of mountains and -- >> charlie: generally when they do make a discovery like

this, it is one intelligence and scrutiny. >> right. >> charlie: intense cruit -- scrutiny. and in the end somebody gives him up. >> there's a limited number of people who know where he is and they're not going to give him up. >> charlie: not give him up specific with that intent but give up the idea that somebody came through here and so it puts the trail hotter. >> i agree with that. the united states has much better assets in this area. >> charlie: and better technology. >> and better technology than we had in 06. and what, you know, if you remember the intelligence community what they're looking for, they're looking for anomalies. either they or their informants are looking for anomalies. for instance bin laden is very

attached to horses. he's been obsessed by them at an early able. somebody has a lot of nice horses or something like that is the thing that can tip you off. so you know, by the law of average he will be found, i think. however it is not impossible to think he will just die. >> charlie: is it possible that he's not somewhere else. >> i doubt it. that is a six foot five guy. he's unusually tall. he's as tall as you are. and alley he's extremely well-known person. so the idea he will be hiding in a big city i think is unlikely. >> charlie: with respect to afghanistan and pakistan and what's happening on the border and the taliban and having a safe haven. there's much much debate and has been debate and continues to be debate about whether what at to be a counter insurgency or counter terrorism. where do you come down to that

in your own knowledge and reporting. >> i think we should do more than a simple kind of terrorism. >> charlie: which is nation building. >> at the end of the day it is. you're trying to build up something, some semi functional state in afghanistan. and the reason i say that is the united states has some history in afghanistan already but you can look at them and make some assumption. after the most successful campaign in history with the so yufts, we closed our industry and were essentially blind. first the taliban and then al-qaeda. that's when we did nothing. then the george w. bush administration and because of a illogical rebuilding -- we got what we paid for and sendly the taliban is back. so we've already done nothing, we've already done it on the cheap. i think the obama administration

and by the way one of the most reported stories over the last year is the fact that bin laden -- the fact that the obama administration has put december 14th on the clock. that's much bigger than the discussion -- >> charlie: it was precipitated by the nato meeting. >> this is interesting was they sort of announced it at the nato meeting but they've been thinking about it. they indicated it at 2014. but i was just in afghanistan in december. the afghans were freaking out this idea we were going to leave them in july 2011. thousand we've signaled the afghans that it's the pakistanis and everybody in the region until december 14th in a series way. >> charlie: where is your assessment of the cia and where they are today. >> if the cia was a private corporation, i say cia, intelligence community at large in the united states. since 9/11 we spent half a trillion dollars. they don't know where osama bin

laden or the leader of the taliban is. >> charlie: that's a difficult thing to do. >> it is a difficult thing to do. if you're spending that amount of money it's like the results, you know, were not so incredibly capable people who work in intelligences community. >> charlie: are you suggesting that it leads t this idea they spent more money they would have been able to find osama bin laden. >> i think they're recruiting the wrong people. the people that get into the agency, i mean the background check precludes people for instance who got lots of foreign friends or spent lots of time in a foreign country. that's exactly the kind of people to recruit if you want to find bin laden. you go to a lot of intelligence agencies like working into an accounting firm tends to be pretty white bread. it's not the kind of people that's going to find bin laden and other people being recited now. if we were in an existential fight with al-qaeda the

intelligence community would have a different stance. when we were fighting the nazis they took huge amounts of risks, these people spoke lots of languages. >> charlie: right. so you're optimististic. >> am -- al-qaeda it's not because we're winning, they've got a really bad set of ideas. the caveat is that small groups of people can continue to do damage. look at the bottom line of a afghan in the 1970's. >> eventually. >> eventually, yes. >> charlie: the book's called the longest war, the enduring conflict between america and al-qaeda. captioning sponsored by rose communications captioned by media access group at wgbh access.wgbh.org