gwen: going behind the scenes in the republican primary contest. reading inside the surprising new polls and taking apart the plot to assassinate the saudi ambassador. tonight on "washington week." one candidate stumbles. >> six years to be working on a plan. i've been in this for about eight weeks. gwen: and another one soars. >> the 9-9-9 plan that i have proposed is simple, transparent, efficient, fair and neutral. can you name all 59 points in your 160-page plan? gwen: and another hangs in there. >> simple answers are always very helpful but oftentimes inadequate. gwen: while the man they want to be takes on congress instead. >> the republicans haven't given a good answer as to why they have not agreed to wanting

to rebuild our roads, our bredges and our schools. -- our bridges and our schools. >> we've offered to work with the president but the president has chose to campaign instead of govern. gwen: and iran is front and center in a mysterious new plot targeting the saudi abian ambassador. >> you got to think if you're going after a saudi ambassador here, what about a saudi ambassador there or an israeli ambassador there? or an american ambassador? gwen: covering the week, karen tumulty of "the washington post." michael duffy of "time" magazine. alexis simendinger of real clear politics.com. and james kitfield of "national journal." >> award winning reporting and analysis. covering history as it happens. live from our nation's capital this is "washington week." produced in association with "national journal." corporate funding for

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one line, infinity possibilities. >> corporate funding is also provided by boeing. additional funding is provided by the annenberg foundation, the corporation for public broadcasting, and by contributions to pbs stations from viewers like you. thank you. once again, live from washington, moderator gwen ifill. gwen: good evening. another week, another candidates debate and another frontrunner in the republican presidential primary campaign. this time, it's herman cain. the former pizza c.e.o. and former chairman of the kansas city federal reserve who is turning the race upside down on the strength of his approach to tax reform, 9-9-9. >> it starts with unlike your proposals throwing out the current tax code. continuing to pitch ot off the current tax code -- pivot off the current tax code is not going to boost this economy.

gwen: last month's leader, texas governor rick perry appears to be fading. >> what americans are interested in is not the best debater, not the slickest politician. they're interested in a leader that looks them in the eye and says listen, here's how to get this country working again. gwen: and the immediate beneficiary from all this, former massachusetts governor mitt romney. >> america is in crisis. you want to have someone who's smart, who has experience, who knows how the financial services sector works, who knows how to protect american jobs, and i do, i've done it. gwen: so we're beginning to see the outline of this campaign. karen tumulty was one. questioners at this week's dartmouth debate. who surprised you there, karen? >> i think personally, the biggest surprise was rick perry. because i think the stakes were very, very high. and a lot of us, certainly the three of us who were sitting at the table as moderators, expected him to come in aggressively. the day before, he had released a really hard-edged video

against mitt romney talking about health care. we were expecting that the minute the subject turned to health care, he was just going to take out after him. and the opposite happened. it was -- you said he faded. it was almost like he disappeared. gwen: there were long periods of time, true of jon huntsman as well. but long periods of time when you expected this guy who had come out of the gate so fast to finally take charge. especially since everyone has said he hasn't done well in debates before but it kind of didn't happen. >> and it wasn't like he wasn't given the opportunities. and obviously herman cain was just reveling in his -- in his new stature in the race. and mitt romney, though, is -- a republican operative had said to me earlier this week, it's like this guy is going to win the indy 500 at 35 miles an hour. just by not running into the guard rails. and i think that's what he did. it was also -- one moment that i thought was really interesting, though, was the first question i asked them was

about anger at wall street c.e.o.'s. and i asked the question, you know, does it seem right that three years after the financial meltdown, you know, none of these wall street executives has been prosecuted? and every single one of the candidates that i asked basically said, you know, this is washington's fault. and they were looking at this "time" magazine poll that came out a couple of days later, you know, they're setting themselves against the opinion of 71% of the american people. in sort of on the one hand, the tea party movement is -- and it's something that grew out of public anger. but it's really interesting how reluctant these republicans are to associate themselves with kind of this wave of populist anger. gwen: that is interesting. and in fact, i was hoping michael, might tell us about not only the "time" magazine poll but a lot of polls showed herman cain in particular taking advantage of whatever this is out there for now and

surging to the top of the polls. >> that's right. no matter which poll you choose, they all reveal something kind of constant which is that with just a few months to go before the voting starts, a good portion of the kind of traditional republican primary electorate hasn't really found someone they want to get married to. they're still shopping around. and it's kind of the same group of voters that has landed on herman cain at the moment that was kind of took a look at donald trump, dated michelle bachmann and gave rick perry a bit of a turn earlier in the month and let's take a look at herman cain. i think that will -- stay there until either stands up to the scrutiny or doesn't. i kine of felt the scrutiny started when can throw a good fastball and good curveball and unpacked a changeup to cain in her first question. tell me, mr. cain, who are your economic advisors? he talked about he was transparent. but he named a guy who was from cleveland and from cleveland, texas, because in ohio, cleveland texas.

gwen: rich lowery was even more confusing because that's the name of a columnist. >> and really an accountant. and that's the question. and who are your advisors? not as transparent as he claims to be. the scrutiny that attended the previous folks who had the hot hand is now coming to herman cain. >> if we were looking at this discussion and trying to figure out why they're not relating to the populism, there are very much feeling that they have to come up with some sort of economic jobs ideas. what is the new rick perry plan? >> i guess -- gwen: he kept talking about energy. >> yeah. and it's so -- governor perry did give a speech today in pennsylvania where he unveiled what he said was going to be the first installment of his economic plan. but what it actually was was pretty much garden variety republican, you know, drill more, derek late -- deregulate.

and he argues that he can very quickly create a million jobs just by issuing executive orders that would deregulate oil and open up more drilling. gwen: go ahead. >> i was going to say, i thought this day was different in other respects. i was expecting them to continue to criticize the president and there was a lot of that in this debate. but four or five of these and gotten closer together and we get closer to the voting, they're beginning to engage with each other i think in a way we hadn't seen. and criticize each other's plans when newt gingrich asked i think romney why his various parts of his tax plan really don't extend to the rich and he isn't providing some. same benefits, i really saw a level of conversation that we hadn't seen before. in these four or five, eight, nine, 10-person debates. and i think the awed indianses are growing -- the audiences are growing and drilling down in a way they hadn't four or five weeks ago. >> 9-9-9, does your poll suggest the people understand what it means? obviously it means very simple

and it seems kind of pat. but i'm curious whether people actually understand what it means. >> that's what herman kayrn said is the best -- herman cain said is the best thing. >> the same rate for corporate taxes, personal taxes and sales taxes. higher taxes for poor people and lower tax for rich people who have -- the affluent the middle class would be a mess and depends on what kind of things you bought. both conservative and liberal economists have criticized this as vastly insufficient to the problem. but it has the beauty of being simple to understand. that was another great moment when he said, i have my experts, well, we've seen what the experts can do to the economy. what's wrong with something that comes from a simpler place. gwen: herman cain reminds me of a cross between ross perot, the outcider, steve forbes, the flat tax, and -- >> and national chairman. gwen: and alan keyes who was a

very good speaker. and really could capture crowds. does he have more than that? does he have money? does he have structure? >> it will be interesting to see going forward. because at this point, he doesn't -- he has virtually no campaign structure around him. in fact, he's had a whole bunch of his advisors who were with him at the beginning have since quit. he has relatively little money. and he doesn't do the kinds of things that you kind of have to do to get through the primary season. like getting your name on the ballot and other things. it will be very interesting to see whether this candidate has the organizational wherewithal to really push forward. >> does moving up the calendar, is there -- as that are talking about, help him or hurt him? who does that sort of hurt or help in terms of where they are at this point? >> i don't really know quite frankly who that hurts or helps. so many of these people like -- you look back at the great

howard dean phenomenon where he was just at the peak and always going to depend on what part of the trajectory that are at. but certainly two candidates have the money to slog it through a long campaign season. and those two candidates are mitt romney and rick perry. gwen: we have barely talked about mitt romney which tells you something. because he's the putative frontrunner. and some people believe -- a lot of experts believe he's going to end up being the nominee. but he's got really soft numbers. i mean, he's never got -- risen very high. and he seems stuck there. >> usually at this point, there is a republican frontrunner who has -- cracked 40% in the polls. and he's still stuck in 20%. but i do think you saw a few things begin to kind of move his way. he still hasn't won the hearts of the republican base. but he's starting to pick up the endorsements of the republican establishment. a big one this week, the day before the debate, was new

jersey gotch chris chris -- governor chris chris can i. a heartthrob -- >> he had this conference call to spend 25 minutes telling reporters how he had so many positions on so many different issues. that tells you that the white house for its part has decided two things. he's likely to be the nominee. and it's worried that the other republicans aren't able to lay a glove on him. they thought they would be able to cut him up a little bit more by now. and they're saying maybe we have to step up and do some of that ourselves. gwen: the white house also in your poll, in the head-to-head matchups again each of these republicans, the president still is narrowly ahead. even though we know not even a dime will get you nothing, it will get you nothing. but the point is the president still, relatively compared to the people who might be running against, is not completely out of this yet. even though his disapproval numbers are huge. >> his approval rating fell to

44%. four points less than in june. he is three points ahead in our poll which is in the margin of error. like nine, 10, 11 against perry and cain. the key thing to watch, two really, one, independent voters. romney does better in our poll. which is a worry spot for the white house. on the other hand, women are by dramatic margins on his side still. 49-41. gwen: on whose side? >> the president's side. if you compare the president with perry or herman cain, that doubles. so that's a key constituency and will probably see him talk to them more. gwen: ok. well, one of the women who was really tough on him the or neat was our karen tumulty -- him the other night was our karen tumulty. we are proud. you were great. while the republicans were busy fighting over the campaign calendar and fighting each other, the president was jockeying for position with congress. at stake, who gets bragging rights for at least trying to create jobs? for this week at least, nobody. the senate is expected to

reject the president's jobs bill. but it seems that the fight for the upper hand is just beginning. is that right? >> it seems glacial. but yes. in a way, it is beginning. in a new sort of phase. and that is that the president is believing very strongly that you can win actually by losing. you can watch your legislation be locked in the senate. and you can still argue effectively to the american public. and they're seeing in some of these polling inching up some support. not necessarily for the obama plan. but for ingredients within the plan. there's absolutely widespread support for taxing millionaires. there is public support for elements of the jobs plan. so the president believes if he was starting to lose with independent voters or lose with his base by trying to compromise, which interestingly in your survey, overwhelmingly the public says they love the idea of compromise. gwen: people always say that.

89%. >> but in fact, leadership sometimes looks like strength. and you can win by confrontation. and so the president has -- is trying something new for him. which is you in congress, you go work it out. i've told you what i stand for. this is what i stand for. and i'm going to go out and campaign for this. which he's doing very actively. this week he will be in virginia, north carolina, he's going to all the bellwether states at the end of the month, he will be on the west coast going back to major parts of the west where he feels that he has support and needs support. so this idea of confrontation is also the white house's thinking that they see in the republicans their eagerness in the house and senate to say yes, we have a jobs plan. oh, yes, we have a jobs plan and to outline ingredients, very broad ingredients, that they're starting to sweat just a little bit. >> alexis, do you think by the end of the year arrives there will be a jobs bill? or a piece of one? or pieces? >> the expectation seems to be that if anything could possibly go through, it might be the

extension of unemployment benefits, perhaps something related to infrastructure, maybe, maybe. speaker boehner has suggested that yes, it -- gwen: they had a good conversation about it yesterday apparently. >> not so great. the speaker called the president of the united states -- the president called the speaker to say thank you very much for passing the trade, the three trade bills. and the speaker used that as an opportunity to give him a piece of his mind. and then broad cast to all the media the piece of his mind he had shared with the president which was let's -- let me set this back straight. we have a jobs plan. we will work with you on certain things. quit going out there saying that we're not doing that. so there are -- i would say the extension perhaps of some payroll benefit that -- the tax holiday, the unemployment and maybe something on infrastructure. we might, might see. and if we don't see any of that, no one will be shocked. >> but in the meantime, just in time for your holiday shopping, we're running into the supercommittee and its recommendations. how has -- how has all -- are

these just completely separate events? are they going to end up all tangled up? where do they end? >> there is republican thinking that we should -- whiz right by the -- go right into the supercommittee which is about deficit reduction and spending and tax reform. and there is some desire to do that. in the white house and among democrats, they're arguing that the president should keep these very separate. stay above this fray. stay out of the congressional arguments about this. let them work this out. because by november 23, as you point out by thanksgiving, they're supposed to be a plan. the president is supposed to react to this in some form or fashion. and the two could be in a total mashup. but the democrats are thinking the way the president will profit, especially among the public, and especially among independent voters, is to start -- try to stay above that. it's hard to imagine how they don't get conflated in some form or fashion. that argument going back into deficit reduction is just a nest of snakes in terms of the kinds of arguments they're all

going to be in again. >> if that committee can't reach its target and the see quest racial is threatened, -- squeft racial is -- sequestration -- gwen: everyone agrees cutting the pentagon is a bad idea. democrats and republicans are saying that. >> and certainly the secretary of defense, leon panetta, has been arguing floresfully. that's an -- and a reminder of what the poison is and try to reach a deal. that may happen. the other horrible alternative is that congress could just come back and say, let's just ignore it all. let's ignore it. >> and all these cross-the-board cuts just go into effect. >> no. let's ignore the fact that we have this law that would say do this. gwen: ignore it all. >> yes, exactly. gwen: oh, joy. ok. well, we move on. the obama administration laid out the details of an extraordinary plot this week.

it involved iran's elite quds force, a used car dealer in the united states, a mexican drug cartel, and a plan to assassinate saudi arabia's ambassador to the united states. it was a spectacular scheme. and it has once again ratcheted up the already tense relations with iran and raised more than a few questions here at home as well. not least of which was this for real? >> it certainly sounds like a hollywood script. gwen: in fact, i think that's how the f.b.i. director used that term. >> and you got to believe that some fire beneath the smoke because of who's blowing the smoke. it's the president, it's the secretary of state. it's the f.b.i., the head of the f.b.i. so i think there is something here. but it's a very strange plot. it's not characteristic of past quds force plots. they elicited help from this iranian american who basically like you said was a used car dealer. pretty shady character. didn't really have any sort of

expertise. and -- in counterespionage or espionage and he approaches what he thinks is a mexican cartel agent and turns out to be a d.e.a. informant. it has a keystone cops feel to it. gwen: but the quds force, the air presence in this is what has everybody's attention. who are they? >> the quds force is the paramilitary wing of the revolutionary guard in iran. basically run their support to terrorist groups, extremist groups all around the world. they have a very nasty history of doing very nasty things. they were behind the bombing of the marine barracks in the early 1980's. the kidnappings of americans in lebanon that led to death and captivity of a c.i.a. station chief. they were behind bombings in south america in 1994. the khobar tower bombing of the u.s. service members in saudi arabia in 1996. so there you have a very nasty history with us. and more recently, they have been arming shia militias in iraq and even the taliban who were their sworn enemies. just so they can kill more american soldiers in afghanistan. so they -- they have been a

problem for a long time. but this is kind of an escalation. >> the iranian inspired or paid for attack on u.s. soil would be a significant increase in intensity and, you know, threat. what we've seen from them before. why would they want to kill the saudi ambassador here? >> there is an increasingly hot cold war going on between the saudis and iran pretty much cooked off by the whole arab spring situation. it has destablized the whole region. anyone sitting on their throne in the middle east feels very threatened. the saudis thought the iranians were behind a lot of the shia protests in bahrain. and didn't appreciate that. and sent their troops into bahrain. the iranians think that the saudis have been too quick to call for the assad to step aside in syria. their chief ally. so really in a proxy war and it's becoming very serious. so that would be their motivation. again, actually doing it on american soil would be a significant escalation and it would cross a very serious red line that president bush laid

down. if you support a terrorist attack on u.s. soil, it's an act of war basically. >> this is the kind of thing that would normally i think invite a military response. and you heard, i don't think anybody credible, talking about that as an option this week. what exactly are the u.s.'s options in responding to this? >> there aren't very many and that's the problem. no one wants to start a third war and a third front in the middle east right now. that's the last thing we basically need. however, we have -- we have no economic relationship with iran. we have slapped them with about as strong of sanctions as we've seen in the last 20 years. so not -- it's not a lot of appetite in the international community to go further. so there's not a lot you can do. unless you wanted to shoot in some cruise missiles like clinton did after the bombing of the u.s. embassies in africa or after i think did when he -- the plot to kill bush 41, became apparent that he shot

some cruise missiles. i don't think this president has that in mind. they want to use this as further synergy to build an international coalition to isolate iran. >> james, we heard as white house correspondents that the president first knew about this in june. is there a story to tell about why now? why would this have been organized in this way and now? >> well, this gets to the keystone aspect of it. there has been a power struggle going on inside iran between the supreme leader who is ayatollah khomeini and ahmadinejad. should get his name by now. and he's on his way out, i think. there's a lot of intrigue going on in iran. could this be a rogue element trying to embarrass him in some way or embarrass the supreme leader? the best explanation i've heard because again, this is -- even the iranians know this is a pretty serious red line they're crossing. you can't imagine -- on the other hand, anything that the

quds force does this big usually has to be green lighted by the supreme leader. so that's why the obama administration is saying we think it went to the highest levels. so it's hard to know but there is introog going on between those two -- but there is intrigue going on between those two. sgl and what we're willing to do about it -- gwen: and what we're technology do about it. we're done here but the conversation will continue online on our "washington week" webcast extra. we'll post it at 11:00 p.m. eastern standard time. keep up with daily developments with me on the pbs newshour all week and we'll see you again here next week on "washington week." good night. every thursday, get a preview of our topics and panel with our "washington week" email alert. available at washington week online at pbs.org. washingtonweekonline@pbs.org. funding for "washington week" is provided by -- >> we know why we're here. >> to connect our forces to

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