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and with the ongoing support of these institutions and foundations. and this program was made possible by the corporations of public broadcasting. and by contributions to your pbs station. from viewers like you. thank you. there were more than 1,700 precinct meetings in this state of iowa, more than 800 locations around the state tonight, grant, and i just returned from one of them in johnson middle school, just outside of december moins, i can tell you the turnout was around 250 voters, maybe a little more than that, we saw some people there signing up and registering as republicans for the first time, most people there, already registered as republicans, it took them a long time to get through the line to get registered, once they were in there, we saw there was craig romney, the son of mitt romney, there was someone to speak for ron paul and for rick santorum but no one there to speak for

michele bachmann or for newt gingrich and we weren't able to stay long enough to find out about rick perry, the crowd was polite and applauding, i would say it wasn't unruly, but this was the kickoff, and so there was naturally some air of exienlt there tonight. >> well, you were there. what kind of neighborhood, what kind of community was it that you were visiting? what kinds of people did you see at this caucus? this is a middle class suburban area, i guess you could call it a suburb of december moins, the people here wouldn't want to call it a suburb, it is its own city, the population is around 19,000 people, i was at print one, with, precinct school, the other precincts were at other schools and i believe a church where there was also a caucus held tonight, they were all, i would say, middle-aged to younger adults, they were men,

women, pretty quiet as they arrived, there was about lot of bustling or pushing and shoving, everybody was respectful of everyone else, and when craig romney spoke, the audience, everybody, the folks at the caucus applauded very vigorously for him just as they did for the woman who spoke for ron paul, so it was difficult from listening to that and watching that to tell where it will come down, but i just want to emphasize this is one caucus site, one-third of one precinct, or rather one precinct, one caucus site in the state, so it is hard to draw any broader conclusions but it definitely gives you a different sense of how votes are cast, for instance, when we were in new hampshire, primary state, we will see people going quietly and cast their votes in secret and certainly not applaud speakers, while they are trying to do it. >> it is very different in iowa. >> well, that's right. and they applauded when they were

finished, the man who was the chairman of this particular caucus, at johnson middle school had told me ahead of time they expected around 400, he said some people are thinking 700 voters in precinct 1 are going to show up, by my count and i tried to count everybody there i got to about 250, maybe give or take. but, yes, he calls, he first called and said we will do this alphabetically, does anybody, anybody here to speak for michele bachmann, no one spoke up, there was silence, he said a few words describing her and moved on to new niewt gingrich and as i mentioned the speakers for the other candidates but you are right, guinn, these voters in the end are going to be signing a piece of paper and express ago view one way or another, and, you know, putting themselves out on the line for the sake of their party. >> have there been any predictions that have been made by the republican party or any -- either of the big parties about what turnout will be like

today, tonight? >> they have been very careful about that, guinn, i talked to a number of republican officials here and nobody wants to be on the record or frankly even off the record, they had a turnout of about 119,000 people in the 2008 election, considerably fewer than the democratic caucuses in 2008, and they were very much hoping for a bigger turnout in 2012, we have no way of negative yet tonight whether the turnout will be bigger, i think it is fair to say they will be disappointed if it is much smaller, but they did not want to be out on a limb predicting a number. >> well, the weather report says it is not snowing in december in moins, des moines and a good night to come out and vote if you are going to do such a thing, if the weather is good, then who benefits, do we think, first time caucus goers, the kind of people who would otherwise not be motivated to show up? >> that is one, but that is right. and that presumably helps mitt

romney, the message from the romney people felt they would be advantage if there were no obstacles to get to the caucus, in other words, they were looking as you say for first time caucus goers, for folks who pay moderate amount of attention to politics, if there had been a weather issue, heavy snow, ice, and so forth, the conventional wisdom was that would help ron paul who has a more enthusiastic following among particularly young people, more -- folks who have a stronger anti-government view, libertarians as i mentioned, so -- but that didn't happen, as the cold night but it is a clear night, and there is no obstacles to get to these caucuses, they were well publicized, the newspaper here, the des moines yes, sir stemming has been writing about these caucuses for days, so these people really didn't have an excuse i will say unless they are working, a lot of people work in the evening, and that is one group that is disenfranchised by this system, because if you have a job and it

is not a 9:00 to 5:00 or a 9:00 to 6:00 and you can't get here at 6:00 o'clock and children you have to look after and you don't have a baby-sitter you can't get to a caucus. >> there is that element of the caucus system too. >> okay, judy, we will get back as we begin to get results, thanks so much. >> we don't have any results yet, right now the voting has just begun in the caucuses and still continues, but we will be able to sort through some of what we are learning so far tonight, joining me here in washington is stuart rothenberg, and kristina bellatoni, the news hour political editor, we as i said don't have any results yet what we have is access to demographic information gathered by some news organizations who did what they call entrance polling, a is talking to poehlers as they arrived at the caucus sites and asking them about themselves, we cannot say who is ahead or behind what, but we can say who is voting and let's take a look at some of what we know today. some of the voters, the ones who showed up, some of whom judy saw

who decided that today for the first time i think i will go and vote for someone, i never participated in a caucus before, who are they coming out for? >> it looks like they are disproportionately supporting senator rick santorum, that is not a surprise, the des moines register poll talked about late deciders going toward former senator santorum and he was surging and he is in fact these late deciders are going his way, it would fit with some of the recent speculation. >> kristine, that has almost become a piece of conventional wisdom now that ron paul the oldest candidate in the race is very appealing to young voters, are we seeing that? >> yes, absolutely, kathryn, most of the young voters and that is something that is sort of questionable whether the he s able to get college students to show up and the numbers sort of indicate he is getting younger people to show up for him and a pretty wide demographic of people as well. >> and not only young people, but people who maybe haven't participated in this process before. >> yes, and that is basically people who were first time

caucus goers, are, they are supporting, if they never attended a gop caucus before they have 38 percent of them are going for paul which definitely shows he has the organization to be able to get those people there and maybe inspiring a new type of person, maybe not your typical gop voter in iowa. >> and the key issue also, which you have written about, stu, is about independence and iowa, independent voters are the key to the kingdom and if we watch what the entrance polls tell us, who are they going for? >> well, this is a perfect point, in 2008, independents constituted 13 percent of the caucus electorate, the caucus goers and the number now looks like above 20 percent, it may be in the 24, 25 percent, we won't know until all of the results are in. but those independents again are going disproportionately for ron paul so you have kind of the regular republicans, who are also the same people who have attended caucuses in the past going for romney and santorum or

santorum and romney, we don't know yet but the independents are going toward paul. this all fits kind of the new voters, independents, younger voters, in terms of ideology, paul is doing well, it is kind of both ends of the political spectrum, he has a different kind of appeal than the traditional republican electorate. >> the traditional republican electorate, is more likely to go for the electable candidate and that would be mitt romney? >> yes, those numbers, we are seeing that more people voted on electability than indicated in 2008, it was a smaller percentage of people that is what drove them to the caucuses, but it is definitely an issue, one thing that also, the fractured republican party is interesting, these would indicate the tea party actually is between 25 percent for paul and 25 percent for mitt romney -- for santorum, which is very interesting, and the majority of people that don't like the tea party or don't support the tea

party movement are romney supporters. >> it will be interesting to see if all of this plays out as they begin to get hard numbers as the evening goes along, i am curious what you two are watching for in particular as you look at the results that begin to come and the voters finally get a chance to speak in this process, what are you looking for, stu? >> i am looking for the numbers, the order and the margin, frankly, because we can look at these entrance polls and evaluate how different segments of the republican party or caucus goers are ging and there will be some really important conclusions, for example, if you are ron paul it is terrific you are getting independents and new voters, but what do you do in closed primaries later in the cycle when only republicans can participate? and so only party loyalists, but, you know, i think a lot is going to be made at the end of the night, i don't know what the conclusion is going to be, guinn, but a lot is going to be made on who won, who beat who, and who is in that top

tier, so one thing certainly to look at is the top tier versus those who finished, men and women who finished fourth, fifth. >> the cliche used to be three tickets out of iowa and now top tier and second tier. >> i think the romney folks have been fairly transparent they felt like if they came in first or second they were in an okay position. these numbers it appears it could be all tied up once we start seeing these results so that's a little trickier and a different sort of message he goes into and that will sort of change the game in new hampshire which is only a week away. >> we will be back to you later in the broadcast with more updated numbers, thank you. >> and now to jeffrey brown, who gets a wider view of the caucuses. jeff. >> and for that, i am joined by presidential historian michael and richard morton smith, scholar and resident at george mason university, and with us from iowa tonight, jeff stein, vice chair of the board of trustees for the state historical society of iowa. jeff stein, i would love to

start with you and pick up on something judy and guinn were talking about earlier which is this thing we call the caucus, it is still a mystery to many americans and people are in your state are par taking right now, give us a little snapshot, where did it come from? why do you do it that way? >> well, it is an outgrowth of an effort by the democratic party after the turmoil of the 1968 campaign to get more citizens involved, and so iowa decided as part of its delegate process to start at the most basic level, the precinct level, select delegates there, and move on to the county convention, a smaller move on to the district convention then the state convention and ultimately we get our delegation that goes and votes for a nominee. in order for all of those steps to fall into place, you nee neea certain amount of time so they simply back timed to 1972 from the convention and lo and we hold, b below and behold iowa ws the first in the nation so truly it was first by accident, but in

for the democrats ten, the republicans nine caucuses since, it has been just as true a predictor as new hampshire in determining who the ultimate party nominee will be. >> so, richard, a tradition of part of the tradition of small d democracy. >> i will say as someone who has actually taken part in iowa caucus, i can tell you the peril that comes to mind is the new england town meeting, the fact your friends and neighbors and people you see every day, people who you work with in the same office or down the street, members of your family, you all come together and it is a throwback to the time before we had a secret ballot, because there is nothing secret about this, you get up and you indicate who you support, you may change your support in the course of the evening, it is a fluid dynamic process. but you find out all sorts of things you didn't know about your next door maybe. what about effectiveness, michael? i mean, is that -- is that something that has been

adapted by many other states? >> well, not universally, the idea is we have a process that is sort of a hybrid because a caucus for a, tests a presidential candidate in one way and a primary in another way and a state convention, it has been compared this process to a deck cathalon because you are testing different skills of the athlete, but the down side though of this, jeff, is it can be very flukish, i mean, there is essentially been a campaign in the iowa caucus that has now been a year for one state, that is a little disproportionate as much as i love iowa, and so the result is that one of these early tests like iowa or new hampshire, for instance, 1976, gerald ford had gotten a few hundred fewer votes in that primary there is a very good chance ronald ronald reagan would have been nominated that year, there is even argument that perhaps these tests should be closer together and perhaps on a few days rather than spread across three or four months. >> jeff stein, i am going assume

you love iowa. do you find it flukish to some degree? >> if you take it from the national perspective, perhaps, but what iowa tends to do is truly hone in on individuals, and we have the opportunity to view them up close, and the comparison to a deck cathalon i think is right on point .. because the skills you need to do well here are not necessarily the skills you need to do well in new hampshire and why shouldn't we put our presidential candidates to the test in a variety of circumstances? and i should note, the democratic caucuses in iowa truly are open, where you have to go walk to different sides of the room under signs depending on which candidate you support, the republicans tonight are doing a secret ballot and so you can still maintain some level of confidentiality about your preference. >> and, richard, from 1972 to today, still small d democracy process, but vastly changed. >> yes, and i think that is what some people worry about, the

purity of the iowa caucus, it has become more like a general election, with millions -- $12 million to spend on ads, two-thirds of that not by candidates, but by these super packs, the polling has gotten to the point that literally hour by hour you can track where people are. that has to have a distorting effect on the process as it has been -- as it has played out in the past. >> any other thoughts? >> what i would say it had to be one state, why not iowa? >> you are going with that? >> that's it. >> all right. we will leave it there an come back a little later in the program, michael beschloss, richard norton smith, jeff stein, thanks all three. >> thank you. >> we are still in iowa, judy, we are finally see some actual numbers coming out of iowa and we are going to take a look. it is actually kind of interesting because it confirms some of the conventional wisdom which we have seen which is that ron paul so far with 16 percent

of the caucus reporting, is at 24 percent, right on his heels, in fact, such a small difference of only a couple hundred votes is mitt romney at 23 percent, and rick santorum, who has that late surge at 23 percent, no surprises there so far, judy. >> no surprises, and, gwyn, what that tells me right off the top of the bat is that the ron paul organization was every bit of what they said it was. the paul people have been telling us for days, you know, we have a program where you can come to iowa, if you are a student or somebody who wants to help us out and spend christmas with ron paul, and we will put you up, they said, at an inexpensive motel in iowa and you will work the state and help us make phone calls and they are doing the same thing and calling it new year's in new hampshire, the one clear thing they have going for them is that there is enthusiasm among the people who

like ron paul, who like his, some would say, radical, drastic agenda to cut government spending, he says by a trillion-dollar. the first year he is in office, bring back all-american troops from overseas as quickly as possible, these are positions we are going to get a number of voters in iowa who said they just couldn't -- they think ron paul is a nice man but saying we couldn't accept, you know, such, in their words, extreme agenda, but there are, if these numbers were to hold up, a quarter of iowa voters are perfectly comfortable with that, it tells you something about the level of dissatisfaction with what is going on in washington right now. >> judy, we are going to get back to you in just a few minutes as we get some more of the numbers in. i will go back to stu about some of these numbers because it is really interesting, we have seen throughout the entire campaign, romney stays at a ceiling of

25 percent, look where he is almost at 23 percent so far, so what does that tell us about whether he is as high as he is going tonight or something else about the enthusiasm question that judy was talking about or lack thereof which is keeping these numbers down? >> well, one thing you are seeing in a lot of the numbers is not all of the presings have been counted so it is getting updated it is interesting how romney is increasing in votes the more than is counted. >> let's take a look at what we can see so far. >> we have one county down in the southeastern portion of the state, it is along the mississippi river there in yellow, an that, there are five of eight precincts that are in and right now santorum is leading there, now huckabee won that with 52 percent over 24 percent for romney in 2008 so this is obviously going to be a pretty conservative county so it looks like the conservatives are going for santorum, but one thing we are waiting on is the western part of the state an that northeastern part of the state, very few votes have been counted there and that is what

romney won in '08. >> we also will be looking, stu, when we look at these numbers to come in, are they college towns how do you measure the paul vote? >> well, right now, the only way we can do it is on the entrance numbers that come in that give us a sense on the polls appeal is among younger voters, new voters, so you start to extrapolate out of that, there is also self described moderates and liberals, once we get the actual returns we will look at story county and look at johnson county, two big -- iowa state are there, and they are significant population centers. it doesn't mean that ron paul is going to get every vote in those counties, but will should be a reservoir of energized potentially, potentially energized or energizable voters. >> go ahead, kristina. >> and little things on the margins as well, michele bachmann grew up in waterloo and the last count she only got nine

votes in that area in the county where -- >> where people would show up early enough -- >> right. so potentially she is not going to do all that well tonight. the numbers are not indicating that, and then rick perry, texas governor rick perry visited dallas county just outside of december moins and attended two caucus sites so it will be interesting if he picked up any votes. >> in the last few days, newt gingrich tried something unusual, which is to run a positive campaign, he came under an incredible amount of withering assault the moment he led in the polls, and today he is clearly changing his view, he called rick -- ron paul, no he called mitt romney a liar, we to keep this straight, which is pretty harsh language, is this a turn in the campaign? >> he decided to run a positive campaign because he didn't have the money to run ads attacking his appointments, now, you know, the way we do this in politics is you try to make -- you have a

lemon and try to turn it into lemonade to turn your position of weakness to a position of strength but it doesn't work, it is old rule that an attack not answered is an attack believed, and clearly, gingrich has to change his strategy, now the question is whether he continues to be a credible contender for the republican nomination depending on how he does in iowa here, if he falls too far back, suddenly he is going to be treated as not just a second tier person but a guy who had a second act and got booed off the stage, when you talk about lemons out of lemonade we are talking about perry and bachmann who announced their intention not to go to new hampshire instead going to south carolina and in it for the long haul is what they are saying. >> yes, it is interesting because romney is going to go to south carolina, not tomorrow but he is going to make a play there before new hampshire's vote, so that is interesting in itself, as for gingrich, you actually talked to a source with pa super

pac that supports gingrich earlier tonight and said that soon they will be on the air with ads, particularly in south carolina, they are going to do some in new hampshire but the main effort will be in south carolina because they feel this is a front where he can go theeing he on romney and try to make his own case there and go for those type of voters. >> but if romney, just right now everything is very tight and doesn't look like anybody is running away with this but if romney could eke out anything that could even be considered a tie he would have quite a launching pad into new hampshire. >> even if you look at the current numbers and at this second, there is about a point and a half separating the top three, mitt romney is at third at this second, i want to stress that, that a second from now the numbers may be different, even if you look at -- if this is the top tier of the republican race, mitt romney, santorum and ron paul, you still have to like that, if you the romney folks, they believe that now your real competition is being defined,

and as you go to other contests around the country, new hampshire, closed contest with just republican votes he, you have to think that this is not a bad outcome, the best outcome is to finish first but but this is not a terrible outcome for romney. >> someone said romney has not had a single negative ad directed at him yet so how do we know this is a true test? >> you will start to see the negative ads real quick here, and also to give an indication of how divided this electorate appears to be at this point, with so few precincts an mike huckabee won by 34 percent in iowa in 2008 and romney came in at 25, fred thompson at 13, so i think that you are really seeing a divided republican party. >> quickly, you are right, there haven't been a lot of ads against romney but romney has been around for a long time, this is his second presidential race and the voters in iowa have a strong impression of who he is, on the question of voting for a true conservative, money is saying that mitt romney is a

true conservative, i think they know who he is. >> stuart rothenberg, christi stuart rothenberg we will be back. >> i am joined by michael beschloss, richard smith and jeff stein, now we have a few results, michael to put them in some larger political historical context here, ron paul, for example, his success? >> i am trying and i think we are going to have to try for a long time, because there is one paradox after another, ron paul believes that the government should be so limited we shouldn't have had a civil rights act in 196 power that interesting grated public praise places, at the same time he believes in fortress america, defending ourselves at our coast and you sort of wonder who are the people that voted for him tonight, because you can see that perhaps, anti-war liberals are very much captivated by that message of ron paul, but do they really believe that the government should be so limited that it shouldn't have acted for civil rights? so you have to

ask, do they think he was joking or are they in denial and the same thing on the other side, limited government conservatives, do they also think that we should do nothing to defend ourselves beyond our shores? i you sort of wonder whether they just think there is a half of ron paul they like and the other half he probably won't do. >> do you find some tradition he is fitting into or -- >> he is making his own. >> making it as he goes. >> absolutely, it is remarkable, without putting too much emphasis upon these entrance polls, it is fascinating, ron paul is doing very well among self professed liberal and moderate voters but at the same time among those who say the most important criteria is getting a true conservative, ron paul is crushing mitt romney. >> so what is he? is he is true conservative, the liberal, the moderate? this is someone who primps on labels.

>> jeff stein, where do you see him fitting into iowa, iowa culture and iowa politics? who is he addressing? >> it is an interesting mix, because if you are for smaller government, he is speaking to you and if that is your big thing you can kind of ignoring a lot of the other things, if you think that we should not be spending a lot of money abroad, he is speaking to you and you are ignoring the other things, it is the honest collection of people that you might see, and when i say odd, i mean they don't necessarily have a lot to do with one another, it is quite a coalition, but i think ultimately a lot of the paul voters are the ones who are worried about fiscal issues, and government over spending, they hear that message, because that resonates clearly with them, an they tend to stop listening to some degree and i have never been a big fan of single issue voting but we see an awful lot of it and there are a lot of different stances that paul is putting out there, appealing to very different cohorts of voters. >> michael. >> , you know, we are trying to think of historical context, i

can't help but mention that des moines iowa is a place where charles lindbergh in the fall of 1941 gave his famous speech to america first suggesting we should not, we americans get into the war against adolf hitler there is an old tradition of iowa isolationism which programs is resurgent tonight, but at the same time you are 2000, george w. bush won this caucus with 40 percent, he was probably one of the most interventionist presidents in the last 100 years so you tell me what does this all mean? >> well, go ahead. >> let's get the also rans because iowa is also famous for running people out, rick perry and michelle back man promised they were going to be the tim tebow of this caucus .. and they both apparently got their wish. >> should i make you explain that for football fans, for nonfootball fans? >> it is on the web site. >> it is on our web site. they both say they are going to go on. now, that goes back to our -- >> tomorrow morning. >> but that goes back to our

iowa as a predictor issue, and what is your words of wisdom on that? >> i think it is less of a predictor, perhaps than it has been in the past. >> michael? >> yes. and i think, you know, we have heard it from almost everyone, even ron paul during the last two days was asked does he envision himself as president, he said, well, probably not. this could be the man who wins the iowa caucus tonight. >> all right. thanks to all three of you and now back to judy. >> so thank you, jeff, and let's go now to the convention center in downtown des moines, iowa, media central for the journalist whose are covering these caucuses tonight and joining us from there is matthew strong, he is chairman of the iowa republican party. matt strong, thank you for talking with us. what do you make of these early numbers? >> well, good evening, judy, actually, i just return from my own precinct up in iowa which is a suburb just north of december moins and i think what we saw up

there mirrors mirrors what we are seeing across the state and new people showing up at the caucus, 27 percent of the people attended were new republican registrants tonight and at least in my precinct romney won followed by santorum, actually followed by newt gingrich and then ron paul, so i think we saw a got robust attendance compared to 2008, at least in my precinct, we are on pace to have a record turnout across the state and of course as a results show it is way too close zero to to call between ron paul, romney and santorum so buckle up it could be a wild ride for at least an hour or so. >> well, we are going to keep watching until all of the numbers are counted, matt strong, tell me which you think these new voters are showing up at the caucuses, what is it about this year? how do you explain it? >> i think there are two things, one is obviously we have seen a growth in the republican party here in iowa, 34 straight months of republican registration gain so we have more iowans that are

identifying with the party and the candidates, there is no question that ron paul had a specific turnout planned with independents and most of that is driven by what we have seen relative to the national debt, my at the discussion earlier was talking about foreign policy but if you look at what ron paul ads have been he focused on cutting a trillion dollars in spending, shutting down five federal agencies and talking to people at my caucus caucusing for ron paul issues related to shrinking washington that motivated them to come out tonight. >> matt, i have been covering these caucuses for a number of years, and it seems to me that the television ads of the candidates who could afford to do it have been more of a factor this year than in the past, how do you read that? and what do you think about how negative many of them have been? >> yes , there is no question, i think, in the advent of super pac e.r.a., united with more unlimited corporate spending it has changed this the landscape in the caucus campaign and i

think every candidate has to fight two fronts, not just retail politics when you look at romney and a paul or santorum they had a constant presence on the ground but you have to be prepared to wage the air war and i think iowa is just the new frontier in what we will see in politics all across the country. >> do you think it has been too negative? >> well, you know, it is a fine line. at the end of the day i believe a competitive primary will yield our strongest possible general election mom knee against barack obama, and i know what weighs for our candidate on the other, waits for our candidate and i know the president obama is gearing one their own super pac so we need a battle-tested candidate. >> i want to ask you, matt strong, about the fact that iowa voters seem to have been so undecided for so long in this election year, how do you explain that and to what extent does that either strengthen or

weaken whoever wins or comes in close coming out of iowa? >> yes, judy, i think there were a couple of things, it was a very unusual caucus campaign because the candidates did not do the amount of retailing politicking we are used to in iowa, i there at this debates had something to do that, we talk about the extensive television advertising, one reason it was such a late-breaking opportunity here, they wanted to see the candidates up close in question and ask the tough questions we are used to do every four or eight years, secondarily, you know, i just think at the end of the day, iowa republicans want to do two things, they want to find a candidate to beat barack obama next november but they also want to send a message and i think you see that with the top three candidates that are bunched up that each of them has run very aggressive campaigns here talking about what we need to do to shrink the federal debt, both romney and paul, their ad campaigns specifically focused on the debt issue, so even though things are relatively good economically in iowa i think we have the same

concerns most americans do about a government that is not living within its means. >> and just finally, if the final results are as bunch at the top as they are now, does that mean nobody really gets a lift coming out of the state and has iowa resolved the presidential selection process when all is said and done? >> well, you know, i like to point out we are just the first step in the process, we are not designed to be the decider, traditionally we do play the role of winnowing the field so it wouldn't surprise me if you had more attention on the top three finishers out of iowa, once again, iowa could play that role of winnowing the field as we move on to south carolina and north carolina. >> all right. well we will leave it there, matt strong is the chairman of the iowa republican party and good to see you, and thank you for stopping by and talk to you later tonight. thank you. >> thanks, judy. >> thanks, judy and now we are back to stuart rothenberg and

kristina bellatoni. >> we are now up to 26 percent of the vote, that is the news, more amazing thing is we still have so few -- we still have this dead heat between romney, santorum and paul, take a look at that. >> what do you make of it, stu? >> it is going to be tight and tight all night, i mean, when you have this chunk of the vote in and what we have seen from the entrance polls it looks like photo finish, this is a kentucky derby, i don't know, somebody is going to win by a nose but in politics it is not quite that clear-cut. and the fact that we have three contenders who are seemingly headed for the finish line at the same time, i think that probably makes it worse for the people who aren't close behind at their heels because if you add those numbers up, we talk about 70 percent of the vote right there, if my math is pretty close. >> yes. >> and, you know, they are not much left for the rest of the field.

>> we have a few more votes since you started talking, still a dead heat, kristina. >> yes when you drill down on the precincts which you can find on our web site it is helpful to see there is just a handful of votes that are for bachmann and a few huntsman, the former governor. >> yes, he is definitely ceded "want you are seeing this as such a situation in flux right now. >> part of the big discussion we have been hearing and all of the polls leading up to this and some of the entrance numbers we have seen tonight is people want to vote no matter who they support they want to vote for the people who they think can defeat barack obama. >> have we seen any sign that the person who they think is that person, often mitt romney, is benefitting from that? >> on the entrance polls yes there is evidence of that, the entrance polls have asked the question of what is most important candidate quality four years ago, electability was in the single digits, seven or eight percent, and now it is can

defeat president obama, not quite one in three but three in ten, close to 30 percent of responrespondents say at this p, the numbers may change slightly but are saying that electability is a big deal to them. >> and in second place in that category is voters who are going for newt gingrich which is interesting because he is obviously looking at about fourth place here but 21 percent, according to this entrance poll, are saying they voted on electability and that's why they picked -- >> is it possible, kristina, to look at this map and begin to isolate some of the support for some of these candidates? it is really hard to know that romney seems to be scattered kind of around the state, he is in green, ron paul also with some strength in, we assume, right around des moines, interes interestingly, interestingly enough and santorum seems to be scattered strongly around the state. >> none of these counties have been full -- or the counties have been fully counted yet so you have in many cases half of

the precincts have reported so the numbers are rapidly changing the, western part of the state, particularly this sioux city area, romney won all of that, in 2008 and we are not seeing any numbers from there yet, so that could really change these dramatically if those come in strongly for him. and then th the central part ofe state is what mike huckabee was able to capture in 2,00 2008, at of the core evangelical vote and you have a lot of candidates now on top with these early returns. >> i think it is fair to say the color pallet is confused compared to what we woul we woue expected compared to what we saw four years ago, now maybe, maybe the colors will align the way we think that they are supposed to align on the basis of four years ago, but right now it is odd. >> perhaps we shouldn't be surprised, this is kind of in keeping with how volatile this race has been all along. >> it is a different kind of race than four years ago, isn't it somewhere you had a conservative, mike huckabee, who had the evangelicals and now the

republican electorate and to some extent the new independent voters have scattered across a number of candidates. >> we are just under a third of the vote in and going to keep monitoring it and we will get back with some more, thank you, stu and kristina. >> >> next, the crackdown on syrian dissidents this time in the united states. while the death toll in syria has now climbed over 5,000, another sinister side of the struggle is playing out right here at home. >> we report. >> sreenivasan: it's an anthem filled with meaning for syrian- american virtuoso. among the words to his composition entitled "my homeland."

when will i see you free? he played it before hundreds protesting outside the white house this summer against the regime of al assad and in support of the uprising. though he says the song intends a global message, his appearance and his performance may have almost cost his parents their lives back home in damascus. >> when i performed at the white house, a few hours later the syrian security forces of that regime attacked my parents. here's a regime who couldn't stand a five-minute song. >> sreenivasan: did you expect them to go after your parents? >> yes. i actually warned my parents. i'm going to be performing. watch out. >> sreenivasan: his 73-year-old father and his 66-year-old mother were attacked in their damascus home in late july. an assault documented with photos and video a short time later. >> thank god they have didn't kill them. they handcuffed his hands.

they made him watch my mom being beaten. >> sreenivasan: he had tape placed over his mouth. handcuffed. beaten. >> that's my dad. that's my mom after the attack. >> sreenivasan: she's bleeding from her eye and her head. >> you can see her neck too. >> sreenivasan: shortly after the attack, his parents were granted emergency visas to be with their son here in the u.s. he's convinced it was not random thuggery or even regime loyalists but an attack orchestrated by the security forces of assad. he contends that the attackers acted on information gathered here in the united states. he has feared for his own safety here and perhaps with good reason. he's received threatening phone calls and his own website was hacked in mid december by the syrian electronic army which plastered a menacing message across the page. how do you know that your parents were targeted because of what you did in washington? >> when they were beating my mom

she was screaming, why are you killing me? why are you hitting me? they said we're doing this to teach you a lesson: because your son is demonstrating against us. i have no doubt in my mind that there's a group of people who are surveiling, monitoring, the syrian-american community. and it's managed by the syrian embassy in washington. >> sreenivasan: that's a charge the syrian government categorically denies. but it's not just syrian expatriates making that allegation. in mid-october the f.b.i. arrested mohammed sewey, a naturalized citizen from syria and a former car salesman in northern virginia. among the charges leveled in the indictment, that he was acting as an agent of the syrian national intelligence service. the indictment alleges he was actively spying on the expatriate community here and passing information back to syria where relatives of u.s.- based protestors would then be threatened or killed.

prosecutors say he had protests videotaped for delivery to syrian agents. the u.s. attorney for the eastern district of virginia, based in alexandria. his office is prosecuting the case. >> if you go through the indictment it lays out in detail act after act after act of him engaging in conduct in which he's trying to conceal, hide or misrepresent the fact that he's an operative for syrian intelligence. he's directing other people to make recordings of dissidents and protestors and then providing that information back to the syrian government. >> hello. >> sreenivasan: part of the foundation of that case was built on wire-tapped conversations he had in arabic with his wife. and with an f.b.i. informant. his defenders say the government has misunderstood the tone and content of the nine conversations. and mistranslated similarly harmless expressions unique to syrian arabic. but mcbride says there are other parts of the case that link the

man to the assad regime. >> at a time of immense civil unrest in syria, the president takes time to meet personally with this man. he has access to the syrian ambassador here in the united states. he has access to high-level members of the syrian intelligence agency. >> sreenivasan: his trial is set for may. he is jailed without bail now, though he freely admits he's an assad supporter his family and associates say he wouldn't risk his and his wife and children's livelihoods here. they insist he's innocent. he expressed a desire to be interviewed by the newshour but our requests were denied by the authorities who hold him. his public defender also declined to speak on the record. the syrian embassy in washington d.c. has repeatedly refused newshour requests for an on- camera interview with either the ambassador or a top aide on this matter. and whether the syrian government is running agents in

the united states. but in a statement they did say there have been concerted efforts recently by individuals and the media to spread lies and distortions regarding the embassy of syria. these proceed post russ allegations claim that the embassy is involved in targeting or intimidating syrian expatriates in the u.s. which is absolutely untrue. the syrian-american community is divided between support for the uprising and for the assad regime. at a syrian orthodox church outside washington, not a single parishioner wanted to talk about their homeland. the congregation's pastor struck a careful middle ground. >> we are with those people who ask rightly for their rights. they want it in the right way going on the streets, demonstrating peacefully but not for those people who.... >> sreenivasan: only 10% of syria is christian. the assad regime has allowed them to practice and even attain high rank in the syrian government.

some syrian christians are cautious to take sides in the uprising. that caution has been reinforced by the recent travails of christians in egypt as islamists come to the fore. the pastor says no one is without blame in syria. and every side is spreading its own misinformation. >> everyone is engaging in propaganda constantly: the government and the opposition. everyone. the church is even engaged in propaganda. everyone for his political point of view and how he sees what is good for the country. >> sreenivasan: he says he has heard the rumors of the presence of the secret intelligence in the united states but he believes the syrian government when it says they have nothing to do with it. >> i have heard it on the news. i have gone to the syrian embassy in d.c. and the statement posted over there that the embassy says has nothing to do with this. it's never recruited anyone to work for it.

who is american and who lives in the u.s. >> sreenivasan: those denials meant little at a recent meeting of the syrian-american council outside washington. speaker after speaker denounced the damascus regime, speaking and singing of a syria without assad. many told the stories of family harassed, assaulted or worse allegedly because of actions taken by their family members here in u.s. this person is from michigan. she did not want her last name used for reasons that will become apparent. her father who left syria 40 years ago was marching outside the syrian embassy this past spring when the ambassador invited him and others in to talk. >> he gave his first name, last name, where he was from. i got a text from my sister saying isn't this crazy? they just came to my uncle's house and asked what's your brother? >> sreenivasan: another uncle hers died from a brutal beating

security forces meted out when they came to arrest one of his sons. she told us that ten cousins were also rounded up, tortured and beaten. she said if she thought it would make a difference to her family's safety she would stop protesting. >> you know, they're everywhere in the syrian community. i'm certain that there's surveillance. to me that won't stop. the wall of fear is down. >> sreenivasan: whether any part of that wall was ever built here will be a key issue when the man is brought to trial next spring. >> ifill: on our web site, we want to hear from syrian- americans who believe they or their family members have been intimidated by agents of the assad regime, and its supporters. you can submit your information confidentially at newshour.pbs.org. >> believe it or not there was some other news today, and we

have that, kwame. >> wall street got the new year off to a good start, stocks rallied from the opening bell on positive economic news out of china and germany. the dow jones industrial average gained more the dow jones industrial average gained more than 179 points to close at 12,397. the nasdaq rose more than 43 points to close at 2648. the u.s. navy will continue sending warships to the persian gulf, despite threats from iran. that word came today after iran said its just-completed naval drills could close the strait of hormuz, if the west tries to embargo iranian oil. the commander of iran's army pointed to the u.s. aircraft carrier "john c. stennis," which left the persian gulf last week. >> in my opinion the enemy has gotten the message of the military drill. we want to emphasize that we have no plan to begin any

irrational act, but we are ready against any threats. we warn the american warship that was previously in the persian gulf it is a threat to us and it should not return. we are not used to repeating our warnings. >> holman: in washington, a pentagon spokesman said u.s. naval deployments in the persian gulf would continue, as they have for decades. and white house spokesperson jay carney said iran's warnings show that global sanctions are hurting. >> it reflects the fact that iran is in a position of weakness. it's the latest round of iranian threats. it's confirmation that tehran is under increasing pressure for its continued failures to live up to its international obligations. iran is isolated. and it's seeking to divert attention from its behavior and domestic problems. >> holman: iran's warnings to the west have escalated as it faces the possibility of curbs on its vital oil exports. a string of bombings struck southern afghanistan today, killing at least 13 people. three separate explosions erupted in the city of kandahar, one in the morning and the

others in the evening. one of the bombs was onboard a motorcycle that blew up at a police checkpoint. four police officers and a child were among those killed. the other blasts went off within minutes of each other at a busy intersection. in egypt, prosecutors began to make their case in the trial of former president hosni mubarak. they accused him of tyranny and corruption during his decades of rule, in the first of three days of opening statements. mubarak could face the death penalty if convicted. his two sons and eight other defendants also are on trial. those are some of the day's major stories. now, back to judy. >> thanks, kwame. i am judy woodruff in des moines and i can tell you at this hour counting of what results have come in from the iowa caucuses, with about 31 percent of the precincts reporting, mitt romney, rick santorum and ron paul are all bunched at right around 23 percent, it is kind of a stunning three way tie at this

point, and guinn, i have to say, what i am -- if my recollection is correct, if this is the way it enup and we are a long way from the end, this could be the lowest percentage for a winner coming out of iowa in a long time, maybe ever. >> well, certainly huckabee four years ago the republican who won these caucuses was up north of 30 percent, like 34, 35 percent, what we are seeing in this case, at this late hour eastern time, just before 10:00 o'clock eastern time about 9:00 o'clock central time the caucuses have been open for a while and we are just talking about 100 votes or so separating these top tier candidates. completely unusual, and, in fact, the networks are already reporting they don't plan to call this until every vote is counted. >> that's right. and even though we have heard from republicans, they think they are going to have a great turnout, at this point, gwyn, it looks like the turnout is going to be either on par or maybe a little less than the last time.

again, we are reluctant t to mae projections and going to wait and see what the final vote count is, but iowa may not -- we may know who is going to be at the bottom because the bottom three whose names we haven't mentioned lately, newt gingrich, rick perry and michele bachmann, we know who they are, but the person at the top is very much in doubt. >> well, and what is interesting is that everything from what we can tell from the entrance pose, these interviews with voters when they arrive at caucuses tell us what we thought we knew, we knew rick santorum was popular among evangelicals and romney was popular among higher earners and said economy and businesses was their big concern and those who opposed the tea party and we knew ron paul could get this incredible appeal from young people although she the oldest person in the race. what we don't know is how the numbers actually shake out in the very end, it is amazing, judy. >> you are exactly right, the entrance polls showing the candidates fit the profile of everything we thought coming up to tonight.

well, our coverage will continue on pbs at 11:00 o'clock eastern, there will be a half hour special, gwyn and i will be back, for now, that is the news hour, i am judy woodruff, and i am gwen ifill, perhaps you can find real numbers where we will post the victory and concession speeches plus all of our programming on your mobile device, just download the pbs news hours for interactive maps and more and we will be here for a special result of the result of the caucuses as we promised at 11:00 o'clock eastern time and as the campaign moves to new hampshire again tomorrow evening, thanks for watching, good night. major funding for the pbs news hour has been provided by bnsf railway. and by the bill and melinda gates foundation dedicated to the idea that all people deserve the chance to live a healthy, productive life.

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