>> this is n.b.r. >> tom: good evening. i'm tom hudson. susie is off this week. a nervous wall street starts the week with no clear direction. but economic data continues pointing to a slowing u.s. economy, and that feeds fears of recession. then, how all this may play out at the ballot box. we kick off a week long look at election 2012, jobs and the economy. that and more tonight on "n.b.r." it was a choppy day of trading on wall street. fresh worries about the u.s. economy and europe's debt crisis kept investors on edge. the dow lost 17 points. while the nasdaq added 12, the s&p 500 closed nearly unchanged. suzanne pratt tonight, takes a look at where stocks may be headed.

>> reporter: for stock investors, today was certainly an improvement after friday's big sell-off. but, even though trading was calmer, market pros say anxiety about spain and greece remains high. >> i still think the tone to the market is somewhat negative. i think very politically driven and very headline driven. and, so to that end we look at it very minute to minute to see what's developing in europe. >> reporter: with the dow hovering at 12,000, it's anyone's guess whether the next milestone will be 11,000 or 13,000. that could depend on corporate profits, not just europe. second quarter results aren't looking too helpful. currently, q2 profit growth for s&p 500 firms is expected to be flat. at the start of this year, analysts were looking for a more optimistic 4%. still, some experts say lowered expectations are easier for corporate america to beat. >> companies are doing very well, and the end of the day

when you invest in the stock market, you're ultimately investing in companies. so, i do think when earnings season starts, so long as we can continue the trend we've had over the past few quarters, that will also create a bit of a lift to the equity markets. >> reporter: unfortunately, earnings season is more than a month a way. that leaves the stock market still tethered to europe. suzanne pratt, "n.b.r.," new york. >> reporter: i'm erika miller. still ahead, weak employment gains are spurring fears of another recession. "nightly business report" is brought to you by: captioning sponsored by wpbt >> tom: we saw more evidence today of a slowing u.s. economy. factory orders fell in april by

.6%, to nearly $466 billion. that's there lowest level since october. this comes after last week's bad news about the job market. the nation is barely creating enough jobs to keep up with population growth. as erika miller reports, all this is raising fears about another recession. >> reporter: the likelihood of recession this year is still slim. but it's growing. according to in-trade, an online betting site, odds the u.s. economy will slip back into recession now stand above 18%, from the low-teens most of the spring. but even if the u.s. skirts recession, it probably won't feel like much of a recovery. >> "it hasn't felt like what we're used to, as far as economic recoveries go. we've seen job growth, it's improved but it's still pretty anemic. wage growth is still pretty weak. the economy is still really growing at a snail's pace.

>> reporter: slowing growth in europe and china are dragging down growth here, but not the way you might think. u.s. exports to europe account for less than 2% of u.s. g.d.p. and exports to china are less than 1%. >> it's not really the export channel that we worry about. it's more the global contagion channel. the impact on financial markets. the impact on global businesses. >> reporter: in order to help the u.s. economy, the federal reserve may announce another round of bond purchases hoping to stimulate borrowing. >> i think june. if not june, july. i think the earlier, the better, from the fed, reduce some of the uncertainty in the market. we're seeing the turmoil now in the financial markets and over the summer. >> reporter: gallagher, and others would also like more economic stimulus from washington, but that seems unlikely anytime soon. >> unfortunately, washington is just not in a proactive mode right now. the elections are on us in november. so it's kind of frozen what's

taking place in washington. >> reporter: trouble in europe will continue to weigh on the us economy for the second straight summer. on june 17th, greece will hold parliamentary elections, and you can bet that whatever the outcome, there will be fallout in global markets. erika miller, "n.b.r.," new york. >> tom: speaking of greece, standard and poor's today said there's a one-in-three chance of greece leaving the euro-zone after those national elections later this month. but the ratings firm says a greek exit from the currency doesn't mean we'll see automatic credit downgrades for other euro-zone nations. meantime, billionaire investor george soros thinks said germany has three months to avert a breakup of the euro-zone. he thinks the region's crisis will peak this fall. he wants german leader angela merkel to push "extra-ordinary policy measures," to keep the euro-zone together. >> a lot of crosscurrents, we have two perspectives on the market for invests, charles nenner is the founder of charles nenner

research center joining us in miami, nick colas with the nasdaq, chief market strategist at convergex group. again, thanks. lots going on here. charles, let's begin with you. your view of this market for long-term investors through the end of the world for stocks. >> we're very negative. we don't think the problem is europe. we think the problem is the united states. i still think we will have deflationary crisis. i =eink the economy will roll over. >> tom: than a recession. >> even worse i think than a recession. and the beginning of a lot of troubl. >> tom: not an optimistic out look from charles, do you agree. >> i think it is a little dire but i think unfortunately it's on the right track. the u.s. economy was the last anchor that the global economy had for growth in 2012 and given the sloppy jobs report on friday, and the other rough economic data we can't really rely on the u.s. economy to keep moving forward, against the backdrop we have described in europe and emerging markets. it seems like there is really no place to go for growth this year.

so we are calling for a very volatile second half of the year. perhaps not quite as dire as you just outlined but still very tough tez nick, how about the s&p 500. over the past five years it has been a very volatile five years with highs back in '07, lows in 2009, and here we are trying to creep back up to those highs that we fall back a few years ago. do you anticipate the index will be higher or lower at the end of thier. >> i think it will probably be a touch lower but with a lot of volatility around it. we do have a lot of very important catalysts coming up, the greek elections, our own elections, a fiscal cliff that we face, all of which really guarantees volatility without really a lot of resolution. so we are thinking the market going to be flat to lower between now and the end of december. >> tom: charles, what do you anticipate for the broad market? >> i think we still have a high, i don't think we will go back in the market for a long time. >> tom: not time to be short just to be out entirely of stocks. >> as the gentleman saix i

agree there will be a lot of volatility, a very difficult to make money on such a market. >> tom: you are also watching the semiconductor, what does this index tell you, you want to talk about volatility, technology is the plates you see a lot of it. >> the assumption is that nothing will sit rampant so we assume that we know what happens, we invest in what happens. a cycle and the semiconductors is down again like in most industry groups, and things don't look good. >> tom: nick, technology had been a place to be in the first quarter of this year. utilities are a place though that are you looking at for defensive plays. what attracts you to utilities in this kind of environment that you describe? >> yeah there are two things i think make utilities particularly attractive. the first is that they tend to work the same way bonds work. they get priced as much as bonds as equities as rates it continue to decline, are you going to see utilities

play some catch-up and they ray pretty good space. they were a top performing secretary never 2011-- 2011 i think they will be the same in 2012ment and you also have the benefit of not having as much european exposure direct or indirect at o lot of other parts of 9 s&p. two reasons why i like utilities. >> tom: that certainly brings up the point of the hits toric drop in yields that we've seen, the ten year yields, about one and a half percent today after the historic drop that we saw on friday. charles, what does this tell you about for fixed income investors. >> long and outside into the summer, after the summer you will be surprised how fast downhill with the bond. and i feel sorry for most investors because first they get killed by the stock market crash, then long on gold that will crash and the next crash will be the bond market. >> tom: are you in crash. >> no, we are long in bonds but in a couple of we cans with resell the bonds and be in cash. >> tom: what do you think about the momentum in the bond trade. >> it is really profound it is the most amazing move i think in the past couple of weeks that we've seen,

frankly since the recession in 2008 and 9. yields were almost 100 basis points lower than during the depths of the recession last time around. i think signals a real concern about the global competent and global financial system, people are looking for any safe fort in the storm and bonds are the safe port for the moment so it indicates a lot of trouble to come. >> tom: two perspectives. gentlemen, thank you, at the nasdaq nick colas with convergex and charles nenner with charles nenner research. >> tom: the uncertain economy already has shaped the election season, as the presidential

campaigns race to mold the latest economic news in their favor. in a year when jobs are so important, the jobs of president obama and mitt romney also hang in the balance. sylvia hall kicks off our week- long series on the 2012 election, jobs and the economy. >> reporter: as president obama and presumed republican challenger mitt romney fire up their campaigns, they're driving the debate to the same place- the economy. >> president romney's leadership puts jobs first. romney economics-- it didn't work then and it won't work now. >> reporter: with unemployment above 8%, the economy is set to play as big a role in this election as any in living memory. and with the presidency on the line, the stakes couldn't be higher. >> since the 1930's, for better or for worse, americans have held the president directly responsible for the performance of the economy. there's not a lot of evidence that presidents wield as much power over the economy as the american electorate thinks they

do, but it's what they think that matters. >> reporter: the economy looked good this winter, as more than 200,000 jobs were added each month, and europe appeared to reign in its debt crisis. but this spring, it's started to look downright scary again for some americans, putting the president on uneven footing as november nears. >> what we're seeing playing out now, is the election. the monthly job statistics and reports on manufacturing, reports on household income, reports on inflation, that is the election. and in my judgement, everything else is background noise. >> reporter: but political experts agree, in november, it will all come down to two simple questions: is the president doing a good enough job? and would the challenger do any better? >> the people that really matter are those swing voters. they're going to decide whether barack obama gets a second term. and many of them won't decide until very late whether or not they want change and whether or not mitt romney is an acceptable version of change. >> reporter: and those voters are growing in number, a pew

research poll released today showed nearly 40% of americans are independent voters, a 25- year high. sylvia hall, "n.b.r.," washington. >> tom: jobs are front and center in state elections as well. just look at tomorrow's recall election of the wisconsin governor. scott walker stirred up controversy over his push to remove most collective bargaining rights from state workers. diane eastabrook reports. >> reporter: in downtown milwaukee this morning, religious leaders sounded a get out the vote battle cry, aimed directly at governor scott walker, whose war with public labor unions over collective bargaining rights, sparked tomorrow's historic recall election. >> to eliminate workers from the table is un-democratic, and it is un-american. >> reporter: walker faces off tomorrow against milwaukee mayor tom barrett in the latest marquette university law school poll, the governor leads barrett by seven points. marquette university political science professor amber wichowsky says its crucial for

democrats to vote: >> 92% of republicans surveyed said yes they are absolutely certain they are going to vote. the numbers are somewhat lower for democrats. its about 77%. >> reporter: in recent weeks the focus of the recall election has switched from union rights to jobs. walker pledged to create 250,000 in his first term, but so far wisconsin has only added about 20,000. timothy sheehy president of metropolitan milwaukee association of commerce thinks the recall has been a distraction from the governor's job creation plan. >> he's been in office for barely a year, and we're talking about the prospect of changing course again, so part of the frustration in the business community is we get elections every four years, they come quick enough, they're expensive and here we are doing this a little more than a year out. dianestabrook in is in milwaukee.

what do we know of the job markets under the governor. >> right now the statement has an unemployment rate of about 6.5%. it's created in the last year, actually if the year 2011 about 23,000 jobsment now the federal government originally said the state had lost jobs during that time. it has since come back and confirmed the state's number and said yes, in fact, wisconsin has created about 23,000 jobs. however, when governor walker came into office, he really was hoping that he would lure some companies from states like illinois to relocate here in wisconsin. and economists say at this point that really hasn't happened. >> tom: dianestabrook reporting in milwaukee, that you, diane.

>> tom: the trustee liquidating the bankrupt futures trading firm, m.f. global, is taking aim at the firm's former c.e.o. jon corzine, saying corzine's aggressive trading strategies pushed m.f. global to the brink. in a 275 page report filed today with the bankruptcy court, trustee james giddens said he may seek civil claims against corzine, and other top executives for breach of duty. giddens also said he plans to sue j.p. morgan chase, one of m.f. global's two banks, if they can't settle over millions of dollars of missing client funds in the next 60 days. >> tom: stocks saw choppy trading as traders and investors worked through signs of the u.s. economy slowing, and the european anxieties. the s&p 500 staged at least three rallies today, right from opening bell, around 2:30 eastern, and in the final 20 minutes of the session.

that last one helped the index finished with a razor thin gain. trading volume on the big board was down from friday, at 817 million shares. nasdaq volume was almost 1.8 billion. the losses today were concentrated in two sectors, the financial and industrials sectors. each fell 1%. this was highlighted by the biggest percentage losers in the dow industrial average. j.p. morgan continued to move lower, off almost 3% down to its lowest close since december. caterpillar fell 2.6%, falling it its lowest since october. looking closer at the sell-off in caterpillar, in february, shares hit at all-time high, helping fuel the rally in the dow index. and since the dow is a price- weighted index, meaning the higher priced the stock, the more influential it is. it's estimated more than quarter of the dow industrial's drop since february is due to the drop in just one stock, caterpillar. natural gas producer chesapeake

energy will make some changes to its board of directors. the company has been under scrutiny over separate dealings with its c.e.o. aubrey mcclendon, high debt levels and falling natural gas prices. shares were up 6% today with the company ready to replace four of its nine board of director members. the four new candidates were suggested by the company two largest shareholders. meantime, an energy asset management firm says chesapeake is selling two ohio oil fields, as it looks to raise cash to pay down debt. chesapeake's annual shareholder meeting is friday. after the close tonight, starbucks announced its largest acquisition, a relatively modest $100 million deal for the san francisco-based bakery chain, la boulange. the deal expands starbucks focus on food items. while shares bucked the weak market today with their over 3% gain during the regular session, after the announcement, the stock fell 2.5% from this closing number. during the session, starbucks

announced plans for a new initiative. but after the la boulange announcement, the market appeared initially unimpressed. airline stocks were hit after one of the biggest carrier in the u.s. saw its revenue growth slowed last month. that hit delta stock, losing 11.5%. united continental fell more than 7.5%. and discount carrier southwest fell almost 4%. in our exchange traded fund market flash, growth funds found the buyers. the tracking fund for the nasdaq 100, and the emerging markets e.t.f. were higher, with the rest of the most actively traded funds down. and that's tonight's "market focus."

>> tom: any indication it could be a long hot summer for invest, slowing u.s. economy, europe in turmoil, the election coming up, brings us to tonight's word on the street, survive, debra borchardt, you have been looking at streets that make profit. this spf for an investors portfolio in what could be a volatile summertime. >> that's right, as you heard from your guest earlier in the show, some of them are saying oh my god, i'm getting out of the market. but if you get out of the market, you have to be in it to win it. if you would have gotten out last summer would you have underperformed 10% and the summer before that 17%. so there are still good name force the summer. >> tom: one of the fills asset managers are pointing to is disney, walt disney. house of the mouse. is it a theme park play,

movie play, maybe both. >> it is both. what else do you want do-to-do in the summer but go to the move yeast and theme parks. disif he got beat up for that john carter movie. everybody said it was a flopment but if you look at the total sales it will really well internationally and ended up with $128 o-- 280 million in sales, she have brave and franken wean year coming out. and the theme parks, people are going to the parks, attendance is up and spending money when they are there, more than last year. >> tom: just where the low gas provideses come no play certainly for the theme parks. you also have pointed to irgs, ignite restaurant group. kind of a new stock. just started trading back last month this is a company behind the joe crab shack franchise it went public at 14 tonight, over 17.5, it already had a nice rally. >> it has done well but a lot of people don't really know this companiment because as you mentioned it's relatively new. but if you know joe's crab shack, isn't that place great. you can go, eat, get a lot of food for not a ton of money. and here's what i love about

this company. 15 consecutive quarters of increasing sales. and this is when, again, things are supposed to be tough out there but people are going to eat at joe's crab shack. >> certainly some impressive numbers there for ignite restaurant. and then finally you have to top it off with the cold one there from boston beer company, sams, sam adams. this stock $104. it has been range bound going back to last fall. what could be a catalyst. >> it certainly has, and here is the thing. beer sales have been down, and i think what a lot of people do is they think of sands and think beer sales down, i don't know if i want to do that but craft beer sales have been up. and what's interesting about sam's is they have a new part of the company called alchemy and sciences this is their incubator for craft beers. they've already kind of brought in their expenses on the balance sheet but they haven't accounted for any profits. so there is a lot of upside potential here for profits on this side of the company. and i think that if you really get in here now, you know, maybe even let it pull back even a couple of

dollars more, i think you're going to get it at a good price. >> tom: have some patience there when it comes to your habit with sam's, do you own any of these shares. >> i don't own any of them. >> narrator: you can-- . >> tom: you can read debra's article at the street.com, a link on our web site as well, debra borchardt, with the street.com coming >> tom: tomorrow on "n.b.r." as our coverage of the 2012 election, the economy and jobs, continues. former pennsylvania governor ed rendell weighs in on job creation. >> tom: that's "n.b.r." for monday, june 4. we want to remind you this is the time of year your public television station seeks your support. support that makes programs like "n.b.r." possible. goodnight everyone, we'll see you online at: www.nbr.com, and back here tomorrow evening. "nightly business report" is brought to you by:

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