lauren on. what's your out look for the retail sector? >> we're seeing signs that the consumer is cautious and pulling back, and the housing market is not recovering quickly as possible. nor is unemployment. so i think what that's going to tell us is the consumer is going to be cautious, but will spend as long as they >> what does value mean for the consumer? does it mean different things for a consumer shopping at a luxury retailer versus a mass market retailer? >> i think people equate value with quality that they're getting for the money that they're paying. >> so here we are on ne new york's madison avenue, ground zero for luxury retail. >> michael, overnight we saw numbers coming out of china showing the government might have to inject a little more stimulus into the economy. what sort of impact is the

slowdown in china having on the luxury retail sector? >> the luxury retail sector is continuing to report strong earnings. the chinese consumer, vis-a-vis the u.s. is not as important of a factor as it is in europe. there may be a bigger effect here. but others are spending strongly in the luxury sector. >> from high end luxury to household names like macy's, we've seen macy's and kohl's report better than expected for their quarters. what about the back to school season. >> the national federation is predicting a strong back to school. but we have to temper the optdimism with the fact that consumers are looking for value, promotions and sales. >> thank you for joining us. >> thank you, ruben. >> tom: while the nation's retailers focus on back to school sales, investors will be looking to see if changes at j.c. penney are making the

grade. the embattled retailer reports quarterly results tomorrow, we'll see how its doing with its latest strategy: "shops within a store", similar to what you'd find at higher-end department stores. j.c. penney is expected to post a loss of $0.25 a share, that's down from a profit of $0.07 a share in the same period last year. >> susie: and now an update on housing, and issues facing homebuyers. a string of fresh reports today, gives a mixed picture on housing: mortgage delinquencies rose in the second quarter: 7.5% of all mortgages are past due. mortgage rates rose slightly over the past week. the 30-year fixed is now 3.59%, still that's near historic lows. and home prices posted the strongest increase in the second quarter. the national association of realtors says the national median price for a single-family home rose 7.3%, to $181,000. joining us now to put all this

in perspective: stephen gallagher, chief u.s. economist at societe generale. stephen, when you look at the housing market, is it better for buyers@n' or sellers? >> it's clearly bettered for buyers. the lowest mortgage rates pretty much on record, combineed with soft pricing. it's beginning to look a little bit better. >> susie: and for sellers? >> sellers if they're a krntd owner they might have paid more for the home, and if they're willing to hold on algtsd longer speculating that the price may go up a little further from here. >> susie: how would you describe the overall health of the housing market? is it getting back to normal?

>> it's getting back to north, but it's a long process. what we're begining to see, and a little more with pricing immediately, is that things are begining to turn positive again. so we're reacting to the3ps fir turn. long way to go to get a recovery to where we were a few years ago, but it's a much better environment. >> susie: we got news this week from the federal reserve that the number of applications for mortgages has been surging, the best in three years, but not necessarily translating into borrowers getting approved for loans. what does that mean for getting things back >> i think it's a bit of a backlog. you make an application for a loan, and a few years ago when there was little quality checking, you got a loan right away for zero down.

we want stricter loan standards and maybe they're too strict. now it's a process. we have to expect that banks are double checking, and fanny and freddie are also double and triple checking. so it is going to take longer to get that loan, even at these attractive mortgage rates. >> susie: what do you think that people need to see to feel more comfortable about buying a home >> first of all the price increase is a start. it gives people more confidence. the prices aren't going to continue to deteriorate, and potential home buyers jump in the market and willing to make a big purchase. it's still the big eflt purchase most of us will ever make. the next is job growth. we want to be confident in our income coming forward. we want to be able to make our debt payments in years to come. we have to have some confidence in jobs. that's our shaky point at this juncture in the economy.

if we continue to dip down, we'll be stronger later on. >> susie: thank you so much stephen. appreciate you coming on the program. stephen gallagher of societ generale >> tom: the kaflt tonight, saving some green. >> susie: rising exports and lower oil prices help lead. the smallest u.s. trade deficit in nearly two years. the trade shortfall narrowed by almost 11% in june to just under $43 billion. it's best reading since december of 2010. overall imports fell by 1.5% to almost $228 billion, while exports rose almost 1% to $185 billion. >> tom: even positive news on jobs failed to inspire wall street today. new claims for jobless benefits

fell by 6,000 in the past week to 361,000 claims. they were expected to rise to 370,000. stocks barely budged: the dow fell ten points, the nasdaq rose seven, the s&p added half a point. >> susie: today's lack of interest in stocks might be summer doldrums, or it might be something more serious. since the financial crisis, retail investors have shunned stocks, even as the major market indexes have returned to lofty levels. tonight we explore what it will take for investors to warm up to equities. >> reporter: no matter how you measure it, small investors aren't feeling warm and fuzzy about stocks, at least not lately. trading volume at the new york stock exchange is at a record low. in addition, very little cash has been flowing into stock mutual funds, with most investors much preferring bonds.

financial planner stacy francis says it's no wonder people are down on equities. >> after 2008 they thought they saw it all. unfortunately, we're continuing to see that volatility. if you look at the percentage change in the market on a day to day basis, it looks like someone's having a heart attack. >> reporter: so, what will it take to make retail investors fall back in love with stocks. investment pros have a list of suggestions, but at the top is a cooperative equity market, one that climbs slowly and steadily higher. a little bit of positive energy on main street might help. >> if americans truly feel, feel it in their neighborhood and their community, that the economy is gaining strength and gaining vigor, then that could also induce confidence in the stock market and investor sentiment. >> reporter: others say time heals all wounds, adding investors need to put distance between the negative headlines and their portfolios.

for francis, that distance could be as much as five years. >> it's going to take a long time for people to feel comfortable to jump back into the market because most importantly, they're going to be looking for the volatility that's happening on a daily basis to finally calm down. >> reporter: and, here's one more thought. if bonds start to look ugly, stocks will be more attractive, by comparison. >> another factor at the margin, that could generate greater interest in stocks would be related to a stronger economy would be a rising interest rate environment which for at least a time could lead to depressed bond returns or even losses on a bond portfolio. >> reporter: and finally, most market pros say investors shouldn't wait for an "all clear button" for the stock market. that's because if you blink, you might miss it, and with it some opportunity. suzanne pratt, "n.b.r.," new york. >> tom: tomorrow, we will hear from two individual investors

who have been putting money into the stock market for years through their investment club. dennis roman is new to the group and says that the education. >> i think we have an obligation to watch our own money, and be as aware as what can go wrong as we can be, i think it is safe to be in the market as long as you are engaging in the education which is what the cornerstone of what better investing and the polaris club is about, we are not here for, the club isn't here for the performance the club is here for the education of the partners that are in the club. >> tom: the education seems to be paying of for this mega club who has been successful for nearly two-decades. tomorrow we'll hear more from the members of the polaris investment club tomorrow on n.b.r.

>> susie: all it takes is a quick online search to see how many groups are using polls to track the presidential race. but its getting harder, and more expensive, to produce those results. sylvia hall reports on the business of polling. >> reporter: while the candidates criss-cross the country trying to get your vote, pollsters are hitting the phone lines, looking for your opinion on the race. groups like gallup, pew research, and rasmussen are in high gear this year, checking the pulse of the nation as november approaches. >> the business has grown tremendously. if you look at the time when lou harris was polling for the candidate john kennedy, there were only a few pollsters in the field. today we have more than a dozen pollsters releasing results on a fairly regular basis and so we're inundated with poll findings. >> reporter: but, the polling business is changing. a third of u.s. households only have cell phones, and not landlines.

when pollsters call cell phones, only about 10% of people actually answer all the questions. >> more people are reluctant to talk on their cell phones. we offer people incentives because they're calling people on their cell phone, it's just much more difficult to do. we estimate the average cost of interview is 50% higher in a cell phone versus landline. >> reporter: andrew kohut headed gallup back in the 80's, and now leads the pew research center. he says political polling is just a small part of what these organizations do, and has never brought in much revenue. but it's big business for the firms who poll for political campaigns. so far this year, presidential candidates have spent more than $12.5 million, just on polls, surveys, and research. and back in 2008, after all was said and done, candidates spent more than $43 million on polling. >> it really is a pretty small number of firms that do 90% of the work. >> reporter: pete brodnitz is with the firm heading up polling for president obama. he says the business is getting

creative to handle the changes in technology. that includes cutting costs by using automated phone calls for simple polls, using the internet instead of focus groups to test campaign ads, and sharing polling data among groups supporting the same candidate. >> they're doing things like forming organizations that can sell data to other groups. so instead of people commissioning their own polls, as they has been common in the past, increasingly there are cases where the outside groups will pool together and then they'll share data. >> reporter: while campaign research is up and running now, experts say polling will kick into high gear after labor day, as the presidential election grows closer. sylvia hall, "n.b.r.," washington.

>> susie: the u.s. postal service warned today that it's low on cash. the agency reported a quarterly loss, much worse, almost double, the same period a year ago. the post office lost $5.2 billion in its fiscal third quarter. the big drop comes as first- class mail volumes continuto fall, and the agency is now predicting it will be close to running out of cash next month. the postmaster general continues to call on congress to implement cost-cutting reforms, lawmakers failed to act on the post office's problems before leaving for summer break. >> tom: a day of modest moves for the major stock indices. but even with a small gain, the s&p 500 has put together its longest winning streak since march, up five sessions in a row. the index searched for a steady direction throughout the

session, as it traded in a very narrow range. trading volume moderated a bit from yesterday's pace. 575 million shares on the big board. just under 1.7 billion on the nasdaq. materials up a 0.5%; energy rising 0.4%. hopes of new stimulus for china helped underpin the most economically sensitive areas of the market. leading the dow industrial gainers today was cisco systems. the internet gear manufacturer got endorsements from two brokerages. shares gained 3.1% on heavy volume, taking shares to their highest price since the stiff sell-off in may after a disappointing earnings forecast. goldman sachs added shares to its conviction buy list. piper jaffray raised its rating and price target. the analysts were optimistic about cisco's competitive

position. after the close tonight, yahoo was in focus. a regulatory filing disclosed a possible change in how it could use money from its sale of its chinese site, alibaba. the company originally said it would return most of the money to shareholders. after closing just above $16 per share. the stock sank more than 3.5% in after hours action, trading below $15.50 per share. the company has launched a business strategy review led by new c.e.o. marissa mayer. yahoo would get an estimated $4.2 billion profit from selling its stake in alibaba. also after the close, stronger than expected earnings from semiconductor maker n-vidia. the company continues profiting from its push into mobile phones. earnings were eight cents ahead of estimates. after closing up 3.4%, shares added another 5% in after hours action, trading around $15.50 per share as its outlook was better than expected.

a merger in the energy equipment industry, as the biggest oilfield equipment maker looks to get bigger. national oilwell varco is the buyer, offering $2.5 billion for robbins and myers. robbins and myers shareholders would get $60 per share. robbins and myers stock shot up 27.4% to a new high, closing just shy of the buyout offer price. national-oilwell shares gained a fraction, rising to a three-and- a-half month high. coal stocks saw some heavier volume, as their shares prices pick up from multi-year lows last month. alpha natural resources jumped 15.1%. consol energy gained 6.4%. peabody energy was up 6.3%. the miners have cut back on coal supply as prices dropped. four of the five most actively traded e.t.f.'s were higher. the loser was the financial sector e.t.f., slipping a penny. and that's tonight's "market focus."

>> tom: the hot dry weather through much of the united states is behyped a big jump in global food prices. after falling for three months, the united nations food price index jumped six percent in july. even with the sharp jump, global prices are close to what they were in april by the u.n. gauge. with the drought continues. corn prices continue to climb in the u.s. settling at a new high today. 8.25 per bushel almost, just a penny >> scott shellady joins us from the cme group in chicago.

scott, huge rise in corn prietions laeltly. is it sustainable? >> i think it is sustainable, because ultmaltly we're the king of corn. we're the world's grower of corn. you know what? we just don't have the corn this year. mother nature took a big bite out of us. our farmers are the best farmers in the world, and they can do whatever they can to deliver a decent crop, but this year they had their hands tied, and the heat got to us in a real bad way. >> that's the supply idea. but attack it from the demand point of view. it global demand going to continue to raise these prices that we're seeing. double digit corn prices? >> well, we could. this is what i think, and i've been talking to a lot of people about this. >> over 40 years, corn is almost an inflation proof product. we've been adding more and more bushels per acre since the 50s. the technology built into the seeds nowadays is amazing. you could almost grow them on

a sidewalk except for this year. we've had technology outpacing, outstripping demand. but slowly but surely with china and india coming on board and third world country that have better emerging economies, the demand from those countries has outstripped technology, and for the first time ever, i think over the last two years, we've seen a situation where demand has overtaken technology, and technology just can't keep up. >> tom: you are watching tick by tick this market, and have for the better parliament of two and a half decades. what about a bigger perspective and political impact. we saw food riots in some developing countrys in 2008. we're still below the 2008 prices in terms of food basket. but corn prices are over that already. >> i don'tment to be too alarming. there are things we can possibly do going frtd. we trade cattle and hogs here at the cme group as well.

if you don't have enough grain, what do you do with the cattle? you send them to market. >> longer end prices are higher. if you don't have enough grain to feed your people. what do you do? so we're faceed with a situation where we're going to have to have somebody go without corn this year. we started with a 14 billion bushel crop, and we hear now 11 billion. i'm hearing whisper numbers lower than that. >> tom: scott shellady with us from the pit in chicago. >> susie: tomorrow on "n.b.r." how is the drought impacting the menu at your favorite restaurant, we'll tell you as we continue our look at the u.s. drought and food prices. and our friday "market monitor" guest calls the recent upswing in stocks a pre-presidential rally that's soon to end. he's mark leibovit of vrtrader.com.

u.s. athletes have mined a lot of gold and other precious metal at this summer's london olympics. and while your kids may be inspired to go for the gold, that doesn't mean you should spend a lot of green. here's janet bodnar, of kiplinger's personal finance, with tonight's kids & cash. >> one good thing about the olympic games is that they may inspire your children to get up off the couch and onto the track or into the pool. but if your kids are just starting out, don't over-commit your time or your money until you can gauge whether their interest will survive the closing ceremonies. if your child's request means expensive gym or pool time, do what missy franklin did: start small with a local summer swimming program. or sign up for a weekly class during the school year. if your child is serious enough to bump up the commitment, have her focus on one sport per season. if a sport requires a lot of equipment, think ice hockey,

start with used stuff and trade up if your kids outlast a season or two. don't pay your kids to practice. but if you want to reward their efforts, they could earn credits for time spent practicing that they can exchange for a new tennis racket or soccer bag. and don't be too dazzled by the prospect of olympic gold or a full-ride college scholarship. only a tiny percentage of students receive athletic scholarships. the average amount is less than $10,000 and might not even cover tuition. like those talented young gymnasts walking the beam, your challenge is to encourage your kids to strive for the best while keeping their balance. i'm janet bodnar. >> tom: that's nightly business report for thursday, august 9, i'm tom hudson. good night susie and everyone. >> susie: goodnight tom, we'll see you online at: www.nbr.com and back here tomorrow night.

captioning sponsored by wpbt captioned by media access group at wgbh access.wgbh.org >> join us anytime at nbr.com. there, you'll find full episodes of the program, complete show transcripts and all the market stats. also follows us on our facebook page at bizrpt. and on twitter @bizrpt.

every single bite needed to be tasted. >> wow. >> it's like a great big hug. >> my parents put chili powder in my baby food. >> everywhere all over the table. >> my stomach is g

hi, i'm leslie sbrocco. welcome to "check, please! bay are area". the show where bay area residents review their favorite restaurants. we have three guests and each recommends one of their favorite spots and the other two check them out to see what they think this week we have a vegetarian-friendly show. football coach mike dimaria runs a medical device company. he cinches himself up as he braces for new adventures in eating. as a vegetarian, he's all about supporting good food and wine. and financial