the issues, the personalities, and the stakes with four seasoned reporters. they are maggie haberman of "politico", mark halperin of time, joe klein of time, and john heilemann of new york. >> most people in this country do not know what is in the affordable care act, obamacare. practically no one including wall street knows what's in dodd frank, the financial regulatory reform. most people didn't know it was in the stimulus. this is a guy who gives people tax breaks and doesn't tell them about it i've never met a politician like that before. and so from his, from the obama side of the equation it has been really disappointing because there is no substance there. you know, romney had an opportunity to be the man of

substance and he's chosen not to be. it's one of-- i've done ten of these this is as vac youous a campaign as mark said as i've ever covered. >> politics moves into high gear with the republican convention followed by the democratic convention, next. >> funding for charlie rose was provided by the following.

>> rose: additional funding provided by these funders. >> and by bloomberg, a provider of multimedia news and information services worldwide. >> tonight a special edition of charlie rose. >> we're in tampa, florida for the republican national convention. the convention gets its real start tomorrow night with the keynote speak by governor chris christie of new jersey. then on wednesday night paul ryan, and then on thursday night, governor mitt romney takes stage after an introduction speech by marco rubio the senator from florida. they will be talking about this election campaign and

the argument they want to make to the country. and also something about the nominee who will lead the party. we have a conversation this evening about politics. this election year. with mark halperin of "time" magazine, john heilemann of "new york" magazine, joe klein of "time" magazine, and maggie haberman of "politico". it was recorded on thursday of last week, but it really is about the politics of this season by four seasoned reporters. >> tell me where you think this race is right now on the eve of the republican convention where there is an opportunity for mitt romney to define himself. >> well, it's where it's been for a while. it's a close race. it's, you know, a few points and it's a few points in about six or seven different crucial swing states. and the cake is pretty much baked. it's going to take, i think, the very best speech of mitt romney's life, maybe even,

you know, the very best speech of some better speakers life to change the-- to change the dynamic. and it's going to be really hard for him. especially given the fact that he's had a very sluggish and not very inspiring summer. >> maggie? >> i wish hi something dramic to add but i think that's about right. >> rose: klein was right. >> we have had a very static race. >> klein was right. >> who knew. >> we have had ray static race for a while and i think things have to go perfect for the republicans next week and that will just keep things level. i think if mitt romney doesn't give a terrific speech f somebody veers off message f things go dramatically off course i think that is a huge problem. they need to get past this aiken thing, they need to get past medicare and they need a reset heading into september. if we get to october and things still are where they are, that is not a great thing for mitt romney. >> john? >> i will second joe klein

and maggie haberman. >> the romney campaign, republicans in general in the race have one thing to point to over and over again which gives them hope, which is the president can't get over 50% either in approval rating or polling. he has been at 48 for a long time. on the other hand the romney campaign has spent a lot of money this summer as the obama campaign has. if you think about the republicans broadly, super pacs and romney spending in the last couple of months they have outspent ot bama forces and they haven't really moved the needle against president obama. i think there is a very small sliver of the electorate that is really undecided. it's about 4 or 5%. if you think about the bigger swing of people who say they are for someone but are probably still pervade-- persuadable it probably gets them up to 10%, 9%. but that is a small amount in play. it a huge moment for romney because he has taken on so much baggage that's been inflicted on him by ot bama

campaign over the course of the summer. the country still doesn't know that much about him apart from what they heard from democrats. so he has now got the country by the lapels. and it's a challenge that looks a lot like you know the one that george her burb walker bush faced in 1988 where he was in a worse position in terms of the poll. he was way behind when he went into his convention. but he was like i-- it was a big moment there was so much negative perception around bush and he was able to turn it around. the question is whether romney can do the same thing. >> rose: read my lips. >> in a spanking new issue of time which you have before you. >> rose: the mind of m, t. >> i have a piece talking to the strategist for romney about rom know's long to-do list starting with the convention. what he needs to get done to put himself in a position to try to win this it's all about the electoral college. and the biggest problem he has now even if he ticks off everything he needs at the convention, speech of his life, these other things, do well in the debates, et cetera. he has a big electoral

college problem. which is right now he doesn't have enough states in play to have a realistic path to nomination unless obama just collapse. unless the president's numbers turn out to be stuck at 48 and romney wins it in the end because he gets the bulk of the undecided. pennsylvania and michigan do not look in play right now. ohio is surprisingly strong for obama it is not a great romney state if you look at the demographic breakdown of the state. he has not been a great urban candidate, a great rural candidate, a great suburban candidate. if can to the put any of those three states in play, ohio, pennsylvania or michigan, his chances of winning are very small. because it's very hard to get to 270 electoral votes, with those three f the president wins those three and all the states he's almost certain to win leaving the half dozen over battleground as side, the president is at 270. >> if that's the case, barack obama owes steve ratner an awful lot. >> yeah. >> rose: because of the bailout. >> because of the bailout. i have spent a lot of time

in ohio this week, a week in ohio during my road trip. and the fact is that every-- you know, in lorraine, in lloydstown, ohio, the chevy cruz is being assembled. that factory was practically shut down three years ago, now they are running triple shifts and all of the components are made in ohio as well. it hasn't been many additional new jobs but if that hadn't happened, you know, the bottom would have fallen out. >> rose: let me ask this. where we are-- are we where we are because obama has been strong or simply because romney has never been able to get rolling? >> more the latter than the former i would say. >> the president, one-story here that is persistent that the obama people talk about, the president has a floor that is very solid and stable. and you've seen it almost throughout his presidency. at his worst moments he was in the high 30s, low 40s. now, you almost see almost no meaningful poll in a battleground state or national poll where he is below 47.

and that's a position of great strength. mitt romney is not been a great candidate, ot bama people some some improvement in some areas. they suspect he will be good in the debates but he's to the been foremidable in a way to take advantage of the unemployment and other aspects of the economy. >> and mark's 100% right about, a bomba has been incredible, the inelasticity. you think about a guy with his poll numbers. even the 38 number, that gallop put him at which is the record low, no one believes that, their polling says he has never been below 44, never above 48 or 49 except for a couple minutes after bin laden was killed. you know, that's-- you know, it has a limitation because he is very rarely been above 50. but to stay in that band through really almost 40 years gives him a real durability. the things that's not moved, we talked about the static race, the one that almost nothing has moved. a lot of things have not moved. obama continues to lead, a little more in most battleground states, most swing states than he has nationally which gives the obama campaign a sense of confidence.

the other thing that gives them confidence is the one thing that has moved which is that romney's unfavourable perception in the polling has gone steadily upward over the course of the summer. >> unfavor ability. >> he has become less popular since he won the republican nomination this summer. we could talk all day long about the fairness of some of the attacks on the obama side, all day about the media and dynamics that went in play. but the bottom line is mitt romney got less popular since he won the nomination, with key voting segments of the electorate and has done nothing to fix the huge problems he had with hispanics, with women, with a lot of key elements of the electorate. things have either gotten worse for him with those groups and with the groups he was hoping to make gains with, his personal popularity has taken a drubbing over the course of the summer. and he's entering this convention by many metrics the most unpopular republican presidential no knee of our lifetime. >> i think the president will also owe his super pac which he was not interested

in having help from, did not want to have fund raise. >> rose: he appreciates his super pac now. >> i think rurt now he does because his super pac has run a series of very effective, targeted ads. they ran a series of very, very strong effective, brutal ads about mitt romney's time at bain using workers from factories that were closed or plants that were closed. and i think those have had, especially in ohio which is one of the five battlegrounds where they have been up consistently and in specific markets those have had a real impact on mitt romney's numbers. to john's point also about the various groups that mitt romney has not fixed his problems with, women have been-- there is a huge gender gap, on both sides. there is one for obama with men t there is one for mitt romney with women. obama's campaign is very mindful of his and they do try to work on it. mitt romney's campaign has not done much about the female gender gap since the primaries, since february, since he was facing rick santorum who presented him with opportunities to tack more towards the center. and he didn't. and you are saying with this

todd aiken thing right now, the missouri senate candidate who mitt romney is trying to distance himself from, there did present an opportunity. the party responded forcefully to him on trying to get him off the ticket. but some people believe there was a moment for mitt romney to also say we are moving to extremes-- . >> rose: to say this is not who we are. >> and that is not quite what happened. >> it is interesting. i was in new hampshire and watched romney and ryan together. by the way, there is a guy named paul ryan we haven't even mentioned yet. and it's interesting that ten days, two weeks later, the impact he has had on this race is next to zero. but-- . >> rose: not even in wisconsin. >> well, a little bit in wisconsin. but nationally, maybe to the negative in some places because of the word voucher and the word medicare, do not go well together. especially in a place like florida. and his plan is to voucherize medicare. >> rose: the country doesn't know whether it wants obamacare but it knows it wants medicare, that is what the message it. >> they definitely want

medicare. >> could i just say that on the day that the todd aiken story broke, i watched both these guys give stump speeches. not one word from either one of them about the so-called social issues. and you know, romney was trying, is trying to move toward the center. but his party just won't let him. >> you guys all talked to people inside the romney campaign. if you would lay out all these arguments as i'm sure you have, what would they say? >> unlike ability is going up. these issues are against you and you've done nothing to fix them, hispanics, women, what would they say in they say you've got it all wrong because we're waiting for our moment, our moment hasn't gone. we've got tons of money. our campaign will redefine, people aren't paying attention, what else? >> those are some of the things they would say. i think in their mind the, you mentioned a bunch of things. you talked about the fact that they are going to have a huge spending, the

republicans at large will have a huge spending advantage in the fallment would you rather have a spending advantage in the fall. >> they believe that can make a difference. >> they believe it can make a difference. it is a card they have to play. you know their model i think in their minds has always been 1980, where ronald reagan, jimmy carter was an unpopular but still leading in the polls. the popular incumbent, still leading in the polls. time of economic malaise a lot of people had decided that after four years they were not, they didn't dislike jimmy carter, but they were ready, they were open to an opportunity to change. there was this undecided group, there were days, if you have been with somebody, still undecided, and in that race you had one de bathe. >> and when that -- >> he didn't want to debate. >> and when that debate happened people looked at ronald reagan and heard he was a crazy right wring wacko. >> dr. strange love. >> and they saw a reasonable guy on stage and all of the undecided at that moment, basically all of it flipped

to reagannd he won easily in 1980. i think in their minds, there are a lot of differences. they don't go around claiming that mitt romney is ron all reagan in terms of performance skills, because that would be ludicrous but they think that dynamic could play out again. that the economy in the end is such a weight on president obama that people have heard such negative things that mitt romney doesn't con frm-- conform to the stereotypes and when the they get to see him, that there is going to be in movement where they are-- most of the undecided vote will come to them that is their theory of the case. >> does it have a possibility of being true. >> i think it does have a possibility of being true but only if mitt romney performs well. the obama campaign is extraordinarily skillful. i didn't cover the cter campaign but i would bet you that the obama campaign is more skillful than the carter campaign was at going, at going hard and defining romney. and in a lot of these battleground states particularly the industrial midwest romney is a wall street figure at a time of

populism and anger at wall street, they will hammer that home. they have cards to play on that that they are holding back. but romney, as maggie said at the beginning, romney has to do almost everything right and the people around them. they have to have good luck this thing with congressman aiken is bad luck. they have to have good luck the rest of the way to get back to talking about the economy. you know, we said months ago, every day take out your calendar at the end of the day and right down was this a day that we talked about, where the die lock was about the obama economic record or about anything else. and most of the summer there have been very few days this sum wrer it has been, the debate has been about the obama economic record. to go back to that question what would the romney people say. they will say what gets discussed here and on cable tv and in twitter and everything else is not the reality. that is what the chattering class is talking about. the reality is high gas prices, unemployment, four years above 8% unemployment, and that reality as long as

governor romney seems like an acceptable alternative will guide what happens. >> the reality is that most people don't follow this as closely as we do until the fall campaign. and then come the debates which in my experience have been the single most important events of any given presidential campaign. the reagan example is a great example. but what happens in these debates, what's absolutely crucial is that the public makes this subliminal judgement about who they feel more comfortable having in their living room for the next four years. the presidency is the most int at that time-- intimate office we have, lives in our houses, lives in our homes. and you know, romney's problem is that he's not ronald reagan. reagan was really comfortable, you know, living in people's kitchens. >> rose: with all this money and all the television ads that can be done, can they change that? let's assume a good political campaign, a good speech at the convention, let's assume a great keynote as obama had in 2004, could

that start something that has the america public redefine mitt romney. >> yes, but it's going to require perfection. and also on the-- ad front it will require ads that break out. most of these ads you have seen from the outside groups and republican side and mitt romney's campaign have largely focused on the economy is terrible or solindra or some version of-- people already know the economy is bad. they don't need a political ad that reminded them of that. those all blend together. we only add on the republican side is one from the rnc nip expenditure which focused on disappointment and it's okay to make a change. >> rose: how about are you better off today than you were four years ago. >> i think that can work if it is delivered effectively in an ad but they have to the done that yet. >> to maggie's point to go back to the speech again, you know, and to the debates but the speeches, you know, the reason to be pessimistic, if you are a republican about mitt romney is that we

have not seen him grow as an or a ter. we watch back in 2008 when hillary clinton and barack obama on successive primary nights topped each other week after week and week, and they upped their game. by the time they got to june, both of those guys, every primary night were giving great speeches. mitt romney won a lot of primaries in 2008-- or 2012. and apart from the speech he gave in the new hampshire primary, he didn't give a single talk that was either memorable, a single speech that was memorable nor did he demonstrate any growth from month-to-month. de get better. the competition didn't make him -- >> de have some-- de have -- >> why can't you over the course, if that is all you have been doing, gain some kind of confidence. >> most of what he has been do something fund-raising for the most six months. he has not been doing a lot of practice for the oratory. he was barely out on the stump for much of july. he was off for a week. >> rose: we can look back and say they made a series

of misjudgements. >> he had some excellent debates during the republican primaries. he had some really good and funny, spontaneous moments. he had some clunkers as well, when he tried to launch a $10,000 bet. but you know, he's a very good debater. and this thing could turn on a dime in one minute. >> rose: with respect to the economy, everybody that i ask will say okay t depends on the economy. but the economy is pretty much set. we're not going see a significant improvement in this economy unless something dramatic happens in europe. no one is predicting it will get that much better. but a disaster is not necessarily in the cards either. if the economy just percolates where it is now, is it a nonfactor? >> well, if you look at the economic statistics, for a long time if you take all the statistics that come in, sort of there were two bad ones for every one promising one. that slipped now there are more positive numbers than negative. but no one things-- think tess white house that you will see substantial

improvement. >> between now and november. >> yeah. and if you look at the possible outside factors, if there is something with iran or gas prices going higher and maybe something affected by europe, there's possible there could be some more bad news. but look as i said before, the president during all this bad news, his numbers have stayed pretty high. >> the choice of putting paul ryan on the ticket at a time after a year and a half of saying from their point of view, the romney campaign's point of view, that this will be a referendum election about barack obama's independent stewardship and management to then pick someone like paul ryan who is mostly known positively and negatively as being someone who is mostly not about purely the economic but as about the size and scope of government, it's about entitlements t is about taxesment and those things all affect the economiment but now we're having a conversation that's not really about barack obama's failed n their view, economic stewardship. we are having a conversation about what the proper role of government, how big should medicare be, should we have a voucher system.

those conversation. at is a huge shift because is the romney campaign saying we acknowledge what the obama campaign said all along, that this is a choice election an not just a pure remember ren dumb. >> rose: if that is the choice they think they can win. >> or they want weren't winning the previous one. they reached the conclusion they were not winning on-- . >> rose: they needed to join a term, a game change. and ryan hasn't been it, so there is one thing out there. and it's in the interview that romney did with rick standingel and michael crowley. when they ask him about banks being too big to fail, he expresses some real concern about that. and there have been a number of conservative economists and other conservatives who have said that one thing that romney could do to switch this around and to run against his wall street fat cat image would be to come out for breaking up the five big banks. the only candidate who has done that this year has been a republican, jon huntsman, you remember him.

but i don't know whether romney has the gutteds or belief to go it. that is something that could change the dynamic this race as well. >> rose: do you guys agree with that, if he talked about breaking up the banks and maybe the renewal of glass steagle that we would have -- >> he is not be in favor of glass stealing, he says that. >> rose: i see. >> there is a lot of substantive and stylistic things that would be involved in that choice. they have failed to make him be a happy warrior. and i think that's what he needs to be, maybe above all us. >> rose: the nature of a happy person. >> one of the upsides of ryan is when he has campaigned with ryan so far he has been a more relaxed, a happier warrior out there. but in our interview, and in other media appearances he's done, even sometimes with friendly outlets, conservative outlets, he's to use a good mormon word he's kvetchy and he get as knowed. >> rose: i didn't know that was a mormon word. >> he has not learned to turn all the stuff-- all the stuff he doesn't want to talk b he is not

demonstrating a ca passit ot turn telephone. another thing, he's on the cover of time this week. the person who is not been very visible is ann romney, who all of us thought would be an extraordinarily helpful asset, to humanize him and make him more relaxed. >> rose: why is that? >> it's a good question. she spent part of her summer at the olympics, an important thing for her. >> rose: that was like 10 days. >> we'll see how she does at the convention. >> she is not going to be aired on prime time that is a very overlooked. >> she hadn't been-- everybody thought she would be such a tremendous weapon for him. she's not that good, i mean really. her speech-- . >> rose: she was pretty good in the public appearances. >> her speeches have been too partisan and they haven't established him as a human being enough. i mean that is her role is to establish him as a --. >> rose: i just found it amazing, here is a man with a very good education, a wonderful family, and he can't establish himself, your words, as an interesting human being.

>> these are, look, i beat this drum for a long time. he is i guy who has cared more about two things than anything else in his life. the most animating aspects of his life have been making money, like being a profit maker, doing capitalism. >> rose: success,. >> i'm to the being critical this animates him. he has been an extraordinarily successful capitalist. and he's been a really devout mormon, cares about his church enormously. he is deeply awkward talking about both of those two things. and there is no candidate in the world who when sudden, here say candidate, he has a lot of great candidates but the two things he really cares about most besides his family, he's kind of awkward talking about. >> rose: but if you read the stories about what they intend to do at the convention, those are two things they intend to speak to. >> they say that, but we have been hearing that for the better part of this year. >> the one thing i would say also and mark gets to this in his column about ann romney is she has been allowed to be in these

situations and interviews where she ends up playing defense for the campaign on much more troublesome issues like the taxes and so forth, which are not things she should be talking about. that is not what they need her for. >> can i say something else. i've always been a big fan of the individual mandate in health insurance, when romney went and enacted that in massachusetts i went out there and spent a lot of time with the guy. and he was charming. he was fluent, he knew exactly what he was doing. i said to-- he was really smart. i said to myself, god this guy could be president of the united states some day. but he can't talk about that either. he has had to ton himself into a pretzel in order to be the nominee of this party. >> rose: well s that part of the problem. >> that is. >> rose: his basic instincts are not where his party is. >> no. >> bart gelman's cover story along with the interview is romney's time at bain. and one of the things he reports for the first time is romney colleagues says that he did not want bain investing in companies related to firearms, had

that come out during the nomination fight that might have been a problem for him. now if romney would talk about that, and explain himself, that could be a revealing moment, an important moment, but that is not him. >> rose: -- let me go and understand where the room is on paul ryan. was it a smart choice in the end or not, maggie? >> i think it was-- i think is tough to tell to do a copout there. but i think that all of the picks were flawed. i think that had he been the most animate bid paul ryan than i think we have been by any of these people. and i think given his problems that is pretty important. but he comes with baggage they haven't finished litigating. >> rose: one of the things dow here is the republican base is energized. >> absolutely. >> rose: and he has done that and he's energized. >> i agree with that. >> rose: but so do you agree that -- >> i don't know a republican strategist who doesn't think that putting paul ryan on the ticket makes it harder for mitt romney to win.

>> going back there is no path to 270 that does not include winning florida. it is a state that was relatively weak state for obama where romney was relatively strong. the medicare thing, validly or not makes that statement more problematic for romney. and it is a state he cannot become president without winning. >> rose: it is within the margin of error, is it not. >> it is. but as i say-- it's tilting in the wrong direction for, mr. itt. i think it will be very hard. maybe you can say it is demagogue ree but as a political matter paul ryan on the ticket makes it harder to win florida than some of the other pick was. >> the republican base is the problem, not the solution to winning the presidency for mitt romney right now. and if he had gone with-- . >> rose: when you have a base that gets the out the vote it will help you. >> but if they only represent 47% of the population in the end, you have to get that 3% in the middle. he has done absolutely nothing, nothing to appeal though those people.

>> economy as-- what has romney done to sell them. ef reeve single opportunity he whats had to take a moderate stance during the campaign he didn't do it. when bill clinton was trying to change the dynamic there, he took moderate stances that up set his base on issues like crime and welfare. here romney, you know, romney hasn't done that at all. if he had doubled down on who he is, if he had said, if he had picked rob portman and said this guy knows more about the federal budget and federal government than anybody i know, the two of us, that's our job. our job is to get this thing back on track and that's why i picked him that would have at least doubled down on the message that he's going to make things better. >> rose: would it have put ohio in play. >> yeah i thought before he made the pick that ryan would be a bad pick politically. after the first few days i thought this is work out better than i thought it would. >> rose: and today? >> today i think people did

not talk about is ryan qualified to be vice president. i thought he is a young g and younger looking guyment that has not been much of the debate. if he gets to the fall he does well in dedebate people will say that say a good governing pick, a good pick for the right reasons, i think this could work out to be a net plus. >> did the romney team see this as a roll of the dice? >> that's a great question. if you go back to senator portman who i thought would be picked and for the reasons joe just said, no one has really answered the question. why was ryan his pick over portman. it was a roll of the dice on a number of levels including engaging the medicare debate. but i don't know that this were as ready for that i don't know that they anticipated that becoming such a strong part of the debate when they chose him. >> i think he also chose him because they were comfortable with him, they liked each other. he tested him on the field and found these are two people -- >> and would like to govern with him, which in the past has usually worked out. >> nor were they, i think prepared at all for the

other things now happening. because of congressman senate candidate aiken is having now paul ryan's very, very conservative views on social and cultural issues center stage. the obama campaign, as soon as ryan was picked they were going to do that regardless of aiken. aiken blew it into the national consciousness. but they weren't prepared to have that debate and to go to what maggie said earlier, about fixing problems with constituency. let's talk about the gender gap. the war on women that the democrats successfully waged for a while to drive that gap wider had started to abate it was the one place romney was making up a little ground was with wismt he has not moved the african-american, young voters or the spanish but with women it was starting to close a little bit. ryan is a huge problem in that area because we are going hear about the fact that paul ryan was a cosponsor, with congressman aiken of a bill that tried to classify a certain kind of rape as forceful rape. we will hear that for the next two months hammered by ot bama campaign. >> and by planned parenthood and all democrat in --

>> and the u.n.. >> i think the romney campaign was not prepared for that. >> i also think they underestimated the extent to which the democrat was go after tying romney ryan to unpopular republicans on capitol hill which aiken also helps withment but that is something you will hear all year long. and you can say what you want about mitt romney's brow tip on popularity, the republican congress is very, very unpopular. so you can associate the ticket with that group, and romney has no, not much of a place to go. because you cannot say paul ryan is not part of that group. >> rose: what do we say about joe biden. >> i think joe biden has not had a great press week or great press previous week. look, i that i that republicans feel like there hasn't been enough attention paid to joe biden and the chain's comment he made it was very controversy. i do think it got a fair amount of coverage but i think ups the ante. he is a problem that the obama campaigns knows is a problem and yet they still think that the pluses outweigh the negatives. they think he is an effective surrogate, they

don't have too many effective surrogates either in terms of white classing working voters. they are focus very heavily on the debate. >> rose: you think the debate could turn the campaign. >> it could rernl not help. they worry -- dote campaigns have been very reactive this whole time. i think that everybody would agree with me on that and this is no different. this is something that is sort of an uncontrollable thing. what biden did was not something they expected him to do. and it became something on the week they were hoping to have a great frame of biden versus ryan, ryan too youthful, not ready to be president, instead we were talking about was joe biden race baiting by talking about putting y'all back in chains. >> is barack obama ready to be president? >> well, that's why you're not hering democrats make that point too effectively right now. because that is the flip side. they're not ready to go to -- >>. >> rose: he has done so well on national security, the argument goes. and that less experience in that than anything and yet that's we are has given his

most confidence -- >> he had more interest in it. >> i mean when i would talk to him before that, during the 2007, '08 period that is the stuff he was always most personally animated by. >> it is an amazing thing this biden think. vice presidential debates generally don't matter. four years ago the biden-palen debate was more watched than any of the bama-mccain debates in terms of audience it was seen to be a very big deal. before paul ryan was picked, this debate was not going to matter. if they had picked rob portman who would have kbard biden-portman debate. now we have joe biden debating against paul ryan who is by most reasonable reckonings he is like the idea lodge, ballast of the romney ryan ticket. and the democrats, obama and biden are going to talk about ryan for the next two months. the only point of actual direct engagement with paul ryan will be that night on that debate stage. and will it change the election? who knows but a lot of people will pay attention to it. so the pressure on bidesen

extraordinarily high which goes back to the original point of why they picked ryan. because now ryan at least has a shot of changing the dynamic a little bit in that debate. i don't think as john was saying that a portman-biden debate would have done that. >> rose: go ahead. >> no, no, i'm great. >> rose: all right. i want to make this point. there are a lot of people, in terms-- and they always ought to be made in politics t is what the people are going to vote say rather than people like us or people who write think and maggie-- having said that you have neil ferguson saying he went to this meeting on the cover story in "newsweek", saying he went to this meeting and said to himself paul ryan ought to be president. you have charles great hammer saying there is the future of the republican party, you know this is the guy that can really deretune-- define the republican party. there is something about paul ryan that impresses people within the republican party. >> he's an impressive guy. and part of what the convention will be about is introducing people to his

story. people don't know his personal story that has elements of it that people will find attractive. his election scrambles whatever happens going forward. because if governor romney wins, paul ryan will be a huge part of next four years. if governor romney loses, paul ryan becomes the front-runner or a front-runner i should say for, to run in four years. and people knew we run for president some day. but this really advances him to the head of the class. >> rose: some say he wanted to run this year. >> that's right. and he is through his work on capitol hill, he's enunciated a certain set of principleses and ideas and pieces of legislation. he has not been up until now on a national stage havi to be them attic and big and broad. and we'll see over the next few months how emerges from this, win or lose, as a figure who can communicate to a mass audience. famous and with a broader platform that he has ever had. >> rose: so he could be a big winner even if romney loses. >> he will be. >> i give him credit for raising formally untouchable

issues like medicare and social security. >> rose: would you agree they should not be untouchable. >> they should not be untouchable. but his version of what to do with them is i think dead wrong. and i think that as a thinker, he's vastly overrated. many of his ideas, the most important ideas have been tried and they failed like supply-side economics. >> and as the guy being given-- given credit he is vastly overrated. >> rose: he is not specific about the kind of deductions he would eliminate. >> and he's not talking about social security. >> rose: and did not support at the time did not support bowles simpson even though he was on the commission. >> and did the stimulus. the one footnote i would say to what mark said and i absolutely agree with you about how he will emerge from this he will emerge most likely in good shape because conservatives consider him one of them because conservative thinkers like the bill crystals, the rich lowries of the world are all giving him protective gel around him. >> in terms of -- >> he should be the pick.

>> in terms of his brand but i do think as mark says he is on a national stage. he is going to get a look and veting that he hasn't had before. and you saw it not on budget yesterday but on social issues which is not what he is known for but for which as john said he's very conservative. he was asked about this forcible rape bill that he signed on to that aiken also was a part of last year. his answer was rape is rape. and he thinks that mitt romney's position on abortion which is din than his own is a step in the right direction. that raises other questions. because that's different than his opinion. and so i think you will start seeing that if he starts giving more interviews. he has yet to do a press avail in the real way with the press traveling with him for two weeks now. if he starts answering more questions, you will get more questions of that nature. >> rose: . >> if this guy is the future of the republican party i think there are going to be a lot of happy democrats. in my experience-- . >> rose: you don't reject the idea that a lot of leading republican opinio

opinion-makers -- >> i kind of object to calling bill crystal a thinker, he's a tactician. but to me, the most creative part, policy period for the republican party was in the early 90 osee when they came up with ideas like the individual mandate, like you know, school choice, like welfare reform. they, you know, they were a really valuable force in this country at that point. and right now i don't see any interesting ideas coming out. >> rose: here is one of-- you would say look, i got out front with a plan, maybe it's not a perfect plan but i got my plan out there and said some of the things and it's not specific in some thinks. where is the president's plan. >> the president has-- the president has a plan. i mean he has put forward a budget with all kinds of detail in it. that exists. you can say that it didn't go anywhere and it is politically unfeasible but it is out there, laid out in detail. he said what he wants to do on tax. we know what the president's policy is on taxes. paul ryan has taken the position, mark says he is

given credit for, on tough choices. he wears that mantle of the guy i am the guy of tough choices, of confronting the challenges we must challenge. then he sits with reporters and people say well tell us about, if are you going to do these things to the tax code, tell us what the deductions are, you will limit. three big pots, health care, home mortgage, charity. which are the ones. he says that has to go to the ways and means committee. we have to have process, hearing, et cetera. i will tell you the two things, it sounds like someone who isn't hearing the mantle in an honest way of being the candidate of courage and candor but also sounds like a kochman. it sounds very-- i will come back to this, but let me finish, its reason i think the debate matters with him and bidesen that that is kind of the question. i mean right now the expectations of the conservative world are paul ryan is going to destroy joe biden, rye an is brilliant, joe bidesen an idiot. if what happens is paul ryan gets up o for the first time on a big huge national tv stage and comes across like a congressman which is what he has been, and joe biden

does his human thing, it's possible given the way expectations are set, it's possible biden could win that debate and that will do a lot of damage to paul ryan's credibility with conservatives f he loses the debate they all think he should win. >> rose: let me touch on other things. we have all followed campaigns before. how is this campaign different or is it? in terms of -- >> it's less. it's iron in with two of the more serious people who have run for president of late, who care about policy, in politics for the right reasons this is the most vac uous and superficial debate with wars going on, a huge economic crisis, because of new media, because of the closeness of the race, the negativity, because the candidates haven't reigned their stats in, because of super pacs, the gap between the seriousness of the challenges we face and the lack of seriousness of the daily dialogue is stunning to me. >> and the visibility of the tactics, i would say too,

there have always been tactics in campaigns. there are always a part of a broader message or part of-- it's not quite so visibly out there for to you see. i mean you're seeing. i did a piece with a colleague about the smallness of this campaign and you saw it at this press conference that david axelrod did in boston that got disrupted. that was sort of more standard, he is a senior op rattive but then you had the mitt romney campaign bus driving around the venue where president obama was giving a speech, honking. you're seeing that kind of thing and that is what is getting shoved to reporters pushed as a message. less about specifics, less about sort of where they want to take the country. in both places while i agree with john you know what the president wants to do. that is also not, i would say, what his campaign is talking about either. >> well, to find out what the president actually wants to do, you have to read the fine print. i mean this guy hasn't been a really good leader. i mean i agree with many of his policies. and in many ways he's been more responsible than his

opponents. but he hasn't explained himself. most people in this country do not know what is in the affordable care act, obama care. practically no one, including wall street knows what's in dodd frank, the financial regulatory reform. most people didn't know what was? the stimulus. this is a guy who gives people tax breaks and doesn't tell them about it. i've never met a politician like that before. and so from his, you know, from the obama side of the equation, it has been really disappointing because there's no substance there. you know romney had an opportunity to be its man of substance and he's chosen not to be telephone. it's one of-- i've done ten of these this is as vac youous a campaign as mark said as i've ever covered. >> thursday morning john and i went to a briefing in washington, six senior obama advisors just talking in general about the state of the campaign. i asked them what are things the president will talk about in the campaign in terms of deficit reduction besides raising taxes on the wealthiest americans t say pretty big issue, how do you deal with the fiscal cliff. >> the answer is well he

will raise taxes on the wealthiest americans and he has already cut a lot that is what he will talk about. >> there must be more things, what will he cut more. >> nothing. he will say obama care is going to reduce the deficit. >> rose: you can make a case that all of us is responsible that we don't demand more and write more and s that at every breath. >> i wouldn't say that of you or anybody at this table. but maybe as a class, as a group for sure. but it is difficult to do. we don't have very much access to the candidates. the people who speak for them just don't engage. ands' hard for us to create forums to get the public to see the lack of answers in the age in which we live. >> the president's briefing with reporters the other day is the first one he had done in weeks. and that was because it was fortuitously timed between aiken and that scandal also one thing that would facilitate it is if we lived in a time when prominent politician was challenge candidates or presidential candidates of their own party, saying publicly and

privately we really need to engage in this the fiscal cliff is coming. but that doesn't happen because of part sanship. no democrat will say to the president publicly, we really need to be talking about this, with the exception of erskine bowles and simpson. >> rose: if you were writing a book about this campaign, imagine that. >> in a purely hypothetical way rses and let's assume that you have already thought about what the opening scene is going to be, what would it be. >> probably this round table. >> i'm sure the question was for joe or maggie. >> dow like this question. >> the question is what theme, what moment what gives definition to the 2012 campaign so far so that you want to say to your readers, you know, this is where i want to start you on a journey to explore what happened there 2012. >> based on what you know now. >> i have to give you two ward tv answer, stay tuned. >> if i were-- if i were

writing a novel. >> you want to be equally coy or dow want to show some boldness and-- tom sawyer. >> i want to show no boldness what so ever. i will say that somebody said recently just forget about a scene, i mean i do think and this actually goes to your previous question about what's different. you know, there's-- somebody said in the press the other day, i don't even know who it was. someone said that the day that we look back on this election if obama win, the day that he did immigration announcement this spring and politicized it, historically we may look back and say thawas the day barack obama won the election. >> rose: because it showed what he intended to do. >> no, because there is a new american electorate. and hispanic vote is now a decisive important part of the electorate and at that poment obama's standing with hispanics, mitt romney was always in trouble but he was

going to face a vicious, negative campaign among hispanics. obama was, attacking him for being too conservative in terms of deportation, attacking the economic policy in the center, among gay marriage from the right. all designed to try to drive hispanic turnout down not mud so, that he couldn't win with that huge important electoral constituency. when he made that move, he was doing two things. he was one trying to gin up the hispanic vote but also trying to put out saying you are not going to be able to run this negative campaign against me. i will show every hispanic person in the country what my values are, and i will do something concrete for them today. and it makes it almost impossible for the romney campaign to fix their problem with hispanics or to make, to damage obama's image with hispanics. if the numbers are -- >> that is the advantage of the auto bailout it is something that happened, that affected-- but if i were to write a n nvel about this, i would, you know, i would open it with a scene between a character inspired

by mitt romney and a character inspired by ann romney at the breakfast table. and the mitt romney character would be saying honey, do we really have to send the horse over to the olympics this year. or do we really have to go ahead with the four story garage? we're running for president. >> rose: do we need elevators. >> i would actually, i would begin with one of the two meeting that bill clinton and barack obama had have had. >> rose: because? >> because i think that a lot of what you are seeing, bill clinton has become a dominant figure in this campaign on both sides, romney's campaign has tried using him. bama now has an ad with bill clinton talking about obama as a continuation of his plan, this was unimaginable four years ago, a very different election. >> rose: saying again, a continuation. >> of his own policies from however many decades ago. >> rose: he annoints barack obama as a continuation of him. >> yes. and to john's point about the move in terms of immigration w what was interesting about that was obviously in terms of the specific section. o of the electorate, but

also that was one of the few time vus seen obama play politics as sort of swinging for singles as opposed to trying to hit home runs every time that was the first time. >> that is a very good point. >> also a hallmark of bill clinton. >> correct. >> another thing that it was, one of the things i say on romney's to-do list is obama in that moment beside the things that have been said, showed his heart and did something bold and dominated the news cycle. that is a lot easier for an incumbent to do. romney has ratherly in his presidential campaigns said i'm going to say something big and bold and it is what i believe and i know it will dominate the day because it's big and bold. i think he's going to-- republicans i have talked to said he has to find things like that. he has to seize the stage. >> rose: do they have a suggestion for him? >> one person said wa, does he believe, what's the core of him that he feels is important enough to take a big stand.

>> gun control, i still think it's break up the big banks. >> rose: you think that will do it. >> if he from willing to do. but he hasn't been willing. >> think about the people that funded his campaign where he comes from culturally in the financial wfermentd i can't imagine him ever -- i totally agree with you, might be a game changer but i can't manage him doing it. >> rose: okay, hispanics will be a huge factor. >> you talk to some republicans now and they say this problem can't be fixed. if it this were a problem in any presidential election in the future it would be determinive, if we couldn't fix it but that there is still one last dominating the white vote election left that the republicans can win. >> and women because we've mentioned that. >> the argument that you hear them, its only argument about women seems to be look, it's the economy effects women as well. that's our argument for bim. >> yeah. >> they say his pan esks too. they say that the economy is an overarching issue. again, that is what republicans say and the question of whether

hispanics will be enthused enough to come out for the president. i think he has solved that problem but it is still an open question to go and talk about the electoral map. barack obama wins nevada, he wins new mexico, he wins iowa, he wins virginia. he wins a bunch of states. you you put together the hispanic map for barack obama we are takes advantage of what steams likely to be a 70, right now i think it's about 70 to 28ment romney is not even over 30, when most people in the republican party think you have to be close to 40 to win. he's under 30. if obama wins the states where the hispanic vote is large, he doesn't have to win ohio. he doesn't have to win, i mean you could win, you could be a democratic president who wince, you don't even have to win florida. you could win just that western pass and still lose ohio and florida and still be elected president. that is another turn of the crystal in how hard it is for romney to win. >> rose: they better be staying up all weekend

writing a speech, hadn't they. october surprise so, look at the world. >> i think that there is one foreign policy sho out there that could be very big. we're coming to a climax in the talks with iran about their nuclear program. so far the russians and the chinese have stood with us. and every detail in these talks, the pressure is tremendously on the iranians, the deal is on the table, and the question is going to come up in september whether they accept it or reject it. if they accept the deal what is mitt romney going to say. if they reject the deal what is barack obama going to do. that is potentially a huge thing for october. >> so what do you make of all the buzz in israel? >> i think that it is, that it's part of the strategy that israel act like a mad dog at this point, to further scare -- >> to create more pressure. >> yeah, on the united states and on the iranians.

but we are very, very tight with the israelis on,-- on this issue and on intelligence stuff in general. especially on these computer worms that we have in their system now. and so i think that i done think barack obama is very up set when bebe netanyahu says we have to do this. >> i agree. >> and the democrats at their convention. >> just core on ate, i think you look to bill clinton to giva tremendous stem winder and hopes he sticks to the prompter which is a maybe, maybe not. >> rose: maybe not. >> they are excited about elizabeth warren that is the one question mark. >> rose: is she going to win that race, do most people think. what do most people think. >> i have been hearing bad reports about her that she isn't that terrific a performer. >> rose: scott brown b even now. >> by the way, they need to do more-- . >> rose: they need to do more than core nature. >> i still believe at some point this president needs a moment where he reassures

the public in some visceral way that yeah, things haven't gone so great. but i'm still on the case and we're going to make them better. >> rose: to show he is more of a politician, he's a leader. >> you have in this white house, in this operation you have david plott, david axelrod who was in the white house, the president, the vice president. if they are confronted with a crisis of some sort they will be so swift in thinking about the politics of it from here on out that while it could be a problem for them, depending on the magnitude of it, they will not sort of rush into dealing with it and looked panicked. they will systemically say how do we address this that it minimizes our chances to win the election, and with the level and experience i think they could have high degree of confidence, what the surprise that they can face it. >> rose: thank you mark, thank you john, thank you maggie, thank you joe. i learned a lot. thank you for joining us. see you next time.

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