report" with tyler mathisen and sue herera. rocky month. january closing up the first month of the year just as it started with dramatic ups and downs. but will the rest of the year see more of the same? growth follows, the economy didn't expand as much as they thought it would but one voting measure of the federal reserve isn't concerned. scaling back. chevron the latest oil major to cut investment plan slashing its drilling budgets by the most since 2003. all that and more tonight on "nightly business report" for friday january 30th. good evening, everyone. i think i speak for a lot of folks on wall street and around the country where we say january couldn't end soon enough. bag of earnings leading to a

tumultuous session. another month of equities but not just equities that got squeezed. government bond yields touched record lows new ones and the price of oil surged. strangely to its biggest one-day gain in two and a half years. with losses accelerating into the close, here's how the major averages ended the day. the dow was down 251 points. that's its worst month in a year. the nasdaq all fight 48 and the s&p lower by 26. also ending its worst month since last january. for the month, the dow and the s&p were both down more than 3%. the nasdaq off by 2% and during january, the dow get this triple digit moves, 70% of the time. volatility is back. in the bond market yield on the benchmark ten year treasury note bounced from a 20 year low and

closed a year session high of 1.66% and oil with a big day as we mentioned there. 8% higher. biggest one-day gain since june of 2012 following sharpest weekly drop in the u.s. oil rig count in nearly three decades. looming over the entire day, a dismal read on fourth quarter gdp. the u.s. economy grew at a much slower than expected rate just 2.6% in the final quarter of the year. half of what it was in the summer quarter. steve liesman takes a look behind that number and what it may mean to the federal reserve. >> reporter: too much spending was strong at 4.3%, the best number we've had since 2006 but business investment did slow down and federal government spending declined by 7.5% mostly payback from a strong defense spending number in the third quarter. still, some economists were concerned that this was a harbinger of slower growth in the united states ahead, but one key policy maker, president john

williams was not deterred. very optimistic for 2015. >> still very strong consumer spending. we also know that the consumer confidence is quite high and we're also seeing really good real income growth for households. i feel a lot of strength in the domestic economy. >> reporter: expects wages to rise more than they have been going up up 2.3% in the fourth quarter, about half of the level you'd expect in the healthy job market. we also see deflation rising to the 2% inflation target but won't happen until 2016. still support the federal reserve raising rates in the middle of 2015 a day that comes in the way you expect it. >> the round year is a good guess but we get close to the point when rates will be appropriate. i'm not predicting it will be june or any particular medium. >> reporter: falling to 5% the end of this year. we'll get a read on unemployment for wall street looking at the january report to come in with

unchanged read at 5.6% and job growth expected to be strong again at 234,000. those will be critical elements the fed will be watching to set policy for later this year. for "nightly business report," i'm steve liesman. >> and maiichael hampton why he's revising his growth. u.s. economist with bank of america merril lynch global reserve. where did you take your numbers and why? >> we brought down 2015 forecast to 3.15 to 3.3. it reflects that the fourth quarter was so soft and the jumping off point as you will a little lower and brought down the growth rate as a result. >> what are the components you looked at most? i know trade was one of them but what else did you look at to do the revision? >> there was a big mix in the data. the consumer was stronger than anticipated, but you had both trade and inventories come in on

either side. that inventory number came in stronger and they may suggest unintentionally build inventory, draw down at some point this year and trade has been a bit softer perhaps no surprise with the strong dollar and weaker growth abroad. >> we know that inflation is basically came right now, thanks to the fact oil prices came down sharply today over recent months. hiring has been very good. what do the numbers today comply about imply about the pace in america? >> i think the consumer is looking healthy and optimistic, we'll continue to have good job growth going forward. investment spending a little bit softer but not particularly weak. so our expec as we go into next week's job report is for a pretty solid payroll growth again. >> what does that mean for the fed? your forecast of when the fed will move is slightly different than some others on the street. you don't think it will be just

one move but two but later in the year. >> that's right. we think the fed is likely to wait until the second half of the year before they start hiking. a minute ago, some discussion among officials whether they might want to go mid year. the labor market looking very robust. be are down in the low 5% range at some point this year and the fed normally hikes interest rates but the inflation numbers looking very soft. >> what does the stronger dollar do to the u.s. economy and i believe you said 3.2% growth rate does it sap a percentage point of our growth or what? >> you look for 3.3% next year and it does definitely put some downward pressure. it means more imports and fewer exports. so that's a little pressure and less inflationary pressure. import prices softer as well. the feds a little more difficult, pushes further away from achieving two sides of the mandate. >> doesn't it end up tightening

anyway the strong dollar or not? >> it depends. looks solid. 3.3 gross for the year is nothing to sneeze at. we haven't been above 3% for a while now, so that's the challenge we've been facing. there's a lot of head winds and tail winds. low interest rates, probably a stimulus as a matter of fact to the economy as well. >> thank you very much. bank of america, merril lynch global reserve. thank you. now to earnings and profits at chevron that fell last quarter on the drop in oil prices. shares down though half a percent today even after the oil giant announced it's suspending a soft buyback plan and cutting on projects. isn't alone. jackie deang has more. >> reporter: the oil majors have begun to report and while they're generally beating expectations by managing costs and working on efficiencies wall street is focused on capital expenditure. drop in oil prices taken an ax

to spending not only impacts the oil hatch but the broader global economy. chevron is the latest in the biggest oil company to do so. the company plans to cut its spending by 13% to $35 billion this year. the plan to suspend share buyback program in order to conserve cash. it's the greatest reduction since 2003. >> the announcement by chevron that they're cutting back on capital expenditures is emblem attic of what's undergone in the industry right now. every company big and small is getting collapse and chevron getting a big signal it's going across the board. >> reporter: while the earnings exceeded analysts' expectations, the same analysts focused on revenues, down 18% from year-ago levels. >> the bottom line is the crude oil prices is their bread and better. that will hurt them the most going forward. they're dependent on crude oil prices higher than where they are now and the past couple of

months. >> reporter: shell announced it would cut cap x investments and also that 2015 spending would be less than 2014. and conoco phillips slashed its 2015 spending by 20% to $11.5 billion as it deals with the plunging price of crude. now attention turns to exxon's numbers on monday and bp on tuesday. for "nightly business report," i'm jackie deangelis. and now to economic news overseas and a shocker from denmark. the danish national bank will stop selling government bonds until further notice in order to keep its currency, the crono, with the euro and it comes one day after the central bank cut its interest rate for the third time in nearly two weeks. and in greece more uncertainty after the latest sections from newly elected far left prime minister. greece now says it will not

cooperate with its european bailout partners including the european union and the international monetary fund. the government has fired the heads of its state private agency after stopping the sale of all government owned assets and the problems may only deepen in russia after its central bank made a surprise cut in its main interest rate to 15% just after hiking to 17%. can anything save russia's floundering economy? geoff cutmore has the latest from moscow. >> reporter: this is an economy that's under siege. the apparent very high interest rates, a continuation of western sanctions, the falling oil price, and a lot of ruble volatility. all of that means this economy will probably contract somewhere between 4% and 5% but for the year 2015. the central bank though has

decided to act today. that's taken economists by surprise. no one has forecasted 2 percentage points. the central banks saying they feel there is room to maneuver on the growth side now that inflation appears to be in check. this is "nightly business report." i'm geoff cutmore here in moscow. and still ahead, the president is asking for millions to fund a new medical research initiative and today, executives from health care industry reacted president obama plans to ask money from congress for a health

care initiative as part of his proposal expected to be unveiled on monday. the effort is expected treating diseases with pinpoint accuracy and the president gave additional details today when he met with some of the biggest drug makers. meg tirrell has more from the white house. >> reporter: invitations were mysterious. the policies would like to invite you to the white house. the drug makers including regenerators and merck and ai lum nah. announced the $200 million investment in precision medicine medicine. treatments for diseases created right here in the united states. >> because we shouldn't just celebrate innovation. we have to invest in innovation. >> reporter: so what is

precision medicine? it's described as the right treatment for the right patient at the right time. therapy is more tailored to the underlying drivers of disease. the government will start with initiative on cancer driving understanding of its root causes to spur drug development. it will also build a national database of health information on at least a million volunteers. with everything from genetic data to health records to lifestyle habits. jor gee leads at regeneron. using research to drive drug development, a method that led to pcsk 9 inhibitors aimed at lowering cholesterol. >> if we define what makes us more susceptible to disease or keeps us protected against disease, we can use that. we can use that to come up with medicines that mimic these mutations and possibly in the case of pcfp 9 possibly help millions of people be the equivalent of genetic superstars now protected from disease.

>> reporter: he warns though this kind of work takes time. >> science unfortunately takes a lot of hard work and takes long periods of time a biological timeline. but this vision and foundation can be built here by the president's efforts here by companies like us can really contribute to making a difference. >> reporter: the response across the drug industry has generally been positive. we spoke with the ceo of armix pharmaceuticals who said it's potentially historic. for "nightly business report," i'm meg tirrell in washington. >> mastercard's profits surged in fourth quarter. that's where we begin the market focus. credit card company saw earnings rise by about 30% on increased consumer spending meaning more swipes mastercard also bought back about 2 million shares worth of stock during the quarter. the stock was up fractionally today to $82.03. xerox posted earnings that topped forecast revenue came in

slightly below because sales of printers fell. the company hiked its quarterly dividend to 7 cents a share. the yield on that dividend that converts to about 1.9% but investors weren't too happy with the company's decreased profit outlook and shares were off almost 3% on this down day. they finished at $13.17. eli lilly also out with earnings beat revenue that missed slightly. the drug maker way down by the patent expirations with negative impact of currency moves. shares there off slightly to $72 even. the west coast port slowdown we've been telling you about is weighing on tyson foods. the company said the issues are starting to back up meat shipments and could affect livestock producers if resolved soon. shares were down almost 3% to $39.04. altria group lower costs for

paying down debt. offset a decline in cigarette sales and helped the company post better than expected revenue. stock fell more than 2% to $53.10. costco announced a special one-time dividend. the wholesale club payout is $5 a share which will cost the retailer more than $2 billion. the yield on the payout is about 1% and it will be paid at the end of february. shares rose more than 1.5% to $142.99. what a day for shake shack. upscale burger chain exploded after pricing last night at $21 a share. two bucks above the top of the range. here's what happened. shares shot up 118% today. they more than doubled. $45.90 was the close on the day practically everything else lost money. what do so many diners and investors crave the cook to order burgers and crinkle cut fries? what's next for the fast casual

chain. >> reporter: danny myers' shake shack may have started as a literal hot dog stand in madison square park more than a decade ago but since grown into a worldwide brand after making madison square garden location permanent in 2004 it took the company five years to open a second store. from there, it's grown rapidly to 63 locations around the world. the burger joint is also known for its crinkle cut fries and custard with higher prices than a mcdonald's or burger king it's in the fine casual space. that makes its real competition the likes of chipotle and five guys equally popular with the millenial crowd. the question now is whether people line up to buy this stock the way they do shake shack burgers. >> from the investment side there's an appetite definitely. whether or not the company will replicate the craze or all the attention it's received in the new york metropolitan area is to

be seen. >> we're hungry. we're here for a real estate conference and we've heard about the shake shack. >> i like their burgers because they're not too thick and not too thin. >> awesome burgers at a fair price and local favorite. we try to get in last night and the line was around the block. >> what don't you like? i like the burgers. the shakes i mean the quality really comes down to the quality. >> reporter: that enthusiasm from customers earned shake shack more than $82 million in revenue in 2013. but same store sales have been declines over the last three years and some analysts expressed concern whether store growth is sustainable. >> there really aren't a lot of great growth names in the consumer cyclical space because of online sales growth. it has opened uphe door for a lot of restaurants to get into the space, however, with the increased competition, i think there will be barriers to how the concepts grow. >> reporter: shake shack said it's not slowing down anytime soon aiming to open 450 new shacks in new and existing

markets in the next two years. in new york city for "nightly business report," i'm kate rogers. our market monitor said for the past five years, february has been a good month for stocks and he thinks that trend will continue this year. joining us is jamie cox, managing director with harrison group and more than $60 million under management. nice to have you here, jamie. >> yes hi sue. how are you? >> good thanks. a rough day on the market today in almost every sector and do you believe the adage that as january goes so goes the rest of the year or no? >> i tend to. i mean that has been sort of the trend over the last however many times we've cited it, but i don't think this january has been bad today but all month. a terrible month. a lot of crisscrossing data. a lot of really interesting things happening like qe in europe. i think that we could probably throw this one out because i think there have been so many things that typically don't happen in january that happen this year.

i think for once this may not indicate the trend. >> a lot of things caused volatility this month. especially volatility to persist or do you think that some of those disruptions are behind snus. >> i think we're just gearing up for the volatility for 2015. i mean if you think about it what hasn't happened that will likely happen this year to cause volatility? that's the fed raising short-term rates. it's going to happen. we saw what happened back we even discussed it a couple years ago. markets were all over the place. i think we're living with it until the fed raises rates once. once they do and we get used to it i think the volatility will come down but until then, we'll be be zigging and zagging. >> more than u.s. markets this year. quickly, before we get to your stock picks, where internationally would you go? >> i think there are tons of opportunities in europe. european equities are going to be a real darling relative to u.s. equities. if you look at the last two

years, s&p 500 is really outperformed the morgan stanley all world index. that's going to change. you can actually buy the index that can get you international exposure or dive into europe to get utilities, automotive companies, volkswagen. many that don't appear in the united states. >> why don't we start with a utility national grid which is one of your picks, which has european exposure? >> yes, it does. utilities have been sort of the sector of the year if you will but they're terribly expensive right now. p.e. is over 20 and dominion resource 25 p/e. it's a great place too find if you look for utility exposure in your portfolio and afraid to be overwalged in the sector. i think it's a good spot. northeast exposure in the united states and also in the u.k. give you plenty of opportunity to grab some revenue growth and stable cash flows for a dividend

that can increase as well as have some share appreciation in the short run. >> j.p. morgan next on the list. do you think it's been punished unnecessarily by the market? >> oh my gosh. banks have just been hammered in january. i mean j.p. morgan was over 60 at the start of the year what 54 right now. it's even more attractive than it was then. it was cheap in the 60s. what we're having with banks is the result of some stress tests ongoing right now and also if rates rise in the coming couple of months the yield curve, excuse me the net interest margin will actually go up for banks and very positive. i think the future is bright for banks but with yields dropping the ten year note the net interest margins down. it's a terrible time to be in banking. but as they rise it is a good time to be a purchaser of banks. >> give me a 30 second pitch on google. your third choice. >> google is the at&t of our day. you're going to look back ten years from now and you're going

to be it's a wonder of what google can do. it's in every single home in america, every single you know the search possibilities of google are unlimited. people are sort of captivated by apple right now but the company with the staying power for decades down the road is google. if you want a good investment that's the place to be if you look for big cap ten. >> thank you so much for joining us. great ideas there, jamie. have a good weekend. jamie cox with harris financial group. coming up finding the fakes while fans focus on the super bowl special agents. cracking down on fountcounterfeits and the big money behind thes

there were a lot of winners in the government's latest auction of wireless spectrum use. basically to send video and data to mobile giesdevices. uncle sam netted $45 billion in the space and at spent the most more than $18 billion. dish network spent over $13 billion and it doesn't even have a network quite yet for wireless services. verizon did $10.5 billion and t mobile spent nearly $2 billion. two days and counting until the super bowl the biggest day of the year for players, fans, and for officials looking to crack down on counterfeit football merchandise. dave briggs has more from phoenix. >> reporter: new england patriots and seattle seahawks have traveled to arizona for the biggest game of the season. so too have agents from the department of homeland security intent on cracking down on counterfeit super bowl mercha been hearing thistive

initiative for a week. seized items with msrp of $100,000. >> reporter: licensed sport apparel a $3 billion business a year for a third of the league's an you'll revenue but also a target for criminals. last year federal authorities seized more than 300,000 counterfeit items valued at nearly $20 million. >> we're thinking of the package, identified possibly containing possible merchandise. so we're going to go in here for the package. >> reporter: while agents are focused on phoenix today, counterfeiting is a national problem. >> i think when it affects the economy of the united states i think we all have to agree it's not just a local issue. >> reporter: buying fake merchandise takes money away from the local businesses that sell off empty goods. that hurts local economies which hurts the country as a whole. worse, say officials the selling of counterfeit goods is often tied to larger criminal activity. that profit filtered back to

other organizations, either domestically or internationally to fund various types of criminal activity. >> reporter: while many counterfeit items look deceptively authentic, the best rule of thumb is if it looks too good fb true it probably is. for "nightly business report," da briggs in phoenix, arizona. that does it for "nightly business report" tonight. i'm sue herera. thanks for watching. >> thanks from me as well. i'm tyler mathisen. enjoy the ball game. we'll see you here on mond.

gwen: mitt rosm shocks the g.o.p. by dropping out before he dropped in. plus the republican congress and its favorite things. keystone benghazi, health care and debating eric holder. tonight, on "washington week." mitt's out. >> after spending considerable thought into making another run for president i've decided it's best to give other leaders in the party the opportunity to become our next nominee. gwen: and the 2016 republican competition grows even more intense. as hopefuls compete for cash, attention, and the chance to hone their arguments against hillary clinton. >> you look at everything that people dislike about washington, she embodies it. gwen: on capitol hill republican leaders retest arguments. on health care benghazi, and even outgoing attorney