this is "nightly business report" with tyler mathisen and sue herera. some being patient? the federal reserveby gins byegins its two-day policy meeting. will the fed raise rates and for how much and for how long? many blame the winter weather for poor housing starts but is there something bigger at play? oracle becomes the latest company to see its profits hit by a stronger dollar. all that and more tonight on "nightly business report" on st. patrick's day. tuesday, march 17th. good evening, everyone. and welcome. it was a day unlike other days before a federal reserve press confereny it is quiet and

speculators hesitate to take position but not today. as the fed's two-day meeting got under way, the dow jones industrial average saw its second triple lseventh triple-digit move in the last eight. the nasdaq rose about eight points. the s&p 500 was off nearly seven. the federal reserve so far has been patient in raising interest rates. but that could change tomorrow. as many speculate, the central bank is laying the groundwork for its first hike in almost a deck kate. steve leisman surveyed some of wall street's top economists to see what they're expecting. >> reporter: the word is just eight letters, but there's billions of dollars around the globe riding on it. the federal reserve looks set to remove the word "patience" from its statement. a word used to signal there would be no rate hike for at least two meetings. 69% of respondents to the survey

say the federal reserv way for possible rate hikes in the months ahead. when? the fed's first rate hike in nine hikes has been forecast to august of next year from september. but they see very gentle rate hikes. the fed is forecasting below 2% by the ends of 2016 and ratchet only up to 3% by the ends of 2017. both low by historical standards. but not everyone thinks the fed will be quite so easy. >> i think the fed has been slow to act and is a little behind the curve, and as a result they may end up moving a little faster than what the markets have priced in. >> reporter: in fact 54% of respondents to the survey think the fed is too everybodyasy, behind the curve. by complicateing the fed decision is a strong dollar. that could give the fed pause from hiking rates too soon because inflation will remain

below its 2% target. >> i don't think the fed is so much on the verge of raising rates right now. think they want to. i don't think the day that will accommodate it. >> reporter: but the if ed is only clearing the runway by removing patience. for "nightly business report," i'm steve leisman. let's turn to our two economic experts who have different points of view on how fast and how far they think rates will go. bob bruscoe, chief economist with fact and opinion economics. and joef n n tachltaroff. joe, you see rates moving a quarter point at a time all the way through the end of next year so we end up at 3.25% by

christmas of next year. you heard what steve said. do you really believe that the fed would risk slowing the economy in the face of an election campaign and risk deflation by raising rates that far, that fast? >> well first of all, i don't think it's that far, and i don't think it is that fast. it is a quarter a point a meeting. we get eight meetings so you wind up with two percentage points a year. if you think about it people are panicking that the fed might be all the way at 1% by the end of this year prp. interest rates don't affect business investment it is not affect being the interest sensitive sectors. >> bob, we heard a little bit of what you were saying in steve's piece a moment ago. you're not sure there really is solid economic growth yet. >> i don't think there is. strong job growth by numbers but

we know the job growth hasn't been strong enough to push up or average hourly earnings. we know productivity data have been poor. they're low productivity jobs not high-paying jobs. i don't see where we have the income growth to create inflation. every year from ten years, nine years, eight years, et cetera in you have inflation below 2% and falling even more recently. i think the fed is way over reacting concerned that all this liquidity will create some problem when the fed is affecting the balance sheets with its capital asset rates. no >> joe, you must disagree. >> i absolutely do. first of all, we've already begun to see some of the changes as far as wages go. walmart and some other companies are announcing they're raising wages. that's going to have to be followed.

i think we're also misunderstanding the relationship between productivity and wages. we have a simple relationship. rages equals price times marginal productivity. but the reality in the real world is that over the last welcome deck nadade now, workers have found if they don't work harder they don't get higher wages. they don't work harder. that's part of the reason productivity has been so weak. it's not because we're hurrying people into lower paying lower productivity positions. you look at where the jobs are. they're across the board. it's the fact that there is no incentive to work harder and create greater productivity because about the wage gains don't follow. that's what's being missed bid this analysis. >> bob, talk to me about the dollar and the strength of the dollar. some say that's a de facto tightening and. kind of frees the fed up to wait longer if they want to wait. at the same time it is not just the strength of the dollar but the velocity of the move in the dollar that's somewhat worrisome

to some on the streets. >> you can look at this domestic dynamic that joe's talking about. you can try to argue is the dog chasing the tail or is the tail chasing the dog. the problem is there is all this international competition because of the strong dollar. what's happening is labor in the united states is getting increasingly expensive. labor abroad is getting increasingly low. in addition we have this low oil price thing in the mess that's deci mating the u.s. energy sector. you put all these things together. you have the u.s. and this global economy that's not growing fast where europe is challenged china is challenged japan is talking about going back to the 0% inflation. europe is hoping like crazy that they print up the quantitative easing so something good will happen. none of those things are happening. the fed is once again regulating banks by looking at their asset

side and controlling asset ratios. you can raise minimum wage at walmart but you won't create any wage inflation in the u.s. the strong dollar is one of the reasons why. >> we saw weak housing start numbers this morning and the housing market has not been really terribly rebust,obust for a variety of reasons. what would rising interest rates do to housing? you think it might actually rather perversely give it a boost? >> i absolutely do. first, i don't think this report was weak as far as the housing market is concerned. what we've learned a long time ago is that builders don't speculate anymore and permits went up. if permits went up they expect to use them. look for housing starts to surge. but the other aspect about the housing market is that we have half a generation now that has looked at either mortgage rates going down or being flat or they're low.

they don't even think about the idea of mortgage rates rising so they're taking their own sweet time as far as buying is concerned. when mortgage rates start buying buyers are going to have to say to their selves before things is get away i better make that decision. >> i take your point on housing permits. next time we'll do this in a cage match. a drop in housing starts last month. according to the commerce department groundbreakings on new homes fell by 17% in february to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 897,000. that was well below expectations. the lowest level in more than a year with both single and multi-family housing.e inginge inghousing. much of the weakness being blamed on weather. but something bigger could be at play. diana olick is on to it. >> reporter: a sharp drop in construction of new homes adds

insult to injury in a spring market suffering from a lack of property for sale. some blame bad weather, but it is likely more than that. >> it's consumers still feeling some reluctance of coming back into the market. certainly we were missing the first-time buyers. that's been a big loss all along. >> reporter: still, some are blaming colder than average temperatures and heavy snow for the huge drop in total starts. >> february housing starts were down 17% but permits were up 3%. permits would not be distorted as were starts. >> reporter: but looking just at construction of single-family homes, which are most desperately needed the picture is less optimistic. single-family starts fell dramatically and building per mitsz permits were an indication of

starts. >> the builders that are still standing are those that made it through that terrific downfall that huge collapse. the worst in their lives. and so they're in general by making it through there, a little more conservative. >> reporter: pena pennsylvania-based builder is dropping the number of so-called spec homes it's building by 8%. it was explained monon a recent earnings call. >> still believe it is prudent to maintn a still unsold homes in our communities to satisfy demand for buyers who are looking for a quicker closing date. however, we'll be more selective on where and how many are built. >> reporter: builders say they're now saying more buyers begging for a deal. but they claim it is just not possible. not with the cost of everything going up. i asked one builder why he didn't just build cheaper homes. he answered -- where would i

find cheap land? for "nightly business report," i'm diana olick in washington. now to the oil market's volatile session. brent closed up for are the first time in four days while west texas intermediate fell on supply concerns. wti finished down apartment 43.46. another six-year low. after the market settled, the american petroleum institute reported another surge in inventories. on capitol hill house republicans unveiled their ten-year budget plan. chairman tom price says the proposal will not only cut spending but help create a surplus by 2026. >> our balanced budget for a stronger america saves $5.5 trillion. gets the balance within ten years without raising taxes. we responsibly lay out a plan for a healthy economy, an opportunity economy, one that opens the doors for people not subjects them to the dictates of washington, d.c. >> is the plan calls for a full repeal of the affordable care

act, an overhaul of the tax system and partly privatizing medicare. the gop partly increases funding for the military. at a conference today, mary jo white called for new regulations that would require brokers to have a fiduciary standard. it is an issue we've discussed here on "nightly business report." the s.e.c. has been studying the subject for years but still has not taken any action. what apple reportedly plans to do as soon as this fall in the technology i

ford exchanged swings cost nearly $19 billion in the fourth quarter according to a new report. the average negative curbrency was more than double than for the prior two ye roert report goes on to say it will likely worsen in the next quarter of this year. oracle says its profits were hurt at the margins by the rising dollar. they reported earnings per share of 68 cents, in line with wall street estimates. revenue though missed. oracle earned $9.3 billion in its fiscal third quarter, that's slightly below expectations. that's the revenue number. nonetheless, investors did like what they saw as you see there, the stock moved higher initially

in after-hours trading. the company also increased its quarterly dividend by 25%. dominic khchu is here. >> technology software oriented companies that do a lot of their business outside, their key take-away for the currency side is this will be a persistent issue going forward. what's interesting about the story and why investors may be more bullish on oracle is not what they necessarily said about the kurn is i butcurrency but what they said about cloud commuting, which means small, medium sitzed customers can put all of their customers in the hands of ibm or microsoft and pay by the use. that's the key. oracle says it is growing that business by 30% over the same period last year. mind you, this is a small fractional part of their business. only about 4% right now.

it is a huge deal. in the statement and earnings the founder of the company larry ellison, said specifically the company is on pace to earn a billion dollars in cloud-based computing revenues for are this year. he called out salesforce.com one of their main competitors, by name in saying that this was a race between us and them and we think we're going to win, in essence, oracle is going to beat out salesforce.com. if you want to know where the energy and focus is it is in this cloud computing. >> all right, dom, thank you very much. apple is reportedly planning to launch an online television service that could be another step in further shaking up an industry already in flux. as first reported by the "wall street journal," apple is in talks with some major networks to offer consumers a slimmed-down bundle as soon as fall. shares of apple rose almost 2%

today to $127 a share. apple television's ambitions could be a win for the company's hardware devices. >> now, apple tv has become the category leader.te >> reporter: apple could be about to invade your living room. the company is reportedly in talks with programmers to offer an online tv service which would include about 25 channels anchored by broadcasters such as abc, cbs, and fox. the price of the service could be about $40 per month. apple's executives know that tv viewing behavior has changed dramatically. consumers want to watch what this he want when they want and where they want. apple is in a unique position to meet that demand with a range of devices, including apple tv its set-top box, as welling a iphones and ipads. an online tv service could help apple sell more of those

devices. >> i think that that creates a larger ecosystem is where it generates more profits. tablets, remember has been one of those disappointing products for them because growth is now negative. so if this service actually gets you to buy more tablets or more ipads, that's obviously a benefit. >> reporter: there are channels for apple. the service reportedly doesn't involve nbc universal because of a falling out between apple and nbc universal's parent company, comcast. and apple has plenty of competition in this space. dish network, for instance offers a web-based service called sling tv for $20 a month. sony is also launching an internet-only subscription plan. still, despite these hurdles, analysts covering apple say investors should cheer this investment. >> it is great news that apple can find these new revenue

opportunities above and beyond the strong profitability of their phones. >> reporter: a streaming service may be just the beginning. wall street still thinks it is possible that the company could ultimately make and sell its very own television. for "nightly business report," i'm josh lipton in silicon valley. >> as mentioned in josh's report comcast is the parent company of nbc universal and cnbc which produces this program. you have to decide for yourself whether apple tv or any of its productscorrelates are a good deal. the average household receives nearly 190 channels on its system and pays about $65 a month. the apple service with 25 channels is said to cost about $40 a month. but will the mini or skinny bundles offer what you are looking for? one option is dish network's

string tv. for $20 a month. but it does not include the broadcast networks. sony plans to begin testing its version called playstation view this spring with up to 75 channels. but sony's been vague on pricing so far. whatever the content costs, don't forget that you have to add the price of your internet service, your broadband, because you won't be able to watch any of these services without it. athe photo shop maker aadobe's profits rose. shares fell initially in after-hours trading before the close. the stock was almost 2% higher to $79.66. shares of mgm. resort surging on this down day as an activist made an investor presentation advocating the

company convert in a real estate investment trust or a reit. the firm saying mgm could unlock shareholder value and it wants to nominate members for the company's board. the stock rose 15.5%. dfw beat street's estimates on both top and bottom lines. the shoe retailer also saw same-store sales rise. it will hike its dividend to 20 cents a share. its dividend yield is around 2% were the stock grows 4% to $38.33. burlington stores impressed with strong results today. earnings jumped nearly 50% in the january quarter. . company toned down its earnings and revenue outlook for the full year. shares ended at $58.59. a mall operator saying the

bid $14 billion substantially undervalues the company. an investor can't buy more hand 10% of the company. shares of both of those mall operators closed a little bit lower today. coming up the future of franchises. are they small businesses or are they part of a larger company? the issue is a legal one and it's coming to a head in seattle. here's a look at what to watch tomorrow. the federal reserve issues its

policy statement. chair janet yellen holds a press conference. fedex often viewed as a brock tore of the economy has earnings after the bell. the unemployment rate in 24 states fell in january according to the labor department. north dakota had the nation's lowest jobless rate. 2.8%. a sign that layoffs in the energy sector are yet to have a major impact there. rates rose in just eight states with mississippi nevada recording the highest level of joblessness at 7.1%. seattle is getting ready to roll out the nation's biggest minimum wage hike but not without a fight. at the center of a legal battle is whether franchises are small independent businesses or whether they are part of a much larger network. the answer could have a big impact on how they do business. kate rogers has more. >> reporter: are franchisees big or small businesses?

it depends on who you ask in seattle. where a fight is under way over when franchise owners should have to comply with the city's minimum wage hikes. under a june 2014 ordinance in seattle, franchisees are deemed large employers along with businesses that have 500-plus workers. this means they will increase wages to $15 an hour by 2017. small businesses with fewer than 500 workers have until 2021 to hit that level. phases of the wage hike kick in on april 1st at $11 an hour for large employers and $10 an hour for small employers. catch is that franchisees are considered large employers even if they have fewer than 500 workers. some franchisees say the move creates an unlean playing field causing them to raise prices more quickly to account for wage likes than their small business competitors. global industry groups the global franchise association, opposes that portion of the law and sued the city last year

along with five franchise owners claiming franchisees should be considered small businesses. matthew haller isa spokesman says a decision is immeant and could temporarily sus spent the portion of the law that impact when franchisees raise wages lumping them in with small businesses. >> we believ ordinance is discriminatory unfair and we are simply seeking equal treatment to be categorized as the small businesses they are. >> the no eggstion that they are akin to a mom and pop sandwich counter, i just think that that holds water. >> reporter: the decision to treat franchisees as large employers, "under the ordinance, franchises are treated as large businesses because they receive the benefits of being associated with a large franchise or

network of many more than 500 employees." for "nightly business report," i'm kate rogers. >> to find out more about how franchisees are fighting the minimum wage hike in seattle, head to our website, nbr.com. that does it for "nightly business report" for tonight. >> thanks. have a great evening, everybody. and we will see you tomorrow right here.

the following kqed production was produced in high definition. this time on "spark" -- first, a visit with one of the country's greatest living painters, wayne thiebaud, whose still-life paintings of everyday objects first brought him fame in the 1960s. >> you certainly can paint anything that you want. the only problem is that it has to be good. then, we follow up-and-coming singer/songwriter vienna teng as she prepares for a homecoming concert at the palace of fine arts. >> i think ultimately i was more interested in being a storytelling kind of songwriter. and choreographer janice garrett creates a revealing new modern dance piece -- next on "spark." major support for "spark"