>> rose: welcome to the program. we begin this evening with politics from new hampshire. we start from boston with hugh hewitt. >> the prediction i've been making along with rick wilson, superb political consultant, some trump people hate him. we're going to have an open convention in cleveland. no one will have 1,027 delegates. the rules don't work to a majority this work. we're going to have the greatest political convention in my lifetime. >> rose: we continue with robert costas, stuart stevens, at that time trick hello and jonathan alter. >> where chris christie can turn himself into something real that can come out of new hampshire with sort of a strong showing. that will be huge. if called trump sort of

ultimately kind of implodes on his own which i think is the bet of a lot of these republicans who aren't spending political capital to attack him, if you see trump come in a second or even a third, it's very hard to see the guy who says i'm winning i'm winning i'm winning build back from that. >> rose: weevening with peter s new book is called united states of jihad, investigating america's home grown terrorist. >> you're talking about wolves, people associated with foreign terrorist organizations, in a sense they're part of a virtual pack. when you get on-line and start looking at isis pop gran dahuk up with people around the world, there are hundreds of people with the same views around the world saying isis is great. >> rose: politics and home grown terrorism when we continue. >> rose: funding for "charlie rose" has been provided by:

>> rose: additional funding provided by: >> and by bloomberg, a provider of multimedia news and information services worldwide. captioning sponsored by rose communications from our studios in new york city, this is charlie rose. >> rose: the new hampshire primary is one day away. donald trump and bernie sanders maintain commanding leads in the polls. marco rubio after finishing a strong third in iowa is now having to rebut what some consider a poor debate performance. donald trump and marco rubio was on this morning. >> you had a huge lead. the second story is marco rubio suffered in the debate. all of the analysts after the debate said that he really took

it on, he took a hard blow from the governors, what do you think of that? >> well, he did. i was standing next to him. he was to my right, and he was having a hard time. it was sort of interesting to watch because he's made the one statement and i'm one with a good memory so i'm hearing the one statement and then a couple minutes later he made the same statement almost identical. i said that's okay, we've repeated ourselves on occasion, charlie, right. >> rose: yes. >> other than norah and dale but we repeat ourselves constantly. we heard it again, maybe even a fifth time. and i thought that was really strange. it turned out to be a massive blow up. but it was certainly different. i mean, i'm standing there and i'm saying did i hear that five time now. what's going on here. and it was, you know, obviously a sound byte but you can't use

it twice. >> i'm going to continue to say it, barack obama is deliberately carrying out a strategy to change america. he wants to redefine this country. it is one of the main reasons i'm running and it is one of the reasons why i feel so good about our debate performance despite whatever the media people want to say. it was the biggest funds raising nights we had. i feel great about it and we're going to continue to say the truth. barack obama is systematically trying to carry out an to chane which country. >> rose: we have hugh from the hugh hewitt show. i'm pleased to have him back. >> good evening. >> rose: what made you convinced cruz would win when the polls show donald trump win. >> there are two answers to that charlie. one is radio hosts are frequently wrong but never in doubt so we always assert what we believe to be true. but the data point what social media touches and the social media organization run by a

couple people, john and josh is a super pack operation. it's probably the most sophisticated of any of the republicans that's been up and running for two years with a massive data bank. i don't know if it scales in new hampshire, but it certainly worked in iowa. they knew who every one of their voters was and where they could be found that day. >> rose: so tell me how you see it in new hampshire. >> i think donald trump won tomorrow by not losing on saturday night. i think he's going to win. i think john kasich is going to come in second. i think marco rubio will be third. my kasich theory is this. it's my uncle's theory of politics. john kasich is everybody's uncle and they'll vote for him in new hampshire because they're independent minded, fair minded yankee kind of thing. everyone's got a lawyer uncle. i an that for some of my nephews who you call when you're in trouble. you got christie and cruz and got a doctor uncle, got the distant scary uncle that can get

you a job and that's donald trump. we've got the cool uncle that takes you to ball games and that's marco rubio and then we've got bad ask that's jeb bush. nobody votes for dad, yes. but he did release the cracken over the weekend and bring barbara bush into new hampshire so he's surging up a little bit but i think it's going to be trump, kasich rubio. and this overkill on the rubio repetition has actually rallied some conservatives to his side as has the ted cruz overkill on the ben carson story. because there's nothing like the sound of liberal media and democrats beating up on conservatives to rally people to them. i think rubio's actually getting a little rebound after the pile on of the weekend. >> rose: yes but the pile on wasn't from liberal writers. ly three minutes as you havedy. suggested. but it seemed to be the topic of conversation because he seemed

to have momentum. >> i'll give you an example. a very smart former governor of michigan was on cnn this afternoon and she brought it up and joyful with rubio's decline. she also brought up ted cruz's canada thing, birtherrism from harvard law grad who knows better. they are trying to i think systematically sew discord but really take rubio out and take ted cruz out of the picture. i think they would like to run against a very weakened nominee who cannot energize young people against hillary clinton. >> rose: so in your judgment, this was a temporary hit that now is rebounding to marco rubio's favor. >> yes. andfrckñ what he did was, famoue in chris matthew's book hard ball, probably the most important line in politics, hang a lantern on your problem. he leaned into his problem all day yesterday and today and explained what he had attempted to explain three or four times. but i think the reason he keep going back to it was he never

completed, he got the 90 seconds and he wanted to say president obama has not failed because he's young so don't hold it against me because i'm young. president obama has destroyed what conservatives believe is the core of the country's ethos because he's been successful. and he didn't get that out in 90 seconds or he kept trying to restart it to explain it. christie being the able prosecutor and i've had him on so many times kept interrupting the witness. it was terrific theatre. >> rose: yes. but i mean you know what his argument is that obama wants to change america. he wants to change america with healthcare, oh my god. he wants to change america with an iran nuclear negotiation and deal, oh my god. i mean that's not exactly somehow changing the ethos of america. >> well, the iran deal i'll disagree with you on charlie. i noted on the republican debate we spent a lot of time talking

about north korea and the clinton kerry policy with islamists end timers. it doesn't work. it's not like the soviet union which nixon arranged. on the other hand i do think that bernie sanders/hillary clinton campaigns back and north over who is going to burn in hell for not supporting the first woman president is not the exactly the height of a policy debate. this is the inversion, you might agree with me. republicans usually argue over personality and democrats over policy. this is inverted this year with the except of the rock em sock em robots donald trump. >> rose: talking about the rockbz em sock em robots why do you think trump is winning. >> they're a very independent minded state. they value that and he is thoughts anybody's creature. >> rose: let's go back to kasich for a second. does anybody have the possibility now without thinking of any particular scenario of touching fire. >> yes. john kasich does because again

the "wall street journal" moll, the break down of the 400,000 new hampshire people who are independent and can vote either republican or democrat tomorrow they haven't made up their mind. the one overwhelmingly is john kasich. he appeals to the likability, let's work together, that's grow the country, ronald reagan instance sunny optimism sore he can get the lion's share of the republican independentents and pull an felt. i don't know if he has enough time. the prediction along with rick wilson a suburb political consultant trump people hate him. we're going to have an open convention in cleveland. no will of one will have 1,027 delegates. the majority doesn't rule. we'll have the greatest political convention in my lifetime. >> rose: is this somehow a wish over experience. >> i'm not, because you know, they can't have a winner take all primary until march 15th.

that means all sorts of delegates have to be divided up proportionately. they had one in iowa. she had a chip in cleveland. the more proportional results come in the harder it is and the more scattered the field. it will be a bunched up third, fourth and fifth place tomorrow night. the more empowered diversity of candidates on to carry on. some people talking about chris christie getting out if he gets under 5%. no he won't. he's got a couple of hedge fund guys. he's got some play in new jersey and beyond. he'll pick up some votes in michigan on march 8th where he will duel. >> rose: how can they vote as aprimary. >> since hillary is getting killed by bernie your vote has more value in pure economic theory terms if you cast it on the republican side. i think more independents will vote for republicans because

they believe that bernie sanders is blowing hillary clinton out of the water. there's a politico story tonight that hillary is about to fire all of her staff. so that's a fine of chaos. david act axelrod and he's awe pliedz to the witness protection program now. i think if you're an independent voter and you wantm,satisfaction tomorrow. >> rose: because you know you're contributing to what? >> to a decisive moment. whereas, the decision is already in in the minds of most observers on the democratic side. bernie's going to win, he's going to win by a lot. the republican vote matters a lot because second third fourth fifth. ted cruz in the wmur poll, cnn poll was in third place. i was stunned by that because he got the lowest iowa bump than anyone i've seen because of the carson controversy. maybe i'm wrong but i still think trump, kasich79 rubio tomorrow in that order with some decent separation. >> rose: what about ben

carson's support especially among evangelicals. >> i think that is fading. i like dr. carson a lot. he's a guest on my show often and one of the nicest men in america. i was surprised he got 10% in iowa. i don't think he lost many votes if any because of ted cruz announcement although people can disbout that forever. i think people come to the conclusion that he will make a wonderful secretary of hhs or surgeon general of the united states that he is not a participant in the first or second tier although he's going to soldier on as well because he's going to have some chips at the table in cleveland. >> rose: could he possibly endorse marco rubio. >> i don't have any idea which way he will go. >> rose: i was surprised that santorum endorsed but i don't understand the nature. >> santorum because it makes m the most serious person a iran. >> rose: there's great great

fault with marco saying the first day he's going to avoid the treaty with the nuclear deal. >> well not me i would avoid it too. george pa taught key came out today and reiterated their support for marco rubio. i think there's a great divide in the country on the iran deal and i think it's playing out in front of us on the north korea deal signed in 94 by the first clinton administration. it didn't work. they're just a crazy regime. the iranians are fanatical. those of us who think the north korea deal in 94 was the disaster take the iran deal of 2015 and five forward five years and it's a disaster. >> rose: bob gates had real qualms about the deal but he said for marco rubio to say on the first day to avoid the deal was a serious mistake. >> i recognize your right. he's one of the people i disagree from. only in the clarity of the mind in the people who is the republican nominee i want them to say that deal is dead.

and mrs. clinton who says she will embarrass it and work with it. the former secretary of state will have it both ways arguing she was in fact a proponent of sanctions but now is in proponent of the deal. >> rose: what's the basic divide in this election do you think between democrats and republicans. >> foreign policy. it is i think going to be a foreign policy election. and there were news stories out tonight on isis planning attacks in five cities. the catastrophe that is under way with islamist radicalism is of great concern to the foreign policy wing of the republican party which actually brings together everybody. and does not seem to concern the full sweden, i think i used that term last election. >> rose: yes, you did. >> bernie sanders, you know bernie sanders with chuck todd yesterday said he will be consulting with j street and lawrence quorum. and my job dropped. i said wow he's going to kill hillary clinton tomorrow. >> rose: yes but then they go to south carolina.

things will probably even up. >> you know, that youth gap, the "wall street journal." >> rose: i think that's the most fascinating thing in democratic politics is the youth gap. and young women. all bright is in new hampshire saying for you not to vote for her is, you know, something next to terrible. >> i saw a grandmother and her granddaughter today. because i'm stuck in a hotel in boston because of the snow term i can't do my radio show. so i od's, i got new hampshire jitters. it's like drinking too much coffee but a grandmother and granddaughter both saying they're voting for bernie even though the grandma had supported the former secretary of state eight years ago. the granddaughter because he doesn't want $80,000 in college debt. in other words she likes the sanders appeal and the grandmother because she said in so many words the server scandal will bring her down, the 22 e-mails will bring her down. for very different reasons

grandma and granddaughter are voting for bernie. and if bernie sanders comes out and says one thing, he will make elizabeth warren his vice president, he might turn south carolina around. >> rose: wow. i hadn't thought about that. i wondered where sh($u(j and what she was doing and how much she's sitting somewhere in massachusetts saying why didn't i do it. >> good reporters would go find her because she would be the nominee right now. if bernie sanders comes out and says, let me introduce my running mate, it's game set match. it's a replay what yogi berra said dejavu. >> rose: he says i find the discourse extremely bainal and an outrage and insaturday to the voters. you are a very smart harvard educated lawyers. do you agree with him. >> yes. it's not been, i don le the 90 second rule in a debate. i've done two and i have two more to do on february 25th. and i don't have makes the

rules. i think it's very hard. yours is the only show on televisione[ where a segment gos this long. >> rose: but they're scared of it aren't they. most of them are scared of long form conversation or not. >> i don't think so. i will do my website thing but i have listed off 153 interviews and i transcribed them all. they are hours, hundreds of hours of republican candidates asking questions they have no idea what i'm going to ask them about and they will talk at length and those, they try and steer it to their strength obviously. chris christie is a very good courtroom lawyer so he knows how to bring it back to surveillance of terrorism suspects and post 911. marco rubio brings it to the intelligence committee. ted rust will talk to you all day long about his supreme court arguments and he will give you every minute of every one of those arguments because he has them memorized. jeb bush will talk about

reforming education in florida. it's fascinating, interesting. ben carson will tell you about running the neurological department at johns hopkins. it's interesting. >> rose: let me ask you this about marco and the debate. however it's playing out in new hampshire. donald trump is with us on cbs this morning program. he said look one time is interesting and understandable. the second time to evoke the same statement about obama changing the country is okay. the third time is becoming questionable. fourth and fifth says something about the person saying it. >> well okay. donald trump is right but he's also a little bit wrong. message discipline isdh the most important factor in a presidential campaign. >> rose: until you look stupid. >> until you cross the line. what christie did was make him reset. because you can't give the second part of that punch line. president obama did not fail because he's young, he's failed because he's a leftist that's

the second part. if you keep getting interrupted in the 90 second bell and chris christie worked it expertly. rubio got off the matt. he dominated the second half of the debate and in fact google searches on his pro-life stance again for republican primary voters it matters a lot. his talk about what the three poles of conservatism were scored off the chart. i think we in the media have done tonal vision on those three minutes. i know 9 left loves those three minutes and hillary people are trying to knock rubio out of this and he's the one that scars them the most. maybe he had a glass jar we'll see but it didn't look like to me today and wred. >> rose: thank you my friend. >> thank you charlie. >> rose: back in a moment. stay with us. >> rose: we continue this evening with politics on the eve of the new hampshire primary. joining me now from manchester, a great group of political observers. robert costa national political reporter at the washington

poster. tutor stevens is political consultant for the daily beast. top advisor to mitt romney presidential campaign in 2012. pad trick healy is a national political correspondent for the "new york times" and jonathan alter msnbc analyst and dealy base column ice i'm pleased to have them all here this ink. i'll begin with robert costa. tell me how you see this and how donald trump sees this and who do you think is dictating the trends that are happening in new hampshire the night before they vote. >> charlie, great to be with you. i think back to pat buchanan's campaign in the 1990, he ran as a populist, conservative, someone against illegalqd immigration. we're seeing echos of that with donald trump here in the granite state on the eve of the primary. a sense that this is a white working class state. the buchanan coalition seems to be coming back together behind donald trump. he has a large lead in the

state. if there's any place where he has a ground game, a strong operation it's here in new hampshire where his campaign manager hails from. >> rose: stuart stevens someone said earlier donald trump didn't lose and marco rubio had a good debate except for three minutes. how did you see it. >> i think that they were playing to different crowds. i think kasich more than anybody we've seen is playing to independents. he's actively out there trying to get people who might vote as independents. you can vote in either primary. i think that's his real play. this can be very very interesting to watch election night and watch the different areas. i think the kasich is going to do very well in areas that bernie sanders also does well in. the more liberal parts of the state. new hampshire has always had this compact with candidates that if you work hard and really put the time in and really value

us, we will reward you. and i think kasich and chris christie are going to have surprisingly good nights tomorrow. because they've done it the old-fashioned way. i meany each done close to or over a hundred town halls. and i think that's really going to pay off. >> rose: patrick healy from the "new york times." how do you see. rose: i'm good. it's great to have you here. >> good to be here. >> rose: what do you think of what's going on with the republican party and the debate they had on saturday night and sort of the conventional wisdom of the night of the debate that marco rubio had been dealt not a fatal blow but a blow that will slow him down. >> the problem with rubio is similar with the problem donald trump had in the last debate in iowa. donald trump and now marco rubio sort of came into those debates with some momentum.

trump skipped that debate in iowa. for rubio, and that momentum really kind of halted. fell back into second place finish. for rubio, he was coming out of iowa with this strong third place finish. he was getting a lot of looks from voters in new hampshire who hadn't totally made up their mind. they were starting to feel like okay maybe this is the guy that we're supposed to be with or this is the guy we're supposed to get a second look at. and then in the debate just christie just pummeled him over and over and over again. it's as if christie was paying marco your super pac may have done a lot of damage to me but i'm going to go down swinging. so it's sort of a feeling that the momentum that rubio had is really kind of come to a halt. the big company is what stuart touched on. i think in most independent voters if they cut for donald trump, if they cut for bernie

sanders on the left. they could go either way. john kasich certainly. rubio's able to come up the middle, we'll see. >> rose: jonathan, talk about the cracks -- the democrats ad the primary. >> well, she struggled with message. i think in some cases she's probably not taking a lot of thk advice that she's getting to make a crystal presentation that is more folked on the voters and the public rather than herself. the night of the iowa caucus and her speech where she was breathing a sigh of relief, she went into kind of a partial stump speech. she said i know, i know this. i know this. i know this. she said i know about five times. the election as her husband

knows better than anybody else is not about her, it's about the voters. that's what bill clinton did so well up here in 1992 when he was being attacked of these sex scandals, dodging the draft. look you can say anything you want about me, it's about you the voters and your problems. and that's what she's been unable to do is to convince people that she's a warrior for the middle class. defending her approach or kind of a process question about who is better able to make change which is kind of boring for voters. they want to hear about their problems and what you're going to do about them and that's the connection she hasn't made. bernie sanders makes it very well, very clearly. i just went and saw an appearance by him today. he makes a great stump speech and he will do extremely well here. >> rose: does he have the capacity -- >> charlie if i could jump in. it was very telling to jonathan's point that hillary

clinton went to flint, michigan on sunday. she left new hampshire and went to flint because i feel like when she talks about flint, michigandq and the dirty water there and the fact that she feels like government did not, left this predominantly african american behind. she is at her strongest. she's where you hear the message sort of 2350eu9ing people who are genuine, she feels she's sort of found her voice. in terms of the messaging, it's when she talks about flint, it's every time you feel she's sort of raising her game level but more generally it goes to sort of jonathan's point. she really sort of struggles in terms of figuring out a menial that's going to resonate especially with young people those numbers in terms of her unpopularity with young people is a real problem. >> rose: what do you make of bill coming out so strongly against bernie sanders yesterday? >> he's been dying to. he's really been itching. today, monday at an event he

referred to bernie going after this mystical establishment. mythical brought back for a lot of us an echo eight years ago of bill raging against the fairy tale that was barack obama's position on the iraq war which he did on the eve of the presidential primary. bill clinton has been wanting to do this for some time. the concern is bernie sanders favorable ratings have been so high and hillary's are not great. so going tooagainst bernie is r. and bill clinton pulled back a little bit today in terms of focusing the attack just on bernie sort of hitting everybody who doesn't agree with him as part of the establishment. >> rose: letrñi me turn back to marco rubio. stuart if you were advising him what would you tell him. >> it's impossible to be nominated by a party and not be humiliated and not have terrible moments.

it's how you come back. this is just part of the progression. and i think today he's responded well. he seems to understand that. it also stresses the staff. you have to just take it and say look this happened and move on. it's like top notch quarterback. you're going to throw interceptions you have to say okay. >> rose: do you think trump is getting away light. >> i think trump is running in his own political lane and he's not been accurately fact checked by a lot of republican voters. i think the point you brought up charlie about kasich the compelling one. i was on the campaign bus with kasich. he's been a fidgety politician experienced in the house but somebody who didn't have a profile for many months. now he's finding his groove here in new hampshire, positive surrounding by a sea of negativity. very human on the campaign trail, emotional. and he has the backing of many of the republican establishments. he's someone to watch. if he catapults out of new

hampshire the establishment says look this is a two-term governor he could be a contender. >> charlie, i think that the moment that we're waiting for in this republican nomination, someone in a debhait has to turn to -- debate has to turn to donald trump it's a great privilege to run for president of the united states and the greatest privilege is to be and you haven't taken this seriously and you are a presidential candidate. you have absolutely no policy. you haven't taken it seriously enough to even study. and being up here is denigrating this process. >> rose: if itches donald trump and you said that to me, i would say then do you know what stuart, you're talking about people in iowa and you're talking about people new new hampshire. you're not talking about me. you're talking about the people who support me and i would turn it to them. >> i think you have to go right. wheneverñrññri you're attacked,u have to go with the essence of it and the eastance of donald trump isn't that he isn't

conservative enough or that he used to be a democrat. it's that basically he's a jessie venturey candidate running for president of the united states. you have to call him out on that and that's ultimately he will exit this stage. but people will at a certain point laugh at someone who is saying that their healthcare policy is not having people dying in the street. >> real quick charlie the problem for any republican who wants to make that argument is who has the political capital with an the gop to make that case against trump and have the answer. >> you gain capital by picking fights and winning fights. and i think that there has been this version of attacking trump for fear of alienating trump voters. i don't think that works. >> it didn't work for bush. >> rose: well bush was working saturday night. >> here's the thing. you have to do it in a sustained

fashion. you can't do a little bit. you have to make the sustained decisionment one of us is going to walk off this stage alive and go at it. that really is the only way to prosecute somebody and you have to do it in paid media. because donald trump is getting such a percentage of the coverage that if you only do it in free media in the press, he's going to out shout you. you need a combination of the two. >> rose: let me turn back to the democrats. jonathan is it possible that we're looking at something that willclinton damaging to her evef she gets the nomination, her appeal to young people especially to women who you idea of making history with the first woman president. >> i think it's better that she goes through this now and that she's really challenged now. i think if she stabilizes in south carolina and starts to really win a lot of primaries a month from now, that we'll look back on this as having been a

good thing for her. it's forced her to sharpen her message. it's forced her to reach out more not take things for granted, not come across as entitled which was a problem for her before. i think a lot of the young people will, they are smart. they're a lot smarter than the babyboomers were when they were young. and they will come back to the democratic party nominee in the fall. they know the stakes in the fall. and so she kind of needs this, a lot of sanders message she will incorporate. it will take a democratic party to the left some but i don't think to the dangerous left. i think it will take her a little further center left in a ways that will hen her get more votes in november if she's the nominee. >> rose: what about if bernie sanders, hugh hewitt gave me this idea. if bernie sanders announced that elizabeth warren is going to be his running mate. >> yes. i think that's not so likely but

i think it's quite possible charlie if hillary is nominated you're going to see a clinton warren ticket and will double down the way bill clinton did with al gore whenned they had she southerners on the ticket in 1992. >> rose: patrick, what are you looking in terms of the narrative that's likely to come out of new hampshire. >> well. >> rose: is it one from marco to maybe john kasich or maybe hillary clinton for a layout of reasons exceeded expectations in new hampshire but still lost by a lot. >> i think the dominant republican side because there is just so much up for grabs. if john kasich or chris christie can turn himself into something really. it can come out of new hampshire with sort of a strong showing. that will be huge. if donald trump sort of ultimately kind ofmplodes on his own which i think is the bet of a lot of these republicans

who aren't spending political capital to attack him. if you see trump come in a second or even a third. it's very hard to see the guy who says i'm winning i'm winning i'm winning, build back from that. the secondary narrative though is very much about hillary clinton. well i agree with jonathan that she needs to sort of, it's better to go through this now than let's say six months from now. the risk is that if she loses by double digits to bernie, bernie sanders, it can't simply be he's from vermont, he's from a neighboring state, we knew this was going to happen all the time. there are going to be exit poll numbers that are looking at just how badly she did with young people, with possibly with women and not just young women about ybe even rank and file democrats that may not keep her from getting the nomination but

will show, and i think you'll hear and see this in stories just possibly how weak a general election nominee she is. this is clinton country. new hwith the clintons for 24 y. so a real drubbing by bernie sanders points out where the have you been of vulnerabilities are. >> robert costa one last question about dawned trump. what does he fear the most. >> i think trump fears more than anything embarrassment. you look at his whole career. he does not like to be embarrassed. he likes to win and it sounds cliche but that's really the r him is a personal challenge. it's something he has to win not just politically to jump start his campaign but to reinvigorate himself to not be embarrassed.

>> rose: who do you think would be the republican nominee. >> i don't think it will be donald trump. i think it could happen and to assume not would be a mistake. someone has to fight donald trump. we had in new hampshire this odd battle who can come in first loser. it's really strange. it goes to how much republicans want to win. i think that trump is going to be someone who is going to lose the senate as well as the presidential race. ted cruz is someone who i think is going to have difficulty establishing a lot of appeal in states like ohio, pennsylvania. even florida. these are states they have to hold the senate. i think ultimately matters will do what they tend to do which is what in their best interest which is nominate somebody who can win. i go back to that group. i think it will be kasich and

rubio, bush or christie. one of those four because they are the best politicians and they are the ones who have a chance to win. >> rose: thank you very much stuart stevens, r5ur9 costa, patrick healy, jonathan alter. stay with us. >> peter bergen is here. he is cnn's national security analyst and vice president at the think tank new america. time magazine has called him the dean of terrorism journalist. since 1997 he has charted the rise of al-qaeda, isis and other terrorist groups. his new book is called united states of jihad investigating america's home grown terrorists i'm pleased to have peter bergen back at this table. welcome. >> thank you, sir. >> rose: so these are new

questions you're raising about jihaddism in america. >> yes. >> rose: what questions are you asking. >> the biggest question is why would ordinary americans awe daunt jihadi ideology or join a group buying isis. muslims are integrated into american society. they are averaging incomes the same as most americans. >> rose: a statement the president made when he went to the mosque. >> it's a very different picture in france or european country. >> rose: incorporated or integrated into this society. >> one of the striking thing in france is that around 10% of the population, yet 70% of the prison population is muslim which speaks for itself. this is not the case in the united states. why do people sign up if this ideology. the question i try to answer in the book. i think it gets to the nature of evil that the y's often you can only get so far.5t you can say hey somebody had

family disappointment. they objected to american policy. families have disappointments don't like foreign policy and then go and murder completely innocent people watching the boston marathon or attending a christmas party in san bernardino. >> rose: you should say why should americans be any different. people are doing this in other places around the world. >> i always thought the american dream would be a firewall that would prevent americanisms from buying into this ideology. of course we're talking about maybe 300 cases plus since 9/11 so it's a very small group. nonetheless if you're a kid in chicago, or in the book the mon family, grew up in the united states born here. they wanted to join isis. luckily they were arrested. the boys would have been killed and the girls married off to some isis fighter. they believe they were joining

some islamic utopia and somehow isis has persuaded -- >> rose: isis has done that for the nature of their recruiting pitch. >> we learned about wolves. people associated with foreign terrorist organizations are doing this but in a sense they are part of a virtual pack. if you get on-line and you start looking at isis propaganda and hook up with people around the world. there are hundreds of people around the world saying yes isis is great and they may spend thousands of hours on-line with you persuading you isis is the truth of isis. parents are not necessarily monitoring this. particularly if it's done on a cell phone rather has not a home computer. >> rose: have we mounted an effective campaign. >> the short answer is i don't think so but i also think it's probably, the u.s. government has a kiss of death problem in this area and let's do this whole experiment where he had the world's greatest people doing this. some capable people doing this. it's still not going to be persuasive as isis is putting

out. >> rose: so then find some muslims to do it. discussion between silicon valley, the government. >> rose: find somebody that was with isis and left. >> i agree. defectors are the most effective and the "new york times" ran a piece about two female that defected. so defections are the most usual but there's kind of a catch 22. let's say you're an american defector from isis and you come back to this country, you go to prison. the fact you defected may not -- >> rose: is that smart on our part. >> well luckily we don't really see very many people coming back. especially if they genuinely defected. that's a big question sometimes. >> rose: two quotes. one from locky who you well know, very charismatic jihadi

recruiter. >> yes. >> rose: had a following and was killed by a drone. he said quote, jihad is becoming as american as apple pie. >> he says that in 2010. now that seems like an absurd claim but a lot of the leaders are al-qaeda and associated groups want to be american. i profile in the book he became a leader with a terrorist group. the one who invoantd inspire magazine which is the magazinea used by the boston marathon bombers to build their bombs is american. and there's a guy who actually grew up in the bronx in florida who became the leader of al-qaeda's operations in pakistan and also against the west. so we've seen, and the other thing which is important is that every single lethal terrorist attack in the united states

since 9/11 has been conducted by an american citizen or illegal permanent resident. they are not foreigners or refugees. they are people either born her3 or here illegally. >> rose: anwar al alecky. >> , born in new mexico and lead a series of double lives. after 9/11 there was a set of documents. the fbi was trailing him because he was associating with the highjackers. he was visiting prosecutes. this is a cleric spending hundreds of dollars every week on prostitutes. that's one part of his double live. the other part is presented himself as a muslim cleric. they offered him to come and speak to him. ironically the highjackers he knew were the ones that drove the plane into the pentagon. >> rose: has that compounded the problem. >> in europe it has.

two of the people in the paris attacks posed as refugees. now it would be die ballally clever if they pose as refugees to actually make this even a bigger problem politically in europe than it is already. somebody was saying maybe that's the intent it's hard to tell but the point is they certainly pose as refugees. with the numbers of refugees coming in, it's going to be hard for europe. we've taken almost no refugees since 2000 and we may take 10,000 which is a small number. by the way, if i was terrorist i would not come to this country as a refugee. >> rvetting process. >> it would be so painful. you would have to go to these camps and be selected by the un, 23 out of a million to then be presented to the united states as a possible refugee. then they would look at you for 18 to 24 months. there are easier ways to do this. >> rose: so what have you

learned that would be significant for the united states to thwart jihaddism from increasing. >> that's a very interesting question. i look at, there were two big theories of the case from the law enforcement tied. the new york police department had radicalization and they look at how people went from radicalization to militant. >> rose: this is recent. >> in 2007. they look at the number of people in various parts of the west and they found there are unremarkable males between 18 and 35 who then embraced this jihadist ideology. what they described could be at least in part the journey somebody would take just to become a fundamentalist. but the report dealt with a number of people. >> rose: you said that they have active investigations of

isis suspects in 50 states. >> yes. and they have 900 investigations ongoing. now out of all of these, there are two sides to this. the san bernardino couple who killed 14 people, they had no criminal background. >> rose: she had made statements overseas. >>8$ she had made statements overseas. it was in pakistan. but these are not unusual sentiments. so i think that the fbi's is they get criticized if people get through and often the investigation for 50 states i can almost guarantee you most of them are sting operations. the question then becomes are they entrapping sort of hopeless wannabes or are the getting someone serious and that's a hearted thing to distinguish because a hopeless one be is dangerous and sometimes a

hopeless one be is a hopeless one be. >> rose: why are we having discussions calling people radical i lulls -- islams -- >> by not calling it radical islam i understand why the president does that and president bush before it. >> rose: why do all the people politicize it. >> it's an easy way to make a cheap point. but i think the fact is that this does have something to do with islam. it's a cheery pick version of islam but it's not a book it's the word of god. there are versions in quran which seem to a de indicate violence against non-muslims. they cherry picked this and created this model. just as the settlement movement

in palestine has said to do with the sanctity of judaea and sue para. we can't understand the extreatment es sides if you don't understand the religion itself. it's not a criticism about religion but it has something to do with islam and the best argument is against characters who understand the religion very well. i can't make those arguments, you+f>> rose: the9 they're making them often enough and with sufficient visibility. >> i have two answers to that in the book. one is the one in northern virginia, he signed a detailed open letter to isis saying it's against islam. it's argued from an islamic point of view. not a critique of isis. he's involved with the young men planning to join isis going to syria and he stopped them. >> rose: with persuasion. >> with persuasion and with

islamic arguments. the profile in the back -- very bright person who grew up with -- almost as if they were brothers. very similar background. nader feels he's more of a secularized muslim. he has a beard and he feel his voice isn't being heard. there are lots of muslims in this country who aren't very deeply muslim. >> rose: the difference he was more of a secular muslim. >> yes. >> rose: what does he say about why. >> why does his cousin carry out this act? he has an interesting story. it was an islamic thing. he was almost 40 not married and he never seemed to have any kind of relationship with a female. both of his parents died when he was relatively young. he was deeply fearful going to fight in afghanistan and he basically went postal and

dressed up in thecy garb of isl. >> rose: let's go overseas. ducer what the strategy is to fight isis. >> i think i do. i mean, it's very easy to say he should be doing more. but the only one who actually gave numbers was lindsey graham in 2000 he's out of the race. everybody is saying do more. >> rose: talking about boots on the ground. >> ted cruz was signify -- i think the president's, maybe it's gone too slowly but it's beginning to ramp up. it's to attack the money, we just blew up the building with their currency but "the new york post" had the best headline. u.s. makes big deposit. >> rose: that's great. >> sometimes really gets it right. so attacking their money,

getting coalition. one of the things not having, the worse thing having a coalition is not having a coalition. >> rose: right, winston churchill said that. >> because we have countries, we got the turks to sort of crack down on the foreign fighters which was a big issue that were transiting turkey into syria. you can say that with great authority was isis is concerned about that. >> rose: haven't i been reading some people in saudi arabia want to do more. >> saudi arabia says they're going to do more and of course that's great if they actually do something more. their concern about isis inside arabia. the parent organization of isis conducted a major terrorist offensive in saudi arabia in 04, 05. so the saudis are very concerned. on the other hand the ideology depends isis will have is sort of fundmentessalist ideology. >> rose: here's what was said if you think about world war ii

terms, you should be thinking of an arab going through posal, capturing through mosul and capturing the so-called capitol of isis. that's what>> the momentum has d against them. we see that with the fall over ramadi which is a pretty big deal. the momentum is beginning to shift against them. they don't have the momentum they did a year ago. >> rose: the president is right. >> one is of speed. could this have been done quicker. could there have been more u.s. forces on the ground, could there have been more air strikes and the like. the short answer is yes. we had 150,000 troops in iraq in 2006 when we were losing the war. and that was not, no american citizen's calling for a major ground invasion of syria and

iraq which is what would be required. >> rose: the president would never do that. >> the people are saying they should do more. they need to think what that more looks like. >> rose: there's no movement on the diplomatic front. >> none. i think that could go on for a very very long time. there's a whole academic literature for how long civil war is going for usually average between 10 to 15 years. well we're in year five of a very nasty civil war. >> rose: in syria. >> in syria. and pretty passive one in iraq. the people that could put the breaks on, the iranians, the saudis, the gulfies, the russians have no interest putting the brakes on. the people more influential is feeling the conflict. >> rose: here's whatlieutenants the top commander in the fight against isis. quote we understand that we're closer to the end of the beginning of this campaign than we are to the beginning of the end. >> which is a paraphrase of a

famous winston churchill line in 1942 when they were interring the north african campaign. they were saying this is not the beginning of the end but this is the end of the beginning. he interestingly was in charge of ramadi during the sunni awakening and he was the one instrumental getting the tribes from anwar province. >> rose: so-called awakening. >> yes. >> rose: the united states of jihad by peter bergen, investigating america's home grown terrorists. thank you peter. >> thank you, sir. >> rose: thank you for joining us. see you next time.

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