captioning sponsored by newshour productions, llc >> ifill: good evening, i'm gwen ifill. >> woodruff: and i'm judy woodruff. >> ifill: on the "newshour" tonight, the first primary election is here. new hampshire casts its vote, on a fateful day for presidential hopefuls. >> woodruff: also ahead this tuesday, we talk with mark shields, david brooks, and our politics duo amy walter and tamara keith to analyze the state of the race for the white house. >> ifill: and, tens of thousands of syrians flee toward the turkish border as the city of aleppo turns into a battlefield. >> ( translated ): we are dying. we are left with nothing but our clothes. we want to be at ease. we want our dignity. it's been five years of living under bombs, crying, "oh god." >> woodruff: all that and more on tonight's pbs newshour.

>> major funding for the pbs newshour has been provided by: >> bnsf railway. >> and with the ongoing support of these institutions: >> this program was made possible by the corporation for public broadcasting. and by contributions to your pbs station from viewers like you. thank you. >> woodruff: the months of campaigning and the endless tv ads have all come to a close today in new hampshire.

this primary day means voters finally have to decide who wins, and the losers have to decide whether to go on. political director lisa desjardins is in new hampshire, where she watched the day's events. >> reporter: the campaign buses rolled across the granite state one last time, and candidates made one last push to sway possible supporters. but many of those voters admitted they were last-minute deciders: >> i just got out of my car and said, "oh my god who am i going to vote for? who am i going to vote for?" >> reporter: for others, it was more excitement than angst in their first experience with the "first in the nation" primary. >> hey, we got a first time voter! >> i don't know, i just felt that it's time for me to become an american citizen. it's my right. so i'm doing it. >> reporter: what a state to have that right. >> i know. live free or die! >> reporter: for the candidates, it's more about living to fight on. hillary clinton ventured into a frosty manchester morning to keep volunteers' spirits up with

a selfie or two, and promised her team won't quit. >> we're going to keep working literally until every last vote is cast and counted. >> reporter: rival bernie sanders was also out, urging along supporters outside a polling site in nashua. among republicans, marco rubio drew a largely friendly crowd at a polling site, but a few detractors as well. one showed up in a robot costume; a pointed reminder of criticism that rubio came off too "programmed" in last saturday's debate. at a later stop, the candidate made clear he won't be deterred, regardless of tonight's result. >> ...then going to south carolina and continue to build as we get into the other states. >> reporter: some of his rivals, too, insisted they're staying in the race. new jersey governor chris christie: >> i'll see you in south carolina. >> reporter: ohio governor john kasich: >> well, we're going to south carolina. ( supporters squeal ) we'll be fine. >> reporter: and former florida governor jeb bush: >> this is a long, long process, and a lot of things can happen in a very volatile year.

so you're going to see me. >> reporter: the man they've all been chasing-- donald trump-- and in the end, some who voted today said it wasn't about the outcome, but about savoring a unique day in democracy. >> that's the most important. it's almost less important, who wins-- that people just exercise their right to vote. >> reporter: from new hampshire, the democratic race moves on to the nevada caucuses on february 20th. the republican primary in south carolina is the same day. but, of course, we're still waiting to see what happens this day. one factor always is turnout. i have to say, judy, the secretary of state, bill gardner, of new hampshire expects heavy turnout. it's been steady at the polls, but there are about 900,000 registered voters in new hampshire. the secretary of state expects 500,000 of them to come out today. judy? >> woodruff: you can feel the excitement all the way here in washington. so, lisa, you were out today at polling places talking to

voters. what are they saying to you? >> you know, there were some of the story lines we've been reporting on. i talked to many donald trump voters today, and they told me to a person that they are not just voting in protest, that they do believe donald trump could be a strong president. i asked them even further, judy, what do you make of the fact that some people say they're offended by donald trump, that think he sort of is too loose of a cannon? they said they know that's true, but they're willing to take that risk because they think america is in such a weak position that they want a leader like donald trump. that's certainly something that came across at the polls. what surprised me the most, two other republicans, i heard the name jeb bush more than i expected and also a lot of john kasich, which we've been talking about before. the jeb bush voters seem to be people having a tough decision between bush, kasich and christie and in this last weekend and one of them today in the hour he voted decided to go with jeb bush. he said he felt jeb bush was the

most president,, someone who stood his ground in the last debate but did not go on the attack. marco rubio also name i heard at the polls. voters who said they liked marco rubio on the republican side told me they felt he was the most erectable. they said they did have doubts after his performance in this weekend's debate, but they're sticking with him because they still think in the long run he's the one who can beat a democrat the most likely. >> woodruff: well, from looking at these early exit polls and how many republicans voters say they made up their minds just in the last few day, that gives you a sense of the level of how unsettled this race is on the republican side. lisa, what about on the democratic side? what are you hearing? >> there i think what we've been talking about, this idea that bernie sanders has caught fire in new hampshire, it's something that i found just in the few polling locations i went to. but i did find with voter after voter who said they like bernie sanders. and i asked, you know what, do you think about his electability. they said, i'm not thinking

about that. i think he does have as much of a chance as hillary clinton, but these voters, judy, told me they are voting with their heart. they're not voting strategically. they are voting for the candidate they themselves would put in office, whether or not they think that's the candidate who is most likely to win in november. for many of those voters i talked to today, that was bernie sanders. >> woodruff: and lisa, you were telling me about some of the radio and television spots playing in new hampshire here in the final hours? >> that's right. it will be a great sigh of relief and there will be many headaches gone tomorrow when these ads stop, but today, judy, there have been even more ads, and system of them even sharper than ever. some of them getting into personal lives. i heard one, a very personal attack on jeb bush, and back and forth between the candidates, especially on radio, judy. we've talked about is only of the candidates' tv ads, but the radio ads are increasingly personal and increasingly sharp. if you drop an ad like that today, it doesn't give a candidate a chance to respond. that seemed to be coming from

the more conservative wing of the party. something i want to point out here, too, when i talked to democratic voters today, judy, all of them seemed to indicate whether they liked bernie sanders or hillary clinton, they would be happy with either of those candidates in the end, not so on the republican party. i know we'll get more into this later in the show. many republicans here feel this is a too-or-die moment for their wing of the party. they feel like this is a amendment where the party either has a future or does not, and that's from both sides, conservatives and moderates. both of them are concerned that the other side of the party will gain momentum here in new hampshire. >> woodruff: well, that's something for us to chew on. all right, lisa desjardins, who is going to be dashing from campaign hotel to campaign hotel tonight. thank you. >> ifill: in the day's other news, president obama sent his eighth and final budget to congress. the $4.1 trillion blueprint includes new spending on cybersecurity and cancer research, and a $10-a-barrel tax on oil to pay for transportation needs. hours after it arrived at the capitol, the president touted

the plan's benefits at the white house. >> the budget that we're releasing today reflects my priorities and the priorities that i believe will help advance security and prosperity in america those for many years to come. these are proposals reflected in the budget that work for us and not against us. >> ifill: but republicans dismissed the plan before it even arrived on capitol hill. arizona senator john mccain said there's not enough spending for defense. and mississippi senator roger wicker said the president should have consulted with g.o.p. leaders first. >> the president's new budget, his final budget as president of the united states has arrived with a resounding thud here in the congress of the united states. this final budget of the obama administration misses the president's final opportunity to reach out and do big things in a time of divided government.

>> ifill: republican leaders pledged to release their own budget plan in the coming weeks. >> woodruff: the head of u.s. intelligence confirmed today that north korea has re-started its plutonium reactor and ramped up uranium enrichment. both are key components of a nuclear weapons program. the director of national intelligence, james clapper, said the north could begin recovering plutonium for bomb- making in a matter of weeks or months. >> ifill: in hong kong, lunar new year celebrations erupted into the worst violence since 2014, leaving dozens injured. it started after police tried to shut down unlicensed food vendors. with that, hundreds of protesters rushed police lines, hurling bricks and swinging sticks. officers fought back with batons and rounds of pepper spray. they arrested more than 60 people. >> woodruff: safety officials in southern germany are trying to understand what caused a deadly train wreck.

the crash today in bavaria killed at least 10 people dead, and injured scores more. emma murphy of independent television news reports from the scene. >> reporter: on one of the safest rail networks in the world, what's left of two commuter trains-- they collided at full speed, just before 7:00 this morning, outside the spa town of bad aibling, an hour from munich. it was a head on collision, both trains on the same track, the impact crushing the front carriages and flipping others off the tracks. >> you could hear people screaming for help, you could hear how glass was being broken to help people get out. and one by one people were getting out, covered in blood, limping. >> reporter: this is the same route the trains were on. it's fitted with an automatic braking system, which should have stopped them if the track was not clear. why it didn't, whether though

human or technical failure, is part of the investigation. walking to this site, what strikes you: it's straight all the way, the rail track running parallel with the canal until you get to the part where the two trains collided. that is where there is something of a bend. the trains would have been going at top speed, around 60 miles an hour. by the time they came out of that bend on the same track, they would not have had time to stop. and the investigation now must establish why they were in the same place at the same time. the crash happened down a single track road between a canal and forest, which meant huge problems for the 700-strong team of emergency service staff. casualties were put into small inflatable ribs to be moved to helicopters and ambulances in germany and austria. dreadful as this day has been, the only relief is that more were not killed. usually these trains would be full of school children, but they were off school today for a carnival. >> woodruff: one person is still

missing in the wreckage, but officials had to call off the search at nightfall. >> ifill: staggering new numbers today on the european migrant crisis. the international organization for migration reports that more than 76,000 migrants have arrived on the continent by sea since january 1. that comes to nearly 2,000 arrivals a day, and it's about ten times more than the same period last year. more than 400 people have died in the crossing attempt this year, up from 69 at this same time last year. >> woodruff: back in this country, hawaii's big island has declared a state of emergency, over an outbreak of dengue fever. there've been 250 confirmed cases of the mosquito-borne illness since late october, the most since the 1940's. the state of emergency allows landfills to accept old tires, which are often breeding spots for mosquitoes. >> ifill: wall street struggled today to avoid another sell-off. in the end, the dow jones

industrial average lost 12 points to close at 16,014. the nasdaq fell 15 points, and the s&p 500 dropped one point. >> woodruff: and, thousands of people had to brave cold winds in new orleans today for the climax of mardi gras. despite the chill, revelers filled the streets of the big easy to enjoy traditional parades, elaborate floats and all the beads they could catch. the celebrations mark the culmination of the carnival season as lent is ushered in. still to come on the newshour: how new hampshire will change the race for the republican nomination. syrians stranded on the turkish border as government forces bear down on aleppo. plus, a look at detroit's crumbling schools. >> ifill: after today, republicans will be one step

closer to settling on a nominee. but there may be even more at stake, as distinct factions fight for the future of the grand old party. poltical director lisa desjardins reports on that from new hampshire. >> reporter: the clusters of signs and intense campaigning show a republican race that has been unpredictable, even by new hampshire standards. phone banks are in high gear at cruz headquarters in manchester. their candidate may have won iowa, but he has not been the headline here. >> reporter: the slightly younger senator from florida marco rubio has seemed to find his groove and big response at his events. >> hillary clinton attacks me more than any other republican because she does not want to run against me, but i can't wait to run against her. >> reporter: but his performance at saturday's debate has raised a new question mark. >> this notion that barack obama

doesn't know what he's doing is just not true. he knows exactly what he's doing. >> there it is. there it is. the memorized 25-second speech. there it is, everybody. >> reporter: playing into ads, like this one from the super pac supporting jeb bush. >> repeating the same answer. and then he did boy in the bubble, i have to go to my robotic talking points. >> reporter: rubio has also been on the attack. >> jeb bush's ideas are old, and wrong. >> reporter: with his superpac going after bush in one ad, ted cruz in another and christie in one more. rubio has found himself in the middle of a much larger party divide here in new hampshire. while some 85% of iowa republicans call themselves conservative, about half of new hampshire republicans identify as moderate or liberal. that means a race here not just between candidates but between opposing party philosophies.

steve macdonald hosts" groktalk," a home-grown conservative radio show in concord that is actively supporting ted cruz. macdonald actually embraces the label "extreme," because he says republicans in office, like rubio and chris christie, have become compromised. >> we are extreme because we believe in smaller government, local control. we'd rather keep the money here and talk to our legislators and our town councils about how to spend the money. and there is an extreme difference in that philosophy, and that's why "extremist" is an appropriate word. >> reporter: but these republicans see the word" extremist" as the problem. renee plummer is here to win business votes for chris christie along with his wife, mary pat. christie is considered establishment by some, and plummer says that shouldn't be a bad thing.

>> when you talk about the constitution, the declaration of independence, the bill of rights, you're talking about establishment. at some point, something has to be "established." >> reporter: plummer is a real estate developer. at her home in portsmouth, she shows me photos of the must-do luncheons she hosts for nearly every candidate. >> governor scott walker was the first one. >> reporter: she fears that the right wing of the party only wants control, not results or compromise. >> i think people become very selfish, you know? they want their small group to be the ones that are going to dominate. how are you going to-- to govern, if you think that your group is right, and everybody else is wrong? it's not going to work. >> reporter: dante scala is a professor at the university of new hampshire who's written a book on the republican divide. he says the 2016 g.o.p. fight highlights a real problem for the party and its presidential candidates. >> republicans are grappling with both left-right divisions, but then also in versus out.

and so that's complicating things, republicans have become very good at building a coalition of voters that excels in midterms when the electorate is older and whiter, but they are having real problems building a coalition that can win presidential elections. >> reporter: here's what the divide means in today's primary. the hard right is pushing for cruz and ben carson, but that's just 20% of republicans here. the bigger group is moderates-- fighting for those votes are three governors: john kasich, christie and bush. hoping to gain from both sides are hard-to-define donald trump, and rubio who is both conservative and established. this all makes for a particularly wild intraparty fight for voters. from moderates... >> it's directionally incorrect with guys like trump and cruz, i think. you need more establishment kind of guys like kasich and christie

or bush. >> reporter: ...to trump voters... >> it needs somebody that's got some balls and is not a regular politician and can get this country back on course. >> reporter: ...to conservatives... >> this country is slipping away from the constitution very rapidly. and if we don't win this election, we're gonna have a lot of problems. >> reporter: ...to the seemingly many late deciders. >> actually, i really don't have to make up my mind yet. >> reporter: new hampshire has been a sprint for candidates to try stay in the republican race, and a test likely to swing at the last minute. in manchester for the pbs newshour, i'm lisa desjardins. >> ifill: we look at what's at stake for both republicans and democrats now with tamara keith of npr who joins us from manchester and amy walter of the "cook political report." so tam, in these last days going into the way this whole thing is sorted out, which candidate seems the most nervous tonight?

>> hmm, i think that's a very good question. well, i think a lot on the democratic side hillary clinton doesn't have a lot of nervousness because there's a resignation to the way things are going to turn out. it's about the margin of victory for vermont senator bernie sanders. on the republican side, i think that someone like chris christie has to be hoping that something will happen. john kasich has been relaxed out on the trail today. so it's... and donald trump, he probably has a lot to be nervous about because he has these huge poll numbers, but in iowa, that didn't translate into a win, and he sure has to hope to get a win tonight. >> ifill: it's really interesting. amy, we've seen first wave of exit polls today from today's voting, which tells us a lot about who voted and when they decided to vote. >> right. so i'm looking for a lot of things in these exit polls, but one of the most interesting is

the independent voters, people who do not define themselves as democrat or republican. they can vote in these primaries as long as they pick one ballot. and on the republican side, 42% of the people who turned out to vote identified as republican -- i'm sorry, as independent, 39% on the democratic side identified as independent. >> ifill: pretty close. >> that's pretty close. kasich needs a big turnout among independents. in 2012, the turnout among independents was almost 50%, and back in 2008 it was 37%. so it's somewhere right in the middle there. it's probably a good number for kasich. the question is: is it good enough? the other question about who is nervous tonight, marco rubio has to be very, very nervous. he came into iowa with a head of steam. as we saw in this report, he's been struggling since the debate to get that momentum back. if he falls behind a kasich, a jeb in this primary, it's going to be a very difficult pivot for him to say that he's the

candidate now who has the momentum going into south carolina. >> ifill: everybody says, we're going to south carolina, but that doesn't necessarily mean they're all going to south carolina. tamara, we were in new hampshire in 1929 when bill clinton declared himself "the comeback kid." we were there in 2008 when it looked like all the polls showed that barack obama was going to win, and he did not. hillary clinton did. what -- behind you is the trump bus, by the way. i'm just letting you know. what going into tonight's vote counting are we watching for a comeback? >> well, this morning i interviewed a couple voters at a polling place who said that they had heard from the hillary clinton campaign, got knocks on their doors while they were still in pajamas. so the clinton campaign is still efforting this and trying to get people out, but i asked one of her campaign officials, what are you looking for?

what are you hoping for? there was no hint of hoping for a win. it was all about how... whether maybe they could get the win for vermont senator bernie sanders into single digit maybe. >> and there is something telling about the fact that hillary clinton went up today with an ad in south carolina talking about racial injustice and systematic racism, not a subtle shift. >> ifill: so the strategy for the hillary clinton people, they... >> they're like, let's go into south carolina where we know the terrain is much more comfortable for us. we know that we're going to have to win over african american voters, do very well among this group. she's already been running an ad featuring former attorney general eric holder. now she's going with this on police violence and other issues. >> ifill: tam, one of the big names coming out of iowa only a week ago was ted cruz. we haven't heard as much about him this new hampshire week. where has he been, and where is

he expected to land? >> this is less friendly territory for him. he really has been running as an evangelical in iowa, which is a great thing in iowa, but here in new hampshire, voters have different sensibilities. and he has been really trying to lower expectations heading into this vote. i think his campaign really believes they have strengths in the states that come after this, in the southern states and south carolina. i think that they feel like they'll be on much more friendly terrain once they get out of new hampshire. >> ifill: speaking of south carolina, you mentioned what hillary clinton is already doing on the air there, amy. we heard today that bernie sanders is meeting tomorrow in new york with al sharpton. obviously people are beginning to change their approach to this. >> that's right. we're going from iowa, new hampshire overwhelmingly white states, not diverse at all, now into southern states like south carolina. we'll go to nevada, as well, which is very heavily latino,

and then into some of these southern states. the terrain changes. it's supposed to be a better terrain for hillary clinton on a whole bunch of measures. but demography being the most important. >> ifill: i saw in one of these exit polls that a lot of self-described liberals voted in this election. does that change, as well, also as they leave new hampshire? >> i think as we leave new hampshire and even as we leave iowa we're going to get to a more moderate electorate, but i think the different, even this year than it was in 2008 certainly when we saw the comeback kid in 1992, the democratic electorate is much more liberal than it has been. this has been the challenge for hillary clinton, trying to keep up with party that keeps moving to the left. it's not the party that it was back in the '90s. >> ifill: and tam, does the more moderate electorate in new hampshire speak to part of the reason why john kasich is the subject of buzz, whether he'll be the subject of votes tonight? >> well, that and that

independents can vote in a different party. and i think john kasich's recipe here is that he would pull democratic-leaning independents to vote for him here. this is a place that's really a sweet spot for him where some of his positions on expanding medicaid and things like that wouldn't necessarily be as much as a problem for him as in some other places. >> ifill: nose to the grindstone up there in new hampshire tonight. thanks for joining us, tam, and thank you here in washington, amy walter. >> woodruff: and now we break down some interesting facts and figures from new hampshire that aren't voting results. here's hari sreenivasan. >> sreenivasan: our data team lookedwhat the numbers say about new hampshire going into tonight's primary results. how does the granite state compare to the rest of the country, and what are new hampshirites saying compared to the rest of country? new hampshire is whiter and more wealthy according to the census bureau. 94% of the voting-age population

is white versus 66% of the u.s. and the median household income is $66,532. that's $12,000 more than the amount you find nationwide. in fact, there are fewer people in poverty in new hampshire, as well. the national poverty rate is nearly 14%, almost twice as high as what's found in new hampshire, slightly more than 8%. and there -- they're more politically active. among new hampshire residents age 18 and older, the census says nearly three out of four are registered to vote compared to about two out of three americans. but what's on the minds of new hampshire voters as this year's election gains momentum in just like in iowa last week, facebook users in this small new england state have more to say about donald trump than any other presidential contender, republican or democrat. next there's ted cruz who won last week's iowa g.o.p. caucus and then marco rubio and jeb bush. the presidential race is two democrats, hillary clinton and bernie sanders, follow trump in generating interest on facebook

there. regarding issues that most concern new hampshire voters, conversation on facebook may offer some clues. campaign finance is the most important topic among facebook users in new hampshire leading up to today's primary vote. next new hampshirites are talking about taxes, the economy, wall street and same-sex marriage. and when new hampshirites want to learn more about this year's candidates, what are they googling? according to the search engine "newslab," interest in rubio peaked after his debate performance saturday, and top trending questions among new hampshire residents include: is marco rubio catholic and is ben carson pro-choice. in an effort to influence the hearts and minds, campaign and special interest groups are buying lots of ads in new hampshire. "the boston globe" reported that since december, more ads have aired in new hampshire both for and against jeb bush than anyone else, interestingly ted cruz was featured in the fewest ads. tonight's vote in new england will show if those ad dollars

make a difference. >> woodruff: and that brings us to the analysis of shields and brooks. that's syndicated columnist mark shields and "new york times" columnist david brooks who joins us from manchester. welcome, gentlemen. so, david, we were just hearing in that report from hari how different the voters of new hampshire are from the rest of the country. you look at iowa and you put it together with new hampshire, you are looking at a different group of the electorate, so what are you looking for these voters to clarify tonight? >> yeah, obviously they're whiter, but then they're also more polarized. what's interesting to me is this electorate according to the exit polls are more polarized than they were in '08. the democrats are significantly more liberal than they were in '08. the republicans are significantly more conservative than in '12 and '08. so this is an electorate like a lot of people around the country who are polarized. i'm also struck by how many late deciders they are. if it's half late deciders, that

means all we've been talking about in the polls, i'd be very surprised if we weren't very surprised by what happens in the next few hours. >> woodruff: mark, what about that, the late deciders and also the differences. first the late deciders, what does that tell you? >> that tells me it's typical new hampshire. in the last 72 hours, 48 hours, you get up to half of the voters deciding, and one measurement i saw reporting is that two-thirds of the voters said that the debate, last thursday for the democrats, saturday for the republicans, influenced their decision in that late delision. so i think that will be a major part of the post-mortem of the results tonight. >> woodruff: mark, what about this question of what are you looking for the results in new hampshire to clarify? this is a different group of voters from the rest of the country. >> it's a different group of voters, judy. there's always been a different group of voters. it is the gateway and the

gatekeeper state of the last ten presidents of the united states, from harry truman, dwight eisenhower to barack obama. nobody has been elected to president of the united states who finished lower than second in the new hampshire primary, either won it or finished second. so maybe history will be broken. if someone finishes fourth, they may go on to be the nominee, but history is a very strong indication that if you don't finish in the top two in new hampshire, you're not going to have a prayer next january 20th. you're not going to have an inaugural parade next january 20th. that's what i'm looking for. also, marco rubio, who was running second in the polls immediately after iowa and n a stronger-than-expected showing, if, in fact, he does tumble to beyond fourth, third, fifth tonight, i think the story has already been written, the narrative is there, it was the debate that did it to him, just as howard dean's scream in 2004 became the exclamation for his

fall from grace. >> woodruff: david, that's a reminder that tonight we don't just look at who the winners are in each party. we're going to be looking closely at who comes in second, third and maybe even fourth. >> right. there's the results and then there's the narrative. and the narratives will be determined by the size of the victory. if donald trump sees final poll numbers around 31, if he's down around 24, 22, we'll have a pattern of underperformance. if he's above 31, suddenly he looks quite strong. if john kasich comes in second, suddenly we have fresh meat, a new story to talk about. if bernie sanders can win... right now he's winning by like 15 in the polls, but if he wins by 25, that's a huge story. if somehow he loses, he's done. and so we'll... the gaps between all the candidates will determine the narrative structure over next few weeks. >> woodruff: david, are you hearing from these candidates an evolving message? do you hear them saying the same kinds of things they were weeks

ago or do you see something developing from these candidates that tells us more about them? >> well, donald trump evolves in random ways, but i don't know if that's developing. what's interesting is how much... you know, the polls to me about immigration on the republican side are very disturbing. two-thirds of republicans here would like to have a temporary ban on all muslims. on the other hand, immigration is not a very salient issue. it's not one of the top concerns. economy is really the top concern on both sides, and on the republican side, kasich and trump are getting the highest ratings on the economy. so they focus on that. but i guess the thing that's most interesting to me, as in the whole campaign, is the electorate is more interested in the candidates. a lot of people who are democrats just want to stop cruz or stop trump, so they're switching over to vote on the republican side, even though they might be no guessives themselves. >> woodruff: it is interesting, mark, the number of

reporters who talk to voters so say, i'm going to go trump or sanders, or they'll name a democrat or a republican. what are we learning in this process about just how unhappy the mesh people are? do we better understand the appeal of these outsiders? >> well, i think trump and sanders, you could say they... these are very much outsider candidates. i mean, politics as usual, washington, the political establishment, they give cold comfort to members of that group or that organization. they are both outsiders. they're both highly critical. i think that is a major thing. just one point about new hampshire, judy, today they had a snowstorm. they will have a turnout in new hampshire, if history is our guide again, that will be higher than all but 44 states in november, in a primary in

february. these are people who take it seriously, take their responsibility seriously, and i mean, they really do a rather remarkable job. so their decision has to be paid attention to, and it will have enormous implications. >> woodruff: and we'll be paying attention. david, you mentioned, we were talking about trump a minute ago. there's been a lot of coverage on this remark he made last night which everyone has bleeped out, at least all the news organizations have bleeped out. and yet the crowd cheered. what do we learn from that? >> part of his appeal is anti-political correctness. he understands that to show you're against the establishment is not only to show it on positions, you show it on manners. and so, in my view, he's taking the manners to professional wrestling. he's in the professional wrestling hall of fame and he's brought it to politics. so the word he used last night was another... yet another example of that. and people like me tut-tut about

it, but the crowd cheered. there is a certain number of people that say, well, that's how i talk, too. >> woodruff: mark, should we draw bigger conclusions and say, this is just one rally, one donald trump remark? >> well, if donald trump wins as the polls predict he will, he has to be taken more seriously, judy. this is such a departure from how americans regard their presidents, whether it's george washington or abraham lincoln or anybody who served in that office. we expect a level of civility. we expect a level of discourse, and donald trump by any measurement is not presidential by that standard. and i think it's matter of taste as well as sensibility he offends an awful lot of people. i will be interested in the exit polls in how many people who don't vote for donald trump tonight have an unchangeable view of him. remember in iowa, a majority of republicans who did not support

donald trump had an unfavorable view of him. and that, of course, would be a reflection of his manner, his approach, his attitude, his disparagement of his opponents and just calling everybody who served in washington in the past generation stupid. i think there are consequences for that. >> woodruff: david, just quickly, does this campaign field, we've been saying this for months, this campaign feels like a different one. do you go into tonight's voting tonight, the results, feeling this stands out as something really different from what we've seen over the past few decades? >> yeah. we've certainly broken every rule of etiquette. we've certainly had the confusion of candidates. i guess i'm mostly struck by how nothing will be settled. we may be more confused tomorrow than we are today. we have another scramble of new candidates, a kasich or a bush rising. usually there's a winner and we clarify things.

we may be more confused after new hampshire, at least on the republican side. >> woodruff: mark? >> and we'll find out, judy, whether there is such a thing as a fire wall after tonight. if, in fact, bernie sanders wins big, if he gets the big win and starts to move, even in areas where he's unknown previously. >> woodruff: well, we look forward to having mark and david with us all evening. mark shield, david brooks, thank you. and stay with us, we'll have a lot more on the new hampshire p >> woodruff: stay with us, we'll have a lot more on the new hampshire primary on our pbs newshour special report at 11:00 p.m. eastern. plus, tune in on thursday, gwen and i will moderate the democratic presidential debate in partnership with facebook from the univeristy of wisconsin-milwaukee. that starts thursday at 9:00 p.m. eastern.

>> ifill: american intelligence officials told a senate hearing today that russia's bombing campaign in syria has stabilized the regime of president bashar al-assad and turned the tide of the five-year civil war against u.s.-backed rebel forces. that is most apparent in aleppo, in northern syria, where tens of thousands have fled as the syrian army closes in. william brangham reports. >> brangham: this is everyday aleppo now: sirens wail as rescue crews rush to the scene of yet another air strike, believed to be the work of russian warplanes. >> ( translated ): we have the planes over us. we have the rockets over us. we are dying. we are left with nothing but our clothes. we want to be at ease. we want our dignity. it's been five years of living under bombs, crying "oh god." >> brangham: syrian government troops, backed by a barrage of russian air-strikes, are fighting their way closer and closer to aleppo.

the united nations warns that 300,000 people are at risk of being trapped inside what was once syria's largest city. rami jarrah is a syrian journalist and activist, now in istanbul, turkey. he was in aleppo just two weeks ago, and spoke today, via skype. >> in the center of the city we are seeing is an escalation, so mainly the marketplaces, and locally heavy populated residential areas are being attacked. >> brangham: as a result, the world food program reported today, conditions are rapidly getting worse. >> we are extremely concerned about the situation on the ground. we are worried about access and supply routes from the north to eastern aleppo that have been cut off. we are making every effort to get food to the people. >> brangham: desperate to escape, tens of thousands of syrians are trying to flee the short, but difficult distance north to turkey, only to find the border cordoned off. >> many people are not being allowed to cross the border, and we are asking turkey to open its border to all civilians from

syria who are fleeing danger and seeking international protection. >> brangham: over the last few years, the turks have already taken in some two and a-half million syrian refugees. and the foreign minister said today his government has started taking in some of the 50,000 syrians massed at the border. but he warned that influx could become a torrent. >> ( translated ): we admitted 10,000 but for the others we will set up camps on the other side of the border. we can only let them through in a controlled fashion. if air strikes continue, the refugee flood could reach 100,000 or even one million. >> brangham: russia insisted today there is no credible evidence that its air strikes have caused civilian deaths. but rami jarrah says the view on the ground in aleppo is decidedly different. >> there is extreme fear amongst the civilians there. they are totally disabling the movement there so if there is any small form of commerce, or business trade that is happening in these areas that people can live off, they are also destroying that.

and they are scaring the rest of the civilians. they are willing to hit these markets. they are willing to hit hospitals, willing to hit local councils, the civil defense for example, then they are willing to kill anyone. >> brangham: underscoring the point, a humanitarian group calling itself the "syria civil defense" posted these images online, showing the aftermath of a russian attack on a refugee camp in northern aleppo. at least five people were killed. the fierce bombardment has also taken a heavy toll elsewhere, according to humanitarian activist mohammad al-hamseh. he's witnessed the scope of russia's aerial onslaught first- hand, farther south in the town of talbiseh, near homs. >> ( translated ): russian planes are bombarding in the morning and evening and inflicting damage to civilians they are killing and hurting civilians daily and also bombing what are supposed to be safe areas in the town of talbiseh. in regards to the humanitarian situation, it is very, very bad. there is no way for any food or

supplies to reach this area. from sugar to flour to oil or gasoline. >> brangham: faced with this escalation, the u.n.-backed syrian peace talks in geneva stalled last week. in washington today, u.s. secretary of state john kerry said moscow's military campaign in syria has jeopardized any prospect for peace. >> russia's activities from aleppo and in the region are making it much more difficult to be able to come to the table and be able to have a serious conversation. we've called on russia and we call on russia again to join in the effort to bring about an immediate cease-fire and bring about full humanitarian access. >> brangham: for the pbs newshour, i'm william brangham. >> woodruff: next, to detroit,

and a city school system in turmoil, plagued with decrepit buildings, financial uncertainty, a chronic lack of resouces, and now, a recent wave of teacher "sick-outs." all of it is fueling a growing anxiety that the system could run out of money in coming months. april brown has our report, part of our "making the grade" series, which airs every tuesday. >> we started to call it a theme geyser because we really don't know what it is. if you notice there are steam coming out there. is also liquid spewing out from it. so it's very dangerous because it causes the temperatures on the playground to reach 110 degrees. >> reporter: ms. wilson is the councilor at this school. but for the last three years she says steam and water, reportedly

from the sewer system, have been seeping out of the concrete in the parking lot and shooting out of this pipe a few feet away. this is your only playground? >> reporter: what do your kids do for exercise now? >> our kids are walking the hallway. they've become like mall walkers. >> reporter: the gym she referred to is now locked and sealed in plastic. but before that happened, a few cameras captured what is there. if we were to go inside what would we see, how would you describe it? >> a scary movie, the floor has been removed the parquet. now what you see is a layer of blackness. we've been told it was black mold, in fact the city inspector said that it was mold. >> reporter: teachers, and staff say they've had building issues for years, including mold, water damage, and broken windows. some of which city inspectors recently cited as code violations. india brimberry, the school's student health aide, is among those concerned these problems are affecting the health of those who work and study here.

>> i see a lot of nosebleeds, a lot of stomach aches, a lot of headaches, vomiting, every day. >> reporter: the conditions at spain, along with structural and maintenance problems at other schools in the detroit public school district, came to light last month after more than 80 were closed because of the most recent in a series of teacher "sick-outs" over working conditions. soon afterward the mayor ordered nearly all the city's schools be inspected. this is one of the first schools city inspectors came to. cody houses three separate high schools and here the inspectors found 30 violations including mold, mildew and evidence of rodents and insects. the detroit institute of technology, a college prep school located at cody is where christal bonner teaches. she was among a group of teachers, parents and students who wanted to share their many experiences with issues including large class sizes, and few resources, in a district that may soon run out of money. >> how can you call yourself

detroit institute of technology when your technology is nonexistent or very low. we just have some outdated desktop dells. some outdated netbooks, and a in a couple of rooms you might have a smart board. that's it. >> reporter: 18 year old lucas beal is a senior at communication and media arts high school a few miles away. >> in my math class, there are not enough textbooks. some of the pages are missing, so we have to scramble around, try to take pictures of the problems we have to do, share the books. >> reporter: at yet another high school, cass technical, senior ashley carson is among a group of students there who organized a walk-out both to support teachers and protest the poor conditions. she says that even though the physical conditions at cass tech aren't as bad as some others, having so few resources is demoralizing: >> it's kind of like you feel like you're the bottom of the

barrel. like we're not worth anything. we may know different but what they're showing us is that we're not worth something. the conditions we go to school >> reporter: arlyssa heard pulled her son out of a detroit public school, but is still concerned about what's happening. >> how long can you go without enough supplies, no prep time? >> i'd love to ask the teacher in the room, how do you keep going? >> well, good question. i guess i keep going because the students, miss bonner, are you coming back next year? >> reporter: bonner has stayed in the classroom, but many other teachers have quit. and after january's large-scale teacher sick out by many who remained, the district sued to stop similar protests in the future. the district's head of communications, michelle zdrodowski. >> we understand the teacher's

frustration. we're frustrated. we feel the same things teachers feel but ultimately teachers need to be in the classroom teaching when you close 88 schools on one day that doesn't help kids. >> reporter: the teachers' union next announced it was filing suit against the district-- alleging it is not providing a "minimally adequate education" or properly maintaining the schools. ivy bailey is the interim president of the detroit federation of teachers: >> you shouldn't have to worry if water is dropping on your head if you're breathing in mold spores. if there's a teacher sitting in front of you, coat on all day, >> reporter: but district officials say they've been trying their best to solve the problems. >> when there are life and safety issues we've done our best to address those as quickly as possible-- bigger picture issues like complete roofs that need replacing. we just don't have the funds for right now.

>> reporter: the mayor described the schools as the worst performing of any large city in america. the district financial situation has been declining for more than a decade, along with its enrollment, which plummeted from more than 140,000 in 2005 to about 47,000 a decade later. at the same time, revenue has dropped from roughly $1.4 billion to less than $800 million. and now expenditures exceed revenue. the district is now on the brink of insolvency, with more than $500 million of debt. emergency managers effectively took control away from the local school board in 2009. >> i think it's critically important we improve education in detroit. >> reporter: darnell earley was appointed a year ago, but earley has been under fire for his tenure as the emergency manager in flint michigan when the city switched its water supply in a cost-cutting measure, which resulted in lead

contamination and a public health crisis. earley resigned last week but is still in his post until the end of february. why is mr. earley not available? >> he's doing the work of the district. >> reporter: detroit public schools head >> reporter: detroit public schools head of communications michelle zdrodowski. >> as an emergency manager he was responsible for coming in and addressing the financial emergency. if you look at our audit report for fiscal year 2015 it shows that were it not for the $515 million in long term debt we would have had a $13 million surplus. >> reporter: but just last month, earley acknowledged "the district will run out of cash in april." governor snyder says he plans to appoint a transitional leader for detroit public schools before the end of the month. there is legislation pending that could eliminate the $515 million debt and offer millions more for restructuring, but also concerns the district could file for bankruptcy.

lucas beal hopes the money and improvements come soon enough to benefit younger students, because he doesn't expect they'll be in time to help him. >> i'm a senior and i'm about to go off and i might know half of the stuff i need but i might not because of lack of resources. >> reporter: for the pbs newshour i'm april brown in detroit. >> woodruff: updating the top stories, the presidential hopefuls are waiting for the results of the year's first primary. polls close in new hampshire at 8:00 p.m. eastern. and this evening, the u.s. supreme court has blocked president obama's plan to curb carbon dioxide emissions from power plants until legal challenges are resolved. 27 states and industry groups want the regulation struck down.

>> ifill: later tonight, on most pbs stations, don't miss "the fantasy sports gamble." frontline teams up with "the new york times" to investiagte the phenomenon of on-line fantasy sports sites, exploring-- among other things-- whether playing constitutes gambling. on the newshour online, there's a reason the newest generation of democratic voters aren't connecting with hillary clinton the same way older democrats have, and it's not just bernie sanders. we talked to younger voters in new hampshire to find out how they view the former secretary of state. that's on our home page. you'll also find the latest results from today's new hampshire voting, and a calendar of upcoming primaries and debates. all that and more is on our web site, pbs.org/newshour. >> woodruff: and that's the newshour for tonight. join us later at 11:00 p.m. eastern for special live coverage of the results of the new hampshire primary. i'm judy woodruff. >> ifill: and i'm gwen ifill. for all of us at the pbs newshour, thank you and see you later tonight.

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