this is "nightly business report" with tyler mathisen and sue herera. >> can you believe the rally? stocks and commodities up sharply since the february lows, but can you trust this market to go higher? house divided. two prominent members of the federal reserve are split on a key condition for further interest rate hikes. showing support. the big money backers behind the candidates running for the white house. all that and more tonight on "nightly business report" for monday, march 7th. good evening, everybody. glad you could join us. the dow and s&p 500 extended their recent rally and what a rally it's been. stocks surging helping to cut the big losses earlier this

years. the bounce back has been sharp and swift. since the lows on february 11th, the major indices is up 7% or more and oil has gained 35%. what's driving the rally, and has the market entered a new phase? bob takes a look from the new york stock exchange. >> reporter: the market has entered a goldilocks window. the most important development is commodities have put in an intermediate term bottom. iron ore has rallied dramatically in the last few days. this is positive implication for earning. it's good news for energy and material stock. they led the rally. it's also eased some of the worries the loans to banks have out to energy companies and it's dramatically decrease worries about an out of control deflationary spiral. it's also helped greatly reduce the fears that some kind ofe global recession might be

imminent. that's led to a huge rally at emerging market economies with russia, brazil and south africa all up double digits in the last few days. the market has come to strongly anticipate that the fed will lower its anticipations for rate hikes at its march 16th meeting. fed governor sounded like she was in no hurry to raise rates in an interview today. today on wall street, stocks did creep a little bit liae -- higher. by the close, the blue chip index was up 67 points. 17,073 was the finish. the nasdaq lost eight. the s&p 500 gained one. opec members are discussing a

50-dollar a barrel target for oil prices. >> commodities across the board have seen a strong comeback. there's one commodity in particular that might fuel the bull case for stocks. >> from crude to copper, commodities are back. it may not be for a long time, but it's been a good time so far. oil has jumped nearly 40% since mid-january. gold is at its highest level until a year. copper is back above $5,000. iron ore has not just joined be party but spiked the punch having recorded its best day gain ever. recovery is being driven by optimism that the worst may be behind the oil price. china's willingness to do what it takes to support economic growth in the world's second largest economy and weakness in the u.s. dollar. some thing the come back is just getting started. >> where do we go from here? higher. we go higher from here. >> others wonder if it's a

little bit too early to be celebrating. >> i still think it has a short life. this is not where the leadership is in the market. china is slowing down. it's not growing. when you look at the commodity, it's going to be in the trading range and not just for quarters but years. >> the key to the comeback may be dr. copper. the base medal earned its phd. >> i don't think the rally in copper is telling us we're having a strong economy. maybe the excessive doom and gloom we had priced in before was excessive. ecb is all in. it's tight supplies. >> if history is any guide, copper's big game may be a bullet signal for equities which have been rebounding over the

last few weeks. one month after such a rally, the dow has climbed higher 90% of the time and the s&p 50080% of the time. oil has rebounded returning more than 5% on average. interestingly enough copper itself does not typically continue to rally. the doctors diagnosis may be a short term reprieve. for "nightly business report," vancouv vancouver, canada. >> there's another trend. short interests or markets that they are betting against. these hated stocks could be part of the reason why the market has been rallying. >> reporter: there are lots of ways to measure sentiment about a stock but one way that's getting a lot of attention is something called short interest. simply put, it looks at how much traders and investors are

wettiwet i -- betting against a stock. they borrow a stock to sell at current prices hoping they can buy it back for less sometime in the future, pay back their stock loan and pocket the difference. when lots of people do this type of stock borrowing, it may indicate sentiment about the future of a stock. there's close to 50 members of the s&p 500 large cap index that have 10% of their shares betting on a decline. when a stock has fallen a lot, profits are there for short sellers, if they buy that stock to repay their loans. that may be what's driving up prices for a lot of these beaten down stocks especially in the energy and material sectors. for example, oil drilling company transocean has gained 50% over the last week. murphy oil has gained around 60% and natural gas company

chesapeake energy has more than doubles. each has among the highest short interest in the index. there's a concern if the current rally is driven by this closing of short positions instead of buying perceived value, it may not last. there may be reason to stay cautious about the overall market. >> i think the market is worried about europe and the threat of negative interest rates. i don't think it does anybody any good to have that. i think that's one of the things that's driving banks down here. i think the market's focused on china and can they pull off that soft landing and get their growth urnnder control. >> reporter: still others are convinced there's bullish fuel in the tank. >> it has lots of legs basis the policy makers can provide a great deal of support still. we believe this will be one of the longest business cycles that any of us has ever experienced. as the cycle progresses, the bull market will continue to rally.

>> reporter: investors will be watching developments on numerous fronts include sentiment caters like short interest. karen cavanaugh joins us to talk about the changes that are happening in the market and why inve investors may be missing out if their sitting on the sidelines. welcome to the program. >> thank you. >> let's start with whether or not you think we can trust this rally. that was the question we posed at the beginning of our program. why don't you weigh in on that. in the short term, i don't think you can trust it. i think investors were overly pessimistic and the data has been coming in better. all the economic data and the jobs report. inve investors are breathing a sigh of relief and maybe things were oversold. you have to take a look at the

corporate earnings and they are not growing. we're in a bit of a profits recession. i would say it's going to be touch and go until we can get the earnings to turn around and the companies to start making money again. >> you have to wait for those first quarter earnings to tell us whether this is real or not. china's not going the die. i think we have decided that. oil is not going to go to zero. i think we've decided that. is oil -- is 40 dollar oil enduring here or is it still vulnerable to a big fall off again? >> i think it's vulnerable. if it gets to a point are a lot of suppliers can make money on it then they will come back online. i think we'll be a little bit range bound in oil. if it gets to a certain amount more supply then the prices will go down. overall, oil is good for the consumer and a lot of bad news

is already baked in. we already digested it and eats the bad news with the energy companies. we have been so overly pessimistic on that. if oil can stabilize, it doesn't have to go up that much. the market has been feeling so more optimistic. >> longer term, you say people need to be invested in this market. what areas do you like? >> people should always be in the market. when you try to time market, try to gain that, it doesn't usually work out. i do like bonds. i think with all the volatility, a lot of investors realize they reliable, steady d th bonds. things like jenny mays which may not be too exciting but with there when you need them. it's probably a good opportunity to get in. we're not going to see the defaults we thought we were going to see or maybe -- also, being in the market, the financial sector has opinion

beaten up. is that really warranted? financial consumer discretionary, the counnsumers, the benefits and the loans. >> on that note, we'll leave it there. thank you. karen cavanaugh. china and its willingness to do whatever it takes to support growth is one reason why commodity prices have been rising. over the weekend, top government officials in china pledged reforms to prop up the world's largest second economy. eunice has the details from beijing. >> reporter: the chinese government has acknowledged concerns about the economy and the continued slow down in growth. the chinese premier unveiled the annual work report and he said authorities decided to lower the gdp target to arrange a 6.5 to

7%. that was seen as a positive. many economists are concerned that policymakers will struggle to reach growth at those levels. at the same time policymakers were basexpressing their confide that china would avoid a hard landing. the finance minister addressed an issue that's been plaguing the economy, rising debt. >> take the united states, for example, the current debt level is a lot higher than the 2008 standard. the economy is still recovering. we can't generalize that high debt will lead to crisis. it will impose more downward pressure on the economy. we need to regulate the debt. if we can get the debt included into our fiscal plan we won't have to be concerned that much. >> he also said the government had more room for fiscal stimulus. the deficit was lifted to 3% of

gdp from 2.4% in 2015. main take away might be a message that economists don't want to hear and that is the authorities appear to be p prioritizing growth over economy. if the government continues to delay economic reform, it could hold up near term growth but lead to bigger consequences down the road. still ahead, a big agreement within the fed over an issue that could determine the timing of the next rate hike.

wages may be growing faster than believed, that according to a new study by the san francisco fed. growth found in the median pay of workers employed in full time jobs rose nearly 4%. that compares to 2% as reported by the labor department. it sites make up in the labor force including entry of low wage workers and the retirement of higher paid baby boomers. two federal reserve officials speaking this afternoon presented very different views on inflation, a central condition for further interest rate increases. steve tells us why vice chair stanley fisher say the same thing differently. >> reporter: as the feds hope for 2% inflation goal within grasp, two officials speaking today. look at the same numbers but they have different take aways.

vice chair stanley fisher told an audience. >> we may be seeing the first stirrings in an increase in the inflation rate, something the fed would like to happen. >> reporter: his colleague had a less enthusiastic take. while it'ke been positive, he said. >> that's a good data point, but it's just that. it's a data point. i want to see a pattern. that would give me comfort. we have a lot of very positive developments in our domestic economy. you look at the labor force. the labor forces expanding. people are coming back into the labor force as the labor market remains very solid. american consumers are continuing to be very robust. that's why i am very focused on pro serving and protecting the progress we've made. >> reporter: he sees downside from oversees especially china. while she's focused on the u.s.,

she says the u.s. needs tho mo o monitor and be aware of other bank moves. >> what we all need to be doing at central banks, and including fiscal authorities around the world is working to raise global demand. >> reporter: the fed is not expected to hike at its meeting next week but the battle line seems to be june. she's cautious, persistent inflation near 2% and continued rebound in economic data could tee up a consensus for another quarter point hike this summer. a strong holiday quarter helped lift pier 1. that's where we begin tonight otonight's focus. strong emphasis on clearance items during the holidays. they expect surge of 29%.

>> valley pharmaceuticals will issue its preliminary results and outlook next week. the company had been slated to report at the end of february but postponed as the company's ceo returned from a two-month sick leave. . >> shares gained 7% to 65.66. ncr raised its guidance for the year and said it will buy back $250 million of its stock. the atm maker purchased billion dollars of shares back in december. those shares rose today to 25.78. oscar munoz will return back to work after undergoing heart transplant surgery. he's been actively involved in corporate decisions during his recovery. the shares were down just a tick. shake shack beat estimates on its top and bottom line. shares fell in afterhours

trading on lower than expected sales. same store sales rose 11%. shake shack closed the regular session up a fraction to 42.23. the clothing retailer urban outfitters reported better than expected profits. investors were happy with the results. urban was up more than a percent to 28.16. today campaign trail we go where there's a lot of money backing the candidates, super pacs. these are independent political committees that support candidate with unlimited, often anonymous donations. from what industries do the big donors come? who are they? >> when you look at the list of the top givers, you see lot of finance names and hedge funds and people who have founded their own companies. those guys seem to be the type

of personality who want to write a big, big check to one of these super pacs and back one of these candidates. now that we have seen the winnowing effect of the campaigns and we see that of the donors. the donors who backed a losing horse will have to change their decision. >> who has the biggest hitter, the liberals or the con sserva e conservativ co you hav to say the liberals. they ranked some of the top liberal donors here. you see familiar names from business. george soros. james h. and marilyn and donald sussman. those are the biggest liberal donors. the biggest donors to conser conservative groups, robert mercer. the wilkes brothers.

paul singer and norman braman. a lot of big names and business founders giving to conservative and liberal causes. >> how about donald trump, is he taking money? >> he's not. he's mostly self-financing the campaign. he's not spending all that much money. this campaign up ends what we thought we knew about money and politics. donald trump proving having a billion dollars or more is enough to get you the kind of media attention. that means you don't have to spend a billion dollars or more. >> he may have to spend a little bit if the attacks start adding up. >> he'll have to. if he wants to run a general election campaign, he'll have to build a real presidential campaign with offices and staff in every city. that's expensive and a big logistic logistic challeng we'll see where he goes.

he has the pocketbook or he says he does. >> thank you. the quarterback who is going out a financial champion off and on the field. wall street bonuses fell, took home 146,000 last year. according to the new york state comptrollers office that's a 9% drop in 2014. the fall reflects a challenging year. industry profit off 10%. while bonuses fell employment rose for the second year in a

row. calling an audible. that's what peyton manning is doing one last time. after nearly two decades in nfl, he's retiring. his aaccompliccomplishments on d have translated off of it. >> reporter: peyton manning announced this season was his last. the 39-year-old star informed the broncos and the rest of the world he's retiring. >> there's something about 18 years. 18 is a good number. today i've retired from pro football. >> reporter: the two time super bowl winner, five time mvp and four time probowl player is considered one of the greatest quarterbacks of all time. and his portfolio is also stellar. >> i don't know if you can think of player who have had more impact over the last two decades. this is great opportunity to go out on top.

there's no doubt he will be able to capitalize on that. >> reporter: manning will retire as the nfl's all time highest paid player earning more than 248 million in his career. that puts him far ahead of tom brady and lebron james and michael jordan. he's also the face of many of america's biggest companies if nationwide to nike. >> i'm really high voice manning and i have cable. >> reporter: he earned more than $12 million off the field. his endorsement deal with papa johns including the fact he owns more than 20 franchises in the denver area. now that jersey number 18 is hanging up his cleats, what can we expect? >> i'm totally convinced that tend of my football care e of m beginning of something i haven't discovered yet. life is not shrinking for me. it's morphing into a whole new

world. >> reporter: he may follow in the footsteps of john elway and land a front office position. their post career businesses prove to be even more lucrative than the playing careers. even with all the trophies and awards, he may not be done winning just yet. >> i love him. that's "nightly business report" for tonight. i'm sue herera. thanks for joining us. we want to remind you, this is the time of year your public television stations needs your support. >> we thank you for that support. i'm tyler mathisen. have a great evening. we'll see you back here tomorr -i'm a writer.

i don't have a scientific background. and i thought, "am i qualified to take people on this journey and offer any kind of advice?" but as i delved into it, i began to realize it was actually a strength. i brought a very open mind, and i think i could see it freshly. i had spent a lot of time writing articles and books tracing the food chain and showing people where their food came from, how it was produced -- following meals all the way back to the farm. but i found that what i kept hearing from readers was, "yeah, yeah, yeah, you've told me where the food comes from and how the animals live and everything. but what i really want to know is what should i eat?