>> announcer: this is "nightly business report" with tyler mathisen and sue herera. >> not far off, fed policy makers meet and while no rate hike is expected tomorrow, the next one may be on their radar. global hot spots. they have been ignored recently by the markets even though they are not cooling off. the money behind the madness. what a big win could mean for a small school's bottom line. all of that and more tonight on "nightly business report" for tuesday, march 15th. >> good evening, everyone. welcome. the focus tonight on washington. it is a crucial day in the race for the white house. and the federal reserve kicked off its two-day meeting and that is where we begin tonight. many expect the central bank to lead interest rates right where they are, unchanged, standing

pat for a second straight meeting. as steve liesman reports, a new survey of the top economists, strategists and money managers say the next rate hike may not be too far off. >> the cnbc fed survey shows that the policy announcement is expected tomorrow but wall street still expects the federal reserve to act this year in terms of raising rates. let's look at the data. 95% of our respondents say the fed will stand pat in march and not hike. but 12% think there will be a hike before june and 71% think there will be a hike at the june meeting. put that together and it's 83% that expect it to come by june. 17% say there will be a hike after june. looking ahead towards the rest of the year, what you see is that only two hikes are expected. compare that to the december survey before the whole markets and what we have with the concerns about recessions.

three rate hikes were expected but that came down and remains down. two hikes expected. how about the longer term? let's look. the survey is looking for a 0.8% fund rate. 1.6% at 2017 and 2.7% over the long run. how does that compare to where the fed is, 1.4%, 2.4% and 3.5% so the market is baking in less tightening from the federal reserve than the federal reserve itself. one thing we expect tomorrow is for a new projection from fed officials and for that to come down. we'll see how things like the recent lousy retail sales report factored into that forecast but expect those to come down and it's something that will be watched closely with the policy announcement tomorrow. for "nightly business report," i'm steve liesman. and as steve liesman just mentioned, retail sales fell in february and the figures for january were revised lower. sales at retail stores and restaurants declined .1% last

month. this is a key barometer for overall spending. a separate report showed producer prices decreased 2% in february, an indication that inflation pressures remain modest. business inventories rose more than forecast in january. the congress department said inventory is a key component of gross domestic product but the ratio of inventories to sales reached a post-recession high. and that is a sign that companies may not be able to sell what they've been producing. ceos say the economy has room to improve. a survey released by the business round table, a group of business leaders from some of the country's biggest companies, finds that ceo expectations on the economy remain mixed. mary thompson joins us with more on that. what did the survey tell us, mary? >> first of all, their outlook improved from the fourth quarter. the index itself remained well below its long-term average.

the ceos are expecting to see an increase in sales. that's good news. and they are also expecting to increase their capital expenditures, good news for the economy. to the down side, though, they are all planning to dial back on hiring. >> so they are more optimistic than they were but they are hardly optimistic? >> yes. they still feel that there are things that need to happen to make the economy run at full steam. >> let's talk about trade, which has been a controversial topic on the campaign trail. where do these ceos stand on where trade is a job creator or job killer? >> there was a specific question about the transpacific partnership. they are much in favor of it. they expect it to improve their business, make them more competitive globally and increase their exports. keep in mind, these are the largest companies and a number of critics with the tpp say these are the companies that would most benefit.

>> so they would naturally be inclined to favor it. >> overall, what kind of a track record does it have? is it a good predictor of what is going to happen in the economy? >> of ceo sentiment. its track record is next. i wouldn't look to this as an exact reading but certainly gives you a sense of what they are thinking of. >> but it's an indication? >> yeah. >> no political questions there. they don't ask who they favor, do they? >> occasionally they do. but no -- not this time. it was all about trade which, of course, is a -- >> right. it's a political -- these days. mary, thank you very much. from there, we go to politics and the five battleground states. ohio, north carolina, florida, illinois, missouri, they hold their republican and democratic primaries today and there's a lot of on the line, especially in ohio and florida, which are winner-take-all contests for the gop. we have eamon javers in palm

beach and we are also in the buckeye state. >> reporter: ohio is big and diverse with a long history of picking presidents. but tonight it could also decide the direction of a party. >> this country is about us coming together. this country is not about us tearing one another down. >> reporter: republicans are pinning all their hopes tonight on popular ohio govern john kasich, considered the narrow favorite here. but trump is conceding nothing. >> you've got to beat kasich. he's not going to be a great president. he's not going to be strong. >> i am very clear, i want to build on the progress we've made. >> reporter: on the democratic side, hillary clinton, who beat barack obama here in 2008, is the odds-on favorite again. but bernie sanders is aiming for another upset by hitting free trade agreement that he claims have cost ohio jobs. >> it is time, brothers and

sisters, that we create an economy that work for all of us. >> crazy busy. mass tif turnout. >> reporter: at this precinct near columbus, voters are well aware of what's on their shoulders. >> it seems like it always comes down to ohio so it's always ohio, ohio, ohio. >> reporter: a potential wildcard, democrats crossing over to vote republican, like this woman near youngstown voting for trump. >> really, there was no choice in the democrats. i mean, no option there at all. >> reporter: for the republicans, no candidate has ever lost the ohio primary and then gone on to win the nomination but for both parties the fate of the entire campaign could rest right here. scott cohen, "nightly business report," black lake, ohio. ♪ >> do you solemnly swear we will perform -- >> primary in florida, one of

the five states voting today, which means swearing in poll workers, putting up signs and waiting are to the voters to make up their mind. there's an enormous amount at stake here, 99 delegates go on the republican side and 214 plus 32 superdelegates for the democrats. hillary clinton had a commanding lead on the democratic side and donald trump is well ahead of home state senator marco rubio for the republicans as well. >> but the polls have been wrong before in this wild political year and some of the people we've talked to said they have made up their minds just within the past several days. >> after a lot of consideration, i'm going to vote for donald trump. >> reporter: and why is that? >> in retrospect, he's the most qualified at this point. it's time to clean up washington. >> well, i'm a clinton person so that's who i'm going to vote for. she's expected to carry the state. she has the most experience. she's the only one that i've heard real, actual policy from. >> reporter: but the voters here in florida could be a key piece

of an insurmountable lead for one of the front-runners. for "nightly business report," i'm eamon javers in palm beach, florida. back on wall street, stocks were mixed as oil prices declined and investors await that decision from the federal reserve. the dow jones closed at 17,251. nasdaq lost 21 and s&p 500 fell more than three. oil prices retreated as the focus returned to the global supply glut. domestic crude fell more than 5%. the white house is reversing its stance of drilling in the atlantic. it will not auction off drilling rights off the coast of north carolina, georgia and florida. the decision is a blow to some energy companies. the treasury department is loosening more sanctions on cuba. the new measures will make it easier for americans to visit that country and it allows nonimmigrant cubans in the u.s. legally to earn salaries.

mail service between the two countries will resume for the first time in 50 years. for the moment, it seems, geopolitics have taken a back seat to domestic politics but the issues that those markets fretted about at the start of the year are still percolating. maybe investors should keep an eye on them, too. fighting in the middle east. the hunt for terror suspects in the middle east and missiles by north korea. nothing has really happened to cool off any of those hot spots. in the past 36 hours, a surprise in syria. russian began pulling back its military presence, sending several military jets home. a sign the cease-fire is holding? perhaps. but no one is sure how long vladimir putin intends to keep troops in syria or what effect the pullout will have on u.n.-led peace talks taking

place in geneva. turkey launched air strikes armed at kurdish rebels in iraq following this deadly bomb attack in ankara. there was a bombing last month of a military convoy and last october, a suicide bombing at a rally. also in ankara. this came just days before president erdogan is to meet with angela merkel. in 15 months, a million migrants, many fleeing the civil war in syria, have departed from turkey by sea headed to europe. especially cypress and greece. several balkan countries have left people stranded. there are counterterrorism raids linked to the paris attacks.

two suspects escaped over rooftops. 11 people have been arrested in belgium and another eight detained there in connection with those paris incidents. also today, north korean leader kim jong-un said his country would soon test a nuclear warhead and ballistic missiles capable of carrying them. such tests would violate u.n. resolutions backed by north korea's chief ally, china. >> and this week's test of a ballistic add iran to the mix and you wonder how long they can keep their window of relative calm. what investors are doing to change transportation as we know

it. the big enterprise company oracle beat expectations and increased its share buyback by $10 billion. the company, which is moving more of its cloud pulled down 64 cents a share in profit, 2 cents and weak data software sales. revenue from its cloud business was strong and that, say most people, is the future. and that helped send shares higher in initial afterhours trading as you see there. >> shares of valeant were cut in half today. they lowered the earning guidance and cut the revenue outlook by $1.5 billion, citing

weaker than expected sales in the gastrointestinal and women's health. they may delay filing it is annual report putting it in danger of possibility defaulting on some of its debt. shares lost more than 51% to 33.51. steep discounting at dfw caused its quarterly profit to fall more than half but the shoe retail and comparable store sales rose despite expecting a decline. they issued an upbeat revenue while expecting earnings to fall. shares rose 3% to 28.34. avon is cutting more than 2,000 jobs as it plans to move its new york headquarters to the uk in an effort to reduce costs. this comes after the medical company sold its business to a private equity firm two weeks ago. shares fell 8% to $4.02.

children's place saw its shares rise and issued a positive full-year outlook and raised its quarterly dividend to 20 cents a share. shares rose to $76.48. alare has received a subpoena about its sales practices out of the u.s. it will delay filing its annual report. shares dropped to 49.32. during february, same-store sales declined at chipotle and began to recover a bit but the restaurant chain expects a worse than expected loss of a dollar or more per share for it is first quarter. and that us kacaused shares to initially following the after the bell news. that was on a 2 1/2 point decline. shares there closed at $503 even.

south by southwest, you'll find musicians, entrepreneurs and tech industry leaders at the annual gathering. it might be surprising to hear that one of the big discussions this year had to do with overhauling our transportation system. julia boorstin is in austin. the department of transportation wants to help cities become smarter by embracing everything from driverless cars to electric vehicles to ride sharing. transportation secretary anthony fox unveiled the seven finalist cities. a competition to generate high-tech solutions for the future of transportation. >> this is not about just having one city win. this is about having our incubators of innovation, cities across the country actually thinking about the future, making plans for the future that can be actually done and although we only have one winner, we're going to work with all 77 of the other cities to give them a pathway to move forward as much as we can with

what they have planned out. >> reporter: the winning city gets $40 million from the government, plus $10 million from paul allen to invest in a car infrastructure. austin, one of the finalists, would use the money to continue initiatives already under way to solve what the mayor call as seve severe mobility challenge. >> we are the only city outside of california that has autonomous vehicles being run and streets being tested. this is the way of the future. this is a city that owns its own electric utility. we have opportunities that exist there that are unique to austin, texas. >> reporter: and here in austin at south by southwest, there is particular focus on how local governments and companies can work together. >> in technology and transportation, there's no way the public sector can solve all of the transportation problems on its own. we are chronically

underinvesting, for one thing, and i think our imaginations have been stunted by the lack of resources. on the other hand, you have the technology and innovation world coming up with solutions that could practically be solved. >> reporter: denver already has a number of companies on board. >> we're competitive and we had over 55 partners, public and private companies, companies like panasonic and toyota. companies you will remember and know from their brands, national renewable laboratory who came to the table and said let's make this happen. >> reporter: with the department of transportation reaching out to developers and entrepreneurs here at the festival, the goal is to bring in a range of voices and it won't end when the winner of the challenge is announced in june but it aims to continue for years to come. for "nightly business report," i'm julia boorstin in austin, texas. and while we're talking about transportation, americans were stuck in traffic for 8

billion hours last year and ty was one of them. the city with the worst traffic was los angeles where commuters spent 81 hours in traffic in 2015. washington, d.c., and san francisco are close behind. but the analytics who did the study said it's not all bad news. increased traffic often means the economy is getting stronger. coming up, what a big win in the big dance could mean for a small school. the federal reserve releases

its statement on interest rates and economic forecasts followed by a news conference with chair janet yellen. housing starts and industrial production all due out and fedex considered a barometer for the economy releases its earnings and that is what to watch wednesday. spending on prescription drugs rose more than 5% last year. according to pharmacy benefits manager express scripts, it was driven by the use of specialty medicines. spending on such drugs rose 18% while spending on standard prescription drugs was less than 1%. march madness is upon us again which means lots of money flowing from television networks to the ncaa and its member schools. where does all of that money actually go? a sports economist at smith college is joining us. mr. zimble, thank you for joining us. when we're talking about the ncaa men's basketball

tournament, how much money are we talking about? >> so they bring in about $770 million on their television contract and maybe another $150 million on ticket sales and concessions. so altogether, somewhere in the neighborhood of 850 to $900 million each year. and of that they distribute about $200 million to the teams participating in the tournament, according to how the teams do. >> so that's their primary source of income? >> the ncaa gets about 90 to 95% of its revenue from the march madness tournament. >> wow. >> the football championship playoff that started two years ago is privately run by the power five conferences within division one. they get all of the revenue from that and that never goes to the ncaa. it's the basketball money that keeps the association going. >> that's a little known fact, that the college football

playoffs aren't owned by the ncaa. i assume they are sanctioned by them. so 200 million of that roughly 900 million go to the participating team. the other 700 million goes where? to the ncaa or to whom? >> well, it doesn't all go to mark's pocket. he has a healthy salary but it's not that large. they give out most of it to the schools. there are roughly 1100 schools in the ncaa. they support 85 different championship tournaments. not the football tournament in division one but all of the other ones that it supports, they have scholarship funds they give out to the schools. they have grants that they give to the schools based upon the number of athletic competitions that they have. so they are supporting the general athletic enterprise in college sports. they also have the administrative expenses. so probably somewhere in the order of $100 million is for

legal expenses and administrative expenses and organizational expenses within the ncaa. >> i would assume for some of the smaller schools especially, the better you do in this tournament, the better the profile you would achieve and therefore it allows you to do alumni fundraising, outside fundraising in addition to the money that you get from the ncaa? >> so here -- more or less, here's how it works. the ncaa gives roughly $260,000 for each game that you win in the tournament. you get that not only this year but you get it in five subsequent years. each game ends up being worth somewhere in the neighborhood of $1.5 million or a little bit more and we're talking about the men's tournament, by the way. there's a women's tournament going on and they don't distribute anything if they win their game. so over a period of six years, it could be worth 1.5 billion.

that goes to the conference, not the school directly. the conference -- correct. the conference then generally what most conferences do is pay the school for the expenses that they had to be at the tournament and then they take the rest of it and distribute it equally to all of the members. now, in terms of -- yes? >> i'm sorry. we have to leave it there. this is a fascinating conversation. so if little hampton beats my virginia on thursday night, they are going to get 260 grand for their conference for the next five years. >> there you go. >> andrew, thank you. >> don't give them any money. >> that does it for us for "nightly business report." i'm sue herera. >> and i'm tyler mathisen. thanks for watching. we'll see you back here tonight. ♪

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