this is "nightly business report" with tyler mathisen and sue herera. caught off guard. investors were reminded this week that things may not be what they seem, and you need to pay attention. sticker shock. why consumers on the health exchanges could be in for a big expensive surprise. recipe for success. one entrepreneur's old-fashioned strategy that helped him build his business and make millions. all this tonight on friday night the "nightly business report" for friday, may 20th. good evening, everyone. stocks finished on an up note ending several weeks of declines. today's gains were modest and largely lacked a specific catalyst, but gains they were. here are the numbers. for the day, the dow jones

industrial average rose 65 points to 17,500. nasdaq jumped 57, and the s&p 500 was up 12. for the week, the dow was the outlier. down fractionally and posting its four-week losing streak since 2014, its first one. nasdaq did just the opposite, snapping its own four-week losing streak and scoring the biggest weekly index gains. and the s&p 500 broke its own skid, up after three weeks of losses. all in all, it was an eventful week, chock a block with reminders for investors as we turn toward summer. reminder number one. the fed matters, and it may raise interest rates this summer. the minutes from the april meeting released wednesday all but said so. not a promise, but lots of hints. and it wasn't just hints in the minutes. it was fedspeak. listen to bill dudley of the new york fed. >> the economy looks like it's

growing above trend and inflation is stabling, the labor market is tightening. >> all that chatter caused fed fund futures to bet on federal bank policy to spike. they now price in a 30% chance of a rate hike in june, up from just 4% last week. reminder number two. consumers are spending, but spending selectively. cars are hot. so are home improvement outlays. discounters are doing okay. even walmart is humming for a change. but roaring is what amazon and other online retailers are doing, and that spells trouble for old line department stores like macy's and nordstrom. their numbers were shabby, not chic. >> we're certainly going to see half of the business go online over the next 13, 14 years. if i'm right about that and it's going to go up from the 7.5% to 10% penetration now, there's going to be a lot of stores have

to go away. >> one thing that isn't going away, we found this week, is the presidential race. that's reminder number three. and it's a tightening race, by the way, one that will surely hang over the markets between now and november. trump is a presump. so is hillary. but she hasn't closed the deal just yet. and two polls this week show trump leading clinton among likely voters in november. he's closing the gap in two other surveys. investors, get ready for an interestin rod smith joins us now to talk more about the markets. good to see you again, rod. welcome back. >> yes, thank you. nice to be here. >> let's start, first of all, with reminder number one, which is the fed, the federal reserve. as tyler pointed out in that piece, the fed matters. what did you glean from the minutes this week about what we should expect from the fed. >> i gleaned two things.

the first one is they are acknowledging, which i think is fair, that the u.s.'s economy continues to chug a log and create jobs. the second thing they're acknowledging is if they're going to do anything this year, it need s to be in june. september is way too close to the elections. and i think the third thing is, and this is where the market's got it wrong, the fed itself doesn't know itself what it's going to do in june. the fed is due ta-dependent, but not just u.s. data-dependent but globally data-dependent, and i think they've come to an important understanding with china, which, after currency pegged to the dollar. while you might get one rate hike, which i think is unlikely, you're not going to get significant rate hikes. >> can i make money in the stockmarket this summer, and if so how and where. >> yes, you can, tyler. not only you but all of your

viewers, i believe. but you have to be, you know, realistic about your expectations if you're looking at the u.s. stockmarket especially and if you're looking at, you know, the overall averages because earnings growth is not going to be that strong and as you guys mentioned, it's an election year. but as long as the economy continues to grind higher, the stockmarket's going to do the same. interestingly, though, we've got a new bull market emerging in something that's been a bear market for years and that's energies and utility stocks. that's where i would be putting money at the margin to make money. >> you know, rod, as we look at what's going on in the economy, though, we're also seeing some very interesting shifts. the consumers spending but not in the same places and retail struggling. where do you see strength in the economy and is it enough strength to keep the economy and the markets moving forward? >> well, i think it's -- here we are three baby boomers talking about the new economy, but my

guess is that your home is the same as mine and that the fedex and ups person turns up now three day as week whereas five years ago they barely showed up at all. i think as your earlier guest talked about, that is not going to change. i think retail and dynamics always changes, i think that's a big one. as far as the overall economy, people keep predicting its demise but there's something wonderful about a slow economy. >> hue did you know the fedex guy shows up tall time? how did you know that? right you are. rod, we'll leave it there. rod, thank you so much. what will it take for the federal reserve to raise interest rates this summer? central bankers may say one thing. the markets another when it comes to one important part of the economy. steve liesman explains why. >> investors were caught by surprise this week by increasing talk from the fed of a possible

june rate hike. one reason for the surprise? the april jobs report had been weakened and wouldn't seem to be enough to justify a hike. but the fed, they had a different take. payroll gains of $160,000 were just fine for them. that's because fed officials appear to have a lo eer standard for job growth than the market. for the markets 200,000 has become the mark of a healthy payroll report. for the fed it may be as low as half of that. >> the kind of growth that we'd be expecting would be 80 to 100,000 jobs per month. so while 160,000 is not as good as what we were seeing in the first three month os testify year, it is probably good enough to continue to get labor markets to tighten up a little bit more to get a little bit closer to my own viewable employment. >> what the fed looks at is the level of job growth needed to take care of the increase in the work force. in other words, what keeps the unemployment rate roughly unchanged around 5% or lowers it just a bit? with immigration down and baby boomers retiring, the economy's got less job growth than it used

to. fed chair janet yellen has put the number just around under 100. another says it's lower than 0,000. all of that asks the question. what happens when the jobs report comes out two weeks from now? it could still hike. >> if we've got a 160,000 number for example the market may view that as a disappointment where many with the fed may view that as well in excess of what is sustainable on the long-run basis. i think right now there's a gap between what the market and the fed think are good jobs numbers. >> the best bet for investors is? hope for a lot of job growth. that's good for profits and the economy. but be prepared. what's disappointing for markets could be just fine for feds that have lower standards. for "nightly business report," i'm steve liesman. now for housing. sales roast 1.7% in april. that was the seventh straight month. it's dri mostly by the

midwest which is the region considered the most affordable. it appears a bank in ecuador was the victim of a cyber attack similar to the ones that hit bangladesh and vietnam. it ended with thieves transfer 1g $2 million to accounts around the world. the discovery comes one week after s.w.i.f.t., the global bank system that was breached told its clients to secure their local computer networks. but it's not just the global banking network that's vulnerable. your bank account is as well. there's new malware that infects your computer and sits like a serpent waiting to strike. and as reported you can't just rely on your bank's internet security measures anymore. >> you are a target all the time. >> reporter: when one of the top security advisers at ibm has a warning, you might want to listen. >> when we first saw it, we were looking at, wait, something bad is happening here, we've never seen it before.

>> reporter: his team discovered the new malware. he said it's already hit banks in the u.s., canada, and europe. >> it's hard for anti-virus software and others to detect it. >> reporter: that's because it's a highly sew fophisticated combination of two tools. spy ware and a tool that secretly waits to steal your information. >> it stays dormant until you to a financial website of interest and only then does it pop up. >> like your username and password from bank accounts and more. >> the criminal is sitting on the other end obtaining that information in realtime and using that to log onto your account. >> how much do we think could be at risk? >> we already know of $4 million that were stole bin this malware. the potential is much bigger. >> reporter: the hackers behind it even leaving top researchers bewildered. >> we're up against professionals and we believe they're located somewhere in eastern europe. >> reporter: according to him, the malware typically getting in

through an e-mail sending you a link and clicking that link will infect your computer. it may seem obvious but don't click on it. make sure your system is up to date and don't use the same password for every account. and those paper statements you used to get in the mail, it may not be a bad idea. they can change things on the screen. while they steal money, they can make it look like the cash is still there. we reached out to the national bankers association and they tell us the they have tools but that cyber security is a shared responsibility between consumers and banks. we also contacted the financial services information sharing and analysis center, a group set up by the industry to share threat information. they say u.s. banking trojans and malware attacks, quote, continue to be a concern that the financial services industry takes very seriously and we've alerted our nearly 7,000 institutions to these types of

threats. and how serious is this? according to him, just last year, 20 million financial records were stolen by malware. as for what's being done, according to the experts banks are working to reduce vulnerabilities and the fbi tells us that it will continue to combat cyber crimes. i'm am drea day for nish. coming up. shopping for business stocks? one financial expert says it will grow 20% within a year. something curious happened today at chicago's o'hare airport when the head of the tsa arrived, the security lines were

miraculously shorter, hmm. much shorter than the long ones that have plagued that airport all week. today the head of the agency along with illinois senator dick durbin and chicago mayor rahm emanuel promised shorter wait time. >> we had a breakdown here in chicago. that was unacceptable. the long lines and wait times caused quite a few people to miss their flights. as i said earlier this week at a previous talk, i'm very sorry for those people who did that, and we're working hard to make sure that doesn't happen again. >> the tsa administrator also acknowledged that the summer will be challenging. companies are sitting on a lot of cash, and one third of it is owned by just five u.s. companies. according to moody's, apple, microsoft, google's parent company alphabet and cisco and oracle have more than $500 billion in cash and cash equivalence. cash holdings are becoming even more concentrated as well. in 2013 those same five companies held 25% of the total.

a key part of the affordable care act may slowly be caring away. bronze plans, which tend to have the lowest preechlous of all the tiers also incur the biggest losses for insurers. so what's going to happen? some of those insurers don't want to carry them anymore and as bertha coombs reports that could have implications for those who get their health insurance on exchanges. judging from intishl 2016 rate requests, customers could be in for major sticker shock next fall and fewer lower cost options. insurers are asking for sharp price increases after seeing big losses on exchanges the last two years. in washington state the average increase request is 13.5%. in oregon, the two biggest insurers want 30% increases. in new york on average, it's 17%. and in virginia, 23%. it's said insurers are being

more cautious for 2017 because some aca reinsurance provisions for backed up losses will expire. >> the health risk on exchange has not been very good. there has been a lot of adverse selection. some of the sickest members are buying insurance, if you will, on the way to the hospital and after paying premiums only for one to three months, they then disenroll off of the exchanges, and that creates very heavy pressure and losses. >> for many insurers the biggest losses have come with the lowest cost bronze tier. virginia's blue cross said in its 2017 filing that it will stop selling bronze plans, which means that those customers would face a 70% increase next year because they'll have to shift to silver plans. the problem is that lower cost bronze plans tend to see more turnover, according to fund manager les frontlader.

>> you have them signing up when they need something and hopping off when they don't. so what you have is a bad case of adverse selection which means you're only insuring basically the sick. >> but opting out of bronze plans also carries risks. health connections is asking for 30% increase overall and its ceo told me they're considering opting out of bronze plans but he worries that will only drive away more young healthy enrollees. insurers have until late summer to submit their final plan offerings and one insurance regulator cautions there will be a lot more discussion with plans in the next few months. for "nightly business report," i'm bertha coombs. deere cut its earnings forecast for the second time in the year and that's where we begin tonight's focus. the maker of farm tractors did manage to beat estimates, but the company's ceo said the results were hurt by the global farming recession and weakness

in the equipment construction sector. it lowered its guidance for the full year but it excepts sales to fall less than previously estimated. shares fell 5.5%, $77.74. foot locker saw its revenue climb but revenue was mixed. sales failed to meet targets. the shoe retailer also reported wore than expected same store sales growth and cited lower demand in its basketball schuchat goir. foot locker sales fell more than 6% to $54.77. and campbell's soup posted revenue that missed street estimates thanks in part to a weak soup season in the u.s. challenges in itself v-8 beverages and a weather related disruption to is carrot supply, that was the problem there. profit did rise, however, and came in above target. campbell's also raised its earnings outlook for the year.

it's looking better for carrots. oil and gas producer oil surge will buy rival interoil. french energy company total will also help fund that. they'll create a gas field in papua new guinea to take advantage of that country's low cost. shares of intraoil gushed 30% higher to $43.57. oil surge trades in australia. and yahoo! could get much less for its core business than it was hoping. "the wall street journal" says bids are expected to come in the $2 billion to 3 billion dollar range. analysts had forecast between $5 billion and $8 billion. shares fell more than a percent to 36 president $50. a list of stocks that will rise at least 20% in less than a year. first time joining us on the program, michael yoshakami. this is the first time you've been on the program, ben bernanke but maybe the first time you've been in the hot

seat. let's turn up the heat, michael. disney is your first pick. why do you like it? >> good management, great brand, great digital content that's going to play around the world. it's 15% off its 52-wook high and we think the recent earning myth was really more of an anomaly than anything else. disney has many great things going for it. i think it's a great company. costco, a place i end up going to a lot. >> you do to disney too. >> i go to disney too. i go all over the place. >> i thought you were at home waiting for your fedex package. so costco is going to be the beneficiary of that dislocation you're hearing so much about in retail. the earnings problems we'll seeing for the retailers, the nordstrom's numbers, yes, amazon is going continue to grow, but there's always going to be a place for brick and mortar. i think costco has a reasonable ability to expand. great management, great brand,

incredible customer loyalty. and number three is vodafone. tell me the narrative behind it. >> vodafone is all about the wireless space and increasing traction in place like india and china and emerging markets. i know emerging markets is a scary world for folks. this is not an emerging market stock. this is a stock that pays a healthy dividend that's going to give you the tuned to participate in the wireless growth that's happening in countries such as india. that's why tim cook is there from apple. that's why vodafone is going to have a huge presence in these developing markets. >> michael, let's broaden it out a little bit. how do you feel about the market overall? what kind of a year do you think we're going to have? >> you know, i think when it's all said and done, probably a 5% to 7% year, which means it's got a ways go since it's basically at a six-week low right now. you know, i think that the economy is not great, but it's not as bad as everyone is

saying. i think that the federal reserve probably will raise interest rates maybe a quarter percent. i would be shocked if they went half a percent. if they only go a quarter percent, we're still talking about incredibly low cost financing for companies as well as individuals. we have oil companies starting to rebound a bit. so i think the outlook for equities is cautiously optimistic. i'm not one of these doom and gloom folks you hear on the radio where the whole world is going to collapse in the next three months. i just don't see it. >> let's hope it doesn't. thank you so much. always graduate great to see you. coming up, sizzling success. how one entrepreneur's strategy to keep things simple helped him win over finicky customers and helped him make his millions.

here's a look at what to watch for next week. on tuesday we get more information on the spring selling season when new home sales are out. on thursday the fda is deciding whether to approve a controversial muscular dystrophy drug and on friday fed chair janet yellen is expected to appear at a panel hosted by harvard university. that's what to watch for next week. so how do you make millions in a an industry where 60% of the businesses fail within the first year. for one restaurant chain founder, thence was literally location, location, location. he had to close three of his first steakhouse joints because of poor placement and since then he has personally and methodically skoutd every single spot. nearly 500 locations and more than a billion dollars in sales later, he's figured how to beef up business. his story in tonight's "how i

made my millions." party steaks, killer ribs, ice cold beer. it's a winning formula for texas roadhouse, the lively restaurant chain with $1.9 billion in annual sales that's been serving up food and fun for more than 20 years. >> how would you like your sirloin steak cut? >> and the man who recrated it all from scratch is tim taylor. it happen 40d years ago in his hometown of louisville, kentucky. >> that's looking good. i started working in the restaurant business in high school as a busboy, so a long time, since i was 18. >> taylor worked his way up to a waiter, a bartender, and eventually held management positions at chains like tgi fridays, ben began's and kfc. >> i learned that food quality matters. in the early days, i won't say which concepts i worked for but the food wasn't so good. >> so he began cooking up plans

for his own place. he sketched out early ideas, where else, on a cocktail in 1992 and then went looking for investors. there's a story you approached some big investors like john y. brown of kfc. >> absolutely. >> what did he tell you? >> no. i would say all told i got turned down over 100 times. i ended up getting three doctors to start me out at texas roadhouse. >> in february of 1993 taylor opened the first texas roadhouse in indiana with more following soon after. by the end of the first year texas roadhouse had served more than a quarter of a mill youngests. >> six-second read. >> six-second read, meaning you can see the establishment for six seconds. on a scouting in new york he looks for the right location with the ride ingredients for

good success. >> near the university. we're on the interstate and all the stores we would compete with are doing above the national average. >> who gives you the best inform? >> bartenders. >> they'll tell you whether the location is doing good business or not. >> if you give them a big tip. >> each feeds 5,000 to 6,000 customer as week with an average price of $15. that prices them right between applebee's and outback steakhouse. what are the details that make you different, better, more ?uccessf i would say one thing, we cut our own meat inhouse, make our own dressings from scratch, a great our own cheese. >> bringing that concept to other customers around the work has been taylor's life's work. 5,000 employees work at the restaurants worldwide and taylor has no plans to slow down. >> i think we can do 700 plus in the states. internationally, who knows.

>> interestingly taylor doesn't advertise the success of his restaurant chain. he doesn't advertise much at all. he prefers that his managers do the marketing in their own home community which allows him to spend more money on food quality and zero on advertising. >> what a character. >> don't expect to see him advertising on a super bowl. >> no. i don't think so. >> really carefully legos from mid-size towns off the beaten path, not in the major metros. >> that's fantastic. all right. that's the "nightly business report" for tonight. have a great weekend. i'm sue herera. >> and i'm tyler mathisen. have a great weekend, everybody. see you.

>> hillary clinton declared herself the democratic party nominee. where does that leave bernie sanders? donald trump talks terror threats and supreme court nominees. president obama pushes through sweeping new rules to extend overtime pay to millions more americans. i'm john harwood in for gwen ifill tonight on "washington week." >> a plane got blown out of the sky. if anybody thinks it wasn't blown out of the sky, you're 100% wrong. >> the consequences of his statements are not just offensive to people. they are potentially dangerous. >> unpredictability has become the calling card for the presumptive republican nominee. donald trump named potential supreme court choicetors reassure nervous conservatives. then he turned to hillary clinton's qualifications and bill clinton's past. all while democrats