captioning sponsored by wnet >> sreenivasan: on this edition for saturday, october 22: the candidates promote their agendas should they win the presidency; iraqi forces advance on mosul in their campaign to retake the country's second largest city from isis. and in our signature segment, a glimpse of how robots may transform america's future workforce. next on pbs newshour weekend. >> pbs newshour weekend is made possible by: bernard and irene schwartz. judy and josh weston. the cheryl and philip milstein family. the john and helen glessner family trust. supporting trustworthy journalism that informs and inspires. sue and edgar wachenheim, iii. barbara hope zuckerberg.

corporate funding is provided by mutual of america-- designing customized individual and group retirement products. that's why we are your retirement company. additional support has been provided by: and by the corporation for public broadcasting, and by contributions to your pbs station from viewers like you. thank you. from the tisch wnet studios at lincoln center in new york, hari sreenivasan. >> sreenivasan: good evening, and thanks for joining us. more than five million people have already cast ballots in the presidential race in early voting under way in 34 states. with two weeks and no debates left until election day, donald trump and hillary clinton are making their closing arguments to the rest of america's 200 million registered voters. today, in gettysburg, pennsylvania, trump laid out an agenda for his first 100 days in office should he win the race. one focus: government reform, including a hiring freeze for

most federal government jobs; banning government officials from becoming lobbyists for five years after they leave government; requiring the repeal of two government regulations for every new one imposed; and pushing a constitutional amendment for term limits for congress. >> hillary clinton is not running against me, she's running against change. >> sreenivasan: trump also said today that after the election he intends to sue the ten women who have publicly accused him of unwanted sexual advances. hillary clinton also campaigned in pennsylvania later in the day with running mate tim kaine, in pittsburgh and philadelphia. meanwhile, her husband carried her message to voters in florida. >> this election has come down to something that's way bigger than partisanship. does the economy work better when we work together, when we invest in everybody, when we grow the economy from the middle out and the bottom up? or do we want to go down to trickle-down? i think the answer is clear. >> sreenivasan: for more analysis of the presidential race, i'm joined now by newshour

weekend special correspondent jeff greenfield, who is in santa barbara, california. so, jeff, given the topsy-turvy nature of this campaign cycle and really that the news seems to be what happens off the trail not necessarily what they're doing as they campaign, are there still factors that could impact the election in the the next couple of weeks? >> there are times when we've seen late-breaking events change the outcome. i think the one regan-carter debate in 1980, which happened just a week before the election, helped turn that into a landslide. the campaign of george w. bush has always argued that they lost the popular vote because of a late-breaking story about bush's youthful drunk driving arrests that cost him, they think, a few million evangelicals. but by and large, this is the period-- debates are over-- when the race stabilizes, which is why a five-point lead with one week to go means much more than a five-point lead with a month to go. so the hope of the trump campaign is that there are these people who have not told the

pollsters they are going to vote for trump. they point to the brexit results. the problem with that is the brexit polls were actually very, very close. so while it's possible, it's also possible that, you know, women who were on the fence may have been pushed to vote for clinton by trump's various comments. but by and large, you wouldn't want to bet the farm or even the chicken coop on a sudden late shift this late in the campaign. >> sreenivasan: is there a possibility for over-confidence on the clinton side? i mean, they say "we're not taking anything for granted," but given where the majority of the polls are leaning, where the probability prediction markets and so forth, and given that really the only poll that matters is the one that happens on november 8? >> well, you know, i've never understood who is supposed to stay home if the polls show a clear lead for one candidate. is that that candidate's supporters who think, "well, why bother, we've won?" or is it the trailing candidate supporters who think it's lost, why bother?" i think you also have to account for the fact that the ground game that we saw in the obama

campaigns that is is very much in evidence in the clinton campaign, may counter that. that is, now that they believe that they have a clear lead, the clinton campaign is going all out to pull out their voters for the down-ballot races -- we're going to talk about that in a piece that will be on the air tomorrow. but it's very significant because the clinton campaign knows without the senate in the democratic hands, her role if she is elected president will be infinitely tougher. so i don't think over-confidence is going to play much of a role on november 8. >> sreenivasan: without giving too much away about your piece tomorrow, how big is that coattail effect? i can give you a definitive answer-- sometimes it is, sometimes it isn't. when lyndon johnson won a landslide in 1964, he brought tons of democrats in on down ballots. regan did the the same thing in 1980. he helped get the g.o.p. control of the senate. when nixon won a historic landslide in '72, it had no

impact. and my guess or theory if i want to fancy it up, when an election is ideological it can have serious coattail effects because voters are saying we want a change in direction. i believe if clinton wins it is largely a repudiation of trump, rather than some commitment to her agenda. but as i said, the other thing that we know-- and we'll talk about this tomorrow-- is people split their tickets les. so a huge win for clinton is likely it to have a significant impact, particularly in that senate race and maybe even in the house as well. >> sreenivasan: is there going to be an event, at least up to this point, that helped define the race, whether it's debate performances or it's the leaked video of donald trump's comments or the paper cut after paper cut of roger wicker e-mails being released week after week? >> the theory among academics is campaign events don't have a kind of hugely consequential event. this year looks like it may challenge that conventional wisdom because the first debate really seems to have been the

turning point. trump had closed to within a point or two in virtually every poll, and once that first debate ended, clinton's lead began to grow, and it has still grown and now stabilized up to this point. remember, the fundamentals, the economic data and stuff, predicted a close race. so this may be a case where an event actually had an impact. one quick footnote-- the economic fundamentals, barack obama's approval ratings have all moved in a direction in the last month or two that helps the democrats. but i still think we're going to look back at at that first debate as a critical factor. >> sreenivasan: jeff greenfield, many things. >> pleasure. >> sreenivasan: u.s. defense secretary ash carter arrived in baghdad today to assess the progress of the iraqi government offensive to retake mosul from islamic state militants. carter spoke with iraqi prime minister haider al-abadi and u.s. commanders, but al-abadi turned down carter's request to

let coalition partner turkey take part in the offensive. turkish troops in northern iraq have been training kurdish and sunni muslim fighters, but the shiite-led iraqi government wants them out. iraqi and kurdish officials said today their forces have advanced to within three miles of mosul. isis has been occupying the country's second largest city for the past two years. 100 miles away, in the oil-rich city of kirkuk, iraqi officials say their troops have repelled isis militants who killed at least 80 people in an attack yesterday to retaliate for the mosul offensive. air strikes by russian or syrian warplanes on the divided city of aleppo in northern syria resumed today after only a two-day pause in fighting. that's according to the syrian observatory for human rights. in a unilateral cease-fire, russia and the syrian government had not carried out any attacks on the rebel-held eastern half of the city. during that time, few residents chose to leave through so-called safety corridors, and the united nations says aid deliveries and evacuations of wounded civilians did not happen. a new u.n. security council

report blames syrian forces for a chlorine gas attack on civilians in the idlib region of syria last year. the u.n. investigative team earlier found syrian forces responsible for two other chemical weapons attacks in idlib. >> sreenivasan: facing the reality of increased automation in the workplace, a majority of americans now believe robots and computers will take over much of the work done by people in the coming decades. for example, that driverless vehicles will replace truck drivers or that robots will replace even more factory workers than they already have. while this issue isn't getting much attention here this election season, overseas, in south korea, there is more reflection on the profound impact robots are already having on the economy. in tonight's signature segment, newshour weekend correspondent karla murthy reports from south korea. >> reporter: hyundai means" modernity," and it's is a big

name in the south korean economic landscape, and not only for cars. headquartered in the industrialized port city of ulsan, hyundai heavy industries, or h.h.i., is the world's largest shipbuilder. it produces engines and construction equipment. h.h.i. is also a leader in making industrial robots. hyun-kyu lim is a head researcher at h.h.i.'s robot research institute. this is where they test robots used to assemble cars. he showed me an example of what robot technology looked like ten years ago. >> it shakes a lot. >> reporter: that shake when the robot stops slowed down productivity and accuracy. >> now, i'll switch to the robot controller that is used these days. there's no vibration. >> reporter: lim says today's robots are much more precise and 40% faster. he says spot welding, which is a common process in car factories, takes just under one second with

a robot. >> if human do that, it's impossible. >> reporter: lim says that improved speed has resulted in h.h.i. selling ten times more robots than it did when lim began working here in 2000. >> so, in the future, there are only robots in the factory, and there's no... nothing. >> reporter: industrial robots have been working in manufacturing since the 1960s when the first robot joined the assembly line at general motors plant. but in recent years, there's been a dramatic rise in their use. along with new technological advances, robots have also been getting cheaper. according to the international federation of robotics, sales of industrial robots globally went up 59% between 2010 and 2015. dae-young kim is vice president of h.h.i.'s research center. he says the company has integrated four robot systems into its shipbuilding process, like this one that grinds an oil

groove inside engine cylinders, a task once done manually. >> we improved the productivity about 170%. >> reporter: wow. in manufacturing, south korea has the highest ratio of robots to workers in the world. but as robots become faster and more cost effective, kim says, h.h.i. will need to reduce its low-skilled jobs in order to remain competitive. >> if want to survive in the shipbuilding industry, i think our competitor is china, india, vietnam, where there is low labor cost. i believe we should decrease labor costs about 20% lower. >> a lot of east asian countries, i think, are in bulls-eye of automation. >> reporter: erik brynjolfsson is a professor at the massachusetts institute of technology and director of m.i.t.'s initiative on the digital economy. >> if you go to a place like china or vietnam, you see factories where there are

thousands of people working side by side doing very routine work, very simple tasks. those are exactly the kinds of tasks that robots can do well. so, the ones that are being invented in south korea and around the world, those machines are getting cheaper and cheaper and more and more capable, and increasingly are going to replace the kind of human labor that has been powering the chinese industrial revival. >> reporter: this year in china, foxconn, a manufacturer that assembles apple iphones and other electronics, replaced 60,000 factory workers with robots. in the u.s., amazon bought the robotics company kiva for $775 million in 2012 and now has over 30,000 robots working in its fulfillment warehouses around the world. to sharpen south korea's competitive edge, the government and hyundai motor group are investing $76 million to build a smart factory complex, to digitize the manufacturing process from design to distribution.

samsung is also partnering with the government to build 600 smart factories across the country. >> there is a worry among the workers that automated machines will eventually replace them and take their jobs. >> reporter: the constituents of national assemblyman jonghoon kim live and work in ulsan, where h.h.i. is based. >> if we only take the interest of companies into consideration, the life of the workers will decrease. this action will make the workers concerned for their future and their job security. this can develop into many different social problems. >> reporter: has there been any initiative yet to figure out what to do with the workers that could potentially lose their jobs? >> there have not been any specific plans made to address this issue. in order to achieve a bright future, the government, the company and the workers must all work and deliberate together. >> reporter: but with no one

adequately addressing this issue, assemblyman kim fears more workers displaced by robots are bound to find themselves unable to support themselves and their families in the future. americans could also face similar problems. a report this year by the consulting firm mckinsey and company found that 59% of manufacturing work could be automated in the next decade, including 90% of what welders, cutters and solderers do. and that's not all. 73% of food service work could be automated, 53% of retail work and 43% of finance and insurance work. >> to me, this is the defining issue of the next decade. it's the most important single thing that our country can focus on, is how we can use this amazing, powerful technologies to transform the economy for good and to create shared prosperity. >> reporter: brynjolfsson says almost every profession will be affected by automation. he says the u.s. is on the precipice of what he and the co- author of his last book call" the second machine age." >> we think this is a

transformation on the scale and scope of the first industrial revolution. it's probably going to play out over a period of decades, and we're still in the early stages of it. but as it plays out, we're going to see vastly more wealth but also vast social disruption. >> reporter: so, how can we as a society prepare for this massive transformation? >> the first step is to recognize the scope of this disruption that's coming towards us and just acknowledge it. in the first machine age and industrial revolution, pollution went up. we had problems like child labor. but as a society, we responded. we invented mass public education, and that was a radical notion that the government would pay for that. we changed the way we did tax policy. we invented the social security system. later, we provided medicare and medicaid. all of these changes helped cushion some of the blows of the industrial revolution and helped create a more healthy and educated work force than we had. >> reporter: and that's what we need to do now? >> well, going forward, we need to have similarly big changes. now, we can't just double down on the same thing we did before. it means inventing social

programs for the 21st century and new tax policy. but, in terms of the scale and scope of the changes, yes, i would say they're at least as big as what we did in the first industrial revolution. >> reporter: brynjolfsson recommends government policies that encourage more entrepreneurship by taking away barriers that make it hard to start new businesses and reward companies through tax incentives to create more jobs for people, not robots. but how realistic is it to enact some of these policies? >> these policies are absolutely necessary, and i think it's very realistic to put them in place. economists, policy makers, managers, entrepreneurs, we need to do our part to reinvent the economy. if we don't do it right, a lot of people are going to be left behind. >> reporter: in south korea, the robots of hyundai heavy industries are now making their way into the medical field, from helping nurses move patients to assisting doctors with surgeries. this rehabilitation robot reduces the number of physical therapists needed to help a patient walk.

and facing increasing global competition in their biggest industry, shipbuilding, dae- young kim says their next generation of robots will be more human-like by using artificial intelligence to learn on the job. how long do you think would develop something like that? >> maybe before 2020 to survive in this very powerful shipbuilding industry, i think. >> sreenivasan: find out why airbnb is suing the state of new york over a law that imposes fines for breaking local housing regulations. read more at www.pbs.org/newshour. >> sreenivasan: the united nations' human rights council in geneva voted yesterday to start a formal inquiry into the syrian government's bombardment of aleppo, with the u.n.'s top envoy to syria saying the military strikes on the city, aided by russia, may amount to war crimes. the probe could eventually lead to a trial before the international criminal court, which was established in 2002 to investigate and prosecute wartime atrocities. however, the court received a

vote of no confidence yesterday when south africa announced it will withdraw from the court's oversight. it's the second nation to do so-- the other is burundi-- and it is unclear how many countries might follow their lead. the court has 124 member nations, including 34 in africa, joining me now to discuss south africa's move and how damaging it might be is andrew meldrum, the acting africa editor for the associated press. he's in johannesburg, south africa. thanks for joining us. why did south africa take this step? >> south africa made the decision to leave the international criminal court because it did not like the court's decision that south africa should hav should have ae sudanese president, omar al-bashir, when when he visited south africa more than a year ago. and south africa said the court should not be telling it to arrest sitting heads of state.

there should have been diplomatic immunity. so they said they don't like that-- what they called interference-- from the i.c.c. >> sreenivasan: coming on the heels of the withdrawal from burundi, is this part of a larger trend? >> well, that-- there are many that are worried tathis-- that the two-- that the decision of the two african countries to leave the i.c.c. this week could set off a movement where several other african countries withdraw from the i.c.c. already, the african union, which represents all 54 countries of africa, has said that they don't think that the i.c.c. should press charges against any sitting head of state. and uganda's deputy foreign minister has said that he would like to see this issue of african members being in the i.c.c. be brought up at the next african union meeting. >> sreenivasan: why is this

happening among african nations and not everywhere else? do do they feel disproportionately prosecuted? >> that is the complaint, in fact. all six current prosecutions or prosecutions in the process are of africans, and so far, the i.c.c. has not indicted or pressed charges against any other people from any other part world. they do have the-- the i.c.c. does have investigations pending against leaders of colombia and afghanistan, but so far, no charges have been pressed. and so african leaders have said-- they've complained for a couple of years now or more, that it's only africans that the i.c.c. is pressing charges against, and they think that that is unfair. >> sreenivasan: and now, to be clear, the united states is a signatory, but it has not ratified. it is not an active member of the i.c.c. so if these nations start to

withdraw, what happens to the overall weight that the i.c.c. carries? >> i think that it could tremendously weaken. there are many human rights activists and others, legal, international law experts who say this could seriously weaken the i.c.c. as you say, the united states is not a full member. there are other countries that are not full members. russia and chine xaisrael are amongst the others. and the i.c.c. is at a point where it wants to increase its membership to get all members in the world, all countries in the world to sign. and at this point, now, it is backtracking or it is losing members. and it is losing members from africa which is an important sign of its legitimacy throughout the world. so it could be a really significant blow to the i.c.c. >> sreenivasan: all right, andrew meldrum of the associated

press joining us from johannesburg tonight, thanks so much. >> thank you. >> this is pbs newshour weekend, saturday. >> sreenivasan: the death toll in the derailment of a crowded passenger train in the central african country of cameroon rose today to at least 73, with 600 other passengers injured. the accident happened yesterday on cameroon's main rail line connecting the capital and a major port city. officials say the train was carrying 1,300 passengers-- twice its normal capacity-- when some of the carriages overturned. the cause of the derailment is still under investigation. pennsylvania governor tom wolf has ordered the national guard to help recovery efforts after seven inches of rain fell in the central and western parts of the state yesterday. the storm has caused massive flooding, damaged hundreds of homes and killed one person. officials say water supplies have not been compromised by the rupture of a gasoline pipeline near harrisburg that dumped 55,000 gallons of gasoline into a river. the same storm brought

widespread flooding to new england. two white minneapolis police officers involved in a fatal shooting last november of a 24- year-old black man, jamar clark, will not face any disciplinary measures. minneapolis' police chief and mayor announced yesterday the use of deadly force was warranted because clark had tried to grab one of the officer's guns during a street confrontation that was videotaped. that's also why state and federal prosecutors earlier this year declined to bring criminal charges against the officers. clark's family says it plans to file a civil lawsuit. the f.b.i. and u.s. department of homeland security haven't named any suspects in the cyber attacks that froze or slowed down web sites across the u.s. and europe yesterday. but a group called new world hackers claimed responsibility. the security firm flashpoint says the hackers may have exploited internet-connected devices like webcams and dvrs to launch the attack. twitter, paypal, amazon, netflix and spotify are among the

companies affected. >> sreenivasan: finally, a megamerger in the business world. telecom giant at&t has agreed to buy media giant time warner, according to the "wall street journal" and other published reports. the deal, valued at $86 billion, would give at&t control of several high-profile media assets including hbo, cnn, and the warner brothers movie studio. the deal is expected to be announced by both companies' board of directors as early as tonight. it would be subject to approval by u.s. antitrust regulators. tomorrow on the broadcast are the pivotal u.s. senate race in pennsylvania. that's all for this edition of "pbs newshour weekend." i'm hari sreenivasan. have a good night. captioning sponsored by wnet captioned by media access group at wgbh access.wgbh.org >> pbs newshour weekend is made

possible by: bernard and irene schwartz. judy and josh weston. the cheryl and philip milstein family. the john and helen glessner family trust. supporting trustworthy journalism that informs and inspires. sue and edgar wachenheim, iii. barbara hope zuckerberg. corporate funding is provided by mutual of america-- designing customized individual and group retirement products. that's why we are your retirement company. additional support has been provided by: and by the corporation for public broadcasting, and by contributions to your pbs station from viewers like you. thank you.

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