captioning sponsored by wnet >> stewart: on this edition for saturday, november 12: looking ahead to the top priorities of a trump administration, and predicting the outcome of the election without polls; also, the latest from iraq in the battle for mosul. next on pbs newshour weekend. >> pbs newshour weekend is made possible by: bernard and irene schwartz. judy and josh weston. the cheryl and philip milstein family. the john and helen glessner family trust-- supporting trustworthy journalism that informs and inspires. sue and edgar wachenheim, iii. barbara hope zuckerberg. corporate funding is provided by mutual of america--

designing customized individual and group retirement products. that's why we're your retirement company. additional support has been provided by: and by the corporation for public broadcasting, and by contributions to your pbs station from viewers like you. thank you. from the tisch wnet studios at lincoln center in new york, this is pbs newshour weekend. >> stewart: good evening, and thanks for joining us. protests against president-elect donald trump are continuing in cities across the country this weekend. today in new york, chicago and los angeles, demonstrators took to the streets to protest the results of tuesday's election. in manhattan, thousands marched two miles from downtown's union square past trump's residence in trump tower on fifth avenue. further demonstrations are planned tonight. last night, thousands marched in new york, l.a. and other cities for a third night in a row. protests were also staged in cities in states carried by trump, including in atlanta, dallas, raleigh, iowa city and kansas city, missouri.

in portland, oregon, police used tear gas to disperse the crowd after police say burning projectiles were thrown at them. the protesters also sprayed graffiti on buildings and blocked traffic. in miami, florida, protesters blocked portions of interstate 395, forcing hundreds of cars to stop. demonstrations are also occurring overseas. today in germany, about 300 people protested trump's election outside the u.s. embassy in berlin. in his first interview since winning the election, trump tells cbs news' "60 minutes" he no longer intends to fully repeal president obama's signature legislation, the affordable care act. trump says he likes obamacare's rules banning insurance companies from denying coverage over preexisting conditions and letting parents cover their children until they turn 26. >> when you replace it, are you going to make sure that people with preconditions are still covered? >> yes, because it happens to be one of the strongest assets. >> you're going to keep it? >> also, with the children living with their parents for an extended period, we're going to...

>> you're going to keep that? >> ...very much try and keep that. it adds cost, but it's very much something we're going to try and keep. >> stewart: today, in a conference call with campaign contributors, hillary clinton said she was "heartbroken" by the loss and pointed to f.b.i. director james comey in the campaign's final days, resuming the investigation into her private email server she used while secretary of state. clinton reportedly said: today, there was a reminder that the next administration will be managing the deployment of u.s. troops in afghanistan, now entering its 16th year. a suicide bombing inside the largest u.s. base there, the tightly-guarded bagram air base north of kabul, killed four americans, two soldiers and two civilian contractors working for the military. defense secretary ash carter says he is "deeply saddened" by

the attack that also wounded 16 american soldiers and one polish soldier. an afghan official said the attacker dressed as a laborer e taliban claimede the base. responsibility for the attack. it is leading an insurgency against the u.s.-backed government. the u.s. still has more than 8,000 soldiers in afghanistan. cincinnati's mayor is calling on prosecutors to seek a new trial over a police shooting, captured on videotape, of an unarmed black motorist last year. today, a judge declared a mistrial in the murder trial of ray tensing, the 26-year-old white former university of cincinnati police officer who fatally shot 43-year-old sam dubose after stopping him for a missing license plate. the incident was documented by tensing's body camera. he testified he had feared for his life and thought dubose was going to run him over when his arm became stuck in dubose's car door as the officer tried to grab the car keys. today, the jury deadlocked after 25 hours of deliberations since getting the case wednesday. prosecutors say the jury was leaning toward an acquittal for

murder and a conviction for the lesser charge of voluntary manslaughter. the judge scheduled a hearing in two weeks to determine if tensing will be retried. india's prime minister, narendra modi, today defended his surprise announcement this week to replace some currency denominations as a necessary move to fight corruption and tax evasion, but the move has set off pandemonium at banks and a.t.m. machines across the country. millions of people have waited in lines to exchange their now worthless 500 and 1,000 rupee bills-- bills worth around $7.50 to $15 u.s.-- for new currency. some banks ran out of the new 2,000 rupee bills, and half of india's 200,000 a.t.m. machines have not yet been reconfigured to dispense them. the government said it will take two to three weeks to reconfigure the a.t.m.s. for the third weekend in a row, protesters in south korea have filled the streets of seoul to demand the resignation of president park geun-hye. tonight's candlelight protest was the largest yet with organizers claiming a million

people; police estimated the crowd to be a quarter that size. president park has apologized for seeking the advice of a longtime friend who stands accused of fraud and abuse of power for allegedly using her connections with park to pressure corporations to donate money to her foundations. so far, there's been no move in south korea's parliament to impeach park. >> stewart: donald trump has signaled that high on his domestic agenda is attending to the nation's infrastructure, which he addressed in his election night victory speech. >> we are going to fix our inner cities and rebuild our highways, bridges, tunnels, airports, schools, hospitals. we're going to rebuild our infrastructure, which will become, by the way, second to none. and we will put millions of our

people to work as we rebuild it. >> stewart: two weeks earlier, outlining his "contract with the american voter," trump put a price tag on his plan. >> the american infrastructure act leverages public-private partnerships and private investments through tax incentives to spare $1 trillion in infrastructure investment over the next ten years. >> stewart: the american society of civil engineers, in its last report card, graded the country's infrastructure a "d- plus" and estimated $3.5 trillion in spending is needed to fix it. when it comes to jobs, trump has promised to create 25 million of them through infrastructure spending, tax reduction and simplification, regulatory relief, trade deal reform and lifting the restrictions on american energy development. joining me now to discuss trump's infrastructure and jobs plans are: laura bliss, a writer for citylab, which is part of atlantic media here in new york; and in washington, binyamin appelbaum, a correspondent for the "new york times." laura, the american society for civil engineers gave the u.s.

infrastructure a d-plus rating. why does it deserve a d-plus rating? how did we get to a d-plus rating? >> yeah, it's a great question, and i think most americans actually have pretty firsthand experience just driving on highways and losing time and money and productivity, facing roads that have really been not adequately maintained. and what we're look at, according to the american society of civil engineers, is actually something to the tune upon a $3 trillion infrastructure spending gap. so that's, you know, the difference between what we are spending and what we're not to keep our roads, as well as our bridges, our airports, our transit system, our ports, really functioning and serving the american public. >> stewart: what's an example of recent of recent d-plus fail in infrastructure? >> yeah, absolutely, not even two months another very close to here in new york, new jersey transit. we saw that fatal train crash, and that was partly driven by a failure to keep that system up

to date as far as its safety mechanisms. of course, very memorably in flint, michigan, earlier this year, we saw the failure of a water system to be really adequately maintained. >> stewart: binyamin, has trump signaled what this infrastructure plan, what he's talked about, what it might look like? >> so he has suggested that the portion of the infrastructure plan focused on transportationing would be about $550 billion. and his economic varies, peter navaro, has sketched out a way it might be paid for. he suggested what we would be talking about is a tax credit that would incentivize private developers to put their own money into public infrastructure in return they pay not very much at all in taxes on those investments and the government could recoup some of that lost money by imposing a one-time tax on the repatriation of profits that american companies have been keeping stashed overseas.

>> stewart: trump finds himself in a unique position. the republican spaert not always that excited about spending money on things like infrastructure, whereas the democratic party often is. what kind of political mawferg maneuvering is he going to need to do to fet this off the ground? the of? the landscape is interesting. pretty much everyone agrees the infrastructure is crumbling. where it breaks down is when it comes to talk about who is going to pay for it. republicans have been reluctant to invest funds in these types of projects. president obama proposed something similar to what donald trump sproapsing and congressional republicans refused to take it up as an idea. the hope for mr. trump is this alternative financing model will be attractive to republicans. but the sticking point for many republicans is that they don't accept his argument that this is good for the economy. >> stewart: laura, from your rps, what kind of private-funded infrastructure has worked or hasn't worked? >> privatization of frurpt projects is not an inherently

bad idea, and it can work, you know, especially on a project like a toll road, for example, where a private company is sort of guaranteed revenues down the line after the project is completed. but as a funding mechanism for the vast majority of infrastructure projects that our country could really benefit from, it doesn't really seem to hold up because they're not going to be particularly lucrative in the long run for those private companies. they're really designed-- supposed to be designed for the public good, and not to-- not to force the public to pay very, very high usage rates. >> stewart: binyamin, trump said that he's tied his job creation to this infrastructure idea. does that work? does that make sense with what he's proposed? >> it really depends on the details. so, you know, interestingly enough, from the perspective of many democrats, the extent to

which the government provides funding for these projects is an important consideration because in their view, the types of projects that are most likely to be built with government funding are the ones least likely to be built by the private sector and, therefore, the most likely to create new jobs. if you're simply providing a tax subsidy so companies can build things they were already going to build and it's just more profitable for them to do so, you don't create a lot of jobs by to go that. you just put money in the pocket of people who own those companies. if, however, what you're doing is providing funding for projects that wouldn't otherwise get off the job, that has the potential to actually create new jobs. the question of the funding model isn't just a question of who pays for it but a question of how much economic boston there's likely to be. >> stewart: binyamin, will politics play a role here as to which infrastructure projects get started first? >> yeah, i think it's fair to say that politics will play a role here, absolutely. the details, again, matter. if what he's proposing is a tax credit that anyone can take advantage of, the government

would have somewhat less of a role in selecting projects. developers would have to line up and meet the requirements for the tax credit. but, again, to the extent that the government starts allocating the funds, yeah, congress has a long history of picking out pet transportation prohibits for funding. it's a fair bet that that would happen again. >> stewart: laura, we should point out that voters seem to be hungry for increased fund ago at least increased support of infrastructure. on many local initiative ballots, there was a great show of support for this, correct? >> yeah. at least certain types of infrastructure. sort of-- i think a story that was definitely overshadowed on tuesday night was a real victory in the public transportation sector, something like 70% of the ballot measures nationwide that were about funding transit got passed. so, yeah, you did sort of see this story of voters, primarily in dense, urban centers, really, you know, voting for a more urban future and, you know,

demonstrating a willingness to pay for it. in terms of investment and transit. less so, you know, there was-- there were a number of measures that were also, you know, geared towards highway fund, other kinds of transportation projects, lesso about water infrastructure, energy infrastructure, yo, you know, p, airports. those were a little bit lesser seen. >> stewart: binyamin, you wanted to add something? >> yeah, you know, the support for the transit measures that laura was just talking about came mostly from parts of the country that also supported hillary clinton. one issue donald trump is going to need to dpraem with is house republicans largely represent parts of the country that have less infrastructure and are perhaps less excited about increased infrastructure spending. it's not clear that he can rally a majority of the house right now to back a rebuilding of laguardia airport, for example. they may not care how bad conditions are in new york. >> stewart: all right, this is to be continued. it sounds like. laura bliss from "citylab," and

binyamin appelbaum from the "new york times," thanks to both of you. >> thanks so much for having us. >> stewart: iraq's government says its security forces, with u.s. support, reclaimed two more districts in mosul today from isis militants. this footage released today by the iraqi defense ministry shows helicopter attacks on isis positions to dislodge militants who have occupied iraq's second largest city for two years. the defense ministry says it has destroyed more than 40 isis hideouts and killed about 900 militants in the past month. as thousands of mosul residents try to flee the city, the united nations reports isis is carrying out mass executions of civilians. joining me now to talk about this is alex milutinovic, who is directing relief efforts in iraq for the international rescue committee. he is in the iraqi city of erbil, about 50 miles east of mosul. alex, we understand from the

world health organization, people have fled mosul. where are they going? >> at the moment they have over 50,000 people that have fled the surrounding mosul sea. two-thirds are leaving towards the camps and the remaining are living with host community gllz is the islamic state allowing people to leave? there have been reports want idea is to use civilians. their idea is to use civilians as human shields. >> unfortunately, the civilians not allowed to leave the mosul city. they are being used as a human shield and our concern goes to the people of mosul city who are now trapped in a very difficult situation. they are basically trapped in the nighting zone and they have a hard time fleeing and finding safety. >> stewart: and how are the conditions for the people who are still in mosul, the citizens, in terms of food, water, medical care? >> basically, mosul city has been under isis control control for the past two years. and during these two years, people have spent all of their savings. so the situation is getting dire. the medicines are almost not available. the food is available, but the cost is rising and we are seeing

more and more people that come out that are malnourished. it's a pretty difficult situation and we are hoping very soon we will be able to provide assist attendance everyone who flees the city gllt u.n. report that came out recently describing the situation in mosul described the possibility of chemical weapons being used? >> basically, we have seen reports before of the chemical weapons being used. it is our biggest fear. civilians basically have to be protected by all party to this conflict and we need to ensure civilian safety is the most important priority. we are concerned. we have seen civilian casualties and we want to make sure this doesn't repeat again. >> stewart: the fight over mosul is about a month old at this point. the u.n. report in the "new york times" cited reports of people being executed, civilians, and being labeled as "traitors" and being killed as a betrayal. yet focus on this betrayal? and yet public execution of citizens in mosul?

>> isis has a brutal rule. for the past two years they have been ruling with an iron fist in the mosul area, all areas under their control. we have seen a number of cases and heard about a number of cases of civilians being executed for as little as having awe mobile phone. there is a fear, most of the people in the city or some people in the city are actually cooperating with the security forces so they're using this opportunity to send a message to all the people who are trying to either organize a coup or try to provide information to the security forces that they will be killed. so our concern, again, goes for the civilian population of mosul. they're trapped right now, and the fighting is coming close. so they're seeing a lot more-- they're hearing a lot more explosions. there are a lot more activities on the outsciforts of the mosul city and the population of the city is terrified. they have been living two years under their rule and they would need a lot of assistance, weps mental health, once they are able to reach safety.

>> stewart: alex milutinovic of the international rescue committee. thank you so much for your work and for being with us. in all nine presidential elections since 1984, american university history professor allan lichtman has correctly predicted the outcome not by using opinions polls but by using a system he helped create, 13 simple true/false statements testing whether the incumbent party will retain or lose the white house. professor lichtman joins me now via skype from doha, qatar. professor, how did you arrive at these 13 true/false statements? and what is the rule that determines the outcome? >> i came across the keys to the white house totally by accident. in 1981, i met the world's leading authority in earthquake prediction. and it was he who suggested we collaborate using his

mathematical mod el modeling tot american presidential elections. so we studied every american election from 1860 to 1980. this was in 1981, guided by the thees they say presidential elections are primarily judgments on the performance and strength of the party holding the white house. and from that study, we came up with 13 simple, true/false questions, where an answer of "true" always favors the re-election of the white house party. and we came up with a really simple decision rule: if six or more of the keys are false, that bodes defeat for the party holding the white house. >> stewart: well, let's look at those first four rules, those keys, because they're basically about political climate, as you said, something that you can, you know, objectively take a look at. they were false. for the incumbent party, for the democratic party. so what were the other two that sent it over the edge for the

republicans? >> critically, the party holding the white house did not achieve major policy change in the second obama term. so they didn't have a big domestic accomplishment to run on. in addition, they didn't achieve a big flasho foreign policy success. >> stewart: your model takes into account the generic republican candidate and the generic democratic candidate, but we really didn't have a generic republican candidate this time around. so why do you think it works still? >> well, the force of history is very powerful. this is a very robust model because it goes retrospectively back to 1860 and prospectively ahead to the present. so it takes into account enormous changes in our politics. >> stewart: you've made a point of saying, "polls are not predictions." everyone this week has been talking about how wrong the polls were. you can explain that statement? >> first of all, polls are snapshots. they give you sentiment at a

particular point in time, and it does not necessarily follow that, that's going to hold at a future point in time. in addition, the polls are entirely dependent on predicting who is going to be a likely voter, and they really don't kow very well who the likely voters are. >> stewart: do your keys, or your factors, your statements, take into account october surprises at all or emotions or passions? >> i initially made my prediction for a donald trump victory in late september before the women coming out alleging sexual assault by donald trump, before the comey letter and the comey retraction. >> and doubled down on that prediction on october 28. so my predictions were not turning on these campaign events. >> stewart: professor alan lichtman, thanks so much for sharing all your information. >> my pleasure.

>> stewart: read the 13 statements that allan lichtman used to predict the outcome of the 2016 presidential election. visit www.pbs.org/newshour. >> stewart: in april, we brought you the story of sonia cacy, a 68-year-old texas woman convicted in 1993 of murdering her uncle by arson and sentenced to 99 years in prison. here's an update to her story. cacy maintained her innocence throughout her trial and conviction, even after the case's toxicologist produced evidence that her uncle had traces of gasoline on his clothes. sonja, did you have anything to do with the fire that occurred on november 10, 1991? >> no, i did not. i did not ever, anything. no. >> stewart: later evidence found that toxicologist's report was faulty and that the fire was started accidentally. cacy was released from prison on parole but was never exonerated and had to report to a parole officer once a month for 17 years.

>> it's a big burden because you can't even get a place to live. everybody does your background-- where you're living, where you're going to work. >> stewart: the innocence project of texas filed a motion to reopen cacy's case under th"" junk science law," a new law in texas that makes it possible to appeal a case if there is scientific evidence that was not available at the time of the conviction or there is new evidence that contradicts what was used to convict. >> sonia is a real, live example of somebody whose life was really destroyed based upon bad scientific testimony in court. >> stewart: last wednesday, texas' court of criminal appeals found cacy not guilty of the death of her uncle, fulfilling her dearest wish for her and her family. >> my hopes for the future are to get everything like this over with and to be exonerated before

i die. and it would be really nice for my children. . >> stewart: finally, tomorrow marks one year since a group of isis terrorists attacked paris, killing 130 people with suicide bombs and ak-47 assault rifles. many victims had been enjoying a friday night out in cafes and restaurants and 90 of them have been attending a rock concert at the bat clan concert hall. it opened tonight and rock super star sting performed in memory of those who died. this video shows today's sound check before the one-hour concert. victims' family members were offered free tickets and proceeds went to charities helping victims' family. that's all for this edition of "pbs newshour weekend." i'm alison stewart. good night. captioning sponsored by wnet captioned by media access group at wgbh access.wgbh.org >> pbs newshour weekend is made

possible by: bernard and irene schwartz. judy and josh weston. the cheryl and philip milstein family. the john and helen glessner family trust-- supporting trustworthy journalism that informs and inspires. sue and edgar wachenheim, iii. barbara hope zuckerberg. corporate funding is provided by mutual of america-- designing customized individual and group retirement products. that's why we're your retirement company. additional support has been provided by: and by the corporation for public broadcasting, and by contributions to your pbs station from viewers like you. thank you.

>> bernard: no one can stay in the military forever. we all get out one day. >> helen: then you have to figure out how to transition >> sam: i didn't know what i was gonna do. >> bernard: there's not just one cookie-cutter answer for what's the next step. >> sam: so, we're gonna be going on a road trip. >> helen: from california to washington d.c. >> bernard: interviewing veterans along the way. >> helen: gaining experience and knowledge about their transition to the civilian life. >> sam: that's the goal. finding what i wanna do next, and be passionate about it like i was passionate about the military. >> narrator #1: roadtrip nation: the next mission is made possibleby the uso transition 360 alliance, bringing together partner organizations to offer holistic support and resources to transitioning service members and their families. with an estimated 1 million service members transitioning back into civilian communities over the next five years, the uso transition 360 alliance provides the tools needed to plan for what's next.