this is "nightly business report" is tyler mathisen . >> the president leaves on a a high stake foreign policy trip one day after north korea tests a missile that could carry out a nuclear warhead into u.s. territory. the markets kept cool, but the next few days could provide stern tests. as tensions rise around the globe, why americans defense companies may with an excellent place for your capital. looking for a mortgage? why they could soon be easier to get for millions of americans. those stories and more tonight .n night ly business report for >> good evening and welcome. international tensions ran high as investors returned to the markets today after monday's

abbreviated session and yesterday's holiday. so, how would global markets react today after news yesterday of north korea's first ever successful launch of an intercontinental ballistic missile, one capable of carrying ut nuclear warhead into u.s. territory. the answer frankly is there isn'reaction stock, bond, currency and gold were largely calm today, but that could change in an instant. as the week's new us plays out. front and center, that missile launch. a test north korea's dictator said was coming and that president trump derided. it won't happen, he tweeted this year, but it tid. just as the u.s. conducts missile tests of its own with south korea. in statement today, the top u.s. military commander in south korea said the u.s. and the south are prepared to go to war with north korea if given the order.

as for efforts to enlist china to put pressure on pyongyang, they don't seem to be bearing fruit. mr. trump tweeting today, quote, trade between china and north korea grew almost 40% in the first quarter, so much for china woa so what's left to try? >> the words solution and north korea have probably never been mentioned in the same sentence before. the options are pretty poor or an ak tracktive. >> playing out as the president departed for europe in a meeting of the g-20 in hamburg, germany later this week. there, he will come face-to-face for the first time with vladimir putin. he'll also meet with ping, who met with putin in moscow monday and tuesday. the stakes could not be higher. will trump try to tie u.s. china trade to beijing's help with north korea? what about russia's role in

syria, ukraine and the u.s. elections? and then there's the delicate matter of u.s. relations with traditional european allies, like france and germany. >> got real disagreements over trade. over climate change. questions about america's willingness to stand up to russia. probably the europeans won't be them to be when it comes to north korea. plus, the personal dynamics between chancellor merkel and president trump shall we say are less than ideal. >> so far this year, markets have slugged off global worries and put geo politics in the backseat, but that could change ane backseat could become a real front seat market driver. >> while the broader markets were flat, one sector that did move today on the rising tensions with north korea was the defense sector. boeing -- and lockheed martin were all higher and they're all behind our country's military

defenses. morgan brennan has more. >> the pentagon is describing it as a new kind of missile that quote did not seen before. an intercontinental ballistic missing or icbm, tested by as america celebrated independence day. the icbm flew for 37 minutes, making it the country's longest launch before landing off the coast of japan. experts are skeptical of the north's ability to turn it into a weapon, it's a sign yet that e pentagon says it's ready especially in light of its own test that successfully intercepted a mock icbm. that is called the ground base mid core suspension. radar, sensors and rocket propelled intercepters, that can track and destroy missiles in space. the only such ground based system capable of protecting the entire u.s. from such a threat.

its effectiveness has been questioned. boeing is a prime contractor with parts made by ratheon and rocket jet, but there are others in use as well. lock he lockheed's which is largely deployed on ship. all three counterregional threats work for the boeing system as a layered defense approach. demand is growing in the expectation as lawmakers and green light war money to develop more for "nightly business report", i'm morgan brennan. >> how should investors like you factor in geo political tensions could global flash points start to infect values? here with inpsych is paul christopher. market strategist with the wells fargo investment institute. welcome. good to have you with us. >> thank you. >> why do you think global

tensions haven't affect ed the markets much over the past year nd especially not this year? england and elsewhere. this missile test yesterday. but the market seems to sort of roll merrily along. >> that's right. yeah, there's several reasons i can think of. one is frankly, we've had a synchronized recovery in place since the middle of last year and investors have just become aware of that. since late last year, call it november or december. the second is really the continued say ongoing use of stimlative monetary policies. there's just a lot of liquidity sloshing around, whether it's still in the u.s. with low interest rates and the third reason is something even more basic. with these high risk, low problem bableties or high impact low probabi ooents, there's a strong tendency to just say oh, well, that's just another

out there and people tendl to frankly underestimate. >> right, is pro one of those events or situations that they are underestimating? we had a special session of the u.n. today. and you have allies of the united states calling for basically stricter sanctions now on north korea. is that situation changing in the market times or not? >> i think it will. and it depends a lot, interestingly, i think it depends t the conversatio looks like president between xi and trump. that's going to be much more important. i think there's another risk here, that is there's b obviously extreme risk of some sort of nuclear or preemptive attack by the u.s. or by north koreas, but there's another risk

here and that is really that the u.s. and china have a bigger falling out over north korea. that puts questions on the board about trade, so, interregional cooperation. >> these are big, high concept g it back to me and my out portfolio. how can i event proof my portfolio or should i try? >> i don't think anyone can event proof a portfolio, but you can play the problem bableties the ecoc recovery will continue in a synchronized way going forward, so number one, play growth. number two, because there are so many risks out there you mentioned russia there's even u.s. political risk here. in terms of what we do with tax reform and farouk. try to inside ory to pick one inoculate your port foe owe, take a diversified approach. rebalance often and play the

growth game. y cat all the ing risks, but you won't be strung up by all the worst ones if you try to go the other way. >> thank you very much. paul christopher with wells fargo investment institute. stocks were steady today. despite the ooents overseas. technology stocks sthaped a three-day losing streak and the federal reserve released the minutes of its last meeting. more on that in a second. first, the closing numbers. dow jones industrial arc one po. nasdaq rose 40 and the s&p 500 added three. crude prices fel reports that opec's oil exports rose in june. and on a separate report that russia would not support a further extension of ongoing production cuts. >> well, the oil market will allegation be watching developments secto in a statement today, volvo said all, all of its new models it produces will be electric or hybrid starting in 2019. the ceo had made a similar statement in may.

according to reuters, the decision makes volvo the fir au date to phase out conventional car engines. volvo is owned by a chinese company. auto production is carefully watched by the manufacturing sector and today, the commerce department reported that new orders for factory goods fell .8% in may, marking the second straight month of decline. manufacturing activity accounts for more than 10% of the u.s. economy and has lost a bit of momentum as motor vehicle sales motd ratt i there a split withi the federal reserve? the minus of the last meeting point to agreement on some sishs important economy, but not on others. hampton pearson explains. >> minutes from the june fed meeting show monetary poli policymakers decided on the impact on the timing and number of future interest rate hikes. most say i fed's 2% target is a short-term

phenomenon, due in part to things like cheaper telecom e prices. but others are kconcern that ha the lack of wage inflation in a tight labor market means inflation has slowed. >> i think they're laying out the case that it may not be wholly transitory, so the fact they put those caveats in while expresdsing comfort that things will xwok bah to normalcy gives me confidence that they think thch. at that mid june meeting, several policymakers wanted to announce plans to start reducing the fed's $4 trillion portfolio of treasury bonds and mortgage-backed securities, but there was no consensus on with when to start. fed watchers however say markets are prepared and the economy is strong enough to withstand the fed's key policy moves. >> i think it's going to be modally felt initially, but long-term, ultimately, the fed is going to be the dictator of where rates go. clearly, we need good day to to

back it up. if that doesn't happen, i think rates stay up. >> so, those june minutes suggest inflation is really the exfactor for future rate as fa balance sheet, it comes down to timing, with late september the most likely kickoff. for "nightly business report," i'm hampton pearson in washington. >> coming up, why mortgage hunting is getting a >> if you were shopping for a home, you may be in luck. we toll you about some scoring scoring changes, but there are some risks as always. diana oleic explains. >> just over a decade ago, big lenders were giving big

mortgages to anyone with pauls and this is what happened. today, it's much harder to get a home loan, but that has sidelined some worthy bow rowers, so the fight is now loosensing yet again. two major changes go into effect this month. first, the nation's credit rating agencies are dropping tax liens and civil judgments from consumer's profiles. if they're not fully documented. that's because one in five consumers have mistakes on their credit reports. of about 220 million americans, with a credit profile, about 7%. without them, their fico -- the debt payments a borrower from 45% to 50% of pre-tax income. and today's high level of student loan debt. >> we're not changing the other

underwriti the additional incret of risk from making that change is very small and given how pristine credit has been post crisis, we don't feel like that's an unreasonable risk to take. >> but it means some consumers debt sf i think the main kconcern that i have is the fact ths com together. you have more stretched consumers. consumers thafd problems in the past. >> consumers who have had a lien or judgment are from two to five times likely to be late on a payment again. >> it doesn't do a consumer well to be extended credit that they can't afford or reasonably service. > but debt limits and sco consider. >> we look at all the other criteria that are information rich. in term of aeszing that individual's risk profile and

they have to look goo in those other areas. >> and the lending market isn't changing its appetite for risk and losses, so while it may loosen up in some areas, it may also tighten in others. >> while it may appear to be easier to get a mortgage due to those new credit score changes, credit card defaults are rising. even as the economy is on solid footing, so, w does this suggest about the health of consumer borrowing? craig is chief economist at vining staparks and joining us que abo what does this mean in terms of the health of the consumer? >> i think the consumer is when i we broadly, they've deleveraged quite a bit. you look at the labor market, it's healthy. and you see a little bit of earnings growth starting to pick up and so, we see consumers being fairly stable right now.

the uptick in defaults on credit cards is just fractional. first quarter reports showed an uptick to 7.4%. when you look at i over the longer period, it remains low. so, we see the consumers being healthy right now. despite the recent uptick in the credit rates. >> i think i was supposed to feel good during diana's report that mortgages may become easier to get. at the same time, i heard her say that the people who were going to get those credit reports now may be able to pay up to 50% of her pre-tax income if debt payments. that sounds very, very high to . >> remind message of the early 2000s. when we saw levels go up. it's similar to that. reminds me of that. you're right.

makes me nervous as well and remember, that's pre-t it's also preinsurance. and so, when you're talking about spending 50% of your pre-tax preinsurance income on housing, that's a concern. >> what else would be concerning to you, we started out talk iin about credit card defaults w po historically is very low. at what point would that start to worry you? zwl we saw rates jump up around 8, 9%. credit card debt is still a almost 60, 70% of it comes from mortgages. they seem to be in fairly solid position. homeowners have refinanced from 5.5% down to 3 .7% now. going back over the past seven years, so they're saving about

payments, so 40 o bil when you look at credit, we see some positive things there. trz if the other thing that's a concern, the student loan market is over 11% and that's bn the biggest area of growth for consumer debt. >> craig, thank you very much. >> thank you. >> o rile automotive posted weaker than expected sales and that's where we begin tonight's focus. the retarial said a mild winter caused spending to slow cau. o'reilly said the -- will have an impact on its operating profit bability. shares down nearly 19% at 178.77. and the disappointing results also sent shares of other

retailers down. the apartment real estate investment trust monogram residential will be bought by the largest apartment retailer, gray star. it's going to acquire monogram for about 3 billion. monogram up 21% on the news. to 11.89. goldman sachs says it sees demand plateauing for the current products that might cut its price target. citing the company's lower than expected. with a model s through 2021. tesla down. >> nvidia reached a deal, intelligence to various applications. technology in its cloud computing and in its initiative to develop self-driving cars. shares rose more than 2.5% to

143.05. buy due added 2%. and the u.s. credit card process said it reached a deal to buy british rival world pay for about $10 billion. the merger would give them access to brick and mortar and e commerce. shares fell 2% to 61.0 the. mobile payments are changing the way we buy things. peer to peer, changing the way things potentially providing a new type of growth for the world's second largest economy eunice has our story. >> far from his posh beijing office, roger is meeting some of his best clients. >> we love coming down here. alwa. >> stanford grad from south africa founding a peer to peer

lending company. the industry in china has run into financial trouble. to survive, he lent almost solely to people on the farms.i there's 1.3 billion people. we see the month for farmers. >> farmers like the food. in the village in southwest china, he used to b b a coal miner. after getting injured, he wanted to try pig farming, but didn't have the money. fz in the country side, it's hard to get money. even if i were to get a loan, it would be too small to start the business. they aroouf proved a loan of more than $11,000, but rather than hand over cash, the company

bought the pigs and feed. in one year, he expects to earn a profit of $14,500 after pay ing back the loan plus the 15.5% interest. this kind of lending may sound risky, lending to people on the farms who don't have much experience with modern finance. but in fact, they say their recovery rate is 98.5% and in a country where so mazombie compa may or bet. >> the farmers, we find them to be very honest and reliable and basic people and they are just looking improve their own lives. >> that's what's happening to the food. i wanted to have a fridge and a tv when i got married. but we didn't have the money, his wife said, now, we do. good for an economy in need of new consumers for future growth. coming up, summer stinker.

why most of the movies that were expected to be blockbusters are turning out to be busts. the -- is filing for bankruptcy production. a change in consumer taste and the shift away shopping at department stores where true religion jeans are sold. the retailer said it is aiming to stay in business, though some stores will be b closed. the july fourth holiday, usually a sizzling time of year for movie going, but not this year, not this weekend and today, movie theatre stocks traded lore. julia tells us why a summer slump appears to be b taking

hold. >> the beach and barbecues burn the box office. the holiday weekend failed to turn around a weak summer so far. the season is down to about 9% from last year, pulling the year to date u.s. box office down nearly 1% from the year earlier. according to com score. >> holy molly. >> despicable me 3 grossed $9 million, fwu $72 million over the weekend in the u.s. is is about 10 million dle lore than the open. another new release, baby driver, outperformed with a $21 million take while will poehler and amy poehler's comedy fell flat. >> right now and over the past few weeks, there's only be a hand fful of movies that have grabbedeen. >> with the exception of wonder

woman and guardians of the gal xy, every one has underperformed in north america and the trend isn't expegted to turn around soon even with films such as spider-man opening friday, mkm partners warns that given tough compare sops for july and august, the third quarter box office will likely fall about 6% and morgan stanley just slashed its target on regal on a lower foreca. but for studio, even films studying state side are outperforming overseas. >> there's something going on novelty, the bombast, the epspecially sie of these american made movies are enough to get them back in theatre. where as north american audiences seem more jaded. >> even the fifth films in rats and transformers, underperforming other sequels

here in the u.s. have had a huge run overseas. that increasingly powerful global audience is already impacting what movies hollywood makes and where they're shot. we'll see how spird man and other big films perform overseas. for "nightly business report", i'm julia boorstin in los angeles. >> and thanks for joining us. >> thanks from me as well. have a great evening, everybody. see you back here tomorrow ni

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