captioning sponsored by newshour productions, llc >> woodruff: good evening, i'm judy woodruff. on the newshour tonight: a pipe bomb explodes in a busy new york subway area, injuring four people, including a suspect now in custody. then, wildfires rage out of control in southern california, scorching hundreds of thousands of acres in what is now the fifth largest fire in the state's history. and, we report from alabama ahead of tomorrow's special senate election, amid a national debate over allegations of sexual misconduct. all that and more on tonight's pbs newshour.

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>> this program was made possible by the corporation for public broadcasting. and by contributions to your pbs station from viewers like you. thank you. >> woodruff: two weeks before christmas, residents and workers in new york city experienced another heart-wrenching moment when an explosion occurred in a passageway in the subway near the port authority bus terminal. the would-be suicide bomber left at least three people with minor injuries. >> approximately 7:20 this morning we had a terror-related incident in the subway in the >> brangham: emergency crews swarmed the streets near times square this morning, after a man detonated a homemade pipe bomb in the subway. >> it's the guy in the hoodie. >> brangham: here, cellphone

video of a port authority surveillance monitor purports to show the moment the assailant set it off. a finger points out the alleged assailant among the commuters, and then a blast and a burst of smoke. left behind, a single body sprawled on the ground. the attacker was taken to a hospital with minor burns. elsewhere in the packed station, the blast created a panic during rush hour. >> suddenly, i see a group of people, like six people, running like nuts. >> brangham: new york city mayor bill deblasio said the city had avoided a major catastrophe. >> and let's be also clear this was an attempted terrorist attack. thank god, the perpetrator did not achieve his ultimate goals. thank god our >> brangham: law enforcement officials identified the assailant as 27-year-old akayed ullah. they say ullah was inspired by, but didn't make direct contact with, the islamic state group. officials believe ullah may be of bangladeshi descent.

white house spokesman sarah sanders today said ullah was here on what's called an f-43 visa-- one of many that's granted to foreign relatives of u.s. citizens, and one she said president trump wants to curtail. >> we know that the president's policy calls for an end to chain migration. which is what this individual came to the united states through. and if his policy had been in place, then that attacker wouldn't be allowed to come in country. >> brangham: authorities say the bomb was a low-tech explosive device, strapped to the attacker by velcro and plastic ties. the "new york times" reported the suspect apparently said he chose the subway because of christmas-themed posters. at ullah's home in brooklyn, police looked for clues into his background and motive. for the pbs newshour, i'm william brangham in new york. >> woodruff: in the day's other news, the final push was on to drum up more support a day before voters cast ballots in alabama's special senate election. republican candidate and former

alabama state chief justice roy moore is running neck and neck with democrat doug jones, a former federal prosecutor. moore has been accused of sexual misconduct with teenage girls while he was a district attorney in his early 30's. we'll take a closer look at the race later in the program. three women who've previously accused president trump of sexual harassment spoke out again today in new york. they demanded a congressional investigation into the president, who's been accused of sexual misconduct by more than a dozen women. >> they've investigated other congress members so i think it only stands fair that he be investigated as well. and i think also a non-partisan investigation is also very important. not just for him but for anybody who has allegations against them. this isn't a partisan issue. >> woodruff: today, the white house cited mr. trump's previous contentions that the claims are false. press secretary sarah sanders

also said of the allegations, "the american people knew this and voted for the president." meanwhile, democratic senator kirsten gillibrand of new york has become the fourth senator to call for president trump to resign amid the sexual misconduct claims. mario ba tally is stepping away from his restaurant empire operations and tv show after four women accused him of sexual misconduct. and two more men in the news two more men in the media industry are facing accusations of sexual misconduct. "the new yorker" announced today it's severed ties with political journalist ryan lizza over "improper sexual conduct." and npr has placed veteran journalist and "on point" host tom ashbrook on leave while the network investigates wrongdoing allegations made against him. a fiery inferno is raging out of control northwest of los angeles.

nearly 6,400 firefighters from 11 different states are now battling to make headway against the so-called "thomas fire". it's already scorched more than 230,000 acres since first igniting last week. clouds of ash and smoke billowed from the santa barbara foothills today, as the thomas fire roared unabated. helicopters hauled and dumped water, part of the week-long struggle by firefighters to get it under control. >> we've been up, i'm at 29 hours straight, every other day. we are exhausted, but we aren't coming off until this is done. >> woodruff: the fire was just 15% contained today, spreading west from ventura to santa barbara county. it's enveloped the towns of carpinteria and montecito that sit between los padres national forest and the coastline. thousands have been ordered to evacuate, and more have been warned they should be ready to

leave if the fire moves closer. so far, nearly 800 buildings have been consumed by the thomas fire-- an inferno fueled in tinder-dry conditions and whipped up by the santa ana winds. it all adds up to what is now among the five worst fires in california history. throughout santa barbara county, residents and evacuees flocked to stores to buy masks. outside, the air was acrid and thick with smoke, underscoring the need for protection. >> i don't want any damage to the lungs of my family so to not have it masks would worry me. we're in ojai, so we're at the center of, when we go back home we'll be at the center of the smog or smoke. >> woodruff: evacuation orders were lifted in most of ventura county, where the thomas fire wreaked havoc before moving west. >> it's probably the scariest experience i've ever had. certainly the closest experience i've ever had up close and personal with fire.

we're talking fire everywhere. this whole ravine was completely ablaze. >> woodruff: five other fires across southern california have now been largely contained. parts of san diego were scorched by the lilac fire last week. over the weekend, residents returned home, or, to what remained of home. >> its devastating, i lost my husband, i'll be a widow this tuesday for 20 years. and i lost wedding rings and wedding pictures, wedding license stuff i cant replace. >> woodruff: but back in santa barbara county, the thomas fire seems far from dying out, and the worst may be yet to come. several school districts there said they'd remain closed until the new year. the cause of the "thomas fire" is still under investigation. a federal judge in washington today ruled that the u.s. military must accept new transgender recruits beginning january 1st. the judge denied a request by

the trump administration to delay implementing an obama-era order allowing transgender individuals to enlist. white house officials said the department of justice is reviewing its legal options. in syria, russia's president vladimir putin said his country is partially withdrawing its troops from the war-ravaged nation. putin declared victory over the islamic state today during a surprise visit to a russian air base there. he also met with syria's president bashar al-assad. >> ( translated ): the terrorist threat in the whole world is still very high. however the task of fighting armed bandits here in syria, a task that it was essential to solve with the help of extensive use of armed forces, has for the most part been solved and solved brilliantly. i congratulate you! >> woodruff: putin is the first foreign head of state to visit syria since its civil war began in 2011. israeli prime minister benjamin netanyahu urged the european

union today to follow president trump's lead in recognizing jerusalem as his country's capital. he met with the e.u.'s foreign policy chief, federica mogherini, in brussels. afterward, in a joint news conference, netanyahu praised mr. trump's decision, and called on more nations to do the same. >> i think what president trump has done is put facts squarely on the table. peace is based on reality. peace is based on recognizing reality. jerusalem is israel's capital. no one can deny it. it doesn't obviate peace, it makes peace possible. >> woodruff: but mogherini said she made clear to netanyahu that the european union's view remains unchanged. after their meeting, she said all 28 member states would continue recognizing tel aviv as israel's capital. >> i have to say that prime minister netanyahu realized, i think, from the ministers themselves that there is full

e.u. unity on this, that the only realistic solution to the conflict between israel and palestine is based on two states, with jerusalem as the capital of both the state of israel and the state of palestine. >> woodruff: meanwhile, palestinian leader mahmoud abbas was in egypt today, as part of an effort to rally middle eastern nations to reject the u.s. decision. u.s. astronauts may soon be headed back to the moon, and eventually to mars. in a ceremony at the white house today, president trump signed a directive formally ordering nasa to lead a new space exploration program for future missions. the announcement was timed to coincide with the 45th anniversary of apollo 17, the last human voyage to the moon. and stocks rose higher on wall street today, led by the technology and energy sectors. the dow jones industrial average gained nearly 57 points to close at a record high of 24,386. the nasdaq rose 35 points, and

the s&p 500 added eight. still to come on the newshour: one on one with the country's outgoing counter-terrorism director. the alabama senate race coming down to the wire. nato war games aimed at russia, and much more. >> woodruff: we return now to our top story: the attempted bombing this morning of a new york city subway. i spoke with nicholas rasmussen, the director of the national counterterrorism center, earlier today about the latest in the investigation and what officials know about the alleged bomber's motive. >> this is the kind of event that bears all the hall m of a terrorist event. i'm certainly going to defer to my f.b.i. and new york police

department colleagues who have been speaking publicly about it today. they're the closest to the investigation. but again, what we're hearing from them suggests this is an individual who had a terrorist intent and at least it seems as if he wasn't able to carry out the kind of deadly attack he might have hoped to. >> woodruff: should new york city have been better prepared for this, or is this the kind of low-tech event that americans are just going to have to get used to happening? >> i would put new york up there with any metropolitan police department in the world, perhaps above any metropolitan police department in the world in terms of their level of preparation and capability. so the last thing you will hear from me is any critique or crittism of how well new york is prepared. this is just a feature of the landscape we're living in, in the modern world. the kind of terrorist attack that's very difficult to prevent, if it involves someone who is acting alone, acting with

relatively small-scale material capabilities, that these are not the o of -- kinds of things that are easily prevented. >> woodruff: someone acting alone, how does this fit into the larker picture of the terrorism threat this country faces. >> i want to be careful talking about this particular case because i think we've learned over time these stories always have layers and there will be layers to be uncovered as the nypd and the f.b.i. investigate this individual. but, as i said, it bears the hallmarks of the kind of terrorism we're seeing, individuals who are not necessarily tied directly to teafort organization -- to a terrorist organization, they're not operating at the command and control of some figure in baghdad or syria, but they are often operating inspired by a terrorism narrative that they see and attach to a group like i.s.i.s., and those individuals acting alone can be quite lethal

and dangerous but they also, at the same time, often don't have the same high-level capability of a terrorist cell of the sort we saw during the al quaida-dominated era of a few years ago. >> woodruff: you just referred to i.s.i.s., the islamic state being driven out of the terrorist they will be holding in iraq and syria, so how do you describe the threat they pose now to the united states? >> well, we've certainly done a great deal to counter the kind of threat i.s.i.s. presented when it maintained that kind of territorial control over large swaths of iraq and syria, but now having shrunk the territorial safe haven, the group is finding it is adapting its model, looking to inspire individuals operating overseas, rather than trying to direct and command and control them but instead looking to motivate individuals to act in their own environment. don't come to iraq and syria, do what you can where you are using whatever tools at your disposal

whether a gun or knife or vehicle as we saw in new york some weeks back as well. that's different model of terrorism, it's harder to prevent. it looks often like a criminal model but still can be quite lethal and dangerous. >> woodruff: and what does that mean for americans, how people who live in this country should think about terrorism? >> i think it puts us in a place where americans need to be responsible, in many cases, for their own security. looking around, understanding what's happening around you, maintaining situational awareness, because it's not likely in most cases that the f.b.i. or the federal government will bust up a terrorist cell of tis sort in advance. but as i said, these acts almost operate at the level of criminal acts. they're not married very different from what criminals often do. so much like other forms of criminal violence, see something, say something, you know, reach out to the local law enforcement authorities. if you see something that looks

amiss and be a participant in your own community security. >> woodruff: so what would you say are the odds of another huge 9/11-scale attack on this country? >> i don't know that ewould put a single number on it, but i do know that the work we've done as a government against al quaida operating out of pakistan and afghanistan over the last decade has made that kind of attack increasingly difficult for al quaida and we face far less prospect of that kind of attack today than a decade ago. that's something americans can feel pretty good about. >> woodruff: president trump has taken, i think it's fair to say, a much stronger anti-islam stance than his predecessors. how does that affect the work you do? >> i would say, at one level, it really doesn't impact the work that we do. the kind of direct security service to security service cooperation we engage in with

key partner countries around the world, whether the british, the french, the germans, the australians, the canadians, all of our closest partners. i would argue it really doesn't impact, day to day, the kind of professional-level law enforcement and intelligence operation we engage in. where it can be complicating is we need the support and participation of muslim communities in our effort to identify potential terrorists and to get ahead of or disrupt potential terrorist attacks, and anything -- even if it's just a perception that the united states is anti-islam, anything that makes that process of community engagement more difficult just has to our challenges. >> woodruff: finally, there's a lot of conversation lately about cuts at the state department and the diplomatic corps. what have you seen in terms of staffing in our own field? have you seen cuts? and how is the morale there?

the president has been pretty critical of the intelligence community in the past year. how do you -- >> well, thus far, i think we have been able to sustain the kind of resource picture that we need to carry out the functions that the american people would want us to carry out, and we have not experienced those kinds of cuts. as far as morale is concerned, when you have a mission like counterterrorism, it isn't hard to keep morale up in your organization. my workforce, my colleagues at n.c.t.c. come to work every day knowing exactly why they're there and it's to keep fellow americans safe. they're also, i think, increasing ribecoming used to the idea that everybody's better off in our line of work if you can tune out politics, and, so, i encourage them to do that. tune out politics of anything that you're watching on tv that causes you to stop doing what you're doing is pretty not a good thing. so especially with younger officers, i try to keep them focused on the mission, keep them focused on doing what they signed up to do, which is

everything in their power to keep their fellow americans safe. >> woodruff: nick schifrin, nick rasmussen, director of the national counterterrorism center for the next eleven days. >> that's right. >> woodruff: thank you very much. >> thank you, judy. >> woodruff: now, to alabama, where it is election eve for what has shaped up to be a surprise toss-up race for senate. we begin with this report from alabama public television's don dailey. >> how many people here are from the great state of alabama? >> reporter: the president ended last week in florida, but not far from his mind: alabama. >> the future of this country cannot afford to lose a seat in the very, very close united states senate, so get out and vote for roy moore. >> reporter: in the final days

of the campaign, democratic candidate doug jones barnstormed the state with multiple events. >> this is an election to tell the world who we are! >> reporter: by contrast, his opponent roy moore avoided the campaign trail and the national media. he chose instead to talk to a local news show about accusations that have rocked the campaign. >> i did not know any of the women who have charged me with sexual allegations of molestation. >> reporter: in recent weeks, nine women have accused moore of sexual misconduct. most of them said they were in their teens when he pursued them romantically while in his 30s. beverly young nelson said moore assaulted her at age 16. >> i tried fighting him off, while yelling at him to stop, but instead of stopping he began squeezing my neck attempting to force my head onto his crotch. >> reporter: the charges have led some alabamians to call for

moore to drop out. >> we wouldn't want someone representing our district or our state that has done that to young girls. we have young girls who are watching and young men who are watching and we don't want that to be the role model or the legacy that we give to them. >> reporter: while governor kay ivey is sticking by moore, other prominent alabama republicans like senator richard shelby have spoken out against him. >> and i think so many accusations, so many cuts, so many drip, drip, drip, when it got to the 14-year-old story, that was enough for me. i said, i can't vote for roy moore. >> reporter: but many in moore's base are standing by him. some enthusiastically. >> i truly believe the truth will come out and will show judge moore is being falsely accused, just like joseph in the bible. >> reporter: others are supporting moore reluctantly. >> i do respect women and i think it's awful that if it did happen. but i think i'm going to have to

vote for him. >> reporter: moore is no stranger to controversy. he has openly spoken against transgender and gay people. >> no matter what you cut off or put on. you don't change your gender. >> reporter: blamed 9/11 on americans being sinful, and used derogatory terms when referring to certain minority groups. >> now we got blacks and whites fighting. reds and yellows fighting. >> reporter: moore was twice forced out as alabama's supreme court chief justice: first for refusing to remove his ten commandments monument from a government building and later for ordering other judges to defy the supreme court's gay marriage ruling. >> roy moore has never served our state with honor. never a source of pride, only a source of embarrassment to the state. >> reporter: moore's democratic opponent, doug jones, also had a career in law enforcement.

a former u.s. attorney, he successfully prosecuted members of the ku klux klan responsible for killing four african american girls during a birmingham church bombing in 1963. jones has accused moore of dodging what he says are issues at the core of the senate race: healthcare, education, jobs and the economy. >> he has never ever talked about the issues that this state faces. he wants to talk about the issues that divide us. >> reporter: moore does not shy away from his reputation as a rebel. he says senators in washington need a shock to the system. >> they're aware of my past. they're aware i'm difficult to manage, which means i've got my own mind; i don't follow the people. and they don't want that, they >> reporter: those sentiments are resonating with some alabama voters, who say electing a conservative outweighs concerns about the allegations against moore. >> this is way bigger than roy moore and sex allegations.

we are on the precipice of a disaster. this election puts the senate balance at critical mass. a democrat must not be seated. >> reporter: that concern has stretched all the way to washington, where senate republicans only hold a two-seat majority. and roy moore has a campaign rally planned in midland city a small community outside of dothan, alabama, in the southeastern part of the statement steve bannon, former white house chief strategist will join him at the rally. doug jones is holding a rally in birmingham where he will be joined by basketball star charles barclay. >> woodruff: a little bit more about that,ton. we know roy moore has steve bannon campaigning with him tonight. the president has recorded robo calls to go out in his behalf.

on the other hand, for doug jones, both former president obama, former vice presidento vt biden have recorded robocalls. >> the calls are apparently going to toes the doug jones campaign would most react favorably to those. doug jones in these final days has been really going after the african-american vote here in alabama, seeing that is crucial as a victory tomorrow. >> woodruff: and, dop, you were also telling you us doug jones is reaching out to some of the republican voters in the state. >> indeed. his campaign believes they need to pick up more moderate republicans to be successful tomorrow, republicans who may be on the fence because of the allegations surrounding roy moore or republicans who had their doubts about roy moore before the allegations surfaced.

i heard numbers that maybe they need to pick up maybe 15% of those uncertain republicans. >> don, you reported, mentioned again that senator richard shelby who, of course, is the sitting senator now elected a republican from alabama said he's not going to vote for roy moore. what kind of influence, what kind of comment is there about that around the state? >> i think alabamaians, by and large have taken what senator shelby said to heart. richard shelby is a very trusted, beloved politician in alabama. our elder statesman in washington, if you will. i think a lot of people put stock in what richard shelby has said and said them voluntarily without a lot of prompting. he says he feels judge moore isn't fit to serve in the senate and voted for another write-in candidate whom he did not identify. >> woodruff: and finally, don, any early thoughts about turnout? what are you hearing?

>> the secretary of state in alabama told us he projects 25% voter turnout in alabama tomorrow, up from the primary elections in this race, and he says that's primarily because absentee voting has been very strong in the leadup to the race, but 25% obviously would be better than the 18% we saw in the republican runoff for this race, but still very low given all that's at stake with this particular race. >> woodruff: don dailey watching the race for us in alabama, thank you very much, with alabama public television, thanks. >> thanks, judy. >> woodruff: we turn now to the national political implications of alabama's senate vote and breakdown the facts behind some of president trump's recent false statements with our politics monday team: amy walter of the "cook political report," and tamara keith of npr. thank you both for being here. amy, how does this alabama race look to you? >> it is a coin toss. you talk to folks who are down there in the state or who are

looking at it, pollsters, et cetera, appear, and they will tell you they just really don't know what to expect. we've seen polls that range from more and more up by -- roy moore up by 9 points to doug jones up by 10 points. it really comes down to what pollsters think the electorate will look at, they're modeling. it's very hard to model. not only is it an off-year election, it's a special election, and you have all these national implications, it's getting an outsized amount of attention and continue varies surrounding it. we know it's going to be very close and the package piece added up well which it is coming down to the influence of the african-american volt which is critical. how many republican voters stay home or, like senator she believey, write another name in? that could be worth 2 or 3 points in a race that could be decided by the narrowest of

margins. >> woodruff: a lot that both sides see in this outcome. >> indeed. president trump endorsed roy moore, went almost as close to alabama as you can get without stepping foot in alabama, and although it was billed as a rally for his own reelection, it clearly also became a rally for roy moore. so he is putting his name, h he is putting his political mojo and muscle behind getting roy moore elected. for republicans in congress, it's kind of a mixled bag. for some, they don't really want to have to serve with roy moore, but they don't really have that much say over it, and, in fact, you know, mitch mcconnell coming out against roy moore could well help him with some voters in alabama. >> yeah, it's another reminder just of the rift within the republican party and what they see as the stakes in this election. for folks like senator she believey, for republicans in washington, they're worried boat

about the impact on alabama and the republican party brand by having roy moore there. donald trump's objective is he's not as concerned about those two issues, he's concerned about his own brand. did he pick a winner and bring somebody across the finish line because of who he is and, of course, because of having a short-term win which is holding on to a seat that gives him the margin he needs to pass legislation. >> woodruff: is it possible to tell how much temperatures the president has made and now he's gotten involved, we have been talking about it, the republican national committee got reinvolved a few days ago, put money back in this race. any sense of whether that's tipping the scales? >> it's not a coincidence that the r.n.c. would start sending money back into alabama, basically right when president trump made it official that he was endorsing roy moore, that he was letting go of the "if these charges are true he should step aside" and going straight in and saying "i

endorse him," and the r.n.c. fell in line because president trump is the leader of the republican party and he sort of dictates where these things go. i don't think we know whether he is going to push this over. you know, there have been polls, and they are so vastly divergent that -- the good news is this will all be over tomorrow night. >> the other reality about alabama is it may be over but we know we're going to continue to litigate this, especially if he wins for a long time. it's also a matter how volatile and fluid a race for the gnat is. a year ago we wouldn't talk about alabama in the mix but we also remember we talk about a special senate election in minnesota because of al franken's resignations. we might see more retirements or resignations and then steve bannon actively going after republican incumbents and the establishment candidates. this is making the race for the

senate much more volatile than we thought it was going to be just a few months ago. >> woodruff: a lot of question marks. if in this mix, the the president made comments i want to ask you about, in that pensacola rally, tam, in which he's being called out for making claims for things that frankly cannot be backed up by the facts. at one point he said he won the election last year by a landslide. we know he compared himself to a number of other winners, and we know it was one of the narrowest wins in modern history. i want to show this to our viewers, a group of african-americans in the crowd watching him in pensacola. >> look at these guys, blacks for trump. i love you. (cheers and applause) i love you. (cheers and applause) i love you! by the way, now that you bring it up, black homeownership just hit the highest level it's ever

been in the history of our country. congratulations. >> but, tam, actually, that's not the case. >> no, black homeownership has not recovered from the great recession. but here's the thing about that. president trump, this is becoming like a regular feature of his rallies where he sees a sign or someone with a shirt that days blacks for trump and sort of calls them out and calls attention to them. you know, in this arena that is full of largely white voters, he wants to sort of bring focus to the people of color who were there to say, look, i am not those things you say i am. >> woodruff: there's more diversity among our supporters. another comment made, amy, he spoke about the number of bills he signed as president. let's listen to that. >> working with republicans in congress, we've already signed 88 pieces of legislation. we get to credit. they always say, well, you know, president trump really needs

this tax bill because he hasn't passed any legislation. well, so far, in ten months, we've passed more during this period of time than any other president in the. >> sreenivasan: riof our country and the second, let's call runner-up, was harry truman with second. >> woodruff: he has signed 88, 89 bills since being president but that's less than president obama, president clinton, president george h.w. bush, president regan. it's more than george w. bush, but he's claiming. >> he's lashing out for what he sees. he's not getting enough credit for the following. the economy is doing fairly well and that's not reflected in his job approval rating. his administration has done a lot through executive orders that have had and will continue to have a very big impact, and he's dominated a record number of judicial appointments which

will have a longer influence on policy. but when it comes to legislation, big overarching legislation, the you would expect the republican house and senate and white house to pass, no. >> woodruff: the number is correct, just by contrast to the other presidents. finally the story we reported earlier, three of the dozen or so women spoke at a news conference who accused president trump of sexual harassment, they're calling for congressional investigation. where does this go from here? >> it probably does not go to a congressional investigation. particularly on the left, i'm not saying these women are on the left, i think they are actually democrats, on the left there's a lot of frustration al franken was forced to resign and people aren't calling on donald trump to resign. four senate democrats have called on president trump to resign, but there's this sense that, you know, justice is not being equally meeted out and that, on the left, there's a lot

of frustration with this. >> yes, i can we should expect calls about resignation to continue to be part of the rhetoric going into 2018, and this idea that just because the president survived these allegations in 2016 and access hollywood tape, that they're no longer important to voters, i think is incorrect. i think now we have a different focus, we've seen powerful men who, in 2016, wouldn't have necessarily lost their jobs over sexual harassment charges, have lost their jobs, and i think this is going to be part of an overall, as we're talking about how much have things changed in this country on the issue of sexual harassment, the president's name is going to be brought in there, and if roy moore wins, the connection between a president accused of sexual harassment, supporting someone accused of sexual misconduct is going to be a really important discussion. >> woodruff: so, but, tam, should we see this purely through a political lens or is it the bigger #metoo

conversation? >> i think what these people are saying is they're saying they came forward before the election and it didn't have an effect. president trump is president trump, but they feel like the conversation is in a different place, now, than it was in the fall of 2016. there are people like harvey weinstein and matt lauer who have lost their jobs and that's why they're coming forward again to try to keep the conversation going because they feel frustrated by the fact that they were just passed over. >> woodruff: and that came through at their news conference. >> absolutely. >> woodruff: tamera keith, amy walter, we thank you. >> you're welcome. >> woodruff: "politics monday." stay with us, coming up on the newshour: the congressional tax bill provision that eliminates deductions for medical expenses.

but first, since russia's invasion of ukraine and annexation of crimea, both russia and the u.s. have moved forces, and held military exercises on a scale not seen since the cold war. american and nato troops are now positioned in eastern europe and the baltic states, close to russian forces. they are constantly drilling and practicing for a war no one wants. special correspondent ryan chilcote was recently in poland to watch these exercises. >> reporter: it's a military exercise of extraordinary complexity... 800 soldiers, attack helicopters, tank busters. preparing to fight an army with weapons and a level of sophistication the u.s. military hasn't seen on the battlefield in decades mistakes are bound to happen.

>> you fully acknowledge you're dead right? you've got to re-think how you are going to do this. >> yes sergeant major. >> reporter: colonel patrick ellis commands the soldiers training today. so how is this exercise going so far? >> it's good, i mean look, it's a training event, so they didn't show up out here expecting that it was all going to be perfect right? >> reporter: these infantrymen are less than an hour's drive away from russian troops. nato stationed them here after russia intervened in ukraine. the scenario: the russian army has just seized a strip of land in one of the baltic countries, just like it did in ukraine. the difference is, this time it's a nato country and the u.s. army intends to take it back. >> this is the highest end scenario that we could possibly think of the train on, it's a great opportunity for us to practice the worst case scenario. >> reporter: the drill's main feature is a trench that's nine football fields long.

the u.s. military modeled it after a trench used by pro- russian fighters in eastern ukraine. >> what we're prepared for here is this kind of a toe to toe fight here in the trench. using these tools to make sure that that fight is, is as unfair as humanly possible. >> reporter: kevin muhlenbeck is the 2nd cavalry regiment's sergeant major. how real world is this if there was a conflict with russia? >> sir, i will tell you i've been doing this for 25 years and this is some of the most realistic live fire training that i have ever done. it's amazing how fast in my opinion, it would go right back to trench warfare, world war i. >> reporter: colonel christopher l'heureux is the commander of the nato unit. >> i forgot who said it but they said history never repeats itself, but sometimes it rhymes. this skill set is as you see is a pretty tough, tough thing to master and which is why we get our guys to come in and go after it again and again and again.

>> reporter: if russia and nato end up in a conflict in the baltics, who wins? >> russia would defeat nato. >> reporter: david shlapak is with the rand corporation, a think tank that advises the u.s. military. after russia annexed crimea in 2014, shlapak set up a war game to consider what might happen if russia made a sudden incursion into the baltic countries of estonia, latvia and lithuania, all of which are now nato members, and former soviet republics. >> our analysis is that nato's forces would be outgunned, outnumbered, and overwhelmed in 36 to 60 hours. >> reporter: since that initial analysis, nato has deployed about 4,000 troops to poland and the baltics. but rand's view hasn't changed. >> the work that nato has done

since then are important symbolic measures that indicate the alliance's commitment, but in terms of actual combat power, they're minimal contributions and make very little difference. >> reporter: i think a lot of americans would be surprised that if russia and nato got into a conflict, it would be a land war. a lot of people assume we'd be looking at nuclear war. >> escalation to the use of nuclear weapons is one very plausible outcome of any war between russia and nato. it's one reason why our work focuses on preventing a war from happening in the first place. >> reporter: general ben hodges is the commander of u.s. army europe and believes rand has it wrong. >> i completely disagree with their assessment and we talked about it. if everybody was asleep. if baltic countries had done nothing to be prepared and we were completely surprised, it would really, really be bad.

but over the last two years, what i've seen from our latvian, lithuanian, estonian allies in terms of fulfilling their responsibility, they're living up to it. and then you add in these formations of up to 1000 troops, tanks ah real capability. it's a completely different set of circumstances than what the rand study anticipated. >> reporter: at the end of the cold war, there were 16 nato member nations. today there are 29. vladimir putin says with the collapse of the soviet union and its hostile foreign policy, nato should have been dissolved, not encroaching on its borders. >> ( translated ): our biggest mistake was that we trusted you too much. you interpreted our trust as weakness and you exploited that. >> reporter: for general hodges, the mistrust goes both ways. >> i don't think that's likely that russia would out and out attack. of course, i was wrong. i never anticipated they would

attack crimea or the donbass in the eastern ukraine. so i'm reluctant to say, "well, they would never attack lithuania. they would never attack latvia." >> reporter: using a term not heard much since the cold war, nato says it wants to "deter" russia from even contemplating an invasion. the goal: make that prospect look painful, with significantly fewer nato troops. >> i was a lieutenant here in 1981 in germany. about 300,000 soldiers in west germany when there was east and west germany. today, we have 30,000 soldiers. our task is to make that 30,000 look and feel like 300,000. >> reporter: the nato exercises are just the most recent in the tit for tat of exercises on both sides of this conflict. in september, russia conducted

what may have been its largest military exercise since the collapse of the soviet union, fielding tens of thousands of troops. what was your takeaway from from those russian exercises? >> frankly it's that they're not as good as they say they are. who hasn't seen the picture of the accidental rocket launch at the v.i.p. stands. right, obviously the guy flipping knobs, flipped the wrong knob, hit the wrong button. >> reporter: russia appears to be hitting several buttons, as the colonel learned after a day in the field, returning to his phone that had been hacked. >> i turned it on and it had" lost iphone on it." and i'm like huh? what the heck? so i thumbed through it, you know, thumbprint in, and it says, somebody is trying to access your iphone apple account, and it shows you a picture of a map, and the city in the middle of the map was moscow. >> reporter: nato insists that it does not have moscow in its sights and remains a defensive

alliance. >> nato wants to say, hey, we're not being offensive, we're not trying to expand or anything. we have just enough force to give you a pause. without us here it's still a problem for putin, but with us here, we make the math problem a whole lot harder if russia decides they want to take something. >> reporter: after nato's exercise in october, the kremlin said it is considering adding troops and missiles near the border. for the pbs newshour, i'm ryan chilcote in orzysz, poland. >> woodruff: republican leaders in the house and the senate are meeting this week to try to iron out their differences over a tax overhaul plan, and send a bill to the president by christmas. we're continuing to look at

important provisions that are the subject of concern and one starting to get more attention is the elimination of a tax deduction for medical expenses. lisa desjardins zeroes in on that. >> desjardins: the house version of the tax bill eliminates the medical deduction. individuals qualify if medical costs exceed more than 10% of income. the senate version goes the other way: it would make it easier for americans to qualify for it. but consumer groups are worried the deduction may be killed as part of the final bill. christina martin firvida is with a.a.r.p., which has taken a position here: they are lobbying lawmakers to keep the deduction. she's here tonight to help walk through how it works and who could be impacted. thank you for joining us. >> thank you. >> desjardins: let's start with a little bit of history and bring it to current times. how tid this deduction start and what is the house trying to? >> well, since the 1940s, individuals who had very high

healthcare costs have been permitted to deduct those from their income while preparing federal income taxes. so this is a deduction that's been in the code for decades. unfortunately we see with the house bill an attempt to repeal the medical expense deduction, and that will affect many, many tax filers. 8.8 million tax filers take the deduction annually. >> last week we sent out a call online to everyone reading the web site. we wanted their questions on the tax bill and got questions on this particular issue. i want to high light two e-mails. first from elizabeth gross in begham, washington. she wrote, my husband and i are both in our '70s and living on a fixed income. he has alzheimer's disease and needs skilled nursing care. if this deduction goes away, i are need to sell my house to pay for his medical expenses. and this from lawrence in san francisco. he wrote simply, how will the

loss of medical deduction affect seniors on -- on limited budgets with medical conditions? obviously there are some people worried about losing everything because of this change. >> sure, so this is a concern we're also hearing from many of our members. something to bear in mind about the medical expense deduction is it is available for anyone at any age, but overwhelmingly older americans claim this deduction because unfortunately as we age our healthcare costs do go up. we have heard from many of our own members who shared similar stories about what it will mean to lose this deduction. for most people, we've heard from, they have said it will raise the cost of their healthcare because they will lose the tax benefit associated with the deduction and make them go through their life savings much more quickly as they meet the high healthcare costs in older age. >> desjardins: do you have the sense of the average deduction for this right now?

>> it depends on the expenses an individual has and your income, so it's very hard to pin down an average. of course, you're only permitted to take it if your expenses exceed currently 10% of our income, so it varies both by the amount that you make each year and the amount you spend. >> you mentioned that many seniors and others are worried about running through what savings they have, if p they lose this deduction. is there any indication perhaps more people will have to turn to medicaid because of this? are there any kind of statistics on that? >> we have heard that as well. we have not had an analysis from any of the official scorekeepers, for example, from the congressional budget office to explain what the effect will be on medicaid, but we have heard that from our own members who have explained to us that currently they use their life savings and other assets that they may have to pay for expenses such as nursing home care and, if they lose the

deduction, they will run through their savings much more quickly and they will end up having depleted their assets and having to turn to medicaid to meet more of their healthcare expenses. >> we know the majority of people who take this deduction now are earning under $75,000 and also speaking to the house ways and means committee, we know the chairman said he wants to put this h on the table during negotiations, see if there's a way to find a middle ground here. republicans overall, christina, say that this is in the name of spreading out sort of tax benefits so that take away these deductions and more people get a tax cut. do they have a point there? >> well, we have been telling policymakers what you just noted. this is a middle income deduction. close to 70% of the individuals who claim it have income under $75,000. by comparison, only 35% of individuals who claim the mortgage interest or charitable deduction have incomes of under 75,000.

so i think an important thing to bear in mind is as we look for ways to simplify the tax code, we want to be fair in the way that we do that. it's unfair to tell people who are sick through no choice of their own that their taxes may do go up. >> desjardins: christina martin firvida of aarp, thank you for joining us. >> thank you. >> woodruff: on the newshour online right now, the primary driver of drug overdose deaths in the u.s. is fentanyl, a potent synthetic opioid that presents a new challenge for medical professionals. can medication-assisted therapies stem the surge? doctors say the jury is still out. read more on our web site, pbs.org/newshour. and that's the newshour for tonight.

on tuesday, five years after the deadly shooting at a connecticut elementary school, an effort to identify students who could pose a threat. i'm judy woodruff. join us online and again here tomorrow evening. for all of us at the pbs newshour, thank you and see you soon. >> major funding for the pbs newshour has been provided by: >> and by the alfred p. sloan foundation. supporting science, technology, and improved economic performance and financial literacy in the 21st century. >> supported by the john d. and catherine t. macarthur foundation. committed to building a more just, verdant and peaceful world. more information at macfound.org >> and with the ongoing support of these institutions

>> this program was made possible by the corporation for public broadcasting. and by contributions to your pbs station from viewers like you. thank you. captioning sponsored by newshour productions, llc captioned by media access group at wgbh access.wgbh.org

tukufu: we're the history detectives, and we're going to investigate some untold stories from america's past. gwen: in this episode, we discover if long hidden poems carved on the walls of a bleak island prison were written by this young woman's ancestors. wes: "i suffered misery on the ship "and sadness in the wooden building. unconscious tears wet my lapel." tukufu: i find out how a treasure trove of papers belonging to the legendary abolitionist john brown ended up in a garage in sacramento. this is a personal letter from john brown written five years before harper's ferry.