captioning sponsored by wnet >> thompson: on this edition for sunday, november 4: countdown to election day and what to watch. in our signature segment, a look at the political landscape and probability with the founder of 538. and utah millennials, hoping to make their mk at the polls in the beehive state. next on s newshour weekend. ho >> pbs ne weekend is made possible by: bernard and irene schwartz. sue and edgar wachenheim iii. seton melvin. the cheryl and philip milstein family.p. droy vagelos and diana t. vagelos. the j.p.b. foundation. rosalind p. walter. barbara hope zuckerberg. corporate funding is provided by mutual of america-- designing customized individual and group retirement products.

that's why we're your retirement company. additional support has been provided by: d by the corporation for public broadcasting, and by contributions to your pbs station from viewers like you. thank you. tfrom the tisch wudios at lincoln center in new york, megan thomon. >> thompson: good evening and thank you for joining us.it all about turnout now with less than 48 hours to go until traditional polling places open for tuesday's midterm elections. early voting in 27 states has already exceeded the total early votes from the 2014 midterm election, according to the university of florida elections project. in one example: in florida, more than 4.8 million vots had already cast a ballot through early voting or absentee ballot by today, 1.5 million more than the total early vote in 2014's midterms. "new york times" polling shows

races too close to call for dozens of house and sena seats and this morning leaders in both parties focused on possible paths to victory. the chair of the democratic senatorial campaign committee said it is a "very narrow" path for democrats to take the senate. this is the toughest political map any one party has faced in 60 years and if you t wehave asked people year and a half ago where we would be, you would not even be asking the question about whether or not we have a path to a senate democratic majority.n: >> thomphe head of the republican national committee acknowledged her party is facing a tough fight to hold its majority in the house of representatives. >> it's going to depend on voter turnout on election day. e democrhusiasm is definitely there. we are seeing that in the eally voting, inf these key house and senate races and republicans have been matching. so literally election day voting is going to determine thela e of the house. >> thompson: and in one very close race for governor in w

georgire the republican candidate brian kemp is also the current secretary of state, the secretary of state's office announced this weekend that it is investigating the state's democratic party "for possible cyber crimes" after an alleged"t failedpt to hack the state's voter registration system". there was no evidence cited. the democratic candidate for governor stacey abrams calledin thstigation an attempt to distract voters: >> he is desperate to tu the conversation away from his failures, from his refusal to honor his commitments with, and from the fact th he is part of a nationwide system of voter suppression that will not work in this election. because we are going to outwork him, we are going to out vote him and we are going to win. >> thompson: if you plan onct watching the en returns on tuesday, you're likely to be swamped with information about races from one end of the country to the other. for some "cliff's notes" on what to look for in the returns, i recently sat down with pbsee newshournd special correspondent jeff greenfield. >> t so much for being here

>> my pleasure >> thompson: so you say on tuesday you will look for clues very early in the evening. india is the first state to report and that's where one of the endangered democratic senatorss is fighting for his life, joe don nelley, he loses that is going to tell us whatever slim chance the democrats think they hae of taking the senate is even slimmer, but also going to be looking at conditions, a district where retired marine fighter pilot amy mcgraph is waging a tough campaign against incumbent >> this is a deeply red district, if sheuld pull off an upset that is an early clue there may be in fact a democratic blue wave billion stg florida and georgia, they both ha gotten a lot of attention from the governor races >> yes, even though there is a tight sete race in florida, bill neil nielsen 0 governor the governor scott, running for senate, those race got enormous attention because both ina florwith andrew gillam and stacey abrams we are talking about african-american candidates running very strongly and in particularly the case of

abrams if she wins with e will be the first black female governor anywhere ever in the united states, so everyone will be looking at that one >> thompson: i understand that a little bit later in evening you will be looking at races in the northeast >> a couple of weeks ago we reported here ants the troublats oderate republicans are having in the suburbs and donald trump is the head wind they are facing, is so in new yor pennsylvania, new jersey combined have about ten races that could flip, that's almost half of what the democrats need to take the house. so if you see, i am being very specific if you see leonard lance, five term congressmany from new jerse that is trouble for the republicans, if you see peter king, a 25 year veteran from long island lose now you are talking about not av but a tsunami >> turning to the midwest there are a lot of key senate race there is but you say you are going to be looking at the governor's races, >> yes er thompson: why? >> it is true thare endangered democrats we talked about donnelley and talking about heidi heitkamp in north nh dakota and clae mccaskill in missouri but i am fascinate bid the governor's races because

after 2010 almost the entire rust belt was governed by repuaicans and that hd enormous public policy consequences, it is possible now wisconsin, michigan, ohio, iowa, all will flip to the democrats and that we would see deocts now in control and that means everything from a big change in laaw to environmental law, to abortion laws, to the redrawing of congressional districts. so that is why for me the vernor's races we already mentioned florida and georgia, that could really be the big e story of tning >> thompson: finally let's turn west. you say we are also going to be able to get a lot of answers abn t what might hapt there >> well, once again, we have got senate race bus in this case, there is one endangered democrat, a tester of montana,t bu two senate races, democrats most hope to capture are in the west in arizona, that is an open seat, and dean heller's seat in ineffective -- and so if soehow the democrats who are endangered back east ld on to their seats that will decide who takes the senate and

finally, can't ignore californi because the some half a dozen house seats, just like in the northeast, moderatend conservative republicans in districts hillary clinton carriea and if that blue wve isn't strong enough to have taken the housing by then,ia califoill tell us whether or not the democrats or republicans hold the housere >> thompson:ou, any surprises you think might pop up on tuesday? >> there is one specific one, up in alaska, don young, the at thrge house heb from alaska has been representinstate for 46 years and there are rumblings he may be in trouble. that would really send some shock waves through capitol hill. more broadly, there is some indication that millennials who e always assumed correctly not to be voting much, may be tuing out, the ely vote for millennials has been very surprising. so if the polling we have seenno hataken that into account and it is hard to reach y millennials are a poll person, all of our assumptions about the wave in the house and how the senate might go get

thrown into a top hat and we wake up wednesday and how in heavens name did that happen a >> thompson: all right, jeff greenfield, thank you so much. >> >> thompson: read about democratic candidate abigail spanberger, a former c.i.a. officer stirring up a race for congress in northern virginia. visit our website, pbs.org/newshour. thousands marched through the streets of tehran today to mark the 39th anniversary of the takeover of the u.s. embassy. shortly after an islamic revolution in 1979, iranian students stormed the u.s. embassy d took 52 americans hostage for 444 days. today's demonstrations included chants of "down with the u.s." and "death to israel" on friday, the u.s. announced that it will re-impose all sanctions against iran's shipping, financial, and energy sectors beginning to. enmy national guard major taylor was identified as the u.s. service member shot and

killeduring an insider attack in kabul, afghistan yesterday. taylor, 39, was the mayor of north ogden, utah, and on his second deploymt to afghanistan after serving two tours in iraq. he is survived by his wife and seven children. in his final facebook post last sunday, after witnessing afghanistan's recent election, taylor urged americans to vote, writing: "i hope everyone back home exercises their precious right to vote" and "...that we all remember that we have ar moamericans that unites us than divides us." >> thompson: with this year's midterm elections ayst two days many political junkies and bystanders alike will be consulting the political news " websi"538." named for the number of votes in the electoral college, 538 uses national and local polls, as

well as historical voting patterns to create an election forecast model that is perhaps the most closely watched in the country. their most recent forecast show x in seven chance that democrats will win the house and similar odds that republicans will hold control of the senate. this week, pbs newshour weekend's christopher booker sat in on a taping of 538's podcast and discussed with founder nate silver and his colleagues how theyover today's news and political landscape. >> hello a welcome to the "538 politics podcast," my name is jodi avirgan, we are eight days away froelection day. >> reporter: as he has done many times times before, ho jody avirgan has assembled the "538 politics" podcast team to talk about the coming election. >> i think everyone knows this happens. which is people call up reporters and they say this is why we are going to win and this is why the state is looking rosy. >> reporter: ia crowded field of over a half-million podcasts, the show has emerged as a must listen, ranking among to the top 150 podcasts available on ittunes. >> the midterms are really important.

it's the country's first major chance to say how it feels about ferything that is happening. >> reporter: 538ecast modeburst onto the political scene during the 2008 presidential election, when founder nate silver calculated the results of the popular vote within one percentage point. in 2012, he got it right again, this time rrectly identifying the winner in all 50 states. but 2016, was a bit different. 538's forecast model sl outside much of the popular narrative.ut s had given hillary clinton a 90% chance of winningy the "nk times" model gave her an 85% chance of winning. while 538, only gave her justnc over a 71% c there was critelism before the tion that you had the probability of a trump victory around 30%. oit was amongst the highe the forecasts and then there was criticism afterward that you didn't have the probability corrt. did 2016 change the way you model probability? >> no, because we think our forecast was right.

that very few people thought it was a coetitive election. if you looked at the data carefully and built a good you would have known th trump winning was not that big a surprise. >> reporter: while they haven't changed their model,have changed the way they describe their forecasts, emphasizing 538 trades in probability, not prediction. we have thought about people's misinterpretations and i think everyone, all news consumers are getting smarter. now we do it in, "you know this person has a one in six chance of winning," so it's more the wernacular of when we talk about everyday life analk about gambling or chance we usually do one in whatever the number is. >> reporter: silver says, this clarifies what the forecast is indicating for the audience. >> well, first of all,e don't confuse it as much. because they think 20%, they think it means, "oh, trump's ly getting 20% of the vote right," instead of having a 20% or 30% in our model chance, it harces them to think about it actually means, right?bu if we have a model that gives democrats for example one in six now chance of holding of winne senate. that's not just meant to like hedge our bets, we're sayinghe

that givenncertainty in polling that if you have this election six times under similar circumstances one of six times they would, they would wind up winning. >> i wonder if it that is worth parsing out? >> reporter: according to silver, the podcast gives the a team a widnue to explain the complicated methodologies that drive 538's forecast models. >> i think it's a way to make ntent that's like pretty technical and pretty dense, more accessible to people. it's a way to let peopd of see our thought process. >> this is what is so tricky about covering politics, is, getting the facts right is hard enough, but what are you putting emphasis on, what are you spending the majority of the time talkingbout. i think it's good for journalism to level with the reader or the listener or the viewer and say, "hey here's what we know, here's what we don't know, here's how we're thinking about it." i think that helps and i think that builds trust. >> i thought it could be helpful for readers to kind of see right next to each other republican

spin and democratic spin on the senate map, which we are currently giving the republicans a better chance to control t senate. >> it's i mean it's huge advantage of having the model, as the modeleeps us in check. forces you to take a step a ba take a long view. calm down. you know it's very easy in the news cycle to get wrapped up in themgs. >> i rr like, being pretty shocked by that, and thatnd crossed a linehinking that the way the media covered that was inapprop you know a big part of what 538 does, a big core part of like what we're known for is-- is debunking media narratives that are overblown or overdramatic or overwrought or whether there is groupthink around something and typically like in an election campaign that gets worse and worse and worse, things that make a one point difference in our model, people will talk about them like it is a five atic swing and so it's always like a little bit more--

more even keeled, i think. there are so many things that go down the memory hole. i mean like, who is talkingt abett kavanaugh this week? >> reporter: is there one specific thing you can cite that you would change for the way media covers politics? >> just one?he i would haveedia be smarter about selecting what tool in its journalistic toolkit it's using to answer what question. so in other words the question of who's going to win the house is really a question that's best h data that's just empirically true. looking at the polls, fundraising doing all that in ar systematic way is better at answering that question tn going to allentown, pennsylvania and talking to six deople. now tha is not a good tool d answer other questions you know what will truon health care if he wins a second term.

you know you can't use data to answer that question. >>eporter: the narrative o 2018 is that we are a divided nation. is this reflected in the data? >> yes, yes. >> for sure. although less in some ys than in other elections we have in our forecast a 110 or something congressional districts where we think either party could win. there are 10 or 12 sraces that either party could win out of 35. the times i'll really start to buy into critics of what'spp ing to american democracy will be when people give up and aren't turning out to vote. so this is a very 538 thing, right? america is as divided as ever is like is like mostly true. but i think we kind of instantly are looking for the ways in which it might be slightly not true or might be a little bit exaggerated as a narrative. >> it's pretty true though.

>> thompson: traditionally, election turnout from young american voters is low, esnscially in off term elect like the one we're about to have. in 2014, for example, fewer than 20% came to the polls, the. lowest rate ev that may be about to change. a recent sdy from harvard university's kennedy school of government found that 40% of voters under 30 plan to turn out this year. how that plays out in utah, which census data show to have the youngestopulation in the country, remains to be seen, but with hot buttoballot initiatives and a heated d ngressional race, the state's youthful voters coay a pivotal role. correspondent liz adeola of member station kued in salt lake city has our report.

>> reporter: university of utah freshman sheely edwards has logged many a mile, walking the sidewalks this campaign season. >> i've been doing canvassing. i've been doing phone calls and sending text messages. reporter: at 18, edwards serves as an intern for the ben mcadams campaign. mcadams is running a tight race in the 4th congressional district against republican incumbent mia love, who is backed by mitt romney. rit is the most contentioe on the utah midterm election ballot and even has some people wondering if the beehive state will turn blue and ifwi millennial help tip the scales. >> i think there is a huge stigma. a misconception around the fact that your vote doesn't count. whereas in local elections of lyurse it counts significa especially in states that are concerned about switfrom red to blue or blue to red or vice versa. it all comes down to your local elections. >> reporter: days before the election, prospective voters sit here at the hinckleytute of politics located on the campus of the university of utah. >> it is terrific to have the younger generation and older generation coming together today to share interest on important

public policy. >> reporte they are also here to find answers bere they vote on key issues. >> mass killings of concertgoers in las vegas nevada and high school students in parkland flida have brought gun violence back as a primary issue in our political life. >> reporter: edwards says her political life was just beginning last spring when tragedy struck at parkland. she lived in maryland at the w time a drawn to march with thousands of student activists in the march for our lives rally in d.c. i asked her if there is stillmo momentum in thment. >> i hope that, that eney will then translate to them voting. i know a lot of them already have. but yeah, i think it just, it's that cnection i think between seeing involvement in politics as a solution to a lot of the problems that they seed them. >> reporter: 2year-old university of utah graduate student lexi kaili sees it too. >> you know, i've personally seen groups that i didn't think

would be interested in voting really step up to the plate and say, you know i've already mailed in my ballot because i understand the importance. a >> reporteecent survey of 18 to 29-year-olds by the institute of politics at harvard's kennedy school found that 40% sd they are more kely to vote compared to 2010 and 2014. aunda peterson is chair of t emerging leaders institute, a group that hopes to get more millennials involved in the political process. >> we are hopingo be shockingly surprised and that we'll see a big influx of people actually going to e ballot box and showing we have a voice, we have an opinion, and we can express it. >> i don't think there's any question that concern or enthusiasm depending upon yourow personal philosophy about what's going on in washington,ul partly presidential politics is a very big motivator. >> reporter: there are other otsues on utah's ballot that have stirred youngs to action. proposition 2, a citizen

initiative to legalize medical marijuana and proposition 4 which would establish a non- partisan redistricng committee. w enthusiastically support proposition 4. >> reporter: sheryl allen, a former utah republican representativeow volunteers with the utah citizens council, a non-partisan group made up of retirees with significant experience in publicolicy. >> i think if they understandsu the and how it can affect tieir future, that that's a key to getting them ted. >> reporter: allen believes proposition 4 would prevent gerrymandering andive a voice to millennials who feel silenced. >> i think especialleswhen your retatives don't look like you. th're not as diverse as ou population, they're not even near the ages of a lot of millennials that can also really make people fe like they're not going to respond to their needs or their wants. >> reporter: most agree that anapathy isn't the answer that forums and programs like this one working to engage

millennials in the political process are. >> just trying to educate vote about each ballot initiative and there's a lot of them, it's a big ballot. >> your mailboxes are filling up i'm sure and your phone is ringing off the hook. so don't forget to vote. >> reporter: this year, 27 utahn es, more than ever before, can vote by mail. and so far, more than 33% of the state's nearly 1.4 million eligible voters have cast their ballot ahead of the election. >> part of democracy is showing up. and just hopg that momentum eps it going and that they want to actually be a part of the process in the system. i>> one of the reasons th ended up actuay coming out to utah was cause i felt like there was something really special about utah's local politics and people just really want to do the right thing by and they want to be able to improve the lives of other peop. ey want to be able to have that positive impact. and i think that really made mom excited to binvolved in utah politics. >> this is pbs newshour weekend, sunday.

>> thompson: middle and high school student journalists from pbs newshour student reporting labs have been capturing how teenfeel about voting and th upcoming midterm elections. students i28 states conducted over 300 interviews. here's a look at what issuesmire most on ths of youth in this election. >> a lot of midterm elections are going to be facingike education budgets which are again relevant because i'm sll in public education and the school teacher walkout did affect us. >> i've known many people who i talked to who are very stuck on both sides. l peopleance, gun cont think that it should be controlled but they don't think it should be controlled so much that they lose all their weapons.s >> gun lfinitely need to be reevaluated. not necessarily banning guns but there definitely needs to be a change in the policies whether ite like more background

checks, not allowing people with mental issues that have been diagnosed to obtain guns, and i >> i'm not very political, but one thing i'm very passionate about is pro-life. >> if the mocrats win then they will be able to block a lot of measures that have been anti- immigrant and anti-muslim and both of those would affect me. >> immigration is the important izsue. and the most polg issue. lo i feel like a specific issue that is moving me is daca. because i am an international student. i have beehere for two years >> people are still accepting of the l.g.b.t.q. cmunity or our races like, "oh you're not the certain race, so how are we going to accept you in this job," or something. i feel like inequality is still a big thing.

>> thompson: and finally tonight, one more reminder that there is a ltu at stake this day-- every member of the house of representatives, 33 senatest seats, 3e governors, and thousands of local races are on the ballot. pbs newshour will have special coverage all that night, beginning at 8:00 p.m. eastern, 5:00 p.m. pacific. that's all for this edition ee pbs newshournd. i'm megan thompson. thanks for watching. have a good night. captioning sponsored by wnet captioned by media access group at wgbh access.wgbh.org >> pbs newshour weekend is made possible by: bernard and irene schwartz. sue and edgar wachenheim iii.

seton melvin. the cheryl and philip milstein family. dr. p. roy vagelos and diana t. vagelos. the j.p.b. foundation. rosalind p. walter. barbara hope zuckerberg. corporate funding is provided by mutual of america-- designing customized individual and group retirement products. that's why we're yournt retireompany. additional support has been provided by: and by the corporation for public broadcasting, and by contributions to your pbs station from viewers like you. thank you.

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