ts is nightlyusiness report with bill griffeth and mpe herera. stae after the bulls enjoyed a record thousand point day yesterday they raced to the rescue today wiping out a 600 fint loss in theal hour. active or passive. in times of extremela lity, which is the best path for investors? and tech forecast. the group that led the market higher has taken a beang the past few months. what might be in store for the sector in 2019? all that and more tonight on "nightly business report" for in thursday, december the 27th. and we do y bid good evening, everybody and welcome. sue has the night off. boy, it was a comeback for the ages on wall street today. following yesterday's record

thousand-plus point gain for the dow, stocks fell first thing this morning in part on reports that president trump was thinking about an executive order banning u.s.es compa from using equipment built by chines firms huawei and zte. you sprinkle in a dropn consumer confidence and you had a rest fee for selloff whichha much of the day. the dow hit the low of the session a little after 00 p.m.arian time when down more than 600 points. ut then the epic late day reversal and the buyers filed piled on in the last hour. at thesind of the s all three indexes higher. the dowen a the nasdaq staged the biggest comebacks in a decade for the s&p it was the biggest in 8 years. all leading to the best two-day lly for indexes on a percentage basis in more than three yeame. stats again. here are the final numbers, though. the it would up 260 points back abe ,000. the nasdaq climbed by 25.

the s&p added 21. and as bob pisani tells us now, investors should be keeping an eye on january. i >> the an old saying on wall street as goes january so goes the year that's the january seasonal gauge. according to the sck trader almanac is registered nine errs and accurate roughly 75% of the time but in a yr when old saws are not working this may not be true. january saw a gain of 15% and the s&p is down so far. regardless interest for this coming january remains because every down january on the s&p sincet 1950 with exception has precede add new or extended bear market or flat mark for the year or at the least a 10% correction. now the recent history of the january gauge has been a bit mixed. january of 2008 was the worst.

butdown januarys in 2009, 2010 and 2014 it not produce negative years though they foretell correction. that part was right. with thetorm track record and so much market confusion around the economic risks like china and tariffs and the rate heit risk and theedal reserve and political risk in washington it's a little won remembers eager to get out of december into january. even if january proves to be down month. it's a bright side. according to the aanac it's followed by substantial declines averaging roughly 13% providing excellent buying opportunities in later years. well, that's aay goodo look at it for "nightly business report" bob pisani at the northboundantock ex. >> one investment strategy that usually occur this is time of year is tax loss sanling. some of that may have o contributed t the markets end of year swoon. leslie. picker explai >> coinciding with the holiday season is what's called the

horvatining season. when investors look for losing positioning in the portfolio and gll or harvest them to reduce taxes on capitalns from other investments. it's called tax selling or taxl selling a common phenomenon at the end of every year but particularly this year because the are substantial losses to harvest, even with yesterday's rally west december'srf mance in the s&p has been abysmal. it's difficult to know what portion of the strl jf can be uted to the tax loss selling but it feeds on itself. the more people selling in the market for tax purposes, the more exacerbated the market declines become. experts say i d an year this is a more popular tactic giving little excuse tock get s with tax bills for capital gains which is about 23.8%. one adviser says investors should be paying as mnth atn to tax plansing at the end of theier as they are to day to day market swings. >> remember, the key to all tax planning is always pay taxes at

the lowest rates, which is right now -- like buying saying buy low and sell highhat's good one too. >> the deadline for to harvest losses is december 31st. the question i whether that puts additional pressure on the market in the last two trading days. for "nightly business report," le >> certainly the big swings in the market have made for a bumpy ride for individualto inv. raising the question again we raise tonight. should you be an active investor or passive investor in this volatile market? joining us once again todd rosen booth director of etf exchange traded fund and mutual research for cfra research which offers investment sategies to institutional investors. todd, good to see you, welcome back. >> thanks, bill. >> exchange traded funds, very popular now. they came o age during the great bull market we have been in the past ten o yearsso. but it was easy to get into those because the market was

usually going up. now that we are stumblingere a good degree, why not think about the active live managed funds of some kind. >> well you certainly may want to do aive management but the track record for active managers in 2018 has not been strong. s that far we have seen active large cap funds under perform the broader s&p 500 index. and thus far in the fourth quarter they essentially lost as much as the s&p 500. s you couldther w not only just own the s&p through various index-based products butlso reduce the risk profile of your portfolio if you are concerned about the late volatility. >> generally speaking, the -- the active managers have underperformed as the market was going higher though. but as youo lower the index funds, the exchange traded funds have no place to go. the e either in them a market goes lower or you have to get out of them to preserve your pital. with an active manager their job is to try and preserve your capital, isn't it.

>> it is their job. unfortunately sometimes they are successful and outperforming and pulling chips off theta e. and sometimes they're not. and this year they've really done an aerrage jobs the index. and part of the reason that is because that high fee gnaw pay for active management. so most passive and etf-based products can cause considerably less if you lose less on they wy down paying more to the manager, that's a good thing for investors. >> now, i know that there are exchangeraded funds and infect index funds that make money when the market goes niece are inverse relationship kinds of funds. aren't those a little riskier for the average investor? >> they are. so, again, b you areting the market is going to go lower. for the make more sense archl investor is to focus on lower risk funds. so lower volatility strategies tide to the s&p 500, invesco offers one svlp is the ticker.

usmv. up get long equity exposure but focustng on the l risky stocks within the index. and actually you're down than you would be not only in the fourth quarter but also this year ung those strategies. >> once again, todd with cfra research. thanks. >> thank you. >> in the meantime the u.s. oil market has had wildwings this year. prices have fallen 40% since it hi a 4-year high in october. has oil to some degre become a proxy for the global economy? and is it the key to all of the market volatilit we've been seeing lately? joining us oncegain tonight john, the founding partner of again capital. we have a slowdown in some parts of the world economy in parts of the europe, parts of asia. and o prices have come down. i know you are seeing a lot of pumping in saudi arand elsewhere. but how much of it is a slowdown well?and as >> it's definitely part of it, bill. it's been a part of it.

crude oil has been most affected i think of all the asset classes by the trade war between the u.s. and china. to to c the extentna slows down in the least it's the key demand center for the oil market for the oil industry. to the extent consumption there takes any kind of a hit, it's a bad sign for oil. and oil is the first asset to evidence t global slowing out there, because it has been so necessary for oil demand growth to maintain even the prices that we have ien at. >> fact, jim cramer has said if you want to know where the equity market volatility is going watch the oil markets first. what do you think? blame oilople like to for all the world's islass as we have seen over the years. but there is no doubt about it. again, part of it is a supply situation. thige is a reaction by russia and saudi arabia earlier earlier ner sanctions this year. but we watch a lot of macroeconomicditeners my shop and we have seen them steadily turn down more quickly on an international basis. and againer the itional

field is where the oil consumption equat rests. india has toned down. the rising dollar has all the economies. they're not getting the price wraek we get because when thell goes down they have to translate their currency into ollars to buy the oil and e up paying as high if not higher than we have seen all year. >> now, the last time you were with us y were saying that $42 could be a pretty strong support level. we have come close to that here. is that still a support level for you for the price of west texas intermediate crowd in the u.s. >> i like to joke in times like that it's close enough for government work. >> okay. >> i think the double bottom is in. this is a 16-month low process if you pull out the chart and look this is somhing chartists in particular key off of. it held up yesterday. the day after christmas. and. >> ght. >> and we have taken another run at it somewhat today back o.r i think that should be it. setting us up now for think ability in oil prices looking forward for the 2019 >> all right.

keep an eye on thats well. thank you as always. coming up, for a long time technology led the stock market ender but the year did not well for that group. what can we expect in 2019? one expert weighs in. it was day six of the partial government shutdown today andhe senate brieflily came back into session. at it still appears that negotiations at a stand still pup once again ylan mui joins from us washington with not much news, i guess. i mean it's -- how much longer do ynk the shutdown last sns what's the census there in washington. >> now it looks like the shutdown will almost certainly last into 2019.

as youme ioned, the senate opened for business just briefly about four minutes andhen it adjourned until january 3rd before it will be in regular ga session. the same true for the house. what that means is no votes are expected until the newongress takes over. and so this is essentially this current session o congress throwing up its hands at the hope of achieving any typ of bill to reopen the government and ensuring that the next group of lawmakers will have to take this up once the new session begins. and when that happens, assuming that the president holds fast on his request for $ billion e border wall, what is there that the democratl offer him to get this negotiation off the dime? >> wellemocrats say they are not going to offer him any single dollar for that border ll. and that is why we are at this impasse right now. injury the democratselieve what they can offer is reopening the government. that's sething that nancy pelosi said she will take up if

she becomes house speaker on january 3rd. she will bng up a so-called clean short-term spending bill to get the government open gwen. but right now the president away t seem to be backing at all from his demands for border wall money. we saw him tweeting just later this afternoon saying that democrats are playings polit here. saying that democrats just want to ensure that the republicans can't carry forth the agenda don't want to give republicans a win. he said 2020, i'm assuminghat was a reference to the presidential election. and not to how long the government shutdown might last. >> let's hope not. ylan mui in washington. once gep. thanks ylan. see you later. plenty of high profile democrats are talking about running for president in 2020. excuse me. joe biden. elizabeth warren. bernie sanders among them of course. bu so far only one that would be outgoing congressman john laney of maryland has gotten a head start and launched ha 2020 campaign. no t he may have spent last

six years in the house of representatives but he does come from the world of american business. after cofounding pair of companies which went public. john harwood sat down with delaney to talk aboutg his shot candidacy and origin during his years as an entrepreneur. >> our companies were growing communityor the loc bank but weren't big enough to be served by the big banks. so i built a business to target just that part of the market. it became a goodized company. we ended up financing 5,000 companies. i took it public. i ran it until i tried for congress. i spent most of my career helping small businesses get tca tal they need to grow. hire people. and you know pursue dreams. >> what have you learned in the six years that you've been in the congress that makes you think that individually as a person you're ready to be prwiident. >> g up in a blue collar family i lived the american greem which is so central to who

we are as a nation. i was an, entreprene started the businesses from scratch. my dad didn't give me money to starm they didn't have any. and i think it's incredibly important that we have a president that understands how the priyte economy reallorks and knows how to position the country to be successful. but i've also now. >> you think we have a president now o understands howhe economy works. >> listen i don't think the president -- president trump -- i don't thinkis a business leader. i think he was a business promoter. i know what i did as a business leader. created jbs. i paid all my bills. i innovated. i hires the best and the brightest. i made sure that every relationship i had was as good as possiblend thateople wanted to do business with me again. i don't think herings a business person headset. >> do you want to be known as pro business democrat. >> i'm a pro jobs democrat. if you want to be pro jobs, you to some president extent have to bero business because business creates all the jobs in this country, right. so i think abo kind of this notion of capitalism and trying to make it mor juft and

inclusive over times. >> do you think that the currenl le of regulation of wall street and the american business isad uate? >> i think in some ways it is and in some ways it ie't. have done enough to deal with what's happening with carbon leading to climate change? absolutely not. >> what do you make ever the big magi ratns in financial markets the last couple weeks or months. >> i don't reedoo much in it the markets go up and down because of how people think about the future and how things ar priced. i look more at what's happening to people. last year the fedal reserve id half our country if presented with a $500 surprise expense meaning they wake up, something happens to the the house, or their health, their health care and they need $500 they don't have the savings or the otmar capacity on thear credit half the country. that to me is more worrime statistic than what's happening with the stock market. >> after 2020 when youo hope be president, what are the two

or three mos urgent things for democrat sees today. >> instead of cutting the corporate tax raise if you cut it to 35 which is what the business community asked for you could have ad trillioraz bilk bill. >> you'd like to the tax rate up. >> as part of a fraz program absolutely. >> one reason delaney early is he realizes he will not have the field to himself much longer. announcements for many democrats are expected early in the new year. by the way, for the entire interview with john delaney, you can go to our website at nbr.com. apple may be goingnd high in india. and that's where we begin focus.'s market right erps reports that apple supplier fox conmay stort making higher end iphones like the flagship iphone x family in india starting in 2019 it's the first time fox conmade those phones in the country in. elsewherejd.com is reported

launching an extensive revamp of its operation attention. the "wall street journal" says the company is splaning to split th jd mall into three business departments citing internal documents. shares were up 3 peppers in the company to 21.70 in the trade. jp morgan agreedo pay as the 135 milliono settle claims that it improperly handled transactions involving foreign company shares. any say the transactions occurred bween 2011 and 2015. for its part jp morgan says it's pleased to have resolved the matter related to industry practice the companyry volun ended a few years ago. jpga mshares rose 1% today to $97.04. in the meantime communications products maker plan plan tron s paying to settle foreign bribery allegations vog it's polycome unit. the alleged violations occurred prior to acquisition of polycome

earlier this year and before a transaction that took polycom two years ago. plan tronel iks to 32 p process 3 process. visa buying is earth port for $250 million. earth port specializes in inteational transactions f banks and businesses. visa was up me than a percent to close at 132.01. ciand bostontific has exercised its option to purchase the remaining shares of hearty surgevice maker. boston scientific had originally taken a $$90 million stake in january with an option to buy the remaining shares for $$325 million. shares gained better than 2%o 34.48. a rough year for the biggest names in technology. that goes without saying. the sector ledhearket you higher for several years but taken a brutal beating the past few months.

can we expect more of the same in 2019 in joining us tonight, paul meeks, the lead portfolio manager for the wire fund. paul good to see you thanks for joining us tonight. >> good evening, bill. >> fst of all, why do you think we have seen such weakness for technology lately? and do you see it happening more in the new year again? >> so i'll do the second part first. >> okay. >> i think technology stocks may trough. i don't know exactly when, bill. but somewhere in the beginning of 2019. i would expect onc get to a year from now, december 27t sof 2019, th will be having a pretty solid year. and tech if it's not the top sector among the 11 performers tfl be close do it. so i am expecting maybe it gets a little bit worse before it gets better. but i'm expecting some better tidings for tech as we lookut in next year with particularly the second half. >> but are we looking at a

slowdown in demand. that seems to be the problem foa apple,ot of the chip makers out there, that there is a slowdown overall in demand for those products. that what you see here? >> there clearly is aner ventory situation of a variety of semi conductors. and of couron semictors and semi conductor capital areas nt, bill are big within tech. and of course tech drives the whole ecomy. what happens, i believe, is not necessarily pro longed poor demand but once we winnow down this inventory and i'm thinking about the summertime frame, we should be in a better position wherand is equivalent to supply and we will be pasthe worst of the problems in semi conductor and thus the tech se yor. >> i kno're not quite ready to start boying at this point. but when you do you are going ao lo some of those chip companies, aren't you? sir.s, one of the things that is very

interesting is the semi conductor and semi conductor capital equipment companies are very cyclical. so they have led this move and any will lead the move back up. and so some of the are coiled springs for a rebound as i said within a couple of quarter. i like micron. ticker symbol m over the long term. n individual yup nvd. . an x pichlt p service of process advanced microdevices amd i think they all do well in 2019. >> i've joked and very quickly, the last few guests we have had love apple. do you love apple yet? >> t you know,nk apple becomes more interesting at out 140 or so. so a little bit further down. >> okay. >> frankly at that point i it in the high dividend portfolio. i don't think it deserves to be in a growthy tech okrtfolio. >>. >> not now and probably not in the future. >> paul meeks with the wireless ewfund. happy year. thanks for joining us. >> thanks, bill.

>> speak of tech up nt a new technology hoping to breakthrough in the world of home fitness. could it be the end of the line for sears? cnbc is reporting ton that the 125-year-old department store chain might be fced to liquid eight if no bids come in to buy the company by tomorrow.ay cnbc sears best chance of survival is a 4.5 blion proposal from it's chairman ed y lampert to buy the company out n ofuptcy through his hedge fund esl investments.gh althhe network says it's the only party offering to buy all of it. but as of today lampert hadn't submitted the bid or come up with financing. finally tonight as we approach the end of theier, thoughts are generaurned to resolves of

one of the most popular is getting in shape. well now t you canin at home like an athlete thanks to a new technology attracting some big money. the eric chemy takes a look. >> it may look like like a mirror but this mirror could change the way you look. a mirrorith a built in video screen that instructors leading exercise classes. >> we are going to start off with lungs. step theight foot back touch >> the a former professional baflt that. she says theil the an hour sir catching on among professional athletes. >> they are use going for off season training and exploring types of fitness they might not do in public setting. you have baseball players taking a yoga class. >> the product costs $1500 up front plus unlimited subscriptionor classes. it's a similar model to the poleton bikes. . clear it, boxing strength,

stretch and yoga. another option in the $83 billion-dollar perrier global fitness centrally. athletic like an elite marathon runner balk pregnancy who needs to prepare at home for the upcoming olympic trial. >> refreshing to goi but you need to maintain core and strength. so that you can do at ene conce of the home and don't need the gym membershipee >> any pro thmts as one dimension of the products. >> we have been in contact with a handful of others about basing the mirror into the training facilities. i think everyone is excited about the prospect of connecting thmts to trainers outside the geoography. >> a fun way to squeeze in the morning work out and get my heart beat up. >> we didn't build the mirror as mcall for people to cancel the gymbership but we are finding increasingly the urs

are better able to get a more convenient lower cost option via the mirror than through the studios. >> for nightly business report, eric chemy. we need to get him a workout outfit of some kind. one more wall street ouook. the dow down but finished up 260. sdaq up 25. s&p up 21 points big day for the day ands see what happ tomorrow. that isne "nightly busiss report" for tonight. i'm bill griffeth. have a great evening everybody. see you tomorrow.

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