this is "nightly business report" with a bill griffeth sue herera. and we do bid you good evening, everybody. andpy hew year. >> absolutely. >> 2019 already. it's the time of year whenus lly it's filled with promise. >> that's right. but for investors it's also filled with questions about the, markhe economy and your money. so tonight we'll try and provide answers for you by looking into the future as best we can. >> and we begin tonight with the stock market. and some k things to watch in the months ahead here is bob pisani. >> cash, ipos and maybe another amazon deal. three predictions for 2019. first cash offers competitive

return kpards to stocks and bonds. you know it started this year suddenly you could get 2% on a bank cd b l flatger term rates and global growth slowdown combine to make c h a competitive investment for the first time in a decade. it's like a big unicorn like uber lyft and pinteresp will have mother valuation than they wanted. there is a potential of new ipos coming in 2009. we could come close to the record year of 2000 when close to $100 billion was raised.ig but snificant haircuts up to 20% will likely be required to get my of the deals done. finally, let's have fun here. the big m and a deal in 2019. amazon buys target. gene munster floated in idea a year ago. but it's more compelling since then. taazesen up 30 process% this year. et is down. target as has a $34 billion-dollar market cap n three times the size of the 13 billion-dollar whole foods deal. bute the cha to get access to a huge retailer where amazon can

perfect electronic checkout and significantly cut tget's $350,000 employees and then turn target into a turbo charged retailer. that's a chance amazon may not pass up. for nightly business report, i'm possible bob pisani at the new york stock exchange. >> it's important to discuss the outlook forconomy when talking about the stock market which experts has grown cloud in. steve liesman takes iro here. >> one question dominates the economic outlook for 2009 who has is right? the market which seems to be forecasting a severe slowdown or the federal reserve which sees a modestone. there is data on both sides as theierrue to a close. many business and consumer confidence surveys turned down but the hard data on jobs, economic growth and consumer spending stayed strong. the best prediction takes a lile from both sides. first, look for gdp to slow from above '073% in 2018 closer to 2% or trend next year.

2019 will not bring the recession the markets fear. there is too much stis in the system for that. but it's likely to use to see a slowing of growth as the effects of stimulus wear off second the unemployment should tick down and job growt remain strong for the first half and stabilize as the year moves along. finally the fed finds reasons to hike rates one more time in 2019 and probably launch into an extended period of pause until it feelsde more con in the economic outlook. for nightly business report, steve liesman in washington. certainly onege of the b economic issues of the past year was trade. as ylan mui tells us no you it will likely remainoc a in 2019. >> reporter: trade turmoil t rocked markets in 2018 and you can bit it kins into the new first china deadline drama. u.s. trade representative robert lighthizer leading snoerkss with and the two sides face a march 1st deadline to reach a deal.

at stake u.s. tariffs on $250 billion in chinese goods and retaliation from. china deal or no deal expect pnty of posturing and yes, lots of testy tweets long the along the way. e secondect a rocky road for the new u.s. mexico and canada trade deal. themc will need approval by congss next year. but so far democrats have been g skeptical looor stronger labor and environmental protections. finally bilateral trade deals. look for the trump administration moving forward on bilateral deals with other countries. trade talks with japan and european union may ramp up if they go wl that could put the brake on the threat of new auto tariffs. tht administration could l duties on foreign steel and aluminum. one thing is clear. trump sees tariffs as a way to gain the upper hand in negotiations. for nightly business report, i'm ylan mui, washington. trade and china are te wined which is why developments in the world's

second largest economy are closely watched by investors around the gleb. eunice yoon in ij beijing. >> the trade war dominated market sentime in year. and ubt whether the u.s china work out a trade deal will be a major theme in 2019. the tariffs truce between esident trump and xi expires march 1st. beijing could replace the made in china025 industrial strategy by then addressing washington's criticism and potentially stopping rising tariffs fromou hurti economic growth here. second expect more system stimuluss measu but targeted beige something wary of the dangerous of too much debt. china's economy has been slowing for reasons unrelated to the trade war like a governmen campaign toen rein in financial risk. and finally, investors will be able to buy for kmienz stocks. the government wants foreign money to come in china would lining the shanghai exchange to londs london and the s&p dow jones indices plans to add chinese shares to the global benchmark in september

for nightly business report eunice yoon in beijing. and joining us now to talk aout what may be in store for the econo the stock market in in new year beth alan bovino economist at and john is a strategist at lpl. >> happy new year. >> beth clearly the stock market in december was trying to tell us it expects a slower growth economy in 2019. thinko you >> we do think i guess in agreement with the stock market. we do s - 2018 was a very good year. it was a nice reading probably close to 3%. we think it's slowing inab 2009o e trend looking at 2.3%. we're a bitore optimistic than markets are. but some of the drags that we see as a factor isne we expect to see that fiscal stimulus start to filter out of the system that's a weight on growth. the fed even though the fed indicated they are slowing the pace it means they aro going

raise rates. and that's also a drag on growth. we're going to keep an eye on housing to see what happens there. because we have seen weakness will that continue in 2019. >> all right. >> the last point to make is those trade -- that trade dispute hasn't ended that's another drag for people to worry about. >> right. >> onyou think growth will be sustained through fiscal policy. hebut what about trade issue? how much will that override any kind of fiscal policy initiatis in the new year? >> sure. thank you, sue. i think trade plays big role from a certainty standpoint for businesses, because we can't discount theact that immediate expensing is an amazing incentive for businesses. we saw a 10% business investment in the first half of 2018. base che ground to a halt in the third quarter. so to the degree i'm not even looking for a solution buts long as businesses can see a path toward progress on trade, whether imts elimination off joint ventures, whether transfer of designs if you will, any --

any sort of progress inl businesses will take advantage of the incentives because it comes down to for econllic growth r to continue we need capital investment so we see that improvement in productivity. so you can increase output without the threatening wage i think that's what really concerns policy makers in the latter part of 20 t. i thint's focus on wages in 2019 as well. >> your growth estimate for next year is 2.5 to 2.75%. higher than bh ann and expected return in the stock market is 8% to 10%. that's pretty normal year. given the volatility at thof en 2018, i guess, you're expecting us to go back to normal? >> that's exactly right, bill. we'd have to redefine normal after what we experienced in 2018 wouldn't you agr? but yes we look being at at lpl, focused on earngs and income to help our investors achieve long-term goals. . to the degree that we had

economic growth or so last year, 25% profit growth last year l we'rking for normal returns in economic growth, call it 2.5%. slightly better than trend for the cycle. and even though earnings should be growing in the 6% to 8% range that ear be mindful that is at or slightly above historical averages. the messages we send to investors is that we have record profits from the last year, growing at or slightly above historical averages. yet still discounting the profit growth at interest rates which average so we think that will be positive for investors. >> beth ann,n 2018 we saw as bill mentioned, the volatility. also though shaw a huge downdraft in oil prices. ass we're in t new year, what impact do you think that will have on overall growth? and what impact it might have on the economy? >> well, in terms of the drop in oil prices, well the problem with the oil priss is that when it goes down it usually goes right back up. let's see how that holds.

keeping -- keeping oil provides at around say as thet 50 for w texas crewed for example or maybe $60 that's manageable. good for the big energy sector that we have. but it also is something that's affordable for most households to -- t basically go to the gas pump fill up ando the process ll. that's manageable. that's what we expect for 2019. s course, thi could go wrong with the middle east -- middle east tensioncr sing, that is something that could be a weight on growth. there is a number of shocks that we see that could go wrong this year. one, of course, dopes the fed make a policy mistake? do they either go too fast or too slow causing a problem in the future. >> thright. >> a issue could be indeed, what happens with oil prices. could we seenother spike, say gn0 oh or 110 plus that condition beed and that certainly -- together with the trade dispute that would cause this expansion to take a break. >> all right. beth ann bovina with s and p pch

john lynch with l. happy new year. >> happier. >>. >> you as well. >> the tech and financial sectors are tup of the most influential in the marke here to tell us what's in store are wilfred frost on the banks but we start with josh lipton on techlogy in san francisco. >> reporter:to the secr started off with bang and fell hard on range of worries from trade to rightsing rates. here are three predictions for 2019. one, azmodan's cloud drives consolidation. amon is making new moves in the cloudg introducew server chips and bringing its cloud technologies center.ata that's going to force rivals to react. for example, google's new cloud chief, thomas occur yan may have to buy other companies to catch up. two google makes moves in china. google ceo sundaras pichai w grilled on capitol hill about possible plans for ad centere search engine for that doesn't look likely but

google will try to attract more of china's 80 million internet users with apps, investments and listening deals. three. apple shifts the narrative. apple will begin to build a new case about why it's a smart investment offering new data into metrics ent as yalty and engag it tries to shift investor attention away from unit sales and to its strengths like the faster growing services business. for "nightly business report" i'm josh lipton,fr san cisco. the shake of the u curve credit risk and valueses are the key things tt look ou for to the decide were sentiment towards banks can improve in 2019. first, the shape of the yield curve. banks tend to borrow short and lend long. so a steeper curve creates bigger profits for them. but questions as to whether the ed will keep hiking and still historically low rates in europe and japan have flattened the curve in 2008. will that continue in 2009?cr

second, it risks. whale loan growth has been soft in 2018, there's in the been any rise in credit costs for banks. in suggests themy e may be stronger than some fear. if those risks remain low in early 2019, investorsay regain faith in the economy and bankss third, valuation. banks always trade at a discount to the rest of the s&p 500. the 25-year average is a 75% discount. they are currently trading though at a 60% level compared to the s&p 500 average. yet, they have me profits every quarter in 2018. ifhey do the same in 2019, will they enjoy a higher pe rate sng finally, t one wild cardo keep an eye. politics with aemocratic house of representative could executives be dragged to d.c.fao more grillings about possible past behavior? for nightly business report, i'm wilfred frost in york. and still ahead, t ahead for oil with, and autos.

tahoe who would have guessed e twists and turns in the oil market in 2018. brian sullivan tells us whether investors can expect por of the same in the months to come. >> 2018 was the year oil prices llapsed along wit the stocks in many major oil and gas companies. all as opoke tried to reais power. 2019 could be very different here are some predictions. one. oil prices recover but only by a little. >>ill take time for opec's recently production cut to impact the market. but ultimatelyhe drop in

exports from saudi arabia along with a likely flattening out of u.s. pulductionsupport slightly higher prices. look for oil to be in the high 50s to low 60s per barrel by the fourth of july. two, texas size deal making heats up. the biggest global players know now more than ever scale matters. bigger is better when you have to control costs. look for theexxon, the chevrons and other big players to keep selling the assets they don want and spending to grab up some of the best acreage in america. three, opec gets smaller abthe nopec bill rolls through ngress process after the coletry of qatar c it quits look for iran, iraq iraq or both to realize going their wn way is the way to go. also, a bill being pushed in congress to make oil cartels like opec illegal gained steam and could pass early in the year. if turt happens relationship about the middle east could take a significant tur for "nightly business report" i'm brian sullivan. in the a air oh on the road the new year will bring new

challenges for the auto and airline industries. from slowing sales in the show room to risingumbers taking to want skies. phil lebeau has more on what to look for in 2019. >> reporter: 2019 is expected to be the year auto makers finally see a sizable drop in sales. in fact, many analysts believe the industry will fail to sell s million vehic the u.s. for the first time since 2014. ofwer sales especially sedans means gm appear for restructure their operations. fortunately for the a makers, trucks will remain red hot. especially mid-size versions. two new models, the ford ranger and jeep gladiator will get flent of attention next year. so wil autonomous drive ride share operations. wao will slowl develop service in the phoenix anyarea. and gm subsidiary cruz is expected to launch the robo taxi service in northern california. meanwhile, analysts expect 2019

to be a year where airports and airplanes are more crowded. that's because a recd number of travelers are expected to take a flight, in fa more than a billion people could fly in the u.s. next year. any will p more to pick a seat, change a flight and check a bag. and whil they may com faint aboutling nicol and diamond they are expecd to continue booking trips. why? because the robust economy and strong consumer confidence means more people will look to get away in 2019. and while airlines are adding flights over the next 12 months, industry leaders believe planes will bess packed a ever next year. phil lebeau, "nightly business report," new york. the housing market starts this new year a lot cooler than it was a year ago at this and as diana olick tells you no there are some new trends worth watching. >> 2018 was a rler coaster for residential real estate, home prices erheated mortgage rates

rose a lot and fell a little. and home sales stall. 2019 will see some big changes. first, prices will pull bac afford ability is a bad word in the housing market today. because low supplynd high demand push priced over the top. now supply is rising slowly and the big price jumps shrink. could markets could go negative. build he is could help with affordability if they put up cheap homes pu so far signsre they won because of high cost for land and labor. second mortgage rig rates rice. went up flat f linedl back last month but the trend in 2019 should be higher. with rates passing back over 5% on the 30-year fixed and staying there. and finally rb rents wl rise. all this weakness in home sal means more potential buyers mr. ay put in their rentals.oc pancies are already high, which means rents remain pricey, especialn the sought after urban market. for nightly business report, i'm

diana olick in washington. >> coppi up financial rfrmgss for tfinancial rchlgss for the new ye. . the retail industry has been undergoing tremendous change. and the secer could reshamed once again in 2019. here is courtney reagan. >> reporter: 2018 watts a volatile year for retail stocks and the trend could continue in 2019. tarita uncty .u.s. and china have until march 1st to come to a resolution on strayed. . if no deal tariffs could go up to 25% leading to higher pricers for shoppers.

the largest amounts of food at wal-mart and sams clubav will more cushion to offset the pressure turbfrom tariffs gds. online retailers impatient. online brands spending investing in online operations to catch with amazon. while investors give retailers time to invest and improve. patience is running thin. strong online sales aren't enough. shareholders want to see profitability improve. if it doesn't, retail stocks will take the hit in 2009. third, store closures slow. and 2017 and 2018 retail store closures and bankruptcies hit levels not seen since the financial crisis. st that should ease in 2019. while the bigwath of closures should be over, retailers will still be fighting hard for sales growth as competition is hig than ever and rising interest rates make payments more expensive. for "nightly business report" i'm courtney reagan. and of course the new year is a time for resolutions.

so while thinking about eating better or exercising more, don't forget about yr financial healthy. sharon epperson has more on sticking to t goals in 2019. >> more americans want to get smarter about spending in he new year. fidelity reports nearly one third plan to make a financial resolution in 20. are optimistic too with 42% saying they're in a betteia fina situation than a year ago. >> if the goal is to have morec confidn the financial situation, to sleep better because we ar taking control o our personal finances, the mere act of taking and setting a financial resolution and then over time turning it into a habit has proven to really make people feel better about their situation. >> what resolutions are people king? we went to new york's times square to find out. money. more and to prepare for the rest of my life. >> to be me thrifty with money probably, especially sinceiphis cost a lot. >> just make sure to put stuff

away for the future. >>d yeah, not digging into the savings. ake more money. definitely. >> and to save more. and not spend it on a bunch of little things. >> you don't have to mdre tic changes to the daily life to make the financial resolution a reality. you can take these steps to help you save more. shop around for higher interest rates on you may find a rate topping 2% at an online bank more than 20 times the national average. direct deposit pay into a checking account as well as two or more savings accounts p different goals. and increase the 401(k) or retirement plan contribution by one or two% this year. also, find ways to decreased spending so you don't fall victim to common mistakes that keep people from reaching the savings goals. cut back on dining out. and open that bottle of wine a home. review the credit card bill and isncel any recurring subscription thaou no longer use. splurges ahead for like the summer vacation. start looking for deals now and

put away some funds so you're not still pays that bill next winter.'t also, deep resolutions to yourself. share them with a financial adviser or someone you. tru who is going to encourage you to stick to your goals. for "nightly business report" i'm sharon epperson. with 2019 here it might be a good opportunity to add some new ortfolio.your . our next gecht says his picks are industry leaders with strong balance sheets and cash flow. joined by mike. president of fbb capitalpa ners. nice to see you welcome, mike happy new year. >> thank for having me here. >> a lot of the stocks have been beaten up in 2018. maybe you have good entry points. the first stock a good example. apple why do you like it. it crossed the trillion dollar threshold in 2018. now it's 75% of tha value. so people are getting 25% off. and not a whole lot has changed with the story. estimates for 2019 have come in a bit.

growth is expecte to slow a little bit next year compared to 2018. but we have known that for a while. and it's still growth. and the company is paying a nice dividend. it's been shareholder friendly for years. and we think that the dividend is probably going to continue to grow at a double digit clip. we thi apple is it a fine bet trading at ten times earnings where the market is about 14 times. >> another stock saw a correction in 2018, johnson & johnson. in part over concerns about the lawsuits involving the talcum powder whether or not it contains asbestos. you're not worried about the costs. why? >>no, it's such a -- there is so much cash flow the company is generating that even the largest kind of number out ere, which is near $5 billion or so, it's that.ing to be it's under appeal. it's some number below that. and they create operati income of $20 billion a year. and more importantly going forward, the product in question and kind of as a percentage of

sales if they got rid of babyer po altogether that wouldn't impact or impair johnson & johnson outlook. here a good ample of a quarter to date was up 5%. a good defensive name. that news came out now down 15, 15% from where it was a company trading at the market multiple that's defense nef nature. >> finally cvx hasoo balance sheet. >> if there is a market uglier in the fourth quarter than the stock misdemeanor market it was energy. go with bestf breed. chevron has the best assets to work with. and the capital expenditures, all of that ran through a few years ago. so they're poised to do well. strong cash flow. they're movin oobt a little bit with energy but you get a 4% dividend in an environment anwar th 10-year 2.75 or 2.8.

not bad. >> mike, thanks so much. >> thanks for having me. >> mike with fbb capital ne pa. thank you for watching this special edition of "nightly business report." happy new year everybody. i'm sue herera. >> i'm bill griffeth and still writing 2018 on my checks. have a great evening. see you tomorrow.

>> this is "bbc world news america." funding of this presentation is made possible by the freeman foundation, f and kovlndation, pursuing solutions for america's neglected need and now, "bbc world news." ben: hello, this is "bbc world news." i am ben bland. our tostories -- brazil has a new president.

the right-wi j