>> announcer: this is "nightly business report" with bill gr china in foans. industrial bellwether and a technology giant cut their outlooks, both blaming the d world's sec largest economy. big week fromng ear to the fed to the jobs report. investors will be contending with a number of issues that could affect their investments. and ready, set, file. tax filing season starts toda and there are some key changes to keep in mind. those stories and much more tonight on "nightly business report" for this monday, january the 28 and we do bid you a good evening, everybody, an welcome. sue is off tonight. investors were hit with a rprise 1, 2 punch first thing

this morning. not exact loly a pleasant way t start what is going to be a very busy week. caterpillar and nvidia both warned business is not going as planned at added to the ongoing concerns about a slowing global economy a its potential impact on corporate profits. here are today's final numbers that we ha a. the dow feut 208 points, was down 400. closed at24,528. the nasdaq dropped by 79. the s&p was down et20. but begin with isterpillar, which reported its biggest earnings in about a decade. the world's largest heavy equipment maker said it was hit by softening demand in china, and that hit the stock, which fell 9% in today's trading. morgan brennan has more on why caterpillar cratered. >> reporter: it was an ugly quarter for caterpillar and the outlook isn't much better. for 2019 the maker of earth-moving machinery projected profit and sales that will grow, but grow less than analysts had

expected. on the earnings call the ceo and chairman discussed the impact of slowing global growth coupled with higher manufacturing costs. >> we kept very close control ot you saw the costs in the fourth quarter were actually less than they were in the fourth quarter of 2017. i dod you that we are guiding to a sales -- a modest salesas inc in 2019 so we are not guiding to a sales decrea. having saithat, we'll closely monitor costs and always be ready for whatever the market sends us. >> reporter: caterpillar which comprises 10% of caterpillar sales was sharply in focus. the company now expects that market to be flat this year, even a other partsf the asia-pacific region grow. latin arica also remains weak and political uncertainties in europe. analysts say there is more

uncertaintyuthat caterpill caterps miss had more to do with company-specificthssues than an end to the cycle of growing demand for machiner >> i did lower my price target to $172. that was a multiple lower. it would represent midcycle so i think after today we have toe recognhat maybe 2019 is post mid-cycle, so we still do not believe '19 is the peak where caterpillar is currently trading. >> reporter: as for higher costs. cateillar blames more expensive metal, thanks in part to tariffs and a tight freight market and has been raising prices tooffset them. nonetheless, today's report sent sh wes sliding andh it the stocks of other bellwethers, as well as the dow overall. fornightly business report," i'm morgan brennan. and now to nvidia, whichar alsod of weakness in china. the semi conductor company said that quarterly revenue will fall

short of expectations. it is just the latest company to blaming slumping sales on a slowdown in the world's second largest economy.se that c nvidia shares to slump nearly 14% in today's session. se detailsn has t for us. >> it's become a common theme this earnings season. tech compani warning investors that a weakening chinese economy is impacting their results. the latest victim is nvidia. the chip maker ss it now sees weaker-than-expected sales from its gamin division due to weakening macroeconomic conditions, especiall china. the fourth quarter was an tr rdinary, usually turbulent and disappointing quarter, saida nv founder and ceo. the company also reported challenges in its business of elling chips used in data centers, saying that a number of deals in its forecast didn't ose in the last month of the

quarter, as customers became ca more ious. other companies have recently called out china as a problem o. earlier this month when apple cut revenueguidance, it highlighted the challenge of a slowin chine economy, so did intel. even before today, nvidia talkr had been un pressure, in part due to what executives at the company called a crypto haover. people used its graphics cards to perform the complicatg computork needed to accumulate crypto currencies. but as those digital currencies drop in value, demand for those products dried up, leaving the company with excessin ventory. still, some see better timesnv ahead foia. >> i do think we'll see momentum return with nvidia i buts a second half story. >> in individual ceo says th m is strong.

est investors a skeptical. nvidia reportsts on february 14th. i'm josh lipton, san francisco. >> as it happens, this will be the busiest week of corporateea ings for this cycle. not only are investors bracing for that wave of results but there will also be important economic reports released as well. bob pisani looks at the issues that could shape the market in the days stocks tumbled to kick off a very busy week. the dow had fallen 400 points but managed to clo well off of the session lows. caterpillar alone was responsible for at least a quarter dow's drop, but the broader market's decline was very modest given all the negative headlines out there. many investors think the stock market is loo for an excuse to go higher. we're right in the thick of earnin season now and the market is telling us three issues really matter. first, the federal reserve meets tomorrow for the first time this year. the question is how passive or dovish will the fed and

bankers be. that's number one. second, the u.s. will meet wh a high-level trade delegation from cna this week. how positive will the outcome of those negotiations be? and finally, how much slower will global growt get? the message from nvidia and caterpillar is pretty clear. earnings are still too optimistic in the face of weaker global growth, particularly in china, and earnings estimates for 2019 need to come down more. that's the message. this is important because the big debate is whether we'll see an earnings recession this year. that would be two straight quarters of negative earnings growth in the s&p 500. first quarter earnings growth is now down to below 2%, and the second quarter earnings are looking only a little bit better so far. big debate right now. for "nightly busii'ss report," bob pisani at the ne. so toe review,ve a slew of earnings. the fed meeting is this week. a resumption of trade talks with ina and a big monthly jobs report out on friday.

quite a week, right? coming up, let's talk with art hogan, chief market strategist with national securities. where do we begin here? let's start with rnings. it doesn't get any bigger than the companies reporting, among them facebook, apple, maamazon d microsoft. what are your expectations ts week, art? >> it's interesting that we spent the month in earnings season aot about 25% reported and 24% will report this week. it's very busy week. i think on balance earnings will be fine for the frth quarter. we'll see between 15% and 20% earnings growth on 6% to revenue growth. that's fine. but the guidance is the hard piece. we had a government that was shut down 35 days and there's no end in sight for the china trade war. i think guidance is the hard part. i don't know how reticent i would be about how 2019 looks. >> the federal reserve meeting, they're not expected to raira s this time around, but it

will be interesting to hear what clues they can provide the rest of the year. >> "the wall street journal" had a story they might slow down the shrinkage of the balance sheet. i think they talk aut it every meeting but it's never part of the minutes. i think they continue to be data dependent. i think they're on hold most of this year unless and until we can get the china trade war behind us. i think that's where they stand. we'll probably hearore about that in the q & a. >> and by the way, some of those economic reports they depend won't be out this week. they're delayed because of the government shutdown, so they might be in the dars as much we are. >> it's a tricky situation. >> the china trade talks, there have been times the market responded violently to reports either positive or they are set to resume again this week. what are your expectations? >>duch a g point, bill. if somebody on the hawkish side hashi som to say, the market

will not react well. i think wee we're a lot further alonro in thess and i think both sides want to do something oner rather than later. i think they're feeling the pain from this so my guess is we hear something constructive if not this week by the end of the quarter. >> quickly, art, your expectations for jobs on friday. >> it's going to be hard to put any credibility in this number. we had a blockbuster number last month. remember, 311,000. estimates were 170. i wouldn't be surprisedf we were something less than 200 but more than 150, so i would sayim the estates for 170 are right in the sweet spot. >> art hogan with national securities. always good to see you. thanks for joining us tonight. >> thanks, bill. sewhere, today's market decline notwithstanding, stocks have experienced aharp recovery over the past month but that's not necessarilyg alleviatnvestor nervousness. mike santoli measures the mood of the market. >> the stock market's strong start to the year has calmed the

most extreme fears from december that a recession was on the horizon and a bear market under way. even with the broad stock indexes up morhan 10% in a bit over four weeks, the investor mood remains cautious and watchful rather than outright enthusiastic about the ecomy and the market. investors have continued to pulf monem equity funds in the early weeks of 2019 despite typical tendency to add to investment at the start of a year big institutional funds bruised in the final months of last year have likewise been hesitant to re-enter the equity markets fully, accorng to strategists who track the supply and demand for stocks. and surveys have shifted from neutral up from extreme pessimism but are far from outright optimism. because this is to be expected given theet ma recent performance and confusing news flow. the s&p 500 is 10% belowemts septber peak and is off almost that much from 12 months ago. the economicn numbers have b

mixed with strong employment data offset by softer industrial demand. corporate earllngs are s expected to be up slightly this year, but estimates are nowpi sl uncomfortably close to the flat line. and of course the long government shutdown and withtled trade standoff china are complicating the jobs of economic forecasters and ceoh alike as b work to decipher signals about the durability of theioconomic expa cautious sentiment might not be the worst thing for the market though. when investors are ambivalent towards stock and lightly invested, it could mean pullbacks are less alarming. as the old saying goes, stock prices often climb a wall of worry. itlear that such a wall remains in place after months of dramatic and jarring market tion. for "nightly business report," i'm mike santoli. time for a look at some of today's upgrades and downgrades. we begin with brazil januayabra company which was downgraded from buy to eyhold.

cited the deadly collapse of the company's dams over the weekend. e cause of that is still unclear. price target is now$14 and shares fell 18% to $11.20. amgen was downgraded at evercore isi. the analyst cited patt ncerns and increasing competition for certain drugs. the company reports earnings eomorrow, by the way. shares fell mhan 3% to $191.95. grubhub was upgraded to outperform from neutral at credit suisse. the analyst cited the company's aggressive investments in its delivery network and newnt restauhain partnerships. price target now $130. it's about 60% above of where it closed toesy. shar rose a fraction to $80.99. and credit we ssuisse also upgraded wayfair from outperform to neutral. they cited the blueprint for growth domestically and overseas.

that price target is $130. that stock rose 2% to $104.47. >> still ahead, tax tips for the first filing season under the justice department today charged chinese tech company huawei with fraud, rich atchetip tensions. charges include money laundering, bank and wire fraud and conspiracy. as you know, the cfo was arrested in canada inmb de. the charges lay bare their blatant disregard for the of our country and standard

global business practices. a new report out today says that the partial government shutdo cost our economy a tota of $1 billion, $3 of which will never be covered.th congressional budget office cited the furloughed workers as well as t delay on goods and services and the reduction in aggregate demand. the numbers do not, by the way, incorporate other indirect negative effects like businesses that could not obtain permits or licenses and access toloans. a new survey of business economists show that they mostly believe the economy will not enter a recession the next 12nt but also showed there's less optimism about key business conditions. steve liesman . >> we began a big week for data with an ugly business outlook survey. it was taken during the shutdown and hopefully that i influencedt to the downside. maybe itk will snap b now. the current assessment of sales and profits t had some ofir

biggest drops in the 38-year history of the survey. employnt held up and actually rose a bit, butapital spending plans fellsh ply, hitting their lowest level since the second quarter of 2017. the plans for capital spending the next three months fell beloh level where they were before the tacuts were enacted. 84% of firms say the tax cuts had no effect on spending plans although it is a bit higher for goods producers. 77% sayfs tar have not affected hiring or spending plans. businesses say it'sou still to find workers and few see a recession this year. the big fed decision and adp payroll data is wednesday, jobless claims on thursday and the january employmenteport on friday. they see 170,000 jobs being created. two questions, how much was the economy affected by the

government shutdown? crunchers got into the office today and tell me it's too soon to know wheco themic report will be released. for "nightly business report," i'm steve liesman. guess brings back a former executive to lead that company and that's where we begin tonight's market focus. the chief operating officer will return toecome ceo replacing hir victor herrero. it is in a turn-around because ofco shiftinumer tastes and e-commerce. the stock fell by 14.5% to $19.17. california regulators are reviewing pg&e's reqnst for additional $2 billion in financing for that company's expected bankruptcy. in all, the utility is now seeking $6 billion in borrowing. pg&e faces mounting liabilities' for that st deadly wildfires the last few years and it's wildly expectedo file chapter 11 maybe tomorrow. the stock rose 2% today to

$12.01. whirlpool reported an unexpected in revenue. they cited soft industry demand overall and that sent the stock lowe in initialafter-hours trading. shares finished down a fraction to $124.46. well, it's that time of year again, tax season. the irs started accepting 2018 income tax returns today. and of course this is the first year that everybody will be filing under the new tax laws. senior personal finance correspondent sharon joins us to talk about what you need to know and there's a whole lot out there. there's somelyonfusion obvio about what you're going to need and not need in terms of documentation. what do people believe about the tax cut? >> what's really interesting is what they don't know. a recent surveyame out from nerd wallet looking at what do

peoplenow about the tax cuts and jobs act of 2017 andf half them didn't realize that bill was signed into law in 2017. a quarter of them were unsure what really changed with the new tax law and almost one out of every two people didn't understand how it affected their tax bracket.ba that's py one of the biggest changes, the lowering of income tax rates so that's something tha people should definitely know. >> there are some other key changes, though. >> there are. that increase in the standard deduction is ty. the f that it nearly doubled to $12,000 for individuals, $24,000 for couples, that's signticant. the f that personal and dependent exemptions went away when that was over $4,000 for those who -- each individual who could claim that. itemized deductions have been more limited. that cap on state and local tas of$10,000 is significant, but for some even more th significant i fact that miscellaneous itemized deductions like your tax preparation fees and those unreimbursed job expenses, those have gone away entirely.

and then good news if y kids, if you're filing with a child under 17. that child tax credit has increased and gone up to $2,000 from $1,000 so that's significant as well. f> so what documents do you need, especiallyou're going to itemize? >> well, a lot of people who are going to itemize will have to makeure that they have certain documents in place. your mortgage statement from your bank, ofcourse, the property tax information you get from your muni regardless if you itemize or not, you have to have documentation about any student loan interest if you have that and you try to claim that deduction as well as any child care expenses if you want to claim that credit. you need to have documentation for that as well. >> now, to hadadd to the confus, the shutdown, does this delay this process or not? >> that's what a lot of people wanting to know, when am to get my refund. the irs says 21 days is how long t takes to your refund. if you didn't understand there were tax rates and dyon't change withholding, your payroll may be different than what it should have been and you may not

get the fund that you expected if you get one at all. that may be a bigger d'sl than whappening in washington. the fact that people haven't looked at their pay stub, soeeow they to do that. >> thank you, sharon, very much. sharon epperson joining us tonight. coming up, the companies hoping to score a touchdown during this week's big game. the u.s today imposed sanctions against venezuela's state oil company in an effort to many power that country's opposition leader and to weaken president maduro's government. the actions will block $7 billion in assets and cost that country $11 billion in lost exports over the next year. >> effective immediately, anypu

hases of venezuelan oil by u.s. entities, money will have to go into blocked accounts. now, i've been in touch with many of the refineries. a there is significant amount of oil that's at sea that's already been paid for.th oil will continue to come to the united states. if the people in venezuela want to continue t u sell oil, as long as that money goes into cocked accounts, we'lltinue to take it. otherwise we will not be buying it. >> secretary mnuchin said the sanctions will have a minimal effect on u.s. refiners doing business in that country. natural gas prices fell on a warmer forecast for february. weathers mod show more normal and even warmer than normal temperatures for parts of the u.s. following this week's cold snap. the market has been volate is winter because of on and off concerns about the amount of gas in. shorta and temperature fluctuations. natural the price of gas futures tumbled today. the average price of regular grade gasoline rose 2 cents over the las twoweeks.

according to the lundberg survey, drivers were paying $2.33 a gallon to fill up. following a steady decline the past few months. the highest price in san francisco $3.40. the lowest price, $1.89 i tulsa, oklahoma. and finally tonight, automakers are traditionally big advertisers during the super bowl and this year will be no different but there are some new trends taking shape during what is always the most expensive advertising day of the year. julia boorstin has more.er >> supowl ad time selling for a record $5.25 million per 30-second spot this year. up h ar from last year. >> the price of a super bowl ad has doubled over the past ten years. that stands ionast to premiere primetime television programming, wre the average ice of a commercial because of audience fragmentation and ratings erosion has fallen by 12% over the past decade. >> many of the usual brands are

back. anheuser-busch buying 6.5 minutes of ad time along with five car makers, including kia, audi and mercedes. one new theme, ads targeting women featuring women. serena williams stars in one and olay is running a super bowl atd with sara michelle gellar. and celebrities are a big trend wi at least a dozen stars featured in ads. doritos is pairing the backstreet boys with chance the rapper for its commercial. brands in the big game are looking to maximize their investment by driving the conversation online. they're sharing their tv commercials anden brog their reach by buying ads for them on facebook, twitter and youtube. facebook said during the super bowl over 90% of tv advertisers were also advertising on facebook a youtube taps into that interest as well. >> people on youtube areng tal about the big game, talking

about ads for about a month up to the game and another week or two afterward. by participating with youtube in digital environment, those brands are able to make much more of their spots. >> youtube's ad blitz is a destination for super bowl spots. growing traffic over 60% last year with youtube expecting similar growth this year. >> we' seeingwo major trends. one is advertisers introducing short form teaser ads. trying to build excitement for the big game reveal. second, fo form advertisement. >> one other ad trend companies t shelling out millions for tv ad time are still tapping into excitement about super bowl ads. skittles is producing a 30-minute musical to run on broadway on sunday. it's running ads about what it calls skittles commercial, the broadway musical, but not buying time in the big game. for "nightly business report," i'mn julia boorsn los

angeles. before we go, a final look at the day on wall street. a down day on those earnings warnings. the dow fell 208 points, well off the lows of the session. the nasdaq was down 79 and the s&p 500 was down 20. tomorrow, more earnings, apple among the big ones. that's "nightly business report" tonight. i'm bill griffeth. thanks for watching, everybody. have a great evening. we'll see yotomorrow.

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