robert: a migrant surge a and trade standoff. i'm robert costa. welcome to "washington week." presoment trump:hing pretty dramatic could happen. we've told mexico the tariffs go on and i mean it. robert: president trump vows to putif tar on mexico and dismisses republican contribution. president trimp: they have no ideahat they're talking about. >> tre's not much support for taffs. robert: democrats say the president is reckless. >> this is dangerous territory. it's not a way to deal with migration and humanitarian needs at the border. robert: and global leaderser rememb d-day next. 12340e9 announcer: this is "washington week."

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ot kizer permanenta. koo and patricia yuen through the yuen foundation. the corporation for public broadcasting and by contributions to your pbs station from viers like you. thank you. once again, from washington, moderator robert costa. robert: as migrant issues mount at the u.s.-mexico border, president trump is pressing ahead with hislanned 5% tariff on all mexican imports starting on monday. talks continued on friday between the two nations and the president in aweet fro air force one wrote that there is "a good chance of a deal." but trump administratio c officialtioned that the u.s. could still issue notice late friday and formally begin the tariff process. joining me, mark landler, white houseorrespondent for "the new

york times." vivian salama, white house reporter for thetr "wallt journal." anna palmer, senior washington correspondent forolitico and co-author of "the hill to die on," andee joshua national correspondent for bloomberg business week. vivian, where do these talks stand? will mexican president lopez obrador buckle and cut a deal? vian: it certainly seems like they're willing to come to the table to discuss. they're eager to avoid tariffs but we'vetieen w on pins and needles waiting for president trump to get back in he's been out of the country the entire week where all of this has been unfolding. meetings at the state department. they seem to be breaking groun grow -- ground on a number of the imgrags issues the trump administration is demanding. the stay at home third country policy and two others.

the meabs t camethe country wanting to put troops on theirh so border and other concessions but president trump said it wasn't enough. robert:op how many t would be on the southern border for? mexi vivian: that's a part of the discussion a they haven't even determined that much. it's not something the trumpti administ has been so focused on as much as it is t securi u.s. southern border but a lot of the advisors, including people who re in the room with the mexicans this week say ultimately it doesn't matter because president trump is going to come back ask make a decision. even though he has made progress, he still says those tariffs are gng into effect on monday as he said. robert: the metrics don't seem clear. what's the president's strategy? mark: the perspective lutchts tariffs. they're his prefered weapon. he's used them, in his

quite successfully with china. he's used steel and aluminum tariffs around the world. he's in a bilateral trade ingotiation with japan that he would argue tha a way the door was opened by tariffs. this is the weapon he has, it's a unilateral weapon. enit doesn't d on congressional support although worth noting in this case, congress might well veeth vetoo and then override him. as vifpble has said, he's called tariff man for a reason.nk he t it work. he makes this incredible arguments that american consumers don't pay for it. that's an argument most american economists knock down. he figures it'sorked for him in the past and has one more chance to show that with mexico. robert: he may like using

tariffs as a political tool. is he also under pressure from his base? >> i think he feels he is. the thing that got him elected was that he would build a border and stop the inflow of migrants. that very much hasn't happen. e mike rant border surge is six times more than it was a year or so ago. tariffs is a well trump thinks he can use to force ccessions from the mexican government. at least indications we've gotten todays that mexicans realize there's some real pain here for them if trump goals ahead with these tariffs. robert: what would it meanwhile for the meanls? >> beginning on mony, it would be 5% tariffs, which would certainly spook the stock market, causing a fall and then they wouldo up in increments 5%, hitting af tom level 25% by october. that could be enough to send the xican economy into recession,

it could mess up t u.s. supply chain. it could slow down here. there are all sorts of dire economical and iould argue political effects but right now he's got the upper hand. robert: many republicans on capitol hill, even trump allies are speaking out against the proposed tariffs. >> many jocks in texas depend ou trade, parrly with mexico. this is the wrong solution to the crisis. >> tariffs, on the other ha, would be a massive tax. robert: others say the president's tariffs are necessary. >> one more toolbl to be to control the flow of illegalan imts coming across our southern border. robert: according to federal data, more than 144,000 migrants, many of them from central america, were taken into custody in may. u.s. customs and boarder protections said it was the highes i monthly figuren more than aad de. democrats have sharply

criticized the president's response. >> ts is dangerous territory. it's not a way to deal with immigration. it's not a way to meet the humanitarian needs at the border. robert: flals the scene, anna in congress but will republicans actually try to block the president? anna: i think it's a real responsibility. mark meadows who was there defending the president is really an outlier. you need to focus on the senate, mitch mcconnell andthers say thage don't want to do go into effect and this could be the first time the republicans issued a veto of thent presi that was -- that happened be a stung rebuke. robert: are the officials just complaining or actually talking about moving? anna: it feels different. sometimes the republicans try to tap the president a little bit and say,'t hey, do that far

ot this feels like there's a coalescing realla majority of the majority of republicans and when there's that, that's a dang i think, formula for the president because all of a sudden you have republicans saying we're going to take him on and this issu an i think they feel they're right only and it's not just politic they can go back to their states and say the president is wrongn in this. robert: what does this mean for the n version of nafta? vivian: absolutely. the new u.s. secretary was very much against imposing these tariffs against mexic he felt it could gem dies effort to get the new thata through congress, which has already been a concern. the vice president was in canada the same day that t psident made this announcement of tariffs on mexico, talkiin with ju trudeau, prime minister of canada to see how they could t it through their parliament

and the mexicans doing the same that same day. everyone trying to juggle the political elements to get it through their own congress and suddenly this happens. a lot of people feel it doesn't reflect good will. to anna's point, remember, alli s coming on the heels of the china tariffs and escalating dispute with china. a lot of senators are already concerd that folks in their state, especially farmers and others this the -- in the agriculture sector are trsuffering. thp administration has already offered a form of arbailout for thers hurting from the tariffs and now you have the chine threatening to go after certain reinstates and the agriculture sector itecifically. ould make a bad situation worst -- works. robert: you also havehe job numbers on friday. 75,000 up into the payroll, lower than expectations.

does the white aouse have chance of delaying the tariffs on monday? >> the president wld have appeared to lock himself in this terms of when he's going to this.with you mentioned the job numbers. i think that's important. there's another fairly arcain thing that has started happening, called an inversion on theield on bonds. and that's important balls seven of the last 10imes this h happened it's been a pretty accurate protect of the economy going into recession. there had been for a long time the feeling that the economy was going to continue to grow at a fairly healthy rate well into 2020. now you'reni beg to hear people say maybe not. maybe there will be at least a slowdown so if you're the white house and president trump, you have to weigh your strategy and your belief that tariffs allow you to make advances against the possility that you go into your election campaign with a sharply slowing economy. >> one other factor.

today the stock marketthoared in wake of this bad jobs report becae in theomewhat perers have logic of market traders, bad news was good news because it increased the likelihood that the federal reserve will cut interest rates this year, essential little putting a safety net in terms of what trump is doin with the trade war, which would be read as giving him leeway to pursue these tariffs. robert: how will they affect consumers across america? joshua: every one i've talked to said it will rse prices and it could raise car prices by $1,300 per car. >> in terms of spending a retailers, there are a lot of fwooleds that go back andbe for een the u.s.-mexican border. you'll have a lot of peoplee wh trump supporters all of a sudden thinking what's this president going and -- doing?

>> we talked about the hit that farmers had taken in some ofeshe mirn states. if the all the industry gets hit you're loong at thepper midwest, michigan, pennsylvania, and ohio that mosts analy believe are going to be the critical states in 2020, w trump is already struggling politically. robe: we saw speaker plotiony talk about the border. more than0 19, migrants in custody right now, off in cells that are packed and dirty. many children arriving without t parent a trump administration is canceling recreation progrs, legal aid for minors. is there anything to addeass those issues at the boarder? >> this is the struggle that a e truministration continues with. lae of the issues that led him to d a national emergency late last year and the border wall funding is still an issue

that continues to be very contentious between congress and the president and in general, you have an acting d.h.s. secretary so nothing is institutionized the with him still uncertain with the future of his role. you have a new isles director and so there's a lot of moving parts and the general con sen us that.s d gradually was losing contro because of the white house's decisions over border security. there's a lot of an cents communication situatiat there he d.h.s. and the white house are falling behindge on o ing that together. robert: we know that umesident is feeling reaction from this program. what is the democratic hope, the plan?

vivian: this presidends to lean on this. this is going to be an frustration p qn. the bstion to me is what happens with federal fudged, as youeay. they nowhere on the border wall. there's nowhere on any kind of a-panel adding relief to this. noalof that right now at all on capitol hill. in -- if anything, the president is tweeting in the air against nancy pelosi on air force one and democrats are more unilateral opposed to him as i've ever seen. robert: thpresident returned from a weeklong trip to europe where he marked the 70th anniversary of d-day w world leaders. president trump: the blood that they spilled, the tears that they shed, the lives that they gave, the sacrifice that they made did not just win a battle. it did not just win. a w

those who fought here won a future for our nation. robert: he alsoaed the queen in london and talked trade with outgoing british prime minister treesa may. there were controversy too. in an interview with fox news, he called robert mueller a fool and speaker blows pelosi a disaster. president trump: i think she's a disgrace. i actually don't tnk she's a talented person. i tried to be nice to h because i would have liked to have gotten some deals done. e's incapable of doing deals. she's a nasty, vin tick active. -- vinickive, horrible person. robert: mark, when you listened to that speech in normandy, what was your takeaway? mark: this is a sort of aon loca a locale that american

presidents have often delivered somef their most memorable speeches. president reagan in 1984. so this is a very hallowed ground and the president gave a speech i think his aids -- aveleds hoped would be presidential. rather than talk about the alliances of world war ii, he alked about soverpblgty. rather than the sacrifices all the allies made together, he talked about american soldiers. he was standing in the american cemetery but what you heard was no particula reference to the great institution that is came out of world war t ii and reason is that president trump has largely been an enemy of those institutions. he's ridiculed nato, he's attempted to sabotage the european yine union. on this day it fell to the

french president to actually get up and talk about the legacy the ited states had left europe in the wake of world war ii so that was o very noticeable thing about his time there. robert: josh, you've written a book about steve bannon. the president met with the brexit party leader in normandy. are you seeing a president who's underscoring nationalism or something different? >> very much so bannon long gone from a position of influence in the trump white house, y ideas seem to resonate more than ever. a the trumpinistration funekas on trade and immigration, precisely the tngs tha bannon encouraged him to run on. listening to trump's speech yesterday, listening to the way he spoke about brexit and the u.k., trump seems to be the same guy he's been all along and has keyed on the same issues. i don't think that's going to change.

rort: constant fights with president pelosi. the president was even criticized forri app in front of the graves at -- graves at normandy and talking about political enemies.cy >> and n pelosi didn't respond in time. she's basically trying to be the bigger person, saying that's not what we do on foreign soil but you can't underscore him attacking hers for her base and getting her caucus behind her. there's been a lot o friction in the democratic caucus about whether to impea the president. every time he goes after her all he does is unify democrats and she becomes stronger and stronger. robert: when you think about the president's fighting with a london mayor. he's being compared t a fascist. there's sar khaosai, the prime minister, he's cozy with theresa

may. >> coziness with theresa may when she's one foot out t door. the friction with the mayor of london goes back a couple of years wnth the presi because he's been a very outspoken crick and the president -- sexri the esident attacked him saying that's now -- not how you a guest in your country. it was a little bit ironic. rt nly the president was happy to remind people that he n was promog brexit in the start and he didn't really feel at theresa may took his advice and that's why the entire thing is crashing and burning. two days away from her final day in office hein r her that he recommended she would sue the effort u. the special rhythm with an inserted ement of i a trump and here's what i have offered throirh this whole e thing.

it was interesting to watch. robert: a debatable special relationship, perhaps, but what a moment for history to be there and to see the planes flyg overhand. to think about 75 years ago what happened there. yond president trump, what did it tell us? >> i think it really reminded us of the tremendous personal sacrifice the united states made on the behalf of a free and peaceful europe. there's really no greater, more glorious demonstration of thata i think that's why, when president reagan went and president obama and president clinton, all of whom spoke in the same place, they reallyen prd the united states as being squarely in the center of the european experiment and inning not hearing that message from president trump was once again, it's n not a thing with him. he's been very clear on this. but it wareally viv not hearing from him on this hallowed ground. i think theer major sort of

takeaway i had prosecute this week was the degree to which resident trump really valued the relationship he built up with queen of england. in speakinwith laura i think rehappen in that interview, he ksid that f had never seen her so animate ery day he would increase the anperlatives. she was a great wa spectacular woman. maybe that for him was the biggest take away. >> i thought that was pretty stunning. also, he had his entire family there,ou something don't always see and really saw that friction between the family and ss and all of those things. robert: thanks, everybody. we have to leave it there but students from a special message from your pbs station then watch our "washington week" extra on our websi facebook or youtube. i'm robert costa. have a great weekend.

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