ro on the brink. i'mobert costa. welcome to "washington week." iran shoots down an american drone. and the president for now backs off a military response. president trump: this drone was in internation waters clearly. we have it all documented. it's documented scientifically not just words. robert: iranian officials insist t aircraft violated its air space. inside the president's circle, hawks hover. i would encourage forceful action to stop this behavior before it leads to wider conflict. doing nothing has its own consequence. wr democrats seek restraint. >> the president may not intend to go to war here. but we're worried that he and the administration may bumble into a war. robert: and the raceor the white house heats up. next.

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broadcasting and by contribuouons tor pbs station from viewers like you. thank you. once again, from washington, moderatorst robert robert: the united states was minutes away from launching a i strike againn when president trump abruptly called off the mission. the operation would have been a response to iran shooting down a u.s. military drone. "the new york times" broke the stor andreported that the president had initially approved a -- tarkse on a handful of iranian targets. on friday the president then said he shelved the plan after a general told him that 150 people could die in an attack. in an interview with nbc news, the president also said he had not given final approval to strike iran. and that no planes were in the air. joinin me tonight, elisabeth bumiller, washington bureau chief for "the new york times." kaitlan collins, white house correspondent for cnn. jake sherman, senior writer for

politico. and co-ed tore of playbook and toluse olorunnipa. white house reporter for "the washington post." elisabeth, the times broke the story. why did the president back away? >> a lot of reasons. he says by the way that the lanes were not in the air. that's very much contradictory to what we've heard from senior administration officials who would know. he i think one reason is because he was told that there would be -- there could be as many as 150 deaths. what's curious is thanot something you generally tell the president 10 minutes before an at it's something that should have been told to him perhaps it was told to him long before. there are oeaerns as well. he was a -- political advisors were telling him this would be zast russ f his re-election chances. and there was also some talk that the americans really did think that the iranians had made a mistake and there was a rogue commander who had shot thwn the drone an the iranians were upset with him. the president hintee at that ther day.

so it's a little bit of a mystery. it could be all of the above. robert: and kaitlan collins was in the oval office with the president on thursday asked him some tough queions about iran. let's take a listen. president trump: iran made a mi hake. i find d to believe it was intentional if you want to know the truth. i think that it could have been somebody who was loose and stupid that did it. robert: kaitlan, they're in the room with him. what was your read on the president? he's getting intelligence as elisabeth was sayins what elsen his mind when you talked to his advisors? >> that was the first time we to y saw his reactio this. because other than that, he had just been saying that they made a mistake and we would find out how he was going to respond. but i asked, do you still feel that iran is a different country? because that's something he said repeatedly essentially that since he's been in office, he feels that they've changed their ways. and he said it just a few day ago. and so there the president seemed to be minimizing what they did. shooting this over $100 million military drone out of the sky. s and leavie leeway that essentially could have been a rogue general. even though the iranians werehi

sayingwas intentional. we did this to send a message to the president. hat was actually our first indication they weren't going to strike. or at least showed the president's ambivalence about doing so. robert: so he not going to use a military strike at this moment what about other action? coulde add o additional sanctions? >> sure. and the administration officials say tha they have a sanction that they could do if they wanted to. the president claimed this morning when he was explaining his decision that sanctions were added last night. that is not true basedn what 've been reporting because the treasury department hasn't announced any new sanctions today and though steve minchin said if they wanted to they could impose additional count measures they have not done so yet. robert: what about the president's advisors? secretary of state pompeo, national security advisor john bolton works is the driver? >> the president says he likes to put differing views around him and ts is very clear example of that. the president has hawks in his adminiration, people that are sort of pining for war and pining for regime change in iran and president also has people who are saying politically this is horrible for you if you decid t to goo

war with iran. and his own instincts are not to get invved in another conflagration in the middle east and maybe wants to do the same thing he did with north korea which is get to the brink of potential military conflict and thennd de-escalateave discussions or have talks and he's been sort of pesing for discussions with the iranians saying that you know, when they're ready to talk i'm ready to talk and i think he wants to have a similar situation that he had with kim jong-un wheree gets a lot of cameras and really great ratings where he's having discussions ths previ presidents have not had directly with the iranians and showing that even though previous thingses have struggled with iran, i'm able to sit down across the table with them and not clear that other advisors that ar close to the president are supporting that. people like john bolton are not in favorin of thatof diplomacy. but right now the president seems to be calling the shots. robert: the president is the only stakeholder. what does congress want? do they want more talks with iran? >> they're worried about the president being in the mushy middle so to speak. not taking action after an american asset washot down in

the region. adam kinsinger from said if i'm a pilot in the middle east toy i'm worried. as he was. he was a pilot in the middle east because you're in danger. he said just as well could have been an aircraft with human ibeings on and the president said h has a different relationship with iran and iran doesn't want to talk to donald trump and they made that abundantly clear and d talk to the obama administration. and i think that by and l cge you't paint congress with a broad brush. at by and large, republicans do not supportn additional round of talks with iran at the moment. they believe ira is aalign actor and don't believe that any sort ofeal beyond the iran agreement reached under obama will be reachil. robert: the congress have any authorization over a strike? >> probably not. y is administration made clear they believe tve the leeway to conduct strikes without an additional aumf authorization for using

military force.ro rt: jake brought up adam kiinger a hawk from illinois. and the president this is such a test for him. is he leaning toward the hawk, toward senator graham or senator paul the noninterventionist? >> right now a struggle whin the president. he talks very tough and waves a big stick but in the end he is not annterventionist. he is an isolationist in a lot of different ways. d i think he was pulled and pulled and pulled in this direction for a strik by pompeo and by john bolton. and in the end, as he's done af number times, he just changed his minding. it's a -- it was interesting he t some praise from liberal quarters today for doing that. it was very interesting to see. robert: so what about john bolton the nationality advisor? is he overestimated and is he this person perched on the's presidear influencing him toward war? >> i think it depends on where the president stands but lately we've seen him really discount john b oton's advice several occasions. and the president has dismissed

him at times in meetings that they've had. so i think we're seeing a little bit of a change with john bolton. but i think a lot of that was to dh the president doesn't like this idea that john bolton is goading him into conflict. and you saw that in the oval office when the president was asked are somef your advisors, pompeo and john bolton are standing over his shoulder goading you into conflict? and he said no, i actually think it's the opposite sometimes. but that's because the president doesn't like this narrive that any person no matter john bolton or whoever is telling him what to do. robert: and one person we're cting lking about is the secretary of defense. all this turnover at the pentagon. what does that mean for these discussions inside the administration? >> yeah. we're told and some of our reporting that thursday, while top military officials were trying to decide what military options the president should be looking at, he had the -- the president had both his outgoing acting defense secretary and is incoming acting defen secretary, both in the room, there early showing that is no actual cabinet -- senate-confirmed cabinet level

defense secretary in the last six months since jims left the administration. and that's showing how much this administration has sort of in turmo o having a l acting officials not having people who have been confirmed by the senate who can really show that they have the full confidence of the senate to carry out foreign policy and to out defense operations. this is an administration that struggling to fill the top ranks of the cabinet and that's inear from some of the decision making that is h an impact. robert: and who fills the void a person like tom cotton wh to politico this week, he's for bombing iran. he sai it very outwardly, he said he's for military action in iran. as we kno from three years of experience donald trump is talking to these members of congress dly. sometimes multiple times a day. and when there's no kind of commanding figure in r them, people are going to fill his mind and fill his brain with all sorts of ideas. which in the normal white house is not happening. >> receipt now there's a power vacuum at the pentagon and right now the secretary of

state is filling io he seems playing the role of both secretary of state, secretary of defense and a little bit of c.i.a. director which was his job before he got to state. and so pompeo i think is the one to watch here. robert: there are other voices here. you have the hawks like secretary pompeo. ou but whene on capitol hill, some democrats are war feary. republicans somehem are war weary. do we know anything about secretarysper, the army acting secretary of defense? >> we're told by sources he was actually in favor of some kind ion against iran. now, whether it was the strike that john bolton wanted we don't knowngbout the var degrees of that. but he actually was in favor of it. and so it's interesting how he was involved in ese discussions because sunday night at midnight is when he assumes the power as the acting defense secretary. of course, whether or not the president nominates him formally that's goin throw a whole loop for that because he can't serve as the acting defense secretary ife'seen formally nominated. so questions about how that leadership is going to go. robert: you're heading to the pan for the g-20? >> yes. robert: where is the rest of the world as the president

heads abroad next week? is europ trying to may cut their own deals with iran on oil? the rest of the world are they on edge about war? >> there's a lot of concern rom other countries that aren't necessarily onboard with the u.s. intelligence about what iran has done even before this drone shooting. we had a situation where the u.s. was basically saying that iran was responsible for a number of tanker. attac and it wasn't clear that the rest of the world was along and sort of supportinthe u.s. intelligence on that front. so they're asking for more information. they're asking to make s te that u.s. is sort of crossing all of its t's and dotting its i's to make sure the intelligence is clear before moving forward with any type o and you have to remember that a lot of these countries support the iran deal that the u.s. and t president pulled out of. and they're not in favor of the idea that the president and the u.s. is sort of leading to more tension with iran when they t felt liky had a good deal to de-escalate some of those tensions. robert: saudi arabia, we have seen senate republicans take action against the arms deal

this week. >> yes. was a real show of force against the president. it was a bipartisan vote against him. there was seven republicans who voted with theemocrats not t sell arms to saudi arabia. now, it's a -- largely symbolic vote because the president is going to veto it and he's got a veto prooc majority. robert: and where does it play in the iran discussion? >> they've been large silent. we've heard again from rand paul and from -- from lindsey ot graham butrom a lot of other people on the hill. y generaey stick with the president or don't say new england because they don't want to -- don't say anything because they don't want to get involved with antagizing trump robert: based on your repor hng are wding toward war? >> no. >> i think the president's impulses are no tt involved in a war. you have to remember this is a political animal here and you think about the president of the his instincts are not to get involved ia war that would be politically damaging for his prospects in 2020. >> remember, he want deals.

and everythin we've seen, we've seen the president tweet probably a dozen times iran,ll me. and he said this. many times that he thinks he can do the deal. and he's urged iran to come to e the t now, iran has said thanks but no thanks. and last night reuters reported sent a message through oman that he wanted to talk to iran smeeled and iran said no -- immediately and iran said no thanks. this might be a tough one to crack. >> that's the q because essentially he's at the brink i got to follow through on this promise not to get inmo lved in the middle east or just not going to respond to them consistently provoking me? they don't want to talk to him but it's likely they'll keep up th flair antics so the question is going to be what does he do the next thing that they do? because we were very close to a strike in a milary strike so the question is what does he do the negotiation time they try to prove? >> the real -- when they reach nuclear threshold whancthey're ned to close to next month and that's what they're really concerned about in the administration. it's not -- shooting down

manned drones. this is bad but getting close to a nuclear weapon is the real r thel concern at the white house. robert: let's turn to the race for the white house. prffident trump kicked his second bid for a term in office in orlando this week and former vice president joe biden who s faced latest po criticism from rivals over remarks he made about his past work with senatorwho supported segregation. toulouse and kaitlan covered the rally. tpresident trump: the onlng these corrupt politicians will understand is an earthquake at the ballo box. that's what they will understand. and they're going to see it.we did it once. again. we will do it and thim we're going -- this time we're going to finish the job. our radical democrat opponents are driven by hatred, prejudice and rage. they want toou destroy and they want to destroy our country as we know it. not a'septable.

ot going to happen. robert: the trump campaign announced wednesday that mr.p traised nearly $25 million in the 24 hours after his tlly. that all gives president a financial advantage over his democratic cmrllengers. biden for his part is dealing with the fallout from those comments about finding common ground with others, even segregationists. he has defended his record on civil rights. >> the point i'm making is you don't have to agree. youav don't to like the people in terms of their views. but you jus simply make the case and you beat them. robert:e toulouse, inshe arena in orlando, grievances, immigration, trade, is th a revival of 2016? >> this is a complete doubling down on the b president'se. he thinks that they helped him win in 2016. even though he's raising all this money that would would presumably allow him to reach out to new voters and reach out to moderates, he's focusing specifically on his base and even heard him say that he was goingo go after hillary clinton and lead chants of lock her up and it was really a

throwback to 2e6 because believ that whipping up his voters and getting them sortf aggrieved and angry gets them enthusiastic about voting for him,ives them an enemy to focus on. and he thinks -- he said it in the past that he thinks fear is much mor a motivator than hope. and that's what he's campaigning on and that's how he'snoing to run 2020. >> and he talked about hillary clinton before he got to anyone who isn running against i 2020. it does show that not only is it a revival of 2016, he's consistently carried that same message throughout. so the question is going to be, if he's just settling old scores and talking about his grievances and not setting forth a newgenda, is that going to be enough for the voters? but we were there. it was 20,000 people. in orlando. and the question is if they'r c going te or if they're fine with the president repeating his old statements. robert: what ro theylly into when you're talking to those voters, toulouse and kaitlan? >> they tnk the president has kept his promises. that he said he was going to be a fighter and said hwas going to be a disrupter and he's done that over the past two years in washington. and they're also focused on not

only bread and butter issues like theconomy and taxes but some of these cultural flash points and everything from the mueller investigation to abortion tohe immigration, president is really touching on some of those issues and he's getting a lot of support fros se voters who wanted him to shake things up in washington on those specific issues and he's doing so. >> what's interesting is we did talk to voters and we asked them if there was one democrat that you think is worrisome for the president. they all said the same one that's been on his mind. so much and occupied so much of his head space which is of course joe biden. robert: what do we think about how vice president biden handled the controversy this week, notzi apolo, defiant, he faces a debate next week in front ofany contenders. is this a senator biden, vice president boven you'veed? is this in character for him? >> he's taken a page from donake trump. o prisoners and apologize for nothing. and i would have to say that i think -- you know, he -- biden is being held to a different standard than the president is being heldo. you know, given the president's

record on race. d i think there's something to be said for biden saying i can work across the ool andh work weople. you don't have to like what they stand for. and i thought also wn heaid you know i'm not a racist, you know my record on civil rights. get real. i thought it was a different kind ofidoe and very much taking a page from trump. >> the number three democrat in the house of represe jim clyburn came to the speaker's lobby behind the eouse floor and asked him about the episode and hmmediately leaped to biden's defense. robert: why? >> you would have to ask him.th k that he believes -- he said this -- this reminds me of my work with strom thurmond who i -- vehemently disagreed with. this isrn saying it not me. and you had to -- his basic point and didn't say this directly but you have to work ple you don't agree with and you find abhorrent at different times. now, a lot -- wehe read in post, and we heard from other people, that t president -- vice president biden's advisors asically said don't do this.

this is a bad message. you don't need to talk about w these peopl -- you know are really out of step with not only these times but last 50 years. and he did it anyway. so that and the leaks from the campaign throwing biden u the bus should be concerning for the campaign. re there's a concern that biden and his pastdential campaigns was a gaffe machine. and even though he started thish time around w a much more organized operation, he was able to raise a lot of money d stay on message a not take questions from reporters, there's a sign that he might be sort of reverting into that gaffe mode and getting into trouble and with unforced herors. an had some help from some senior black lawmakers who have come out and -- in his support and talked about how ey don't think what he said was offensive. but this was definitely an unforced error and you did see people like cory booker come out and use it as ay opportun to draw contrast between himself and biden. a number of democraticre candidatesooking for ways to draw a contrast with biden because he's a frontrunner andw likely see that during the debates. them showing how they can be

different from biden. robert: let's go back to orlando for a second.u d the president have -- had a pretty ragtag campaign in 2016. w brad parscale is running it and raised mless and millions of dlars. what's the difference this time around behind the scenes? >> well, they're touting it as a complely differe machine. that they know what they're doinghis time. they've got the power of the incumbency and got a lot of money which is true. they do have a lot of money that they have raised. just evident in what they raised in the 24-hour period in orlando. but the question is going to be, is this really going to any different? because you saw what happened with that poll episode recentlyg where theive numbers leaked out that he was trailing people like joe biden. and when it first leaked out the campaign was not that worried about it they dideny the numbers. they just downplayed them. but then when the president reade it on ront page of "the new york times" and it really got under his shen, that's you saw them come out. so sure, it can be a new campaign. they have a lot of mstey. they'rl dealing with the same candidate. robert: the immigration focus by the president he's now pledging to have all these crackdown, and many reports

from the a.p. and others and a the timeut migrant children at the border facing reallyifficult, terribl issues. does the president pay a political cost or does h see in his -- and his team see it as a political winner? >> he certainly pays political cost with suburban voters, suburban women particularly who wereed horri by the separation of children from their parents at the border. bbut heieves that immigration plays really well with his base. he certainly played well last time. support o people who the president and they say it's terrible about a family separation. ss but they're cg the border illegally what do they expect? andas strategylways been to hold the base really close and to annihilate your othonent. an seems to be where they're going. certainly in 2020. robert: when you talk towm ers on capitol hill does the economy matter, the federal reserve indicated on wednesday it's likely to cut rates, is the economy much more of a factor than maybe some of the issues we heard at the rally? >> i thi people who want to win back the house of representatives, republicans, think it's a concern and

very nervous about the saber rattling with china and what emight come out of g-20 next week and if there's a deal with china, mor tariffs and more tariffs with mexico? people are very concerned about that. and the thingrnhat's cong and this was concerning in 2018, too, the president, republicans say -- the president has all these gre t things tk about. he has an economy that's pretty healthy. he has a tax bill which he thought was good and republicans thought wasd. g why aren't -- why isn't he talking about any of these things that most republicans agree with? instead he's gough down some of theseabbit holes. >> this is a president that likes to talk about things that make people angry andvi more ve issues and said it himself. robert: is that a strategy? >> it is his strategy. he thinks that it's much more talk about t things that are divisive. and you've seen him reading from a teleprompter or reading from a pepared speech in past and he stopped himself and said this is boring and let's hi talk about som else and talk about the hot topic of the day. we've seen this president weigh in on anything from nfl protests to the academywards

to -- celebrities in hollywood. he connects with some voters that way. he's able to gin up his base that way and get people to think this guy is on my side and a layman and talking about th issues that i can't maybe vocalize but e-saying that things that everyone else is thinking. so this is a president that would much rather talk about those hot button issues than talking about the economy or using the same speec the same stump speech that people write for him about how good the economy is. >> it's funny because the congressional peck nick he talked about the economy for a good six or seven minutes which is probably the longest he' talk about it than any campaign rally. but it's because he's in front of all these republica there the south lawn. but this isn't a traditional president. i don't think he's going to win lose in a traditional way and traditionally they would win on the economy. sonk don't really t that's going to play a factor. >> and polls sho he doesn't get much credit for the economy and started before he came into office. i also think that o iando, when he -- when he tells the people the elites are looking down on and you they hat you,

and he really does play up that culture war in a way in a i've h never seen w any forepresident. and just -- just this anger a it -- it seems to really work. you guys were there and seemed to really work. >> yeah. one thing that's fascinating to me is how he talks about draining the swamp and we've seen s many scandals out of his administration and clear that he's vulnerable on that issue. robert:has, everybody, for being here on a friday night. much appreciated. we will ten our discussion on election 2020 on the "washington week" extra watch it on our website. ook or youtube starting at 8:30 p.m. every friday night. i'm robert costa. have a great weekend. announcer: corporate funding for "washington week" is provided by --

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