pete: an indelible debate over the forecaster in chief. robert costa is away on assignment. i'm pete williams. welcome to "washington week." legislative sint, congress returns from its summer recess government shutdown october 1st. a fight over fire arms. after so many mass shootings, will congress do something to address gunnngiolence? wall. the pent gob is -- pentagon isd rting billions. and the house democrats are investigating whether prheeside trump is on those who do not

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from viewers le you. thank you. announcer: once again live from washington, substituting for robe costa, pete williams of "nbc news." pete: first we send other sympathies those left coping by the mizry left by hurricane dorian -- misery left by hurricane dorian. we know that the gunman responsiepe for the cent mass shooting in odessa, texas failed a a f.b.i.kg bund check and bought the gun he used from a private seller. the "new york times" reports the issue of new gun restrictions hasge l been theoretical in part because the white house has in pollst showing tun control is politically problematic for the president. mitch mcconnell the senate republican leader said this week on a radio talk show that he won't bring up any gun bill unless president trump suppos it. >> if the president took a

positi on a bill so that we knew we would actually by making a law and not just having serial votes, i would be happy to put it on the floor. pete: joining me now is peter baker from the namse. yamiche alcindor from nbc. nancy gerstman, philip rucker from "the washington post." a and abby livinonton. uldess pasa background check bill? about >> i would sayt is highly unlikelya i put ou cal to a friend in midland which is where part of thehooting got start. i said is there any change of the sentiment of the people on the grod who felt this? he said absoluty not. on the flip side you go to t state of texas and you go to

houston, theuburbsf houston is where these elections are being fought. and democrats think they have a real shot of luring republican women to vote for theirid caes. and so i just don't see it happening. i think several members of my delegation have been in a mass shooting at th basebl practice. if that didn't move the on the issue, i don't see how a other mass shootings where. texas. more mass sotings three of them so far. has that changed the views of the texas delegation in any way? by: they're not out wardly getting in front of it this week. senator john cornyn who's an tremely powerful member of the senate. sutherland springs and it seemed to rock him. he madees cha but nothing sweeping. pete: the agenciesie giving dil qualifying information for background checks. but what about him?

>> we've seen this with him better in the immediate aftermath, his first instinct is think about gun ls. he's from nework. he h been a democrat in the past. i don't think this is a red line for him. he was open t the idea. after timeer passes, a the. sters weigh i and what his base thinks about it, he may back off. i tbby is right.ht if it didn't happenaj in a way after parkland, after newtwt, after the congressional baseballame, what makes now any different? pete: every time something like this happens the speaker says enough is enough. this will be different. do you get any sense at the white house that things will be one of these? r will b after >> the president was really strong in the first couple of days after the back-to-back

shootings after that tragic weekend where there were shootings in both ohio and te he said i'm going to bring people together and get them to do things that they haven't done in the past. we saw the slowin backtra of the president. he admitted to being on the fone with the president the n. r.a. i asked him are you speaking to mass shooting victims. and the president said i went and visited them at the hospital and they love me. he d not say if he was having real mass sotings conversations with the victims. what that tells me is that he's making politicalalculations. and that usually leads to inaction on the r tublican side when it comes gun control or gun law changes.pe : philip, what about the n. r.a.? it's having its n problem but iterms of the white house is it still as powerful as ever?

>> it'sery powerful and with republicans in congress. and you're right, there's a lot of scrutiny on the n. r.a. institutionally. they're having difficulties as an organization. a they still represe really powerful part of trump's coalition and of the republican voting block. and that's why you see the president so reluctant to ovide that sort of political conversation and presidential leadership to push for any gun laups. it's likely -- laws. it's likely thait they will put forth set of proposals when congress gets back the deal with like th issues, capital punishment without changing gunaws. pete: do you all agree that it's unlikely congress will chang the gun laws in any way? >> absolutely crenth. pete: so -- absolutely correct. pete: we saw the fact thathe defense department that work on 127 military construction projects will be delayed because nearly4 billion is being transferred from the pentan

budget to build parts of the border wall. this affects projects in nearly half the states. so is there anything that congress with can do to chang this? or is this a done deal for this budget year? >> the democrats are trying to figure out wha to do. one of the most important things to in this is that the speaker of the house has been in that chamber for over 30 years. her father was a member. and trumpook a shot at the house of representives singular power of the purse. this i extremely troubling for thera dem. whether or not they're ableo pull something togethe amid the fundhag fight we face every september is an open question. pe: they can change it for the fiscal year. the supreme court threw it out saying the partys that sued in california, environmental groups and communities didn't have any legal standing. and that made it clear the esident had the power to do this what about next year? will congress try to put t money back into th projects and try to get these projects

funded. >> is it in the democrats' to t to say we're going be the ones to rescue the military families. we're not going to have aew middle school or is it in their best interest to say your president is the one that did that. if youeant to cha him, you have to vote him out. the argument that the president is penalized people who are normally part of hise, b the military community is one that ldsonates with the democrats. the thresident c say, look, i've given the military a lot more money than obama did. and the question is whether that overcomes the concerns about these particular projects. pete: so ahowdown overundingn the border wall, shut the government down for a while, a we going to see that again? is the president going to askr re money for the wall? >> we very well may. i don't think he's going to stop.

it was his signature problemst an knows his re-election is promise. 14 months away. he's got to show some in terms of constructing that wall. he fls like he's going to deliver on that pleote. he's getting the money he needs from the democrats in congress. i think he's goingo continu demanding for that money. but also continue these sort of butet maneuvers te saw this week and may see in the future where he's ting to reallocate the money and to abby's point in a way that the democrats allege unconstitutional. >> one source said that there's a rea reluctance to backfill it for the military because it continues to encourage the president to continue to do thii pete: there are some interesting people that are affected. this is normally something they would howl about. for emple mitch mcconnell. he seems not to be objecting to what the president is doing. >> the republican partys in

lockstep with the president in a way we haven't seen before. they often quarrel even with members of theirwn party on issues like home state projects. we don see that with president trump. he's instilledti a discipline oa fear or a loyalty or whatever word you want to t find sohey don't -- they might stand up him from time to time. they're not going to get in his face. >> i think what's most trike -- striking abo a tt loyalty t peter is describing is they're choosing to sideith the president over a middle school that's overcrowded where children hav to eat ine the library because they can't neat the cafeteria. where teachers are being -- are having use their own money to educate students. and these are the children that are the children of service members. hes -- one principal tol helene cooper in the "new york timeme that these are the children that are bearing the burdens of the w thate're

fiting. itit an incredie thing that erepublicans are sticking with the president. but it shows you why they're sticking with the president on other hard things. pete: we learned aboutow the face of congress will be changing with more republicans saying they will not run for re-election. this brings to 13. four i the number of senate republicans who are retiring or resigning. so what is this? they just donike being in the minority party inty i the he is that what this is about? >> i think the thingo take from texas and why we've had so many could translatenally. the filing. -- pete: the filing in line foror e general electi>>? or re-election. so they have to decide sooner. so thiis probably a leading indicator of other places. think what we've entered to in exas is the first few were

generational change where maybe they thoht they were going to lose re-election. congress is a very sociable place. friends e saying, my aren't coming back. we're in the minority. why are we here? it's entering ioewerritory at least within my delegation. pete: the rlicans don't ink there going to take the house next year? >> i think they would stick around for the possibility of chairmanships for the committees or subcommittees or lead the agenda and pass legs. it loo like that may not happen. pete: is it the fact --ould it also be that they're tired ofde nding the president? >> when i think about all these retirements i think about being a reporter who is sticking camera or notebook in there blicans' faces. what about this tweet? a lot of times will say, yes, we back the

prident. as soon as the camerasre off and they're off the record you have them saying, i don't want to talk about this. i think there is a little bit o fatigue in the idea that their legacy and reputations are tied to president trump. >> it's aifferent republican party than when many of them joined. many joined for fiscal discipline, standing up to russia ia o free trade, a lot of thes issues that are on opposite sides of the president. it's not great to have to swallow some of these things in the pame ofty unity. pete: i want to ask you abo a the economy. latest report of new jobs came on friday. the number was lower than expected. employers added 130,000 last month. that was well below estimas. you have written that the president is sort of blaming companies and not any of his own

policies for the drag o the economy. tell us about tha >> he's look ahead to next year, of course. the strongest card he has play for re-election has been the economy. he gets the most credit for that. the economic growth that we've been seeing come to fruition, he knows that a problem. number one would be jay powell. e chairman of the federal reserve. us, the media because we're talking down theconomy. i don't knowow much effect we have on it. he s sms to ascribe great power to us. he's addedmerican companies. he said if y a're upsetut the tariffs you're doing a bad we're starting to see a little . bit of a turn, one thing that he's done very well is sel the economy. he took an economy that was growing under president oma and unlike president obama sold the heck out of it.

it made poll numbers go up. saw a poll that said more st, we americans think the economy is owing worst than better. and we saw the consumer confidence index grow larger than any time since 2012. these are bad indicators for g he's try talk the economy back up. pete: could we see moreariffs? is he going to want to get tougher with china? >> the that's the $1 million question. we might -- "we" meaning americans need to pay more because we have to do this to china. he looked up t t the sky and sad i am the chosen one. the president is selling this economy that he's forced to do thisis think he realizes that companies are buckling under getting people are frated. >> let me ask you this question. these tariffs to help american workers and to even the plang

field in the international markets. is there any sign that these tariffs are helping any sector of the economy, are helping any an workers? >> i'm not sure that there is a clear sign of that. we're seeing a lot of signs that thes tariffs are having a strain on particulars industr in america, and you know, just the way the math works with these tariffs, american, consumers up paying for more washinghi mses dryers have cost m m m because of this trad war. the president see ts is w th china as central to his sort of leadership and commitment with his pitical base -- pete: what can he say next election? look at what tarfs did for you? what will he say about that?ha >> that's therouble because we're in the middle of this trade war where the ramificationseem too be negative. you see it among farmers and in the ag community. some of those key states he needs to win re-eltion.

he's hoping for some sort of a deal with china. we're not sure that's ever going to come to pass. pete: areou saying i does not matter as long as he acts tough with cna? >> some of his sad visors say his voter some of his advisors say they want him to take on china andto i'm her stop it and that is resonating with hisase. pe president trump made his mark on the federal response ton hurricane do don't you wish you could write like that? he said it threatened alabama which brought an immediate response from the national weather servicer in birmingham. they said no,o, alabama would n see aeny impact. then the presidenthowed this chart in the oval office to justify his alabama with a line drawn in hand showing that the hurricane would keep going beyond the official projection. he tapeted this from early orormodels from a florida ate agency that incded few

possible tracks over alabama and eeking to justify his original statement. so what happened here? is everydy jus a little bit right here. how much of a howler was what president trump did? >> he was imprecise. avnother president would said that, well, andel was c cl on it the way he was. i didn't mean tat it was going to be the same as in florida or the carolinas. i was jus going to say t there could be some affect. he doesn't back down. here we are in day six, d of this story, a story that otherwise in other president would no k given thatin of oxygen by continuing to fight it out. but he part of his case against the elitel that are t on.dia, the and they're fundraising on this. pete: in what way? w >> you can buy pens. five for $15.

go to brad parcal. >> with the signature o the president. not a sharpie. pete: it has consumed a lot of air time on cable and in newspapers. the initial statement was implied that alabama was going to be hit when, in fact, the i forecast said the storm track could bring tropical force winds from alabama which were up to 30 miles an hour. and in my home state of wyomi that's a cm day. was it wrong for the president to say "hit"? was it wrong for the weather service to say it wldn't be affected? is everybody little bit guilty here? >> it seems a little bit murky in terms of the president's language. but it is remarkable that we have national weather service network rebuking and chastising essentially the local alabama office saying you s not say

that the tresident is wrong. if the national service is to be be, then you would say office was not 100% correct.l that said, it's very clear that someone likely the president drew an extra part of the national weather services map that was notde inc in that day's forecast. that was clearly -- pete: was it clear who drew it? >> not to me. buno who? in that regard, he was clearly i tnk what we was the president double down as he does on health care or on immigration. and he's in some ways had good politicall conquces by showing that in his character he's someone who won't back down from a fight and would even fund rae from it. pete: by the way, alabama -- he said alabama would be grazed. that's his comme. you had a piece looking at how some senior white house people assess his summer. it said the two months between

independence day and labor d offered a fresh and vivid portrait of theresident as seen by trump's critics, incompetent, indecisive and ineffective. what werehed steps? the re-election campaign gets going. they try to broaden their appeal. they lay a foundation. and trump according to some ofw his advisors missed that opportunity. he spent his suer attacking the squad, the fr congresswomen ofolor. assaulting his visit to baltimore. and boted visits following the shootings. and we could go on and on and it was whip-saudi plow massy. it was a seriesf consequences and controversys that he in large part created himself that his allies and advisors feel it was a period of self-sabopege.

: what about the possibility impeachment? that's another i that was not on your list. is the house going s toiously move on impeachment? and what about this thing that the house wan to look into about whether the president offered pardons to homeland security people wan said if i do that mr. president it would be against the law. did -- and said, no i'll pardon you? is that for real? >> we've seen moving forward the impeachment onifferent levels. pelosi has been reluctant on this. the new topics the tre bringing um is that this goes beyond ruia. the freshmen who are in trump districts are not wanting toha this debate. and i think the question i have, you've got some very 'em hopassioned house members want to move forward on this. but the political climate is changing. the presidential campaign is moving in. dodo that enthusiasm within the

larger democratic world remain there? pete: let me ask you both in the little time we have left, about is the election going to be about the economy? >> i don't see it about the economythe central thing that the president continues to talk about i i immigration. and he continues to kwluse lot of people see as racist language. the economy will be part o it. largely a lot of democrats that i talk to really feel as though there is a segment of the population that are under attack because of their identit what moves them is their identity and the president feelin as toe he is ptecting to do with america -- feeling as to he is protecting america. >> this is the t stronge calling card they have. it's not just going to be about the economy. it's super imporaunt b it's the important salient, you know, achievement he can point to. i've givenou the greatest -- sn it d matter that the

numbers don't actually add up to the greest economy er. it's a good talking point. the larger question is i think it's going to be an election about donald trump, right? we can define that however that's defined. can he make it about thether candidate? he did. he did it that t hillary clinton. can he make the democrat an acceptable alternative to snim pete: thanks for wch k. ing. -- tnks for watching. robert costa will be bac next week. next week we'll be talking about vice president'smisit. ete williams. have a great weekend.

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