♪ this is 9mm business report" with bill griffeth and sue herera. wall street whiplash. stocks fall sharply then rebound, lng investoring scratching heads as they try to navigate this rket. economic back bone. theonsumer has been powerg the economy higher and some experts sayhat won't change any time soon. home buyer bonus, the volatility causing mortgage rates to ll, creating big savings for borrowers. the stories and more ton on ightly business report" for thay, october 3rd. and we do bid you good evening, everybody and welcome on the third day the market tunced when it looks likee stocked woing to extend the steep declines sentiment reversed and selling turned into buying. followed by energy. way highe

but the day did start with more angst after o report the services sector of the economy showed weakness leading to concerns that the economic slowdown could end up being broader than initially thought. but it also raised expectations federal reserve will cut interest rates a third time when central bankers immediate later this smonth. and that apparently is what the -- brought the buyers back the dow industrials closed up 1222 points. back above 26,000. the nasdaq up 87. and the s&p added 2 mike santoli f reportsm the new york stock exchange tonight. in investors ars in the g to ofer recession scare. but the markets have been reflecting slowdown fears for months. so the crucial question now, just what degree of economic did acceleration is priced into stocks? the broad s 500 is a mere 5 4 % below the record high from late july and mild recession

stocks fall 20 peppers suggesting equities would not shrug off the ecomic drop in economic activity fromro curren levels. if the s&p is fla for the past year on the sectors tide to the economic cycleyc lagged badlynd stocks that have carried the indexes. nachkt, banks, retailers,or trantion companies and energy producerers are now valued near the cheapest lev s of the past decade. suggesting the pain has been belt in the mostll economica sensitive parts of the market. ow whether they are che enough comes dow one esestion. is the u.s. undergoing a temporary lull in economic growth true to trade frictionance the tax cuss receding into the past allowing for the soft landing helped for federal reserve rate cuts or will poor global growth drag in recession despite lower interest rates? it's hard to have certainty about the answer. which is why every fresh bit of economices a high stakes moment for an anxious wallet

st that very much includes omorrow's jobs report for septembe fornightly business report," mike soonlty. >> this weeks's economic data hac d you a b dazed and confused probably. we have two money managers now to share views on what they're doing and buyinin in volatile market. joining us nancy tangler chief invest strategist and john with de tocqueville asset management. welcome to both of. you thanks for having us. >> ladies first. nancy what e you doing inhe environment? you have a prettyu structured formula h ae for some time now about how you buy stocks? >> well, every market opportunity in our view -- i mean every market decline is a opportunity. jp morgan came out with a study sa over the lastve 20 years stocks return% if you miss the ten best days youarnedhree% a year.

we look for high quality in times like these and he been buying cyclical stocks,l agreeig with me santi's report. and some consumer stocks and health care. >> john, you also like it when the market goes wn, right? >>yeah, it's kin of like going into a car dealership, you don't wa to markup the price of the car. you want to buy on sale. sen theck market sells off that gives you opportunity to buy high quality companies at a discounted company. u remember the bowl is buy low and sell high. inhis environment what we like is given the low yies in the dividendncome plays, where theer coany is paying out less than 50% of the earnings. soive we have protection on the yoeld. we think the high dividend yielding w plays are the to go in the low yield environment. >> nancy, the environment though for theke m is really multipronged. you have headline risk from trade. you have the fed in play.

you have a deaccelerating i econom some sectors and put it all together that's a awful lotngf different t ts market and an investor have too navitete. >> defi, sue. and we have seend it this year. i mean, the volatility has been heart stopping at times. andivor the t iual investor, i imagine even more so. but -- b i agree with john. i mean i've been buying high dividend payers for decades. nd they give you some protection and they also give you insight into what management is thinking. ese managementson't want to cut the dividend. if they are raising t dividend and paut ratios low back to what john said earlier then you have a recipeveor success the next three to five years. valuation is a leading indicators. >> john, give us a for ins ynce. what a buying? what do you like among the dividend rspa >> we think this varmt where yields are low and volatility is highhi verizon rs ally attractive story. i mean verizon doesn't need an

introduction. but whenodou get the 4.25% 12.5 times earnings and you have the entire mobile market eventually upgrading to 5g to the next generation, we think a -quality franchise like verizon is a no brainer here. >> and nancy what would you buy -- or did y b in this 's volatility. >> yeah, so sue we bought pepsi. we added to it and then today's earnings were excellent i wish i owned more. just under 3% yield growing 9% a year. we bot a 6% yielder, ad a longer term play and broaded to om yielding about 4% and they're growing the dividend aggressively like eye% a year for the last five years. we like the dividend payers paying out of their free cash >> nancy, what are you avoidingu right now? >> oh, well bill we avoid the utilities. they're too expensive and that fensive play we think has run.

we are market owning no utilities. market weight energy about 4% of the portfolio. and i won be adding to energy in here. and i forgot the -- the othere hat i gave you. >> okay. >> that's enough. >> a lot ofer volattility in be. john, what would you stay away >> we are ne hopping on nep of he ipo trains out there for clients, at least for the -- those clients looking for income. we think somes of the valuati in the ipo market are just too crazy for our client base. so we think stick with high quality, stick wh income. and hit it down the fairway in in environment. that's what we are looking for for the client se >> thank you very much both. appreciate if nancy tangler with jo petrekez with tocqueville asset management. allye d notwithstanding american are shifting their view of the economy. it's not as bright as many once

thout it would be. here is steve liesman. the number of the week, the ism services inds weaker than expected pmpting new fears of now both the manufacturing sector and the services stor have surprised to the downside. both now been declining since late last year. both now hit multiyear low was noense of bottom yet. however, neither survey is yet in the range wre it is typically siglled aecession for the broader economy. ubs saying however in aco entary, the slowdown may be sooner than we forecast. americans areking upre on this weakness. attitudes towards the economy took a sharp turn downward ine cnbc all america economic survey. 41% pessimistic about the cuent situation and about the future of thehe ecomy. the poll registered the highest level ofce pessimism sin octobe 20presenting a stark change from the heady days this time last year when the index

hit new all-time highs. the current state of the economy this quarter were little changed all the actio was in the outlook for the future expectations of the economy. just of the public believe their wages will rise in the next year. at's the lowest level sin march 2016 and 35% say now is a good time to invest in stocks that ufrmt is the lowest level in three years. just 23% are saying the economy will improve in the next year. it's the first time in the c 11 pollsducted by cnbc during the trumpru presidency tt pessimists outnumber the optimists f for "nightly business rept," steve liesman. market.upside to the rtgage rates falling. adding up to savings for diana olick breaks it down. home buyers are getting a boons. growing crn in the economy has investors rushing into bond market causing interest rates to fall and that includesorage

rates. the ample rate on t 30-year fixed had been falling throughout much o the summer but then made a sharp jump back up in september. now res are headed back down again, down enough since last friday to save the average payment for a $300,000 loan but ore dramatic comparison is over a percentage point from a year ago. that's about 225 less on a monthly payment for the same $300,000 monreal that's real money for the cash strapped buyers, especially those first-time yers. lower rates are clearly boosting theld bs. miami-based lennar reported a big are than expected jump in new order for homes. and chairman stewart miller pointed squarely to lower interest rats the driver. >> the market for new homes has been improving from last year's pause ases lower a int rates

stimulated demand and improved affordability while the overall fundentals of the econo have remained strong. >> miller also said that despite all the talk of recessioower rates are now outweighing the concerns. home pricesre still gaining. but the gains are smaller than they were a year ago. and now with lower tes, affordability is improving. the only thing standing in the way of an even stronger housing market is that there just t areh enoues for sale. for nightly business report, diana olick in washington. >> stillhead the 64,000 question can the consumer continue to prop up the economy? ♪ ♪ investors krerly are

watching consumerme remoted companies closely these days. since consumer spending makes up two thirds of economic activity. and it's been the economs lone driving force. well late today costco said that it missed revenue estimates as the wholesale wlub saw a drop in comparable same store sales. but the company did see growth in e-commerce division. shares initially were volatile in afterours trading t dight bu close the regular session up more than 1% to 289 even. as our guests mentioned earlier in the program pepsi's physician is back. the company reporomd enings and revenue that r were better than expected. thanks to increased investment in advertising and technology. that sent the stock higher in today's session. frank holland has more on pepsi's quarter. > strong consumer demand leading to high are than expected profit for pepsi. gator aid and the introduction of gaiter aid zero some of the best performers's seems exceeded expectation for theeverage and

snack maker >> what we sees is a consumer that likes our products andt buying them increasing rate. as far as we can tell, the consumer is actually actoing ju fine right now. >> the compa gets roughly a third of profits from north american sales ofpepsi, garrett aid and other befrpgsas incg 3%. biggest gains fromck. tato chips and doritos dividion stow growing 5%. sales in aas increg by 5% as well. despite the dramatic drop in consumer confidence lastonth o hew johnson says people continue to spend on pep sflie space in thearket both in terms of the aisles as well ase the perimf the store as well where the sales happen because our products are s impulse. i think what's happening more than anything is the increased advertisinrt that we have is causing consumers to shop usmo re aggressively. and our customers are rewarding us. >> after the performance this

last quarter, accept pepsi says is plans toeet or exceed sales goals for the year np shares of pepsi gained 24% this year compared to2% by rival coke. "nigly business report," fra holland. >> pepsi a consumer staple stock with a strong year with many big names in the sector up double digits. proctor and gamble another one. its shares rosear2% this wal-mart, pepsi,rank mentioned that both up and kimberly clarkp more than 20%. so pepsi says the consumer is it strong. and so does the retail indusy. the national retail federation expects holiday sales to rise as much as 4.2% this year more than last year. the group says the consumer is in good financial shape but cautioned the confidence could be eroded by global risk factors like trade and political rhetoric. and that forecast has been one of the few bri bt spots fori the market this week as the manufacturing and the svices sectors slow.

can the consumer keep our economy on an evenkeel? joining us tonight we welcome back charlie oshay, the retail analyst at moodies. charles always good to see you thanks for joining us. >> good to see you. >> the forecast from theretail federation is growthh of 4.2% i saleet th's muchr than the average has been over the last five years. do you buy thenu ers? >> yeah, i think so. i think 4ish. 4.2 is a hill precise for me. but 4ish, maybeis some to thee top of that. i just think the big guys are so strong and are goi d tove pricing this holiday. i don't think the line is gins. going to be an issue. because i think you're going to see the residual factors of wal-mart and amazon fighting t cage match we talked about in the fast. and everybody else will play the game. injury the revenues will there. the question iss for me asfot i every holiday how do the promotions go and dos the

margins hold up. >> if indeed the economys slowing ait consumers may be more concerned with that provides point. mouch discounting oco promotionl activity do you anticipe? >> a lot. i think. >> ok m. >> don'tn to sound flippant, sue. but i think every year i say in oum at moodies says this has been a heavily a promotiona year. is it more than last year? but every year tryy get more innovative. the shipping is a promotion. you' seeing that a lot this holiday. the arms races continuinex amazon's day effort is going to ry ramp up the holiday. . wal-mart with same day available swrablt of foo on a shipping basis is a big deal. everybody is playing catch up much farther got shipped. it's leveraging that. i thinin you're see seeing a lo of omotionspr the thought is they're not all price focused but convenience focused forhe consumer. >> right. >> but yet up in the same place is the retailer. you ar cutting you margin.

>> who are the winners this year? >> same -- i think the same suspecsp as usual. i think you're looking at at the wal-marts, amazon, target, best y. i think the tjx, costco, the rothtories opinion on the t' apparel side interesting. and i won't call anybody out ththe just because i think it's too early there. but i think the big guys are well positioned to continue to flex muscle and extract share from the weaker >> verytuickly you're wrd about the soft revenue from co>>co tonight. bsolutely not. i think we're talking the second or third decimal place. and i tecnk that, you know, that's one of the top retailers in the world any way you measure . >> charlie oshay with moodies thanks for joining us tonight. >> thanks, bill. constellation brandndakes a hit from pot. s that's where we begin the market vocatn. ke are muc c mrelor one

oeer with skonss it tlags cite ting l lses in canopy. shares fell 6% to 194.26. amazon is reportedly in dispute with disney over advertising on tamazon's fire devices. the "wall street journal" says amazon is looking to sell a percentage of ads on disney's ad supported apps.n' but disney h budged if an agreement is not reached disney could n seeber of apps removed from fire tv, the second largest distributor of tvam stg apps. amazon was up a fraction to 171724.42 while disney was off about $1 to 128.15. and a new company debut on wall street. vool vial an buy o sellingio 8 mi share at $19 a pies. specializing autoimmune and severe inflammatory diseases.

the shares jumped more than 23% to 23.41. facebook is launching a new camera-first messaging app on the instagram platform they calr threads. it's going to appear to be similar to snapchat allowing use tors share status and location and photos and videos with people that they have added to a list of close friends. nearly 3% ares rose to 179.38. interestingly, snapchat took a hit, falling more than 3% to 14.30 today. macy'sma said it plans to he about 80,000 temporary woers for the upcome whom day hopping season, the retailer pointing out more thanl 8,000 seasona workers they hired last year ended up with full-time positions. macies up 1% today to 14.80. and go pro shares fell after the company lower guidance due to productiononelays of the new linef high definition cameras called hero 8 black. go pro dropped nearly 19% today

to $4.16. . e race for the 20 to democratic nomation still has a long way to go. but so far the economy has donated the conversation. candidate andrew yang has ideas taxes.talis and he recently spoke with john harwood who asked yang if he thinks a wealth fax is a good idea. >> t i think wealth tax is an idea in spirit that makes sense given t wealth distribution. but in practice it would have massivemplementation programs. there would be capital flight. wealthy people would rounce citizenship. the tru wealthy in count to an annual audit of all of their assets. compliance problems. and to me there are better waysm toe this economy fair. >> now, when you think about whbo you see happening and the elimination of opportunity on a pretty gigantic scale, and see

capitalism's fault? >> or is it the particular intersection of capitalism and 21st century technology. >> i like to quote myriend eric weinsteinen who said we never knew capitalism was getting eaten by its son technology. if technology comes along doing work better and cheaper than we can then capitalism loves it. and in the old days if you had a big, successful company it woulo hire lots workers, treat them well. those things aren't true anymore. itart a big successful companan not hire a lot of peope if i hire them i can make them temp and gig and uber drivers and not give benefits. the fundamentalshat we assume breaking down.e and technolog is the . accelera >> you have a appeal to young people, i thinkhi what would you tl them about why capitalism and not socialm? >> well, what i wouldld say to them is i get it. that if youome of a in the era and you see this distorted

inhuman version of capitalism you would think give me anything the opposite of this. and so they're being very rational and sensible.siblwh we can do ideally is channel the energies of pitalism towards our own well being, towards our own health and life expectancy, mental health and freedom supersubstance abuse. and kids are doing. and anne then if we have a different measurement aside from sto market prices and gdp then we take the best of capitalism and turn it towards things we can get excited about. >> by the way, when it comes to the impeachmentchoiry, yang says that he is concerned that it's going to defort attention away from important economic issues. comg up, why the nfl may have just scored a ratings touchdown. ♪ ♪

♪ mgm resorts and the victims of of the las vegas mas shooting that occurred two years ago this week have reached a settlement that will pay them up to $800 million. it was the deadliest shooting in modernto american h with 58 people killed, more than 400 injured. the gunman sprayed bullets from attending an outdoorou concert. lawsuits questioned how and why the hotel did not know that he had been hoarding high--powered weapons and appear ammunition i his room for days. mgm ceoaid the goa has always been to resolve the matters so the victims and families can move the lead attorney for the plaintiff said the settlement represents good corporate citizenship on mgm's part. after years of faumg viewership, the national football league and the network that carry the games are getting some good news. julia boorstin has more on the

ratings rebound. >> good newsor the nfl and the tv networksaying up for games. last yeares ratings increase following due two years of declines wasn't a fluke. four weeks in the league's 100th season a tv ratings up 4% with fox's first thursday night game up 22%. the nfl's chief media and business officer says this reflects high powered mahups, ose games, high scoring and more touchdowns. quarterbag and changes to the format of games seem to be workin >> we have gone from five breaks per quarter.l five commercreaks per quarter to four which fanning really like. you know, they smed not to be overly worried about how many commerce commercials are in break what they worry about it is how manyy breaks there and that helped tremendous will. >> bes well f the nfl leverage ahead of contract negotiations. rights will be visible starting for sta 2022 season and jp

organ predicts rights cld draf as much as $60 blion from $42 billion from the last noon and year deal. while nbc, cbs cbs, fox and espn expect to hold rights. the question is whether tech giants s uop games with digital viewership including the apnea app and teams app up 50% from last year and azmodan has seen viewership for thursday >>ght games to a million this year. ecause we've been able to demonstrate that nfl w gamesk on digital on a scaleable meaningful way, we've had more interest in games from digital playe than we ever have before. what that means in new deal we have t see. but clearly i think the digital companies are seeing thehe valu what livevents rnly but nfl otball specifically can do. a>> it's not>> good news warner media chief john sinky saying the ticket price peaked and a renewal of higher price isn't

workt it with overall tv ratings declining the nfl has alt to lose from cord cutting and shift to streaming on nanosecond content. for nightly business report, julia boorstin in los angeles. and before we go, here is another loooo at the day on wal street. the dow rose 122 pinpnts. the nasdaq was up 87 and the s&p 500 added 23. that's nightly business report tonight i'm sue herera thanks for joining us. >> i'm bill griffeth. have a great evening. see you tomorrow. ♪ ♪ ♪

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