>> woodruff: good evening. i'm judy woodruff. on the newshour tonight: a risky reopening. restrictions are eased in all 50 states, despite falling short of c.d.c. requirements amid a continually rising death toll. then, the state of the state department. concerns abound, following the ouster of an insped or general, secretary pompeo offers denials of wrongdoing. plus, an uncertain future. an inside look at predictive modeling for covid-19, and why new infections from the disease are so difficult to foresee.t >> a reasonable strategy to try to look at models like the economists do, which build in how individ government, state government are

going to respond to the problems as they unfold. >> woodruff: all that and more, on tonight's pbs newshour. >> major funding for the pbs newshour has been provided by: ♪ ♪ moving our economy for 160 bnsf, the engine that connects us. >> fidelity investments.

>> consumer cellular. >> financi services firm raymond james. >> supporting social entrepreneurs and their solutions to the world's most prsing problems-- skollfoundation.org. vi the lemelson foundation. immitted to imp lives through inventiothe u.s. and developing countries. on the web at lemelson.org. >> supported by the john d. and catherine t. macarthur foundation. committed to building a more just, verdant and peaceful world. more information at macfound.org >> and with the ongoing support of these institutions: >> this program was made possible by the corporation for publicroadcasting. and by contributions to your pbs station fr viewers like you. thank you. f:

>> woodrhe reopening of america is now in full swing, from auto plants to theme parks. it is happening at different rates in different states, asal the natieath toll reaches 93,000. stephanie sy begins our coverage tonight. >> rorter: a new phase in th fight to breathe life into an economy ravaged by covid-19. as of today, all 50 states have taken varying steps to reopen. in texas, where only minor restrictions remain in, children are back at daycare, and youth programs have opened, ahead of t summer break. >> it's been really good to bring back normalcy for the kiddos. you know, we're really excited g everybody back, but we're really trying to make sure we do it the right way and safe way.>> eporter: by contrast, in new york, it is far from business as usual. retail stores are still closed to the public, only no

beginning to offer curbside services. and public parks, like this one in brooklyn, are getti creative about how to distance new yorkers eager to bask in spring weather. >> the park basically just put just see what six partelp people looks like. so it's easy for us to chill and not beorried about that.>> eporter: starting tomorrow, the state will also allow religious services with up to ten people to resume. in orlando, florida, tourists roamed around stores and restaurants inside disney world as the theme park began welcoming patrons. visiting a nursing home with vice president mike pence today in orlando, republican governor ron desantis defended his decision to open faster than others, and he denied th an expert was fired for ring to manipulate data to support his decision. s >> we'ceeded. and i thinthat people just don't want to recognize itll because it cges their narrative. it challenges their assumption, so they've got to trind a boogeyman.

maybe it says there are black helipters circling the department of health. if you believe that, i got a bridgen brooklyn i'd like to sell you. >> reporter: for weeks, states have taken steps toward lifting lockdowns, with mixed messages after much delay, the centerses. for disease control andui prevention hasly released a 60-page document with guidance on testing and re-opening, but it generally steers clear ofnd language on ory rules. it includes cleaning and social distancing recommendations for suggests staggereds and physical barriers to prevent contact in the workplace; and calls for limited ridership on public transportation, with required face coverings for transit workers. schools in areas that meet certain metrics for lower virus transmission are encouraged to space desks at least six feet apart, conduct daily temperature screenings, and serve lunch in notably left out of the c.d.c.

document, any mention of how places oworship should resumeti ty safely. overseas, another glimpse of t what movoward normalcy might look like came from south koa, where high school students returned to class for the first time today. but as more untries moveico loosen resons, in geneva, the world health organization warned the pandemic continues. >> in the last 24 hours, there have been 106,000 cases reported y since the outbreak began.le >> reporter: the head of the s w.h.d while the virus may be slowing in developed nations, poorer countries are now seeing more infections. for the pbs newshour, i'm stephanie sy.

woodruff: and another t story today: the firing of the state department inspector hageneral steve linick, whan active investigation ongoing of the secretary of state mike pompeo.e cretary answered reporters' questions today, and our foreign affairs correspondent nick schifrin joins me now. so, nick, what did secretary pompeo have to say? >> reporter: pompeo denied everything the reporters asked him related to steve linick, and he actlly joked that he should have fired steve linick in the past. senior officials who are politically appointed around pompeo have told me that theye considertic a bit of a partisan hack, in their words, and pompeo, today, tried to turn the tables, instead, pointing the finger at the top democrat the senate foreign rewhraitions committee, who is trying to inestigate whympeo

fid lentic. >> this is all coming through the officef senator menendez. >> i don't get my etcs guidance from a man who was criminally proscated. case 15-155, new jersey federal district court. >> reporter: for the record, it is not only menendez investigatg the firing, it is also house foreign affrs committee chairman elliott angle and other democrats. but democrats sid respond to pompeo in a statement accusing him of firing lentic as lentic was investigating pompeo and said the secretary was "use dig version tactics by attempting to smear me." >> woodruff: so nick, as senator menendez mentions,es lentic ingating pompeo, what do we know he was investigating? what do we know abet that? >>porter: so congressional officials tell me that lentic matters related to secretary of state mike pompeo and his wif susan, whether they had improperly used either political

appointees or even diplomatic security officials to basically run errands for them. there's been an undercurrent of those accusations the last few years and i should say, juy, i've spoke ton former c.i.a. direct of c.i.a. and they said they heard some of same things. today pompeo said he didn't know whetntr the investigation the personal matters existed but, at the same time, denied the underlying substance behind em. >> i have no sense of what investigations were taking place inside the inspecialty general's office. codn't possibly have retaliated for all the things. i've seen the various stories that s wmeone wasalking my dog to sell armso my dry-cleaner. i mean, its all just crazy. hereoodruff: and, nick, is another question out there and that is whether the spector general lentic was also looking -- lentic was looking into arms sails to

saudi arabia. >> reporter: 100,000 people died in that war and it's led against saudi arabi houthi in yemen and the saudis are armed by u.s. weapons, authorized by u.s. officials. the sales were at first blocked by republican senator and then menendez but they restart when the administration declared an emergency that they had to geta the armses and last summer angle and other democrats called for an inves tgation intohat emergency by steve linick, the i.g. ey pointed out why did you need to call an emergency if the arms weren't going to get ther for two years? today we heard from speaker of the house nancy pelosi who brought up that accusation. >> they declared a fake emergency in order to initiate the sales, and then -- and that may have beertn f the investigation. that's what i'm very concerned about. >> reporter: we know that steve linick was investigating that declared emergency.

pompeo ce cleaned to be interviewed as part of that investigation but answered written questions about it. one official says senior state department officials have been briefed about the investigation but we don't know what the results were. >> woodruff: nick, one more piece of contextere. we know steve linick was the fourth inspector general in the trump administration to be removed just in theast six weeks. >> reporter: yeah, this is part of an argent that president trump has made against these insalpector gen he was asked about steve linick on monday and he indicated he did not care what steve nick had been investigating, only that steve linick was appointed by obama an pompeo wanted him gone. >> i said who appointed him? .ey said president oba i said, look, i'll terminate him. i don't know what's going on other than that bu would have to ask mike pompeo. congressional offiand is officials inside the inspector general community tell me tckat steve lintered the i.g.

world through a republican senator richard grassley and hii t high profile investigation was into hillary clinton's email server. they also tell steve linick wasn't particularly aggressive against the trump administration nor, for that matere any of the inspector generals that trump has believed in the lastwe feks. republican and democratic officials are trying to figure out whether they can create soe kind of for-cause remin order to protect inspecto insper general, but these officials i'm talking to say this is a five-alarm fire inside the inspector generals community. current inspector generals are scared, the mood is negative, anthe idea that inspector generals are there to speak truth to power, that's bei eroded. >> wdruff: so important to report on this, and i know the reporting will continue. nick schifrin, thank you very much. >> reporter: thank you. oo >>uff: in the day's other news, a tropical cyclone blasted india and bangladesh, killing at

least 14 people and destroying homes by the hundreds. the storm surged out of they bengal into a densely populated region that's beenbe set by the covid-19 pandemic. pounding india's eastern coastline, the strongest cyclone in over de. winds reached 100 miles per hour, knocng down trees and damaging metal roofs. today in new delhi, indian officials said they are working to restore roads. >> ( translated ): all teams are on the ground, all teams are outside in the cyclone area,nd >> woodruff: in neighboring bangladesh, riverban overflowed. yesterday, local officials began mass evacuations.ni >>ally, they were not willing to evacuate, because they were weighing betweenhe risk of cyclone, at the same time also the invisible risk of

covid-19. >> reporter: snigdha chakroborts is the banglcountry director for catholic relief services. she says the cyclone is another >> they do not have income. they do not have homes. they also lost their crop in the field. so basically it is a devastating situation and painful situation thatthhey will have to live wi now. >> reporter: nearly three million people have been evacuated from their homes, and are hunkering down in cramped evaction centers, where social distancing is impossible. for thousands of rohingya refugees in southern's bangladesh's cazar, the only protection they have are plastic sheets to cover their homes. as heavy rain hit the refugeere camp todaydents worked to prevent flooding. nearly 10,000 people in central omichigan have been order

of their homes after flooding breached two dams. s a river and connected lave topped record levels that weret 1986, and they're still rising. today, debris-- including a camper-- floated down the river, and only street signs werebove water in downtown midland. governor gretchen whitmer said the flooding is expected tpeak tonight. >> if you're in an impacted area, please evacuate. this is going to be ha, but we are anticipating several feet os water achis area. and so, while 're in the midst of a global pandemic, it's really important that to the bee of our ability, we obse the best practices to keep ourselves and our families safe. >> woodruff: midland is home to is already encroaching on the company's main plant site. u.s. marshals in massachusetts have arrested two men accused of helping former nissan c.e.o. carlos ghosn flee japan. they allegedly smuggled ghosn to lebanon in a box last

december. he was facing financial misconduct charges, but said that he could not expect a fair trial in japan. israel is under new pressure to abandon plans for annexing parts of the west bank. the top u.n. envoy for the middle east said today that it would deal a devastating blow to any hopes for peace. and palestinian president agreements with israel and the u.s. are void because of the annexation threat. back ithis country, the u.s. supreme court barred the immediate rease of secret grand jury testimony from the russia investigation house democrats had sued for access to the material. but the court denied that u request at leail early summer. that all but guarantees thell documents ot be released before election day.e former vesident joe biden accused president trump and his lieutenants of abusing their law enforcement powers. the democratic presidential

nominee-in-waiting spoke via video link to columbia law school graduates today. last night, he rejected mr.formd illegally to push the russia investigation. >> this is his pattern: diversion, diversion, diversion, diversion, diversion. don't speak to whatever the issues before us are. my god, "obamagate." come on. this is so venal, so petty. the greatest crime?me , my lord. >> woodruff: meanwle, the mail-in voti in michigan andhr nevada, and hetened to withhold federal funds for the states. the number of babies born in the u.s. has fallen to a 3 low. the centers for disease control and prevention estimates 3.7 million births last year, down 1% from 2018.

the decline has been trending for more than a decade. and on wall street, stocks bounced back from tuesday' sses, led by the tech sector. the dow jones industrial average gained 369 points to close near 24,576. the nasdaq rose 190 points-- 2%-- and the s&p 500 added 48. still to come on the newshour: the trump administration continues deportation of migrant children despite the pandemic. brazil's former president on the country'chaotic response to the coronavirus. an inside look at predictive modeng and why newnfection from covid-19 are so difficult to foresee. plus, much more. or

>> woodruff: theavirus is changing life as we know it in the u.s., including thp administration's immigration policy. as john yang reports, one big sht is in the treatment of migrant children and teenagers. >> yang:udy, the "new york times" reports that in march and april, shortly after they reached the border, the trump administration deported more than 900 migrant children . that's much sooner in the process than before. it's part of a new, stepped-up border security policy that the department of homeland security says is intended to prevent the spread of the coronavirus. caitlin dickerson covers immigration for the ork times," and joins us now. she joins us from her home in new york.

caitlin, thank you so much for being with us. what's the fference between the way these children are being treated now and e way they were being treated before the pandemic? >> sure. so, historically, when a chi or a teenager, anybody under 18, arrives at the american border without an adult guardian, they were allowed into the country and taken to a pretty le process in which they were assigned a social worker, they were sent to ahelter that wa specifically designed to house children, and that social worker helped determine whether or not they have a legal case to remain in t united states. if the child isn't or doesn't protections that ountrye legal offers, then they are returned to their home country, but only after a safety plan has ben put into place, sothe american government makes contact with fami in the home country and makes sure that the child has a safe place to go back to, which, as you can imagine, is i especialportant, when a child is returning to a dangerous country. both of those tings aren't happening now.

so rather than being allowed into the country, children are being returned right away. already in the united states before this stepped-up border enforcement began, when thse kids are being depored, it's more quickly and without the safety plan ahad of time, which means some kids have ended up back in home country, their family doesn't know they're there till they arre and the child may not have anywhere to go.u >> reporter: yart your tale with a 1-year-old boy who is about to sect aross the rio grande with a stranger, not mily.a can you summarize what happened to him. >> so, right. gerson is 10. he had been in mexico with his mother since last october. they fled because of his mother's partner who had been abusive to themmennedithheld food and hit them. they went to mexico, like so many other families.

they filed for asylum in the runited states but were led in the protocols of the trump administration, requiring the ylum seekers to wait on the mexican side of the border till their cases are adjudicated. gerson's mother. safe enough to many migrants who were waiting on the mexican side of the border have been subjected to kidnapping and extortion. it's very dangerous. they were living outdoors in a so his mor decided the safest thing she felt to do was to send he10-year-old son aross the border alone so he could go liv with hisuncle in houston. but that didn't happen. she didn't realize this trumpad nistration policy has been implemented and she heard nothing from her son days.x when she finally did hear from him, he learned he was back in hondur and without any of his family being informed. at reporter: what's the trump administration'snale for the nepolicy? >> so this policy came down

rough an executive order invoguing the power of the surgeon general to prevent people from entering the united states because of the threat of a serious disease illness, and we're talking about the coronavirus panimdemic. rtant context to note here is this idea of using the public health autrity to shut down the border is not something that oreinated as a novel respo to this unprecedented pandemic. it's actuall somhing that stephen miller, president trump's chief advisish on immigration ha come up with years ago, shortly after president trump took office. he's been looking for a way to opportunity with te got that coronavirus, as my reporting has shown. democrats are sayiisuse violates u.s. law, with this new licy. what's behind that argument? >> what they're talking about is the trafficking ctims protection act, a decades' old law designed to protect this very population we're talking about, kids who come to the

united states on their own, and it's not hard to understand why special protections have been put in place, when you thinks about what ike for someone as young as a 10-year-old to be traversing international borders on their own. they really are targets for exploitation of any kind. it doesn't always happen, but because of the vulnerability they face from people who may want to kidnap them or may want to extort their families for this law was created to try tos, prevent that from happening and to give them two otipportu, actually, really, they are entitled to apply for asylum, to try to win protection in the united states, and to basically make sure thre's no provision of the immigration lawco that d offer them protections before they're sent home and it's designed to ensure that when the united states sends them home, thy're not put in harm's way. >> reporter: caitlni dickerson of the "new rk timhank you so much. >> thank you.

>> woodruff: predent trump counts brazilian president jai spirit.ndred an al but not even their closess prevented mr. trump from saying yesterday that hs considering banning brazilians from traveling to the u.s. the coronavirus crisis in that country is one of the world's most dire by several metrics.ls bolsonaro iscoming under attack by a popular former azilian president, who is re-emerging on the political scene after being released from prison. amna nawaz spoke with luiz inácio lula da silva late last week. >> nawaz: in late 2019, former brazilian president luiz inacio lula da silva-- known widely as just lula-walked out of prison after 580 days, and stepped right back onto the political stage.

>> ( translated ): today, i'm a guy that doesn't have a job. a president without a pension, not even a television in my apartment. my life is totally blocked. thing i'm certain of is that i have more courage to fight than before. >> nawaz: his top targets? the current president of brazil, jair bolsonaro, and his allies, whom lula claims wrongy convicted him of corruption in 2017. a conviction he's noappealing. today, the focus of lula's criticism is bolsonaro mishandling of the covid-19 pandemic. >> ( translated ): we have an invisible enemy which we do not know. we do not have the medication to cure it, and many leaders such as the predent of brazil and the president of the u.s. are not treating it seriously, with the necessary precautions to face the pandemic. >> nawaz: to date, more than 18,000 brazilians have died of running rampant through is vulnerable communities-- the sprawling, crowded urban areas

known as favelas-- and among indigenous communities in the amazon and other remote regions. the death toll in lan america's largest country is now thsixth-worst in the world the total number of infections ranks third globally. but expertbelieve the government is likely vastly underreporting the number of cases, and fear whatill follow. do you believe that brazil will become the next global epicenter for this pandec? >> ( translated ): i think brazil runs the risk of becoming thnext epicenter of the pandemic. the country alone has more people contaminated and deaths than all of south america. the problem we have in brazil, and this is my present concern, is that the pandemic is beginning to reach the poorest places and peripheries throughout the country. >> nawaz: like president trump,r president bolsdownplayed early concerns over the virus. he clashed with health officials, firing his first health m his approach.iticized his second health minister stepped down after one month on e job. and he's peddled misinformation, hiading both facebook and twitter to removposts

saying that the drug hydroxychloroquine w "working in all places." bolsonaro-- who's so far been unable to make good on his promise to fix a faltering economy-- has also pushed for brazilian businesses to re-open, mimicking president trump's message. >>translated ): people are dying-- they are! i'm sorry, i'm sorry. ecmore will die-- but much, much more, if thomy continues to be destroyed bye thosasures. >> nawaz: supporters, bolsonaro's backers have taken to the streets, in defiance of local social distancing orders. >> ( translated ): president bolsonaro likes to copy, to actions.resident trump's that is, president bolsonaro believes president trump is a h higher being, simply copies everything trump says. and bolsonaro does not discuss the pandemic. offends the supreme court, native indigenous people, blacks, won, congress, senate,th oppositi, governors, mayors, but he does not takepa care of themic. >> nawaz: in recent weeks,

though, lula has escalated his attacks, saying in one recent interview that brazilian society has the "right to remove" bolsonaro. you don't have votes in congress to impeach him, he's unlikely to step down. so what exactly are you calling on people to do? >> ( translated ): i think it is very difficult for any president to continue in office doing what bolsonaro is doing in brazil. he is not governing he is constantly producing fake news, he spends the nights writing tweets, he does not wear a mask, he goes out to the i thin and society expects, the house of representatives should start an peachment procedure, to discuss whether this man has the necessary political conditions to continue to govern this country. >> nawaz: i juea want to be about this, president da silva-- you are calling for the impeachment process against president bolsonaro to begin. you believe that should start. >> ( translated ): i think thatc if bolsonatinues to act irresponsibly as he has been doing, the people will not

accept him for threeore years. i am not in favor of removing a president every year through an impeachment procs, i am in favor of a government that truly governs the country, respecting democracy. >> nawaz: lula himself h faced despite leaving office afterth two term sky-high popularity, he was ensnaredye ars later in a massive corruption and bribery scandal. lula maintains he did nothing wrong. >> ( translated ): for the past four years, i have been askingo themove any one of the charges held against me. so far nothing has been proven. >> nawaz: and in another recent twist, the judge who convicted lula was later handpicked as arstice minister by bolson and just last month, he resigned, saying the president pressured him to fire the police chief. even today, lula remains popula amonazilians, and when pressed, would neier confirm nor deny he would run again, when bolsonaro's term is up in 2022. but he is ill making the pitch directly to brazilians, begging them to once ain believe in

his workers party, known as the p.t., by its portuguese initials.ou why they believe things would be any better today, at erthis moment of crisis, uhe workers' party or under you? under anyone else? >> ( translated ): i will tell you something. first of all, peopled believe in the p.t. because it was the party that brought the greatest social inclusion in brazil's history. that is, in 13 years, we did what had not been done in the y last 1rs in the country. we invested the most in employment, education, health, electrical power, socialim provement for the poor. that is why they should believe. >> nawaz: a former leare- emerging to fight once again, amid political turmoil and the uncertainty of a pandemic, now setting its sights on brazil. for the pbs newshour, i'm amna nawaz.

>> woodrf: even as states are trying to reopen the economy, a new pbs newshour/npr/marist poll found that 77% of americans worry about a second wave of infections yet to come. this comes as computer-based models suggest the u.s. will pass its own grim milestone by june-- 100,000-plus deaths. that higher projection is arriving even sooner than some of the models estimated just weeks ago. but models are not crystal balls. the work that goes into making them-- and their ultimate rpose-- is more complicated than you might be able to tell from the headlines. miles o'brien explains, in his latest report for our ries, "the leading edge." >> reporter: we live in a complicated world, filled with more data than insight. finding a patho clarity is not easy-- even on a good day. and these are not good days. so how can we take a huge amount

of data and make it understandable, so we can see the future? >> you can't believe every number that comes out. but if we don't try to formulate our thinking about a complex process, then we'll be running blind. >> reporter: betz halloran is an infectious disease modeler. she writes mathematical formulas that define the chaotic, exponential spread of ion. a biostatistician at seattle's fred hutchinson cancer research cent, she's part of the team that curates the global epidemic and mobility model, or gleam. >> the gleam model is a big mobility model that can answer global questions. >> reporter: gleam begins with travels down the many paths of exponential growth, constant calculating who is susceptible; exposed; infectious; and recovered. s-e-i-r, or seir.

>> you can structure it in many different ways. but usually, when we talk about infectious disease modeling, that's the basic sort of meat and potatoes of what's going to be in model. >> reporter: but the model does not stop there. it factors in the entire global transportation network, inudinairlinhedule.o >>e question we were asking way back then was, where is it going to spread? if it gets into the united states, where would it go firs and once it gets in, then we could use gleam to look at the question of, how much is it going to spread in the different places, where is it going to go first? and then we predicted that pretty well.>> eporter: halloran and her team did accurately predict where covid-19 would first surge in the united states, but as the pandemic wore on, the limitations of the models became more evident. after all, no one really knows how the virus is transmitted, who's likely to get sick and who won't, who's likely to die, whun might have iy.

all those questions won't be answered uil there is widespread testing. so in the meantime, the models muddle on with setimes dizzyingly confusing results. one of them, from britn's imperial college, predicted two million covid-19 deaths in t united states-- but that assumed no human response, no social distancing. >> all models are wrong, but i think it's important tod remember that. gt reporter: nearby, at the university of wa's institute for health metrics ann evaluatithey built a much simpler model that started with a specific question in mind: did the healthcare system have the capacityo treat a surge of covid-19 patients? chris murray is the director. he and his team wrote a model that, unlike many others at the time, factored in the human >> if you ignore tavioral response, you're going to massively overshoot.

and so, i think it is a reasonle strategy to try to look at models, like the economists do, which build in how individuals, local government, state government are going to respond to the problems 'r they unfold. >> so i'm sure yinterested in seeing all the states. >> reporter: producing speedy state-by-state results consistently lower projections, thuniversity of washington model was frequently cited by the whithouse in daily coronavirus briefings. >> and i think if you ask chris murray, he would say... >> reporter: but the model initially assumed there would be widespread adopti social distancing restrictions in the u.s. once it came clear that wasnha ppening, the modeling team went back to the drawing board, releasing a new version on y 4. it now uses mobility data gleaned from cell phone usage to better understand ho cwell people aplying with the expert advice. as a resul that model's projection for the total u.s.

death toll by august 4 from covid-19 instantly went from about 72,000 to 134,000. >> it's sensible to try to look at a wide array of models and try to look at how, do they tell you the same story, are they it's very confusing, i think, for many decision-makers to navigate through some of the models. >> we're going to start off wite this w. >> reporter: weather forecasters are some of the most adept at navigating the inherent uncertainties of modeling. problems.to have some travel >> reporter: after all, it's been 70 years since they firstmo ran l through a computer to create a forecast. it's been steady improvement ever since. it's now possible to reliably forecast seven days in advance with 8 accuracy. but with a novel virus, there are so many unknowns. and, weather models do not have to account for hum behavior.

marshall shepherd is dirtor of the atmospheric sciences program at the university of georgia. >> it's very important when consuming these coronavirus models and weather models to consume the uncertainty that we know is inherent. but we have a way to get around that in weather, callin ensemble mod >> reporter: ensemble modeling, meaning combining the predictions of many dit models. it's a crucial tool that has greatly improvedorecasting the weher. and in the past three years, seasonal influenza as well. nick reich is an associate professor of biostatistics at the university of massachusetts- amherst. rs forg with the cen disease control and prevention, he leads a team that builds ensemble models to improve predictions of the spread of the flu. >> i don't think any one model should be viewed as gospel truth. when you just use one model, you end up with a too strong reliance on one particular set

of assumptions and one particular viewpoint, and this consider multiple critical to together. >> reporter: the influen models are informed by up to 20 years of experience with theu s and the accuracy of the models. reich and his team have now built a covid-19nsemble model. but it, of course, does not have the benefits of a long backstory. >> we do have hundreds of years of theory about how to build mathematical models of infectious disease, but have they ever been tested in real w time in th, with all of the data soues that are available to us? no. we're building this car as it'st careening do highway, and we're learning about these models as we go. >> reporter: infectious disease modelers are scrambling to figure out where we are headed, depending on the decisions we make.

if we take the time to better understand what the mols can and cannot do, maybe we will do the same as we search for the path back to normalcy. for the pbs newshour, i'm miles o'brien. >> woodruff: throughout this entire crisis, questions the federal government was noty better prepared for such a challenge. as william branghatells us, those questions include how the trump administrationiews the role of government and civil service broadly. >> brangham: that's right, judy, most people would agree that the scale and speed of this pandemic would have taxed the abilities and resources of any government or any president. but the trumadministration's

approach has come under some intense scrutiny. we connect now with two writerso who haved closely at this response. yuval levin is the director of social, cultural and e nstitutional studies at the american enterprstitute. he's the author of "a time to build: how recommitting to our institutions can revive the american dream." and, george packer's recent articles in "the atlantic" look at the trump administration's response to this crisis. he is also author of a recent book on the diplomat, richard holbrooke, and before that, author of "the unwinding, an inner history of the new america," among other books. gentlemen, thank you both very much for being here. george packer, to you first, you have written that e seeds of the administration's response were in some ways predictable, given the way the administration viewed the role of the government pre-seeding this crisis. can you explain that a little bit hire? >> i trump spent the first three years of his administration almost in combat

with his own government, his own bureaucracy, pooting outeople he perceived as disloyal, placing cronies and sycophants in key political jobs, and creating an atmosphere of fear civil service so that, by the time the pandemic came, there was a kind of passivity and even absenteeism in big areas of the federal government that trump had seep as n servi purpose beyond his own personal political interests. so once he needed a bureaucracy to do things in order to keep the country safe, to protect us, it wasn't there, either jobs were unfilled or people were, in

a sense, hiding under theirus desks bethey knew if they said something trump didn't er them, would come aft and that's been happening throughout the pandemic. >>eporter: yuval levin, same question to you. you have written there has been certainly a den graduion of expertise and somewhat chaotic decision-making prwhess within the house. do you think that has also affected the pandemic response? >> i do.re i with what george has said and i think the way that he put it in his recent pieces in "the atlaic" has been quite right. but i would focus particularly on the white house staff and the team around the president which expresses the president's own attitude about the relationship he should ve to the rest of the government. the white house staff is there n enable the president to receive informat the form of decisions to be made and to procesit, to listen to expertise, to make decisions, and the fact tat process has never existed in this white house. there has neer been a

decision-making.ture of that's a problem at any time, but it becomes an enormous problem at a moment of crisis, when you have to have reliable chain of command, you have to have a reliable process for making decisions and distinctions between what's said in public andrivate and how the president thinks about his task of communicating to th public in a reassuring way. none of that is happening in an effective way this administration. what you're finding is a president who is understanding of the job has not en formed by any experience at any level of governmen for the first time in our history, we have a president who seniorilitary officer or as a senior public official beforede becoming pre. instead, he comes into the job as a performer, and he sees performer putting on a show.ic the fact, is in a crisis, the president has to be an inside player, he has to be making decisions and operating the arms

of the govnment from within. this president has no iea how that works, no trust in the rest the system, and at time of pressure and crisis, it shows. >> reporter: george, you and m yuval aring the same point, but devil's advocate. we have seen other crises affect other administrations. isn't some flat-foot nepsz and some initial chaos and confusion to be expented, especially thisvirus really does, in someth ways, trum severity of those other cr crises? >> yes, and in other countries we look to as examples of well-functioning democracies, in europe and asia, even the ones that seem to hae done well, germany, south korea, they'vemi madetakes. others, spain and italy, have bad as or worse than ours.n as

i think the difference is whau't all been just describing which is that these are the kind of unavoidable blunders of big, unwieldy governments facet with something very few governments plan for, anticipate and are ready for, andery few politicians have the courage and foresight to get out ahead of facts and listen to their scientists and experts and do things the public might not like even before the public knowsth 're doing it. but in trump's case we see a white house that's continually undermined its own administration's response at every step of the way. it's as if, at every momt,he whenuestion is what is the best way to get out ahead of this and minimize suffering an death, trump has done the opposite. i don't know if that's true in ry other country in the ld, and that's a direct result of

his idea of what it means to beh president,h i think, in his case, that means to use power to serve his own interests, not to lead the country, n to solve the country's problems, certainly not to bring theet country togr, insad, to divide us in his own interests. reporter: yual, picking up on george's point here, it hasug been br up several tmes that ithe president really does see this as primarily a political issuto solve, not a public health one, one could argue thathe president should have used all the leavers at his power in the federal government to ramp up testing, to deal wth the shortages of protective hepplies. why do you thinkresident was seemingly reluctant to use the leavers of government if one could argue those might have saved lives and those might have been then strengthened his electoral chances in november?

>> reluctance dosn't end up being the term. the prsident has been incapable of using the leavers of power in an effective way. this is ath crisiat would overwhelm and has overwhelmedman governonnts. the quess how do you learn and mobilize over time? that the government was nod prepared in advce is not an indictment. but that we have not learne over -- by mistakes over two or three mohs and we're basically where we were in terms of our capacity to establish decisionmaking processes that helps us improve over time, it's the fault of the senior executives in the trump adnistration. no way warned it. our country has done some things well. the american public has been willing to make tremendou sacrifices, many governors and some federal officials have stepped up, buttop has a distaingt role here, a coordinating and ressuring role that he has simply failed to

perform, and i don't dhink that'scision he's made, i think it's just an incapacity at's been revead and, of course, which was evident in some respects before but becomes especially problematic in a l moment of criske this. >> reporter: all right, really interesting conversation. yul levin, george packer, thank you both very much for beg here. >> woodruff: truck drirs are the front lines of the skndemic, facing lower pay these days and higher as they deliver much-needed food and supplies. tonight's "brief but spectacular" features kansasba city-based h and wife truckers chante and ron drew. after ron began experiencing symptoms of covid-19 last month, producer steve goldbloom conducted a series of interviews with the couple over the course of several weeks. >> ron and i are a married couple. we drive a teafreight across

the country. we haul a lot of groceries, at produce, a lot of meats, things like that. >> truck drivers, we've always been, like, we don't get a lot of respect, we're kind of looked down upon. but people saw how crazy things got when their toilet paper ran out. can you imagine if you go to the grocery store and there's no i fothere? i don't know why they're not personal equipment for drivers. you need us to run so you can have food. >> we've got two beds. the bottom bed we leave as a e table so we have some pl sit and eat. >> when i'm driving, he's sleepi, and when he's sleeping, i'm driving. >> i first started experiencing symptoms whei was in phoenix last week. mostly like, body aches, hurting in my knees, hurt in my bows. my fever would just spike and ia justed, just aching and aching. >> hot, cold chills. >> hot, cold chills. but i trooped it out, got her

done. >> and thewe just went today to get his test, finally. >> you roll up and then they and then they just come through the window and squeegee your sinuses. >> i fured since if ron's positive, obviously i'll be positive as well. so we figure, save the testingr mebody else. we're both got it, probably. >> hopefully we'll know by wednesday at the latest. >> i feel horrible. since saturday, i've not been able to get really out of bedr ything. i've dropped about 30 pounds. i've never experienced anything like this, where you sleep constantly. >> we got ron's covid test back and it was positive. i opted at first not to get tested.pr i figured i'ably positive. but then after talking to the earse, she said it's probably a good idea to go and get tested. i'm not showing too many eisymptoms other than just extremely fatigued.

i'm pretty sure that i'll test positive. we'vbeen in contact with the company that we are leasing a truck from, and they've suspended r truck payments for as long as needed. we're probably gng to go lay down right now and just rest and recover and hope and pray that this.y else has to go through >> i was tested for covid. i tested negative. our doctor and the health department both told us to go ahead and assume that i had it,l since i hathe same symptoms as ron. the doctor told me tey're getting a lot of false negatives, just with the wayot that af the people are doing the swab testing. but we've been slowly recovering. >> one morng you wake up, you feel great. you go outside, just do a couple things, and next thing you know you're wind, you're in bed, you're sleeping again for 12 hours straight during the day. almost 22 days, we've been off work. we got turned on to a resource called st. christopher's fund,

which is for truck drivers. hed they ended up making our rent payment foronth. that's huge. which helped a ton. but luckily for us, the compvey we dor, they got freight right now.ou >> i'm glafirst trip is going out to seattle. it's always fun going out that way. get the wind in your hair, and get the dogs back out at the rest areas, and do what we do best. >>his thing is no joke. like, your lung capacity doesn't come bacup right away. you still can't taste or smell for god knows how long this is going to be. i still get pain in my knees that i didn't have before. just don't brush it f thinking, "99% of us are going to get well." well, you're not going to t 100% well. >> my advice would be to have compassion for each other, and quss trying to hurry the pro of getting back out there and getting back to work, because it'll happen.ou it's just,e got to listen to the experts. before the pandec, i think a lot of people didn't realize where their food came from.'v

heard other friends that have seen signs that people saying, truck drivers have never asked for hazard pay. you know, in fact, our rates have gone down since the s pandemicrted. so we're making less overall than when this first started. we just want to still be able to do our jobs, and i just hope p thple don't forget about it as time goes on. my name is chante drew. >> my name is ron drew. >> and this is our "brief but spectacular" take on living through covid-19. truck drivers.hank you both, and and you can find all our "brief but spectacular" segments online at www.pbs.org/newshour/brief and online, a new pbs newshour/ npr/marist poll out today finds that most americans think it will take six months or longer for daily fe to return to a relative sense of normal.

read more on our website, www.pbs.org/newshour. and that is the nehour for tonight. i'm judy woodruff. join us online, and again here tomorrow evening. for all of us at the pbs newshour, thank you, please stay safe, and we'll see you soon. >> major funding for the pbs newshour has been provided by: >> when it comes to wireless, consumer cellular gives its customers the choice.pl our no-contracs give you as much-- or as little-- talk, text and data as you want, and our u.s.-based customer service team is on hand to help.or to learn go to consumercellular.tv >> life n't a straight line, and sometimes you can find yourself heading in a new direction. fidelity is hereo help you work through the unexpected, with financial planning and advice for today, and tomorrow. >> bnsf railway. >> financial services firm raymond james.fo >> the fordation. working with visionaries on the

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hello, everyone, and to "amanpour & co." here's what's coming up. president trump dismisses yet another inspector general. i ask sena it matters and what's congress going to do about it? and -- america first. by the grim numbers, the world's highest corona yn virus infections and deaths. i ask "the new orker's" susan glasser and ed of "the final times" how a perpower has been humbled at home and abroad. then, the navajo nation hth highest rate of infections per capita in the united states. i speak to the president. and -- have what the world needs is moreflexibility. not about one going to another. brazilians are