captioning sponsored by newshour productions, llc >> woodruff: good evening. i'm judy woodruff. on the newshour tonight: the final sprint. the candidates make their closing pitches to voters in critical states, as the caai enters its final weekend. then, battleground arizona. how much difference hispanic voters could make in a sta that has become increaengly cotitive. >> this could be the election where everyone understou can no longer win an election withe.t winning the latino vot >> woodruff: and, it's friday. mark shields and davidrooks weigh the changing supreme court and share what they're looking for on election ndght. all thatore, on tonight's pbs newshour.

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more at kf.org. >> and with the ongoinsupport of these institutions: and frnds of the newshour. >> this program was made possible by the corporation for public broadcasting. and by contrutns to your pbs station from viewers like you. thank you. >> woodruff: the presidential campaign is coming downo the wire: one last weekend, only three days left to win hear, minds, and votes. ite house correspoent yamiche alcindor has been tching a full day of rallies, and has this report. >> alcindor: the last friday before election day, t a candidates are trying to make every minute count.

>> we're doing a lot of traveling. we'll be doing a lot of rallies. we have some big one >> i don't take anything for granted. we're going to work for every ngle vote, up to the last minute. >> alcindor: today, the focus was on the midwest. first up for president trump was waterford township imichigan. >> this is great group. four days from now, we're going to win this state. >> alcindor: the day's schedules then converged, witplanned stops for both candidates in wisconsin. it's a state setting single-dayo records fod-19 infections and deaths. in green bay, present trump claimed the crisis would soon be over. >> the venus will be out very, very soon. we've donen incredible job with the ventilators, the vaccines, the therapeutic. >> reporter: in the last 2 thundershowers, the >> alcindor: in fact, in the last 24 hours, the nation had its worst day yet-- 91,000 new and, with total canearing nine million, hospitalizations are up 50% this month. eneaking in st. paul, minnesota, former vice presjoe biden blasted president trump's

attempts to downplay the virus' seveity. it's a last-ditch effort to win a state he narrowly lost in 2016. more than 1.5 million ballots in the state have already been accepted. and, minnesotans who still haven't sent itheir ballots thought they would be counted so long as they were postmarked by november 3, and arriv within a week after the election, but last night, a federal apals court ruled against that grace period-- ordering the state to separate those late-arriving ballots. banwhile, biden also campaigned to bringk another republican-leaning state. earlier today, mo swung by dees, iowa. >> we're going to change the course of the country, and quite frankly, the world. right he are in iowa, wi of you! the final days, please keep your sense of empowerment, keep your sense of optimism! a >> alcindor: while the presidential pefuls targeted the midwest, the running mates had their eyes on the sun belt. vice president mike pence visited flagstaff, arizona.n

>>vember third, we need arizona to show america that this is trumpountry. (cheers and applause) >> reportin: and >> alcr: and senator kamala harris made the rounds in texas. flip a state that 't backedg to a democratic predentl candidate since 1976- tbut polls sh race is close there. one of hertops came in fo worth. >> today is the last day of early voting in texas, and you all have been doing your thing! >> alcindor: with re than nine million ballots already cast, texas today surpassed its total turnout for the 2016 election. in some places, texans are voting around the cl literally. officials in harris county, the biggest in texas, opened up allc night polling last night. >> oh yeah, it's very convenient, especially for the people that work at night and have to sleep during the day, so yeah, it's very convenient. >> alcindor: for the cdidates and the rest of the country, there are now less than four dayseft to find out what thi unprecedented turnout will mean.

>> woodruff: so, how do the trump and biden campaigns plan to te advantage of these las days before voting ends? yamiche joins me now, along wioh lisa desjardins, following the biden campaign. hello to both of you. yamiche, in your piece, you talked about how the candidates are addressing covid. with regard to the president's e thinkn, do his peopl he's hitting the right notes in the way he's talking about this virus? >> reporter: the nump campaignd president trump do believe that he is hitting the right notes in talking about covid9 as something that is getting too much attention and as saying that the viruis essely is not that bad. it's a remarkable case he's making b he's saying three particular things. he's saying, one, i got the virus and i'm doing fine as will all americans who get the virus. that is in contrast to the fact we have 229,000 americans who have died from this virus.

the president is now seeing over and over again at these rallis that hospitad doctors are arficially inflating the thmbers of people who have coronavirus in order to get money. we're seeing alth offials push back very hard on that. the american medical association came out today and said that is a mr. licious lie and not true. the other thing president trump is saying is covid 19 is getteg too much antion from the media. a remarkable thing to say i special whe47n we have tates where the virus is surging and dr. birx is waing governors on a call today that coronavirus is on the rise and people need to be vigilant ability social distancing and masks. but the president thinks he's making this argument for peopl who are tired t of being in ther homes and locked down ansed ially making the case people should be able to live therapeutics and vaccines will be on the way, something that joe biden has really really attack and said that t president is not being very responsible, but it is the presidene 's closing mess the american people. >> woodruff: and, lisa, with

regard to biden campaign, do they believe he is seeing what he needs to say at this stage of how muh of a focus is it going to be in these remaining days? >>he biden campaign has a broad focus, but, yes, the coronavirus and the president's response to i pis a bce of it. in general, the biden campaign is going to do what ty have been doing for months, convey that this is a president who has been bad for this country, r th opinion, and who has led to more chaos and less stability. with the idea that joe biden is someone who carn the country back into stability and, even more, heal the divides that they say the trump administration has made worse. with regard to what the iresident is saying about the coronavirus, spe to multipoule biden campaignrces they say that sort of contrasts with reality. the president, his son andi others portr a situation where things are getting better when, in fact, mo americans

know things seem to be getting worse at this moment. they say that helps them. one campaign aide told me most americans know someone who has been affected by croes, someone who has ed, lost a job, been sick, and then in the president's message justag goes nst that. >> woodruff: and, yamiche, to broaden this out, utwhat an the final days are the states the trump folks are looking ag wt at do faifl good about, what are they worried about? >> reporter: in the final days of this election between today and elecon day, presidenolump isding 17 rallies in eight states. i want to put up a map for people tshow all the places the president is going. he's going to critical battleground case as wel states he's worried about, ieu, florida, georgia, maninnesota in the day before the election, he'll be in north carolina, pennsylvania, miigan and wisconsin. the trump campaign feels confident about florida, they tell me i've talked to multiple courses who say they feel confident about the the

president being able to get enough black and whether tino men to run up his numbers there, ant they are very worried about the coronavirusd about whether or not people especially who lost loved ones whether not ey wil not p happy about the president's handling and erhetoric and will not v for him and break for joe biden. >> woodruff: lisa, same question toou, what are the states the biden camp is focusing on in these last hours, and what do they feel good aband what are they worried about in. yamiche's map and her.e 's the biden campaign map for the last few days. as she reported in the package, you see the president going to three states today but also in the next couple of days he will be spending time in michigan and in pennsylvania. this is really impoant. pennsylvania, all four key members to have the bid campaign, joe biden, kamala harris and their spouses will be in pennsylvania on monday. that ia focus for this campaign. president obama won and that

back.president biden can take more thing the biden campaign feels good about their outreach to hispanics particularly in texas and arizona. >> woodruff: awe know the biden camp will have former president obama on aithe with mr. biden over the weekend in michigan. lisa desjardins, yamiche alcindor, down to the wire, thank you both. and now, to help walk us through the battleground map and each candate's pathways to the 270 electoral votes, i'm joined by npr's senior political editor and correspondent, domenco montanaro.an domenico, you so much for being with us again. we are less than a week out. we're just, what, three days out. what is the b picture look like right now? >> well, the big picture, in our map, so far, we have it at 279 electoral votes for joe biden for states thaare leaning toward him or likely to go his

rection, and only 125 for president trump for states leaning in his direction or likely to go in his direction. so, you know, this hasbeena crazy year because, when you look at all of these states in yellow that are the tossup states from arizona, texas, georgia, florida, north carolina, ohio and iowa, all of those states are reason the margin of error, judy, so that gives a lot docrats a lot of pause when they look at a number that says, wow, joe biden is u p bylot, but that could all tip very quickly especially if there's a polling err that, by the way, would have to be a by the way, there's a scenario in which, if trump were to win over all of those tossup states and the next atin that oulling average that would be really important be pennsylvania, and you would wind up with a 259 to 259 map. that's totally possible if all

of those states within the rgin of error go trump's way. and while that seems unlikely, president trump certainly pulled off that inside straight inof 2016, and a lo people wondering if he could do it again. honestly, it's the only y almost the oay for him to win. >> woodruff: a tie -- or close a tie. just thinking about it gives me a big headache, domenico. but you've looked at this. a path to victory for each one of thescandidates, what uld it look like? >> yeah, and if i can give you a little bit more of a headache, if pennsylvania is that last state, they are pretty eslow at counting the vote and they don't have the experience with mail-in ballots, with all of these mail-in ballots that have come in this year, thairchts hadin tt he past so that could leave is waiting for a long time. as lisa ws saying in the earlier segment the both for joe biden starts in the midwest rust michigan, wisconsin,

pennsylvania, if joe biden can win there that's e rebuild the blue cal scenario. after that, icing, and he coul run up the score, frankly. there's a chance we esee a bidn blowout. that's possible as a tru's squeaker. for the trump's path, everybody goes through the sun belt plus one. he's got to win all the republican leaning states like arizona, tex florida, georgia, north carolina and add one, he could add pennsylvania, heould add a michigan, he couldn't add wisconsin. wisconsin, by the way, giving you rale anxieties here, if he were to do tha atnd pick up wisconsin, we could be in a tiec ario, 269-269, but that the just to giveyo ev headaches. >> woodruff: you're talking about a big one. finally, domenico, you're not only looking atap geo, you're looking at demographics, who the voters are, how do they break o down.

whatu see there that could move the needle this election? >> the biggest potential political realignment we could see is with white voters. joe biden man overperforming with white voters. if whites with a college degree come out in a way with a margin we're seeing in the polls for joe biden, you could see a wipeout for republicans in a lot of places, in the house is inch particular, ws why the house is seen to be going puin lican's favor. you know, that is a real key demographic, whites with cel degrees, suburban voters, those and biden has been winning them by big margins in the polls. >> woodruff: fascinating. so many questions. we're looking for answers on election night, as we see those votes come in. domenico montanaro of npr, thank you. >> you'reme wel

>> woodruff: in the day's other newsthe number of coronavirus cases worldwide exceeded 45 million, fueled by surgein the united states and europe. belgium is europe's worst hotspot, and this evening, t government there imposed a partial lockdown-- restricting travel, shopping and even family contac for six weeks. >> ( translated ): we are movino in the directia reinforced confinement with a single objective: to prevent health care svices from collapsing. i realize that these are particularly drastic and painful measures. but they are the fruit of a long reflection based on facts. >> woodruff: france and germany also imposed new lockdowns and restrictions this week. an earthquake rattled parts of turkeynd greece today, killing at least 19 people and injurireg han 700. the tremor knocked down buildings and triggereund a smal i. b

chaos asuildings collapsed in turkey's third-largest city, izmir. panicked residents fled into the streets, paramedics rushed to treat the injurd ed, anews worked furiously to pull out those apped beneath the wreckage. hundreds of people were hurt and zens had to be rescued. >> ( translated ): i thought that the ground is shattereotd. you cahink at that moment. all you try to do is to go out. everywhere was collapsing down. luckily our building was intact. we were really panicked and managed to go out at the very last minute. >> woodruff: the earthquake struck in the aegean sea betcoen the turkist and the greek island of samos in the early afternoon, local time. the shock wave sent a small tsunami into a coastal district near izmir, trigring street flooding. and the earthquake could be felt as far away as turkey's biggest

city, istanbul, some 300 miles from izmir; and in greece's capital, athens. seismologists predict the shallow depth of the quake's epicenter could lead tors hocks for several weeks or even a month. here in the u.s., people in coastal louisiana and mississippi are also picking up the pieces in the aftermath of hurricane zeta. the storm washed boats onto streets anyards after coming ashore wednesday, and it wrecked homes and left widespread outages well into northern georgia. the hurricane is also blamed for six deaths. annvestigation into australia's devastating wildfire season reportshat thin will only get worse, and it calls for deed climate change projections. the so-called "black summer" fires killed at least 33 peopleo and destroye than 3,000 homes. officials said it's clear that the country needs to overhaul

its fire response.ly >> frathe federal response to the bushfires, up until christmas, was a debacl v it wy difficult to get anybody to listen about what was happening, and there was insufficient funding flong out to the states and territories. this must change. >> woodruff: a new wilire ason has now begun in australia, but forecasts call for above-average rainfall, in contrast to last year's drought. in poland tonight, protesters staged what may be the larst rally yet in warsaw, aimed at a opposing a court ruling on abortion. the decision barred termination of fetuses with birth defects, even if severe. thousands of demonstratorse converged despficial warnings to stay home as covid cases surge. p the nation's tsecutor threatened criminal charges against organizers. back in this country, a federal judge in washington d.c.

ordered the u.s. postal servicu, to ethat millions of ballots get delivereby election day. thorder call for "extraordinary measures" at processing sites where on-time delivery of ballots has dropped low 90%. and, the covid surge spooked wall street again. the dow jones industrial average lost 157 points to close at 26,501. the nasdaq fell 274 points, and ths&p 500 gave up 40. for the week, the dow lost 6.5%a thaq and the s&p dropped 5.5%. still to come on the newshour: a new report exposes how the trump administration continues to separate chdren from their families. belgian hospitals struggle to respond to a massive influx of covid patients. we examinehe importance of the latino vote in arizona. plus, much more.

>> woodruff: u.s. border authorities are alleg violating an agreement with mexico, and expling minors to mexico even if they come from other countries in central america. the children crossed the southern border into the u.s. illegally, but as thw york times" now reports, mexico is not where they're supposed to be sent. amna nawaz has the details, and the questions it raises about child welfare. >> naw: judy, during the pandemic, thousands of children their home countries after to crossing the u.s. border. but the "times" repeats today, at 200 of those children, mostly from guatemala, honduras and el salvador, were sent to mexico inead, despite having no family or connections there. caitlin dickerson brokthe

story, and fills in the rest of the picture for us now. caitlin, welcome back to the "newshour" and thanks for being with us. you have covered a number ofab storiet the care and custody of migrate children by the tatrump adminisn, family separation, kids being held ino tells before they were depored, but you said this practice that ve uncovered has potentially more devastating complications. why? what did you mean by that? >> well, i think the easiest way to underand it is tout yourself in the shoes of a parent. an, you know, there are a lot of different circumes that are leading kids to cross the american border alone,but at ast one of them which is quite common is, you know, parents end acup staying bk in home country, and a child makes the journey to the united states on their own tbecause they do feel safe, you know, again, for a number of fferent reasons they cross the american border alone and the parent has an expectation of where their child is going to end up and almost in every case when we know a chirold ces the border alone, they have somebody in the united states who's waitg for them.

but now what we're talking about is, again, group, this unprecedented policy that under which the administration started expelling kids back to their home countries, often without notifying parents, that was surprising enough, and now what we've learned and what we've reported today is that come kids, rather than being expeld back into their home countries, are being sent to different no connections and sent into the hands of child wauelfare orities there. so again i think the easiest way towns why this is such a big deal, why it's so concerning for parents is iyou put yourself in their position and you d find your chids up in a country that you didn't expect them to. >> reporter: what about the u.s. government officials you spoke to. why do they say it's happening? >> there's a lot of confusion, to be honest with you, when we talked to the u.s. government officials about what we discovered. i first confirmd this wa happening with an internal email i got access to. it was written by an assistant chief of the border patrol sand ms to be sounding the

alarm in the email. he says, you know, there aresu severa pectd instances of this happening, it's a major problem, it needs to stop, it puts this whole coronavirus border ban in jeopardy, the one we have been discussing, so we brought the email and the ports of individual cases we've heard, i've talked to a couple of parts who have been in this situation, we brought it to high-ranking officials who are speaking, you know, officially to the "new york times," and yes, this is happening, but, you know, then they sort of said, well, but it violates th the american agreement withmexico. they sill haven't given us an explanati as to who the expulsions to mexico were an accident, whether accidently from one port of entry to another, there are still a lot of big questions as to why this is happening.in >> reporterust a few connection we have left, we've alknown about the hundredsf children who after the trump

administration family sraon policy years later are still not united with their families. what dwe know about the children? who has responsibility for them now and will theybe reunited with their families? >> these children, as r as we know, went into the hands of mexican child welfare authorities. ey have processes to reunite parents and childr but as we've learned time and time again in the last couple of years these processes take a long time, and, so, it could be a while before parents and children are brought back together. >> reporter: caisolin dick with an exclusive and important story tonight from the "n york times." caitlin, thank you so much for being with us. >> thanks for having me. >> woodruff: while the coronavirus surges again here in the u.s., it is also coming back with a vengeance in europe, and nowhere worse than in belgium, which is now the hot spot of the continent.

the southern, french-speaking wallonia region is particularly hardit. special correspondent lucy hough brings us this report from liege. >> reporter: it's a coronavirus tsunami. a crippling second wave that health officia say they can no longer control. the intensive care beds for covid-19 phoients in this ital in liege ar.e full admissions have been doubling every eight days. thventilators, monitors and glass isolation units are signs of a crisis wose than the first wave in the spring. if the presse continues, doctors here say they may soon be forced to choose who receives life-saving care. >> ( tranated ): where things stand right now, we're not having to make those choices. but if the wave keeps coming like this, we know we will have to. we're in constant dialogue with patients, being clear that we can't ensure everyone admitted to intensive care will make it through to rehabilitation. that's a reality we're already

dealing with. >> reporter: wallonia, the southern, french-speing region of belgium, now has one of the highest rates of infection in the world, with one in every thretests coming back sitive. from the start, belgium has been vulnerable to the virus. it's densely populated, with high rates of cross-border travel. the near-total relaxation of restrictions over the summer, combined with thd weather and return of schools in the fall, have created a perfect storm. months of preparation or now at hospitals like this one, there is enough eqprotective pment to go around. but there are critical shortages of people-- not enough doctors, nurses and other medical personnel to cope with the influx of covid-19 patients. the situation has become so critical in this region that some hospitals are askinges doctors and nuo keep working even if they've tested potive for the virus-- as long

as they are not displaying symptoms. it's to prevent the healthcarem system ftal collapse. >> ( translated ): we had 5% ofs and doctors that were positive with coronavirus, but not sick. we needed this 5% who arel essent treat all the patients we have. so we decided to let them work, otherwise we'd have to refuse patients, and all the consequences that would have. >> reporter: staff shortag are not limited to hospitals. with so many belgians isolating with covid-19, there are also reduced numbers of police officers on the streets and teachers in classrooms. to fill the gaps.ing drafted in the testing system is overwhelmed, with only esserentl woand symptomatic people able to access a test. like neighboring france, belgium has now introduced a newow

national loc closing all non-essential businesses and limiting social contacts. but, experts fear urgent action was needed earlier. >> ( measures came too late, that's clear, otherwise we wouldn't be in this position the problem is, what we do now will only have an effect in 10 to 12 days. but within 10 to 12 days, we also think we will be at the peak of hospital admissions. it is important that we restrict our contacts, so we dolat add anotheyer on the expected peak. >> reporter: but like elsewhere in europe, there are signs ofwn lockdoatigue, and rising anger towards nationalgo rnments. small demonstrations have taken place in belgium, but have stopped short of the violence and unrest seen on the streets of italy and germany. for week european governments have resisted full shutdowns. but the reality in hospitals like this e have lt little choice. the scenes in liege are a t

flashback se in lombardy in northern italy at the start ofhis crisis. a healthcare system pushed its limit-- and as the infection rate grows and the death toll ntinues to rise, nobody knows what the next few weeks will hold. for the pbs newshour, i'm lucy hough in liege. as a surprising battlegroundrged state in this year's presidential election. trump beat hillary clinton there by only 3.5% in 2016. latinos make up a quarotr of eligibles in the grand canyon state, and while polls show most latinos are supporting biden, stephanie sy reports, latinos are not a completely united voting bloc. >> sy: even in its reduced covid-careful capacity, chef

silvana salcido esparza's kitchen is buzzing. but it's her politics that are on the front burner ese days. >> it's the character tt counts. >> sy: esparza spent almost an hour with joe biden when he and senator kamala harris visited the barrio cafe in phoenix for a campaign stop. >> i see a soul there. see a man who has got conviction, who has empathy, who listens. >> sy: covid has put a strain oe business. battling an incurable the restaurant down early in the pandemic, and had to cancel her and her ployees' health insurance. do you think that if biden is elected on november things bwill get better for therio?th >> w it affects me or not me, whether the barrio cafe the point.r not, that's beside the point is that... the decay

will stop. >> i'm one of those very skeptical people. >> sy: a few miles from the barrio cafe, chawa magaña is packing online orders at the bilingual bookstore e's owned for five years. "palabras" is filled with books on issues like racial justice and indigenous rights and features authors of color. >> it reflects my politics very much so, because the bookstores run kindf by the community. i am driven by a mission that isn't just profit, so i need money in order to exist, right? but that's not the mn focus of the boomstore. >> sy:nity support, including an online fundraiser that raised more than $10,000, as well as grants, have kept tht shop goiough the pandemic. >> during covid, it's really difficult for small businesses to stay afloat. and we're seeing it. it's very visible. >> sy: do you feel like the democrats ha a bette- ? >> i feel as if t i caally trust trump at all when it comes

trto that, because of the k record, because of not taking protective measures for our communities as well. >> sy: with the covid pandemic ravaging many latino cmuties, she sent a mail-in ballot for biden, even though she's a foer bernie sanders supporter who says she's disillusioned by the two-party system. >> i mean, what is the other option, you know? >> sy: longtime arizona political watcher and joe garcia says both candidates have spent months courting arizona's latino small business owners. >> the democratic party has put money into arizona, for thtie firs in a long time, knowing it can win the state. >> sy: but you also have latinos who are pro-trump. >> i mean, you're talking maybe 20%. a suburb east of phoenix,a, which for decades has been staunchly conservative. even with a booming latino/ hispanic population, those conservative roots run deep. >> it's about policy. it's abo what affects lmyife

and if-- and what he ctys doesn't afy life. >> sy: mesa resident dominique rivas originally voted for trump in 2016 because of her son ray, who serves in the u.s. army. >> i feel that, tidall thi he still hasn't taken our country to war. and he is stilly son's best chance of survival. >> sy: and now, is that still the reason why you supportim, and have his sign on your lawn now? >> not only is he my son'best chance of survival now, but he is my business's best chance of survival now. >> sy: rivas started a minile notary bs during covid, and is making mo money ow than she ever did in her former government job. >> this new business that i created, this new life that i've created for my family has put me into a new tax bracket, has put me, a hispanic, new independent business owner. it's what the american dream is all about. >> sy: and if biden were to win the presidency? >> i feel what would come would be a bigger shutdown, maybe, possibly.

>> sy: because of c oid. >> becauf covid. i feel that that would have an effect on the mortgage industry, d that's-- that's a big part of my new business. >> sy: south of mesa, in the town of gilbert, we meet martha llamas in her neighborhood ofpe ably landscaped single- family homes. r life wasn't always picture- perfect. >> then he grabsy baby, throws them into the bed and grabs me, anstarts beating me with the gun. >> sy: llamas described a violent ex-boyfriend who she says almost killed her in 1996. it's a story she recounted on a stage with president trump during one of his more than arizona.en campaign stops to after she got out of rethe tionship, she found work as a janitoerr. >> my moi remember telling me, don't get any handouts.

go get a job. and when i started that job, i felt free, and it was amazing. you know, picking up trash or cleaning toilets o wdoing that, like,h, my god, this is great. >> s she rose through the company and now runs her own janitorial firm, which she owns with her husband ron. it has nearly 70 employees, and she says she's supporting trump in part because she wants to see obamacare fully repealed. >> a janitorial siness. you make 10% profit. how am i going to afford insurance for all my employees? that means if i do that, i might as well bst quit. >> s silvana esparza feels just the opposite. she noonly wants affordable health insurance for her employees, she favors raising the minimum wage. >> i believe in unity. i believe in the united states, not the divided states. i believe in respecting my fellow man. >> sy: whatever side thel f on, joe garcia says he is

observing more latinos get off the sidelines this year. the latino vote turnout has generally been lower than the general population.id >> in every prtial election, you know, going from way back, there are more eligible latino voters not ting than actual eligib voters whore voting among the tinos. >> sy: but this election, garcia says he' this could be the election where everyone understands you can no longer win an election vwithout winning the lae. >> sy: the latino small business owners we spoke to did all agree on at least one thin- all said they've achieved some version of the american dream, e their vote could help preserve it. for the pbs newshour, i'm stephanie sy in maricopa county, arizona.

>> woodruff: and now, for their final friday analysis before the pollclose, it's time for shields and brooks. that is syndicated columnist mark shields, and "new york hello to both of you, only a few days to go. let's talk about it. whawhat does this race look liko each one you? david, you first. >> i16f addon happened, we thought it would be a clear blind win but 2016 did happen,w so we don't k. i think what strikes me most about the electorate is how fraught theye. 70% of americans say there will be permanent damage to this countr if the other candidate wins. 80% of democrats say iftrump wins-ins he will take us gradually towards dictatorship. 90% of republicans say biden will take us graally toward socialism if he wins. so thers a great sensof the country on all sides if my sideo

s the country is in mortal peril. that's wt makes it such an intense election. the good piece is if you ask peoplsiwhat's the ngle biggest problem facing the country 90%sa polarization and division. so they want to heal it, and the reason biden is winning is because he's made his whole campaign about that. it look ke to you? what does >> it looks, judy, like an important election. you know, nobody has ever said this is the sixth moorst impnt election of our lifetime, but i think this is a critically important election because just think, if frankliroosevelt had not been reelected in 1936, the whole definition of the presidency, the leader as this optimistic, rallying figure, inspiring figure would never have come really to being into american life,eoosevelt bme the standard. if donald trump is reeelected in

20he, it will redefine presidency and what americans expect of the president and of each other. i don't think he will bei ink joe biden will be elected next tuesany, that, for a whole host of onre that america and especially at a time of this coronavirus, we're looking for a "we" president and dold trump has been ame" president. he's been quite incapable of addresngng that, stepp to it. he's been on the river denial, as far as the crisis itself isnc rned, telling us sort of ina- pollyah tones it's going to be better, or it's already better, we juston't see that it's better. i really think that americans are loing for a different kind of leadership, decidedlyle differenership, and i think joe biden represents that to them and to a majority of them. >> woodruff: and, david, what are you basing your hunch or

iden ielief that joe going to win? >> it's between a hunch and a belief, it's somewre in the middle there. i am tum. i look at follows and the obvious stats. i mean,he'sup about eight or nine nationally, up in almost every state. for trump to win, he has to win every state where it's within a margin of error. that's a remarkable accomplishment. it's a tough accomplishment. heas probably a 10% chance of it. approval ratg is the obvious thing you look for in a presidential election reelection race, and donald trump has a 42, 43% approval rating, joe biden has a 52%. this is norocket sciene here. he's got a lead, and i think he hapicked, asmark said, it would have been so easy for him to reflect the anger of the country back upon itself and run an angry, divisivcampaign. i've never seen a campaign that's so studiously avoided wedge issues. he's run a unity campaign and i

think that's where the american people are right now. >> woodruff: mark, what are you basing your confidence th this is going to be a biden >> i have that divine --? (laughter) >> woodruff: we knew it. i come back to the gallup poll david referred to, i think was referring to. no incumbent presias ever been reelected whose job rating in the gallup poll was below 48% proval. trump has never once reached jority approval in the country, and now, as david pointed out, he's at3. you don't get -- you don't win 4 43 in essenally a two-candidate race. the second thi i would base it on, judy, is the 19t rights act of 1965.t voting if this election were, as the originalists tell us, was allur

about the way founding fathers intended it be and white men of y opere voting, donald trump wou be reelected. butthank god for the 19t 19th amendmenwhich gave women the right to vote and the 1965 votghts act which extended voting rights to people of color in this country, particularly african-americans, donald trump will not be reelected, and, if it was just white men voting, he would be reelected, which is, in itself, rather embarrassinas a white male. >> woodruff: and what about messages you're hring, david, from these two contestants candidates at the end? what are you hearing tt sums up the essence of their campai campaign? >> joe biden gave two speeches recently that were sort of hall m of the campaign. first was at gettysburg which is dia nation ded can't stand, about unity, the second is in ange springs, georgia, at f.d.r.'s he, ab healing,

where f.m. d.r. went to heal. so that's a reference to cov and unity. he's stuck with this message. he and his team decided this would be the message a year and a half ago and they've ridden this message andeth taken them where they are the trump message, i think the smarter message he should have run on was his mt. rushore speech he was running months ago and that's the other side is trying to chae america. when i think of average americans, wherever, somehow i don't think antifa is the coreut problem, they are running now on the message that if biden wins there willbe riots and chaos everywhere. it may work. you hear that a lot from temperature supporters, but i can't imagine that's a swing voter election. the final quick thing to say is a lot of people say, oh you can't persuade anybody. joe biden, if he wins, it's going to be because he's won people over and it's a good

lesson that you can persuade american voters. >> woodruff: and mark, what are you hearing their meages that sums up is the essence of what they have been trying to get aoss to the american people? >> elections are finally, in the final analysis, not about candidates, they're about voters, and the voters have mad this a ection. the voters decided joe biden. i mean, joe biden defied history by fishing fifth in the ohio caucuses, fthin new hampshire, fourth in iowa, he was dead till the voters of south carolina led by jim clyburn overwhelmingly african-american said, no, we want him, and at that point the democratic voters across the country said joe biden is our candidate. election where the voters not only will decide but took over.

as far as joe biden is concerned, he is the matchup, as they use inthletic terms. he is running a campaign esseially of character and decency. no mistake about it.ction, make we're talking about national public health, about national institutes oabout nationalhealtn americans being out of wk and make no mistake the climate is a real issue whether you just look at floods, hurricanes, fires, so, i mean, it's a big, big issue election, and i thinkwe will come out of it. i thinki joeden has done himself and the country a great service by not making it an ideological election. it's a campaign without a memorae debate and, truly, david talked about the

gettysburg speech which is a rabl speech, without a memo galvanizing address by either candidate. and donald trump chose to make it about personal grievous,t abople who weren't grateful to him, people who weren't loyal t him, by mistreating martha mcsally in arizona thisek at a gratuitous rudenesthat was just unthinble for any national leader. >> woodruff: one other thing that happeond this week, it think we've ever had, david, a supreme court justic confirmed this close to an election. amy coney barrett was confirmed by the senate monday. she took her place at the court on tuesday. she hasn't written an opinion yet that we know of, but the court is edg, ing toward's weighing in on some ballot questions. what do you make of that? do you see it having an impacti, tely, here? >> well, the first thing i cases they are taking.ume of e supreme court doesn't have to take cases, but they're

taking a lot of election cases and a lot of it is an w yu should stop counting votes, wh count the mail-in ballots. i think their decisions have gerally been sensible but they're certainly taking on a lot of cases which gives the suggeson they're not going to suddenly but out election day if sothing come the nightmare scenario is pennsylvania which now the supreme court has allowed voting fothings that come in three days after election day, the republicans ed to stop that anmake it count just the ones there were there. the supreme court ruled but there was barrett on the court. it was 4-4, it was a tie, and if it comes back to the court, if the republicans sue again after election a at a haltthe counting on november 4th or 5th, amy coney barrett will be,e tho that will be the first case we'll see, whether suddenly this -- she will be the cisive vote in anre extly contention c- contentious case.

>> woodruff: in a close election, mark, she and theio court could oly make a difference. >> well, we certainly sawhat in 2000, judy, when an activi court an and a partisan decision made the presidential verdict. a return to the 19th amendment and the voting rights act of 1965 which e remembered, i think rightly so, as expanding the franchise, of includfg americans,aking sure all voices were heard and all votes were counted, and that does not seem to be the animating idea of value of the court. i mean, don't we want every vote to be counted and adce to be heard? isn't that what democracy is about and whasat wire to be and tell our children that america represents and, you know, really -- i hope that

the court will butt out. >> woodruff: very good questions you're raising, don't we want every vote to be counted. mark shlds, david brooks,thank n election night next tuesday. >> woodruff: once again, remember a few of the many extraordinary people who have lost their lives in t covid-19 pandemic. 47-year-old heidi hussli always knew she wanted to be a teacher. her sister said heidi was fearless and pushed others to be the best version of themselves while studying abroad in germany during college, heidi fell iven ith the country, the language, and her future husband of 24 years.

wentn to become a germ teacher in wisconsin, sharing her passion with her students-- among them, heson. cassie martinez hated cities and was most at home ithe outdoors. born and raised in san diego, she and her boyfriend of eight years road-tripped to countless national parks alonghe pacific coast, from canada to mexico. her friends knew her as kind and sympathetic, always there as a shoulder to cry on, but also blunt and honest. when cassie passed at 29, she had landed aew job, on her way to becoming a dental hygienist, and her boyfriend was planning to propose. linda eawood's family calledhe their "north star." every holiday, she'd fill her home with decorations and people. linda, who went by "kellee,"

got engaged to her high school sweetheart bill in 1966, but the two separated after he s sent to germany during the vietnam war. after 44 years apart, they reunited, thanks to kellee's brother. the two married in 2010. it was her red hair and bracesth attracted bill to kellee all those years ago, and he never forgot her, his soulte and best friend. kellee was 72. ray and joan connery first met in the summer of 1953.as >> there in craigville beach in hyannis, minding my own business with four of my friends, having a and time. >> there were citing looking women. >> what made you talk to me? >> you looked like you had money. ( laughs ) >> woodruff: ray served in the navy during the second world war. when he returned, he became a joan was a dietician.

they married within a year of meeting, and raised five children together. both had a passion focobettering thunity. joan started a literacy program at the providence hospital, and advocated for better union contracts and teacher pay. ray served ten years on the town council. they traveled the worldt together, re equally happy at home, hosting dinners th their grandchildren a great-grandchildren. oey passed within 22 daysf each other, both 93 years old. every one of these lives is family meers for sharing these stores. our hearts go out to you yas the do to everyone who's lost a loved one in this pandemic. and, before we go tonight,

we want to say congratulations to one of our own! today, the national association of black journalists named yamiche alcindor, newshour's white house correspondent, ournalist of the year." oungratulations yamiche! we are so of you. and a reminder to watch tonight's "washington week" hour-long election special, whicincludes robert costa's report on the key battleground state of pennsylvania. that's tonight on pbs. and that is the newshour for tonight. i'm judy woodruff. thank you, have a safe halloween weekend, and we'll see you on election eve, monday. un >> major fng for the pbs newshour has been provided by: >> when the world gets complited, a lot goes through your min with fidelity wealth management, a dedicated advisor can tailor advice and recommendations to your life. that's fidely wealth management. >> consumer cellular. >> johnson & johnson.

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thank you. captioning sponsored by wshour productions, llc captioned by media access group at wgbh access.wgbh.o

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