captiong sponsored by newshour productions, llc >> woodruff: good evening. i'm judy woodruff. on the newshour tonight: the final sprint. the candidates make their closing pitches to voters in enters its final weekend.ampaign then, battleground arizona. how much difference hispanic voters could make in a state that has become increasingly competitive. >> this could be the election where evyone understands you can no longer win an election without winning the latino vote. >> woodruff: and, it's friday. mark shields and david brooks weigh the changing supreme court and share what they're looking for on election night. all that and more, on tonight's pbs newshour.

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more at kf.org. >> and with the ongoing support of these institutions: and friends of the newshour. >> thiprogram was made possible by the corporation for public broadcasting. and by contributions to ur pbs station from viewers like you. thank you. >> woodruff: the presidential campaign is coming down to the wire: one last weekend, only three days left to win hearts, minds, and votes. white house correspondent yamiche alcindor has been f watchingl day of rallies, and has this report. >> alcinr: the last friday before election day, and the candidates are trying to make every minute count. >> we're doing a lot of

traveling. we'll be doing a lot of rallies. we have some big ones. >> i don't take anything for grante we're going to work for every single vote, up to the last minute. >> alcindor: today, the focus was on the midwefi. t up for president trump was waterford township in michigan. >> this is a great gro. four days from now, we're going to win this state. >> alcindor: the day's schedules then converged, with planned stops for both candidates in wisconsin. it's a state setting single-day records for covid-19 infections and deaths. in green bay, president trump claimed the crisis would soon be over. >> the venus will be out very, very soon. we've done an incredible job with the veorntil the vaccines, the therapeutic. >> reporter: in the last 24rs thundeowers, the >> alcindor: in fact, in the last 24 hours, the nation had its worst day yet-- 91,000 new cases. and, with total cases nearing nine million, hospitalizations are up 50% this month. speaking in stpaul, minnesota, former vice president joe biden blasted president trump's

attempts to downplay the virus' severity. it's a last-ditch efto win a state he narrowly lost in 2016. more tinhan 1.5 million ballot the state have already been accepted. and, minnesotans who still haven't sent in their ballots thought they would be counted so long as they were postmarked by november wi and arrived in a week after the election, but last night, a federal appeals court ruled against that grace period-- ordering the state to separateth e late-arriving ballots. meanwhile, biden also campaigned to bring back another republican-leaning state. earlier tay, he swung bwa des moines, >> we're going to change the course of the country, and quite frankly, the wor right here in iowa, with all of you! on the final days, please keep your sense of empowerment, keep your sense of optimism! >> alcindor: and whilee presidential hopefuls targeted the midwest, the running mates had their eyes ovithe sun belt. president mike pence visited flagstaff, arizona. t

>> on novembrd, we need arizona to show america that this is trump country.(c ers and applause) >> alcindor: and sor kamala harris made the rounds in texas. the biden campaign is trying to flip state that hasn't backed a democratic predential candidate since 1976-- but polls show the race is close there. one of her stops came in fort irth. >> todaythe last day of early voting in texas, and you all have been doing your thing! >> alcindor: with more than nine million ballots already cast, texas today surpassed its total rnout for the 2016 electioacn. in some , texans are voting around the clock-- literally. arris county, the biggest in texas, opened up all- night polling places last night. convenient, especially for the people that work at night and have to sleep during the day, so yeah, ery convenient. >> alcindor: for the candidates and the rest of the country, there are now less than four days left to find out what this unprecedented tuout will mean.

>> woodruff: so, how do the trump and biden campaigns plan to take advante of these last days before voting ends? yamiche joins me now, along wits our lisardins, following the biden campaign. hello to both of you. yamiche, in your piece, you talked about how tandidates are addressing covid. with regard to the resident's campaign, do his people think he's hitting the right e notes n y he's talking about this virus? campaign and president trump do believe that he is hitting the right notes in talking about covid 19 asmething that is getting too much attention and as saying that the virus essentially inot that bad. it's a remarkable case he's making but he's saying three particular things. he's saying, one, i got the rus and i'm doing fine as will all ericans who get thvirus. that is in contrast to the fact we have 229,000 americans who have died from this vir the president is now seeing over

and over again at these rallies that hospitals and do are artificially inflating the numbers of people who have the ronavirus in order to get money. we're seeing health officials push back very hard on that. the american medical association came out todaysaid that is a mr. licious lie and not true. the other thing president trump is saying is covid 19 is getting too much attention from the media. a remarkable thing to say i special when we have 47 states where the virus is surging and dr. birx ve warning nors on a call today that coronavirus is on the rise and people need to be vigilant ability social distancing and masks. but the president thinks making this argument for people who are tired t of being in ther homes and locked down and essentially making the case people should be able to live their lives freely andth apeutics and vaccines will be on e way, something that joe biden has really really attacked and saithat the president is not being very responsible, but it is the president's closi message to the american people. >> woodruff: and, lisa, with

regard to biden campaign, do they believe he is seeing what he needs to say taat this of the campaign about the virus and how much of a focus is it going to be in these remaining days? >> the bides campaign a broad focus, but, yes, the coronavirus and the president's response to it is a big piece of it. in general, the biden campaign they ha to do what been doing for months, convey that this is a president who has been bad for this country, in theiropinion, and who has led to more chaos and less stability. with the idea that joe bden is someone who can govern the country back into stability and, even more, heal thdivides that they say the trump administration has mad eworse. with regard to what the president is saying about the ronavirus, speaking to multiple ben campaign sources they say that sort of contrasts with reality. the president, his son and others portraying a situation where things are getting better when, in fact, most americans

know things seem to be getting worse at this moment. they say that helps them. one campaign aide told me most americans know someone who has been affected by croes, someone who has died, losb,a joeen sick, and then in the president's message justoes against that. >> woodruff: and, yamiche, to broaden this out, what about in the trump folks are looking agent and what do faifl good worriedwhat are they abou >> reporter: in the final days of this election between today and election day, president trump is holding 17 rallies in eight states. i want to put up a map for people to show all the places the president is goin he's going to critical battleground case as well as states he's worried abou ieu, florida, georgia, minnesota, and in the day before the election, he'll be in north carolina, pennsylvania, michigan and wisconsin. the trump campaign febos confident florida, they tell me i've talked to multiple courses who sayhey feel confident about the the president being able to get

enough black and whether tino men to run up his numbers tre but they are very worried about the coronavirus and about whether or not people pecially who lost loved ones whether or not they will not p happy about the president's handling and rhetoric and will not vote for >> woodruff: lisa, same question to you, what are the states thep iden camis focusing on in these last hours, and what do they feel good aband what are they worried about in. >> reporter: i will see yache's map and raise her. here's the biden campaign map for the last few days. as she reorted in the package, you see the president going to three states today but also in the next couple of days he will be spending time in michigan and in pennsylvania. this is really important. pennsylvania, all four key campaign, joe biden, kamala harris and their spouses will be in pennsylvania on monday. that is a focus for this campaign. these are blue wall stateprthat ident obama won and that

vice president biden can take back. one more thing the bieen campaign good about their outreach to hispanics particularly in texas and arizona. >> woodruff: and k w the biden camp will have former president obama on the trail with mr. biden over the weekend in michigan. lisa desjardins, yamiche alcindor, down to the wire, thank you th. and now, to help wk us through the battleground map and each candidate's paways to the 270 electoral votes, i'm joined by npr's senior political editor and corrpondent, domenico montanaro. domenico, thank you h for being with us again. we are less than a week out. we're just, what, three days out. what is the big picture look like right now? >> well, the big picture, our map, so far, we have it at 279 ectoral votes for joe biden for states that are leaning toward him or likely to go his

direction, and only 125 for president trump for states leaning in his direction or likely to go in his directio. so, you know, this has been a crazy year because, when yot u lookl of these states in yellow that are the tossu states from arizona, texas, georgia, florida, north carolina, ohio and iowa, all of those states are reason the margin of error, judy, so that gives a lot of democrats a lot of pause when they look at a number thasays, wow, joe biden is up by a lot, but that could all tip vry quickly pecially if there's a polling error that, by the way, would have to be a lot bigger than in 2016. by the way, there's a sceinnario hich, if trump were to win over all of those tossup states and the next state in that poing average that woul be really important would be pennsylvania, and you would wind up with a 259 to 259 map. that's totally possible if all

of those states within the margin of error go trump's way. and while th seems unlikely, president trump certainly pulled off th inside straight in 2016, and a lot of people wondering if he could do it again. honestly, it's the only -- almost the only way for him to win. >> woodruff: a tie- or close to a tie. just thinking about it gives me a big headache, domenico. but you've looked at this. a path to victory for each one of these candidates, what would it look like? >> yeah, and if i can give you a little bit more of a headache, if pennsylvania is that lt stte, they are pretty eslow at counting the voteand they don't have the experience with mail-in ballots, with all of these mail-in ballots that have come in this year, thairchts had that in the past so that could leave is waiting for a long time. as lisa was saying in the earlier segment the both for joe biden starts in the midwest rust belt area. michan, wisconsin,

pennsylvania, if joe biden can win there that the rebuild the blue cal scenario. run up the score, frankly.uld there's a chance we esee a biden blowout. that's possible as a trump's squeaker. for the trump' path, everybody goes through the sun belt plus lne. he's got to win the republican leaning states like riizona, texas, fa, georgia, north colina and add one, he could add pennsylvania, he could ahi a mn, he couldn't add wisconsin. wisconsin, by the y, giving you rale anxieties here, if he were to do tha and pick up wisconsin, we could be in a tie scenario, 269-269, but that the just to give everyone heaches. >> woodruff: you're talking about a big one. finally, domenico, you're not only looking at geography, you're looking at demographics, who the voterar, how do they break down.h

what do you seee that could move the needle this election? >> the biggest potential political reagnment we could see is with white voters. joe biden man overperforming with white voters. if whites with a college degree come out in a way with argin we're seeing in the polls for joe biden, you could see a wipeout for republicans in a lot of places, in the house is in rticular, which is whyhe house is seen to be going ca repubs favor. you know, that is a real key demogrhic, whites with college degrees, suburban voters, independents, trump won all of those and biden has been winning them by big margins in the polls. >> woodruff: fascinating. so many questions. we're looking for answers on election night, as twe seose votes come in. domenico montanaro of npr, than you. >> you're welcome.

>> woodruff: in the day's other news, the number of coronavirus cases worldwide exeded 45 million, fueled by surges in the united states and europe. belgium is europe's worst hotspot, and this evening, the government there imposed a partial lockdown-- restrictg travel, shopping and even family contacts for six eks. >> ( translated ): we are moving the direction of a reinorced confinement with a single objective: to prevent health care services from collapsing. i realize that tse are particularly drastic and painful measures. t they are the fruit of long reflection based on facts. >> woodruff: france a gmany also imposed new lockdowns and restrictions this week. an earthquake rattled parts of turkey and greece llday, g at least 19 people and injuri more than 70 the tremor knocked down buildings and triggered a small tsunami.

chaos as buildings collapsed in turkey's third-largest city, izmir. panicked residents fled into the streets, paramedics rushed to treat the injur rked furiously to pull out those trapped beneath the wreckage. hundreds of people were hurt and doze hado be rescued. >> ( translated ): i thought t at the grounis shattered. you cannot thinkat moment. all you try to do is to go out. everywhere was collapsing down. luckily our building was intact. we were really panicked and managed to go out at the very last minute. >> woodruff: the earthquake struck in the aegean sea between the turkish coast and the greek island of samos in the early afternoon, local time. the shock wave sent a small tsunami into a coastal district near izmir, triggering street flooding. d the earthquake could be felt as far away as turkes biggesist

citynbul, some 300 miles capital, athens.in greece's seismologists predict the shallow depth of the quake's epicenter could lead tofo aftershocks several weeks or even a month. here in the u.s., people in coastal louisiana and mississippi are also picking up the pieces in the aftermath of hurricane zeta. the storm washed boats onto streets and yards after comingne ashore way, and it wrecked homes and left widespread power outages well into northern georgia. the hurricane is also blamed for six deaths. an investigati into australia's devastating wildfire season reports that things will only get worse, and it calls for detailed climate change projections. the so-called "black sufimmer" s killed at least 33 people and destroyed more than 3,000 homes. officials said it's clear that the country nee to overhaul

its fire response. >> frankly, the federal response to the bushfires, up until christmas, was a debacle. it was very difficult to get anybody to lten about what was happening, and there was insufficient funding flowing out to the states and territories. this must change. >> woodruff: a new wildfire season has now begun in australia, but forecasts call for above-average rainfall, in contrast to last year's droug. in poland tonight, protesters staged what may be the largest rally yet in warsaw, aimed at a opposing a court rulin abortion. the decision barred terminationt of fetuses witdefects, even if severe. thousands of demonstrators converged despite officil warnings to stay home as covid cases surge. orthe nation's top prosec threatened criminal charges against organizers. back in this country, federal judge in washington d.c.

ordered the u.s. postal service, to ensure thatmillions of ballots get delivered by election day. the order cas for "extraordinary measures" at processing sites where on-time devery of ballots has %.opped below and, the covid surge spooked wall street again.du the dow jones rial average lost 157 points to close at 26,501. the nasdaq fell 274 points, and the s&p 500 ga up 40. for the week, the dow lost 6.5%e the nasdaq and&p dropped still to come on the newshour: a new report exposes how the trump administration conties to separate children from their families. belgian hospitals struggle to respond to a massive influx of covid patients. we examine the importance of the latino vote in arizona. plus, much more. u

>> woodruf. border authorities are allegedly violating an agreement with mexico, and expelling minors into mexico even if they come from other countr central america. the children crossed the southe border into the u.s. illegally, but as the "new york times" now reports, mexico i not where they're supposed to be sent. amna nawaz has the details, and the questions it raises about child welfare. >> nawaz: judy, during the pandemic, thousands of childr have been rapidly deported to their home countries after crossing the u.s. border. but the "times" reports today, at least 200 of those children, mostly from guatemala, honduras and el salvador, were sent to mexico instead, despite having no family or connections there. caitlin dickerson broke the a

stor fills in the rest of the picture for us now. "newshour" and thar beingthe with us. you have covered a number of stories about the care and custody of migrate children by the trump administration, family inparation, kids being hel tells before they were depored, but you said this practice that you have uncovered has potentially more devastating complications. why? what did you mean by that? >> wl, i think the easiest way to understand it is to put yourself in the shoes of ant pa so, you know, there are a lot of different circumstances that are american border alone, but at least one of them which is qui common is, you know, parents end up staying back in home country, and a child makes the journey to the united stat on their own because they don't feel safe, you know, again, for a number of different reasons they cross the american torder alone and parent has an expectation of where their child is going to end up and almost i every case when we know a child crosses the somebodylone, they hav in the united states who's waiting for them.

but now what we're talking about is, agai group, this unprecedented policy that under which the administration started expelling kids back to their home countries, often without notifying parents, that wasri sung enough, and now what we've learned and what we've reported today is that comere kids, rahan being expelled back into their home countries,e arg sent to different country, mexico, where they have no connections and sent into the hands of child welfare authorities there. towns why this is such a big deal, why it's so concerning for parents is if you put yourself in their position and you find your child ends up in a country that you didn't expect them to. >> reporter: what about the u.s. government officials you spoke to. y do they s it's happening? >> there's a lot of confusion, to be nest with you, when we talked to the u.s. government officials about what we. discover i first confirmed this was happening with an internal email i got access to. it was written by an assistant chief of the border patrol and he seems to be sounding the

alarm in the emai he says, you know, there are several sus pectd instances of this happenina it's jor problem, it needs to stop, it puts this whole coronavus border ban in jeopardy, the one we have been soscussing, e brought the email and the reports of individual cases we've heard, i've talked to oa coupf parts who have been in this situation, we brought it to high-ranking officials who are speaking, you know, of "ficially to tw york times," and they originally said, you know, yes, this is happening, but, you know, then they sort of said, well, but it violates th the american agreement with mexico. they sill haven't given us an explanation as to who the sions to mexico were an accident, whether accidently from one port of entry to another, there are still a lot of big questions as to why this is happening. >> reporter: in just a few connection we have left, we've all knowabouthe hundreds of children who after the trump policy years later are still not

unitewith their families. what do we know about the children? who has responsibility for them now and will they be reunited ath their families? >> these childrefar as we know, went into the hands of mexican child welfare authorities. they have processes to reunite parents and children but we've learned time and time ain in the last couple f years these processes take a long time, and, so, it could be a while before parents and children are brought back together. >> reporter: caitlin ckerson with an exclusive and important story tonight from the "new york times." caitlin, thank you so much for being with us. >> thanks for having me. >> woodruff: while the coronavirus surges again he in the u.s., it is also coming back with a vengeance in europer and noworse than in belgium, which is now the hot spot of t continent.

the southern, french-speaking wallonia region is particularly hard-hit. special correspondent lucy hough brings us this report from liege. >> reporter: it's a coronavir tsunami. a crpling second wave that health officials say they can no longer control. the intensive care beds for covid-19 patients in tlis hospital ie are full. admissions have been doubling every eight days. the ventilators, monitors and glass isolation units are signs of crisis worse than the first wave in the spring. if the pressure continues, doctors here say they may soon be forced to choose who receives life-saving care. >> ( translated ): where things stand right now, we're not having to make those choices. but if the wave keeps coming ke this, we know we will have to. we're in constant dialogue with patients, being clear that we can't ensure everyone mitted to intensive care will make it through to rehabilitation. that's a reality we're alrdy

dealing with. >> reporter: wallonia, the southern, french-speaking regn of belgium, now has one of the highest ras of infection in the world, with one in every three tests coming back positive. from the start, belgium has been vulnerable to the vis. it's densely populated, with high rates of cross-border travel. the near-total relaxation of restrictions over the summer, combined with bad weather f d the returnhools in the fall, have created a perfect storm. monthsf preparation mean for now at hospitals like this one, there is enough prottive equipmeno around. but there are critical shortages of people-- not enough doctors, nurses and other medical personnel to cope with the influx of covid-19 patients. the situation has become so critical in this region that some hospitals are asking ctors and nurses to keep working even if they've tested positive for the virus-- as long

as they are not displaying symptoms. it's to prevent the healthcare system from total collapse. >> ( translated ): we had 5% ofo nurses and d that were positive with coronavirus, but not sick. we needed this 5% who are essential to treat all the patients we have. e we decided to let them work, otherwise we'd h refuse patients, and all the consequences that would have. >> reporter: staff shortages ar not limited to hospitals. with so many belgians isolatingd with c9, there are also reduced numbers of police officers on the streets and teachers in classrooms. volunteers are beg drafted in to fill the gaps. the testing system is overwhelmed, with only essentiap workers and symatic people able to access a test. like neighboring france, belgium has now introduced a new

national lockdown, closing all non-essential businesses d limiting social contacts. but, experts fear urgent action was needed earlier. >> ( translated ): i think measures came too late, that's clear, otherwise we wouldn't be in this position. the problem is, what we do now will only haveton effect in 10 2 days. but within 10 to 12 days, we also think we will be at the peak of hospital admissions. it is important that we restrict our contacts, so we don't add t another layer expected peak. >> reporter: but liheke elsew in europe, there are signs of lockdown fatigue, and rising naanger towards natiol governments. small demonstrations have taken place in belgium, but have stopped short of the violence nyd unrest seen on the stree of italy and ger. for weeks, european governments have resisted full shutdowns. t the reality in hospitals like this one have left little choice. the sces in liege are a

flashback to those in lombardy in northern italy at the start of this crisis. a healthcare system pushed to its limit-- and as the infection rate grows and the death tolls contin rise, nobody knows what the next few weeks will hold. for the pbs newshour, i'm lucy hough in liege. dr >> wf: arizona has emerged as a surprising battleground state in this year's presidential election. trump beat hillary clinton there by only 3.5% in 2016. latinos make up a quarter of eligible voters in the grand canyon state, and whilels p show most latinos are supporting biden, stephanie sy reports, latinos are not a completely united voting bloc. covid-careful capacity, chef

silvana salcido esparza's but it's her politics that are on the front burner these days. >> it's the character that counts. >> sy: esparza spent almost an hour with joe biden when he and senator kamala harris visited the barrio cafe in phoenix for a campaign stop. >> i see a soul there. i see a man who has got coiction, who has empathy, who liens. >> sy: covid has put a strain on her business. battling an incurable inflammary disease, she shutst the rant down early in the pandemic, and had to cancel her and her employees' health insurance. do youhink that if biden is elected on november 3, things will get betr for the barrio? >> whether it affects or not me, whether the barrio cafe survives or not, that's besidepo tht. the point is that... the decay

will stop. >> i'm one of those very skeptical people. >> sy: a few miles from the barrio cafe, chawa magaña is packing online orders at the bilingual bookstore she's owned for five years. "palabras" is filled with books on issues like racial justice and indigenous rights and features authors of color. >> it reflects my politics very much so, because the bookstores run kind of by theommunity. i am driven by a mission that isn't just profit, so i need money in order to exist, right? but that's not the main focus of sue bookstore. >> sy: communityort, including an online fundraiser that raised more than $10,000, shop going throughandemic.pt the >> during covid, it's really diicult for small businesses to stay afloat. and we're seeing it. it's very visible. >> sy: do yofeel like th democrats have a better-- ? i can't really trust trump at all when it comes

to that, because of the track record, because of not taking protective measures for o communities as well. >> sy: with the covid pandemic ravaging many latino communities, she sent a mail-in ballot for biden, evenhoug she's a former bernie sanders supporter who says she's dillusioned by the two-party system. i ean, what is the other option, you know? >> sy: longtime arizona political watcher and joe garcia ys both candidates have spent months courting arizona's latino small business owners. >> the democratic party has put money into arizona, for the first time in a long time, knowing it can win the state. i sy: but you also have lnos who are pro-trump. >> i mean, you're talking maybe 20%. >> sy:'m driving to mesa, a suburb east of phoenix, which for decades has been staunchly conservative. even with a booming latino/ hispanic population, those conservative roots run deep. >> it's about policy. it's about what afcts my lifet

and if-- and w says doesn't affect my life. >> sy: mesa resint dominique rivas originally voted for trump in 2016 because of her son ray, who serves in the u.s. army. >> i feel that, till this day, he still hasn't taken our country to war. and he is still my son's best tance of survival. >> sy: and now, t still the reason why you support him, and have his sign on your lawn now? >> not only is he my son's best esance of survival now, but he is my business'schance of survival now. >> sy: rivas started a mobile notary business duriid, and is makg more money ow than she ever did in her former government job. >> this new business ths i created, tw life that i've created for family has put me into a new tax bracket, has put me, a hispanic, new independent business owner. it's what the american dream is l about. >> sy: and if biden were to win the presidency? >> i fl what would come would be a bigger shutdown, maybe, possibly.

>> sy: because of covid. >> because of covid. i feel that that would have an effect on the mortgage industry, and that's-- that's a big part f my new business. town of gilbert, wet martha llam in her neighborhood ofds impeccably lped single- family homes. her life wasctt always pie- perfect. >> then he grabs my baby, thws them into the bed and grabs me, and starts beating me with the gun >> sy: llamas described a violent ex-boyfriend who she says almost killed her in 1996. it's a story she recount on a duage with president trump ng one of his more than half-dozen campaign stops toiz a. after she got out of the relationship, she found work as a nitor. >> my mother, i remember telling me, don't get any handouts.

go get a job. and when i started that job, felt free, and it was amazing. you know, picking up trash or cleaning toilets or doing thath, it was like,y god, this is great. >> sy: she rose rough the company and now runs her own janitorial firm, which she owns with her husband ron. it has nearly 70 employees, and she sayshe's supporting trump in part because she wants to see obamacare fully repealed. >> a janitorial business. you make 10% profit. how am i going to afford insurance for all my employees? that means if i do that, i mighs ell just quit. >>y: but silvana esparza feels just the opposite. she not only wants affordable health inrance for her employees, she favors raising the minimum wage. >> i believe in unity. i believe in the united states, not e divided states. i believe in respecting my fellow man. >> sy: whatever side they fall on, joe garcia says he is

observing more latinos get off the latino vote turnout has generally been lower than the general population. >> in every presidential election, you know, going from way back, therelere more eligatino voters not voting than actual eligible voters who are votinamong the latinos. >> sy: but this eltion,arcia says he's noticed tbig change. s could be the election where everyone understands you can no longer win an election without winning the latino vote. >> sy: the latino small busine owners we spoke to did all agree on at least one thing-- all said they've achieved some versn of the american dream, and believe their vote could help preseve it. for the pbs newshour, i'm stephanie sy in maricopa county, arizona.

>> woodruff: and now, for their final friday analysis before the polls close, it'time for shields and brooks. that is syndicated columnist mark shields, and "new york times" columnist david brooks.> llo to both of you, only a few days to go. let's talk about it. whawhat does this race look liko each oneof you? david, you first. >> if 2016 haddon happened, we thought it would a clear blind win but 2016 did happen, i think what strikes me most about the electorate is how fraught they are. 70% of americans say there will be permanent damage to this country if the other candidate wins. 80% of democrats say if trump wins-ins he will take us gradually towards dictatorship. 90% of republicans say biden will take us gradually towar socialism if he wins. so there's a great sense of country on all sides if my side

loses the ountry is in mortal peril. that's what makes it sucan intense elecon. the good piece is if you ask people what's the single biggest problefacing the country 90% say polarization and division. so they want to heal it, and the reason biden is winning is because he's made h whole campaign about that. >> woodruff: mark, what does it lk like to you? >> it looks, judy, like an important election. you know, nobody has ever said election of our lifetime, but it think this is a critically important election because j think, if franklin roosevelt had not been reelectein 36, the whole definition of the presidency, the leader as this optimistic, rallying figure, inspiring figure would never have come really to being into american life, rooseve became the standard. if donald trump is reeelected in

2020, it will redefine the presidency and what americans expect of the president and of each other. i don't think he will be. b i think jden will be elected next tuesday, and that, for a whole host of reasons, that america and especially at a time of this coronavirus, we're looking for a "we" president and donald trump has been a "me" president. he's bee quite incapable of addressing that, stepping up to it. he's been on the river denial, as far as the crisis itself is pollyanna-ish tons goingrt of in to be better, or it's already betterwe just don'tsee that it's better. i really think that americans are looking foa different kind of leadership, decidedly different leadership, and i think joe biderepresents that to them and to a majority of them. >> woodruff: and, david, what your belief that joe bidgo is

g to win? >> it's between a hunch and a belief, it's somewhere in thedd mi there. i am tum. i look at follows and the obvious stats. i mean, he's up about eight oron nine naly, up in almost every state. for trump to win, he has o win every state where it's within a that's a remarkable accomplishment. 's a tough accomplishment. he has probly a % chance of it. approval rating is the obvious thing you look for in a presidential election reelection race, and donald trump has a 42, 43% appoval rating, joe biden has a 52%. this is not rocket science here. he's got a lead, and i think he has picked, as mark said, it would haveeen so easy for him to reflect the anger of the country back upon itself and run an angry, divisive campaign. i've never seen a campaign that's so studiously avoided wedge issues. he's run a unity campaign and i

think that's where the american people are right now. >> woodruff: mark, what e you basing your confidence that this is going to be a biden victory, what do you see? >> i have that divine -- (lauter) >> woodruff: we knew it. i come back to the gallup poll david referred to, i think was referring to. no incumbent president has ever been reelected whose job rating in the gallup poll wa below 48% approval. trump has never once reached majority approval in the country, and now, as davpoid ted out, he's at 43. you don't get -- you don't win at 4 43 in essentially a two-candidate race. the second thing i would base it on, judy, is the 19t 19th amendment and the voting rights act of 1965. if this election were, as the originalistsell us, was all

about the way our founding fathers intended it be and white men of property were voting, donald trump wreld beected. but thank god for9t th 19th amendment which gave women the right to vote and the 1965 voting rights acthich extended voting rights to people of color in this country, particularly african-americans, donald trump will not be reelected, and, if it was just white ting, he would be reelected, which is, in itself, rather embarrassing as a white male. >> woodruff: and what about messages you're hearing, david, from these two contestants candidates at the end? what are you hearing that ms up the essence of their campai campaign? >> joe biden gave two speeches recently that were sort of hall m of the campaign. afirst wt gettysburg which is a nation divided can't stand, about unity, the second is in oran springs, georgia, at f.d.r.'s home, about healing,

where f.m. d.r. went to heal. and unity.a reference to cov he's stuck with this message. he and his team decided thisbe woulhe message a year and a half ago and they've ridden th message andeth taken them where they are. hee trump message, i think t smarter message he should have run on was his mt. rushmore speech he was running months ago and that's the other side is trying to change america. when i think of average americans, wherever, tmehow i don'hink antifa is the core problem, but they are running now on the message hat if biden wins there will be riots and chao everywhere. it may work. you hear that a lot temperure supporters, but i can't imagine that's a swing voter elenaction. the quick thing to say is a lot of people say, oh you c persuade anybody. joe biden, if he wins, it's going to be beuse he's won people over and it's a good

lesson th you can persuade american vers. >> woodruff: and mark, what are you hearing in their messages thasums up is the essence of what they have been trying to get across to the american people? >> elections are finally, in the final analysis, not about candidates, they're about this a big electioters have made the voters decided joe biden. b i mean, jden defied history by finishing fheifth in hio caucuses, fifth in new hampshire, fourth in iowa, he was dead till the votofer south carolina led by jim clyburn overwhelmingly african-american said, no, we want him, and at that point e democratic voters across the country said joe biden is our candidate. so in that sense, it's an election where the voters not onlwill decide but took over.

as far as joe biden is concerned, he is the matchup, as they use in athletic terms. he is running a campaign essentially of character and decency. it's a big issue election, make no mistake about it. we're talking about national public health, about national institutes oabout nationalhealtn americans being out of work and make no mistake the climate is a real issue whether you just look at floods, hurricanes, fires, so, i mean, it's a big, big e election, and i think we will come out of it. i think joe biden has done himself and the country gra t service by not making it gian ideol election. it's a camignthout a memoble debate and, trul david talked about the

gettysburg speech which is a ,good spee without a memorable galvanizing address by either candidate.ld and dorump chose to make it about personal grievous, about people who weren't grateful to him, peopl who weren't loyal to him, by mistreatinmartha mcsally in arizona this week at a gratuitous rudeness that was just unthinkable for any national leade >> woodruff: one other thing that happened this week, i don't think we've ever had, david, a supreme court justice confirmed this close to an election. amy coney barrett was confirmed by the senate monday. she took her place at the court on tuesday. she hasn't written an opinion yet that we know of, but the court is edging toward, it's weighing in on some balot questions. what do you make of that? doou see it hving an impact, ultimately, here? i well, the first thi notice is how much volume of cases they are taking. the supreme court doesn't have to take cases, but they'rf

taking a lotection cases and a lot of it is about when you should stop couvontines, when you count the mail-in ballots. i their decisions have generally been sensible but they're certainly taking on a lot of cases which gives the suggestion they're not going to suddenly but out eleioday if something comes to te court. h e nightmare scenario is pennsylvania whiow the supreme court has allowed voting days after electy, then three republicans sued to stop that and make it count just the ones there wethere. the supreme court ruled but there was no barrett on the it was 4-4it was a tie, and if it comes back to the court, if the republicans sue again after election a at a toalt the counting on rnovember 4th 5th, amy coney barrett will be there, so that will be the first case we'l, whether suddenly this -- she will be the decisive vote in an extremely contention- contentious case.

>> woodruff: in a clos election, mark, she and the court could obviously make a difference. >> well, we certainly saw that in 2000, judy, when an activist court an and a partisan decision made the presidential verdict. a return to the 19th amendment and the voting rights act of 1965 which are remembered, i the franchise, of includinging americans, of making sure all all votesre heard and were counted, and that does not seem to be the animating idea of i mean, don't we want every vote to be counted and advice to be heard? isn'emthat whatracy is about and what we aspire to be and tell our childrenthat america represents and, you know, i really -- opi hthat

the court will butt out. >> woodruff: very good questions you're raising, don't we want every vote to counted. mark shields, david bk oks, thyou, we'll see you on election night next tuesday. >> woodruff: once ar in, we rememfew of the many extraordinary people who have lost their lives in the covid-19 pandemic. 47-year-old heidi hussli always knew she wanted toe a teacher. her sister said heidi was fearless and pushed others to be the best version of themselves. while studying abroad in germane during collegei fell in love with the country, the language, and her future hband of 24 years.

heidi went on to become a german teacher in wisconsin, sharing her passion with her students-- among them, her son. cassie martinez hated cities and was most at home in the born and raised in san diego, she and her boyfriend of eights yearad-tripped to countless national parks along the pacific coast, from canada to mexico. her friends knew her as kind and sympathetic, always there as a shoulder to cry on, but also blunt and honest. when cassie passed at 29, she had landed a new job, on her way to becoming a dental hygienist, and her boyfriend was planning to propose. linda eastwood's family called her their "north star." every holiday, she'd fl her home with decorations and people. linda, who went by "kellee,"en

goged to her high school sweetheart bill in 1966, but the two separated after hwas sent to germany during the vietnam war. after 44 years apart, they reunited, thanks to kellee's brother. the two married in 2010. it was her red hair and bracesed that attraill to kellee all those years ago, and he never forgot her, his soulmate and best friend. kellee was 72. ray and joan connery first met in the summer of 1953. >> there i was on craie beach in hyannis, minding my own business with four of my friends, having a grand ti >> there were exciting looking women. >> what madeou talk to me? >> you looked like you hadmo y. ( laughs ) >> woodruff: ray served in the navy during the second world war. when he returned, he became a rhode island state jotrooper.

was a dietician. they married within a year of meeting, and raised five children together. both had a passion for bettering the community joan started a literacy program at the providence hospital, and advoted for better union contracts and teacher pay. ray served ten years on e town council. they traveled the world together, but were equ happy at home, hosting dinners with their gndchildren and great-grandchildren. they passed thin 22 days of each other, both 93 years old. every one of these lives is precious, and, again, we thank family members for sharing eth stores. our hearts go out to you as they do to everyone who's lost a loved one in this pandemic. and, bore we go tonight,

we want to say congratulations to one of our own!to y, the national association of black journalists named yamiche alcindor, newshour's whit house correspondent, "journalist of the year." congratulations yamiche! are so proud of you and a reminder to watch tonight's "washington week" hour-long election special, which includes rert costa's report on the key battleground state of pennsylvania. that's tonight on pbs. and that is the newshour for tonight. i'm judy woodruff. thank you, have a safe halloween weekend, and we'll see you on election eve, monday. >> major funding for the pbs newshour has been provided by: >> when the world gets complicated, a lot goes through your mind. with fidelity wealth management, a dedicated advisor can tailor advice and recommendations to your li. that's fidelity wealth management. >> consumer cellular.on >> johns johnson. >> financial services firm

raymond james. >> bnsf railway. w >> tliam and flora hewlett foundation. for more than 50 year advancing ids and supporting institutions to promote a betr world. at www.hewlett.org. >> supporting social entrepreneurs and their solutions to the world's most pressing problems-- skollfoundation.org. >> and with the ongoing support these institutions and friends of the newshour. >> this program was made posble byhe corporation for public broadcasting. and by contributions to your pbs statiofrom viewers like you.

thank you. captioning sponsored by newshour proctions, llc captioned by media access group at wgbh access.wgbh.org

tonight on "kqed newsroom," with the election just four days away, president trump and joe biden make their closing pitches, but with a cord number of people voting by mail, the winner may not be known for some time. we take a look back at the history of election polling, includinrppresident trump's sing upset in 2016 with the other the new book "lost in the gallop." and people with different political views spark a romantic collection? we hear from a host of a dating podcast about the experiment. we will revel in a time honored traditio welcome to "kqed newsroom." i'm priya david clemens. and now for "kqed newsroom"'s election 2020 coverage.