tonight on "kqed newsroom," with the election just four days away, president trp and joe biden make their record number of people voting by mail, the winner may not be known for some time. we take look back at the history of election polling, including president trump's surprising upset in 2016 with the other the new book "lost in the gallop." and people with different political views spark a rowentic collection? ear from a host of a dating podcast about the experiment. we will rev honored tradition. welcome to "kqed newsroom." i'm priya david emens. and now for "kqed newsroom"'s election 2020 coverage.

we're finally here in the last few days before tuesda november 3, election day. voters have submitted early ballots in record numbers with roughly 80 million votes already cast. in the nearly 4 years since president trump took office, regulations have been rolled ba, immigration has been curtailed, and the american judicial system has becomegn siificantly more conservative. this week, amy coney barrett was sworn in as the new a supreme court justice and a monday night ceremony on the white house lawn. but according to polls him her confirmation has not yet proven to be game changer for president trump. democratic rival joe biden is leading in several critical states and has moraised money. joining me now by skype from san francisco, our turn on politics and government senior editorscott shafer ankqed politics and government rr pondent marisa lagos, thank you for joining us. scott, we just recorded our worst week of covid cases in the nation, the california has silver avoided a spike. expected the pandemicwas going to increase early mail-in

voting, but the numbers are far above what was o expected. benefits from this electoral surge? >> the conventional wisdom, priya, whenever there's a larger than expected turnout, the republicans becausfit more republicans historically are very reliable voters, wereas you have a lot of occasional voters among democrats, first- time voters, younger voters, more low income voters. those are all folks mewho somevote and sometimes they don't for various reasons. so you would guess that in a lot of places, this figure turnout is going to help joe biden and any other democrats on the ticket, but i thinl we have to be careful in making too many assumptions about things. we do have to wait for the ballots to counted. we expect a lot of republicans to show up on election day to vote in person, partly because of what president trump has been saying, that voting by mail is not safe, it is rigged, which ur isn't of , but it's had an impact on

repuicans. >> do yoexpect election day to turn into election week, or longer, marisa? >> i mean, it's going to depend where you are, and in california, that's been the case for a decade. it's very unusual and he really contested races re are settled onec on night. i would expect that, you know, presidential race wise, it's going to depend on what we're seeing as those early returns are finay counted and some of the states we'll be watching likelorida do allow processing a ballot before it:00 p.m. on election day, but the big question here in california is going to be me of those tighter measures , ballot measure races, where polling shows they are really neck and neck and we're not going to be able to make a call untiwe have all the votes counted. >> scott, berkeley and i just put out a recent poll of li rnians. 87% of respondents said they

worry that many americans we'll not respect the outcome of this year's presidential eleca on , and similar number, nearly 9 t of 10 people think violence is likely to occur if there area disputut who won the election. yikes! would you expect the sort of civil action to center in washington, d.c., or would re be widespread? >> it is hard to say. i think these are very genuine you know, we haheard a lot of comments from the president calling into question whether or not he would actually accee sults of the election if he loses. i think, you know, s there analysis done by an international organization that look for trouble spots around the world, and the states they focused in on were places like oregon where there'a big militia movement, pennsylvania, north carolina, a little bit in california as well, but i don't think it would necessarily be focused on d.c., and i think i we'll look a mosome of the state center especially if they turn out on election to be really close , then toof course see what the president does and says. if he declares victory before all the votes are counted, re

think yogoing to see potentially both sides out on the streets, anyou know, it's also concerning. we've seen a big uptick in the number of guns purchased. the y untry is extrem polarized because a lot of anxiety, so i think is good reason to be concerned, anxious. let's just hope all of it, none of it plays out. >> of course, there is concern whether president trump would vacate the white house. marisa, let's turn to kamala harris, our senator here in california. joe biden had a isbig fundg day when he announced she would be his running mate. what has been her net impact on the presidential ticket. >> $26 milln in the rst 24 hours after that announcement. the biden campaign also took in more than twice what it had in auguter her announcement. after coming out twice and august what i had in july of that announcement. we see her sorority sisters from alpha kappa alpha which hearted at howard university 22,000 individual donations excited the daysthat biden was

really hoping for women in color in particular. we saw after the debate for example, a huge fundraising haul for thdemocrats because vice presidential debate. i think this has worked, you know, and i've talked to folks close to her. i think democrats still have s some problth men of color, latinos and black men in particular. they're going to have work to do with thiselection even after they win, but i think kamala harris has served to shore up some of the basin the fundraismbers biden was hoping she would. >> scott, what we'll it mean for california if kala harris becvies the new president. >> would be extraordinary not just for california but the certainly would nancy as speaker and kamala harris as vice president, we would have a pipeline to the white house and to washington, but i k thin general, really for the country and perhaps for the world, harris, a woman ofcolor, of mixed race dissent, becoming vice presidt, she is a very different kind of person than we have seen in that job ever before.

i was thinking about this earlretoday, and she's of like a justin trudeau, someone who's younger, more ss formal, and that glass t ceiling has never been broken, but it would mean a lofor california, and of course for the country if she were to become vice president. it would be extra ordinary. >> marisa, let's turn the region. you been talking to californians helping democrats work to flip arizona blue. what are you hearing from th? >> a lot of excitement first of all. i've talked to a number of people who've either done phone or text banking from california t there and been in full ppe to do doorknocking. i think they see this state as a real potential. mark kelly is. that's the democrat running against martha mcsally in the senate race there. we see bidenreally making some

inroads, and it's going to come down to i think a tight race there, but i think californians really felt this year, democrats least, thatthey di not want to be on the sidelines like they felt they might've been in 2016 waitin for resultand i think they say that you know, in recent weeks, conversations have sifted from we'll you vote for biden and harrison making sure balance are in. i think a lot of people these ti days are ed and tired of the calls and texts, and are saying at this point i voted, leave me alone, which ofcourse is a win for these volunteers. >> scott, let's move to the supreme court. it's already weighed in on one pect of the ection because they sided with the trump administration and wisconsin case preventing ballots from being counted after the election day, even if they were postmarks from before the he election have also taken some other actions. what are you watching? >> i think so far, supreme court has moly deferred to the states. had they not overturned or confmed what the state courts have tried to do, i think one of the most concerning aspect of all these ruliins happened wisconsin, where they decided , the court decided tophold si

wiscs rule that ballots that come in after the election would not be counted, even if they are postmarked by election day. and brett kavanaugh in his separate decision in that case suggested along the lines oft what presidtrump has been saying, which is that ballotsa come in after election day could, the word he used, flip the results, which is exactly what president trump has been saying to undermine the integrity and confidence in , t voti that really got the antennas up of a lot of the civirights and voting rights folks, democrats. there was another case in vermont where he alluded to vermont, where he incorrectly wrote what was happening vein ont, and the state asked him to change his decision. he wentback and amended a, so i think everyone is on hyper alert, and i think the big

question is what happens after the election? do some of these cases co back tocourt with amy coney barrett, who so far has no weighed in on any of these cases? >> we've been talking a lot about the presidency. ngthe democrats are fighto win the senate because they need to win the extra seats if biden/harris takes the white house or fourif trump/pence ticket. >> mitch mcconnell, the senate , majority learepublican says they are 50-50. we'vheard him warn republicans this could go democrats' way. don't want to say anything as for sure until those are counted, but therare nine republican seats either leaned democratic or are considered tossup's under the political report which is a prettyn well- úgroup. san analysis only one democrat. and arizona, we haveyou know, colorado where it looks good for democrats, and a number of other states. even places like georgia that a have been talkabout. uld not i think it's looking good for

dems, but obviously, we won't know until all the votes ar counted, and as scott happened, that doesnot haveto happen on election night. >> the state of state office released its final free election update on voter registration, and it says there's a record number ofia califo built million who've registered to vote. that's 2 million more than 2016. let's turn to a statewide ballot measure, prop. this would give cities more power to enact rent control, protections. w is that doing among likely california voters? >> not very well, anlaa si measure prop 10 was on the ballot a couple years ago, and was overwhelmingly rejected by voters. i think thistime around, some voters remember that earlier ballot measure and are wondering why is is back on the ballot cuba we have not changed our minds. governgi newsom signed ation expanding some protectionfor renters, so perhaps the voters want to wait and see how those steps addres the problem,t it is not doing well. it's under 40%, and that's not a good sign this close to

the election, so it has a real p climb to make. >> scott shafer anmarisa lagos leading our excellent politics team, thank you so much, and good luck over the next few days and weeks. >> thank you so much. visit gukqed.org/vote . at this timein 2016, just days before the presidential to election, hillary clseems like she had the win on lock. poll after poll predicted or easy victory, but that was no to be. so how could the pollsters be so wrong, and since they were wrong in 2016, could they be wrong again in edicting joe biden's victory this year? tonight, we delve into the history limitations of polling skype from kensington, maryland, joseph campbell, the author of "lost in the gallop thanks for joining us this evening, joe. >> it's a real pl on your show. y

journals before you became an academic. talk us through how you saw polling before you started on yo research for is book, and how those views have changed. >> i thought polling was pretty reliable. i gave polling the benefit of the doubt that these numbers, the numbers towere going be accurate, and i did not give it a second out, but as i got into the research for lost in the gallop, it becaclear that polling is an imperfect instrument, susceptible to failure and susceptible to errors of different kinds. >> you were spurred to write this book because of the 2016 c election. not help but look back at that and recalled how very wrong it went. is here come the polls ha genera joe biden ahead of donald trump. should we believe them? >> we should keep in mind that polling does have a checkered past, and it's important to recognize at polls cago

wrong, and when they go wrong, they can go wrong in surprising ways that havenot happened before, so not all polling failures are quite alike. just like no two presidential elections e the same either. we've seen the 2016 model policing the 1948 model when polled across the board were completely and uniformly wrong about dewey defeattruman election, when harry trumanwon a surprise and dramatic ecupset on. so we see all these different varieties of polling failure, if the nexttithe polls to come fail, they may fail in a surprising way, away we did not expect and a way that does not mirror any previous polling failure. >> let's talk about why some of this is. what are the challenges pollsters face when they are trying to get answs and put their finger on the pulse of americans? >> one of the biggest challenges in getting a decent response rate, and it used to be the gold standard of polling used to be that ey would us telephone, landline telephones,

random digit dialing so they could reach listed as well as unlisted phone numberbe and use most people in the country, and i'm thinking the 70s and 80s and into the 90s, had telephon, that was a pretty reliable method of getting a representative cross- section of the country. with the demise or the decline of land lines, we're seeing fewer and fewer people with land lines and fewer and fewer people answering the phone because they don't want t harassed by telemarketers or other scammers or whatever, so the response rates in lling by phone, the former gold standard, have dropped off dramatically into the single digits 5, 6, 7%, so to get a decentample that way very difficult, very time-consuming, and obviously very expensive, so that is a major principal challenge pollsters that arey facing these days. >> we do have the internet out. has not gotten any better? >> the internet is a tempting still have not figuout the hey way to get a real good representative sample using internet-based methodologies.

and pollsters have been trying since the late 1990s, since the early days ofthe popular internet to really tap that platform and figure out a way to get a reasonablyreliable sample and sofar it has not really happened. some polling organizations have recruited via the internet panels of respondents, people who did go back time and timeag n for responses, and that's a very promising methodology, but it is somewhatpensive and not everybody has adopted it . so the polling industry is one that is in a st right now, priya, and there's a th a lot of different going on methodologies. there is no single gold standard anymore. >> you know, a lot of our work as journalists is based on what we assee in the polls, where we see who is up and who is down, and viewers and voters, they depend on that yoformation. artelling us that really, we should not? >> we should not rule out pollsn is automaticallerror and

disregard them completely, but i think we should keep in mind that polling does have a checkered past. and to realize these are imperfect instruments. they are useful tools, but they are quite right. tool, but you journalists in particular rely heavily on polls to set the conventional or dominant narrative of election campaigns, and polls are the centerpiece of that narrative creation, if you will, and en polls gowrong, inevitably journalism stumbles a bit too. there is this relationship, polling failure equates to journalistic failure, and we saw that in 2002when polls were right, donald trump had no chance of winne election, and we recall the shock the day after the election, when trump won a >> hood you think is going to win the election looking at the

polls? >> are you going to do that? i wrote a book aboupolling failures, so i think i know best not to make any predictions, but let me tell you this, priya. are way off,, universally off, and joe biden is going to lose the popular vote in 2020? ke that is very un. that is very unlikely. now how the electoral college is going to break that even though are a few days of election, that is still up in the air. >> w. joseph campbell, thank you much for joining us on the show tonight, the authorof "lost in the gallop." >> priya, thank you very much, a pleasure. a new national poll by the associated press shows 85% of registered voters describe americans as being greatly divided in their values.'s political partisanship has mber of intermarriages w th between people in different political parties shrinking significantly. our next guests renin experiment on their dating podcast to get an inside look at this relationship phenomenon. joining me now by skype from ar

san francisco the cohosts of the datable podcast. ladies, thank you for joining us. tell us out this mini dating experiment, why you decided to run it? >> priya, gets pretty juicy because we talk about dealbreaker ou much on podcast, and a lot of people this year said a dealbreaker for me is dating someone of p opposiitical beliefs, so we thought that's a very strong statement. let's put that to the test, let's set up ngblind da experiment with two people who have opposing political beliefs , to see if romance can develop from that. so we reached out to facebook oups, our own communitr own network, as well as we went out there on social media to see who would be brave enough to partake. >> and you did eventually find two daters, kiki and tom. julie, tell us who they are, something about their backgrounds,and why you selected them. >> first and foremost, they were bh single. they arin their 30s in new york city, and kiki is more

liberal, voting fowhbiden, e tom is a registered republican and either voting for trump or jo jorgensen, and e thon why we picked that was they were first of all well versed in politics, so they could have a very educated, open conversation. they so found this experiment to be intriguing, sorethey ly came in with a very open mind. they also had a lot in common outside of politics, li they both were into arts, they both have similar values of what they were looking for in a lifestyles. milar >> in yue, did you find that you were sifting through the different applications of people who came in, that there were any differences between inpublicans and democrats their interest in dating across the aisle? mo >> the ats were very triggered. we got more messages from democrats who said i woulve partake in this. this is very triggering for me. i don't think i could go with this experiment, but the republican applicants were a

lot more open, and they said i have been wanting to have an open communication and on conversation with sofrom the democratic party, so they were much more open to it. >> julie, was that surprising to thtwo ofyou? >> it was, and i think what i learned too as people make rash generalizations about the party, where in today's world, it may not even be usdemocrat verepublican. it is what ever values that they have. >>yue, how did bringing a politics change the dynamic of the date for kiki and tom? t >> the fihalf of the day we told him no politics. they can talk about anything but. but the nd half of the day, a student of politics were on the table , we felt the tension, and that was a word that both of them used in their post-interview. they felt that uncomfortable tension, in because this is whre it got , when it got personal. but what was beautiful about this experiment was that by the end, they were able to find some sort of common groundand to openly hear each other out,

so it was nota conflict or it was not a debate. it was more about where can we find common ground. >> i want to listen to a frclip the zoom date you set up for them, and this is one in which they talk about presidenti trump, and begins at, so let's listen in. >> i think about, you know, his rhetoric being so aggressive. to me, and like his -- i don't think he's been running things very well in the pandemic. all of these ings, to me, have felt like almost personal, you know what i mean? how do you feel about that úwho feels what 's doing eone very personal and hurtful? do you align with that, sympathy for the, compassion for that? and how do that infohow you decide to move forward? >> i think i could start with denouncing racism. he certainly coulhave, and i would argue should have made a stronger statement than he did,

like that moment in the debate, but he speaks off-the-cuff, and his off-the-cuff remarks don't always come over very well. the other i guess counter to that is i think his bark is worsthan his bike. >> sojulie, how did this conversation continue to play out? did it foster understanding, or did it create more division between the two? >> i think both of daters walked away saying it was a good conversation. there was not a huge debate. there was that tension as yue mentioned. what we learned, though, is that everything else needs to ca be 100% e thisis still a big hurdle to overcome , and i think where kiki was coming from is that shfelt like a lot of this was personal, and tom could not fully understand. >> yue, for you, what were some takeaways from this experiment? >> one big take away is what

if we liapproached politics dating? these two people came on this date. you don't go on a date helping the other rson fails. so they cameon the day trying to find common ground and try to understand each other. we sometimes approach polics like a debate. we want the other party to fail, and we want to hear why they are so wrong and why we're so right, but in this experimentatyou could see they came in with such a positive, open mind, that they were able to more productive >> conversations. julie, do you feel the pandemic has shifted how people talk about politics? it seems they are bringing up earlier. >> absolutely. i think people are looking to get deeper, quicker because we're not dating multiple people at once, and we are ri potentially en these more rbo relationships that move faster, so you want to know someone that aligns with you pefrom a values pective. i think though inevitably, this election is just so huge, that it cannotcome up on a date

right now. >> if you were to run this experiment again, is there something you would do differently the next time around, yue?e >>d have time on our side. if we had more time, i would love to spaces out into three, four separate dates. time to digest what was said, then come back nice and fresh. i think another thing is, you know, wh really learned from this experiment is that we just have to go out and vote. i wish therwas more conversation that we would've brought in or prompted about voting it just shows you politics is a rsonal. kiki feltlike i'm voting with my heart, i'm voting with my, you know, with what i've experienced, and tom is very much about policy, so he's voting with what would benefit me from a political policy standpoint? >> julie, if you were to pull back a little bit and look the scene broadly, how would you say that the hyper partisanship of our electorate is being reflected in the dating pool, water the issues there? >> i think people e making blanket generalizations, and potentially ruling out half the dating pool. i think what i have learned

from this is that it is not so black and white. it's not that all blicans are exit all democrats are y, and i think people should look more at the dividual. of course if their values do not align with you, that's one ing, but i'm going to look at it less about you are republican, you are democrat, and more about what you stand r individually. >> julie krafchick and yue xu, thank you so much, ladies. >> thank you, priya. >> thank you. >> you can hear more about yue xu and julie stating experiment@databpodcast.com. and now, for a look at something beautiful. this week we step into a pumpkin patch or two to enjoy the rich colors and traditions of the season. >> place your pumpkins down.

>> like a captain! don't forget to turn your clocks back october 31, as we and my daylight saving teen. you can find more of our coverage at kqed.org/kqednewsroom. i'm priya david clemens. you can reach me on twitter, facebook, and instagram at priyadclemens. from all of us newsroom," thanks for joining us. good night. ♪ ♪

obert: tonight a special report inside the final days of this campaign. >> if i d sound like a washington pl decision it's because i'm not a politeian. >> need a president that's going to bring us together, not pull us apart. robert: the future of america on the line, as record numbers vote early and outbreaks spike in key states.ha >>s his closing argument? that people are too focused on covid. he's jealous of covid's media coverage robert: democrats hope far revival of the obama clition d push into the south and seat belt but it could all come down to pennsylvania.

>> what is trump