♪ : good evening. i'm judy woodruff. the death toll rises and already catastrophic flooding worsens in kentucky and other parts of appalachia. then, imprisoned in russia. the sister of an american sentenced to 14 years for cannabis possession discusses his exclusion from a proposed prison swap. >> as this deal currently stands, yes, we are very worried he's going to be left behind, and i worry there will not be another opportunity like this. judy: and it is friday. weighing in on the climate and health care deal in congress and consequences of the economy's

uncertain direction. all that and more on tonight's "pbs newshour." ♪ >> major funding for "the pbs newshour" has been provided by -- >> pediatric center, volunteer, topiary artist. a raymondjames financial advisor taylor's advice to he you live your life. life well planned. ♪ >> the john s. and james l. knight foundation. fostering informed and engaged communities. more at kf.org. ♪

>> and friends of "the newshour." ♪ this program was made possible by the corporation for public broadcasting and by contributions to your pbs station from viewers like you. thank you. judy: eastern kentucky is the epicenter tonight of the nation's extreme -- latest extreme weather disaster. at least 16 people have died in flooding that rewrote the record books and ravaged neighboring states as well. the town of garrett, kentucky, is hardly recognizable, inundated by torrents of rain water that flooded streets and wiped out homes and businesses. >> everything is gone.

my whole life is gone. >> her mother also had to be rescued. >> we had to put her on a door to get her out of the trailer. she was flooded in and cannot get out. >> search-and-rescueeams backed by the national guard are still searching for missing people, but determining the exact number of missing has been a challenge as many people were stranded without cellular service, and many are in areas still inaccessible to the cruise. >> we got folks now we cannot get to. they got water in their home and they are trapped, and we cannot get to them because the water is so swift. >> the historic flood struck in some of the state's smallest areas. as much as a foot of rain has fallen in the last week in counties near the border of virginia andest virginia. by this morning, more than 30,000 people have no power and many also lost water service. kentucky's governor today prepared his state for more grim days ahead.

>> we will continue to watch that. everybody out there, have a safety plan for when that comes. we don't want you to have to go through this twice. >> in the meantime, the rescue effort goes on around the clock. bashir predicted the damage would take at least a year to rebuild. meanwhile, a similar story in parts of western virginia and southern west virginia where flooding over took roads and brought down trees, leading both governors to issue emergency declarations in the hardest hit areas, and more rainfall in st. louis last night and into today, just days after a storm topped a daily rainfall record set back in 1915. >> our boat has arrived. >> this mother and her nine month old daughter had to be rescued from their home and pulled through what was once their neighborhood in hazelwood, missouri. the missouri department of transportation closed down for highways as well as several

other roads. back in kentucky, president biden declared the situation a major disaster, ordering federal aid to 13 counties to assist in recovery efforts. >> our hearts break for the families of those who have lost their lives or are missing and to all those who have been impacted. unfortunately, kentucky is no stranger to catastrophic climate events and the federal government will continue to provide assistance. >> more rain and storms are expected to continue into the weekend. ♪ nicole: i'm nicole ellis in for stephanie with "newshour west." we will return to the full program after the latest headlines. there's a new revelation in the january 6 investigation. "the washington post" reports text messages from the department of homeland security are missing him the period before the attack on the u.s.

capitol. they were sent by then acting homeland security secretary chad wolf and acting deputy secretary ken cuccinelli. the department says the messages were deleted after the officials turned in their phones. the chair of the january 6 committee says it is extremely troubling that the same thing happened at dhs and the secret service. the u.s. house of representatives voted to restore a ban on automatic weapons, often used -- on semiautomatic weapons, often used in mass shootings. the vote was along party lines. democrats and republicans debated the merits of the man -- the van -- the ban. >> my colleagues are proving yet again that they want to strip law-abiding citizens of their rights. the ban is unconstitutional and will impact american life. >> you have the right to keep and bear arms, but you don't have the right to own weapons

design to mow down people. we have a responsibility to try and stop mass shootings. nicole: a ban on assault-style weapons was enacted in 1994 but expired in 2004. previous attempts to renew it failed and the bill is expected to stall in the senate. the house approved wide-ranging legislation to help further protect western communities from wildfires and droughts field by climate change. if approved, federal wildlands firefighters would receive a boost in pay and benefits. the legislation would also help victims get more assistance. an index watch by the federal reserve shows a june increase of nearly 7% from a year ago, and employee wages rose 1.6%. that could fuel new inflation if employers ssed that cost to consumers. more oil companies have reported

record profits for t second quarter at a time when gas prices soared. exxonmobil made nearly $18 billion and chevron took in almost $12 billion. at the same time, oil production fell slightly from april to may. the industry suffered widespread bankruptcy and layoffs in the first year of the pandemic. stifling heat across the pacific northwest kept temperatures at or above 100 degrees again. the extreme temperatures could last through the weekend. if so, seattle could set a record, topping 90 for six days in a row. officials say the heat may have cost for deaths so far. in ukraine, shelling in the donbass region killed scores of captured ukrainian fighters, and both sides blamed each other. russian said at least 53 ukrainian prisoners died and 75 were wounded. the attack left burned rubble where jail cells had been. meanwhile, president zelenskyy

visited a port where ukrainian grain shipments are set to resume. >> our site is fully prepared. we sent all the signals to our partners, and their military guarantees the security situation. as soon as the turkish side and united nations a signal they are ready to receive cargo and we are ready to export, everything will begin. nicole: zelenskyy says he believes the first grain shipments could sail by tomorrow. u.s. secretary of state antony blinken and russian -- russia's foreign minister spoke about a possible prisoner swap. blinken said he again urged pressure to release wnba star brittney griner and paul whelan. the secretary of state did not say how the russians responded. pope francis has closed out his six-day visit to canada with an apology to indigenous peoples. in quebec city, members of his audience shed tears as the pontiff said church missionaries helped oppress native peoples for centuries. later he went to the arctic

circle to meet with survivors of residential schools. on the pandemic, the u.s. government agreed to by 66 million updated covid vaccine doses from mike turner today -- from moderna today. they will be stockpiled for the fall when health officials say a new wave of infections may strike. and on wall street, stocks closed out a winning month buoyed by strong corporate earnings. the dow jones industrial average gained 315 points to close at 32,800 45. the nasdaq rose 220 eight points. the s&p 500 added 57. for the month, the dow gained more than 6.5%. the nasdaq rose 12%. the s&p 500 jumped 9%, its best showing since november 2020. still to come, how a potential senate deal could lower americans' health care costs. far right supporters of former president trump's election lies

via for office. and much more. >> this "the pbs newshour those quote from -- newshour" from weta studios in washington and in the west from the walter cronkite school of journalism at arizona state university. judy: the senate is scheduled to vote on the president's proposed budget package next week. some key proposals aim to lower the cost of prescription medication for seniors. >> for the first time, the federal government could have the power to negotiate prices for some of the costliest drugs covered under medicare. the proposed legislation would also help medicare recipients by capping out-of-pocket drug costs at $2000 a year, imposing financial penalties on drug manufacturers to raise prices

faster than inflation, and removing the 5% co-pay beneficiaries must pay when they max out on coverage for high cost drugs. drug companies have bought these types of drug pricing reforms for years, but it bill passes, it could provide relief to millions of americans. for more, i'm joined by julie ruffner of kaiser health news. democrats have been trying to allow medicare to negotiate drug prices for some 20 years. have significant this be if this bill passes, and what impact would it have on people? >> is it's a big deal. democrats, as you say, have been trying to allow medicare to negotiate prices for, really, decades. going back to the 1980's, in 2003 when republicans passed the bill that created the medicare drug fit, medicare was effectively no allowed to negotiate prices, so it has been fighting about this ever since. it would start with just a few drugs, 10 the first year, and

not expand very much, but some of the most expensive drugs are in a norm as part of what medicare spends on drugs, so it could have an outsized impact. >> this is for 20 of the costliest drugs, correct? but does this apply to any new drugs? >> does not apply to new drugs initially. they have to have been on the market for some time without generic competition. these are drugs that are very expensive but do not have the thing that helps ringo's ices down. the government would step in to do that. eventually, it would be 20. at the beginning, it would only be 10, so tis is a very small number. >> as you know, inflation is high. people are worried about their expenses. what kind of savings will people see? >> people could see the significant savings. right now, as mentioned, there is a catastrophic portion of the medicare drug benefit where if you go over that, you only have to pay 5%, but that can be a lot of money with some of these really expensive drugs, so the

combination of not having to pay that 5% and not having to pay more than $2000 a year on co-pays could save millions of medicare beneficiaries a lot of money. >> democrats are also contemplating within this deal continued cost savings for people who have insurance under the affordable care act. what does it do in this bill? >> basically, it continues a policy congress put in place in 2021 that made larger subsidies for people buying coverage under the affordable care act who were already eligible and made some people who had not been eligible, those who earn about $50,000 a year or more have been ineligible for subsidies, so it made that people eligible. those will expire at the end of 2022 if congress does not extend them. this would extend them three years. it would be really important because if congress does not extend them, these people will start getting notices of premium increases. in some cases, could be premium

doubling's right around the time they vote. >> right, they would have gotten those right before november. that gets me to the politics of all of this. all the provisions we talked about that could potentially be passed, can you talk about the potential political benefit? >> this is something democrats have been promising for the last several elections and something they have not been able to deliver. as much as people are saying this is such a small piece of what started as president biden's build back better bill, it is still really significant. >> democrats are considering a measure to lower the cost of insulin that could be a potential at-in to this larger reconciliation bill. what we know so far about that? >> we know a lot of people who have supported this have said they want to add it. this has been a bipartisan effort to cap the price of

insulin for people with diabes basically at $35 a month. right now, there's people who die because they cannot afford insuli it is not clear exactly which provisions will make it in, but there is certainly an effort to do something in specific about insulin. >> as we mentioned earlier, inflation is high. americans are struggling to pay for groceries and other consumer goods, so when you look at this slew of health care benefits that could potentially pass, how much difference do you think it could make for people's bottom line? >> four the affordable care act, it will make a difference for them not getting a huge increase, which is not something that is really that small. even though it will not change anything, if they don't do it, it will go up very much, but rising drug prices have been a continuing problem. doing something about drug prices is very popular, even before we had this spate of high inflation. drug price inflation has been a problem going back many, many years. as i said, something both

parties would like to do. president trump tried to do something and did not get much done, so this would be a big win for democrats. >> thank you so much for joining us today. >> thank you. ♪ judy: voters in arizona had to the polls tuesday to cast ballots in the state's primaries, and in some key contests, leading republican candidates have doubled down on far right conspiracies denying the results of the 2020 election. stephanie sy has more on how these candidates are shaping the race. stephanie: republicans in arizona agree on a lot. >> i want to conserve traditional values, family values, first right amendment, second right amendment, 10th amendment, we the people.

>> we need to move on issues that are also critical like water and the border and the economy and maintaining the economy that arizona has been very lucky to have. stephanie: maricopa county is one of the largest counties in america. don and kathy both voted twice for donald trump, but a big issue divides them and many primary voters here -- if the 2020 election was rigged for joe biden. you believe it was stolen? >> i do. stephanie: that's not true. it was unsubstantiated. >> the fox news channel is calling arizona for donald trump. that is a big get. stephanie: fox news was the first project that biden had won arizona's, shocking pole supporters. including dawn.

>> fox news is on, and they announce trump lost arizona? arizona has been called? how could they call arizona? they had not even gotten the votes from our location. stephanie: news organizations do not tally paper ballots to project election winners, but to dawn, the early call was enough to so doubt, doubt that the former president and those who support him have exploded ever since. how successful that misinformation campaign is will be put to the test in arizona tuesday. republican candidates for some of the highest offices in the state -- governor, u.s. senator, and secretary of state -- have not only repeatedly talked about election fraud, they have made it a keystone of their campaigns. >> you have called joe biden and illegitimate president. what does that mean? >> he lost the election and should not be in the white house. we had a corrupt election.

i would like to ask everyone on this stage if they agree, we had a corrupt, stolen election. raise your hand. >>'s government campaign poste show her side-by-side with the former president. at a recent rally in tucson, lake repeated the trump playbook, accusing her opponent of getting ready to cheat in the primary. >> i guess if you are counting, you know, dead people, it makes me think they might be trying to set the stage for another steel. >> lake's campaign is nothing if not trump-inspired. a media personality with no political experience, a no holds barred style. stephanie: but the maga crowd

alone cannot get her the win. are you concerned that you have alienated those independents and some of those republicans who voted for biden in this state with all the talk about the certifying the election? -- about decertifying the election? >> i'm not going to change who i am. we want honest elections for our democrat friends, our independent friends, and our republican friends. stephanie: the current arizona governor and trump's vice president making the race a head-to-head fight between the two factions of the gop. >> i would say i'm a libertarian.

stephanie: he says not only was the election honest but that his republican colleagues who claim otherwise are challenging the underlying foundation of the united states. you are saying those voting machines were absolutely secure? >> that's a fact. every single test was used, they went through federal certification, through state certification, through tests before the election, through headcount audit by t political parties themselves, and it always matched 100%. stephanie: but that, spoken by a conservative who voted for trump, is still not enough for some voters, nor were the january 6 hearings that featured some of trump's closest allies. >> the election was not flawed, and i have not seen anything since the election that changes my mind on that. stephanie: you not have multiple people that were close to president trump saying there

just was not evidence to show widespreadraud that would have changed the outcome. multiple people have come out and said that they were trying to convince the president of this. >> believe there were people that were close to trump that were not close to trump in philosophies. stephanie: multiple investigations, court cases, and audits show the election was clean, and that was before millions of dollars were spent on a republican-commission hand count in arizona that also found biden was the winner, but all the "stop steel" talk continues and it has fallen on real people -- all the "stop the steal" talk continues, and it has fallen on real people. >> you -- we see who you are. we see you. you better be nervous. you should lawyer up.

u.s. corrupt -- you are as corrupt as the government you work for. >> that's what she finds almost every day when she checks her email. >> i do get concerned about people coming to the office who will not leave. certifying can become a challenge. stephanie: that's scary. >> that's very scary. what we are doing is very important. stephanie: hoffman resigned a week ago, ahead of tuesday's primary election. candidate blake masters is running for the gop nomination to challenge democratic senator mark kelly. he also got the blessing of former president trump after he questioned the results of the 2020 election. why are you hitching your wagon to a one-term president who lost this state two years ago? >> i would not say hitching my

wagon. i'm proud of president trump and what he accomplished. i'm not going to run from president trump's successful term. do you know how many independents i meet who say they are sorry they voted for biden because they want a country that works? stephanie: kathy, a republican organizer, once those same things but says she will not vote for any candidate who promotes electric fraud claims. >> we cannot have that dangerous medic -- rhetoric, and it cannot come from arizona executives. this is why i'm going door to door. i know people who really have the heart and soul of arizona in their best interests here for our state. that's why i will go every single day and knock doors until we can't. hi, how are you? i'm kathy and i'm going door to

door for candidates who are running for office. >> she is as undeterred by the extreme heat of the arizona summer as she is by the extreme views dividing her political party. judy: amid the back-and-forth between russia and the u.s. over americans detained in russian jails, one american has not been part of those intensifying negotiations. >> pressure's foreign minister said today he will soon propose a date for talks with wes secretary of state blinken as russia weighs a prisoner swap to free 10 americans brittney griner and paul whelan, but there is a third american also held by russia and detained now

for almost a year. his name is mark vogel. he is a 61-year-old teacher who has lived and worked in russia for nine years and in a case similar to greiner's, he was arrested when russian airport authorities found vague cartridges and cannabis oil in his luggage. he was accused of attempting to sell to students, convicted, and sentenced to 14 years of hard labor. his family says he suffers from chronic pain and the marijuana was medicinal. they want the u.s. government to bring him home. joining me now is his sister. welcome to the newshour and thank you for joining us. first and foremost, tell us, how is your brother doing? have you been able to talk with him power communicate with him in any way? >> no one has talked to him. we are able to write letters through the russian prison system. it is a bit of a convoluted system, though, because while

sometimes he is able to get our letters in english, sometimes he gets them in russian and then they get translated into english, and then we get a photocopy picture of a handwritten letter, and then we have to find a translator where we are. there's a lot lost in translation. >> i'm sure you were watching secretary blinken announcing this week they have put forward a deal to russia. secretary blinken mentioned brittney griner. he mentioned paul whelan. he did not mention your brother's name. i just wondered what you thought in that moment? >> it was a gut punch. we have been trying to raise our voices. we were advised by the state department to keep a low profile through sentencing, which we did , and we have been really trying to follow the rules and give the russian judicial system a chance

to work. things have gotten so much -- the relationship has gotten so much worse, so it became apparent that time was not playing in our favor at all. it is hard to hear secretary blinken talk about greiner and whalen -- and whelan and not talk about him at all. >> do you believe president biden is doing everything he can for your brother? >> no, i don't, because he has not been declared wrongfully detained and we need that moniker to move him into the category of potential for a swap, but i'm hopeful things will come right. we have gotten a lot of letters sent to the state department. there is a petition now that is going about, and of course, we are on "the newshour, so this is a very positivehing and

luckily, we have had some other coverage as well, so we are very, very thankful for that. >> tell us a little bit about your brother. he had been living in russia for nine years. he was teaching at what i understand was a national school where u.s. and canadian diplomats send their kids. >> mark had always had a wanderlust and chose to join the international community 36 years ago. he has lived in i think seven different countries with his wife and kids. they raised their kids overseas. he comes home every summer and every christmas, but their life has been overseas, and they love that. they love russia and they love the russian people. he is a true blue history

teacher. he is an extremely passionate person. he was really able to make that work in his life where he got to do his passion, and i don't life as a result. worked his i think his students would say the same thing. he has inspired a lot of people, including the son of former ambassador mike mccall. his son was in marc's class as well. >> we know he has been among those publicly calling for your brother's release. your family has said publicly he suffers from chronic pain and that's why he had the medicinal marijuana with him. a 14-year prison sentence. what are you worried that would do to him? >> he is meant to go to a work colony. i don't see how that would be possible. his first back surgery was at 30 years of age, and he has had one failed back surgery after another, which then culminated

in hipper placements and shoulder surgeries -- hip replacements and shoulder surgeries. he is not able to do manual work at this point. one leg is appreciably smaller than the oer. he's got very significant scarring on his back. i just don't understand how the russian courts did not look at the stack of medical files that we sent and sent him home at that point. it is crushing. he will not survive this. he will not survive 14 years in a work colony. i think it is inhumane for the u.s. government to leave him. that's how i feel. >> have you or anyone in your family asked to speak directly with president biden? >> yes. president biden, i want to talk

to you. please. he's a schoolteacher. he has done amazing things. he does not belong in a russian jail. i would love to speak to president biden. he's my president, but, no, we have not spoken with him. >> if this deal goes through, are you concerned your brother will be left behind? >> as the deal currently stands, yes, we are very worried he will be left behind, and i worry there will not be another opportunity like this. the thought of never seeing him again is terrifying. >> is there anything else you want people to know about your brother? >> he is an extraordinary person. he is an extraordinary teacher, and he needs to come home. he just needs to come home. >> the sister of mark vogel, who

is currently detained in russia. thank you so much for your time. >> thank you for sharing our story. ♪ judy: with inflation at a 40-year high in the u.s., we are all spending more when we go to the store, but our economics reporter says there is another dimension of inflation these days. shrink inflation -- shrinkflation. >> what is this? the rogues gallery? >> the first one here is kind of an egregious example. angel soft toilet paper used to have 425 sheets on aoll. the new one has 320. >> wow, that's 25%. >> that's almost two full roles

in the new sizing. but look at the packages. don't they look on most identical? >> do they ever. and that's the key to what is being called shrinkflation, according to this man who has been tracking product downsizing for decades. >> i remember the shaman of the 1960's. >> squeeze the melon, but please don't squeeze the shaman. >> it had 600 50 sheets on a roll. the biggest one today has 360 six. it's about 90% less. >> and it is not just toilet paper. ice cream stubs used -- ice cream tubs used to be a half-gallon, then one and three-quarter courts and have now trimmed to a svelte one and a half because lately it has been the incredible shrinking everything. >> it tends to come in waves. we happen to be in the middle of a title wave at the moment because of inflation. >> that's because material and

transportation costs have been soaring since the much-reported supply chain snags. how to best report -- how to best pass them on to consumers? >> manufacturers life both about raising the price and shrinking the product. the difference is they know consumers are price conscious, and consumers will catch the fact is that container of orange juice went from $2.99 to $3.29, and they will balk, complain, switch to another ran, but they know consumers are not net weight conscious. most will not notice if the product has gotten a little bit smaller. >> especially not if the shrinkage is pretty much indiscernible. what is that -- dishwashing detergent? >> this is dawn. you lost half an ounce. honest-to-goodness, i don't know how they did it. the bottom line is you are getting half an ounce less. here's post honey bunches of oats. the old one was 14.5 ounces.

the new one is 12 ounces. to look athe boxes, they look identical straight on, but you've got 17% less. that translates into two fewer balls in the new box, and the price is the same. >> the official inflation rate is 9.1 percent. the honey bunches rate, 17%. no wonder corporations are posting record profits. they can raise prices above the overall inflation rate and we will not en notice. >> gatorade -- forever, it has come in 32-ounce bottles. the new one is 28. you lost fr ounces in each one, but you look at them, and they are the same height. what did they do? >> they squeezed the midriff. >> they gave it a waistline, that's exactly right. the company says now it's easier to hold. thank you very much. i'd rather have the other four

ounces and i'll suffer the old one. folgers ground coffee recently reformulated. they said they fluffed up the beans, so they could no longer put 51 ounces of ground coffee into their canisters. they could only fit in 43 point five ounces, but they are still claiming it makes up the 400 cups with half a pound less of coffee. you'll have to decide as a coffee drinker, is it still the same cup that you used to get? >> so the onus is on the consumer to be hypervigilant -- hypervigilant. in the supermarket, there's that unit price for everything, right? >> i don't know the statistics. my sense is it is very low. where unit pricing does not help is where the individual product changes, so unless you have memorized that your keebler cookies work 14.3 cents an ounce

and now it is 16.7 cents an ounce, it's not going to help you. >> i would be totally overmatched. >> is it's bad enough that i tried to counsel people, look at the net weight, the net count, memorize it, and when you go to the store, double check that it has not changed. how else are you going to make a choice intelligently if you don't know what it used to be? >> that's almost impossible. who is going to keep track of things like that. >> here. >> but you are either a professional or a lunatic. >> a little bit of both. >> inflation at the store these days turns out to be even more pronounced than we realize because of shrinkflation. ♪ judy: the apparent senate deal to address health care costs and

climate change is not everything president biden wanted, but it does revive a sizable chunk of his legislative agenda. meanwhile, the economy is baffling experts as it lurches further into uncharted territory. to consider all this, we turn to the analysis of two columnists. it has been a full week, and let's start with the democrats' deal. when we were lashed together last friday, we all thought the president's budget was dead. the package with climate and health care in it. little did we know that joe manchin was having these secret talks with chuck schumer, but they have cooked something up. what does it look like to you, and what do you think the prospects are? >> one, we learned the lesson in

washington which is never say die. when it seems like a deal is done, it's over, there's no movement, sometimes something happens like we saw this week and suddenly you realize these folks have been meeting behind closed doors and hammered out a deal, and the fact that senator manchin, who killed what was being called build back manchin and said i'm done, not doing it, setor manchin was the one who announced what has been renamed the inflation reduction act of 2022. he declared that build back better is dead, but there are climate provisions. there is a prescription drug plan. thursday 15% corporate minimum tax. also it's of incentives and rebates and things aimed at clean energy, so it is not build back better. his is not the big,

transformative tilde president wanted at the beginning of his term, bu in the grand scheme of things, it is most definitely better than nothing. now, you asked me what are its prospects. the prospects are iffy right now. we have also been so focused on senator manchin that we forgot that in the senate, there's another senator we have not heard from, and that is kyrsten sinema. we have no idea if she supports this, and that is imperative and important because democrats will need all 50 votes plus the vice president in order to pass it out of the senate, and that's a whole other problem. judy: it is a shrunken version -- it is a smaller version of what ayden wanted -- of what biden wanted, but what do you

make of this? it is a u-turn on the part of joe manchin. does it look meaningful? >> it has shrunk from $2.2 trillion, but it is the biggest climate bill in u.s. history. over the last couple of weeks, we have had the chips act about microchip production. we've had bipartisan gun-control legislation, and we possibly have seen the passage of this very significant piece of legislation. that's what joe biden on, so his presidency to me is looking a lot more successful than it did a week ago. it is a pretty smart -- pretty strong legacy going forward. he is sort of delivering on what he said. what strikes me about bidenonom ics is it started out with a big childcare peace. helping senior citizensn the care economy and a big let's invest in america. the former t have not passed,

but the last third appears to be on the verge of passage. judy we don't know what's going to happen. we are waiting to see what happens. meantime, a number of republicans are really unhappy with mitch mcconnell. they think he did not handle this thing very well. what do you think the political fallout from this will be? >> senator mcconnell is the master of the dark arts, dark parliamentarian arts in the senate, and if he feels played, as the "wall street journal" editorial page declared that he was, he will exact some kind of revenge againstmma kratz. it is just a matter of how is he going to do it? will he be able to do it? could he exact revenge maybe not on this bill, but in the respect for all marriages act, which

senator collins expressed concern that that bill and passage of that bud in the senate could be victim to them. we were talking about that bill last week. there were five senate republicans who said that they would vote for it, meaning there were five more republicans to say tha >> when we were talking about it last week. all they needed were five more republicans to say they would vote for. they cleared the threshold and would be able to get it passed. i have not heard anything about it since last week. i most definitely have not heard anything about it since the inflation reduction act was revealed and since the chips act has been passed. the political fallout, at least in terms of the senate remains to be seen. we have to remember something. just because there is a deal with joe manchin, once it gets over to the house there is a whole new ballgame that gets played. you have moderate democrats in

the house who are upset that salt provisions are not in there. state and local taxes are not part of the reduction act. how do they handle that issue once the bill gets to the house? that remains to be seen. >> just, again, on this republican disagreement over it. the message seems to be if you work with democrats you will be punished. >> that has been the message for a little while. mcconnell does not control the senate. it's a democratically controlled senate. what strikes me is how joe manchin looks skillful. he took a lot of heat over the past year. if we come to this deal at the end of the day, he gets the investments he wants. he gets expanded energy drilling and things like that. he gets genuine deficit reduction and no inflation. i think one of the things that

turned his mind was the realization that his idea that this was an inflationary bill is wrong. i think he had a bit of an intellectual awakening. it shows all the members of the senate. we pay too much attention to leadership. if any one person who is willing to take the heat has enormous power. he was willing to take the heat and so far it has been enormous. >> one of those that has hit the road after this deal is about the packed act. it provides government aid to military veterans who were exposed to toxic chemicals. these were veterans who came home with serious medical problems. it looked like it was on its way to passage and now republicans in the senate are saying, wait

a minute. it has caused a lot of reaction. john stuart, this is what he had to say yesterday. >> these people thought they could finally breathe. do you think their struggles and because this passes? all it means is they do not have to decide between their cancer drugs and their house. their struggle continues. these people will not give up. they will not give in and they will not relent. this is an embarrassment to the senate, to the country, to the founders, and all that they profess to hold dear. >> he used much stronger language than that going after the republicans who he says are holding this up. what about this argument he is making that essentially they said yes and now they are saying no? >> at best it is a mystery. at worst it is mind boggling. just a month ago the vast

majority of republican senators voted for this thing. some significant number shifted and now they are against it. is a back for what joe manchin and chuck schumer judge? that would be mind-boggling. you have people suffering from cancer and other ailments and we will take away benefits because of legislation? who does that? pat toomey has some principal reasons for budget policy and what we could afford. it the votes were changed because mitch mcconnell said we need to screw somebody, that would be appalling. >> what you make of what republicans are doing on this so-called armpit legislation? >> in a word, it is appalling. let's talk about what has happened. justin june, the bill passed out of the senate with 84 votes. 84 and went to the house.

the house made a minor change and that's why it was back in the senate for a vote. 25 republicans who had voted for back in june, they opted to vote against the bill. senator toomey, his problem was that funding was be moved from discretionary within the bill to mandatory. he was calling it a budget to make. you know who does not care whether it is a budget gimmick? the families that john stuart was talking about. the veterans who worked in the burn pits and are suffering with the ailments. it's the families of those veterans who are's pick and/or have died. it's the families who are dealing with the financial burdens that john stuart was talking about. they could not care less about whether it is discretionary or mandatory. they just want to know that

their government that they went overseas to protect and defend, is going to protect and defend them now that they are back home. the fact that a bill passed with 84 votes and then could not get out of there because 25 republicans change their votes, on those it is on those republicans to explain to those families, not john stuart, those families why it was more important to vote against a bill that would help them right now than it was to do what they did over legislative peak because of some budget nonsense. >> they say it will come up for a vote and will be on the floor and monday. i'm saving the last one and a half minutes to ask you to clarify what is going on with the economy. inflation is rising, the federal reserve is focused on that.

dark signals about a recession, we just saw corporate earnings are way up. what is going on? >> it is complicated. we need more than 90 seconds. inflation is terrible. i think the white house is being too gentle about talking about it. labor markets are quite good. gas prices are coming down. the post covid slowdown looks very different. the problem is it is very hard to bring down inflation in a way that is a soft landing. the historical record is not good. we may see something bumpy and unpleasant. >> what is your forecast? what do you think? >> i don't know. everything is so contradictory. the pce number that came out, the highest in 40 years it is the inflation marker that the feds use as their marker.

in that same report, it showed that wages are up. not as much as inflation, explain that to me. inflation and wages are, stuck stock market is up, gas prices are going down, but we are going into a recession? >> it is clear as mud. thank you both. right now, some of the residents of mariposa county were evacuated earlier this week has the threat of the oak fire was nearing. you can listen to their reflections on our instagram. for more analysis of the week of setbacks and political

wins for president biden, don't forget to join the washington week panel on pbs tonight. tomorrow, jeff bennett weeks to a texas woman caught up in the state abortion laws after she suffered a miscarriage. why her story could become more common after the supreme court decision to overturn roe v wade. that is it. thank you, please stay safe, and we will see you soon. "thes newshour" has been provided byes -- ♪

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rising sea levels will cause portions of the san francisco bay area to eventually flood. we will talk about how that will affect residents and industrial sites like a hazardous waste treatment facility on the short. monkeypox cases are spreading across california. we will talk about what you need to know. we will visit an interfaith chapel in memory of those who have died in the aids epidemic and those who continue to fight the disease.