yamiche: biden's shifting political fortune. and trump returns to washington. >> the government announced what every american has been feeling for nearly a year. we are in a recession. pres. biden: we have a record job market, record unemployment, that doesn't sound like a recession to me. yamiche: democrats and republicans battle it out as the economy shrinks for the second time this year. the president scores a rare bipartisan legislative win. and his agenda gets a surprise boost as key democrats in the senate appear to strike a deal on his top domestic priorities. plus -- >> it looks like my father's handwriting. yamiche: the january 6 committee drills down on former president trump's role around that violent day. and the justice department looks

into trump's actions as part of a criminal probe into efforts to overturn the 2020 election. next. announcer: this is "washington week." corporate funding is provided b. additional funding is provided by koo and patricia yuen through the yuen foundation, committed to bridging cultural differences in our communities, sandra and carl delay-magnuson, rose hirschel and andy shreeves, robert and susan rosenbaum, the corporation for public broadcasting and by contributions to your pbs station from viewers like you. thank you. once again from washington moderator yamiche alcindor. yamiche: good evening and welcome to "washington week."

this week the range of president biden's political fortunes was on full display. he dealt with grim economic reports and enjoyed surprise legislative wins. on wednesday, the federal reserve took another aggressive step aimed at tackling inflation. it increased interest rates by three quarters of a percentage point. then in a surprise move, senator joe manchin of west virginia announced he and senate majority leader chuck schumer reached an agreement on president biden's top domestic agenda items. this is a deal that had seemed dead for months. $739 billion agreement is named the inflation reduction act. they say it taxes climate change, increases taxes on the wealthiest corporations, lowers health care costs, and fights inflation. >> this is a good piece of legislation. this is not american or republican. it's an american legislation. it really is. yamiche: but democrats weren't able to enjoy that good news for too long. on thursdayorning, new numbers

showed last quarter the economy shrank by .9%. and had a news is making people worried even more about a potential recession session. >> do democrats really believe that spending hundreds of billions of tax dollars right now while pursuing and punishing rich investments in the long run will lower inflation? yamiche: joining me to discuss this and more, jonathan lemire, white house bureau chief for politico suspect host of msnbc's way too early. he is also the author of the new book out this week "the big lie." election chaos, political opportunism, and the state of american politics after 2020. thank you, jonathan, for staying up with us and we also have ayesha rascoe, host of n.p.r.'s "weekend edition" and joining me at the table, john bresnahan, a political newsletter punch bowl that we're watching and reading and amara omeokwe, economics report for "the wall street journal." thank you all for being here.

when i saw this week happening, i was like where are you? and could she come on the show? because so much going on, right? you told our producers that the guiding -- driving theme of this week was whether or not we were in a recession. president biden has been saying we're not in a recession. but of course the g.o.p. has been saying we're in a biden recession. so ultimately who decides of we're in a recession and practically what does that mean? amara: the reason why we have mixed mesging on whether or not we are in a recession and because there is no presis definition of what a recession is. so you have this common short-hand definition of two quarters of economic contraction which we have now. the g.d.p. figures are showing that. but also this official nonprofit academic group national bureau of economic research, they are the ones who make the official declaration of a recession and they have not called that yet. and they often don't call recessions in real time. they usually do that sort of after the recession has already begun. and what the biden administration is arguing is that that academic group look at a wide range of factors when they're considering whether or not we're in a recession.

they look at the labor market. they look at household balance sheet. they look at things like that. and when you look across the economy, there are still some signs that things are going well. but of course there are other signs that things are slowing down. and so there's really that tension there. yamiche: and the tension that's there ask a lot of economic developments that you just said the g.d.p., the fed hikes, i wonder when you think about sort of -- a regular american who is watching all this, wondering what's most important and how does that impact every day americans who are just trying to survive, what would be the answer? amara: well, americans overwhelmingly say that they are very concerned about inflation. they're concerned about the higher prices they're seeing for everyday staples like food, like gas, like rents. a lot of americans are feeling that pain. and we see the federal reserve responding as you said sort of ratcheting up their response to try and bring down inflation. that by far is going to be the st important factor in the months to come about where inflation goes and where the economy goes. and part of what's driving these recession fears is that what the fed is doing could slow the

economy to the point where we do see a significant economic slowdown where we do see a recession. now, the fed hazards they are trying to avoid that -- has said they are trying to avoid that and there is some fear that they won't be able to pull that off. yamiche: and talking about pulling things off, john, this was a big week in congress, i was shocked when i saw that this deal, this appears -- and want to say the deal appears to be stricken becau sort of couch things i've learned that from my friends at punch bowl news that nothing is done until it's done. but tell me a little bit about what you're hearing from both sides, democrats and republicans, about this reconciliation deal and its significance. john: yeah. you had it in your lead-in, senator manchin and senator majority leader chuck schumer inc.ked a $740 billion agreement. it's not finalized. it's still being reviewed. there -- has to go through a technical review process and then the senate will take it up next week and start voting on portions of it. there will be amendments. there will be a real long

process to -- going to take a couple of weeks to get ts through congress. maybe they finish it in the senate next week and maybe the week after and the house comes back. but this was a shocker. we didn't see it coming. manchin had walked away from some negotiations for the second time just recently. but he kept saying he -- you know, i'm still at the table and still at the table and he would walk by us in the capitol, ok, you're still at the table. but we didn't believe him. i talked to him from 20 minutes the other night. he just said you know, he really wanted to make a deal. he h always wanted to make a deal and he knew what everyone was saying about him. and he was completely aware of what progressives and democrats were saying about him. but he never felt he had gotten in the place but he gave credit to schumer and schumer does deserve credit. he stayed with him. even when the white house was fed up with manchin and president biden, you know, had -- was not happy when build back better fell apart but manchin got to a place where he thought there could be a deal and comfortable with what he'd seen and he feels like the

country needs this kind of deal right now. yamiche: and a quick follow you mentioned build back better. what's the name change? what's in tha john: well, you know, what's funny because we were calling id nicknamed this bill back -- build back manchin and he didn't like that and calling it the inflation restriction act. yamiche: the build back better act? john: no, it is not. there are elements of it. medicare prescription drug negotiations. there is some corporate tax increases. or corporate minimum tax. there's three years of obamacare subsidies. there's a huge investment in climate change and energy credits. there's some very interesting energy tax credits on that. there's something on -- carried interest, this is for very wealthy money managers, they -- yamiche: a very big bill with loovment stuff in it. -- with a lot of stuff in it. jonathan, i have to come to you. what's the white house strategy when you think about the fact that president biden was at the podium, at the white house saying this bill is going to reduce inflation? jonathan: well, they know that inflation is still top of mind

for most americans. and probably still the defining issue heading into these mid-terms in november. and you just laid out there the mixed economic picture we have in this country right now. the white house let's just put their -- they're cautiously optimistic, cautiously gleeful at the possibility that they can get this bill done. as john just said, the president was so frustrated with joe manchin when he blew up the process back in december and did so on fox news which really rubbed a lot of people on the west wing the wrong way and certainly the white house never quite gave up hope but they deferred to schumer here. the president took -- was hands off. much like with the gun legislation that got done a few weeks ago thinking his presence might be a problem even at times. schumer and manchin were the lead on this. but schumer stayed in close touch with the white house as it went. and they were so very pleased that they were on the precipice of getting this done. and obviously we're still looking at senator sinema of arizona who seems to pride herself in being an enigma and has not yet committed to support

this legislation. but if it does go through, not only does it give democrats something tangible to run on going into this november, but it changes the fortunes for this president as well who was just about a year ago when the afghanistan withdrawal went poorly, and the delta variant showed up, that at that point president biden had a really strong first six or seven months in office and things went off the rails and the white house has struggled to find its footing since. but this would be a significant win, along with the bipartisan infrastructure deal along with that first covid relief package, and suddenly aides are saying the entirety of the presidency so far needs -- would be transformed. yamiche: yeah. and ayesha, i want to come to you because jonathan says the white house is cautiously gleel. when you look at the american people and you look at the polls, they're not cautiously gleeful. what are you hearing from your sources about what everyday americans are feeling in this economy and how this legislation is -- this deal might change that? ayesha: well, you know, every day americans and we talked to a lot of them on "weekend edition"

about how their prices are going up, whether it's for gas, or whether -- you know, it's their energy bills, all of these things, they're feeling the strain. like they want to know -- they're having a hard time getting by. they're working multiple jobs. they're trying to figure out how to make it and they feel like they can't. i think this bill is going to be a very big deal if it passes for biden's political future. but the thing of it is that it's going to take time for these things to be implemented. for them to make a difference. whether they make a difference before the midterm is really unclear. and it's not clear that it will make a difference in people's pocketbooks immediately. and that's what they want. they want relief. yamiche: people want relief, marianna, as ayesha just said. how much power and how much influence can the white house and congress really have on inflation? marianna: fiscal policy can do things at the margins so the initial analysis about this inflation reduction act does say that it could reduce inflation somewhat.

not a lot. and that it quoant happen quickly as ayesha was referencing. it's not something that will happen before the midterms and not something that will happen in the short term and maybe in 2024 and after and that shows again that the fed really really is the major player here. yamiche: john, i also think about senator sinema and jonathan got at the fact she hasn't been onboard and what are you hearing whether this deal will become an actual bill and agreement that will end up being signed by president biden? john: manchin told me he had spoken to sinema about this. he wasn't speaking for her, he thinks she could be in a good place on this. she's not saying anything. she plays this very close to the vest. sinema is -- she's -- she will get into the folks i talked to who talked to her about this, senators, and house members, they -- you know, she'll get into the nitty-gritty on this and really look at it. she doesn't like tax increases. that was her big problem with the build back better. so this is going to be -- it's going to be an issue for her. we may see some tweaking on this. i'm not se.

we may -- what if sinema came back and said i can support this and work it with map -- manchin but sinema is the key vote. yamiche: sinema being the key vote you wrote this amazing lead that caught my attention in politico. you said somehow, some way, joe biden is back in the game. can you talk a bit more about that given what john just said? jonathan: certainly not done yet. but if this were to come to be and if biden perhaps even plays the role of a closer here, it would be a significant win for this white house. this is -- as -- a moment ago, the string of really tough luck for this president. as well as mistakes made along the way. it's been a string of bad news here. and for instance, he has received high marks from both sides of the aisle for his -- the way he's rallied the world to help ukraine defend itself against russia. but that's not getting him any votes at home. americans don't vote on foreign policy and on domestic issues democrats really facing some head winds here. we see that in the polls.

but if this can be a win, and it should be white house aides were noted the timing tuch that it came -- timing of it that it came after president biden ended his covid isolation and seems to have beaten the veers without much trouble it could be the start of a new chapter and maybe see his poll numbers go up and point to a first year and a half and will be two years with some pretty sizable accomplishments. that can match up with some of his democratic predecessors first two years as well. yamiche: and talking about sort of a new chapter, marianna, a key part of maybe starting a new chapter will be gas prices. the white house has been saying they're coming down and they're coming down. others say it's still high. what's your understanding of the way forward what's next especially when it comes to gas prices? marianna: the question is will we continue to see declines? if you talk to administration officials, they certainly say that a potential risk for the economy in the months to come is the potential for energy prices to go back up. and so what they've been working on on the international stage with international allies is trying to implement this cap on

russian oil. essentially trying to, you know, keep global oil supplies high while limiting the revenues that russia receives from its sales of oil. but those negotiations are complex and ongoing right now. so you know, the question is will the reductions that we saw continue? and it's -- still to be determined. yamiche: and we only have 30 seconds because i want to get -- john, chips passed. the congress maybe is working? john: remarkable. jonathan was talking about it. biden has -- if they get this reconciliation bill, he has a pretty decent record for 50-50 senate and a four-vote margin in the house. chips passed. they got a $280 billion bill and not going to help anybody right now but in the long term this could be good for the country. yamiche: yeah. well, we'll have to keep talking about the economy but thank you, marianna, for joining us and for sharing your reporting. the january 6 committee's public hearings may be on hiatus. but that hasn't stopped its members from sharing new details about their investigation. on monday, representative elaine

luria of unseen testimony from ivanka trump talking about her father editing the script of a speech his staff had prepared and former president refused to include language that he thought was too critical of the capitol hill rioters. president biden condemned former president trump's failure to act. >> for three hours the defeated former president of the united states watched it all happen while he was doing that brave law enforcement officer subject to the medieval evil. face-to-face with crazed mob that believed the lies of the defeated president. yamiche: on tuesday former president trump made his first trip back to d.c. since leaving office in a speech he continued to spread lies about the 2020 election. >> i always say i ran theirst time and i won. then i ran a second time and i did much better. we got millions and millions more votes. and you know what? that's going to be the story for a long time, what a disgrace it

was. yamiche: and an interesting split screen moment, his former vice president, mike pence, also spoke in washington on the same day to a different group. now, pence who we should remind people came close to being assaulted on january 6 argued that the g.o.p. needs to be focused on the future and not the past. so jonathan, i want to come to you. you have this book out and you talk about the big lie. tell us a bit about sort of what you make of president trump's speech continuing -- former president trump's speech continuing to spread lies and the split screen that we just showed there. jonathan: well, first of all, pretty good viral marketing for my book. so thank you, mr. president, for that. no. it shows, though, that the big lie did not go away on january 6. and in fact, donald trump is still fully embracing it. he refuses to look forward. he only wants to look forward and relitigate 2020. much to the chagrin of many others in the republican party who do feel that they have a pretty good political environment this fall. and they don't want to be

talking about 2020. they frankly don't want to be talking about donald trump. but he refuses to let it go and the lying just continues. and it's also shaping the republican party. so many republicans have gone along with it. and even if they privately disagree they don't dare publicly break with his erroneous claims of election fraud. we know it's a litmus test for a lot of the candidates that he supported this year. a number of whom won their primaries but not all. the split screen with pence was interesting. because pence represents that wingive republicans who largely support most of what trump has done but won't go so far as to back him on what happened january 6. now, the january 6 committee hearings seem to have taken a bit of a toll on former president trump's poll numbers and slipped slightly among republicans but only slightly. he is still by far the most powerful figure in the party. and raptorsly received many his speech in d.c. the other day. he is certainly the favorite to be the republican nominee in 2024 were he to choose to run. and he's threatening to do so and announced that candidacy

before the midterms which would be a disaster, many republicans say, because it would certainly change the political conversation. but his -- his adherence to the big lie showing no signs of evading. yamiche: and ayesha, jonathan talking about the developments on the january 6 front we saw in play for people that we got that information that former present trump didn't want to say that the people who broke into the capitol weren't part of his movement. what do you make of these new developments when you think about the fact that the president that we covered together continues to lie? ayesha: well, i mean, i think that as we -- at the end of the day, this is what trump does. he's not going to let go of 2020. this idea of moving on and looking at the future is just not what trump does. trump never let go of 2016. and he won in 2016. so he's not going to let go of 2020 when he lost. and so that's what you're seeing. and i think -- with pence having this kind of -- trying to show that he was a little bit separate and by saying, look, we

should look to the future, but the problem is these little slight kind of head nods to lika little bit of a different direction that's not going to work with trump. he doesn't do subtlety and he's like either with him or you're against him. and right now, much of the republican party is with him. yamiche: and ayesha, you talk about him like someone who covered him for years. who knows exactly what happens and also want to talk to you because here it is, the d.o.j. is investigating former president trump's actions as part of a criminal probe into efforts related to overturning the 2020 election. as you see this, this information, what comes to mind when you think about what the d.o.j.'s work is at this point and we know about their investigation? ayesha: well, the fact that they are saying this reporting is coming out is important, especially for those democrats and others who are frustrated becausthey feel like these january 6 hearings are going on,

and in their mind, they're hearing that this was the former president that they believed could be illegal, that he should not be treated as if he is above the law. and that they want to know what's being done about it. like people who are -- who are not fans of former president trump want to know what is going to be done? is all this information going to come out and then nothing is going to happen? so i think it's important that, you know, that you hear that there's going to be an investigation. but the thing is we don't know where that investigation will lead. and there have been a lot of investigations about trump. and as we both know, and they ven't really you know amounted to much. he has been able to come out, you know, on the other side of all of them so far. and so we have to, you know, be clear with viewers that we don't know what's going to happen with this investigation from the d.o.j. yamiche: we certainly don't know what's going to happen and john, as we think about this investigation there's another mystery after mystery opening

up. this time it's the department of homeland security that's lost some text messages. i want to say that representative jamie crass kin said -- jamie crass kin i don't know why everyone's texts and emails are disappearing all at once and i assume not a technological problem and this maybe nefarious. what are you hearing and what do you think? john: i was talking to crass kin about this. the january 6 committee are convinced privately cautiously, and there was -- the cover-up id about. and you have d.h.s. on top of the secret service, and that's not a coincidence. and as far as they're concerned. i think they're going to keep pushing on this hard. and the other part is this didn't come out until we had the cass i had hutchinson testimony -- cassidy hutchinson testimony. the secret service, there were officials in the secret service pushing back on that. but then this -- this issue of the deleted text messages and everything they came out as a result of that. they -- you know, hutson's

veracity was challenged. her -- you know, trump attacked her and the republicans attacked her. and now we have what -- what appears to be a really troubling incident. and the i.g.'s at both d.h.s. and -- yamiche: secret service. john: yeah. they knew about this for months. yamiche: it's incredible. to think about it. and jonhan, i want to come to you and we have about a minute left here. you have written this book. you understand the origins of the lies of the trump election and what he's been talking about. and i wonder if you could talk just a little bit about what you learned in reporting that book an as we've seen trump world starting to go into the grand jury with the d.o.j. and starting to cooperate even more with the january 6 committee? jonathan: yeah, trump throughout his presidency had a remarkable ability to bend others to his will. he really hijacked the republican party and media to help amplify his lies big or small and certainly the biggest one of all about this election. and we're seeing here how people in the government would be willing to shatter norms, break

regulations in order to help him hang on to power. that he had abused the power of the presidency to try to stay in office and those around him were willing to help. and now it seems like as john said, real talk of a cover-up to hide what they did. the impact and the residence of the big lie continues. and will through this election and next. it's going to be a defining issue whether trump is on the ballot or not. yamiche: and ayesha, 10 seconds. trump also talked about just transforming -- and it animated the group and the culture wars, and only a couple of seconds left. tell me a little bit about your thoughts there as we end this conversation. ayesha: well, a lot of people are seeing this fight against the lgbtq community as a way to make people seem like the other in a way to rally their base against a changing society. and you see people like donald trump using that message of really -- yamiche: certainly.

ayesha: to go against the lgbtq community. yamiche: an important point. thank you all for being here. thanks to our panelists for joining us and for sharing your reporting. i hope you have some relaxing weekend plans. know i'm going to be watching and listening to the new beyonce album on repeat all weekend long. also don't forget to stick around for the "washington week" extra. i'll talk to jonathan about his new book "the big lie." find it on our web site, facebook and youtube and before we go, tomorrow on pbs news weekend jeff bennett speaks to a texas woman caught up in the state's abortion laws after suffering a miscarriage. thank you for joining us. good night from washington. announcer: corporate funding for "washington week" is provided b- >> for 25 years, consumer cellular has been offering no contract wireless plans designed to help people do more of what they like. our u.s.-based customer service team can help find a plan that fits you. to learn more, visit consumercellular.tv. announcer: additional funding is provided by koo and patricia yuen through the yuen foundation, committed to

bridging cultural differences in our communities, sandra and karl delay-magnuson, rose hirschel and andy shreeves, robert and susan rosenbaum, the corporation for public broadcasting and by contributions to your pbs station from viewers like you. thank you. [captioning performed by the national captioning institute, which is responsible for its caption content and accuracy. visit ncicap.org]

clayton davis: have you ever wished you could hang out with some of your favorite hollywood stars? anne hathaway: hello, jeremy rong. jeremy strong: anne hathaway. anne: nice to see you. jeremy: good to see you. clayton: the most buzzed about actors in the world are sitting down for real conversations. christina ricci: i wanted to do things more the way that things are being done now. clayton: with anne hathaway and jeremy strong, christina ricci and sydney sweeney, quinta brunson and adam scott, plus josh brolin and josh brolin. ♪♪♪ clayton: welcome to "variety studio actors on actors." i'm clayton davis. elizabeth wagmeister: and i'm elizabeth wagmeister. years ago, everyone wanted to be a movie star, but today hollywood a listers are running to television. in this episode, the biggest tv stars in the world are sitting down to discuss eir craft. two classically trained theater actors,